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DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Blockchain-Based Decentralized Data Storage and Access Framework for PingER

The blockchain is an innovative technology which opened doors to new applications for solving numerous problems in distributed environments. In this study, we design a blockchain-based data storage and access framework for PingER (worldwide end-to-end Internet performance measurement project) to remove its total dependence on a centralized repository. We use the permissioned blockchain and Distributed Hash Tables (DHT) for this purpose. In the proposed framework, metadata of the files are stored on the blockchain whereas the actual files are stored off-chain through DHT at multiple locations using a peer-to-peer network of PingER Monitoring Agents. Lastly, this will provide decentralized storage, distributed processing, and efficient lookup capabilities to the PingER framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transmission-and-Distribution Dynamic Co-simulation Framework for Distributed Energy Resource Frequency Response

The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) in distribution networks has made it challenging to balance the transmission system and stabilize frequency. DERs have the ability to provide frequency regulation services; however, existing frequency dynamic simulation tools - which were developed mainly for the transmission system - lack the capability to simulate distribution network dynamics with high penetrations of DERs. Although electromagnetic transient simulation tools can simulate distribution network dynamics, the computation efficiency limits their use for large-scale transmission-and-distribution (T&D) co-simulation. This paper presents an efficient open-source T&D dynamic co-simulation framework for DER frequency response based on the HELICS platform and off-the-shelf T&D simulators. The challenge of synchronizing the simulation time between the transmission network and the DERs in the distribution network is solved through the detailed modeling of DERs in frequency dynamic models while DER power flow models are also preserved in the distribution networks, thereby respecting local voltage constraints when dispatching DER power for frequency response. DER frequency response (primary and secondary) is simulated in case studies to validate the proposed framework. Last, the accuracy of the proposed co-simulation model is benchmarked, and a large T&D system simulation (2k transmission and 1M distribution nodes) is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the overall framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Framework for Parametric Analysis of Coastal Transition Zone Modeling

Abstract Vulnerability of coastal regions to extreme events motivates an operational coupled inland‐coastal modeling strategy focusing on the coastal transition zone (CTZ), an area between the coast and upland river. To tackle this challenge, we propose a top‐down framework for investigating the contribution of different processes to the hydrodynamics of CTZs with various geometrical shapes, different physical properties, and under several forcing conditions. We further propose a novel method, called tidal vanishing point (TVP), for delineating the extent of CTZs through the upland. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework over the United States East and Gulf coasts. We categorize CTZs in the region into three classes, namely, without estuary (direct river–coast connection), triangular‐, and trapezoidal‐shaped estuary. The results show that although semidiurnal tidal constituents are dominant in most cases, diurnal tidal constituents become more prevalent in the river segment as the discharge increases. Also, decreasing the bed roughness value promotes more significant changes in the results than increasing it by the same value. Additionally, the estuary promotes tidal energy attenuation and consequently decreases the reach of tidal signals through the upland. The proposed framework is generic and extensible to any coastal region.

Chegini, Taher↗

DOE OSTI2025

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

DOE OSTI2020

Circular economy framework for automobiles: Closing energy and material loops

Abstract Corporations, including automotive manufacturers, are increasingly exploring extended circular economy strategies as a means to enhance the sustainability of their products. The circular economy paradigm focuses on reducing nonrenewable materials and energy, promoting renewable feedstocks and energy, and keeping products/materials in use across the life cycle of a system. As such, life cycle environmental burdens associated with vehicle manufacturing, use, and disposal could potentially be reduced through circular economy strategies; however, no such comprehensive circular economy framework currently exists for the automotive industry. We develop the first circular economy schematic of automobiles, derived from the Ellen MacArthur Foundation's framework. Further, we characterize the current automotive circular economy using metrics of renewable energy and recycled materials. Specifically, for current U.S. average sedans, we find that internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) use ∼6% renewable life cycle primary energy and 27% recycled materials; for battery electric vehicles (BEVs), these measures are ∼8% and 21%, respectively. On a vehicle‐miles‐traveled basis, BEVs use ∼47% less nonrenewable life cycle primary energy than ICEVs, highlighting the importance of electrification as a strategy for automotive manufacturers to reduce environmental burdens. Our proposed circular economy framework is then applied to Ford Motor Company's sustainability programs and initiatives as an example. This schematic aims to provide a starting point for the automotive industry to operationalize circular economy strategies, the application of which could advance its overall sustainability performance.

