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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Flexible Gasification of Coal and Biomass to Generate Carbon Free Electric Power and Hydrogen

This paper describes the development of a coal and biomass-fed plant concept to co-produce electric power and hydrogen with net-negative CO2 emissions under the aegis of the 21st Century Power Plant initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), whose goal is to advance innovative power plant concepts that are capable of flexible, net-zero carbon emission operations while producing cost-effective “blue” hydrogen to support economy-wide decarbonization goals. The proposed standalone plant will be in Nebraska, USA. The specified design feedstock is a hybrid blend of Powder River Basin (PRB) subbituminous coal from Wyoming and local Nebraska biomass (corn stover), 50 wt.% each (dry basis). Other potential feedstocks, including woody biomass (eastern red cedar) and waste plastic (auto shredder residue) were evaluated or reviewed as alternates. The proposed process block comprises a high-pressure, oxygen-blown fluidized bed gasifier (GTI Energy U-GAS® process) coupled with water gas shift, the Selexol process for acid gas (H2S and CO2) removal, and pressure-swing adsorption (PSA) to yield 8,500 kg/h of high-purity hydrogen. The off gas from the PSA unit is used in the power block (gas turbine combined cycle) to generate electric power to support the gasification process, hydrogen production, and 50 MWe net electric power to the grid. All major plant equipment including the gasifier, gas cleanup system, and power generation are commercially available and proven in other applications and considered at TRL 8-9. However, gasification of corn stover biomass is considered at TRL 6. Overall thermal efficiency of the plant is 50% (net HHV) with net atmospheric CO2 removal at a rate of 250-300,000 tpa. Design activities necessary to provide input to a FEED study (Phase II of the project), including the development of the Environmental Information Volume (EIV) for the host site, and an investment case, based on a pro-forma pre-FEED level cost estimate, have been completed and are described in detail in this paper.

Gülen, S. Can↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unraveling the effects of management and climate on carbon fluxes of U.S. croplands using the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem (LTAR) network

Understanding the carbon fluxes and dynamics from a broad range of agricultural systems has the potential to improve our ability to increase carbon sequestration while maintaining crop yields. Short-term, single-location studies have limited applicability, but long-term data from a network of many locations can provide a broader understanding across gradients of climate and management choices. Here we examine eddy covariance measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes from cropland sites across the United States Department of Agriculture's Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network. The dataset was collected between 2001 and 2020, spanning 13 sites for a total of 182 site-years. Average seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were determined, and subsequent regression analysis on these “flux climatologies” was used to identify relationships to mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), cropping systems, and management practices. At rainfed sites, carbon fluxes were better correlated with MAP (r2 ≤ 0.5) than MAT (r2 ≤ 0.22). Net carbon balance was different among cropping systems (p < 0.001), with the greatest net carbon uptake occurring in sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids) and the least in soybean (Glycine max) fields. Crop type had a greater effect on carbon balance than irrigation management at a Nebraska site. Across cropping systems, grain crops often had higher GPP and were more likely to have net uptake when compared to legume crops. This multi-site analysis highlights the potential of the LTAR network to further carbon flux research using eddy covariance measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction

Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Customer economics of residential photovoltaic systems: Sensitivities to changes in wholesale market design and rate structures

We report that the customer economics of U.S. residential photovoltaics (PV) often depend on retail electricity rates, because most utilities compensate customer-sited PV generation via net metering. The future bill savings from net metering are uncertain and dependent on retail rate structures, wholesale market design, and renewable penetration levels, among other factors. We explore the impact of the following assumptions on the bill savings from residential PV: a wholesale electricity market design with a price cap (as opposed to an energy-only market); a retail rate with a fixed customer charge (as opposed to a fully volumetric rate); and increasing-block pricing (as opposed to a non-varying flat rate). A wholesale price cap can dampen the expected bill-savings erosion due to moving from a low to a high renewables scenario for customers with time-varying rates and net metering. Moving from a fully volumetric rate to a two-part tariff rate with a fixed customer charge could severely Erode the bill savings under net metering, because PV generation could only displace the (reduced) volumetric portion of the rate. Lastly, increasing-block pricing might have an even greater impact on the bill savings from behind-the-meter PV than the other uncertainties explored in this paper.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electron energy gain due to a laser frequency modulation experienced by electron during betatron motion

