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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Diagnosing coupled jet-streak circulations for a northern plains snow band from the operational nested-grid model

On 17 March 1989, moderate to heavy snow developed in a 100- to 200-km-wide band extending from South Dakota to northern Michigan. The 4- to 8-inch snowfall within this band was not associated with major cyclogenesis, and developed 500 to 600 km north of a stationary surface front. A diagnostic analysis based on an application of the General Meteorological Package (GEMPAK 5.0) to a numerical simulation from the operational nested-grid model (NGM) is utilized to show that the development of this snow band is related to the interaction of two upper-tropospheric jet streaks and their associated transverse circulation patterns. The eastward propagation of a jet streak from the West Coast toward the middle United States and to the south of a slower-moving jet along the U.S.-Canadian border led to a merger of the ascent maxima associated with the direct and indirect circulations of the northern and southern jets, respectively. The snow band developed as the ascending branches of the jet-streak circulation patterns merged, with the eastward propagation of the heaviest snow linked to the motion of the coupled circulation pattern. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of the operational NGM for providing the higher-resolution datasets required to relate the evolution of jet-streak circulation patterns to the development of mesoscale precipitation bands.

Hakim, Gregory J.↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Based Aeroservoelastic Analysis with Hyper-X Applications

A finite element computational fluids dynamics-based aeroservoelastic analysis methodology is presented in this paper, in which both structural and fluids discretization are achieved by the finite element method, and their interaction is modeled by the transpiration boundary condition technique. In the fluids discipline either inviscid or viscous flow may be accounted for, usually employing unstructured grids.Adescription of a novel viscous flow solver employing unstructured grids is given in detail. Provisions are made for digital as well as analog controllers. These new aeroservoelastic analysis techniques are next applied for the solution of a number of example problems including the novel Hyper-X launch vehicle. Experimental and actual flight test data are also compared with analysis results that signify to the efficacy and accuracy of the newly developed solution procedures.

Gupta, K. K.↗

Buckling analysis and test correlation of high temperature structural panels

This paper focuses on the design, analysis, and test of a high temperature structural panel, constructed of Ti-6-4, subjected to a variety of thermal and mechanical load conditions. A follow-on panel, constructed of TMC, is also discussed in less detail. The design constraints and test set-up are discussed, as well as the test methods that were used: the grid shadow moire method and a single gage force stiffness method. The agreement between the test data and analysis for this test program provides confidence in the methods that are currently being used to design structures for hypersonic vehicles. The agreement also suggests that postbuckled strength may potentially be used to reduce the vehicle weight.

Teare, Wendy P.↗

The Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study - Interim Results: Electricity System Scenarios for 2030 [Slides]

Lithuania's Energy Vision aims to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity generation by 2035 and transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible while maintaining affordability, reliability, and energy security. The Lithuania Energy Agency (LEA) is partnering with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct the Lithuania 100% Renewable Energy Study (Lithuania 100) to provide evidence-based analysis for development of Lithuania's National Energy Independence Strategy. The Lithuania 100 Study leverages unique tools and capabilities of NREL to provide rigorous technical analysis of clean energy policies to achieve 100% renewable energy, and assess impacts on electricity grid operations, hydrogen system development, electricity distribution networks, air quality, and human health outcomes. The study is supported by a stakeholder committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy of Lithuania and implemented by four technical working groups. This report provides highlights of key interim results from modeling of Lithuania's near-term electricity grid through the year 2030. Results show that Lithuania has sufficient renewable energy potential, flexible generation capacity, and interconnection with neighboring European Union countries to reliably meet projected 2030 electricity demand with 100% renewable energy. A range of scenarios were modeled, each of which achieves at least 100% renewable energy in electricity, on average over the year, by 2030. Potential demands for hydrogen across industrial and transportation sectors were also evaluated, as well as the cost of hydrogen produced in Lithuania by 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit

Reliable long-term resource adequacy and grid planning in Hawaii require precise, multi-decadal meteorological records. This paper introduces the Hawaii Meteorology, Energy and Transmission (MET) Toolkit, a 26-year (2000-2025) high-fidelity atmospheric dataset developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). We present a validation study of the underlying WRF model configurations, comparing the legacy MYNN PBL scheme against an alternative YSU formulation. Using vertical lidar profiles and surface buoy data, our analysis identified a foundational geometric distortion in the legacy NOW-23 Hawaii dataset caused by an incorrect grid projection. When evaluated on a corrected, zero-distortion grid, the YSU scheme demonstrated superior performance in bias and cRMSE compared to the legacy setup. To address these findings, the MET Toolkit has been re-produced as a unified 26-year record using the optimized YSU setup and corrected geometry. This dataset offers the Hawaii power sector a robust, validated, and homogenous reference for future grid resilience and energy integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

National Combustion Code: Parallel Implementation and Performance

The National Combustion Code (NCC) is being developed by an industry-government team for the design and analysis of combustion systems. CORSAIR-CCD is the current baseline reacting flow solver for NCC. This is a parallel, unstructured grid code which uses a distributed memory, message passing model for its parallel implementation. The focus of the present effort has been to improve the performance of the NCC flow solver to meet combustor designer requirements for model accuracy and analysis turnaround time. Improving the performance of this code contributes significantly to the overall reduction in time and cost of the combustor design cycle. This paper describes the parallel implementation of the NCC flow solver and summarizes its current parallel performance on an SGI Origin 2000. Earlier parallel performance results on an IBM SP-2 are also included. The performance improvements which have enabled a turnaround of less than 15 hours for a 1.3 million element fully reacting combustion simulation are described.