Aguilar Esteva, Laura C.↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Model-Based Framework for Air Quality Indices and Population Risk Evaluation, with an Application to the Analysis of Scottish Air Quality Data

Summary The paper is devoted to the development of a statistical framework for air quality assessment at the country level and for the evaluation of the ambient population exposure and risk with respect to airborne pollutants. The framework is based on a multivariate space–time model and on aggregated indices defined at different levels of aggregation in space and time. The indices are evaluated, uncertainty included, by considering both the model outputs and the information on the population spatial distribution. The framework is applied to the analysis of air quality data for Scotland for 2009 referring to European and Scottish air quality legislation.

Unbalanced networks↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Prognostics and Health Management Framework for Wind

Operation and maintenance costs are a major driver for levelized cost of energy of wind power plants and can be reduced through optimized operation and maintenance practices accomplishable by various prognostics and health management (PHM) technologies. In recent years, the wind industry has become more open to adopting PHM solutions, especially those focusing on diagnostics. However, prognostics activities are, in general, still at the research and development stage. On the other hand, the industry has a request to estimate a component's remaining useful life (RUL) when it has faulted, and this is a key output of prognostics. Systematically presenting PHM technologies to the wind industry by highlighting the RUL prediction need potentially helps speed up its acceptance and provides more benefits from PHM to the industry. In this paper, we introduce a PHM for wind framework. It highlights specifics unique to wind turbines and features integration of data and physics domain information and models. The output of the framework focuses on RUL prediction. To demonstrate its application, a data domain method for wind turbine gearbox fault diagnostics is presented. It uses supervisory control and data acquisition system time series data, normalizes gearbox temperature measurements with reference to environmental temperature and turbine power, and leverages big data analytics and machine-learning techniques to make the model scalable and the diagnostics process automatic. Another physics-domain modeling method for RUL prediction of wind turbine gearbox high-speed-stage bearings failed by axial cracks is also discussed. Bearing axial cracking has been shown to be the prevalent wind turbine gearbox failure mode experienced in the field and is different from rolling contact fatigue, which is targeted during the bearing design stage. The method uses probability of failure as a component reliability assessment and RUL prediction metric, which can be expanded to other drivetrain components or failure modes. The presented PHM for wind framework is generic and applicable to both land-based and offshore wind turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

A COMPUTATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF METAL AND COVALENT ORGANIC FRAMEWORKS USED IN ADSORPTION COOLING

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) have recently attracted enormous interest over the past few years due to their potential applications in energy storage and gas separation. However, there have been few reports on MOFs for adsorption cooling applications. Adsorption cooling technology is an established alternative to mechanical vapor compression refrigeration systems. Adsorption cooling is an excellent alternative in industrial environments where waste heat is available. Applications also include hybrid systems, refrigeration, power-plant dry cooling, cryogenics, vehicular systems and building HVAC. Adsorption based cooling and refrigeration systems have several advantages including few moving parts and negligible power consumption. Key disadvantages include large thermal mass, bulkiness, complex controls, and low COP (0.2-0.5). We explored the use of metal organic frameworks that have very high mass loading and relatively low heats of adsorption, with certain combinations of refrigerants to demonstrate a new type of highly efficient adsorption chiller. An adsorption chiller based on MOFs suggests that a thermally-driven COP>1 may be possible with these materials, which would represent a fundamental breakthrough in performance of adsorption chiller technology. Computational fluid dynamics combined with a system level lumped-parameter model have been used to project size and performance for chillers with a cooling capacity ranging from a few kW to several thousand kW. In addition, a cost model has been developed to project manufactured cost of entire systems. These systems rely on stacked micro/mini-scale architectures to enhance heat and mass transfer. Presented herein are computational and experimental results for hydrophyilic MOFs, fluorophilic MOFs and also flourophilic Covalent-organic frameworks (COFs).

adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2013

Design of a digital beam attenuation system for computed tomography: Part I. System design and simulation framework

