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MARS 2020 Backshell Radiative Heating Measurement and Shock Tube Verification

In February 2021, the Perseverance rover was brought to the surface of Mars by the Mars 2020 mission. A feature of the Mars 2020 capsule was instrumentation to measure its entry, descent and landing (EDL) with the so-called Mars EDL Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) [1]. The MEDLI2 introduced, among other things, backshell instrumentation, including a broadband radiometer. The radiometer was mounted on the leeside of the vehicle next to thermocouple plugs and a heat flux gauge. The data returned by the leeside MEDLI2 heat flux gauge is largely analogous to that measured by the COMARS gauge flown on the ExoMars Schiaparelli [2] entry in that it is measuring heat flux in an area that is entirely dominated by radiative heating. The COMARS measurement provided excellent validation of backshell radiative heating models for Mars entry, albeit at a limited number of points [3]. The MEDLI2 heat flux gauge measurement effectively confirmed the quality of the prediction, extended over the full trajectory, as will be presented in this paper. The MEDLI2 radiometer,however, was blocked by ablation products and suffered a loss of half of its signal. The second backshell heat flux gauge installed on the windside of the vehicle was also well predicted, although the heating had both radiative and convective contributions. It was desired to reproduce the conditions of the Mars 2020 entry via ground testing in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames. Tests to verify stagnation line heating were previously reported in EAST, confirming the presence of shock layer radiation as the major discrepancy in heatshield temperature modelling [4]. Therefore, tests for stagnation line heating were not repeated. Instead, the shock tube informed bias method [5, 6] was used to identify test conditions that may produce similarity to streamlines that pass around the backside of the vehicle and are responsible for the radiation observed at the two heat flux gauge locations. This method was used to identify a range of velocities and densities in the shock tube that are relevant for confirming the radiative environment encountered. This paper reports the results obtained in the 10 cm diameter EAST shock tube, corresponding to later trajectory points at ambient pressures of 1.1-2.0 Torr and velocities from 1.2-3.5 km/s. The test series employed two primary diagnostics: emission spectroscopy and tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy (TDLAS). The emission spectroscopy performed broadband measurements of the radiative emission of the 4.3 and 2.7 m bands of CO2 at flight similar conditions, obtaining both spectral and spatial data corresponding to the relaxation behind the shock front. The TDLAS measured the absorption of several lines of CO and CO2 and obtains species number densities and temperatures as a function of time behind the shock front. This paper will review highlights of this test series and analyses of the emission and absorption data. While the datasets generally show good agreement with predictions, a few discrepancies and items for additional investigation are identified and will be discussed

Brett A Cruden↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cause of a Lower-Tropospheric High-Ozone Layer in Spring Over Hanoi

The ozonesonde observations in Hanoi, Vietnam, over fourteen years since 2004 have confirmed the enhancement in lower tropospheric ozone concentration at about 3 km altitude in the spring season. We investigated the evolution of the ozone enhancement from analysis of meteorological data, backward trajectories, and model sensitivity experiments. In spring, air masses over Hanoi exhibit strong height dependence. At 3km, the high-ozone air masses originate from the land area to the west of Hanoi, while low-ozone air masses below about 1.5 km are from the oceanic area to the east. Above 4 km, the air masses are mostly traced back to the farther west area. The chemical transport model simulations revealed that precursor emissions from biomass burning in the inland Indochina Peninsula have the largest contribution to the lower tropospheric ozone enhancement, which is transported upward and eastward and overhangs the clean air intrusion from the ocean to the east of Hanoi. At this height level, the polluted air has the horizontal extent of about 20 degrees in longitude and latitude. The polluted air observed in Hanoi is transported further east and widely spread over the northern Pacific Ocean.

tropospheric ozone↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cause of a Lower-Tropospheric High-Ozone Layer in Spring Over Hanoi

