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NASA NTRS1999

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1998

Final Report

This grant was made to fund two accepted proposals to observe with the ASCA satellite: (1) Debunking the myth of two-temperature coronae of active stars, and (2) Dynamic coronae of dMe stars. We obtained the requested observations and have now completed two papers that will be published in the Astrophysical Journal. The RS CVn binary star UX Ari was observed for 14 hours with all four detectors onboard the ASCA satellite. The X-ray emission was at a constant, quiescent level during the first 12 hours, after which time a powerful flare with a peak luminosity of 1.4 x 10(exp 32) ergs/s started. The flare was observed until shortly after its peak. We present a spectral and temporal analysis of the UX Ari observations and analyze the data with a two-ribbon flare model including estimates for cooling losses. A time-dependent reconstruction of the emission measure (EM) distribution shows that two separate plasma components evolve during the flare (one being identified with the quiescent EM). Most of the flare EM reaches temperatures between 50 MK and 100 MK or more. Magnetic confinement requires the loop arcade to be geometrically large, with length scales on the order of one stellar radius. The electron densities inferred from the model decrease from initial values around 10(exp 12)/cc early in the flare to about 10(exp 11)/cc at the flare peak. The best-fit models require surface magnetic field strengths of a few hundred G, compatible with the maximum photospheric fields expected from equipartition. The flare parameters imply a (conductive and radiative) cooling loss time of less than one hour at flare peak. The elemental abundances increase significantly during the flare rise, with the abundances of the low-FIP elements Fe, Mg, Si, and Ni typically increasing to higher levels than the high-FIP elements such as S or Ne. The Fe abundance increases from (17 +/- 4)% of the solar photospheric value during quiescence up to (89 +/- 18)% at flare peak. A fractionation process that occurs during the chromospheric evaporation phase may selectively enrich low-FIP elements as in the solar corona; alternatively, the chromospheric evaporation may itself bring metal-rich plasma into the metal-poor corona.

Linsky, Jeffrey L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project: In Partnership With the NCCS

Researchers with NASA's Season-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) refer to different types of memory when running models on NCCS computers: the computer memory required for their models and the memory of the atmosphere or the ocean. Because of the atmosphere's chaotic nature, its memory is short. For weather predictions, the initial information taken from atmospheric observations has a limited useful life. Currently, there is no way to take observations, initialize an atmosphere model, integrate ahead in time, and make an accurate weather forecast beyond about 2 weeks. After that, the system becomes chaotic. What conditions could be used to make predictions beyond 2 weeks? If not conditions in the atmosphere, then the memory must be found somewhere else. That place is in the oceans. Although most changes in the atmosphere vary on a short timescale, the weather being a prime example, some important large atmospheric climate variations occur over much longer timescales-month s, years, or decades. NSIPP is interested specifically in those phenomena that occur over timescales of several months to a few years, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant of these.

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NASA NTRS2013

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day-of-launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers to include NASA's Launch Services Program and NASA's Ground Systems Development and Operations Program. They currently do not have the capability to display and overlay profiles of upper-level observations and numerical weather prediction model forecasts. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a tool in the form of a graphical user interface (GUI) that will allow them to plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) 50 MHz tropospheric wind profiling radar, KSC Shuttle Landing Facility 915 MHz boundary layer wind profiling radar and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Processing System (AMPS) radiosondes, and then overlay forecast wind profiles from the model point data including the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, Rapid Refresh (RAP) model and Global Forecast System (GFS) model to assess the performance of these models. The AMU developed an Excel-based tool that provides an objective method for the LWOs to compare the model-forecast upper-level winds to the KSC wind profiling radars and CCAFS AMPS observations to assess the model potential to accurately forecast changes in the upperlevel profile through the launch count. The AMU wrote Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) scripts to automatically retrieve model point data for CCAFS (XMR) from the Iowa State University Archive Data Server (http://mtarchive.qeol.iastate.edu) and the 50 MHz, 915 MHz and AMPS observations from the NASA/KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive web site (http://trmm.ksc.nasa.gov). The AMU then developed code in Excel VBA to automatically ingest and format the observations and model point data in Excel to ready the data for generating Excel charts for the LWO's. The resulting charts allow the LWOs to independently initialize the three models 0-hour forecasts against the observations to determine which is the best performing model and then overlay the model forecasts on time-matched observations during the launch countdown to further assess the model performance and forecasts. This paper will demonstrate integration of observed and predicted atmospheric conditions into a decision support tool and demonstrate how the GUI is implemented in operations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for LBNF Beam Diagnostics

