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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Comparative Energetics of Various Membrane Distillation Configurations and Guidelines for Design and Operation

This paper presents a comparative performance study of single-stage desalination processes with major configurations of membrane distillation (MD) modules. MD modules covered in this study are (a) direct contact MD (DCMD), (b) vacuum MD (VMD), (c) sweeping gas MD (SGMD), and (d) air gap MD (AGMD). MD-based desalination processes are simulated with rigorous theoretical MD models supported by molecular thermodynamic property models for the accurate calculation of performance metrics. The performance metrics considered in MD systems are permeate flux and energy efficiency, i.e., gained output ratio (GOR). A general criterion is established to determine the critical length of these four MDs (at fixed width) for the feasible operation of desalination in a wide range of feed salinities. The length of DCMD and VMD is restricted by the feed salinity and permeate flux, respectively, while relatively large AGMD and SGMD are allowed. The sensitivity of GOR flux with respect to permeate conditions is investigated for different MD configurations. AGMD outperforms other configurations in terms of energy efficiency, while VMD reveals the highest permeate production. With larger MD modules, utilization of thermal energy supplied by the hot feed for evaporation is in the order of VMD > AGMD > SGMD > DCMD. Simulation results highlight that energy efficiency of the overall desalination process relies on the efficient recovery of spent for evaporation, suggesting potential improvement in energy efficiency for VMD-based desalination.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Accounting for Training Data Error in Machine Learning Applied to Earth Observations

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Performance Study of Distance-Weighting Approach with Loopy Sum-Product Algorithm for Multi-Object Tracking in Clutter

In this paper, we explore the performance of the distance-weighting probabilistic data association (DWPDA) approach in conjunction with the loopy sum-product algorithm (LSPA) for tracking multiple objects in clutter. First, we discuss the problem of data association (DA), which is to infer the correspondence between targets and measurements. DA plays an important role when tracking multiple targets using measurements of uncertain origin. Second, we describe three methods of data association: probabilistic data association (PDA), joint probabilistic data association (JPDA), and LSPA. We then apply these three DA methods for tracking multiple crossing targets in cluttered environments, e.g., radar detection with false alarms and missed detections. We are interested in two performance metrics: tracking accuracy and computation time. LSPA is known to be superior to PDA in terms of the former and to dominate JPDA in terms of the latter. Last, we consider an additional DA method that is a modification of PDA by incorporating a weighting scheme based on distances between position estimates and measurements. This distance-weighting approach, when combined with PDA, has been shown to enhance the tracking accuracy of PDA without significant change in the computation burden. Since PDA constitutes a crucial building block of LSPA, we hypothesize that DWPDA, when integrated with LSPA, would perform better under the two performance metrics above. Contrary to expectations, the distance-weighting approach does not enhance the performance of LSPA, whether in terms of tracking accuracy or computation time.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Graphical Optimization of Spectral Shift Reconstructions for Optical Backscatter Reflectometry

Optical backscatter reflectometry (OBR) is an interferometric technique that can be used to measure local changes in temperature and mechanical strain based on spectral analyses of backscattered light from a singlemode optical fiber. The technique uses Fourier analyses to resolve spectra resulting from reflections occurring over a discrete region along the fiber. These spectra are cross-correlated with reference spectra to calculate the relative spectral shifts between measurements. The maximum of the cross-correlated spectra—termed quality—is a metric that quantifies the degree of correlation between the two measurements. Recently, this quality metric was incorporated into an adaptive algorithm to (1) selectively vary the reference measurement until the quality exceeds a predefined threshold and (2) calculate incremental spectral shifts that can be summed to determine the spectral shift relative to the initial reference. Using a graphical (network) framework, this effort demonstrated the optimal reconstruction of distributed OBR measurements for all sensing locations using a maximum spanning tree (MST). By allowing the reference to vary as a function of both time and sensing location, the MST and other adaptive algorithms could resolve spectral shifts at some locations, even if others can no longer be resolved.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Inter-Domain Fusion for Enhanced Intrusion Detection in Power Systems: An Evidence Theoretic and Meta-Heuristic Approach

