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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Interactions Between Climate and Species Drive Future Forest Carbon and Water Balances

Global change is altering forest carbon and water balances; however, the extent to which tree species shape ecosystem‐scale responses to climate, particularly in biodiverse forests, remains unclear. To address this, we simulated the effects of an envelope of future climate conditions on watershed carbon and water balances and quantified the contributions of tree species based on their xylem anatomy. We accomplished this by incorporating species‐level transpiration calculations into a landscape‐scale ecosystem process model. Our revised model linked the effects of forest succession, species composition, and climate change on water and carbon. Calibration of forest water fluxes using sap flux measurements and catchment water balances captured variability in species transpiration and interannual ET in biodiverse, humid temperate forest catchments in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, USA. Across wet and dry future climate projections, ET increased, and streamflow and net carbon uptake decreased, particularly under a scenario of increasing drought. Despite accounting for just 30% of current biomass, diffuse‐porous tree species were the main driver of carbon and water flux responses now and in the future, thus intensifying the increase in ET and decline in streamflow. As diffuse‐porous biomass continues to increase, these forests will be increasingly sensitive to drought, amplifying losses of carbon sequestration and freshwater delivery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Addressing Coldwater Temperature Impairment in a Changing Climate

Climate change is concerning for fisheries professionals because increased water temperatures threaten coldwater habitats, which are vital to recreational and commercial fisheries and keystone species. The Clean Water Act provides a legal framework to identify and address water quality impairments including those associated with temperature. However, although this framework provides a basic strategy to identify impairments, develop total maximum daily loads, and reduce pollution, it does not explicitly consider the challenges of a changing climate in addressing water quality impairments. Clean Water Act administrators and fisheries professionals can facilitate temperature restoration planning and implementation using the Clean Water Act framework to link stakeholders to the management of coldwater resources. Stakeholder engagement and collaboration, robust local monitoring, and incorporating climate resilience into restoration planning and implementation will promote comprehensive management of temperature impairments and the effects of climate change on fisheries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere climate in E3SM

The characteristics of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their impacts on climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere are important metrics for evaluating a climate system model. Observational analyses reveal that the horizontal and vertical structures in the AO and NAO exhibit a meridional dipole and a large-scale barotropic pattern between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Historical model simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST) are used to identify how well it captures these major climate modes. It is found that the simulated AO and NAO modes have spatial structures similar to the observed features. In addition, the observed frequency bands in the AO and NAO-related time variability are captured well in the E3SM-HIST simulation. Associated with the positive phase in wintertime AO and NAO, zonal flow and warm advection in mid-latitude continents are enhanced, along with stronger cold flow from enhanced northerly winds over high latitudes. These features are linked to the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected by lower SLP anomalies over the Arctic and higher SLP anomalies over the mid-latitudes. In E3SM-HIST, these spatial associations and main structural features are analogous to those in observations. In the time-height evolution related to winter AO and NAO modes, it can also be seen that the simulations reproduce the downward propagating patterns in observations. Nevertheless, the vertical structures associated with AO and NAO in E3SM-HIST exhibit substantial biases in the lower stratosphere. The cause of these stratospheric biases is investigated using the strength of climatological stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and wave activity fluxes. The results herein suggest that E3SM-HIST has a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed characteristics related to the winter AO and NAO, although there exist systematic biases in the associated climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios

For aiming to keep global warming well-below 2 °C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, a full-fledged assessment of negative emission technologies (NETs) that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is crucial to inform science-based policy making. With the Paris Agreement in mind, we re-analyse available scenario evidence to understand the roles of NETs in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios and, for the first time, link this to a systematic review of findings in the underlying literature. In line with previous research, we find that keeping warming below 1.5 °C requires a rapid large-scale deployment of NETs, while for 2 °C, we can still limit NET deployment substantially by ratcheting up near-term mitigation ambition. Most recent evidence stresses the importance of future socio-economic conditions in determining the flexibility of NET deployment and suggests opportunities for hedging technology risks by adopting portfolios of NETs. Importantly, our thematic review highlights that there is a much richer set of findings on NETs than commonly reflected upon both in scientific assessments and available reviews. In particular, beyond the common findings on NETs underpinned by dozens of studies around early scale-up, the changing shape of net emission pathways or greater flexibility in the timing of climate policies, there is a suite of “niche and emerging findings”, e.g. around innovation needs and rapid technological change, termination of NETs at the end of the twenty-first century or the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of NETs that have not been widely appreciated. Future research needs to explore the role of climate damages on NET uptake, better understand the geophysical constraints of NET deployment (e.g. water, geological storage, climate feedbacks), and provide a more systematic assessment of NET portfolios in the context of sustainable development goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A modeling examination of cloud seeding conditions under the warmer climate in Utah, USA