Hanoi↗

NASA NTRS2022

Mid-Infrared Imaging of Supernova 1987A

At a distance of 50 kpc, Supernova 1987A is an ideal target to study how a young supernova (SN) evolves in time. Its equatorial ring, filled with material expelled from the progenitor star about 20 000 yr ago, has been engulfed with SN blast waves. Shocks heat dust grains in the ring, emitting their energy at mid-infrared (IR) wavelengths We present ground-based 10–18 μm monitoring of the ring of SN 1987A from day 6067 to 12814 at a resolution of 0.5 arcsec, together with SOFIA photometry at 10–30 μm. The IR images in the 2000’s (day 6067–7242) showed that the shocks first began brightening the east side of the ring. Later, our mid-IR images from 2017 to 2022 (day 10952–12714) show that dust emission is now fading in the east, while it has brightened on the west side of the ring. Because dust grains are heated in the shocked plasma, which can emit X-rays, the IR and X-ray brightness ratio represent shock diagnostics. Until 2007 the IR to X-ray brightness ratio remained constant over time, and during this time shocks seemed to be largely influencing the east side of the ring. However, since then, the IR to X-ray ratio has been declining, due to increased X-ray brightness. Whether the declining IR brightness is because of dust grains being destroyed or being cooled in the post-shock regions will require more detailed modelling.

Mikako Matsuura↗

NASA NTRS2024

JWST Mid-Infrared Spectroscopy Resolves Gas, Dust, and Ice in Young Stellar Objects in the Large Magellanic Cloud

In this work, we present spectra of 11 young stellar objects (YSOs) taken with the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) / Medium Resolution Spectroscopy (MRS) instrument onboard the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The YSOs are located in the N79 region of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), an active star forming region with hundreds of Spitzer - and Herschel-identified YSOs and host to super star cluster (SSC) candidate H72.97-69.39. The three giant molecular clouds (GMCs) in N79 (East, West, and South) have varying star formation rates and stellar populations. MRS follow-up observations of four Spitzer -identified YSOs in N79 East, West, and South reveal that what seemed to be a single, massive YSO is actually a cluster of YSOs. We discuss the emission and absorption lines of six YSOs which have complete or almost-complete spectral coverage from 4.9 – 27.9 µm. YSO Y3, located in N79 East, is the youngest source in this study and likely to be less than 10,000 years old inferred from the prominent CH 4 , NH 3 , CH 3 OH, CH 3 OCHO, and CO 2 ice absorption features. The most luminous source is the central ionizing YSO of SSC H72.97-69.39, Y4, which has dozens of fine-structure and H 2 emission lines. Unlike the other YSOs in this work, Y4 has no polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emission lines due to the intense ionizing radiation destroying these large carbon chain molecules. The mass accretion rate based on H I (7-6) line luminosity of YSOs Y1, Y2, Y4, and Y9 range between 1.22 × 10 −4 – 1.89 × 10 −2 M ⊙ yr −1 For the first time in the mid-infrared, we are able to resolve individual high-mass protostars forming in small clusters in an extra-galactic environment like the LMC.