This paper focuses on developing a machine learning model for predicting initial beam parameters for the Long Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) beamline using downstream muon monitor data. Parameters such as proton beam position on target, sigma on target, focusing horn current, and focusing horn tilt are parameters we anticipate to be predictable based on the muon monitors. Uncertainty in initial beam condition measurements are a major contributor to uncertainty in downstream flux, and over operation time beam misalignment can occur [1]. A machine learning model has promise to detect anomalies along the beamline based on discrepancies between predicted configurations and measured configurations, and thus can expedite error detection and handling. A PyTorch neural network is defined, trained, and tested. The developed model currently does not provide reliable predictions, with the lowest loss being 0.09.. Further steps to improve the model’s accuracy are discussed, as well as future plans to detect anomalous beam conditions using a digital twin.

O'Brien, Bridget [Fermilab]↗

NASA NTRS1973

Application of digital computer APU modeling techniques to control system design.

Study of the required controls for a H2-O2 auxiliary power unit (APU) technology program for the Space Shuttle. A steady-state system digital computer program was prepared and used to optimize initial system design. Analytical models of each system component were included. The program was used to solve a nineteen-dimensional problem, and then time-dependent differential equations were added to the computer program to simulate transient APU system and control. Some system parameters were considered quasi-steady-state, and others were treated as differential variables. The dynamic control analysis proceeded from initial ideal control modeling (which considered one control function and assumed the others to be ideal), stepwise through the system (adding control functions), until all of the control functions and their interactions were considered. In this way, the adequacy of the final control design over the required wide range of APU operating conditions was established.

Bailey, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Non-Linear Cosmological Power Spectra in Real and Redshift Space

We present an expression for the non-linear evolution of the cosmological power spectrum based on Lagrangian trajectories. This is simplified using the Zel'dovich approximation to trace particle displacements, assuming Gaussian initial conditions. The model is found to exhibit the transfer of power from large to small scales expected in self-gravitating fields. Some exact solutions are found for power-law initial spectra. We have extended this analysis into red-shift space and found a solution for the non-linear, anisotropic redshift-space power spectrum in the limit of plane-parallel redshift distortions. The quadrupole-to-monopole ratio is calculated for the case of power-law initial spectra. We find that the shape of this ratio depends on the shape of the initial spectrum, but when scaled to linear theory depends only weakly on the redshift-space distortion parameter, beta. The point of zero-crossing of the quadrupole, kappa(sub o), is found to obey a simple scaling relation and we calculate this scale in the Zel'dovich approximation. This model is found to be in good agreement with a series of N-body simulations on scales down to the zero-crossing of the quadrupole, although the wavenumber at zero-crossing is underestimated. These results are applied to the quadrupole-to-monopole ratio found in the merged QDOT plus 1.2-Jy-IRAS redshift survey. Using a likelihood technique we have estimated that the distortion parameter is constrained to be beta greater than 0.5 at the 95 percent level. Our results are fairly insensitive to the local primordial spectral slope, but the likelihood analysis suggests n = -2 un the translinear regime. The zero-crossing scale of the quadrupole is k(sub 0) = 0.5 +/- 0.1 h Mpc(exp -1) and from this we infer that the amplitude of clustering is sigma(sub 8) = 0.7 +/- 0.05. We suggest that the success of this model is due to non-linear redshift-space effects arising from infall on to caustic and is not dominated by virialized cluster cores. The latter should start to dominate on scales below the zero-crossing of the quadrupole, where our model breaks down.