False alerts due to misconfigured or compromised intrusion detection systems (IDS) in industrial control system (ICS) networks can lead to severe economic and operational damage. However, research using deep learning to reduce false alerts often requires the physical and cyber sensor data to be trustworthy. Implicit trust is a major problem for artificial intelligence or machine learning (AI/ML) in cyber-physical system (CPS) security, because when these solutions are most urgently needed is also when they are most at risk (e.g., during an attack). To address this, the Inter-Domain Evidence theoretic Approach for Inference (IDEA-I) is proposed that reframes the detection problem as how to make good decisions given uncertainty. Specifically, an evidence theoretic approach leveraging Dempster–Shafer (DS) combination rules and their variants is proposed for reducing false alerts. A multi-hypothesis mass function model is designed that leverages probability scores obtained from supervised-learning classifiers. Using this model, a location-cum-domain-based fusion framework is proposed to evaluate the detector’s performance using disjunctive, conjunctive, and cautious conjunctive rules. The approach is demonstrated in a cyber-physical power system testbed, and the classifiers are trained with datasets from Man-In-The-Middle attack emulation in a large-scale synthetic electric grid. For evaluating the performance, we consider plausibility, belief, pignistic, and general Bayesian theorem-based metrics as decision functions. To improve the performance, a multi-objective-based genetic algorithm is proposed for feature selection considering the decision metrics as the fitness function. Finally, we present a software application to evaluate the DS fusion approaches with different parameters and architectures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Best Practices for Measuring the Modulation Transfer Function of Video Endoscopes

Endoscopes are crucial for assisting in surgery and disease diagnosis, including the early detection of cancer. The effective use of endoscopes relies on their optical performance, which can be characterized with a series of metrics such as resolution, vital for revealing anatomical details. The modulation transfer function (MTF) is a key metric for evaluating endoscope resolution. However, the 2020 version of the ISO 8600-5 standard, while introducing an endoscope MTF measurement method, lacks empirical validation and excludes opto-electronic video endoscopes, the largest family of endoscopes. Measuring the MTF of video endoscopes requires tailored standards that address their unique characteristics. This paper aims to expand the scope of ISO 8600-5:2020 to include video endoscopes, by optimizing the MTF test method and addressing parameters affecting measurement accuracy. We studied the effects of intensity and uniformity of image luminance, chart modulation compensation, linearity of image digital values, auto gain control, image enhancement, image compression and the region of interest dimensions on images of slanted-edge test charts, and thus the MTF based on these images. By analyzing these effects, we provided recommendations for setting and controlling these factors to obtain accurate MTF curves. Our goal is to enhance the standard’s relevance and effectiveness for measuring the MTF of a broader range of endoscopic devices, with potential applications in the MTF measurement of other digital imaging devices.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quality Control Methods for Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data

While urban-scale building energy modeling is becoming increasingly common, it currently lacks standards, guidelines, or empirical validation against measured data. Empirical validation necessary to enable best practices is becoming increasingly tractable. The growing prevalence of advanced metering infrastructure has led to significant data regarding the energy consumption within individual buildings, but is something utilities and countries are still struggling to analyze and use wisely. In partnership with the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga, Tennessee, a crude OpenStudio/EnergyPlus model of over 178,000 buildings has been created and used to compare simulated energy against actual, 15-min, whole-building electrical consumption of each building. In this study, classifying building type is treated as a use case for quantifying performance associated with smart meter data. This article attempts to provide guidance for working with advanced metering infrastructure for buildings related to: quality control, pathological data classifications, statistical metrics on performance, a methodology for classifying building types, and assess accuracy. Advanced metering infrastructure was used to collect whole-building electricity consumption for 178,333 buildings, define equations for common data issues (missing values, zeros, and spiking), propose a new method for assigning building type, and empirically validate gaps between real buildings and existing prototypes using industry-standard accuracy metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Inherent Anharmonicity of Harmonic Solids