Omnarayni Nayak↗

DOE OSTI2014

2D Seismic Reflection Data across Central Illinois

In a continuing collaboration with the Midwest Geologic Sequestration Consortium (MGSC) on the Evaluation of the Carbon Sequestration Potential of the Cambro-Ordovician Strata of the Illinois and Michigan Basins project, Schlumberger Carbon Services and WesternGeco acquired two-dimensional (2D) seismic data in the Illinois Basin. This work included the design, acquisition and processing of approximately 125 miles of (2D) seismic reflection surveys running west to east in the central Illinois Basin. Schlumberger Carbon Services and WesternGeco oversaw the management of the field operations (including a pre-shoot planning, mobilization, acquisition and de-mobilization of the field personnel and equipment), procurement of the necessary permits to conduct the survey, post-shoot closure, processing of the raw data, and provided expert consultation as needed in the interpretation of the delivered product. Three 2D seismic lines were acquired across central Illinois during November and December 2010 and January 2011. Traversing the Illinois Basin, this 2D seismic survey was designed to image the stratigraphy of the Cambro-Ordovician sections and also to discern the basement topography. Prior to this survey, there were no regionally extensive 2D seismic data spanning this section of the Illinois Basin. Between the NW side of Morgan County and northwestern border of Douglas County, these seismic lines ran through very rural portions of the state. Starting in Morgan County, Line 101 was the longest at 93 miles in length and ended NE of Decatur, Illinois. Line 501 ran W-E from the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) site to northwestern Douglas County and was 25 miles in length. Line 601 was the shortest and ran N-S past the IBDP site and connected lines 101 and 501. All three lines are correlated to well logs at the IBDP site. Originally processed in 2011, the 2D seismic profiles exhibited a degradation of signal quality below ~400 millisecond (ms) which made interpretation of the Mt. Simon and Knox sections difficult. The data quality also gradually decreased moving westward across the state. To meet evolving project objectives, in 2012 the seismic data was re-processed using different techniques to enhance the signal quality thereby rendering a more coherent seismic profile for interpreters. It is believed that the seismic degradation could be caused by shallow natural gas deposits and Quaternary sediments (which include abandoned river and stream channels, former ponds, and swamps with peat deposits) that may have complicated or changed the seismic wavelet. Where previously limited by seismic coverage, the seismic profiles have provided valuable subsurface information across central Illinois. Some of the interpretations based on this survey included, but are not limited to: - Stratigraphy generally gently dips to the east from Morgan to Douglas County. - The Knox Supergroup roughly maintains its thickness. There is little evidence for faulting in the Knox. However, at least one resolvable fault penetrates the entire Knox section. - The Eau Claire Formation, the primary seal for the Mt. Simon Sandstone, appears to be continuous across the entire seismic profile. - The Mt. Simon Sandstone thins towards the western edge of the basin. As a result, the highly porous lowermost Mt. Simon section is absent in the western part of the state. - Overall basement dip is from west to east. - Basement topography shows evidence of basement highs with on-lapping patterns by Mt. Simon sediments. - There is evidence of faults within the lower Mt. Simon Sandstone and basement rock that are contemporaneous with Mt. Simon Sandstone deposition. These faults are not active and do not penetrate the Eau Claire Shale. It is believed that these faults are associated with a possible failed rifting event 750 to 560 million years ago during the breakup of the supercontinent Rodinia.

Smith, Valerie↗

DOE OSTI2015

International scientific collaboration: the Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) project.

Detecting the presence of radioactive sources, preventing the illicit use of radiological materials, supporting arms control treaties, responding to accidental radiation releases, and disposing of radioactive sources safely and securely are common concerns in the Middle East. The Radiation Measurements Cross Calibration (RMCC) project aims to improve radiation measurement capabilities across the region and establish common standards. The RMCC project has been an ongoing initiative for the last twelve years. Its goal is to build core competencies in radioanalysis in the Middle East by facilitating the exchange of expertise and fostering dialogue to improve methods and strengthen a growing network. This year the Middle East Scientific Institute for Security (MESIS) in Amman, Jordan assumed leadership of the RMCC.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2019

Stability of a Uranium-Contaminated Plume in a Karst Aquifer in Northwest New Mexico - 19574