Taylor, A. N.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An experimental, theoretical, and kinetic modeling study of post-flame oxidation of ammonia

The post -flame oxidation rate of ammonia was investigated in a novel atmospheric pressure flow reactor at temperatures of 1280 ± 16 K and as a function of residence time and mixture composition (1-10% O 2 , dry and moist). The experimental results, as well as selected data from literature, were analyzed using an updated detailed chemical kinetic model. The medium temperature, very lean conditions enhance the importance of reactions of the nitroxyl (HNO) intermediate. High-level theory was used to calculate the rate constant for HNO + NH 2 , indicating that this step is significantly faster than values used in literature. Furthermore, a trajectory based approach was used to determine collision efficiencies for selected bath gases for HNO + M. The experimental results show that the NH 3 oxidation rate increases with temperature and O 2 concentration, while the presence of water vapor slightly inhibits reaction. Formation of NO and N 2 O was strongly promoted at higher levels of O 2 . Modeling results agreed well with the measurements, except at the lowest level of O 2 . The predicted oxidation rate of NH 3 was shown to result from a delicate balance between chain branching and terminating steps involving NH 2 , H 2 NO, and HNO. Recent theoretical work on reactions of these species by Klippenstein and coworkers and Stagni et al. was instrumental in improving modeling predictions. After initiation, NO reached a pseudo -steady-state level, where the pathways to NO were largely balanced by the NH 2 + NO reaction. Nitric oxide was partly oxidized to NO 2 , with the NH 2 + NO 2 reaction responsible for most of the N 2 O formation. Novelty and significance statement: This study provides the first detailed kinetic analysis of the lean postflame oxidation of ammonia, based on time -resolved flow reactor data in a novel reactor. In addition to the post -flame oxidation rate of ammonia, data for formation of NO and N 2 O were compared with modeling predictions. The medium temperature, very lean conditions enhance the importance of reactions of the HNO and H 2 NO intermediates. Inclusion in the model of results from recent high-level theoretical work, including present calculations for HNO + NH 2 and HNO + M, was crucial for capturing the observed behavior. It is argued that the post -initiation steady-state NH 3 oxidation rates constitute important data for model validation, along with ignition delays and laminar flame speeds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1988

Liquid rocket booster integration study. Volume 4: Reviews and presentation material

Liquid rocket booster integration study is presented. Volume 4 contains materials presented at the MSFC/JSC/KSC Integrated Reviews and Working Group Sessions, and the Progress Reviews presented to the KSC Study Manager. The following subject areas are covered: initial impact assessment; conflicts with the on-going STS mission; access to the LRB at the PAD; the activation schedule; transition requirements; cost methodology; cost modelling approach; and initial life cycle cost.

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NASA NTRS2015

Simulation of Wake Vortex Radiometric Detection via Jet Exhaust Proxy

This paper describes an analysis of the potential of an airborne hyperspectral imaging IR instrument to infer wake vortices via turbine jet exhaust as a proxy. The goal was to determine the requirements for an imaging spectrometer or radiometer to effectively detect the exhaust plume, and by inference, the location of the wake vortices. The effort examines the gas spectroscopy of the various major constituents of turbine jet exhaust and their contributions to the modeled detectable radiance. Initially, a theoretical analysis of wake vortex proxy detection by thermal radiation was realized in a series of simulations. The first stage used the SLAB plume model to simulate turbine jet exhaust plume characteristics, including exhaust gas transport dynamics and concentrations. The second stage used these plume characteristics as input to the Line By Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) to simulate responses from both an imaging IR hyperspectral spectrometer or radiometer. These numerical simulations generated thermal imagery that was compared with previously reported wake vortex temperature data. This research is a continuation of an effort to specify the requirements for an imaging IR spectrometer or radiometer to make wake vortex measurements. Results of the two-stage simulation will be reported, including instrument specifications for wake vortex thermal detection. These results will be compared with previously reported results for IR imaging spectrometer performance.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We perform a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth System model simulations to assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Eleven models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 280 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over East Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assignment and calibration of relative permeability by hydrostratigraphic units for multiphase flow analysis, case study: CO 2 -EOR operations at the Farnsworth Unit, Texas

