Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cost Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Offshore Wind Plant Balance-of-Station Cost Drivers and Sensitivities (Poster)

With Balance of System (BOS) costs contributing up to 70% of the installed capital cost, it is fundamental to understanding the BOS costs for offshore wind projects as well as potential cost trends for larger offshore turbines. NREL developed a BOS model using project cost estimates developed by GL Garrad Hassan. Aspects of BOS covered include engineering and permitting, ports and staging, transportation and installation, vessels, foundations, and electrical. The data introduce new scaling relationships for each BOS component to estimate cost as a function of turbine parameters and size, project parameters and size, and soil type. Based on the new BOS model, an analysis to understand the non-turbine costs associated with offshore turbine sizes ranging from 3 MW to 6 MW and offshore wind plant sizes ranging from 100 MW to 1000 MW has been conducted. This analysis establishes a more robust baseline cost estimate, identifies the largest cost components of offshore wind project BOS, and explores the sensitivity of the levelized cost of energy to permutations in each BOS cost element. This presentation shows results from the model that illustrates the potential impact of turbine size and project size on the cost of energy from US offshore wind plants.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Technoeconomic Opportunities in Automation for Nuclear Microreactors

Achieving full decarbonization of all economic sectors remains a challenge, especially in niche markets. For example, remote communities and industrial or mining activities detached from the main electric grid heavily rely on fossil fuels, similar to urban and industrial microgrids with combined heat and power needs. A combination of renewables and energy storage is often not suitable due to cost, reliability, intermittency, and large storage requirements. Small nuclear reactors with a flexible purpose could serve these applications. Microreactors (MR) are a class of reactors that are compact, factory manufactured, transportable, and self-regulating. Typically, they generate much less power than their large reactor counterparts. The main advantages of microreactors include the versatile nature of the energy produced, the reliability of supply, and freedom from having to transport and store large quantities of fuels on-site, coupled with the absence of dependence on an electrical grid. A strong business case is needed to move from the microreactor prototype to the commercialization phase. In fact, fossil fuels are still relatively inexpensive, and in the near term, carbon credits will be available to virtually compensate for emissions. For microreactors, one of the main costs in operation and maintenance (O&M) is their staffing levels. In this study, we investigate how to optimize the number (and thus the cost) of workers, moving from a traditional, fully manned, on-site personnel approach to an unmanned, remote personnel approach. We examine four different staffing models that can be implemented as the technology matures and evolves. We estimate the staffing needs of each model and build a business case to justify the substitution of on-site personnel with adequate technologies. To do so, we propose a cost model to quantify potential cost reductions from automating O&M activities. The model accounts for both the reduction in cost derived from the reduced number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) employees and the increase in cost derived from the need to buy new control hardware as needed. Applying the cost model that we created to different scenarios, an on-site O&M cost reduction exceeding 80% can be expected. Additionally, we found that it is more impactful to focus on automating routine O&M tasks rather than attempting to automate transient management (shutdowns, restarts, monitoring condition deviations). In fact, transients typically account for less than 1% of the total FTE time spent on the reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The ongoing need for high-resolution regional climate models: Process understanding and stakeholder information

Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. High resolution models are generally more skillful in simulating extremes, such as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and severe storms. In addition, research has shown that fine-scale features such as mountains, coastlines, lakes, irrigation, land use, and urban heat islands can substantially influence a region’s climate and its response to changing forcings. Regional climate simulations explicitly simulating convection are now being performed, providing an opportunity to illuminate new physical behavior that previously was represented by parameterizations with large uncertainties. Regional and global models are both advancing toward higher resolution, as computational capacity increases. However, the resolution and ensemble size necessary to produce a sufficient statistical sample of these processes in global models has proven too costly for contemporary supercomputing systems. Regional climate models are thus indispensable tools that complement global models for understanding regional climate variability and change, and are critical for supporting societal responses to changing climate.

