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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Validation of MCDS by comparison of predicted with experimental velocity distribution functions in rarefied normal shocks

Velocity distribution functions in normal shock waves in argon and helium are calculated using Monte Carlo direct simulation. These are compared with experimental results for argon at M = 7.18 and for helium at M = 1.59 and 20. For both argon and helium, the variable-hard-sphere (VHS) model is used for the elastic scattering cross section, with the velocity dependence derived from a viscosity-temperature power-law relationship in the way normally used by Bird (1976).

Pham-Van-diep, Gerald C.↗

Analysis of rotational nonequilibrium in standing shock waves of nitrogen

The one-dimensional standing shock wave is the simplest flow in which nonequilibrium effects may be considered. The direct-simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC) has yielded excellent agreement with results reported for the case of nitrogen flow at Mach 1.7. The DSMC technique is presently used in conjunction with a variable energy transfer probability model in which energy is transferred between the translational and rotational modes via the Borgnakke-Larsen (1975) phenomenological model.

Boyd, Iain D.↗

Estimating pixel-level uncertainty in ocean color retrievals from MODIS

The spectral distribution of marine remote sensing reflectance, R(rs), is the fundamental measurement of ocean color science, from which a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column can be derived. Estimation of uncertainty in these derived properties is thus dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R(rs) (u(c)(R(rs))) at each pixel. Uncertainty in R(rs), in turn, is dependent on the propagation of various uncertainty sources through the R(rs) retrieval process, namely the atmospheric correction (AC). A derivative-based method for uncertainty propagation is established here to calculate the pixel-level uncertainty in R(rs), as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) AC algorithm and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. The approach is then applied to measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, with uncertainty sources including instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty. The uc(Rrs) is verified by comparison with statistical analysis of coincident retrievals from MODIS and in situ Rrs measurements, and our approach performs well in most cases. Based on analysis of an example 8-day global products, we also show that relative uncertainty in R(rs) at blue bands has a similar spatial pattern to the derived concentration of the phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and around 7.3%, 17.0%, and 35.2% of all clear water pixels (chl-a ≤ 0.1 mg/cu.m) with valid u(c)(R(rs)) have a relative uncertainty ≤ 5% at bands 412 nm, 443 nm, and 488 nm respectively, which is a common goal of ocean color retrievals for clear waters. While the analysis shows that u(c)(R(rs)) calculated from our derivative-based method is reasonable, some issues need further investigation, including improved knowledge of forward model uncertainty and systematic uncertainty in instrument calibration.

Pixel-level uncertainty↗

Integrated Medical Model Verification, Validation, and Credibility

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) was designed to forecast relative changes for a specified set of crew health and mission success risk metrics by using a probabilistic (stochastic process) model based on historical data, cohort data, and subject matter expert opinion. A probabilistic approach is taken since exact (deterministic) results would not appropriately reflect the uncertainty in the IMM inputs. Once the IMM was conceptualized, a plan was needed to rigorously assess input information, framework and code, and output results of the IMM, and ensure that end user requests and requirements were considered during all stages of model development and implementation. METHODS: In 2008, the IMM team developed a comprehensive verification and validation (VV) plan, which specified internal and external review criteria encompassing 1) verification of data and IMM structure to ensure proper implementation of the IMM, 2) several validation techniques to confirm that the simulation capability of the IMM appropriately represents occurrences and consequences of medical conditions during space missions, and 3) credibility processes to develop user confidence in the information derived from the IMM. When the NASA-STD-7009 (7009) was published, the IMM team updated their verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) project plan to meet 7009 requirements and include 7009 tools in reporting VVC status of the IMM. RESULTS: IMM VVC updates are compiled recurrently and include 7009 Compliance and Credibility matrices, IMM VV Plan status, and a synopsis of any changes or updates to the IMM during the reporting period. Reporting tools have evolved over the lifetime of the IMM project to better communicate VVC status. This has included refining original 7009 methodology with augmentation from the NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document. End user requests and requirements are being satisfied as evidenced by ISS Program acceptance of IMM risk forecasts, transition to an operational model and simulation tool, and completion of service requests from a broad end user consortium including Operations, Science and Technology Planning, and Exploration Planning. CONCLUSIONS: The VVC approach established by the IMM project of combining the IMM VV Plan with 7009 requirements is comprehensive and includes the involvement of end users at every stage in IMM evolution. Methods and techniques used to quantify the VVC status of the IMM have not only received approval from the local NASA community but have also garnered recognition by other federal agencies seeking to develop similar guidelines in the medical modeling community.