Atomic vibrations, in the form of phonons, are foundational in describing the thermal behavior of materials. The possible frequencies of phonons in materials are governed by the complex bonding between atoms, which is physically represented by a spring-mass model that can account for interactions (spring forces) between the atoms (masses). The lowest-order, harmonic , approximation only considers linear forces between atoms and is thought incapable of explaining phenomena like thermal expansion and thermal conductivity, which are attributed to nonlinear, anharmonic , interactions. Here, we show that the kinetic energy of atoms in a solid produces a pressure much like the kinetic energy of atoms in a gas does. This vibrational or phonon pressure naturally increases with temperature, as it does in a gas and therefore results in a thermal expansion. Because thermal expansion thermodynamically defines a Grüneisen parameter γ , which is a typical metric of anharmonicity, we show that even a harmonic solid will necessarily have some anharmonicity. A consequence of this phonon pressure model is a harmonic estimation of the Grüneisen parameter as γ ≈ 3 / 2 3 − 4 x 2 / 1 + 2 x 2 , where x = v t / v l is the ratio of the transverse and longitudinal speeds of sound. We demonstrate the immediate utility of this model by developing a high-throughput harmonic estimate of lattice thermal conductivity that is comparable to other state-of-the-art estimations. By linking harmonic and anharmonic properties explicitly, this study provokes new ideas about the fundamental nature of anharmonicity, while also providing a basis for new material engineering design metrics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of Convolutional and Feedforward Neural Networks for Fault Detection in Particle Accelerator Power Systems

High voltage converter modulators (HVCM) provide power to the accelerating cavities of the spallation neutron source (SNS) facility. HVCM experience catastrophic failures, which increase the downtime of the SNS and reduce beam time. The faults may occur due to different reasons including failures of the resonant capacitor, core saturation due to the magnetic flux, insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) failures, and others. We recently have setup a HVCM test stand to develop and test machine learning models for anomaly detection and fault prognostics. In this work, we propose binary classifiers and autoencoder architectures based on convolutional (CNN) and feedforward neural networks (FNN) to facilitate distinguishing normal from faulty waveforms coming from the HVCM during operation. The results indicate that the CNN binary classifier is the best model among the four showing very stable performance in the training and testing sets with impressive metrics of precision and recall reaching up to 99\% with a very small uncertainty. The FNN classifier shows the least performance with a large uncertainty in its metrics. The performances of the two autoencoders based on CNN and FNN were in between, showing very good performance nonetheless.

Radaideh, Majdi↗

Debris Disk Results from the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey's Polarimetric Imaging Campaign

We report the results of a ∼4 yr direct imaging survey of 104 stars to resolve and characterize circumstellar debris disks in scattered light as part of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) Exoplanet Survey. We targeted nearby (≲150 pc), young (≲500 Myr) stars with high infrared (IR) excesses (L {sub IR}/L {sub ⋆} > 10{sup −5}), including 38 with previously resolved disks. Observations were made using the GPI high-contrast integral field spectrograph in H-band (1.6 μm) coronagraphic polarimetry mode to measure both polarized and total intensities. We resolved 26 debris disks and 3 protoplanetary/transitional disks. Seven debris disks were resolved in scattered light for the first time, including newly presented HD 117214 and HD 156623, and we quantified basic morphologies of five of them using radiative transfer models. All of our detected debris disks except HD 156623 have dust-poor inner holes, and their scattered-light radii are generally larger than corresponding radii measured from resolved thermal emission and those inferred from spectral energy distributions. To assess sensitivity, we report contrasts and consider causes of nondetections. Detections were strongly correlated with high IR excess and high inclination, although polarimetry outperformed total intensity angular differential imaging for detecting low-inclination disks (≲70°). Based on postsurvey statistics, we improved upon our presurvey target prioritization metric predicting polarimetric disk detectability. We also examined scattered-light disks in the contexts of gas, far-IR, and millimeter detections. Comparing H-band and ALMA fluxes for two disks revealed tentative evidence for differing grain properties. Finally, we found no preference for debris disks to be detected in scattered light if wide-separation substellar companions were present.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optical Photometric Indicators of Galaxy Cluster Relaxation

