Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Confidence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of beneficial and detrimental bacteria impacting sorghum responses to drought using multi-scale and multi-system microbiome comparisons

Abstract Drought is a major abiotic stress limiting agricultural productivity. Previous field-level experiments have demonstrated that drought decreases microbiome diversity in the root and rhizosphere. How these changes ultimately affect plant health remains elusive. Toward this end, we combined reductionist, transitional and ecological approaches, applied to the staple cereal crop sorghum to identify key root-associated microbes that robustly affect drought-stressed plant phenotypes. Fifty-three Arabidopsis-associated bacteria were applied to sorghum seeds and their effect on root growth was monitored. Two Arthrobacter strains caused root growth inhibition (RGI) in Arabidopsis and sorghum. In the context of synthetic communities, Variovorax strains were able to protect plants from Arthrobacter-caused RGI. As a transitional system, high-throughput phenotyping was used to test the synthetic communities. During drought stress, plants colonized by Arthrobacter had reduced growth and leaf water content. Plants colonized by both Arthrobacter and Variovorax performed as well or better than control plants. In parallel, we performed a field trial wherein sorghum was evaluated across drought conditions. By incorporating data on soil properties into the microbiome analysis, we accounted for experimental noise with a novel method and were able to observe the negative correlation between the abundance of Arthrobacter and plant growth. Having validated this approach, we cross-referenced datasets from the high-throughput phenotyping and field experiments and report a list of bacteria with high confidence that positively associated with plant growth under drought stress. In conclusion, a three-tiered experimental system successfully spanned the lab-to-field gap and identified beneficial and deleterious bacterial strains for sorghum under drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning-assisted insight into spin ice Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7

Complex behavior poses challenges in extracting models from experiment. An example is spin liquid formation in frustrated magnets like Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 . Understanding has been hindered by issues including disorder, glass formation, and interpretation of scattering data. Here, we use an automated capability to extract model Hamiltonians from data, and to identify different magnetic regimes. This involves training an autoencoder to learn a compressed representation of three-dimensional diffuse scattering, over a wide range of spin Hamiltonians. The autoencoder finds optimal matches according to scattering and heat capacity data and provides confidence intervals. Validation tests indicate that our optimal Hamiltonian accurately predicts temperature and field dependence of both magnetic structure and magnetization, as well as glass formation and irreversibility in Dy 2 Ti 2 O 7 . The autoencoder can also categorize different magnetic behaviors and eliminate background noise and artifacts in raw data. Our methodology is readily applicable to other materials and types of scattering problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning-revealed statistics of the particle-carbon/binder detachment in lithium-ion battery cathodes

The microstructure of a composite electrode determines how individual battery particles are charged and discharged in a lithium-ion battery. It is a frontier challenge to experimentally visualize and, subsequently, to understand the electrochemical consequences of battery particles’ evolving (de)attachment with the conductive matrix. Herein, we tackle this issue with a unique combination of multiscale experimental approaches, machine-learning-assisted statistical analysis, and experiment-informed mathematical modeling. Our results suggest that the degree of particle detachment is positively correlated with the charging rate and that smaller particles exhibit a higher degree of uncertainty in their detachment from the carbon/binder matrix. We further explore the feasibility and limitation of utilizing the reconstructed electron density as a proxy for the state-of-charge. Our findings highlight the importance of precisely quantifying the evolving nature of the battery electrode’s microstructure with statistical confidence, which is a key to maximize the utility of active particles towards higher battery capacity.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal changes in global soil respiration since 1987

As the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux, soil respiration (R S ) has been stimulated by climate warming. However, the magnitude and dynamics of such stimulations of soil respiration are highly uncertain at the global scale, undermining our confidence in future climate projections. Here, we present an analysis of global R S observations from 1987–2016. R S increased (P < 0.001) at a rate of 27.66 g C m -2 yr -2 (equivalent to 0.161 Pg C yr -2 ) in 1987–1999 globally but became unchanged in 2000–2016, which were related to complex temporal variations of temperature anomalies and soil C stocks. However, global heterotrophic respiration (R h ) derived from microbial decomposition of soil C increased in 1987–2016 (P < 0.001), suggesting accumulated soil C losses. Given the warmest years on records after 2015, our modeling analysis shows a possible resuscitation of global R S rise. This study of naturally occurring shifts in R S over recent decades has provided invaluable insights for designing more effective policies addressing future climate challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bias free multiobjective active learning for materials design and discovery