Gutowski, William↗
DOE OSTI2020

Adiabatic Cooling System Spreadsheet Model for sCO 2

The attached cost and performance spreadsheet model is for an adiabatic cooling system, one of four cooling system models developed for use in optimizing indirectly-heated supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycles. Running the model requires that the user has REFPROP version 9 or below installed, as well as the Microsoft Excel REFPROP Add-In. Upon opening, use Excel’s Edit Links feature to link to the user’s installed REFPROP.xla or REFPROP.xlam file. For the spreadsheet model compatible with REFPROP version 10 and above, contact Nathan Weiland at nathan.weiland@netl.doe.gov. Technical documentation for the model can be found here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=3199.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Dry Cooling System Spreadsheet Model for sCO 2

The attached cost and performance spreadsheet model is for a direct dry cooling system, one of four cooling system models developed for use in optimizing indirectly-heated supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycles. Running the model requires that the user has REFPROP version 9 or below installed, as well as the Microsoft Excel REFPROP Add-In. Upon opening, use Excel’s Edit Links feature to link to the user’s installed REFPROP.xla or REFPROP.xlam file. For the spreadsheet model compatible with REFPROP version 10 and above, contact Nathan Weiland at nathan.weiland@netl.doe.gov. Technical documentation for the model can be found here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=3199.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Contract Model with Risk Sharing in Integrated Logistical Product Support

With transformation of the defense industry and industry in general, -cost-of-ownership models in relation to high-tech products must be modified. The model must include cost sharing between the purchaser and the manufacturer. Thus, the required characteristics of high-tech products must be ensured by the purchaser and the manufacturer in cooperation, so that both partners share the risk of failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Estimating the Cost to do a Cost Estimate

This article provides a model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate. Overruns may lead to concellation of a project. In 1991, we completed a study on the cost of doing cost estimates for the class of projects normally encountered in the development and implementation of equipment at the network of tracking stations operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for NASA.

estimation cost estimate↗
DOE OSTI2013

Grid Integration of Aggregated Demand Response, Part 1: Load Availability Profiles and Constraints for the Western Interconnection

Demand response (DR) has the potential to improve electric grid reliability and reduce system operation costs. However, including DR in grid modeling can be difficult due to its variable and non-traditional response characteristics, compared to traditional generation. Therefore, efforts to value the participation of DR in procurement of grid services have been limited. In this report, we present methods and tools for predicting demand response availability profiles, representing their capability to participate in capacity, energy, and ancillary services. With the addition of response characteristics mimicking those of generation, the resulting profiles will help in the valuation of the participation of demand response through production cost modeling, which informs infrastructure and investment planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1982

The role of multispectral scanners as data sources for EPA hydrologic models

An estimated cost savings of 30% to 50% was realized from using LANDSAT-derived data as input into a program which simulates hydrologic and water quality processes in natural and man-made water systems. Data from the satellite were used in conjunction with EPA's 11-channel multispectral scanner to obtain maps for characterizing the distribution of turbidity plumes in Flathead Lake and to predict the effect of increasing urbanization in Montana's Flathead River Basin on the lake's trophic state. Multispectral data are also being studied as a possible source of the parameters needed to model the buffering capability of lakes in an effort to evaluate the effect of acid rain in the Adirondacks. Water quality in Lake Champlain, Vermont is being classified using data from the LANDSAT and the EPA MSS. Both contact-sensed and MSS data are being used with multivariate statistical analysis to classify the trophic status of 145 lakes in Illinois and to identify water sampling sites in Appalachicola Bay where contaminants threaten Florida's shellfish.

Slack, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Design and construction of models for the National Transonic Facility, part 2

This lecture presents the results of fastener load and retention systems tests which were carried out as a part of the cryogenic models technology development program a the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Various design concepts for the National Transonic Facility (NTF) developmental and production models are discussed. A number of NTF models are described with emphasis on materials used, uniqueness of design and design drivers. Design and fabrication experience is presented in terms of the primary thermal and mechanical considerations required for design as well as fabrication. Cost considerations are addressed in terms of factors influencing costs for NTF models and cost data comparisons which are taken from both NASA Langley and industry experience.

Young, C. P., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble flow reconstruction in the atmospheric boundary layer from spatially limited measurements through latent diffusion models

Due to costs and practical constraints, field campaigns in the atmospheric boundary layer typically only measure a fraction of the atmospheric volume of interest. Machine learning techniques have previously successfully reconstructed unobserved regions of flow in canonical fluid mechanics problems and two-dimensional geophysical flows, but these techniques have not yet been demonstrated in the three-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer. Here, we conduct a numerical analogue of a field campaign with spatially limited measurements using large-eddy simulation. We pose flow reconstruction as an inpainting problem, and reconstruct realistic samples of turbulent, three-dimensional flow with the use of a latent diffusion model. The diffusion model generates physically plausible turbulent structures on larger spatial scales, even when input observations cover less than 1% of the volume. Through a combination of qualitative visualization and quantitative assessment, we demonstrate that the diffusion model generates meaningfully diverse samples when conditioned on just one observation. These samples successfully serve as initial conditions for a large-eddy simulation code. We find that diffusion models show promise and potential for other applications for other turbulent flow reconstruction problems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Shallow Water Offshore Wind Optimization for the Great Lakes (DE-FOA-0000415) Final Report: A Conceptual Design for Wind Energy in the Great Lakes

