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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A New Model for Simulating the Imbibition of a Wetting-Phase Fluid in a Matrix-Fracture Dual Connectivity System

The imbibition experiment is an effective approach for measuring petrophysical properties of porous media, with many such experiments performed over the past decade. Quite some empirical, analytical, and numerical models have been developed to simulate spontaneous imbibition of the wetting phase fluid into porous media, but limitations still exist. In previous studies, the imbibition process has been considered to give a piston-like displacement or the porous medium modeled as multiply-sized pores linked with bonds; both approaches fail to yield comprehensive results due to their neglect of the presence of irregular fractures or nonuniform flow paths through the matrix. By building a numerical model for simulating laboratory-scale experimental data, we performed imbibition tests on several fractured Barnett Shale samples having fractures either parallel ( P ) or transverse ( T ) to the bedding plane and used MATLAB to build a new numerical model by combining the imbibition process in fractures and the matrix using concepts from percolation theory. The experimental data show that the rocks with P -direction fractures have a more steady increase of imbibition rates than the case of T -direction one. As the shale matrix with low pore connectivity hampers the upward water movement, the imbibition rate of shales with T -direction fractures will decrease suddenly after the bottom layer in contact with water is saturated during the initial period. This wetting phase movement (WPM) model can simulate 3D porous media with 2D fractures. The rate of imbibition by fractured porous media is associated with physical parameters such as porosity and fracture distribution (e.g., the number and angle of fractures). Using Monte Carlo methods, we examined fracture parameters and predicted elapsed time and cumulative water imbibition, for the Barnett Shale samples. The results show that the rate of imbibed water mass is sensitive to the number of fractures directly connected to water source, and the connectivity between two neighboring grid cells is a key parameter for the wetting-front progression. The findings of this study can help to better understand the imbibition process with multiple influencing processes and factors in fractured-matrix rocks. Although the experiments, data simulation, and prediction results are based only on Barnett Shale samples, the model is readily applicable to imbibition tests of other fractured rocks to show the spatial and temporal behavior during a dynamic imbibition process that are not easily captured experimentally.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

invspheroids6.f

Program invspheroid6.f inverts time domain measurements of normalized magnetic dipole polarizabilities in axial and transverse directions, for the parameters of a conducting magnetic (ferrous) spheroid: axial and transverse diameters, relative magnetic permeability and conductivity. It uses the sphere/spheroid approximation of J.T. Smith and H.F. Morrison, 2006, "Approximating spheroid inductive responses using spheres" (Geophysics, vol 71, G21-G25). It estimates uncertainty in the inverted parameters, based on a Monte Carlo method using multiple inversions with additional noise added to the data. The transmitter time function may be a step function pulse, a square wave pulse, or a half sine of given duration , at a given repetition rate. Any subset of spheroid parameters may be held fixes while solving for the others.

Smith, Torquil↗
DOE OSTI2018

QMCPACK

QMCPACK is an open source C++ code that runs across multiple high performance computing architectures including accelerators. It's main function is to implement several Quantum Monte Carlo method for solving the many-body Schrodinger equation.

Lopez, MatthewG↗
DOE OSTI2021

Billion-Core Monte Carlo

The copyrightable material is a set of software whose goal is to explore the use of Monte Carlo methods at extreme processor counts. This will include application software, libraries, middleware, various system software, and possibly compilers and translators

Pakin, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2021

PyOECP: A flexible open-source software for the measurement and modeling of the dielectric spectrum from the reflection coefficient

We present PyOECP, a Python-based flexible open-source software for estimating and modeling the complex permittivity obtained from the open-ended coaxial probe (OECP) technique. The transformation of the measured reflection coefficient to complex permittivity is performed based on two different models, including the capacitance model and the antenna model. The software library contains dielectric spectra of common reference liquids, which can be used to transform the reflection coefficient into the dielectric spectra. Several Python routines that are commonly employed (e.g., SciPy and NumPy) are only required so that the users can alter the software structure depending on their needs. The modeling algorithm exploits the Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the data regression. The discrete relaxation models can be built by a proper combination of well-known relaxation models. In addition to these models, the electrode polarization, which is a common measurement artifact for interpreting the dielectric spectra, can be incorporated in the modeling algorithm. A continuous relaxation model, which solves the Fredholm integral equation of the first kind (a mathematically ill-posed problem) is also included.

