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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the Four-Dimensional Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation with Self-Consistent Regional Background Error Covariance for Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts

The feasibility of a hurricane initialization framework based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based four-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-4DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system for the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) model is evaluated in this study. The system considers the temporal evolution of error covariances via the use of four-dimensional ensemble perturbations that are provided by high-resolution, self-consistent HWRF ensemble forecasts. It is different from the configuration of the GSI-based three-dimensional ensemble-variational (GSI-3DEnVar) hybrid data assimilation system, similar to that used in the operational HWRF, which employs background error covariances provided by coarser-resolution global ensembles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation system. In addition, our proposed initialization framework discards the empirical intensity correction in the vortex initialization package that is employed by the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework in operational HWRF. Data assimilation and numerical simulation experiments for Hurricanes Joaquin (2015), Patricia (2015), and Matthew (2016) are conducted during their intensity changes. The impacts of two initialization frameworks on the HWRF analyses and forecasts are compared. It is found that GSI-4DEnVar leads to a reduction in track, minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and maximum surface wind (MSW) forecast errors in all of the HWRF simulations, compared with the GSI-3DEnVar initialization framework. With assimilating high-resolution observations within the hurricane inner-core region, GSI-4DEnVar can produce the initial hurricane intensity reasonably well without the empirical vortex intensity correction. Further diagnoses with Hurricane Joaquin indicate that GSI-4DEnVar can significantly alleviate the imbalances in the initial conditions and enhance the performance of the data assimilation and subsequent hurricane intensity and precipitation forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

tih_vqe [SWR-23-32]

This software supports the paper, "Exploring the scaling limitations of the variational quantum eigensolver with the bond dissociation of hydride diatomic molecules," published in the International Journal of Quantum Chemistry, whose abstract is as follows: Materials simulations involving strongly correlated electrons pose fundamental challenges to state-of-the-art electronic structure methods but are hypothesized to be the ideal use case for quantum computing. To date, no quantum computer has simulated a molecule of a size and complexity relevant to real-world applications, despite the fact that the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm can predict chemically accurate total energies. Nevertheless, because of the many applications of moderately-sized, strongly correlated systems, such as molecular catalysts, the successful use of the VQE stands as an important waypoint in the advancement toward useful chemical modeling on near-term quantum processors. In this paper, we take a significant step in this direction. We lay out the steps, write, and run parallel code for an (emulated) quantum computer to compute the bond dissociation curves of the TiH, LiH, NaH, and KH diatomic hydride molecules using VQE. TiH was chosen as a relatively simple chemical system that incorporates d orbitals and strong electron correlation. Because current VQE implementations on existing quantum hardware are limited by qubit error rates, the number of qubits available, and the allowable gate depth, recent studies have focused on chemical systems involving s and p block elements. Through VQE + UCCSD calculations of TiH, we evaluate the near-term feasibility of modeling a molecule with d-orbitals on real quantum hardware. We demonstrate that the inclusion of d-orbitals and the use of the UCCSD ansatz, which are both necessary to capture the correct TiH physics, dramatically increase the cost of this problem. We estimate the approximate error rates necessary to model TiH on current quantum computing hardware using VQE+UCCSD and show them to likely be prohibitive until significant improvements in hardware and error correction algorithms are available.

Graf, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models for Resilience Design Patterns

Resilience plays an important role in supercomputers by providing correct and efficient operation in case of faults, errors, and failures. Resilience design patterns offer blueprints for effectively applying resilience technologies. Prior work focused on developing initial efficiency and performance models for resilience design patterns. This paper extends it by (1) describing performance, reliability, and availability models for all structural resilience design patterns, (2) providing more detailed models that include flowcharts and state diagrams, and (3) introducing the Resilience Design Pattern Modeling (RDPM) tool that calculates and plots the performance, reliability, and availability metrics of individual patterns and pattern combinations.