Quealy, A.↗

Longwave surface radiation over the globe from satellite data - An error analysis

Errors have been analyzed for monthly-average downward and net longwave surface fluxes derived on a 5-deg equal-area grid over the globe, using a satellite technique. Meteorological data used in this technique are available from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) system flown aboard NOAA's operational sun-synchronous satellites. The data used are for February 1982 from NOAA-6 and NOAA-7 satellites. The errors in the parametrized equations were estimated by comparing their results with those from a detailed radiative transfer model. The errors in the TOVS-derived surface temperature, water vapor burden, and cloud cover were estimated by comparing these meteorological parameters with independent measurements obtained from other satellite sources. Analysis of the overall errors shows that the present technique could lead to underestimation of downward fluxes by 5 to 15 W/sq m and net fluxes by 4 to 12 W/sq m.

Gupta, S. K.↗

Faster-than-real-time Simulation with Demonstration for Resilient DER Integration

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. The Faster-than-real-time Simulation with demonstration for Resilient DER Integration project set out to do the following: a. Flatten the voltage profile through the feeders and system for cost saving and voltage stabilization needs. b. Increase the amount of intermittent distributed energy resources (IDERs) that could be deployed on a utility feeder and provide 100% or more energy needed for the demands on that feeder, and c. based on an accurate model (Digital Twin) of the utilities system, be able to detect any abnormalities on the utilities distribution system. To manage the voltage and increase IDER penetration (a,b), Graph Trace Analysis is employed in a time-series, optimal power flow to coordinate the time-varying feedback control setpoints of a distribution feeder’s utility control devices. Under the coordinated control are a Load Tap Changing Transformer, a voltage regulator, and five switched capacitor banks. The feeder serves over 2000 customers, the feeder secondaries are modeled, and the feeder has 2.3 MW of PV generation, corresponding to a 17.4% penetration of PV generation. The feeder model has over 12,000 components, where every customer load bus and PV generator are modeled. The accuracy of the power flow solution is compared against historical meter voltage measurements, the improvement in conservation voltage reduction energy savings as a function of the coordinated control desired voltage profile is investigated, and the increase in PV penetration of the coordinated control over the existing control is presented. To achieve improved control performance while observing system operation constraints, bellwether Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) voltage measurements are used to adjust the desired voltage profile used by the optimal power flow analysis. To detect and alleviate or negate attacks or failures on the distribution and transmission utility grids (c) the grid needs to be resilient and self-healing. In this project software was designed to do just that. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hard-ware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

Integrated System Model, Graph Trace Analysis, Adv↗

Solving differential‐algebraic equations in power system dynamic analysis with quantum computing

Abstract Power system dynamics are generally modeled by high dimensional non‐linear differential‐algebraic equations (DAEs) given a large number of components forming the network. These DAEs' complexity can grow exponentially due to the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, whereas their computation time becomes sensitive due to the increasing interconnection of the power grid with other energy systems. This paper demonstrates the use of quantum computing algorithms to solve DAEs for power system dynamic analysis. We leverage a symbolic programming framework to equivalently convert the power system's DAEs into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using index reduction methods and then encode their data into qubits using amplitude encoding. The system non‐linearity is captured by Hamiltonian simulation with truncated Taylor expansion so that state variables can be updated by a quantum linear equation solver. Our results show that quantum computing can solve the power system's DAEs accurately with a computational complexity polynomial in the logarithm of the system dimension. We also illustrate the use of recent advanced tools in scientific machine learning for implementing complex computing concepts, that is, Taylor expansion, DAEs/ODEs transformation, and quantum computing solver with abstract representation for power engineering applications.

computational complexity↗

Preconditioned domain decomposition scheme for three-dimensional aerodynamic sensitivity analysis

A discrete sensitivity analysis algorithm had previously been developed and applied to two-dimensional aerodynamic optimization problems, where the computational domains were discretized by using single grids. The sparse, unsymmetric systems of linear equations resulting from this algorithm were solved by a direct matrix inversion matrix. However, for large two-dimensional problems and, practically, all three-dimensional problems, direct inversion methods become inapplicable, primarily due to the prohibitive computer storage needed. In an attempt to alleviate such hindrances, the sensitivity analysis with domain decomposition (SADD) scheme was developed. This scheme divides the computational domain into smaller and nonoverlapping subdomains (multiblock grids) that are solved separately. Then, the final solution is constructed from the subdomain solutions. As the number of grid points in the interface boundaries of the subdomains becomes large, the computer memory required to store the effective coefficient matrix of these interface points starts to increase. Presented in this Technical Note is a preconditioned iterative procedure to overcome this particular problem.