Direct laser acceleration of electrons is an important energy deposition mechanism for laser-irradiated plasmas that is particularly effective at relativistic laser intensities in the presence of quasi-static laser-driven plasma electric and magnetic fields. These radial electric and azimuthal magnetic fields provide transverse electron confinement by inducing betatron oscillations of forward-moving electrons undergoing laser acceleration. Electrons are said to experience a betatron resonance when the frequency of betatron oscillations matches the average frequency of the laser field oscillations at the electron position. In this paper, we show that the modulation of the laser frequency as seen by an electron performing betatron oscillations can be another important mechanism for net energy gain that is qualitatively different from the betatron resonance. Specifically, we show that the frequency modulation experienced by the electron can lead to net energy gain in the regime where the laser field performs three oscillations per betatron oscillation. There is no net energy gain in this regime without the modulation because the energy gain is fully compensated by the energy loss. The modulation slows down the laser oscillation near transverse stopping points, increasing the time interval during which the electron gains energy and making it possible to achieve net energy gain.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Distributionally Robust Optimization Framework for Stochastic Assessment of Power System Flexibility in Economic Dispatch

Given the complexity of power systems, particularly the high-dimensional variability of net loads, accurately depicting the entire operational range of net loads poses a challenge. To address this, recent methodologies have sought to gauge the maximum range of net load uncertainty across all buses. In this paper, we consider the stochastic nature of the net load and introduce a distributionally robust optimization framework that assesses system flexibility stochastically, accommodating a minimal extent of system violations. We verify the proposed method by solving the flexibility of the economic dispatch problem on four distinct IEEE standard test systems. Compared to traditional deterministic flexibility evaluations, our approach consistently yields less conservative flexibility outcomes.

distributionally robust optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual carbon sequestration and loss rates under altered hydrology and fire regimes in southeastern USA pocosin peatlands

Peatlands drained for agriculture or forestry are susceptible to the rapid release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) through enhanced microbial decomposition and increased frequency of deep peat fires. We present evidence that rewetting drained subtropical wooded peatlands (STWPs) along the southeastern USA coast, primarily pocosin bogs, could prevent significant carbon (C) losses. To quantify GHG emissions and storage from drained and rewetted pocosin we used eddy covariance techniques, the first such estimates that have been applied to this major bog type, on a private drained (PD) site supplemented by static chamber measurements at PD and Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge. Net ecosystem exchange measurements showed that the loss was 21.2 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 (1 Mg = 10 6 g) in the drained pocosin. Under a rewetted scenario, where the annual mean water table depth (WTD) decreased from 60 to 30 cm, the C loss was projected to fall to 2 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , a 94% reduction. If the WTD was 20 cm, the peatlands became a net carbon sink (–3.3 Mg CO2 ha –1 year –1 ). Hence, net C reductions could reach 24.5 Mg CO 2 ha –1 year –1 , and when scaled up to the 4000 ha PD site nearly 100,000 Mg CO 2 year –1 of creditable C could be amassed. We conservatively estimate among the 0.75 million ha of southeastern STWPs, between 450 and 770 km 2 could be rewet, reducing annual GHG emissions by 0.96–1.6 Tg (1 Tg = 10 12 g) of CO 2 , through suppressed microbial decomposition and 1.7–2.8 Tg via fire prevention, respectively. Despite covering <0.01% of US land area, rewetting drained pocosin can potentially provide 2.4% of the annual CO 2 nationwide reduction target of 0.18 Pg (1 Pg = 10 15 g). Finally, suggesting pocosin restoration can contribute disproportionately to the US goal of achieving net-zero emission by 2050.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meteorological Conditions in Urban Sites in Knoxville, USA. 2023