Assessment of how the wintertime cloud seeding conditions over Utah's mountains may change provides essential information for the state to work on increasing its snowpack in the warmer climate. Here in this study, data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research's high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to evaluate suitable conditions for wintertime cloud seeding over Utah's mountains, and to estimate future changes to these conditions under a pseudo-global warming scenario. While previous studies have examined historical cloud seeding conditions, this is the first study that explores the impact of future climate change on these conditions. Based on two atmospheric variables commonly used in cloud-seeding operations, i.e. average temperature from the surface to 1 km above ground level (-20 °C≤T≤-6 °C) and vertically integrated supercooled liquid water (SLW > 0.01 mm), Utah's mountains are suitable for seeding more than 20% of the time during winter. A greater rate of suitability exists in the northern and Uinta Mountains. In the warmer climate under a high-emissions scenario, these seeding conditions may wane as the percentage of precipitating clouds suitable for seeding, about 60% under current conditions, would decline to about 40% across the state with significance. This projected decrease is due to rising temperatures and a decreased frequency of precipitation events. These findings imply that climate warming will narrow the window of opportunity for winter cloud seeding operation in Utah.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Rethinking HVAC temperature setpoints in commercial buildings: The potential for zero-cost energy savings and comfort improvement in different climates, Building and Environment

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems are responsible for a significant share of the energy consumed in commercial buildings. While energy system retrofits have been found to reduce buildings' carbon footprint substantially, these measures are often hindered by financial, regulatory or design constraints. Recent research sheds light on energy management approaches to energy conservation such as energy-efficient settings of HVAC temperature setpoints. While existing case studies confirm the significant energy saving potential of efficient HVAC operation, there is scarcity of studies quantifying energy savings from optimal HVAC temperature setpoints comprehensively, while controlling for important factors, such as guaranteeing tenant thermal comfort levels and the impact of different climate conditions on the results. In this work, we apply simulation-based multi-objective optimization to fine-tune heating and cooling setpoints of large “typical” office buildings with respect to energy consumption and occupant thermal comfort. We apply the framework in seven climate zones across the US in an effort to examine spatial variations in the energy savings potential due to different climate conditions and propose targeted energy-saving strategies and policies. We show that locations with mild climates, such as San Francisco, CA, can realize up to 60% of annual HVAC-related energy savings without compromising the occupants' thermal comfort. This untapped potential to simultaneously improve building performance and occupants’ comfort drives the discussion on revisiting HVAC setpoint configuration standards in commercial buildings, either as part of individual building retrofit planning or as part of energy policy regulations.

Papadopoulos, Sokratis↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013–2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A temperature threshold to identify the driving climate forces of the respiratory process in terrestrial ecosystems

Terrestrial ecosystem respiration (R e ) is the second largest carbon flux between the biosphere and atmosphere. Therefore, climate-driven changes of Re greatly impact on future atmospheric CO 2 concentration. The aim of this study was to derive an air temperature threshold to identify the driving climate forces of the respiratory process in terrestrial ecosystems within different temperature zones. A global dataset of 647 site-years of ecosystem flux data and related variables were collected at 152 sites. The quantile regression was applied to evaluate relationships between the maximum realizable Re rates and mean annual air temperature (MAT) as well as other micrometeorological factors (i.e., atmospheric CO 2 concentration, atmospheric water content, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, precipitation, relative humidity, and soil water content). Our analysis revealed an ecosystem threshold of MAT of 11 ± 2.3 °C. In ecosystems with MATs lower than the threshold, the maximum R e rates were primarily dependent on temperature and respiration was mainly a temperature-driven process. In ecosystems with MATs higher than the threshold, besides MAT, other factors, such as water availability and surface heat flux, became significant driving forces of the maximum Re rates and respiration was a multi-factor-driven process. Temperature played the key role in generation of the maximum R e rates in the terrestrial ecosystems, while other driving forces reduce the maximum R e rates and the temperature sensitivity of the respiratory process. According to a regression tree analysis, MAT was also the most influencing factor of mean R e rates among the climate forces. The information from this study should be useful to predict the respiratory process in terrestrial ecosystems with different temperatures under the climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydraulic safety and growth rather than climate of origin influence survival in desert shrubs and trees

