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Use of a New Analytical Model To Match Production Data and Identify Opportunities To Maximize Well Productivity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Reservoir

The low productivity of the oil wells in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) Trend, located in Louisiana and Mississippi, is a mystery. Production data from 55 wells in the TMS Trend were analyzed to identify possible means of enhancing well productivity. The -1/2 slope in a log–log plot for reservoir linear flow (RLF) was observed for some wells, but not all, and the -1 slope for boundary–dominated flow (BDF) has not been seen in the past 5 years of production. The behavior of the TMS wells is attributed to the ultralow permeability of the TMS matrix and the decline of fracture conductivity, both of which delay the BDF. On the basis of the concept of the distance of investigation, derived from the radius–of–investigation concept, the matrix permeability of the seven TMS wells was estimated to be between 34 and 65 nd, with an average of 51 nd. A new mathematical model for production decline of multifractured horizontal wells was developed taking into consideration the time–dependent fracture conductivity during the BDF period. This model fits TMS–well production data, with an average error of 6.12% and an R2 value of 0.96. Assuming constant matrix permeability, fitting the new model to the production data in the BDF period gives a rate of fracture–conductivity decline of between 0.20 and 0.74% per month. The new mathematical model reveals opportunities to optimize well completion to enhance well productivity in the TMS Trend. For a given amount of fracture proppant allocated to a well, the shortest possible fracture spacing should be used to maximize well productivity. If the number of fractures is fixed as a constraint of well completion design, well productivity is inversely proportional to the square root of fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by fourfold, well productivity is expected to double). If the horizontal wellbore length is fixed as a constraint of well completion, well productivity is inversely proportional to fracture spacing (i.e., if the fracture spacing is shortened by 50%, well productivity is expected to double).

Engineering↗

Surface energy of fayalite and its effect on Fe-Si-O oxygen buffers and the olivine-spinel transition

The surface energy (hydrated surfaces) of fayalite ($α$-Fe 2 SiO 4 ) was determined to be 2.47 ± 0.25 J/m 2 using high-temperature oxide melt solution calorimetry. This is larger than the surface energy of magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ), but lower than that of forsterite ($α$-Mg 2 SiO 4 ). The changes in the positions of the quartz-fayalite-magnetite (QFM) and quartz-iron-fayalite (QIF) buffers with particle size reduction were calculated. QFM is lowered in $f_{O_2}$ by 3–7 log units as a function of temperature for 30 nm particles while QIF is raised by 1–2 log units. The estimated surface energy difference between olivine and spinel polymorphs decreases the pressure of the olivine-spinel transition in Fe 2 SiO 4 by about 1 GPa.

quartz-iron-fayalite (QIF) buffers↗

Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Advancing Commercialization of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in Fossil-Rich Wyoming

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin (PRB) is the most prolific coal producer and exporter in the United States and the State of Wyoming’s largest oil-producing basin. In addition to being a leading energy producer, the PRB is the site of research programs whose aim is to develop and integrate low-carbon technologies into existing fossil fuel energy industries. Much of the PRB’s low-carbon research is focused around Dry Fork Station (DFS), which is the newest coal-fired power station in the western US. Currently, DFS hosts five carbon capture projects, including pilot-scale capture projects that utilize different capture technologies and a full front-end engineering and design (FEED) study, a commercial CO 2 pipeline for nearby CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, and is also co-located with the Wyoming Integrated Test Center, which is a host facility for unconventional carbon utilization research (i.e. flue gas carbon-to-products innovations). DFS is also the host site for the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. Wyoming CarbonSAFE, funded by the Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, is a multi-phased program (currently in Phase II) whose core objective is developing and validating storage sites within a complex capable of storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 over a 30 year project period using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). This paper will provide an overview of the project to-date, showing that CarbonSAFE goals are achievable with respect to geologic, environmental, regulatory, CO 2 source and economic conditions, and why the State of Wyoming offers one of the more favorable environments to advance the commercialization studies. In 2019, the project team designed and completed a ~10,000 foot stratigraphic test well just south of DFS. From this well, the team collected over 600 feet of core, fluid samples from target injection zones, and a full petrophysical log suite. In addition, legacy 2D seismic lines were acquired and a 3D seismic survey was acquired in the fall of 2020. The objective of these field activities has been to identify and characterize target storage reservoirs and associated caprock. This complex has several reservoirs that could meet commercial injection goals, and over 4000 feet of associated caprock. Simulations of site performance suggest that stacked injection provides the most effective storage strategy, and would necessitate several sites within the greater complex to meet final project injection goals. Other work within this project includes the development of a business-case around proximal fields with CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery potential and existing tax credits, assessment of regulatory conditions, including pore space ownership and Class VI injection well permitting requirements, implementation of a robust public outreach Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3821220 GHGT-15 McLaughlin 2 program, and surface site characterization activities that have focused on environmental factors. In the PRB and at DFS, the State of Wyoming and other entities have made carbon management a priority of its future energy industry by providing a regulatory and business framework that is favorable to advancing these technologies. These endeavors will become more realistic with the successful implementation of Wyoming CarbonSAFE, and its ability to secure and validate commercial-scale CCUS at the center of Wyoming’s premier low-carbon research efforts.