Abstract The most dynamically relaxed clusters of galaxies play a special role in cosmological studies as well as astrophysical studies of the intracluster medium (ICM) and active galactic nucleus feedback. While high-spatial-resolution imaging of the morphology of the ICM has long been the gold standard for establishing a cluster’s dynamical state, such data are not available from current or planned surveys, and thus require separate, pointed follow-up observations. With optical and/or near-IR photometric imaging, and red-sequence cluster finding results from those data, expected to be ubiquitously available for clusters discovered in upcoming optical and millimeter-wavelength surveys, it is worth asking how effectively photometric data alone can identify relaxed cluster candidates, before investing in, e.g., high-resolution X-ray observations. Here we assess the ability of several simple photometric measurements, based on the redMaPPer cluster finder run on Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, to reproduce X-ray classifications of dynamical state for an X-ray selected sample of massive clusters. We find that two simple metrics contrasting the bright central galaxy (BCG) to other cluster members can identify a complete sample of relaxed clusters with a purity of ∼40% in our data set. Including minimal ICM information in the form of a center position increases the purity to ∼60%. However, all three metrics depend critically on correctly identifying the BCG, which is presently a challenge for optical red-sequence cluster finders.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characteristics of the IBEX Ribbon and Their Implications for a Source Region Outside the Heliopause

This paper presents a comprehensive exploration of the Interstellar Boundary Explorer energetic neutral atom (ENA) ribbon, focusing on its spatial and temporal variations over 14 yr. Methodological advancements, including a refined map modeling procedure and a new ribbon separation technique with appropriate error propagation, enable a detailed investigation of the ribbon’s features. Utilizing statistically robust metrics, this study reveals details of the ribbon across energy and time. Key findings include energy- and time-dependent variations in flux, angular radius, ribbon profile width, and higher moments. By applying these metrics, we reveal new complexity to the evolution of the ribbon over time, highlighting the nuanced relationship between it and the solar wind. Furthermore, the study examines for the first time the ribbon as it passes through the starboard/heliotail region (Lon EC 120°–180°), revealing properties distinct from other portions of the ribbon. The analysis uncovers an anticorrelation between ribbon width and flux, which provides quantitative support for a multisource ribbon created by a combination of solar wind neutrals that generate a spatiall narrow ribbon component and heliosheath neutrals giving rise to a broad component. Finally, differences in the temporal evolution of the ENA flux at different energies provide additional support that the location of the ribbon source region is beyond the heliopause.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tuning the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Observing Strategy for Solar System Science

Abstract The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to start the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) in early to mid-2025. This multiband wide-field synoptic survey will transform our view of the solar system, with the discovery and monitoring of over five million small bodies. The final survey strategy chosen for LSST has direct implications on the discoverability and characterization of solar system minor planets and passing interstellar objects. Creating an inventory of the solar system is one of the four main LSST science drivers. The LSST observing cadence is a complex optimization problem that must balance the priorities and needs of all the key LSST science areas. To design the best LSST survey strategy, a series of operation simulations using the Rubin Observatory scheduler have been generated to explore the various options for tuning observing parameters and prioritizations. We explore the impact of the various simulated LSST observing strategies on studying the solar system’s small body reservoirs. We examine what are the best observing scenarios and review what are the important considerations for maximizing LSST solar system science. In general, most of the LSST cadence simulations produce ±5% or less variations in our chosen key metrics, but a subset of the simulations significantly hinder science returns with much larger losses in the discovery and light-curve metrics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Multi-Dimensional Benefit Assessment of Automated Mobility Platforms (AMP) for Large Facilities: Mobility, Energy, Equity, and Facility Management & Design

The goal of the automated mobility platforms (AMPs) initiative is to raise the bar of service regarding equity and sustainability for public mobility systems that are crucial to large facilities, and doing so using electrified, energy efficient technology. Using airports as an example, the rapid growth in air travel demand has led to facility expansions and congested terminals, which directly impacts equity (e.g., increased challenges for Passengers with Reduced Mobility [PRMs]) and sustainability - both of which are important metrics often overlooked during the engineering design process. Therefore, to evaluate systems and inform critical near- and long-term decisions more effectively, a holistic evaluation framework is proposed focused on four key areas: (1) mobility, with emphasis on travel time and accessibility within an airport, (2) environment, focused on energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with intra-airport mobility, (3) equity, specifically to the PRM community, but with an eye to the whole of society, and (4) built environment, or the fundamental changes in building design enabled by different mobility systems for larger and more flexible, functional, and energy-efficient structures. Below, AMPs are defined, and each metric is discussed further, all with a focus on airport mobility.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

