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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Theoretical Prediction of Thermal Expansion Anisotropy for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 Environmental Barrier Coatings Using a Deep Neural Network Potential and Comparison to Experiment

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are an enabling technology for silicon carbide (SiC)-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in extreme environments such as gas turbine engines. However, the development of new coating systems is hindered by the large design space and difficulty in predicting the properties for these materials. Density Functional Theory (DFT) has successfully been used to model and predict some thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties of high-temperature ceramics for EBCs, although these calculations are challenging due to their high computational costs. In this work, we use machine learning to train a deep neural network potential (DNP) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 , which is then applied to calculate the thermodynamic and thermo-mechanical properties at near-DFT accuracy much faster and using less computational resources than DFT. We use this DNP to predict the phonon-based thermodynamic properties of Y 2 Si 2 O 7 with good agreement to DFT and experiments. We also utilize the DNP to calculate the anisotropic, lattice direction-dependent coefficients of thermal expansion (CTEs) for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 . Molecular dynamics trajectories using the DNP correctly demonstrate the accurate prediction of the anisotropy of the CTE in good agreement with the diffraction experiments. In the future, this DNP could be applied to accelerate additional property calculations for Y 2 Si 2 O 7 compared to DFT or experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Radiation-Induced Oxidation Reactions of 2-Selenouracil in Aqueous Solutions: Comparison with Sulfur Analog of Uracil

One-electron oxidation of 2-selenouracil (2-SeU) by hydroxyl (●OH) and azide (●N3) radicals leads to various primary reactive intermediates. Their optical absorption spectra and kinetic characteristics were studied by pulse radiolysis with UV-vis spectrophotometric and conductivity detection and by the density functional theory (DFT) method. The transient absorption spectra recorded in the reactions of ●OH with 2-SeU are dominated by an absorption band with an λmax = 440 nm, the intensity of which depends on the concentration of 2-SeU and pH. Based on the combination of conductometric and DFT studies, the transient absorption band observed both at low and high concentrations of 2-SeU was assigned to the dimeric 2c-3e Se-Se-bonded radical in neutral form (2●). The dimeric radical (2●) is formed in the reaction of a selenyl-type radical (6●) with 2-SeU, and both radicals are in equilibrium with Keq = 1.3 × 104 M−1 at pH 4 (below the pKa of 2-SeU). Similar equilibrium with Keq = 4.4 × 103 M−1 was determined for pH 10 (above the pKa of 2-SeU), which admittedly involves the same radical (6●) but with a dimeric 2c-3e Se-Se bonded radical in anionic form (2●−). In turn, at the lowest concentration of 2-SeU (0.05 mM) and pH 10, the transient absorption spectrum is dominated by an absorption band with an λmax = 390 nm, which was assigned to the ●OH adduct to the double bond at C5 carbon atom (3●) based on DFT calculations. Similar spectral and kinetic features were also observed during the ●N3-induced oxidation of 2-SeU. In principle, our results mostly revealed similarities in one-electron oxidation pathways of 2-SeU and 2-thiouracil (2-TU). The major difference concerns the stability of dimeric radicals with a 2c-3e chalcogen-chalcogen bond in favor of 2-SeU.

2-selenouracil↗

Comparison of Eco-Friendly Ionic Liquids and Commercial Bio-Derived Lubricant Additives in Terms of Tribological Performance and Aquatic Toxicity