McLaughlin, Fred↗

Omen: identifying potential spear-phishing targets before the email is sent.

We present the results of a two year project focused on a common social engineering attack method called "spear phishing". In a spear phishing attack, the user receives an email with information specifically focused on the user. This email contains either a malware-laced attachment or a link to download the malware that has been disguised as a useful program. Spear phishing attacks have been one of the most effective avenues for attackers to gain initial entry into a target network. This project focused on a proactive approach to spear phishing. To create an effective, user-specific spear phishing email, the attacker must research the intended recipient. We believe that much of the information used by the attacker is provided by the target organization's own external website. Thus when researching potential targets, the attacker leaves signs of his research in the webserver's logs. We created tools and visualizations to improve cybersecurity analysts' abilities to quickly understand a visitor's visit patterns and interests. Given these suspicious visitors and log-parsing tools, analysts can more quickly identify truly suspicious visitors, search for potential spear-phishing targeted users, and improve security around those users before the spear phishing email is sent.

Wendt, Jeremy Daniel.↗

Development and Demonstration of a Security Core Component

In recent years, the convergence of a number of trends has resulted in Cyber Security becoming a much greater concern for electric utilities. A short list of these trends includes: · Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) have evolved from depending on proprietary hardware and operating software toward using standard off-the-shelf hardware and operating software. This has meant that these ICSs can no longer depend on “security through obscurity. · Similarly, these same systems have evolved toward using standard communications protocols, further reducing their ability to rely upon obscurity. · The rise of the Internet and the accompanying demand for more data about virtually everything has resulted in formerly isolated ICSs becoming at least partially accessible via Internet-connected networks. · “Cyber crime” has become commonplace, whether it be for industrial espionage, reconnaissance for a possible cyber attack, theft, or because some individual or group “has something to prove.” Electric utility system operators are experts at running the power grid. The reality is, especially at small and mid-sized utilities, these SCADA operators will by default be “on the front line” if and when a cyber attack occurs against their systems. These people are not computer software, networking, or cyber security experts, so they are ill-equipped to deal with a cyber security incident. Cyber Security Manager (CSM) was conceived, designed, and built so that it can be configured to know what a utility’s SCADA/EMS/DMS system looks like under normal conditions. To do this, CSM monitors log messages from any device that uses the syslog standard. It can also monitor a variety of statistics from the computers that make up the SCADA/EMS/DMS: outputs from host-based security tools, intrusion detection systems, SCADA alarms, and real-time SCADA values – even results from a SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system. When the system deviates from “normal,” CSM can alert the operator in language that they understand that an incident may be occurring, provide actionable intelligence, and informing them what actions to take. These alarms may be viewed on CSM’s built-in user interface, sent to a SCADA alarm list, or communicated via email, phone, pager, or SMS message. In recognition of the fact that “real world” training for cyber security events is impractical, CSM has a built-in Operator Training Simulator capability. This can be used stand alone to create simulated event scenarios for training purposes. It may also be used in conjunction with the recipient’s SCADA/EMS/DMS Operator Training Simulator. In addition to providing cyber security situational awareness for electric utility operators, CSM also provides tools for analysts and support personnel; in fact, the majority of user interface displays are designed for use in analyzing current and past security events. CSM keeps security-related information in long-term storage, as well as writing any decisions it makes to a (syslog) log for use forensic or other post-event analysis.