Included in the most critical factors for geological CO 2 storage site screening, selection, and operation is effective simulations of multiphase flow and transport. Relative permeability is probably the greatest source of potential uncertainty in multiphase flow simulation, second only to intrinsic permeability heterogeneity. The specific relative permeability relationship assigned greatly impacts forecasts of CO 2 trapping mechanisms, phase behavior, and long-term plume movement. A primary goal of this study is to evaluate the impacts and implications of different methods of assigning relative permeability relationships for CO 2 -EOR model forecasts. Most simulation studies published in the literature base selection of relative permeability functions on the geologic formation or rock type alone. In this study, we initially implemented reservoir model grids with previously-identified hydrostratigraphic units based on porosity and permeability relationship of the Morrow ‘B’ Sandstone, then assigned relative permeability functions for those hydrostratigraphic units. Specific, constrained relative permeability relationships were created and assigned to each hydrostratigraphic unit using petrophysical data and Mercury Intrusion Capillary Pressure (MICP) measurements, from core samples of each hydrostratigraphic unit. Results of forward simulations with the newly-calibrated models will be compared to those of previous models as well as to simulation results for a range of different relative permeability relationships. The study site is the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in the northeast Texas Panhandle, an active CO 2 -EOR operation. The target formation is the Morrow ‘B’ Sandstone, a clastic formation composed of medium to course sands.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction

The role of radiation-dynamics interaction in regional numerical weather prediction of severe storm environment and mesoscale convective systems over the United States is researched. Based upon the earlier numerical model simulation experiments, it is believed that such interaction can have a profound impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of regional weather systems. The research will be carried out using real-data model forecast experiments performed on the Cray-X/MP computer. The forecasting system to be used is a comprehensive mesoscale prediction system which includes analysis and initialization, the dynamic model, and the post-forecast diagnosis codes. The model physics are currently undergoing many improvements in parameterizing radiation processes in the model atmosphere. The forecast experiments in conjunction with in-depth model verification and diagnosis are aimed at a quantitative understanding of the interaction between atmospheric radiation and regional dynamical processes in mesoscale models as well as in nature. Thus, significant advances in regional numerical weather prediction can be made. Results shall also provide valuable information for observational designs in the area of remote sensing techniques to study the characteristics of air-land thermal interaction and moist processes under various atmospheric conditions.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Weather Nowcasting of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety

There is a growing concern for the health and safety of commercial aircrew and passengers due to their exposure to ionizing radiation with high linear energy transfer (LET), particularly at high latitudes. The International Commission of Radiobiological Protection (ICRP), the EPA, and the FAA consider the crews of commercial aircraft as radiation workers. During solar energetic particle (SEP) events, radiation exposure can exceed annual limits, and the number of serious health effects is expected to be quite high if precautions are not taken. There is a need for a capability to monitor the real-time, global background radiations levels, from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), at commercial airline altitudes and to provide analytical input for airline operations decisions for altering flight paths and altitudes for the mitigation and reduction of radiation exposure levels during a SEP event. The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model is new initiative to provide a global, real-time radiation dosimetry package for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. The NAIRAS model brings to bear the best available suite of Sun-Earth observations and models for simulating the atmospheric ionizing radiation environment. Observations are utilized from ground (neutron monitors), from the atmosphere (the METO analysis), and from space (NASA/ACE and NOAA/GOES). Atmospheric observations provide the overhead shielding information and the ground- and space-based observations provide boundary conditions on the GCR and SEP energy flux distributions for transport and dosimetry simulations. Dose rates are calculated using the parametric AIR (Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation) model and the physics-based HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) code. Empirical models of the near-Earth radiation environment (GCR/SEP energy flux distributions and geomagnetic cut-off rigidity) are benchmarked against the physics-based CMIT (Coupled Magnetosphere- Ionosphere-Thermosphere) and SEP-trajectory models.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