Kumar, Mohit↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification of graph convolution neural network models of evolving processes

The application of neural network models to scientific machine learning tasks has proliferated in recent years. In particular, neural networks have proved to be adept at modeling processes with spatial–temporal complexity. Nevertheless, these highly parameterized models have garnered skepticism in their ability to produce outputs with quantified error bounds over the regimes of interest. Hence there is a need to find uncertainty quantification methods that are suitable for neural networks. In this work we present comparisons of the parametric uncertainty quantification of neural networks modeling complex spatial–temporal processes with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Stein variational gradient descent and its projected variant. Specifically we apply these methods to graph convolutional neural network models of evolving systems modeled with recurrent neural network and neural ordinary differential equations architectures. We show that Stein variational inference is a viable alternative to Monte Carlo methods with some clear advantages for complex neural network models. For our exemplars, Stein variational interference gave similar pushed forward uncertainty profiles through time compared to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, albeit with generally more generous variance. As a result, projected Stein variational gradient descent also produced similar uncertainty profiles to the non-projected counterpart, but large reductions in the active weight space were confounded by the stability of the neural network predictions and the convoluted likelihood landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the scaling limitations of the variational quantum eigensolver with the bond dissociation of hydride diatomic molecules

Abstract Materials simulations involving strongly correlated electrons pose fundamental challenges to state‐of‐the‐art electronic structure methods but are hypothesized to be the ideal use case for quantum computing algorithms. To date, no quantum computer has simulated a molecule of a size and complexity relevant to real‐world applications, despite the fact that the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) algorithm can predict chemically accurate total energies. Nevertheless, because of the many applications of moderately sized, strongly correlated systems, such as molecular catalysts, the successful use of the VQE stands as an important waypoint in the advancement toward useful chemical modeling on near‐term quantum processors. In this paper, we take a significant step in this direction. We lay out the steps, write, and run parallel code for an (emulated) quantum computer to compute the bond dissociation curves of the TiH, LiH, NaH, and KH diatomic hydride molecules using the VQE. TiH was chosen as a relatively simple chemical system that incorporates d orbitals and strong electron correlation. Because current VQE implementations on existing quantum hardware are limited by qubit error rates, the number of qubits available, and the allowable gate depth, recent studies using it have focused on chemical systems involving s and p block elements. Through VQE + UCCSD calculations of TiH, we evaluate the near‐term feasibility of modeling a molecule with d‐orbitals on real quantum hardware. We demonstrate that the inclusion of d‐orbitals and the use of the UCCSD ansatz, which are both necessary to capture the correct TiH physics, dramatically increase the cost of this problem. We estimate the approximate error rates necessary to model TiH on current quantum computing hardware using VQE + UCCSD and show them to likely be prohibitive until significant improvements in hardware and error correction algorithms are available.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 3. Retrieving Optical Source Altitude

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect and geolocate lightning by recording rapid changes in cloud top illumination. While lightning locations can be determined to within a pixel on the GLM imaging array, these instruments are not individually able to natively report lightning altitude. It has previously been shown that thunderclouds are illuminated differently based on the altitude of the optical source. In this study, we examine how altitude information can be extracted from the spatial distributions of GLM energy recorded from each optical pulse. We match GLM “groups” with Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) source data that accurately report the 3‐D positions of coincident Radio‐Frequency (RF) emitters. We then use machine learning methods to predict the mean LMA source altitudes matched to GLM groups using metrics from the optical data that describe the amplitude, breadth, and texture of the group spatial energy distribution. The resulting model can predict the LMA mean source altitude from GLM group data with a median absolute error of <1.5 km, which is sufficient to determine the location of the charge layer where the optical energy originated. This model is able to capture changes to the source altitude distribution in response to convective processes in the thunderstorm, and the GLM predictions can reveal the vertical structure of individual flashes ‐ enabling 3‐D flash geolocation with GLM for the first time. Future work will account for differences in thunderstorm charge/precipitation structures and viewing angle across the GLM Field of View.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Generalizable and Efficient Circuit Topology Design: A Graph-Transformer-based Surrogate Model with Curriculum Learning