Approximately half of the lubricants sold globally find their way into the environment. The need for Environmentally Acceptable Lubricants (EALs) is gaining increased recognition. A lubricant is composed of a base oil and multiple functional additives. The literature has been focused on EAL base oils, with much less attention given to eco-friendly additives. This study presents the tribological performance and aquatic toxicity of four short-chain phosphonium-phosphate and ammonium-phosphate ionic liquids (ILs) as candidate anti-wear and friction-reducing additives for EALs. The results are benchmarked against those of four commercial bio-derived additives. The four ILs, at a mere 0.5 wt% concentration in a synthetic ester, demonstrated a 30–40% friction reduction and >99% wear reduction, superior to the commercial baselines. More impressively, all four ILs showed significantly lower toxicity than the bio-derived products. In an EPA-standard chronic aquatic toxicity test, the sensitive model organism, Ceriodaphnia dubia, had 90–100% survival when exposed to the ILs but 0% survival in exposure to the bio-derived products at the same concentration. This study offers scientific insights for the future development of eco-friendly ILs as lubricant additives.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of the Transcriptome Response within the Swine Tracheobronchial Lymphnode Following Infection with PRRSV, PCV-2 or IAV-S.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is a major respiratory pathogen of swine that has become extremely costly to the swine industry worldwide, often causing losses in production and animal life due to their ease of spread. However, the intracellular changes that occur in pigs following viral respiratory infections are still scantily understood for PRRSV, as well as other viral respiratory infections. The aim of this study was to acquire a better understanding of the PRRS disease by comparing gene expression changes that occur in tracheobronchial lymph nodes (TBLN) of pigs infected with either porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2), or swine influenza A virus (IAV-S) infections. The study identified and compared gene expression changes in the TBLN of 80 pigs following infection by PRRSV, PCV-2, IAV-S, or sham inoculation. Total RNA was pooled for each group and time-point (1, 3, 6, and 14 dpi) to make 16 libraries—analyses are by Digital Gene Expression Tag Profiling (DGETP). The data underwent standard filtering to generate a list of sequence tag raw counts that were then analyzed using multidimensional and differential expression statistical tests. The results showed that PRRSV, IAV-S and PCV-2 viral infections followed a clinical course in the pigs typical of experimental infection of young pigs with these viruses. Gene expression results echoed this course, as well as uncovered genes related to intersecting and unique host immune responses to the three viruses. By testing and observing the host response to other respiratory viruses, our study has elucidated similarities and differences that can assist in the development of vaccines and therapeutics that shorten or prevent a chronic PRRSV infection.

Miller↗

Multiphysics Modeling Framework for Soft PVC Gel Sensors with Experimental Comparisons

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) gels have recently been found to exhibit mechanoelectrical transduction or sensing capabilities under compressive loading applications. This phenomenon is not wholly understood but has been characterized as an adsorption-like phenomena under varying amounts and types of plasticizers. A different polymer lattice structure has also been tested, thermoplastic polyurethane, which showed similar sensing characteristics. This study examines mechanical and electrical properties of these gel sensors and proposes a mathematical framework of the underlying mechanisms of mechanoelectrical transduction. COMSOL Multiphysics is used to show solid mechanics characteristics, electrostatic properties, and transport of interstitial plasticizer under compressive loading applications. The solid mechanics takes a continuum mechanics approach and includes a highly compressive Storakers material model for compressive loading applications. The electrostatics and transport properties include charge conservation and a Langmuir adsorption migration model with variable diffusion properties based on plasticizer properties. Results show both plasticizer concentration gradient as well as expected voltage response under varying amounts and types of plasticizers. Experimental work is also completed to show agreeance with the modeling results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental Comparison of Elastomeric Materials for Hydraulic Seal Durability under Reciprocating Conditions

Wave Energy Converters (WECs) rely on hydraulic Power Take-Off (PTO) systems to transform the kinetic energy of ocean waves into electricity, where hydraulic seals play a critical role in preventing fluid leakage and ensuring watertight operation under harsh marine conditions. However, seal degradation due to wear, fatigue, and corrosion remains a key challenge limiting system reliability and increasing maintenance costs. In this study, the tribological performance of elastomeric materials for hydraulic sealing applications that are based on commercial polyurethane and custom-compounded Ethylene Propylene Diene Monomer (EPDM) is investigated. Using a CSM tribometer, reciprocating wear tests were conducted in accordance with ASTM G133 under dry sliding conditions, with normal loads ranging from 3 to 10 N, and sliding speeds of 10 to 30 mm/s. Coefficient of friction (COF), specific wear rate, and worn surface morphology are evaluated to understand how load, velocity, and material composition affect seal durability. Improved wear stability and high Shore A hardness (93–94) were demonstrated by the commercial thermoplastic polyurethane (Duralast 4203 and 4758). EPDM-based compounds showed different filler-dependent behaviors, formulations filled with carbon black (E3) had the lowest wear rate (1.45 × 10?4 mm³ N?¹ m?¹) and increased load-bearing capacity, while samples modified with silica and plasticizer (E4, E5) had better conformability and damping but less hardness. Compounded EPDMs showed wider deformation zones because of their lower modulus and filler-matrix interfacial fluctuations, while commercial grades exhibited shallower wear scars (= 380 µm), according to optical profilometry. The Archard model-based lifetime estimation showed that, under 10 N and 30 mm/s, operational endurance ranged from 3.1 to 6.2 years. Because of its low wear rate and steady interfacial behavior, E3 had the longest anticipated life. For medium-load hydraulic sealing applications, these results demonstrate the possibility of customized EPDM formulations as affordable substitutes for commercial polyurethanes. They also offer a quantitative foundation for material selection and lifespan prediction.