The design rules for materials are clear for applications with a single objective. For most applications, however, there are often multiple, sometimes competing objectives where there is no single best material and the design rules change to finding the set of Pareto optimal materials. In this work, we leverage an active learning algorithm that directly uses the Pareto dominance relation to compute the set of Pareto optimal materials with desirable accuracy. We apply our algorithm to de novo polymer design with a prohibitively large search space. Using molecular simulations, we compute key descriptors for dispersant applications and drastically reduce the number of materials that need to be evaluated to reconstruct the Pareto front with a desired confidence. This work showcases how simulation and machine learning techniques can be coupled to discover materials within a design space that would be intractable using conventional screening approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median R eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures

Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France’s ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microcavity-like exciton-polaritons can be the primary photoexcitation in bare organic semiconductors

Strong-coupling between excitons and confined photonic modes can lead to the formation of new quasi-particles termed exciton-polaritons which can display a range of interesting properties such as super-fluidity, ultrafast transport and Bose-Einstein condensation. Strong-coupling typically occurs when an excitonic material is confided in a dielectric or plasmonic microcavity. Here, we show polaritons can form at room temperature in a range of chemically diverse, organic semiconductor thin films, despite the absence of an external cavity. We find evidence of strong light-matter coupling via angle-dependent peak splittings in the reflectivity spectra of the materials and emission from collective polariton states. We additionally show exciton-polaritons are the primary photoexcitation in these organic materials by directly imaging their ultrafast (5 × 10 6 m s –1 ), ultralong (~270 nm) transport. These results open-up new fundamental physics and could enable a new generation of organic optoelectronic and light harvesting devices based on cavity-free exciton-polaritons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

AF2Complex predicts direct physical interactions in multimeric proteins with deep learning

Abstract Accurate descriptions of protein-protein interactions are essential for understanding biological systems. Remarkably accurate atomic structures have been recently computed for individual proteins by AlphaFold2 (AF2). Here, we demonstrate that the same neural network models from AF2 developed for single protein sequences can be adapted to predict the structures of multimeric protein complexes without retraining. In contrast to common approaches, our method, AF2Complex, does not require paired multiple sequence alignments. It achieves higher accuracy than some complex protein-protein docking strategies and provides a significant improvement over AF-Multimer, a development of AlphaFold for multimeric proteins. Moreover, we introduce metrics for predicting direct protein-protein interactions between arbitrary protein pairs and validate AF2Complex on some challenging benchmark sets and the E. coli proteome. Lastly, using the cytochrome c biogenesis system I as an example, we present high-confidence models of three sought-after assemblies formed by eight members of this system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global soil profiles indicate depth-dependent soil carbon losses under a warmer climate

Soil organic carbon (SOC) changes under future climate warming are difficult to quantify in situ. Here we apply an innovative approach combining space-for-time substitution with meta-analysis to SOC measurements in 113,013 soil profiles across the globe to estimate the effect of future climate warming on steady-state SOC stocks. We find that SOC stock will reduce by 6.0 ± 1.6% (mean±95% confidence interval), 4.8 ± 2.3% and 1.3 ± 4.0% at 0–0.3, 0.3–1 and 1–2 m soil depths, respectively, under 1 °C air warming, with additional 4.2%, 2.2% and 1.4% losses per every additional 1 °C warming, respectively. The largest proportional SOC losses occur in boreal forests. Existing SOC level is the predominant determinant of the spatial variability of SOC changes with higher percentage losses in SOC-rich soils. Our work demonstrates that warming induces more proportional SOC losses in topsoil than in subsoil, particularly from high-latitudinal SOC-rich systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Search for Dark Matter Axions with CAST-CAPP