Unlike circuit parameter and sizing optimizations, the automated design of analog circuit topologies poses significant challenges for learning-based approaches. One challenge arises from the combinatorial growth of the topology space with circuit size, which limits the topology optimization efficiency. Moreover, traditional circuit evaluation methods are time-consuming, while the presence of data discontinuity in the topology space makes the accurate prediction of circuit performance exceptionally difficult for unseen topologies. To tackle these challenges, we design a novel Graph-Transformer-based Network (GTN) as the surrogate model for circuit evaluation, offering a substantial acceleration in the speed of circuit topology optimization without sacrificing performance. Our GTN model architecture is designed to embed voltage changes in circuit loops and current flows in connected devices, enabling accurate performance predictions for circuits with unseen topologies. To address the cold start problem when scaling GTN to large-scale circuits, we further introduce a curriculum learning strategy that progressively trains GTN from small-scale to large-scale circuits. This approach enables the model to first learn fundamental physical principles from simpler topologies and gradually adapt to complex configurations, effectively bridging the circuit complexity gap and improving prediction accuracy. Taking the power converter circuit design as an experimental task, our GTN model significantly outperforms an analytical approach and baseline methods directly utilizing graph neural networks. Furthermore, GTN achieves less than 5% relative error and 196× speed-up compared with high-fidelity simulation. Notably, our GTN surrogate model empowers an automatic circuit design framework to discover circuits of comparable quality to those identified through high-fidelity simulation while reducing the time required by up to 98.2%. With curriculum learning, the enhanced GTN achieves a 51% improvement for performance prediction of large-scale circuits compared to the GTN model without this strategy. These advancements establish GTN as a scalable framework for automated analog circuit design across varying circuit complexity levels.

Lu, Haoshu [New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Solutions for Real-Time Phasor Modeling of Large-scale Distribution Network with High PV Penetration

The conversion process of a practical large-scale feeder data from a quasi-static time series (OpenDSS) model into a real-time phasor model (ePHASORSIM in Opal-RT) is discussed in the paper. The process is implemented using an open source Python software. Previous reported implementations for the conversion process lead to several errors when applied to a larger-scale system such as the one considered here. Hence in this work, we describe the common issues in this conversion and propose a customized solution to enhance the efficiency of the conversion and reduce the complexity in the process. A quantitative validation of the enhanced conversion process is presented in this work using an actual high PV penetration feeder model that consists of 2230 buses, and using actual load and PV profile data. After a detailed analysis, this customized conversion software will be made available as an open source tool and is expected to be helpful for researchers who want to pursue a similar conversion. Solutions to various observed issues such as identifying the lines due to islanded network, representation of full impedance model of transformer/lines as sequential models, complexity in the representation of single phase buses/lines as three phase buses/lines to make it compatible with the simulator platform are discussed. Comparison of power flow and time series simulation results obtained from both OpenDSS and ePHASORsim models show very low errors, validating the accuracy of the proposed conversion process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-size and cluster dynamics modeling of intra-granular fission gas bubbles in UO 2

For this work, we perform simulations of intra-granular fission gas bubble evolution in UO 2 using both a relatively simple, computationally inexpensive single-size model and a detailed cluster dynamics model. Simulations encompass 36 experimental cases from 4 different databases, covering various temperature and burnup levels. We systematically compare results from the two models to each other and to post-irradiation experimental data of bubble average size and number density. Overall, the model-to-model comparisons reveal an excellent agreement across the set of simulations. This outcome indicates that, in spite of the underlying assumptions, the single-size model provides a good approximation of the complex physical behavior that is more rigorously described by the cluster dynamics model. Qualitatively, both models reproduce the trends of the experimental data with temperature and burnup correctly. Quantitatively, calculated results are either in good agreement with the data or within errors that appear consistent with the inherent uncertainties. Moreover, for the single-size model, we demonstrate and assess a multiscale approach whereby values for the fission gas atom diffusion coefficient from separate atomistic calculations are used. Systematic comparisons to experimental data point out a credible accuracy of the multiscale model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lossy checkpoint compression in full waveform inversion: a case study with ZFPv0.5.5 and the overthrust model

This paper proposes a new method that combines checkpointing methods with error-controlled lossy compression for large-scale high-performance full-waveform inversion (FWI), an inverse problem commonly used in geophysical exploration. This combination can significantly reduce data movement, allowing a reduction in run time as well as peak memory. In the exascale computing era, frequent data transfer (e.g., memory bandwidth, PCIe bandwidth for GPUs, or network) is the performance bottleneck rather than the peak FLOPS of the processing unit. Like many other adjoint-based optimization problems, FWI is costly in terms of the number of floating-point operations, large memory footprint during backpropagation, and data transfer overheads. Past work for adjoint methods has developed checkpointing methods that reduce the peak memory requirements during backpropagation at the cost of additional floating-point computations. Combining this traditional checkpointing with error-controlled lossy compression, we explore the three-way tradeoff between memory, precision, and time to solution. We investigate how approximation errors introduced by lossy compression of the forward solution impact the objective function gradient and final inverted solution. Empirical results from these numerical experiments indicate that high lossy-compression rates (compression factors ranging up to 100) have a relatively minor impact on convergence rates and the quality of the final solution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Study of self-interaction errors in density functional predictions of dipole polarizabilities and ionization energies of water clusters using Perdew-Zunger and locally scaled self-interaction corrected methods