The species-poor woodlands and forests in arid regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change induced plant die-off. Searching for species suitable to replant in these areas is an effective way to prevent further expansion of land desertification. Good knowledge of drought resistance of species is critical for current replanting efforts, however, the related plant survival mechanisms in the process of restoration remain limited. Here, we tested the dominant drivers of plant survival in relation to climate factors, growth characteristics and functional traits including hydraulics and gas exchange across 35 multiple shrub and tree woody species in a common garden at the Tengger Desert, northwest China. We found the desert plants had a wide range of hydraulic thresholds among these desert species, with relative high hydraulic safety, and low xylem hydraulic conductivity. Pant survival was largely determined by hydraulic safety and growth status, but was not affected by the climate of the species’ site of origin. Shrubs and trees diverged in hydraulic and growth characteristics, while there was no difference between native and introduced species. In this study, our results highlight the critical roles of hydraulic safety and growth on determining the survival and drought adaptation during desert vegetation development, which provide a new insight into ecological restoration in arid regions under changing climate conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Toward optimal soil organic carbon sequestration with effects of agricultural management practices and climate change in Tai-Lake paddy soils of China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is critical for implementing optimal farming practices and maintaining agricultural productivity. This study examines the influence of climate and agricultural management on carbon sequestration potentials in Tai-Lake Paddy soils of China using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, with a high-resolution soil database (1:50,000). Model simulations considered the effects of no tillage, increasing manure application, increasing/decreasing of N-fertilizer application and crop residues, water management, and climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation. We found that the carbon sequestration potential for the 2.32 Mha paddy soils of the Tai-Lake region varied from 4.71 to 44.31 Tg C during the period 2001-2019, with an annual average SOC changes ranged from 107 to 1005 kg C ha -1 yr -1 . The sequestration potential significantly increased with increasing application of N-fertilizer, manure, conservation tillage, and crop residues. To increase soil C sequestration in this region, no-tillage and increasing of crop residue return to soils and manure application are recommended. Our analysis of climate impacts on SOC sequestration suggests that the rice paddies in this region will continue to be a carbon sink under future warming conditions. In addition, because the region’s annual precipitation (>1200 mm) is high, we also recommend reducing irrigation water use for these rice paddies to conserve freshwater in the Tai-Lake region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mercury linked to Deccan Traps volcanism, climate change and the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Mercury (Hg) anomalies linked to Large Igneous Provinces (LIP) volcanism have been identified in sediments across all five major mass extinctions in Earth's history. This study tests whether Hg in marine sediments is a reliable proxy linking Deccan Traps volcanic eruptions to late Maastrichtian global climate warming and the mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (KPB). Our primary test site is the Elles section in Tunisia, the auxiliary Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) to El Kef. Elles has the most complete marine sedimentary record and a high average sedimentation rate of ~4.7 cm/ky. Here, we chose the Hor Hahar section in Israel to corroborate the geographic distribution of Hg fallout from Deccan volcanism. Reliability of the Hg proxy over the last 550 ky of the Maastrichtian to early Danian was evaluated based on high-resolution age control (orbital cyclostratigraphy), stable isotope climate record, Hg concentrations, biotic turnover and mass extinction. These results were correlated with the pulsed Deccan eruptive history constrained previously by U-Pb zircon geochronology. Our results support Hg as robust proxy for Deccan volcanism with large Hg spikes marking “extreme event” (EE) pulsed eruptions correlative with climate warming peaks separated by steady, less intense eruptions. Long-term global climate warming began near ~350 ky pre-KPB, reached maximum warming (3–4 °C) between 285 and 200 ky pre-KPB, followed by gradual cooling and rapid temperature drop between 45 and 25 ky pre-KPB. During the last 25 ky before the KPB, multiple Hg EE eruptions correlate with hyperthermal warming that culminated in the rapid mass extinction at Elles during ≤1000 years of the Cretaceous. These latest Cretaceous Hg peaks may correlate with massive, distal, Deccan-sourced lava flows (>1000 km long) that traversed the Indian subcontinent and flowed into the Bay of Bengal, bracketing the mass extinction. These results support Deccan volcanism as a primary driver of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of heat and mass transfer potential of a dew-point cooling tower in different climatic conditions