Yoon, Tae-Jun↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fission Induced Electromagnetic Response

The FIER (Fission Induced Electromagnetic Response) code is a C++ program designed to predict delayed gamma-ray spectra following fission. Given a fissioning isotope and irradiation scheme, FIER will determine the decay chains for each fission fragment and their daughters. Each product’s time-dependent population is calculated using an analytical solution to the Bateman equations that guide decay transmutation. These populations are then used to calculate the number of gamma-ray emissions for a given counting scheme. A Monte Carlo method is also available to determine the uncertainty of the fission product populations and delayed gamma-ray intensities based on the uncertainties on the input nuclear data.

Matthews, EricFrancis [University of California - ↗
DOE OSTI2025

ORNL/MLMC

Multi-Level Monte Carlo Methods in Chemical Applications with Lennard-Jones Potentials and other Landscapes with Isolated Singularities

Bocchinfuso, Alberto (0000000260634131)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Software For Advanced Large-scale Analysis Of Magnetic Confinement For Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (salamander)

As magnetic confinement fusion energy gains traction internationally to enable abundant energy production, designing components for fusion systems is a pressing challenge. During the planned lifetime of a fusion device, components evolve in extreme environments and must withstand large, repeated thermal loads and bombardment by 14 MeV neutrons, plasma ions, and neutral particles (deuterium, tritium, and helium), corrosive conditions, etc. All these physical processes take place simultaneously, interact in intricate ways, and impose important constraints that can affect performance. Experimental data is rare and costly to obtain, making design particularly challenging. Predictive computational frameworks must be an integral part of an accelerated and cost-effective design process by modeling fusion system performance in simulated environments. To better understand component degradation and operational impacts on their performance, the Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering & Research (SALAMANDER) is designed as an open-source, fully integrated, multiphysics, multiscale, NQA-1 compliant framework facilitating 3D, high-fidelity fusion system modeling. To that end, SALAMANDER is a MOOSE-based framework, and therefore leverages MOOSE upstream libraries such as PETSc and libMesh to deliver sophisticated finite element, finite volume, and nonlinear solver technology for fusion energy simulations. SALAMANDER couples MOOSE physics module capabilities—such as thermal hydraulics, heat conduction, Navier-Stokes, and thermomechanics—with tritium transport via TMAP8, neutronics via Cardinal, and nascent particle-in-cell capabilities. Direct simulation Monte Carlo methods will be used to address neutral transport near the walls. By coupling all these physics in an integrated application, SALAMANDER will enable high-fidelity modeling of irradiation levels and plasma exposure conditions of plasma facing components and their impact on heat and tritium distributions, as well as the resulting mechanical constraints experienced by the plasma facing components and performance of blanket systems. Furthermore, SALAMANDER will be particularly suited for engineering studies thanks to the stochastic tool module readily available in MOOSE, allowing for extended uncertainty quantification and risk analysis studies. It is also able to use computer-aided design (CAD) meshes to model complex geometries, which is indispensable for fusion systems. SALAMANDER therefore supports design, safety, engineering, and research projects for magnetic confinement fusion systems

Simon, Pierre-Clement [Idaho National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

FLOW BATTERY COST AND COMMERCIALIZATION TOOL (FlowBaCC) v.1.0

The Flow Battery Cost and Commercialization Tool (FlowBaCC) is a python-based framework used to project the costs and commercialization timelines for redox flow batteries. FlowBaCC combines learning curves for component costs and performance with adoption curves for market diffusion to project future system costs. The tool uses the bottom-up, spreadsheet-based Battery Performance and Cost Model for Flow Batteries (BatPaC-Flow) as the engine to translate learning curve inputs into full system costs. FlowBaCC provides capital costs and levelized costs of energy storage. The tool enables scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification (via grid and Monte Carlo methods).