LaValley, Brian W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

An Iron-Rain Model for Core Formation on Asteroid 4 Vesta

Asteroid 4 Vesta is differentiated into a crust, mantle, and core, as demonstrated by studies of the eucrite and diogenite meteorites and by data from NASA's Dawn spacecraft. Most models for the differentiation and thermal evolution of Vesta assume that the metal phase completely melts within 20 degrees of the eutectic temperature, well before the onset of silicate melting. In such a model, core formation initially happens by Darcy flow, but this is an inefficient process for liquid metal and solid silicate. However, the likely chemical composition of Vesta, similar to H chondrites with perhaps some CM or CV chondrite, has 13-16 weight percent S. For such compositions, metal-sulfide melting will not be complete until a temperature of at least 1350 degrees Centigrade. The silicate solidus for Vesta's composition is between 1100 and 1150 degrees Centigrade, and thus metal and silicate melting must have substantially overlapped in time on Vesta. In this chemically and physically more likely view of Vesta's evolution, metal sulfide drops will sink by Stokes flow through the partially molten silicate magma ocean in a process that can be envisioned as "iron rain". Measurements of eucrites show that moderately siderophile elements such as Ni, Mo, and W reached chemical equilibrium between the metal and silicate phases, which is an important test for any Vesta differentiation model. The equilibration time is a function of the initial metal grain size, which we take to be 25-45 microns based on recent measurements of H6 chondrites. For these sizes and reasonable silicate magma viscosities, equilibration occurs after a fall distance of just a few meters through the magma ocean. Although metal drops may grow in size by merger with other drops, which increases their settling velocities and decreases the total core formation time, the short equilibration distance ensures that the moderately siderophile elements will reach chemical equilibrium between metal and silicate before metal drop merger becomes important. In this model, there must be at least 30 percent melting of the silicate phase when metal melting is complete, corresponding to a crust thickness of at least 30 kilometers on Vesta, consistent with Dawn gravity observations. Greater degrees of silicate melting and a correspondingly thicker crust are possible if Vesta accreted sufficiently rapidly.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Engineering infinite-range SU($\textit{n}$) interactions with spin-orbit-coupled fermions in an optical lattice

Here, we study multilevel fermions in an optical lattice described by the Hubbard model with on-site SU($\textit{n}$) -symmetric interactions. We show that in an appropriate parameter regime this system can be mapped onto a spin model with all-to-all SU($\textit{n}$)-symmetric couplings. Raman pulses that address internal spin states modify the atomic dispersion relation and induce spin-orbit coupling, which can act as a synthetic inhomogeneous magnetic field that competes with the SU($\textit{n}$) exchange interactions. We investigate the mean-field dynamical phase diagram of the resulting model as a function of $\textit{n}$ and different initial configurations that are accessible with Raman pulses. Consistent with previous studies for $\textit{n}$ = 2 , we find that for some initial states the spin model exhibits two distinct dynamical phases that obey simple scaling relations with $\textit{n}$. Moreover, for $\textit{n}$ > 2 we find that dynamical behavior can be highly sensitive to initial intraspin coherences. Our predictions are readily testable in current experiments with ultracold alkaline-earth-metal(-like) atoms.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

High speed PLIF study of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability upon re-shock

The Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) of a twice-shocked gas interface is researched using high-speed planar-laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) in the Wisconsin Shock Tube Laboratory’s vertical shock tube. The initial condition (IC) is a shear layer with broadband diffuse perturbations at the interface between a helium-acetone mixture and argon. This IC is accelerated by a shock of nominal strength M = 1.8, and then accelerated again by the transmitted shock that reflects off the end wall of the tube. An estimate of the light gas mole fraction is extracted from high-speed imaging using an iterative process that accounts for the nonlinear temperature dependence of the acetone’s fluorescence quantum yield (FQY) and absorption cross-section. A vorticity deposition model for the initial growth rate after reshock is compared with the Mikaelian model for re-shock. Previously used in literature, the number of generations is shown to naturally arise from a normalisation of the scalar transport equation. A self-similar analysis is then further performed using the mole fraction data to explore the evolution of the RMI after reshock and the higher order moments of the light gas mole fraction are compared with a proposed model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