This 2023 dataset, which contains four csv files, reports hourly air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, incident short wave, reflected short wave, incident long wave, emitted long wave, net radiation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data measured in urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The sites include Cumberland Estates Park (CEP), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SEEED), West Hills (WHP), and Victor Ashe Park (VAP). Air temperature, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation data were obtained from a METER ATMOS 41 All-in-One Weather Station (Pullman, Washington, USA). Incident and emitted radiation (shortwave and longwave) measurements were made using an Apogee (Logan, Utah, USA) net radiometer (Model SN-500-SS). The SQ-521 Full-Spectrum Quantum sensor (Apogee Instruments, Inc) recorded the PAR. The measurement data for CEP, SEEED, and VAP started on July 1, 2023, while WHP started on August 26, 2023. All measurement ended on December 31, 2023. This work is a part of a larger study which investigates the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity in several city parks in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗
DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological Conditions in Urban Sites in Knoxville, USA. 2025

This 2025 dataset, which contains five csv files, reports hourly air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, incident short wave, reflected short wave, incident long wave, emitted long wave, net radiation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) data measured in urban parks in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The sites include Cumberland Estates Park (CEP), Socially Equal Energy Efficient Development (SEEED), West Hills Park (WHP), West View Park (WVP), and Victor Ashe Park (VAP). Air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation data were obtained from a METER ATMOS 41 All-in-One Weather Station (Pullman, Washington, USA). Incident and emitted radiation (shortwave and longwave) measurements were made using an Apogee (Logan, Utah, USA) net radiometer (Model SN-500-SS). The SQ-521 Full-Spectrum Quantum sensor (Apogee Instruments, Inc) recorded the PAR. The measurement data for all the sites started on January 1, 2025. and all measurement ended on December 31, 2025. This work is a part of a larger study which investigates the impact of soil moisture and plant evapotranspiration on ambient temperature and relative humidity in several city parks in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Salvador, Christian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000283287777↗
DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot. Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive concentrating solar power (CSP) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Although CSP costs continue to decline toward SunShot targets, CSP acceptance and deployment have been hindered by inexpensive photovoltaics (PV). However, a recent analysis found that thermal energy storage (TES) could increase CSP's value--based on combined operational and capacity benefits--by up to 6 cents/kWh compared to variable-generation PV, under a 40% renewable portfolio standard in California. Thus, the high grid value of CSP-TES must be considered when evaluating renewable energy options. An assessment of net system cost accounts for the difference between the costs of adding new generation and the avoided cost from displacing other resources providing the same level of energy and reliability. The net system costs of several CSP configurations are compared with the net system costs of conventional natural-gas-fired combustion-turbine (CT) and combined-cycle plants. At today's low natural gas prices and carbon emission costs, the economics suggest a peaking configuration for CSP. However, with high natural gas prices and emission costs, each of the CSP configurations compares favorably against the conventional alternatives, and systems with intermediate to high capacity factors become the preferred alternatives. Another analysis compares net system costs for three configurations of CSP versus PV with batteries and PV with CTs. Under current technology costs, the least-expensive option is a combination of PV and CTs. However, under future cost assumptions, the optimal configuration of CSP becomes the most cost-effective option.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Surface Meteorology, Barrow, Alaska, Area A, B, C and D, Ongoing from 2012

Meteorological data are being collected at several points within four intensive study areas in Barrow. These data assist in the calculation of the energy balance at the land surface and are also useful as inputs into modeling activities. (https://doi.org/10.5440/1164893). Measurements at AREA A (all heights listed are relative to the land surface): Location of the Site A station: N71* 16.888', W156* 36.647' * Air temperature at three heights: 1.4 meters, 2.0 meters, 3.5 meters * Relative Humidity / Dew Point at two heights: 1.4 meters, 3.5 meters * Wind Speed at two heights: 1.3 meters, 3.5 meters * 4 Component Net Radiation @ 1.2 meters ** Upwelling & Downwelling Shortwave Radiation ** Upwelling & Downwelling Longwave Radiation * Summer Precipitation Site A is located on polygonal permafrost and co-located with continuous snow depth measurements and subsurface measurements. Measurements at AREA B (all heights listed are relative to the land surface): Location of the Site B station: N71* 16.785', W156* 36.211' * Air temperature at three heights: 1.4 meters, 2.0 meters, 3.5 meters * Relative Humidity / Dew Point at two heights: 1.4 meters, 3.5 meters * Wind Speed at two heights: 1.3 meters, 3.5 meters * 4 Component Net Radiation @ 1.2 meters ** Upwelling & Downwelling Shortwave Radiation ** Upwelling & Downwelling Longwave Radiation * Summer Precipitation Site B is located on polygonal permafrost and co-located with continuous snow depth measurements and subsurface measurements. ------------------------------------------------- Measurements at AREA C (all heights listed are relative to the land surface): Location of the Site C station: N71* 16.804', W156* 36.072' * Air temperature at three heights: 1.4 meters, 2.0 meters, 3.5 meters * Relative Humidity / Dew Point at two heights: 1.4 meters, 3.5 meters * Wind Speed at two heights: 1.3 meters, 3.5 meters * 4 Component Net Radiation @ 1.2 meters ** Upwelling & Downwelling Shortwave Radiation ** Upwelling & Downwelling Longwave Radiation * Summer Precipitation * Barometric Pressure Site C is located on polygonal permafrost and co-located with continuous snow depth measurements and subsurface measurements. ------------------------------------------------- Measurements at AREA D (all heights listed are relative to the land surface): Location of the Site D station: N71* 16.927', W156* 36.036' * Air temperature at one height: 1.2 meters * Relative Humidity / Dew Point at one height: 1.2 * Wind Speed at one height: 1.2 meters * 4 Component Net Radiation @ 1.0 meters ** Upwelling & Downwelling Shortwave Radiation ** Upwelling & Downwelling Longwave Radiation Site D is located on polygonal permafrost and co-located with continuous snow depth measurements and subsurface measurements. Data are in ASCII files, with columns separated by commas: ','