Validation↗

Meteorite Material Model for Structural Properties

To assess the threat posed by an asteroid entering Earth's atmosphere, one must predict if, when, and how it fragments during entry. A comprehensive understanding of the asteroid material properties is needed to achieve this objective. At present, the meteorite material found on earth are the only objects from an entering asteroid that can be used as representative material and be tested inside a laboratory setting. Due to complex petrology, it is technically challenging and expensive to obtain reliable material properties by means of laboratory test for a family of meteorites. In order to circumvent this challenge, meteorite unit models are developed to determine the effective material properties including Youngs modulus, compressive and tensile strengths and Poissons ratio, that in turn would help deduce the properties of asteroids. The meteorite unit is a representative volume that accounts for diverse minerals, porosity, cracks and matrix composition. The Youngs Modulus and Poissons Ratio in the meteorite units are calculated by performing several hundreds of Monte-Carlo simulations by randomly distributing the various phases inside these units. Once these values are obtained, cracks are introduced in these meteorite units. The size, orientation and distribution of cracks are derived by extensive CT-scans and visual scans of various meteorites from the same family. Subsequently, simulations are performed to attain stress-strain relations, strength and effective modulus values in the presence of these cracks. The meteorite unit models are presented for H, L and LL ordinary chondrites, as well as for terrestrial basalt. In the case of the latter, data from the simulations is compared with experimental data to validate the methodology. These material models will be subsequently used in fragmentation modeling of full scale asteroids.

Meteorite↗

The study of PDF turbulence models in combustion

In combustion computations, it is known that the predictions of chemical reaction rates are poor if conventional turbulence models are used. The probability density function (pdf) method seems to be the only alternative that uses local instantaneous values of the temperature, density, etc., in predicting chemical reaction rates, and thus is the only viable approach for more accurate turbulent combustion calculations. The fact that the pdf equation has a very large dimensionality renders finite difference schemes extremely demanding on computer memories and thus impractical. A logical alternative is the Monte Carlo scheme. Since CFD has a certain maturity as well as acceptance, it seems that the use of a combined CFD and Monte Carlo scheme is more beneficial. Therefore, a scheme is chosen that uses a conventional CFD flow solver in calculating the flow field properties such as velocity, pressure, etc., while the chemical reaction part is solved using a Monte Carlo scheme. The discharge of a heated turbulent plane jet into quiescent air was studied. Experimental data for this problem shows that when the temperature difference between the jet and the surrounding air is small, buoyancy effect can be neglected and the temperature can be treated as a passive scalar. The fact that jet flows have a self-similar solution lends convenience in the modeling study. Futhermore, the existence of experimental data for turbulent shear stress and temperature variance make the case ideal for the testing of pdf models wherein these values can be directly evaluated.

Hsu, Andrew T.↗

The computer simulation of automobile use patterns for defining battery requirements for electric cars

The modeling process of a complex system, based on the calculation and optimization of the system parameters, is complicated in that some parameters can be expressed only as probability distributions. In the present paper, a Monte Carlo technique was used to determine the daily range requirements of an electric road vehicle in the United States from probability distributions of trip lengths, frequencies, and average annual mileage data. The analysis shows that a daily range of 82 miles meets to 95% of the car-owner requirements at all times with the exception of long vacation trips. Further, it is shown that the requirement of a daily range of 82 miles can be met by a (intermediate-level) battery technology characterized by an energy density of 30 to 50 Watt-hours per pound. Candidate batteries in this class are nickel-zinc, nickel-iron, and iron-air. These results imply that long-term research goals for battery systems should be focused on lower cost and longer service life, rather than on higher energy densities

Schwartz, H.-J.↗

Monte Carlo Investigation of Trajectories

Monte Carlo Investigation of Trajectory Operations and Requirements (MONITOR) program performs spacecraft mission maneuver simulations for craft mission maneuver simulations for geosynchronous single-maneuver, and cometencounter trajectories. Used primarily to study geosynchronous missions and model trajectories of satellites deployed by Space Shuttle. Program written in FORTRAN IV.

Glass, A. B.↗

Large-cell Monte Carlo renormalization of irreversible growth processes

Monte Carlo sampling is applied to a recently formulated direct-cell renormalization method for irreversible, disorderly growth processes. Large-cell Monte Carlo renormalization is carried out for various nonequilibrium problems based on the formulation dealing with relative probabilities. Specifically, the method is demonstrated by application to the 'true' self-avoiding walk and the Eden model of growing animals for d = 2, 3, and 4 and to the invasion percolation problem for d = 2 and 3. The results are asymptotically in agreement with expectations; however, unexpected complications arise, suggesting the possibility of crossovers, and in any case, demonstrating the danger of using small cells alone, because of the very slow convergence as the cell size b is extrapolated to infinity. The difficulty of applying the present method to the diffusion-limited-aggregation model, is commented on.