Durability↗

Comparison of GOES16 Data with the TRACER-ESCAPE Field Campaign Dataset for Convection Characterization: A Selection of Case Studies and Lessons Learnt

Convective updrafts are one of the main characteristics of convective clouds, responsible for the convective mass flux and the redistribution of energy and condensate in the atmosphere. During the early stages of their lifecycle, convective clouds experience rapid cloud-top ascent manifested by a decrease in the geostationary IR brightness temperature (𝑇⁢𝐵 𝐼⁢𝑅 ). Under the assumption that the convective cloud top behaves like a black body, the ascent rate of the convective cloud top can be estimated as ($\frac{∂𝑇⁢𝐵_{𝐼⁢𝑅}}{∂𝑡}$), and it can be used to infer the near cloud-top convective updraft. The temporal resolution of the geostationary IR measurements and non-uniform beam-filling effects can influence the convective updraft estimation. However, the main shortcoming until today was the lack of independent verification of the strength of the convective updraft. Here, Doppler radar observations from the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments provide independent estimates of the convective updraft velocity at higher spatiotemporal resolution throughout the convective core column and can be used to evaluate the updraft velocity estimates from the IR cooling rate for limited samples. Isolated convective cells were tracked with dedicated radar (RHIs and PPIs) scans throughout their lifecycle. Radial Doppler velocity measurements near the convective cloud top are used to provide estimates of convective updrafts. These data are compared with the geostationary IR and VIS channels (from the GOES satellite) to characterize the convection evolution and lifecycle based on cloud-top cooling rates.

TRACER/ESCAPE field campaign↗

Comparison of Motion Analysis Systems in Tracking Upper Body Movement of Myoelectric Bypass Prosthesis Users

Current literature lacks a comparative analysis of different motion capture systems for tracking upper limb (UL) movement as individuals perform standard tasks. To better understand the performance of various motion capture systems in quantifying UL movement in the prosthesis user population, this study compares joint angles derived from three systems that vary in cost and motion capture mechanisms: a marker-based system (Vicon), an inertial measurement unit system (Xsens), and a markerless system (Kinect). Ten healthy participants (5F/5M; 29.6 ± 7.1 years) were trained with a TouchBionic i-Limb Ultra myoelectric terminal device mounted on a bypass prosthetic device. Participants were simultaneously recorded with all systems as they performed standardized tasks. Root mean square error and bias values for degrees of freedom in the right elbow, shoulder, neck, and torso were calculated. The IMU system yielded more accurate kinematics for shoulder, neck, and torso angles while the markerless system performed better for the elbow angles. By evaluating the ability of each system to capture kinematic changes of simulated upper limb prosthesis users during a variety of standardized tasks, this study provides insight into the advantages and limitations of using different motion capture technologies for upper limb functional assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of Sub-Ppm Instrument Response Suggests Higher Detection Limits Could Be Used to Quantify Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Quantifying and controlling fugitive methane emissions from oil and gas facilities remains essential for addressing climate goals, but the costs associated with monitoring millions of production sites remain prohibitively expensive. Current thinking, supported by measurement and simple dispersion modelling, assumes single-digit parts-per-million instrumentation is required. To investigate instrument response, the inlets of three trace-methane (sub-ppm) analyzers were collocated on a facility designed to release gas of known composition at known flow rates between 0.4 and 5.2 kg CH 4 h –1 from simulated oil and gas infrastructure. Methane mixing ratios were measured by each instrument at 1 Hertz resolution over nine hours. While mixing ratios reported by a cavity ring-down spectrometer (CRDS)-based instrument were on average 10.0 ppm (range 1.8 to 83 ppm), a mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy (MIRA)-based instrument reported short-lived mixing ratios far larger than expected (range 1.8 to 779 ppm) with a similar nine-hour average to the CRDS (10.1 ppm). We suggest the peaks detected by the MIRA are likely caused by a micrometeorological phenomenon, where vortex shedding has resulted in heterogeneous methane plumes which only the MIRA can observe. Further analysis suggests an instrument like the MIRA (an optical-cavity-based instrument with cavity size ≤10 cm3 measuring at ≥2 Hz with air flow rates in the order of ≤0.3 slpm at distances of ≤20 m from the source) but with a higher detection limit (25 ppm) could detect enough of the high-concentration events to generate representative 20 min-average methane mixing ratios. Even though development of a lower-cost, high-precision, high-accuracy instrument with a 25 ppm detection threshold remains a significant problem, this has implications for the use of instrumentation with higher detection thresholds, resulting in the reduction in cost to measure methane emissions and providing a mechanism for the widespread deployment of effective leak detection and repair programs for all oil and gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Comparison of CNN-Based Image Classification Approaches for Implementation of Low-Cost Multispectral Arcing Detection