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management monitors groundwater contamination resulting from ore processing operations conducted between 1953 and 1982 at a former uranium mill site on property that is now part of the Bluewater, New Mexico, Disposal Site. The site is located in the Grants Mineral Belt in northwest New Mexico at the base of the Zuni Mountains. It is estimated that prior to mill tailings encapsulation in 1995, approximately 21.6 billion liters (5.7 billion gallons) of tailings fluid seeped from the main tailings impoundment into the underlying aquifers. Today, there is remnant groundwater contamination from the mill in two aquifers: the San Andres-Glorieta (SAG) bedrock aquifer and the Ancestral Rio San Jose alluvial aquifer. Groundwater contamination in the SAG aquifer is of particular concern, as the aquifer is the primary water source in the region for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. Municipal wells for the region are located as close as 6.4 kilometers (4 miles) southeast of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell. The SAG uranium plume extends east for more than 4.8 kilometers (3 miles) beyond the site's eastern boundary, along the direction of groundwater flow. The plume intersects the Homestake Mining Company site, another former uranium mill site undergoing active remediation. The SAG aquifer contains two formations, the Lower Permian San Andres Limestone and the Glorieta Sandstone. Most of the groundwater moving through the SAG aquifer is in ancient karst features consisting of open conduits where the limestone has dissolved, resulting in flow through solution cavities, solution channels, cavernous zones, and enlarged fracture openings. These features make the San Andres Limestone extremely permeable and capable of rapidly transporting groundwater. In addition, the karst characteristics make the aquifer difficult to evaluate and the uranium plume difficult to characterize. Numerous faults in the area, including two directly under the Main Tailings Disposal Cell, further complicate characterization by impacting groundwater flow both onsite and in the vicinity. A DOE study of the SAG aquifer uranium plume at the Bluewater site, conducted in 2014, indicated that the plume had moved offsite soon after the start of milling and effectively stabilized in its present location prior to the 1980's. An updated study completed in 2018 confirmed previous information regarding general plume stability and provided insight regarding potential localized trends east and south of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell. One such trend may be decreasing uranium concentrations east of the Main Tailings Disposal Cell, potentially attributable to regional groundwater elevation decreases. Both the 2013 and 2017 plumes suggest that the dissolved uranium contamination is derived from the leaching of a secondary mineralized zone derived from seeped tailings fluids in the geologic formations and fault zones below the Main Tailings Disposal Cell at the Bluewater site. In developing the 2013 and 2017 SAG aquifer uranium plume depictions, DOE had to address challenges associated with data quality and comparability. Analytical results used to determine the plume extent were compiled from multiple sources, including the state of New Mexico, Homestake Mining Company, and DOE. Each source used different well identifiers and coordinate systems, and well information between sources was inconsistent. Also, the integrity of some wells was questionable and necessitated review; casing integrity was found to be compromised in multiple wells. Given these uncertainties, some of these wells were excluded from the characterization. Another source of uncertainty is the paucity of wells, particularly monitoring wells, near or immediately downgradient of the leading edge of the plume. Therefore, the exact extent of the SAG aquifer uranium plume is not known at this time. There is, however, no evidence or indication of milling-related contamination in municipal wells. Furthermore, due to plume stability and direction of groundwater flow, the municipal wells are not expected to be impacted. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Session 097C - Panel: Reuse of Federal Land on the Oak Ridge Reservation, TN (3/4) (R.16c)

This panel was to focus on what is being done to enable federal reuse across the DOE's Oak Ridge Reservation, including how the Community Reuse Organization of East Tennessee (CROET) plays a critical role, how the community is benefiting, and the experience of the private sector companies now occupying the site. The Panelists were to discuss how resources from the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) are being transitioned to support cleanup efforts that enable critical NNSA and Office of Science missions. This session integrated with panel sessions 97A, 97B, and 97D. Panelists with presentations: Community Reuse Organization of East Tennessee (CROET) (Ryan Overton); Community Perspective (Ron Woody); ETTP Tenant Point of View (Bradley Spears); Enabling NNSA and Office of Science Missions (Stephen Phillips); Enabling Federal Land Reuse (David Adler)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Used Nuclear Fuel Management in Asia