The CAST-CAPP axion haloscope, operating at CERN inside the CAST dipole magnet, has searched for axions in the 19.74 μeV to 22.47 μeV mass range. The detection concept follows the Sikivie haloscope principle, where Dark Matter axions convert into photons within a resonator immersed in a magnetic field. The CAST-CAPP resonator is an array of four individual rectangular cavities inserted in a strong dipole magnet, phase-matched to maximize the detection sensitivity. Here we report on the data acquired for 4124 h from 2019 to 2021. Each cavity is equipped with a fast frequency tuning mechanism of 10 MHz/ min between 4.774 GHz and 5.434 GHz. In the present work, we exclude axion-photon couplings for virialized galactic axions down to g aγγ = 8 × 10 –14 GeV –1 at the 90% confidence level. The here implemented phase-matching technique also allows for future large-scale upgrades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

PeakDecoder enables machine learning-based metabolite annotation and accurate profiling in multidimensional mass spectrometry measurements

Multidimensional measurements using state-of-the-art separations and mass spectrometry provide advantages in untargeted metabolomics analyses for studying biological and environmental bio-chemical processes. However, the lack of rapid analytical methods and robust algorithms for these heterogeneous data has limited its application. Here, we develop and evaluate a sensitive and high-throughput analytical and computational workflow to enable accurate metabolite profiling. Our workflow combines liquid chromatography, ion mobility spectrometry and data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry with PeakDecoder, a machine learning-based algorithm that learns to distinguish true co-elution and co-mobility from raw data and calculates metabolite identification error rates. We apply PeakDecoder for metabolite profiling of various engineered strains of Aspergillus pseudoterreus, Aspergillus niger, Pseudomonas putida and Rhodosporidium toruloides. Results, validated manually and against selected reaction monitoring and gas-chromatography platforms, show that 2683 features could be confidently annotated and quantified across 116 microbial sample runs using a library built from 64 standards.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of ‘black swan’-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automating data analysis for hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry using data-independent acquisition methodology

We present a hydrogen/deuterium exchange workflow coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (HX-MS 2 ) that supports the acquisition of peptide fragment ions alongside their peptide precursors. The approach enables true auto-curation of HX data by mining a rich set of deuterated fragments, generated by collisional-induced dissociation (CID), to simultaneously confirm the peptide ID and authenticate MS 1 -based deuteration calculations. The high redundancy provided by the fragments supports a confidence assessment of deuterium calculations using a combinatorial strategy. The approach requires data-independent acquisition (DIA) methods that are available on most MS platforms, making the switch to HX-MS 2 straightforward. Importantly, we find that HX-DIA enables a proteomics-grade approach and wide-spread applications. Considerable time is saved through auto-curation and complex samples can now be characterized and at higher throughput. We illustrate these advantages in a drug binding analysis of the ultra-large protein kinase DNA-PKcs, isolated directly from mammalian cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-baseline quantum sensor network as dark matter haloscope

Ultralight dark photons constitute a well-motivated candidate for dark matter. A coherent electromagnetic wave is expected to be induced by dark photons when coupled with Standard-Model photons through kinetic mixing mechanism, and should be spatially correlated within the de Broglie wavelength of dark photons. Here we report the first search for correlated dark-photon signals using a long-baseline network of 15 atomic magnetometers, which are situated in two separated meter-scale shield rooms with a distance of about 1700 km. Both the network’s multiple sensors and the shields large size significantly enhance the expected dark-photon electromagnetic signals, and long-baseline measurements confidently reduce many local noise sources. Using this network, we constrain the kinetic mixing coefficient of dark photon dark matter over the mass range 4.1 feV-2.1 peV, which represents the most stringent constraints derived from any terrestrial experiments operating over the aforementioned mass range. Our prospect indicates that future data releases may go beyond the astrophysical constraints from the cosmic microwave background and the plasma heating.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