The primary objective of the project was to develop a innovative Gravity Base Foundation (GBF) concepts, including fabrication yards, launching systems and installation equipment, for a 500MW utility scale project in the Great Lakes (Lake Erie). The goal was to lower the LCOE by 25%. The project was the first to investigate an offshore wind project in the Great Lakes and it has furthered the body of knowledge for foundations and installation methods within Lake Erie. The project collected historical geotechnical information for Lake Erie and also used recently obtained data from the LEEDCo Icebreaker Project (FOA DE-EE0005989) geotechnical program to develop the conceptual designs. Using these data-sets, the project developed design wind and wave conditions from actual buoy data in order to develop a concept that would de-risk a project using a GBF. These wind and wave conditions were then utilized to create reference designs for various foundations specific to installation in Lake Erie. A project partner on the project (Weeks Marine) provided input for construction and costing the GBF fabrication and installation. By having a marine contractor with experience with large marine projects as part of the team provides credibility to the LCOE developed by NREL. NREL then utilized the design and construction costing information as part of the LCOE model. The report summarizes the findings of the project; Developed a cost model and “baseline” LCOE; Documented Site Conditions within Lake Erie; Developed Fabrication, Installation and Foundations Innovative Concept Designs; Evaluated LCOE Impact of Innovations; Developed Assembly line “Rail System” for GBF Construction and Staging; Developed Transit-Inspired Foundation Designs which incorporated: Semi-Floating Transit with Supplemental Pontoons Barge mounted Winch System; Developed GBF with “Penetration Skirt”; Developed Integrated GBF with Turbine Tower; Developed Turbine, Plant Layout and O&M Strategies. The report details lowering LCOE by 22.3% and identified additional strategies that could further lower LCOE when building an utility scale wind farm in the Great Lakes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Multibody model reduction by component mode synthesis and component cost analysis

The classical assumed-modes method is widely used in modeling the dynamics of flexible multibody systems. According to the method, the elastic deformation of each component in the system is expanded in a series of spatial and temporal functions known as modes and modal coordinates, respectively. This paper focuses on the selection of component modes used in the assumed-modes expansion. A two-stage component modal reduction method is proposed combining Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) with Component Cost Analysis (CCA). First, each component model is truncated such that the contribution of the high frequency subsystem to the static response is preserved. Second, a new CMS procedure is employed to assemble the system model and CCA is used to further truncate component modes in accordance with their contribution to a quadratic cost function of the system output. The proposed method is demonstrated with a simple example of a flexible two-body system.

Spanos, J. T.↗
DOE OSTI2019

RNA-seq latent featurizer using center loss cost function

Predictive modeling of patient tumor growth response to drug treatment is severely limited by a lack of experimental data for training. Combining experimental data from several studies is an attractive approach, but presents two problems: batch effects and limited data for individual drugs and cell lines. Batch effects are caused by systematic procedural differences among studies, which causes systematic experimental outcome differences. Directly using these experimental results as features for machine learning commonly causes problems when training on one study and testing on another. This severely limits a model's ability to perform well on new experiments. Even after combining studies, predicting outcomes on new patient tumors remains an open challenge. We propose a semi-supervised, autoencoder-based, machine learning procedure, which learns a smaller set of gene expression features that are robust to batch effects using background information on a cell line or tissue's tumor type. We implemented this reduced feature representation and show that the new feature space clusters strongly according to tumor type. This experiment is carried out across multiple studies: CCLE, CTRP, gCSI, GDSC, NCI60, and patient derived tumors. We hypothesize that using a batch effect resistant feature set across studies will improve prediction performance. Genome Data Commons (GDC) gene expression profiles for publicly available human tissues and cell lines from NCI60 and CCLE were processed using the semi-supervised learning procedure. Our autoencoder repurposes the 'center loss' (CL) cost function of Wen et. al. to learn a more generalized set of features using the cell line or tissue's tumor type.

He, Stewart↗