Turke, Andy↗

Integrated Geophysical Measurements for Bioremediation Monitoring: Combining Spectral Induced Polarization, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Magnetic Methods

This documents contains the final report for the project "Integrated Geophysical Measurements for Bioremediation Monitoring: Combining Spectral Induced Polarization, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Magnetic Methods" (DE-SC0007049) Executive Summary: Our research aimed to develop borehole measurement techniques capable of monitoring subsurface processes, such as changes in pore geometry and iron/sulfur geochemistry, associated with remediation of heavy metals and radionuclides. Previous work has demonstrated that geophysical method spectral induced polarization (SIP) can be used to assess subsurface contaminant remediation; however, SIP signals can be generated from multiple sources limiting their interpretation value. Integrating multiple geophysical methods, such as nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and magnetic susceptibility (MS), with SIP, could reduce the ambiguity of interpretation that might result from a single method. Our research efforts entails combining measurements from these methods, each sensitive to different mineral forms and/or mineral-fluid interfaces, providing better constraints on changes in subsurface biogeochemical processes and pore geometries significantly improving our understanding of processes impacting contaminant remediation. The Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge (IFRC) site was used as a test location for our measurements. The Rifle IFRC site is located at a former uranium ore-processing facility in Rifle, Colorado. Leachate from spent mill tailings has resulted in residual uranium contamination of both groundwater and sediments within the local aquifer. Studies at the site include an ongoing acetate amendment strategy, native microbial populations are stimulated by introduction of carbon intended to alter redox conditions and immobilize uranium. To test the geophysical methods in the field, NMR and MS logging measurements were collected before, during, and after acetate amendment. Next, laboratory NMR, MS, and SIP measurements were collected on columns of Rifle sediments during acetate amendment. The laboratory experiments were designed to simulate the field experiments; changes in geophysical signals were expected to correlate with changes in redox conditions and iron speciation. Field MS logging measurements revealed vertically stratified magnetic mineralization, likely the result of detrital magnetic fraction within the bulk alluvium. Little to no change was observed in the MS data suggesting negligible production of magnetic phases (e.g. magnetite, pyrrhotite) as a result of sulfidogenesis. Borehole NMR measurements contained high levels of noise contamination requiring significant signal processing, and analysis suggests that any changes may be difficult to differentiate from simultaneous changes in water content. Laboratory MS and NMR measurements remained relatively stable throughout the course of the acetate amendment experiment, consistent with field measurements. However, SIP measurements changed during the acetate amendment associated with the formation of iron-sulfide mineral phases; a finding that is consistent with chemical analysis of the solid phase materials in the columns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unit Price Scaling Trends for Chemical Products

To facilitate early-stage life-cycle techno-economic modeling of emerging technologies, here we identify scaling relations between unit price and sales quantity for a variety of chemical products of three categories - metal salts, organic compounds, and solvents. We collect price quotations for lab-scale and bulk purchases of chemicals from both U.S. and Chinese suppliers. We apply a log-log linear regression model to estimate the price discount effect. Using the median discount factor of each category, one can infer bulk prices of products for which only lab-scale prices are available. We conduct out-of-sample tests showing that most of the price proxies deviate from their actual reference prices by a factor less than ten. We also apply the bootstrap method to determine if a sample median discount factor should be accepted for price approximation. We find that appropriate discount factors for metal salts and for solvents are both -0.56, while that for organic compounds is -0.67 and is less representative due to greater extent of product heterogeneity within this category.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MULTILEVEL MONTE CARLO (MLMC) SIMULATIONS: PERFORMANCE RESULTS FOR SPE10 (XY SLICES)

In this report we first describe a generic multilevel Monte Carlo method and then illustrate its superior performance over a traditional single-level Monte Carlo method for second order elliptic PDEs corresponding to two-dimensional layers in (x, y)-direction of the Tenth SPE Comparative Solution project (SPE 10) which gives high-contrast permeability coefficients. The SPE10 data set is used as a coarse level in the Monte Carlo method and the respective permeability coefficient k (provided in the SPE10 dataset) is used as a mean in the simulation. The actual coefficients are drawn based on a KL-expansion assuming that the log-mean is perturbed by a log-normal distributed samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Solving Graph Laplacian Systems Through Recursive Bisections and Two-Grid Preconditioning