Nakanishi, H.↗

On the transport of ions released in the magnetotail by the AMPTE-IRM satellite

The Ba and Li ions releasd into the magnetotail in spring 1985 by the AMPTE-IRM satellite were not observed subsequently in the inner magnetosphere with the AMPTE-CCE satellite. These results were studied by using a Monte Carlo code to compute the transport of the ions. For each release several hundred ion guiding-center trajectories were computed under simulated magnetospheric conditions, using the Tsyganenko-Usmanov (1982) magnetic-field model and the Millstone Hill convection-electric-field model (Oliver et al., 1983). The corotation and convection electric fields were mapped to altitudes above the ionosphere, assuming the magnetic-field lines to be equipotentials. The initial conditions of the ions, at the times at which the ions were picked up by the electric field, were estimated by taking into consideration the release conditions and the early-time collective effects. The results indicate that the Ba(+) ions were not observed because the CCE satellite was not along the drift paths of the ions, and the Li(+) ions were not observed because their fluxes at the satellite were too low.

Cladis, J. B.↗

Development of a Space Radiation Monte Carlo Computer Simulation

The ultimate purpose of this effort is to undertake the development of a computer simulation of the radiation environment encountered in spacecraft which is based upon the Monte Carlo technique. The current plan is to adapt and modify a Monte Carlo calculation code known as FLUKA, which is presently used in high energy and heavy ion physics, to simulate the radiation environment present in spacecraft during missions. The initial effort would be directed towards modeling the MIR and Space Shuttle environments, but the long range goal is to develop a program for the accurate prediction of the radiation environment likely to be encountered on future planned endeavors such as the Space Station, a Lunar Return Mission, or a Mars Mission. The longer the mission, especially those which will not have the shielding protection of the earth's magnetic field, the more critical the radiation threat will be. The ultimate goal of this research is to produce a code that will be useful to mission planners and engineers who need to have detailed projections of radiation exposures at specified locations within the spacecraft and for either specific times during the mission or integrated over the entire mission. In concert with the development of the simulation, it is desired to integrate it with a state-of-the-art interactive 3-D graphics-capable analysis package known as ROOT, to allow easy investigation and visualization of the results. The efforts reported on here include the initial development of the program and the demonstration of the efficacy of the technique through a model simulation of the MIR environment. This information was used to write a proposal to obtain follow-on permanent funding for this project.

Pinsky, Lawrence S.↗

Limits to randomness in paleobiologic models: the case of Phanerozoic species diversity

The question of how random, or unconstrained, paleobiologic models should be is examined with a case study: Signor's (1982, 1985) inverse calculation of levels of marine species diversity through the Phanerozoic. His calculation involved an ingenious model that estimated species numbers and species abundances in the world oceans of the past by correcting known numbers of fossil species for variations in sedimentary rocks available for sampling and in effort paleontologists might devote to sampling. The model proves robust to changes in possible shapes of species-abundance distributions, but it is sensitive to alterations in the assumption that paleontologists collect fossils at random. If it is assumed that ease of collecting varies with age of sediment (with the Cenozoic offering easy sampling) or that paleontologists tend to seek out rarer fossils, results of the inverse calculation change. In particular, the magnitude of the calculated Cenozoic diversity increase always declines from the factor of about seven as originally reported to something considerably smaller. This leaves open the problem of the magnitude of Cenozoic increase in marine species diversity, awaiting better empirical data and, perhaps, more exacting models, random or otherwise.

Non-NASA Center↗

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.↗

Influence of a fat layer on the near infrared spectra of human muscle: quantitative analysis based on two-layered Monte Carlo simulations and phantom experiments

The influence of fat thickness on the diffuse reflectance spectra of muscle in the near infrared (NIR) region is studied by Monte Carlo simulations of a two-layer structure and with phantom experiments. A polynomial relationship was established between the fat thickness and the detected diffuse reflectance. The influence of a range of optical coefficients (absorption and reduced scattering) for fat and muscle over the known range of human physiological values was also investigated. Subject-to-subject variation in the fat optical coefficients and thickness can be ignored if the fat thickness is less than 5 mm. A method was proposed to correct the fat thickness influence. c2005 Optical Society of America.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