Camera-based sensing has benefited in recent years from developments in machine learning data processing methods, as well as improved data collection options such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) mounted sensors. However, cost considerations, both for the initial purchase of sensors as well as updates, maintenance, or potential replacement if damaged, can limit adoption of more expensive sensing options for some applications. To evaluate more affordable options with less expensive, more available, and more easily replaceable hardware, we examine the use of machine learning-based image classification with custom datasets, utilizing deep learning based-image classification and the use of ensemble models for sensor fusion. Utilizing the same models for each camera to reduce technical overhead, we showed that for a very representative training dataset, camera-based detection can be successful for detection of electrical arcing. We also use multiple validation datasets, based on conditions expected to be of varying difficulty, to evaluate custom data. These results show that ensemble models of different data sources can mitigate risks from gaps in training data, though the system will be less redundant for those cases unless other precautions are taken. We found that with good quality custom datasets, data fusion models can be utilized without specialization in design to the specific cameras utilized, allowing for less specialized, more accessible equipment to be utilized as multispectral camera components. This approach can provide an alternative to expensive sensing equipment for applications in which lower-cost or more easily replaceable sensing equipment is desirable.

convolutional neural networks↗

A Comparison of Multiple Macroalgae Cultivation Systems and End-Use Strategies of Saccharina latissima and Gracilaria tikvahiae Based on Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment

Macroalgae can be processed into various products with the potential to substitute land-based crops; their cultivation can bioextract nutrients from coastal waters. This study investigated the economic cost and environmental impacts of multiple seaweed cultivation platforms, cultivation strategies, and processing/end-use strategies through techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) with a focus on Saccharina latissima and Gracilaria tikvahiae. Cultivation platforms included single-layer longline, dual-layer longline, single-layer strip, and dual-layer strip systems. Processing/end-use products included seaweed to biofuel, dried sea vegetables, marketable commercial fertilizer, and animal feed. Economic and environmental costs decreased with dual-layer and strip cultivation systems. Cultivation costs were highest using the common single-layer longline system ($4.44 kg−1 dry weight (dw) S. latissima and $6.73 kg−1 dw G. tikvahiae when cultivated on rotation). The use of the dual-layer strip system reduced cultivation costs to $2.19 kg−1 dw for S. latissima and $3.43 kg−1 dw for G. tikvahiae. Seaweed drying was the major contributor to economic and environmental costs for macroalgae processing. Yet, all scenarios achieved environmental benefits for marine eutrophication. The best environmental performance was observed when biomass was processed to dry sea vegetables, assuming the offset of land-based vegetable production, or used as biofeedstock for anaerobic digestion for combined heat and power.

Wu, Jingjing (ORCID:0000000305311353)↗

Comparison of Routes of Administration, Frequency, and Duration of Favipiravir Treatment in Mouse and Guinea Pig Models of Ebola Virus Disease

Favipiravir is a ribonucleoside analogue that has been explored as a therapeutic for the treatment of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). Promising data from rodent models has informed nonhuman primate trials, as well as evaluation in patients during the 2013–2016 West African EVD outbreak of favipiravir treatment. However, mixed results from these studies hindered regulatory approval of favipiravir for the indication of EVD. This study examined the influence of route of administration, duration of treatment, and treatment schedule of favipiravir in immune competent mouse and guinea pig models using rodent-adapted Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV). A dose of 300 mg/kg/day of favipiravir with an 8-day treatment was found to be fully effective at preventing lethal EVD-like disease in BALB/c mice regardless of route of administration (oral, intraperitoneal, or subcutaneous) or whether it was provided as a once-daily dose or a twice-daily split dose. Preclinical data generated in guinea pigs demonstrates that an 8-day treatment of 300 mg/kg/day of favipiravir reduces mortality following EBOV challenge regardless of route of treatment or duration of treatments for 8, 11, or 15 days. This work supports the future translational development of favipiravir as an EVD therapeutic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Deterministic and Statistical Models for Water Quality Compliance Forecasting in the San Joaquin River Basin, California