Used fuel discharged from nuclear reactors are presently stored in wet pools or in dry cask at-reactor and/or away-from- reactor sites. Only a few countries reprocess their civilian used fuel, notably France, Russia, and UK. No country has yet operated a geologic repository to dispose of civilian used fuel or high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). As a result, the management and disposal of used fuel and HLW are viewed as the Achilles' heel of nuclear power. Figure 1 shows the used fuel inventory in the United States (US) and East Asian nuclear power programs. The inventory is estimated based on that in 2010 and the projected growth of nuclear power in these programs to 2020 and 2030. Figure 1 indicates that in 2010, the US had about 63,900 tons of used fuel from light-water reactors (LWR), more than the statutory limit of what was supposed to go into the now-abandoned Yucca Mountain Repository, and accounting for more than 33% of global used LWR fuel total. Currently, about 2,000 tons of used fuel are generated in the existing US LWRs annually. Russia had 25,100 tons of used fuel in 2010. Based on a modest growth of nuclear power, its used fuel inventory is expected to increase to about 31,800 and 38,000 tons by 2020 and 2030, respectively. The nuclear energy programs in East Asia (China, Japan, ROK, and Taiwan) account for 19% of global used LWR fuel inventory in 2010. China's used fuel inventory in 2010 was relatively small at 1,900 tons, but is expected to grow rapidly to {approx}12,400 and {approx}31,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively, based on its expanding nuclear power program (from the current installed capacity of 21.8 GW to {approx}60 and {approx}200 GW in 2020 and 2030, respectively). Besides PWRs, China also operates 2 Candu reactors which each produces roughly 8 times more used fuel in tons than a PWR of the same power. The used Candu fuel inventory would increase from 950 tons in 2010 to 2,850 and 4,750 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Used fuel in Japan, ROK, and Taiwan are US-obligated. Japan's future trends of used fuel inventory are uncertain due to the unknown numbers and timing of the currently-shutdown nuclear power plants that would be allowed for restart, and the uncertain future of Japan's reprocessing at Rokkasho. Under two scenario cases (a no-nuke/no-reprocessing and a 80%-nuke with reprocessing), the Japanese used fuel inventory could be capped from 2020 to 2030 to {approx}21,500 tons for the first case, and to {approx}22,500 tons for the second. The ROK's used PWR fuel inventory would increase from 4,900 tons in 2010 to about 8,800 and 14,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. Its used Candu fuel inventory would also increase from 5,900 tons in 2010 to about 9,700 and 13,500 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The Taiwan used fuel inventory should be kept at current level as nuclear power is being phase out. Its growth should be modest from 3,000 tons in 2010 to about 4,300 and 5,000 tons in 2020 and 2030, respectively even if the 4. nuclear power station would start and the operation of existing LWRs is extended. Used fuel inventory in other East Asian countries (DPRK, Vietnam, etc.) should be small, if any before 2030.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗

DOE OSTI2015

Incorporating an advanced aerosol activation parameterization into WRF-CAM5: Model evaluation and parameterization intercomparison

Aerosol activation into cloud droplets is an important process that governs aerosol indirect effects. The advanced treatment of aerosol activation by Fountoukis and Nenes (2005) and its recent updates, collectively called the FN series, have been incorporated into a newly developed regional coupled climate-air quality model based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the physics package of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (WRF-CAM5) to simulate aerosol-cloud interactions in both resolved and convective clouds. The model is applied to East Asia for two full years of 2005 and 2010. A comprehensive model evaluation is performed for model predictions of meteorological, radiative, and cloud variables, chemical concentrations, and column mass abundances against satellite data and surface observations from air quality monitoring sites across East Asia. The model performs overall well for major meteorological variables including near-surface temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, precipitation, cloud fraction, precipitable water, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and column mass abundances of CO, SO 2 , NO 2 , HCHO, and O 3 in terms of both magnitudes and spatial distributions. Larger biases exist in the predictions of surface concentrations of CO and NO x at all sites and SO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 concentrations at some sites, aerosol optical depth, cloud condensation nuclei over ocean, cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), cloud liquid and ice water path, and cloud optical thickness. Compared with the default Abdul-Razzack Ghan (2000) parameterization, simulations with the FN series produce ~107–113% higher CDNC, with half of the difference attributable to the higher aerosol activation fraction by the FN series and the remaining half due to feedbacks in subsequent cloud microphysical processes. With the higher CDNC, the FN series are more skillful in simulating cloud water path, cloud optical thickness, downward shortwave radiation, shortwave cloud forcing, and precipitation. Here, the model evaluation identifies several areas of improvements including emissions and their vertical allocation as well as model formulations such as aerosol formation, cloud droplet nucleation, and ice nucleation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