We present a parallelizable direct method for computing the solution to graph Laplacian-based linear systems derived from graphs that can be hierarchically bipartitioned with small edge cuts. For a graph of size n with constant-size edge cuts, our method decomposes a graph Laplacian in time O(n log n), and then uses that decomposition to perform a linear solve in time O(n log n). We then use the developed technique to design a preconditioner for graph Laplacians that do not have this property. Finally, we augment this preconditioner with a two-grid method that accounts for much of the preconditioner's weaknesses. We present an analysis of this method, as well as a general theorem for the condition number of a general class of two-grid support graph-based preconditioners. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the studied methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cosmological Constraints on Decoupled Dark Photons and Dark Higgs

Any neutral boson such as a dark photon or dark Higgs that is part of a non-standard sector of particles can mix with its standard model counterpart. When very weakly mixed with the Standard Model, these particles are produced in the early Universe via the freeze-in mechanism and subsequently decay back to standard model particles. In this work, we place constraints on such mediator decays by considering bounds from Big Bang nucleosynthesis and the cosmic microwave background radiation. We find both nucleosynthesis and CMB can constrain dark photons with a kinetic mixing parameter between log ϵ ~ -10 to -17 for masses between 1 MeV and 100 GeV. Similarly, the dark Higgs mixing angle ϵ with the Standard Model Higgs is constrained between log ϵ ~ -6 to -15. Dramatic improvement on the bounds from CMB spectral distortions can be achieved with proposed experiments such as PIXIE.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Micro-to Meso-scale Fractures on Sealing Behavior of Argillaceous Cap Rocks For CO 2 Sequestration

This multi-disciplinary project evaluated seal lithologies for the safety and security of long-term geosequestration of CO 2 . We used integrated studies to provide qualitative risk for potential seal failure; we integrated data sets from outcrop, core, geochemical analysis, rock failure properties from mechanical testing, geophysical wireline log analysis, and geomechanical modeling to understand the effects of lithologic heterogeneity and changing mechanical properties have on the mechanical properties of the seal. The objectives of this study were to characterize cap rock seals using natural field analogs, available drillhole logging data and whole-rock core, geochemical and isotopic analyses. Rock deformation experiments were carried out on collected samples to develop better models of risk estimation for potential cap rock seal failure. We also sampled variably faulted and fractured cap rocks to examine the impacts of mineralization and/or alteration on the mechanical properties. We compared CO 2 reacted systems to non-CO 2 reacted seal rock types to determine response of each to increased pore fluid pressures and potential for the creation of unintentional hydrofractures at depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Rheological and Mechanical Property Measurements of PMDI Foam at Elevated Temperatures

A study was undertaken to determine the viscosity of liquefied 20 lb/ft 3 poly methylene diisocyanate (PMDI) foam and the stress required to puncture solid PMDI foam at elevated temperatures. For the rheological measurements the foam was a priori liquefied in a pressure vessel such that the volatiles were not lost in the liquefaction process. The viscosity of the liquefied PMDI foam was found to be Newtonian with a power law dependence on temperature log 10 (μ/Pa s) = 20.6 – 9.5 log 10 (T/°C) for temperatures below 170 °C. Above 170 °C, the viscosity was in the range of 0.3 Pa s which is close to the lower measurement limit (≈ 0.1 Pa s) of the pressurized rheometer. The mechanical pressure required to break through 20lb/ft 3 foam was 500-800 psi at temperatures from room temperature up to 180 °C. The mechanical pressure required to break through 10 lb/ft 3 was 170-300 psi at temperatures from room temperature up to 180 °C. We have not been able to cause gas to break through the 20 lb/ft 3 PMDI foam at gas pressures up to 100 psi.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Idling Reduction for Long-Haul Trucks: An Economic Comparison of On-Board and Wayside Technologies