Eleshaky, Mohamed E.↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Atmospheric model development in support of SEASAT. Volume 2: Analysis models

As part of the SEASAT program of NASA, two sets of analysis programs were developed for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. One set of programs produce 63 x 63 horizontal mesh analyses on a polar stereographic grid. The other set produces 187 x 187 third mesh analyses. The parameters analyzed include sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and twelve levels of upper air temperature, height and wind analyses. The analysis output is used to initialize the primitive equation forecast models.

Langland, R. A.↗

Development of an Aeroelastic Modeling Capability for Transient Nozzle Side Load Analysis

Lateral nozzle forces are known to cause severe structural damage to any new rocket engine in development. Currently there is no fully coupled computational tool to analyze this fluid/structure interaction process. The objective of this study was to develop a fully coupled aeroelastic modeling capability to describe the fluid/structure interaction process during the transient nozzle operations. The aeroelastic model composes of three components: the computational fluid dynamics component based on an unstructured-grid, pressure-based computational fluid dynamics formulation, the computational structural dynamics component developed in the framework of modal analysis, and the fluid-structural interface component. The developed aeroelastic model was applied to the transient nozzle startup process of the Space Shuttle Main Engine at sea level. The computed nozzle side loads and the axial nozzle wall pressure profiles from the aeroelastic nozzle are compared with those of the published rigid nozzle results, and the impact of the fluid/structure interaction on nozzle side loads is interrogated and presented.

Wang, Ten-See↗

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Commercialization of microcavity plasma devices and arrays: Systems for VUV photolithography and nanopatterning, disinfection of drinking water and air, and biofilm deactivation for medical therapeutics

Abstract A little more than two decades after the introduction of the first microcavity plasma devices, a growing body of commercial products based on the remarkable properties of these low‐temperature, atmospheric plasmas is now available. Following a brief review of early microplasma lamp development, this article describes microplasma‐based devices and systems currently being manufactured for applications in photolithography, photopatterning, and other nanofabrication processes, such as atomic layer deposition, spectroscopic identification and analysis of materials (including wide bandgap crystals), the disinfection of drinking water in off‐grid communities, deactivating COVID‐19 and other pathogens in air and on surfaces in public spaces, and vacuum ultraviolet lamps for driving atomic clocks. The microplasma‐based treatment of otitis media in the human ear will also be discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

JTAG-based PLC memory acquisition framework for industrial control systems

In industrial control systems (ICS), programmable logic controllers (PLC) are the embedded devices that directly control and monitor critical industrial infrastructure processes such as nuclear plants and power grid stations. Cyberattacks often target PLCs to sabotage a physical process. A memory forensic analysis of a suspect PLC can answer questions about an attack, including compromised firmware and manipulation of PLC control logic code and I/O devices. Given physical access to a PLC, collecting forensic information from the PLC memory at the hardware-level is risky and challenging. It may cause the PLC to crash or hang since PLCs have proprietary, legacy hardware with heterogeneous architecture. This paper addresses this research problem and proposes a novel JTAG (Joint Test Action Group)-based framework, Kyros, for reliable PLC memory acquisition. Kyros systematically creates a JTAG profile of a PLC through hardware assessment, JTAG pins identification, memory map creation, and optimizing acquisition parameters. It also facilitates the community of interest (such as ICS owners, operators, and vendors) to develop the JTAG profiles of PLCs. Further, we present a case study of Kyros implementation over Allen-Bradley 1756-A10/B to help understand the framework's application on a real-world PLC used in industry settings. The sample PLC memory dumps are shared with the research community to facilitate further research.

Rais, Muhammad Haris↗

Nondestructive Analysis of Commercial Batteries

Electrochemical batteries play a crucial role for powering portable electronics, electric vehicles, large-scale electric grids, and future electric aircraft. However, key performance metrics such as energy density, charging speed, lifespan, and safety raise significant consumer concerns. Enhancing battery performance hinges on a deep understanding of their operational and degradation mechanisms, from material composition and electrode structure to large-scale pack integration, necessitating advanced characterization methods. These methods not only enable improved battery performance but also facilitate early detection of substandard or potentially hazardous batteries before they cause serious incidents. Here, this review comprehensively examines the operational principles, applications, challenges, and prospects of cutting-edge characterization techniques for commercial batteries, with a specific focus on in situ and operando methodologies. Furthermore, it explores how these powerful tools have elucidated the operational and degradation mechanisms of commercial batteries. By bridging the gap between advanced characterization techniques and commercial battery technologies, this review aims to guide the design of more sophisticated experiments and models for studying battery degradation and enhancement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