Fu, Xiaoxu [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Arg↗
DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change information for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop reported herein aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Space to Air High-Altitude Region Adjoint Neutron Transport

Neutrons from an atmospheric nuclear explosion can be detected by sensors in orbit. Current tools for characterizing the neutron energy spectrum assume a known source and use forward transport to recreate the detector response. In realistic scenarios the true source is unknown, making this an inefficient, iterative approach. In contrast, the adjoint approach directly solves for the source spectrum, enabling source reconstruction. The time–energy fluence at the satellite and adjoint transport equation allow a Monte Carlo method to characterize the neutron source’s energy spectrum directly in a new model: the Space to High-Altitude Region Adjoint (SAHARA) model. A new adjoint source event estimator was developed in SAHARA to find feasible solutions to the neutron transport problem given the constraints of the adjoint environment. This work explores SAHARA’s development and performance for mono-energetic and continuous neutron energy sources. In general, the identified spectra were shifted towards energies approximately 5% lower than the true source spectra, but SAHARA was able to capture the correct spectral shapes. Continuous energy sources, including real-world sources Fat Man and Little Boy, resulted in identifiable spectra that could have been produced by the same distribution as the true sources as demonstrated by two-dimensional (2D) Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests.

LaMere, Zachary W.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Triplet p + ip pairing correlations in the doped Kane-Mele-Hubbard model: A quantum Monte Carlo study

By using the constrained-phase quantum Monte Carlo method, we performed a systematic study of the pairing correlations in the ground state of the doped Kane-Mele-Hubbard model on a honeycomb lattice. We find that pairing correlations with d + id symmetry dominate close to half filling, but pairing correlations with p+ip symmetry dominate as hole doping moves the system below three-quarters filling. We correlate these behaviors of the pairing correlations with the topology of the Fermi surfaces of the non-interacting problem. We also find that the effective pairing correlation is enhanced greatly as the interaction increases, and these superconducting correlations are robust against varying the spin-orbit coupling strength. Finally, our numerical results suggest a possible way to realize spin triplet superconductivity in doped honeycomb-like materials or ultracold atoms in optical traps.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Boundary-induced classical generalized Gibbs ensemble with angular momentum

We investigate how confinement geometry leads to the emergence of a Generalized Gibbs Ensemble (GGE) in classical systems. Unlike the standard Gibbs ensemble, the GGE includes additional conserved quantities, such as angular momentum, that arise from boundary-induced symmetries. Using analytical arguments based on the maximum entropy principle, we show that circular boundaries preserve angular momentum and drive the system toward a chiral, non-ergodic GGE that violates time-reversal symmetry. This ensemble differs fundamentally from the Gibbs case, producing near-boundary condensation and revealing how geometry alone can alter thermal equilibration. To quantify these effects, we introduce an order parameter measuring deviations from Gibbs behavior and demonstrate that conventional Monte Carlo methods must incorporate angular momentum conservation under such conditions. Our study highlights how geometric constraints shape non-equilibrium statistical ensembles and lead to subtle departures from the Bohr-van Leeuwen theorem. These predictions are validated through detailed simulations of confined classical hard-disk gases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Enhancements to the MCNP6 background source

The particle transport code MCNP has been used to produce a background radiation data file on a worldwide grid that can easily be sampled as a source in the code. Location-dependent cosmic showers were modeled by Monte Carlo methods to produce the resulting neutron and photon background flux at 2054 locations around Earth. An improved galactic-cosmic-ray feature was used to model the source term as well as data from multiple sources to model the transport environment through atmosphere, soil, and seawater. A new elevation scaling feature was also added to the code to increase the accuracy of the cosmic neutron background for user locations with off-grid elevations. Furthermore, benchmarking has shown the neutron integral flux values to be within experimental error.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reactor physics benchmark of Westinghouse PWR core design suite for high burnup/high enrichment fuel - Part 2: 2D and 3D core simulations