Reducing the idling of long-haul heavy-duty trucks has long been recognized as a particularly low-hanging fruit of fuel efficiency and emissions reduction. The displacement of about 10 hours of diesel idling every day, for most days of the year, for as many as a million long-haul trucks has very clear benefits. This report considers the costs and return on investment (ROI) for idling reduction (IR) equipment for both truck owners and electrified parking space (EPS) equipment owners. For the truck owners, the key variables examined are idling hours to be displaced (generally 1,000 to 2,000 hours per year) and the price of fuel ($0 to $5/gal). The ideal IR option would provide complete services in varied climates in any location and offer the best ROI on trucks that log many idling hours. For trucks that have fewer idling hours, options with a fixed cost per hour (i.e., EPS) might be most attractive if they were available to all, or even most, truck drivers. EPS, however, is particularly cost effective for trucks on prescribed routes with a need for regular, extended stops at terminals. (EPS is also called truck stop electrification, or TSE.) The analysis shows that all IR options save money when fuel costs more than $2/gal. For trucks requiring bunk heat, a simple heater (plug-in or diesel) is almost always the most costeffective way to provide heat, even if the truck is equipped with an auxiliary power unit (APU) or is parked at a single-system EPS location. For trucks requiring bunk air-conditioning, the use of single-system EPS is most cost effective for those logging fewer idling hours. Even for trucks with higher idling hours, the cost of EPS may be about the same as that for on-board air-conditioning. Clearly, trucks’ locations and seasonal factors—and the availability of EPS— are significant in the choice of “best fit” IR equipment for truck owners. This report also considers costs and payback for owners of EPS infrastructure. An industry that 5 years ago had at least five players has been narrowed to two companies—one in single-system EPS (IdleAir) and the other in dual-system EPS (Shorepower Technologies). Use of EPS by truck drivers has not met initial expectations for a variety of reasons. One area where EPS has particular promise, however, is in the cost-effective provision of reliable air-conditioning. This analysis is focused strictly on cost and fuel savings; it does not consider the important benefits of reduced emissions (i.e., greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants). It is important to note that all IR options provide some emissions benefits. Even where an IR option may not have a rapid ROI, the emissions-reduction benefit may be considerable. Finally, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) set stricter standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the fuel efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, the emissions benefits of IR strategies will become increasingly important.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High Tonnage Forest Biomass Production Systems from Southern Pine Energy Plantations

