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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

How the Open Data Policy of the Landsat Program Has Advanced Our Understanding of Environmental Change

A time series is a sequence of observations of a phenomenon taken sequentially in time. A crucial characteristic of a time series is the dependence among adjacent observations – techniques for analyzing this dependence are referred to as time series analysis. This analytical approach enables us to predict or forecast future values of a time series, study the impact of various inputs on the observed phenomenon, and examine interrelationships among related time series variables. Within the geographical sciences, time series analysis has historically been limited to coarse-resolution satellite data, as constructing time series of data suitable for studying land cover and land use dynamics, such as Landsat data, were prohibitively costly. A transformative shift occurred in 2008 when the U.S. Government decided to make free and open all past and future data collected by the Landsat satellite program. The decision brought about a paradigm shift away from analyzing individual images or observations to continuous monitoring in time. Of particular relevance to environmental remote sensing is the ability to forecast observations – if we can predict how future observations should behave, we can infer information about how the land surface is changing. In this presentation, we will examine literature examples that showcase scientific gains enabled by time series analysis of satellite data. We will delve into how the analysis of dense time series of satellite data revealed that overall rate of forest disturbance in the Amazon has increased despite a reduction in deforestation; how different types of forest degradation, previously unquantified, are now being accurately assessed in the Caucasus region; and how we now can study the highly dynamic and intricate patterns of shifting cultivation in Southeast Asia.

Pontus Olofsson↗

Transition Heat Transfer Modeling Based on the Characteristics of Turbulent Spots

While turbulence models are being developed which show promise for simulating the transition region on a turbine blade or vane, it is believed that the best approach with the greatest potential for practical use is the use of models which incorporate the physics of turbulent spots present in the transition region. This type of modeling results in the prediction of transition region intermittency which when incorporated in turbulence models give a good to excellent prediction of the transition region heat transfer. Some models are presented which show how turbulent spot characteristics and behavior can be employed to predict the effect of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region. The models predict the spot formation rate which is needed, in addition to the transition onset location, in the Narasimha concentrated breakdown intermittency equation. A simplified approach is taken for modeling turbulent spot growth and interaction in the transition region which utilizes the turbulent spot variables governing transition length and spot generation rate. The models are expressed in terms of spot spreading angle, dimensionless spot velocity, dimensionless spot area, disturbance frequency and Mach number. The models are used in conjunction with a computer code to predict the effects of pressure gradient and Mach number on the transition region and compared with VKI experimental turbine data.

Simon, Fred↗

Soyuz Landing Reconstructions

Introduction: Recent data show a landing-attributed injury rate among Soyuz crew members to be higher than predicted in original certification analysis. New vehicles being developed for NASA are being certified using analytical tools to quantify injury risk. This assessment will provide data to allow the Agency to evaluate whether these tools are able to capture true injury risk and allow a comparison between Soyuz landings and upcoming vehicles. Methods: A finite element model (FEM) of the Soyuz descent module (DM) and its landing environment were developed to recreate Soyuz landing conditions. Occupant breakout models composed of the Soyuz seat and Sokol helmet were then developed to evaluate occupant response. These models included both anthropomorphic test device (ATD) and human body model (HBM) surrogates in three anthropometric sizes. A generalized distribution analysis of the Soyuz landing environment was performed using landing variable distributions from available literature. Results were used to identify trends in vehicle landing acceleration with landing conditions and to compare landing model injury risk predictions with those estimated in vehicle certification analysis. Next, historic Soyuz landings identified as inducing occupant injury during were reconstructed using the developed landing model and estimated landing conditions. Results and Discussion: This assessment demonstrated the capability of certification metrics, which include a combination of vehicle- and occupant-level injury risk analysis, to identify elevated injury risk landing conditions. However, the developed landing load predictions were limited by available vehicle and landing condition data. Additional data, particularly landing acceleration data specific to historic Soyuz landing conditions, would greatly enhance this assessment’s findings.

Preston Greenhalgh↗

Using Air Temperature to Quantitatively Predict the MODIS Fractional Snow Cover Retrieval Errors over the Continental US (CONUS)

In the middle to high latitude and alpine regions, the seasonal snow pack can dominate the surface energy and water budgets due to its high albedo, low thermal conductivity, high emissivity, considerable spatial and temporal variability, and ability to store and then later release a winters cumulative snowfall (Cohen, 1994; Hall, 1998). With this in mind, the snow drought across the U.S. has raised questions about impacts on water supply, ski resorts and agriculture. Knowledge of various snow pack properties is crucial for short-term weather forecasts, climate change prediction, and hydrologic forecasting for producing reliable daily to seasonal forecasts. One potential source of this information is the multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) project (Mitchell et al., 2004). Real-time NLDAS products are used for drought monitoring to support the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as initial conditions for a future NCEP drought forecast system. Additionally, efforts are currently underway to assimilate remotely-sensed estimates of land-surface states such as snowpack information into NLDAS. It is believed that this assimilation will not only produce improved snowpack states that better represent snow evolving conditions, but will directly improve the monitoring of drought.