Simulation of Mission Phases

This position with the Simulation and Graphics Branch (ER7) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) provided an introduction to vehicle hardware, mission planning, and simulation design. ER7 supports engineering analysis and flight crew training by providing high-fidelity, real-time graphical simulations in the Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) lab. The primary project assigned by NASA mentor and SES lab manager, Meghan Daley, was to develop a graphical simulation of the rendezvous, proximity operations, and docking (RPOD) phases of flight. The simulation is to include a generic crew/cargo transportation vehicle and a target object in low-Earth orbit (LEO). Various capsule, winged, and lifting body vehicles as well as historical RPOD methods were evaluated during the project analysis phase. JSC core mission to support the International Space Station (ISS), Commercial Crew Program (CCP), and Human Space Flight (HSF) influenced the project specifications. The simulation is characterized as a 30 meter +V Bar and/or -R Bar approach to the target object's docking station. The ISS was selected as the target object and the international Low Impact Docking System (iLIDS) was selected as the docking mechanism. The location of the target object's docking station corresponds with the RPOD methods identified. The simulation design focuses on Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) system architecture models with station keeping and telemetry data processing capabilities. The optical and inertial sensors, reaction control system thrusters, and the docking mechanism selected were based on CCP vehicle manufacturer's current and proposed technologies. A significant amount of independent study and tutorial completion was required for this project. Multiple primary source materials were accessed using the NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS) and reference textbooks were borrowed from the JSC Main Library and International Space Station Library. The Trick Simulation Environment and User Training Materials version 2013.0 release was used to complete the Trick tutorial. Multiple network privilege and repository permission requests were required in order to access previous simulation models. The project was also an introduction to computer programming and the Linux operating system. Basic C++ and Python syntax was used during the completion of the Trick tutorial. Trick's engineering analysis and Monte Carlo simulation capabilities were observed and basic space mission planning procedures were applied in the conceptual design phase. Multiple professional development opportunities were completed in addition to project duties during this internship through the System for Administration, Training, and Education Resources for NASA (SATERN). Topics include: JSC Risk Management Workshop, CCP Risk Management, Basic Radiation Safety Training, X-Ray Radiation Safety, Basic Laser Safety, JSC Export Control, ISS RISE Ambassador, Basic SharePoint 2013, Space Nutrition and Biochemistry, and JSC Personal Protective Equipment. Additionally, this internship afforded the opportunity for formal project presentation and public speaking practice. This was my first experience at a NASA center. After completing this internship I have a much clearer understanding of certain aspects of the agency's processes and procedures, as well as a deeper appreciation from spaceflight simulation design and testing. I will continue to improve my technical skills so that I may have another opportunity to return to NASA and Johnson Space Center.

Carlstrom, Nicholas Mercury↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

Models of the hard X-ray spectrum of AM Herculis and implications for the accretion rate

Phenomenological fits to the hard X-ray spectrum of AM Herculis left unexplained the high equivalent width (0.8 + or - 0.1 keV) of Fe K alpha emission. A purely thermal origin implies a much steeper spectrum than was observed. With Monte Carlo calculations, scattering and fluorescent line production in a cold or partially ionized accretion column of hard X-rays emitted at the base were investigated. The strength of the iron emission and the flat spectral continuum can be explained by the effects of fluorescence and absorption within the accretion column and the surface of the white dwarf on a thermal X-ray spectrum. Thomson optical depths across the column in the range 0.2 to 0.7 are acceptable. The accretion rate and gravitational power can be deduced from the optical depth across the column, if the column size is known, and, together with the observed hard X-ray and polarized light luminosities, imply a lower limit for the luminosity in the UV to soft X-ray range, for which the observations give model-dependent values. Estimates of the column size differ by a factor of 40. Small spot sizes and low luminosities would be consistent with the soft component being the expected reprocessed bremsstrahlung and cyclotron radiation, although the constraint of matching the spectrum confines one to solutions with fluxes exceeding 20% the Eddington limits.

Swank, J. H.↗

Monte Carlo applications to acoustical field solutions

The Monte Carlo technique is proposed for the determination of the acoustical pressure-time history at chosen points in a partial enclosure, the central idea of this technique being the tracing of acoustical rays. A statistical model is formulated and an algorithm for pressure is developed, the conformity of which is examined by two approaches and is shown to give the known results. The concepts that are developed are applied to the determination of the transient field due to a sound source in a homogeneous medium in a rectangular enclosure with perfect reflecting walls, and the results are compared with those presented by Mintzer based on the Laplace transform approach, as well as with a normal mode solution.

Haviland, J. K.↗