In this study, a high-tonnage harvesting system designed specifically to operate efficiently in the expected stand types of a bioenergy scenario was built, deployed, and evaluated in a production setting. Stands on which the system was evaluated exhibited the heavy stocking levels (> 600 stems per acre) and tree size distributions with significant volume in small stems (down to 2” DBH) that were expected in the modified energy plantation silvicultural approach. The harvest system also was designed to be functional in the traditional plantation stands dominating the commercial forestry landscape in the region. The Tigercat 845D feller buncher, which was a prototype machine designed for the high tonnage harvest system, used a boom-mounted prototype DT1802 shear felling head and incorporated a number of options intended to maximize its small-stem productivity, including: a high-speed shear severing system that was cheaper to operate than a saw; a large-pocket felling head that allowed larger accumulations of small stems to be built before expending the time to drop them for the skidder; efficient, low ground pressure, tracked carrier system to decrease the amount of maneuvering, saving time and minimizing soil disturbance; and various energy-saving devices to lower fuel costs and minimize air quality impacts. Overall, the feller buncher represented a quantum advance in small-stem harvesting technology. Extensive testing showed the machine’s production rate to be relatively insensitive to piece size, much less so than comparable traditional equipment. In plantation stands, the feller buncher was able to produce approximately 100 green tons of biomass per productive machine hour (PMH), and in natural stands, it produced nearly 120 green tons per PMH. The ability of the high tonnage feller buncher to maintain high productivity in stands with smaller diameter stems is something that has not been achieved in previous feller buncher designs. The Tigercat 845D feller buncher is now a production machine for Tigercat and is being sold in their current product line. The high-speed felling system was paired with a Tigercat 630D skidder and high-capacity grapple; one that could match the felling productivity when pulling small stems. The harvesting system minimized hourly costs using a single, high-capacity skidder (with a single operator), rather than two smaller ones, which is the traditional practice. The skidder itself can be considered a mid-range size and had an engine no larger than other machines in its class, but it incorporated a very large capacity 25 ft2 grapple. The large grapple is well suited to grabbing and hauling a large bunch of small-diameter trees, as produced by the high tonnage feller buncher. The grapple worked effectively in larger stems as well, but its ability to carry large numbers of small stems meant the average payload did not drop as stand DBH decreased. Tests with the machine indicated its travel speeds were nearly the same as, or perhaps slightly better than, conventionally equipped skidders, but grapple capacity was 75% larger. Productivity and cost per ton of the new skidder were better than conventional skidders for average skid distances of any length greater than 100 feet. Measured skidder productivity was as high as 143 gt/PMH. Its productivity exceeded that of the high-capacity feller buncher for skid distances out to nearly 700 feet, so system productivity could be expected to remain high for stands of a size typical in the southern U.S. The Tigercat 630D skidder is a production machine for Tigercat and the large grapple can now be ordered by customers using it for small diameter trees. When the feller buncher and skidder are analyzed as a two-machine system, overall productivity is fixed at the level of the least productive machine. Results from a set of side-by-side tests in the same density stand with conventional feller bunchers and skidders showed that the high tonnage system produced 97 gt/PMH versus 68 gt/PMH for a comparable conventional system. Machine rate costs for felling and skidding were $2.31/gt and $3.72/gt for the high tonnage, and conventional systems, respectively. However, the most significant result of the project is that the high tonnage system was shown to be relatively insensitive to tree size. This ability to maintain felling and skidding productivity and cost as tree size decreases is a breakthrough in harvesting systems for southern pine plantations. The concept of transpirational drying of woody biomass was tested at an industrial scale at multiple locations during this project. Felled trees were allowed to dry in two scenarios: 1) in bunches where they were felled, and 2) in roadside piles. Although the wood piled in large piles at roadside did experience drying, the wood left in bunches experienced a greater moisture reduction. Drying times of 72 days in the late summer resulted in mean wood moisture content of 26% for skidder bunches and 39% for the large pile at roadside as compared to moisture contents of 55% to 58% for freshly cut trees. An existing whole-tree chipper, Precision 2675, was modified to allow production of chips smaller than the traditional pulp size chip (i.e. “microchips”). Feed rates and knife placements were retained in the new design, while additional pockets were incorporated in the chipper disk to allow the attachment of either four knives for pulp chips or eight knives for microchips. This design facilitated switching between the energy and pulp chip product options at relatively low expense (about ½ day downtime). Chipping of whole-trees into pulp chips and microchips with the Precision 2675 disk chipper resulted in average productivities of 79.5 gt/PMH and 70.7 gt/PMH, respectively. Production rates of the chipper were lower when producing microchips by about 10% relative to producing pulp chips, but rates were similar to those achievable when making clean pulp chips. Particle size analysis for clean pine microchips revealed 26.6% retention on a 13 mm (slightly less than 3/8-inch) round hole screen and 25.9% retention for whole-tree pine microchips. For comparison, clean pine pulp chips had 52.2% retained. Ash content (% dry basis) was 0.54% for clean pine microchips and 0.62% for whole-tree pine microchips. Ash content for clean pine pulp chips was 0.39%. For transpirationally-dried material there was 38.1% retention for whole-tree microchips on a 13mm screen compared to 70.1% for dried clean pulp chips. Ash content was 0.78% and 0.44% respectively for these two chip types. Clean pine microchips stored at roadside had 25.2% retention on a 13 mm screen and 0.50% ash content. For mixed species (pine and hardwood), whole-tree microchips had 25.1% retention on a 13 mm screen compared to 50.6% for whole-tree pulp chips. Ash content was 2.12% and 2.74% respectively for these two chip types. Clean hardwood microchips stored at roadside had 35.0% retention on a 13 mm screen and an ash content of 1.24%. There are two significant advantages to using transpirational drying: reduced transportation costs, and reduced drying costs (capital and operating costs) for the biorefinery. This project evaluated the potential to reduce transportation costs through transpirational drying, and it included a component that tested higher capacity chip trailers (23% larger volume) to be able to transport dry wood with a lower bulk density. For transpirationally-dried chips at 35% MC, the high-capacity trailers achieved loads with a mean payload of 24 tons with maximum payloads of 29 tons. The typical legal payload on this trailer is 28.5 tons. Therefore, the project demonstrated that it is possible to achieve maximum legal payloads on chip trailers with transpirationally dried wood. Assuming that the truck is loaded to the legal payload limit, the transportation costs of chips can be reduced from $15.91/dry ton (dt) for 56% MC wood to $10.77/dt for transpirationally dried wood at 35% MC (for an example 50-mile haul distance at $0.14 per one-way ton-mile). For longer haul distances, these savings in trucking costs become even more significant. These results have demonstrated how significant savings in transportation costs can be achieved through transpirational drying. Also, these results show that it may be possible to increase the procurement radius for a biorefinery by using transpirational drying. Further cost reductions can be realized by the biorefinery when drying costs are reduced. The goal of this study was development of a timber harvesting system as productive in stands optimized for biomass production as it was in stands grown for roundwood markets. If that goal is achieved, a logger can invest in a single suite of equipment and operate efficiently in any future silvicultural regime that might include energy feedstocks as an output. It was the premise of the study that a future biomass market would shift the age distribution and stem size in stands grown for energy downward, and the key strategy in developing a harvest system for that scenario would be creating one with logging costs relatively insensitive to tree size. Our vision for such a system included a felling machine with a large capacity head to minimize time spent building bunches, plus a skidder capable of moving large volumes of small trees. The study proposed building the system and testing it against existing equipment in stands similar to those envisioned as resulting from biomass-optimized silviculture. As stated previously, the new feller buncher and skidder evaluated on their own merits showed their designs were clearly a step in the right direction - their productivity was indeed high and less sensitive to reductions in stem size. Cost projections based on extensive time and production studies of the high tonnage and benchmark operations showed modest advantages in FOB costs of the new system in both ‘average’ and simulated ‘energy’ stands (7.7% and 9.5%, respectively). But it was clear, when coupled into a traditional logging system, the in-woods productivity advantage of the modified equipment was easily overwhelmed by inefficiencies in chipping or trucking. Some additional savings can be achieved by spreading the cost of the feller buncher over multiple chipping operations (another 7.5%), but generally, in stands with average DBH above 6 inches, the in-woods equipment was not limiting productivity, and costs were driven by chipping and transport. Our results were a positive step in lowering delivered cost of trees grown for energy purposes, but they also argue strongly for a more comprehensive approach in solving this issue. The procurement system in its entirety has to be optimized to take full advantage of the productivity gains achieved with the machines and transpirational drying techniques developed in this project. We have to understand the true costs of all logistical options, particularly those of the choice in chipping strategy and in truck allocation, both of which seemed, in this study, to be the greatest source of variability in cost, and often the most expensive operations as well.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Well Monitoring System For EGS