Improving the Confidence in Retrievals of Vertical Distributions of Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number Concentration from ARM Supported by Aircraft In Situ Observations

Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations is critical for improving our understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions. Ground-based Raman lidars operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, together with surface CCN measurements, are used to retrieve vertically resolved CCN number concentrations (Retrieved Number concentration of CCN, RNCCN). These retrievals rely on several assumptions, including that aerosol composition is vertically homogeneous. To assess this assumption, we developed and tested a framework to infer the dominant aerosol classes/types at different altitudes. This was done by applying a k-Nearest-Neighbors (kNN) algorithm to lidar ratio and linear depolarization ratio measurements from Raman lidar. We evaluated the framework using aircraft aerosol and CCN measurements from the ARM Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. The results show that RNCCN performance degrades as vertical aerosol complexity increases, i.e., RNCCN agrees with the aircraft CCN in vertically homogeneous conditions, but closure decreases in layered aerosol structures. To generalize beyond individual examples, we introduce a metric (heterogeneity index) that quantifies the vertical complexity by assessing the variation of inferred aerosol classes/types. Case-level statistics show a tendency for RNCCN and aircraft differences to increase with this metric. By detecting retrievals that are likely compromised by aerosol vertical heterogeneity, the proposed framework improves the interpretability and effective use of RNCCN used for long-term evaluation of models and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Tian, Jingjing↗

Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance

Abstract. Comparisons of carbon uptake estimates from bottom-up terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to top-down atmospheric inversions help assess how well we understand carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. Previous comparisons have shown varying levels of agreement between bottom-up and top-down approaches, but they have almost exclusively focused on large, aggregated scales (e.g., global or continental), providing limited insights into reasons for the mismatches. Here we explore how consistency, defined as the spread in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) estimates within an ensemble of TBMs or inversions, varies with at finer spatial scales ranging from 1∘×1∘ to the continent of North America. We also evaluate how well consistency informs accuracy in overall NEE estimates by filtering models based on their agreement with the variability, magnitude, and seasonality in observed atmospheric CO2 drawdowns or enhancements. We find that TBMs produce more consistent estimates of NEE for most regions and at most scales relative to inversions. Filtering models using atmospheric CO2 metrics causes ensemble spread to decrease substantially for TBMs, but not for inversions. This suggests that ensemble spread is likely not a reliable measure of the uncertainty associated with the North American carbon balance at any spatial scale. Promisingly, applying atmospheric CO2 metrics leads to a set of models with converging flux estimates across TBMs and inversions. Overall, we show that multiscale assessment of the agreement between bottom-up and top-down NEE estimates, aided by regional-scale observational constraints is a promising path towards identifying fine-scale sources of uncertainty and improving both ensemble consistency and accuracy. These findings help refine our understanding of biospheric carbon balance, particularly at scales relevant for informing regional carbon-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs

Previous climate modeling studies demonstrate the ability of feedback-regulated, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering with injection at multiple independent latitudes to meet multiple simultaneous temperature-based objectives in the presence of anthropogenic climate change. However, the impacts of climate change are not limited to rising temperatures but also include changes in precipitation, loss of sea ice, and many more; knowing how a given geoengineering strategy will affect each of these climate metrics is vital to understanding the limits and trade-offs of geoengineering. Here, we first introduce a new method of visualizing the design space in which desired climate outcomes are represented by 2-D surfaces on a 3-D graph. Surface orientations represent how different injection choices influence that objective, and intersecting surfaces represent objectives which can be met simultaneously. Using this representation as a guide, we present simulations of two new strategies for feedback-regulated aerosol injection, using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model – CESM1(WACCM). The first simultaneously manages global mean temperature, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent, while the second manages global mean precipitation, tropical precipitation centroid, and Arctic sea ice extent. Both simulations control the tropical precipitation centroid to within 5 % of the goal, and the latter controls global mean precipitation to within 1% of the goal. Additionally, the first simulation overcompensates sea ice, while the second undercompensates sea ice; all of these results are consistent with the expectations of our design space model. In addition to showing that precipitation-based climate metrics can be managed using feedback alongside other goals, our simulations validate the utility of our design space visualization in predicting our climate model behavior under a given geoengineering strategy, and together they help illustrate the fundamental limits and trade-offs of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