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling impacts of changes in temperature and water table on C gas fluxes in an Alaskan peatland: Modeling C Gas Fluxes in Peatland

Northern peatlands have accumulated a large amount of organic carbon (C) in their thick peat profile. Climate change and associated variations in soil environments are expected to have significant impacts on the C balance of these ecosystems, but the magnitude is still highly uncertain. Verifying and understanding the influences of changes in environmental factors on C gas fluxes in biogeochemical models are essential for forecasting feedbacks between C gas fluxes and climate change. In this study, we applied a biogeochemical model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), to assess impacts of air temperature (T A ) and water table (WT) on C gas fluxes in an Alaskan peatland. DNDC was validated against field measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) and CH 4 fluxes under manipulated surface soil temperature and WT conditions in a moderate rich fen. The validation demonstrates that DNDC was able to capture the observed impacts of the manipulations in soil environments on C gas fluxes. To investigate responses of C gas fluxes to changes in T A and soil water condition, we conducted a series of simulations with varying T A and WT. The results demonstrate that (1) uptake rates of CO 2 at the site were reduced by either too colder or warmer temperatures and generally increased with increasing soil moisture; (2) CH 4 emissions showed an increasing trend as TA increased or WT rose toward the peat surface; and (3) the site could shift from a net greenhouse gas (GHG) sink into a net GHG source under some warm and/or dry conditions. A sensitivity analysis evaluated the relative importance of T A and WT to C gas fluxes. The results indicate that both T A and WT played important roles in regulating NEE and CH 4 emissions and that within the investigated ranges of the variations in T A and WT, changes in WT showed a greater impact than changes in T A on NEE, CH 4 fluxes, and net C gas fluxes at the study fen.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in North America from 1990 to 2012

Abstract Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long‐term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process‐based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire‐caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 ± 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990–2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was −26.09 ± 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990–2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire‐caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long‐term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990–2012.

Chen, Guangsheng↗
DOE OSTI2016

What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?

Here, the 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 2 or 1.5°C above preindustrial level, although combined Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are likely insufficient to achieve these targets. We propose a set of idealized emission pathways consistent with the targets. If countries reduce emissions in line with their INDCs, the 2°C threshold could be avoided only if net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) are achieved by 2085 and late century negative emissions are considerably in excess of those assumed in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 (net –5 Gt CO 2 /yr, compared with –1.5 Gt CO 2 /yr in RCP2.6). More aggressive near-term reductions would allow 2°C to be avoided with less end-of-century carbon removal capacity. A 10% cut in GHGEs by 2030 (relative to 2015) could likely achieve 2°C with RCP2.6 level negative emissions. The 1.5°C target requires GHGEs to be reduced by almost a third by 2030 and net zero by 2050, while a 50 year overshoot of 1.5°C allows net zero GHGEs by 2060.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in‐depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud‐related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