Model selection for water quality forecasting depends on many factors including analyst expertise and cost, stakeholder involvement and expected performance. Water quality forecasting in arid river basins is especially challenging given the importance of protecting beneficial uses in these environments and the livelihood of agricultural communities. In the agriculture-dominated San Joaquin River Basin of California, real-time salinity management (RTSM) is a state-sanctioned program that helps to maximize allowable salt export while protecting existing basin beneficial uses of water supply. The RTSM strategy supplants the federal total maximum daily load (TMDL) approach that could impose fines associated with exceedances of monthly and annual salt load allocations of up to $1 million per year based on average year hydrology and salt load export limits. The essential components of the current program include the establishment of telemetered sensor networks, a web-based information system for sharing data, a basin-scale salt load assimilative capacity forecasting model and institutional entities tasked with performing weekly forecasts of river salt assimilative capacity and scheduling west-side drainage export of salt loads. Web-based information portals have been developed to share model input data and salt assimilative capacity forecasts together with increasing stakeholder awareness and involvement in water quality resource management activities in the river basin. Two modeling approaches have been developed simultaneously. The first relies on a statistical analysis of the relationship between flow and salt concentration at three compliance monitoring sites and the use of these regression relationships for forecasting. The second salt load forecasting approach is a customized application of the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework (WARMF), a watershed water quality simulation model that has been configured to estimate daily river salt assimilative capacity and to provide decision support for real-time salinity management at the watershed level. Analysis of the results from both model-based forecasting approaches over a period of five years shows that the regression-based forecasting model, run daily Monday to Friday each week, provided marginally better performance. However, the regression-based forecasting model assumes the same general relationship between flow and salinity which breaks down during extreme weather events such as droughts when water allocation cutbacks among stakeholders are not evenly distributed across the basin. A recent test case shows the utility of both models in dealing with an exceedance event at one compliance monitoring site recently introduced in 2020.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Microbial Profiling and Tracer Testing for the Characterization of Injector-Producer Interwell Connectivities

Insufficient understanding of the microbial communities and associated microbial processes in geological reservoirs hinders the utilization of this rich data source for improved resource management. In this study, along with four interwell tracer tests at a 1478-m deep fractured crystalline-rock aquifer, we analyzed the microbial communities in the injected and produced water by high-throughput sequencing. The microbial community similarities across boreholes during an interwell flow scenario frequently encountered in reservoir development was explored. Despite the significant tracer recoveries (~30%) in all tracer tests and the cumulatively >100,000 L of exogenous water (carrying exogenous microbes) injected into the 10-m-scale reservoir, the overall structure of produced-fluid microbiome did not increasingly resemble that of the injectate. However, producers with better connectivity with the injector (based on tracer test results) did have more amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) that overlapped with those in the injectate. We identified possible drivers behind our observations and verified the practicality of repeated microbial sampling in the context of reservoir characterization and long-term monitoring. We highlight that injector-producer microbial profiling could provide insights on the relative connectivities across different producers with a given injector, and that the associated logistical needs may be comparable or even less than that of classic tracer tests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Properties of Quasars with and without Rapid Broad Absorption Line Variability

We investigate the correlation between rest-frame UV flux variability of broad absorption line (BAL) quasars and their variability in BAL equivalent widths (EWs) in a various timescale from <10 days to a few years in the quasar rest frame. We use the data sets of BAL EWs taken by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Reverberation Mapping project and photometric data taken by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory in the g and R bands and the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System in grizy bands. Our results are summarized as follows: (1) the distributions of flux variability versus BAL variability show weak, moderate, or a strong positive correlation; (2) there is no significant difference in flux variability amplitudes between BAL quasars with significant short timescale EW variability (called class S1) and without (class S2); (3) in all timescales considered in this paper, the class S1 quasars show systematically larger BAL variability amplitudes than those of the class S2 quasars; and (4) there are possible correlations between BAL variability and physical parameters of the quasars such as black hole masses (moderate positive), Eddington ratios, and accretion disk temperature (strong negative) in the class S2 quasars. These results indicate that the BAL variability requires changing in the ionizing continuum and an ancillary mechanism such as variability in X-ray shielding gas located at the innermost region of an accretion disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