Westinghouse has performed a comprehensive set of code-to-code benchmark comparisons to corroborate application of its state-of-the-art NEXUS-based code suite to high burnup and high enrichment (HB/HE) fueled PWR core design and reload analysis. The benchmark consisted of a progression in complexity from modeling single 2D pin cells, through 2D lattices and finally to whole core 2D and then 3D scenarios. The accompanying paper (Part 1) presented the results for a variety of pin cell and lattices representative of high energy cores and established the ability of the MPACT code to accurately match the predictions of the Monte-Carlo code SERPENT2 such that the former may be used as a surrogate reference code in spatially complex whole core modeling applications where using Monte-Carlo methods is somewhat impractical. This paper focuses on comparisons at the whole core level using a representative high power density 3-loop Westinghouse NSSS core operating for 24 month cycles employing high enriched fuel with use of combined burnable absorbers to hold down excess reactivity. The evolution of the core reactivity and power distribution characteristics throughout the cycle are calculated using the Westinghouse NEXUS-based code suite and compared to the results using MPACT. The results of this whole core benchmark confirm the conclusions that the Westinghouse code suite accurately models HB/HE fuel designs, with very good prediction of core reactivity and power distribution throughout the cycle. The industry can be confident that the NEXUS code system can be deployed to support PWR reload safety and operational analyses for cores featuring HB/HE fuel and 24-month cycle operation. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Scientific discovery in a model-centric framework: Reproducibility, innovation, and epistemic diversity

Consistent confirmations obtained independently of each other lend credibility to a scientific result. We refer to results satisfying this consistency as reproducible and assume that reproducibility is a desirable property of scientific discovery. Yet seemingly science also progresses despite irreproducible results, indicating that the relationship between reproducibility and other desirable properties of scientific discovery is not well understood. These properties include early discovery of truth, persistence on truth once it is discovered, and time spent on truth in a long-term scientific inquiry. We build a mathematical model of scientific discovery that presents a viable framework to study its desirable properties including reproducibility. In this framework, we assume that scientists adopt a model-centric approach to discover the true model generating data in a stochastic process of scientific discovery. We analyze the properties of this process using Markov chain theory, Monte Carlo methods, and agent-based modeling. We show that the scientific process may not converge to truth even if scientific results are reproducible and that irreproducible results do not necessarily imply untrue results. The proportion of different research strategies represented in the scientific population, scientists’ choice of methodology, the complexity of truth, and the strength of signal contribute to this counter-intuitive finding. Important insights include that innovative research speeds up the discovery of scientific truth by facilitating the exploration of model space and epistemic diversity optimizes across desirable properties of scientific discovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to 89,90 Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of 90 Sr and 89 Sr intake to humans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical model for social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 epidemic

Social distancing has led to a “flattening of the curve” in many states across the U.S. This is part of a novel, massive, global social experiment which has served to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs. Hence it is important to be able to forecast hospitalizations reasonably accurately. We propose on phenomenological grounds a random walk/generalized diffusion equation which incorporates the effect of social distancing to describe the temporal evolution of the probability of having a given number of hospitalizations. The probability density function is log-normal in the number of hospitalizations, which is useful in describing pandemics where the number of hospitalizations is very high. We used this insight and data to make forecasts for states using Monte Carlo methods. Back testing validates our approach, which yields good results about a week into the future. States are beginning to reopen at the time of submission of this paper and our forecasts indicate possible precursors of increased hospitalizations. However, the trends we forecast for hospitalizations as well as infections thus far show moderate growth. Additionally we studied the reproducibility in New York (Italian strain) and California (Wuhan strain). We find that even if there is a difference in the transmission of the two strains, social distancing has been able to control the progression of COVID 19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