The science, technology, and politics of ballistic missile defense

America's missile defense systems are deployed at home and abroad. This includes the Groundbased Missile Defense (GMD) system in Alaska and California, the Phased Adaptive Approach in Europe (EPAA), and regional systems in the Middle East and Asia. Unfortunately these systems lack workable architectures, and many of the required elements either don't work or are missing. Major review and reconsideration is needed of all elements of these systems. GMD performance in tests has gotten worse with time, when it ought to be getting better. A lack of political support is not to blame as the DoD spends about $10 billion per year, and proposes to add about $5 billion over the next five years. Russia objects to the EPAA as a threat to its ICBM forces, and to the extensive deployment of U.S. military forces in countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania, once part of the Soviet Union. Going forward the U.S. should keep working with Russia whose cooperation will be key to diplomatic gains in the Middle East and elsewhere. Meanwhile, America's missile defenses face an enduring set of issues, especially target discrimination in the face of attacks designed to overwhelm the defenses, stage separation debris, chaff, decoys, and stealth. Dealing with target discrimination while also replacing, upgrading, or adding to the many elements of U.S. missiles defenses presents daunting budget priorities. A new look at the threat is warranted, and whether the U.S. needs to consider every nation that possesses even short-range missiles a threat to America. The proliferation of missiles of all sizes around the world is a growing problem, but expecting U.S. missile defenses to deal with all those missiles everywhere is unrealistic, and U.S. missile defenses, effective or not, are justifying more and more offensive missiles.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deuterium retention characteristics in Li film by coating and during flowing liquid Li limiter operation in experimental advanced superconducting tokamak

Lithium (Li) is a promising low-Z material for particle recycling and impurity control to improve plasma performance in fusion devices. In the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST), Li coating has become a routine method for wall conditioning, and a flowing liquid Li (FLiLi) limiter has been successfully tested several times. Deuterium retention characteristics in the Li film coated on the international thermonuclear experimental reactor-like tungsten divertor and FLiLi during plasma discharges, which is important for the utilization of Li in future fusion devices, were investigated in EAST. It is found that the absorption of the fuel particles by Li coatings decreases gradually, and recycling gradually increases over a series of discharges. The maximum net amount of deuterium retained reached ~0.8 g, corresponding to 12% deuterium in the Li. Furthermore, this corresponds to a whole day's worth of shots with a total of 87 plasma discharges and a total of ~640s plasma time after 11.75 g Li was deposited. Compared to the Li coating, it is shown that FLiLi continuously traps fuel particles and achieves a higher deuterium retention ratio over both the short- and long-term, leading to lower recycling. Meanwhile, it is also observed that the fuel particle retention ratio increases when FLiLi is closer to the plasma. This result is likely due to higher plasma heating power and limiter temperature, which cause an increased Li efflux from FLiLi due to a higher limiter temperature, which then redeposits on the other plasma-facing surfaces and increases fuel particle absorption. It is estimated that ≥ 80% of the retained D particles are captured by the continual renewal of the Li redeposition film during the FLiLi operation. This investigation would also be useful for D/T retention in future fusion devices if Li is used as a plasma-facing component.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

WEC-SIM Support for an Innovative Zero Discharge Supercritical Water Based Wave Energy Desalination System (CRADA Final Report)

NREL will assist East Carolina University in its development of the foundational knowledge and proof of concept that are needed for future process scale up and commercialization of a sustainable wave-to-water (direct pressurization) desalination unit powered by a wave energy converter. NREL will provide guidance and support to East Carolina University on its: use of the NREL developed WEC-Sim based wave to water system, exploring the WEC-Sim/ASPEN Plus data exchange communication, and using experimental data to hopefully provide validation of analytical models.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS2016

Comparing GOSAT Observations of Localized CO2 Enhancements by Large Emitters with Inventory-Based Estimates

We employed an atmospheric transport model to attribute column-averaged CO2 mixing ratios (XCO2) observed by Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to emissions due to large sources such as megacities and power plants. XCO2 enhancements estimated from observations were compared to model simulations implemented at the spatial resolution of the satellite observation footprint (0.1deg × 0.1deg). We found that the simulated XCO2 enhancements agree with the observed over several continental regions across the globe, for example, for North America with an observation to simulation ratio of 1.05 +/- 0.38 (p<0.1), but with a larger ratio over East Asia (1.22 +/- 0.32; p<0.05). The obtained observation-model discrepancy (22%) for East Asia is comparable to the uncertainties in Chinese emission inventories (approx.15%) suggested by recent reports. Our results suggest that by increasing the number of observations around emission sources, satellite instruments like GOSAT can provide a tool for detecting biases in reported emission inventories.

CO2↗

DOE OSTI2014

Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changes in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.

CMIP5↗