Here, we studied the effects of self-interaction error (SIE) on the static dipole polarizabilities of water clusters modelled with three increasingly sophisticated, non-empirical density functional approximations (DFAs), viz. the local spin density approximation (LDA), the Perdew-Burke-Ernzherof (PBE) generalized-gradient approximation (GGA), and the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) meta-GGA, using the Perdew-Zunger self-interaction-correction (PZ-SIC) energy functional in the Fermi-Lowdin orbital SIC (FLO-SIC) framework. Our results show that while all three DFAs overestimate the cluster polarizabilities, the description systematically improves from LDA to PBE to SCAN. The self-correlation free SCAN predicts polarizabilities quite accurately with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.58 Bohr 3 with respect to coupled cluster singles and doubles (CCSD) values. Removing SIE using PZ-SIC correctly reduces the DFA polarizabilities, but over-corrects, resulting in underestimated polarizabilities in SIC-LDA, -PBE, and -SCAN. Finally, we applied a recently proposed local-scaling SIC (LSIC) method using a quasi self-consistent scheme and using the kinetic energy density ratio as an iso-orbital indicator. The results show that the LSIC polarizabilities are in excellent agreement with mean absolute error of 0.08 Bohr 3 for LSIC-LDA and 0.06 Bohr 3 for LSIC-PBE with most recent CCSD polarizabilities. Likewise, the ionization energy estimates as an absolute of highest occupied energy eigenvalue predicted by LSIC are also in excellent agreement with CCSD(T) ionization energies with MAE of 0.4 eV for LSIC-LDA and 0.04 eV for LSIC-PBE. The LSIC-LDA predictions of ionization energies are comparable to the reported GW ionization energies while the LSIC-PBE ionization energies are more accurate than reported GW results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of New Additions to OLI Software in Predicting Mercuric and Mercurous Species in Liquid Waste Operations

Speciation of mercury during the pretreatment steps of tank waste processing is critical to successful mercury removal prior to vitrification during Liquid Waste Operations (LWO) at SRS. OLI software has been used to predict mercury speciation and activity throughout LWO. The OLI software operates based on a thermodynamic framework called the Mixed Solvent Electrolyte (MSE) framework. The MSE framework allows prediction in theoretically infinitely dilute to concentrated mixtures (e.g., purely solute solutions). Before modification to the MSE framework databanks, certain critical mercury species were missing in the MSE databank, and some thermodynamic data needed to be updated for the OLI software to accurately predict mercury chemical species in SRS waste tanks. To better reflect streams across LWO, new mercury species were integrated into the MSE database. To evaluate the changes to the OLI MSE framework per the Technical Task Request (TTR) and the Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP), waste stream compositions from Tanks 38, 43, and Tank 50 decontaminated salt solution (DSS) were used as model inputs. Models were developed and executed using both the old and new databases. Compositional analyses from caustic Tank 50 DSS and caustic Tanks 38 and 43 were used as the input streams. These streams represent the most comprehensive chemical data sets where both mercury and tank constituents were measured together. Results for Tank 50 DSS predict HgO as the predominant species in both databases. Both methyl and dimethyl Hg species are present when the new database is ‘on’ and are not predicted with the new database turned ‘off’. The new database predicts a greater amount of HgO and a greater fraction of it in the solid phase. Pourbaix diagrams (potential vs. pH) generated for each Tank 50 DSS were identical regardless of which database was used. Elemental Hg and HgO were predicted in the water stable region under basic conditions. Tanks 38 and 43 follow similar trends as the Tank 50 DSS models. Unlike Tanks 38 and 50 DSS, the Tank 43 Pourbaix plot shows a region of stability for an aqueous HgOHCO3 - species between approximately pH 7-11. In all streams, when MeHg+ is included in the inputs, the new database predicts aqueous MeHgOH as the dominant species. If elemental or dimethyl mercury is in the waste stream, the new database model predicts they are unchanged and remain in those states and quantities. Additionally, the total mercury values are reported for both the measured input data and the OLI output data for all considered tanks. The summary indicates that the percentage error between the measured and calculated values is less than 1% in all cases The reconciliations and generation of the Pourbaix diagrams for Tank 50 DSS took approximately ten times longer with the new database ‘on’. In addition, over the course of that time, models with the new database ‘on’ were more likely to crash or display an error. Some modest performance improvements were noted when modeling with an i7 processor versus an i5. An example error is found in Appendix A. Furthermore, Appendix B provides V&V for two chemical systems analyzed with the OLI software, results were satisfactory. It is recommended to utilize the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in future Savannah River Mission Completion applications of OLI to represent pseudo steady-state. Furthermore, the integration and utilization of the new databases (i.e., HCO.ddb and SR-Hg.ddb) in modeling applications (e.g., Aspen) is also recommended.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Methodology for Simulating Supercritical CO2 Heat Transfer Experiments Using Machine Learning Models