Purpose: The purpose of this work is to introduce a new device that allows for patient-specific imaging-dose modulation in conventional and cone-beam CT. The device is called a digital beam attenuator (DBA). The DBA modulates an x-ray beam by varying the attenuation of a set of attenuating wedge filters across the fan angle. The ability to modulate the imaging dose across the fan beam represents another stride in the direction of personalized medicine. With the DBA, imaging dose can be tailored for a given patient anatomy, or even tailored to provide signal-to-noise ratio enhancement within a region of interest. This modulation enables decreases in: dose, scatter, detector dynamic range requirements, and noise nonuniformities. In addition to introducing the DBA, the simulation framework used to study the DBA under different configurations is presented. Finally, a detailed study on the choice of the material used to build the DBA is presented. Methods: To change the attenuator thickness, the authors propose to use an overlapping wedge design. In this design, for each wedge pair, one wedge is held stationary and another wedge is moved over the stationary wedge. The composite thickness of the two wedges changes as a function of the amount of overlap between the wedges. To validate the DBA concept and study design changes, a simulation environment was constructed. The environment allows for changes to system geometry, different source spectra, DBA wedge design modifications, and supports both voxelized and analytic phantom models. A study of all the elements from atomic number 1 to 92 were evaluated for use as DBA filter material. The amount of dynamic range and tube loading for each element were calculated for various DBA designs. Tube loading was calculated by comparing the attenuation of the DBA at its minimum attenuation position to a filtered non-DBA acquisition. Results: The design and parametrization of DBA implemented FFMCT has been introduced. A simulation framework was presented with which DBA-FFMCT, bowtie filter CT acquisitions, and unmodulated CT acquisitions can be simulated. The study on wedge filter design concluded that the ideal filter material should have an atomic number in the range of 21-34. Iron was chosen for an experimental relative-tube-loading measurement and showed that DBA-FFMCT scans could be acquired with negligible increases in tube power demands. Conclusions: The basic idea of DBA implemented fluence field modulated CT, a simulation framework to verify the concept, and a filter selection study have been presented. The use of a DBA represents another step toward the ultimate in patient specific CT dose delivery as patient dose can be delivered uniquely as a function of view and fan angle using this device.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-127: Real-Time Dosimetric Assessment for Adaptive Head-And-Neck Treatment Via A GPU-Based Deformable Image Registration Framework

Purposes: To systematically monitor anatomic variations and their dosimetric consequences during head-and-neck (H'N) radiation therapy using a GPU-based deformable image registration (DIR) framework. Methods: Eleven H'N IMRT patients comprised the subject population. The daily megavoltage CT and weekly kVCT scans were acquired for each patient. The pre-treatment CTs were automatically registered with their corresponding planning CT through an in-house GPU-based DIR framework. The deformation of each contoured structure was computed to account for non-rigid change in the patient setup. The Jacobian determinant for the PTVs and critical structures was used to quantify anatomical volume changes. Dose accumulation was performed to determine the actual delivered dose and dose accumulation. A landmark tool was developed to determine the uncertainty in the dose distribution due to registration error. Results: Dramatic interfraction anatomic changes leading to dosimetric variations were observed. During the treatment courses of 6–7 weeks, the parotid gland volumes changed up to 34.7%, the center-of-mass displacement of the two parotids varied in the range of 0.9–8.8mm. Mean doses were within 5% and 3% of the planned mean doses for all PTVs and CTVs, respectively. The cumulative minimum/mean/EUD doses were lower than the planned doses by 18%, 2%, and 7%, respectively for the PTV1. The ratio of the averaged cumulative cord maximum doses to the plan was 1.06±0.15. The cumulative mean doses assessed by the weekly kVCTs were significantly higher than the planned dose for the left-parotid (p=0.03) and right-parotid gland (p=0.006). The computation time was nearly real-time (∼ 45 seconds) for registering each pre-treatment CT to the planning CT and dose accumulation with registration accuracy (for kVCT) at sub-voxel level (<1.5mm). Conclusions: Real-time assessment of anatomic and dosimetric variations is feasible using the GPU-based DIR framework. Clinical implementation of this technology may enable timely plan adaption and potentially lead to improved outcome.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

A general framework of noise suppression in material decomposition for dual-energy CT