In this study, the performance of the Dew-Point Cooling Tower (DPCT) was analyzed for different factors in a variety of climate conditions. For this purpose, a dedicated numerical model describing heat and mass transfer processes was developed and validated. The results of the numerical simulations allowed to analyze the potential of utilizing the heat and mass transfer process with the dew-point phenomenon for water cooling. It was established that the operational parameters that have a high impact on the performance of the DPCT are: inlet water temperature and inlet air humidity ratio. It was also established that DPCT achieves the highest COP and Specific Cooling Capacity for cold subtropical highland climates and that it achieves highest Wet-bulb Effectiveness for monsoon-influenced humid subtropical climates. In conclusion, the regions where all the efficiency factors achieved above-average values included warm, arid, and desert climates.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble of global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

An automatic performance model-based scheduling tool for coupled climate system models

The prediction of the climate system is highly depended on the efficient integration of observations and simulations of the Earth. This is regarded as a canonical example of the cyber-physical system. The climate system model, the simulation engine in this cyber-physical system, is one of most challenging applications in scientific computing. It utilizes the multi-physics simulation that couples multiple components, conducts decadal to millennium simulations, and has long been an important application on supercomputers. However, current climate system models suffer from the inefficient task scheduling methods resulting in an intolerable simulation time. Take the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the most widely used climate system model, as an example, one major reason that CESM suffers from bad performances is the huge overhead to rationally distribute processes among the coupled heterogeneous components. According to the report of NCAR, every percent improvement in CESM performance frees up to the equivalent of $250,000 in computing resources in their scientific experiments. To address such challenge, our paper firstly constructs a lightweight and accurate performance model for effectively capturing and predicting the heterogeneous time-to-solution performance of end-to-end CESM components with a given simulation configuration. Then, based on the performance model, we further propose an efficient scheduling strategy based on rectangular packing method to determine the best process layout among different components, and the process numbers assigned to each component. Our evaluations show that we can achieve 58% average run time reductions on CESM comparing to the widely used sequential process layout for a scale of 144 to 480 cores on typical CPU clusters. And we can save 4 million CPU hours when we conduct one standard scientific experiment (a 2870-year simulation), which equals to save $40,089 with a charge of $0.01 per CPU hour. Meanwhile, 26% extra performance improvements could also be gained in our methods comparing to the heuristic branch and bound algorithm with the guidance of the known curve-fitting performance model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate-eutrophication-anoxia interactions in Late Glacial Soppensee, Switzerland: Forcings, non-linear responses and recovery

Combined effects of climate warming and anthropogenic nutrient loadings lead to lake eutrophication and anoxia globally. Because of chemical feedbacks, lakes under multiple stressors often respond in non-linear ways. However, it remains unclear whether climate change alone can lead to non-linear lake responses in the absence of anthropogenic nutrient disturbances. Here, we investigate the interactions between climate variability, nutrient cycling and trophic state changes, mixing regimes, anoxia and related chemical feedback in a small kettle-hole lake in Switzerland during Late Glacial times (15.2–12.6 cal ka BP), a period known for high-amplitude climate change in pre-anthropogenic times. After its formation during Heinrich Stadial 1 (>15 cal ka BP), Soppensee was oligotrophic and well-mixed. Soppensee became eutrophic and developed anoxia at 14.25 cal ka BP. Phosphorus (P) was released from sediments through the reductive dissolution of Fe-oxyhydroxides, fuelling eutrophication. Eutrophication lagged the Bølling warming (14.65 cal ka BP) by 400 years, suggesting that rising temperatures were not the trigger for eutrophication. Instead, eutrophication responded non-linearly to forest closure (threshold at 76 % arboreal pollen AP), which shielded Soppensee from wind mixing, enhancing lake stratification, anoxia and P release, intensifying eutrophication. These conditions ended during the 200-years cold period of the Aegelsee Oscillation (GI-1d, ca. 14.0 cal ka BP) when the landscape regionally opened (AP<76 %); the lake became well-mixed, oxygenated and P was efficiently sequestered. Throughout the Allerød (13.9–12.8 cal ka BP), enhanced Fe input prompted diagenetic vivianite formation, sequestering P in sediments, naturally remediating lake eutrophication despite closed forests, warm temperatures, lake stratification and anoxia.

Environmental sciences↗