To support the growth of supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycles in the energy industry, this study seeks to train a machine learning model to mirror experimental data to predict new heat transfer data. To do this experimental data was amassed, one preliminary set comprised of 16 test results, and an expanded version comprised of 38 test results. With the goal of predicting experimental apparatus temperatures and pressures, several iterations of models were tested investigating the impact of model hyper-parameters, data inclusion, and data pre-processing on model performance. A total of 15 variations cumulatively of Gaussian Process Regressors, Gradient Boosting Regressors, and Multi-Layer Perceptrons were trained and validated on the preliminary set, and the best algorithm of each class was re-trained on the expanded set. These were compared based on test/train R^2 , test/train mean absolute error (MAE), and validation MAE, to identify the successfulness of these models. It was shown temperatures could be predicted within just a few degrees, showing the potential of this approach. Future research has been identified with approaches to improve pressure and temperature predictions going forward.

Grabowski, Owen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection in Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Trajectories Using LSTM Autoencoder and Gaussian Mixture Model

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) technology has the potential to transform the transportation system. Although these new technologies have many advantages, the implementation raises significant concerns regarding safety, security, and privacy. Anomalies in sensor data caused by errors or cyberattacks can cause severe accidents. To address the issue, this study proposed an innovative anomaly detection algorithm, namely the LSTM Autoencoder with Gaussian Mixture Model (LAGMM). This model supports anomalous CAV trajectory detection in the real-time leveraging communication capabilities of CAV sensors. The LSTM Autoencoder is applied to generate low-rank representations and reconstruct errors for each input data point, while the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is employed for its strength in density estimation. The proposed model was jointly optimized for the LSTM Autoencoder and GMM simultaneously. The study utilizes realistic CAV data from a platooning experiment conducted for Cooperative Automated Research Mobility Applications (CARMAs). The experiment findings indicate that the proposed LAGMM approach enhances detection accuracy by 3% and precision by 6.4% compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods, suggesting a significant improvement in the field.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnesium isotopes of the bulk solar wind from Genesis diamond-like carbon films

–NASA’s Genesis Mission returned solar wind (SW) to the Earth for analysis to derive the composition of the solar photosphere from solar material. SW analyses control the precision of the derived solar compositions, but their ultimate accuracy is limited by the theoretical or empirical models of fractionation due to SW formation. Mg isotopes are “ground truth” for these models since, except for CAIs, planetary materials have a uniform Mg isotopic composition (within ≤1&) so any significant isotopic fractionation of SW Mg is primarily that of SW formation and subsequent acceleration through the corona. This study analyzed Mg isotopes in a bulk SW diamond-like carbon (DLC) film on silicon collector returned by the Genesis Mission. A novel data reduction technique was required to account for variable ion yield and instrumental mass fractionation (IMF) in the DLC. The resulting SW Mg fractionation relative to the DSM-3 laboratory standard was ( 14.4&, 30.2&) (4.1&, 5.5&), where the uncertainty is 2σ SE of the data combined with a 2.5& (total) error in the IMF determination. Two of the SW fractionation models considered generally agreed with our data. Their possible ramifications are discussed for O isotopes based on the CAI nebular composition of McKeegan et al. (2011).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