Purpose: As a general problem of dual-energy CT (DECT), noise amplification in material decomposition severely reduces the signal-to-noise ratio on the decomposed images compared to that on the original CT images. In this work, the authors propose a general framework of noise suppression in material decomposition for DECT. The method is based on an iterative algorithm recently developed in their group for image-domain decomposition of DECT, with an extension to include nonlinear decomposition models. The generalized framework of iterative DECT decomposition enables beam-hardening correction with simultaneous noise suppression, which improves the clinical benefits of DECT. Methods: The authors propose to suppress noise on the decomposed images of DECT using convex optimization, which is formulated in the form of least-squares estimation with smoothness regularization. Based on the design principles of a best linear unbiased estimator, the authors include the inverse of the estimated variance–covariance matrix of the decomposed images as the penalty weight in the least-squares term. Analytical formulas are derived to compute the variance–covariance matrix for decomposed images with general-form numerical or analytical decomposition. As a demonstration, the authors implement the proposed algorithm on phantom data using an empirical polynomial function of decomposition measured on a calibration scan. The polynomial coefficients are determined from the projection data acquired on a wedge phantom, and the signal decomposition is performed in the projection domain. Results: On the Catphan{sup ®}600 phantom, the proposed noise suppression method reduces the average noise standard deviation of basis material images by one to two orders of magnitude, with a superior performance on spatial resolution as shown in comparisons of line-pair images and modulation transfer function measurements. On the synthesized monoenergetic CT images, the noise standard deviation is reduced by a factor of 2–3. By using nonlinear decomposition on projections, the authors’ method effectively suppresses the streaking artifacts of beam hardening and obtains more uniform images than their previous approach based on a linear model. Similar performance of noise suppression is observed in the results of an anthropomorphic head phantom and a pediatric chest phantom generated by the proposed method. With beam-hardening correction enabled by their approach, the image spatial nonuniformity on the head phantom is reduced from around 10% on the original CT images to 4.9% on the synthesized monoenergetic CT image. On the pediatric chest phantom, their method suppresses image noise standard deviation by a factor of around 7.5, and compared with linear decomposition, it reduces the estimation error of electron densities from 33.3% to 8.6%. Conclusions: The authors propose a general framework of noise suppression in material decomposition for DECT. Phantom studies have shown the proposed method improves the image uniformity and the accuracy of electron density measurements by effective beam-hardening correction and reduces noise level without noticeable resolution loss.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Two-dimensional sp 2 carbon–conjugated covalent organic frameworks

In this work, we synthesized a two-dimensional (2D) crystalline covalent organic framework (sp 2 c-COF) that was designed to be fully π-conjugated and constructed from all sp 2 carbons by C=C condensation reactions of tetrakis(4-formylphenyl)pyrene and 1,4-phenylenediacetonitrile. The C=C linkages topologically connect pyrene knots at regular intervals into a 2D lattice with π conjugations extended along both x and y directions and develop an eclipsed layer framework rather than the more conventionally obtained disordered structures. The sp 2 c-COF is a semiconductor with a discrete band gap of 1.9 electron volts and can be chemically oxidized to enhance conductivity by 12 orders of magnitude. The generated radicals are confined on the pyrene knots, enabling the formation of a paramagnetic carbon structure with high spin density. The sp 2 carbon framework induces ferromagnetic phase transition to develop spin-spin coherence and align spins unidirectionally across the material.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reactive high-spin iron(IV)-oxo sites through dioxygen activation in a metal–organic framework

In nature, nonheme iron enzymes use dioxygen to generate high-spin iron(IV)=O species for a variety of oxygenation reactions. Although synthetic chemists have long sought to mimic this reactivity, the enzyme-like activation of O 2 to form high-spin iron(IV) = O species remains an unrealized goal. Here, we report a metal–organic framework featuring iron(II) sites with a local structure similar to that in α-ketoglutarate-dependent dioxygenases. The framework reacts with O 2 at low temperatures to form high-spin iron(IV) = O species that are characterized using in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform, in situ and variable-field Mössbauer, Fe Kβ x-ray emission, and nuclear resonance vibrational spectroscopies. In the presence of O 2 , the framework is competent for catalytic oxygenation of cyclohexane and the stoichiometric conversion of ethane to ethanol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

The cosmic muon and detector simulation framework of the extreme energy events (EEE) experiment

Abstract This paper describes the simulation framework of the extreme energy events (EEE) experiment. EEE is a network of cosmic muon trackers, each made of three multi-gap resistive plate chambers (MRPC), able to precisely measure the absolute muon crossing time and the muon integrated angular flux at the ground level. The response of a single MRPC and the combination of three chambers have been implemented in a GEANT4-based framework (GEMC) to study the telescope response. The detector geometry, as well as details about the surrounding materials and the location of the telescopes have been included in the simulations in order to realistically reproduce the experimental set-up of each telescope. A model based on the latest parametrization of the cosmic muon flux has been used to generate single muon events. After validating the framework by comparing simulations to selected EEE telescope data, it has been used to determine detector parameters not accessible by analysing experimental data only, such as detection efficiency, angular and spatial resolution.

Abbrescia, M.↗