This grant is a collection of projects designed to move aircraft high temperature electronics technology into the geothermal industry. Randy Normann is the lead. He licensed the HT83SNL00 chip from Sandia National Labs. This chip enables aircraft developed electronics for work within a geothermal well logging tool. However, additional elements are needed to achieve commercially successful logging tools. These elements are offered by a strong list of industrial partners on this grant as: Electrochemical Systems Inc. for HT Rechargeable Batteries, Frequency Management Systems for 300C digital clock, Sandia National Labs for experts in high temperature solder, Honeywell Solid-State Electronics Center for reprogrammable high temperature memory. During the course of this project MagiQ Technologies for high temperature fiber optics.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Contextual Multi-armed Bandits under Feature Uncertainty

We study contextual multi-armed bandit problems under linear realizability on rewards and uncertainty (or noise) on features. For the case of identical noise on features across actions, we propose an algorithm, coined NLinRel, having O(T⁷/₈(log(dT)+K√d)) regret bound for T rounds, K actions, and d-dimensional feature vectors. Next, for the case of non-identical noise, we observe that popular linear hypotheses including NLinRel are impossible to achieve such sub-linear regret. Instead, under assumption of Gaussian feature vectors, we prove that a greedy algorithm has O(T²/₃√log d)regret bound with respect to the optimal linear hypothesis. Utilizing our theoretical understanding on the Gaussian case, we also design a practical variant of NLinRel, coined Universal-NLinRel, for arbitrary feature distributions. It first runs NLinRel for finding the ‘true’ coefficient vector using feature uncertainties and then adjust it to minimize its regret using the statistical feature information. We justify the performance of Universal-NLinRel on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