MODIS↗

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

Modeling of Slosh Dynamics in Cryogenic Propellant Tanks in Microgravity Environments

The slosh dynamics in cryogenic fuel tanks under microgravity is a pressing problem that severely affects the reliability of launching spacecraft. After reaching low Earth orbit, the propellant in a multistage rocket experiences large and cyclic changes in temperature as a result of solar heating. Tank wall heating can induce thermal stratification and propellant boiloff, particularly during slosh-inducing vehicle maneuvers. Precise understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic effects of propellant slosh caused by these maneuvers is critical to mission performance and success. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis is used extensively within the space vehicle industry in an attempt to characterize the behavior of liquids in microgravity, yet experimental data to quantify these predictions is very limited and reduces confidence in the analytical predictions. A novel approach designed to produce high-fidelity data for correlation to CFD model predictions is being developed with the assistance of Florida Institute of Technology (FIT) and Sierra Lobo, Inc. With few exceptions, previous work in slosh dynamics was theoretical or treated the mass of fuel as a variable of inertia only; such models did not consider the viscosity, surface tension, or other important fluid effects. The challenges in this research are in the development of instrumentation able to measure the required parameters, the computational ability to quantify the fluid behaviors, and the means to assess both the measurements and predictions. The design of this experiment bridges the understanding of slosh dynamics in microgravity by a comprehensive approach that combines CFD tools, dynamic simulation tools, semianalytical models of the predominant fluid effects, and an experimental framework that includes measurement and characterization of liquid slosh in one-degree-of-freedom (DOF) and two-DOF experiments, and ultimately experiments in a NASA low-gravity aircraft.

Source record↗

Maximum Carbon Uptake Rate Dominates the Interannual Variability of Global Net Ecosystem Exchange

Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long‐term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water‐limited ecosystems versus temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water‐limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems. The Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter‐comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.

Fu, Zheng↗

Investigation of the three-dimensional turbulent flow downstream of swept slot injection in hypersonic flow

Results of an experimental and numerical investigation of tangential swept slot injection (sweep angles of 22.5 and 45 deg) into a thick turbulent boundary layer at Mach 6 are presented. Film cooling effectiveness, skin friction, and flow structure downstream of the swept slot injection are investigated. The data are compared to that for unswept slots, and it is found that cooling effectiveness and skin-friction reductions are not significantly affected by sweeping the slot. Predictions of cooling effectiveness and skin friction obtained by a numerical finite-difference technique agree reasonably well with experimental surface variables. As in previous supersonic two-dimensional slot research, reduced mixing was found downstream of the slot lip in the present three-dimensional case.

Hefner, J. N.↗

Study of multilayered insulation pipe penetration. Thermal acoustic oscillation

Tests were conducted to determine the net heat leak to a source of liquid nitrogen caused by a metal penetration through the blanket of multilayer insulation. The conditions under which the tests were conducted are described. A graph of the theoretical and experimental temperature distribution is developed for comparison. The variables involved in the computer program to process the data are defined. A study was conducted to develop analytical methods for predicting the effect and magnitudes of thermoacoustic oscillations on the penetration heat leak to cryogens. The oscillations develop as a result of large thermal gradients imposed on a compressible fluid. The predominant amplitudes and frequencies of the thermal acoustic oscillations were investigated.

Lovin, J. K.↗

Single shaft automotive gas turbine engine characterization test

An automotive gas turbine incorporating a single stage centrifugal compressor and a single stage radial inflow turbine is described. Among the engine's features is the use of wide range variable geometry at the inlet guide vanes, the compressor diffuser vanes, and the turbine inlet vanes to achieve improved part load fuel economy. The engine was tested to determine its performance in both the variable geometry and equivalent fixed geometry modes. Testing was conducted without the originally designed recuperator. Test results were compared with the predicted performance of the nonrecuperative engine based on existing component rig test maps. Agreement between test results and the computer model was achieved.

Johnson, R. A.↗

Solar transition region response to variations in the heating rate

The response of a numerical model for the upper chromosphere, transition region, and corona to variations in the energy input has been examined. The numerical model solves the set of one-dimensional two-fluid hydrodynamic equations in a simple vertical magnetic flux tube. The atmosphere responds to both the increase and decrease in energy deposition by smoothly readjusting the temperature gradient and the amount of material in the region of peak radiating efficiency to radiate away energy being deposited. At no time during this readjustment is a departure from a thin laminar transition region structure seen. In addition, a time-dependent description of the nonequilibrium ionization of all of the ionization stages of oxygen has been included. This calculation is coupled with the self-consistent calculations of the dynamical variables. It is found that the nonequilibrium ionization balance calculations for both heating and cooling small loops in the quiet sun predict relative ionic abundances which differ substantially from those which would be predicted by an equilibrium calculation

Mariska, J. T.↗

Flight-determined aerodynamic derivatives of the AD-1 oblique-wing research airplane

The AD-1 is a variable-sweep oblique-wing research airplane that exhibits unconventional stability and control characteristics. In this report, flight-determined and predicted stability and control derivatives for the AD-1 airplane are compared. The predictions are based on both wind tunnel and computational results. A final best estimate of derivatives is presented.

Sim, A. G.↗

The role of plasma wave turbulence in the formation of shock waves in collisionless plasmas

A data set containing measurements for approximately 100 shock crossings was compiled, and plasma wave profiles were plotted in conjunction with magnetic field data. Three emissions analyzed include upstream electron plasma oscillations, ion acoustic noise, and low frequency electromagnetic noise. The data demonstrate that the observed waves are consistent with generation by the kinetic cross-field streaming instability. Reanalysis of shock overshoots prompted by the presence of plasma feet upstream of nominally subcritical shocks leads to the conclusion that no firm evidence exists for a sharp subcritical supercritical transition. Electron plasma oscillations persist up to the ramps of subcritical shocks and begin decaying at the front edge of the feet of supercritical shocks. Their intensity is anticorrelated with the amplitude of the foot ion acoustic noise. Wave measurements support the predicted predominance of lower hybrid-like modes over ion acoustic noise in the production of resistive (plasma) heating. Evidence for variable shock normal angles is seen upstream from nominally quasiparallel shocks. The first cases of very strong electron heating observed at the terrestrial bow shock were discovered.

Mellott, M. M.↗

Effects of grain size and shape in modeling reflectance spectra of mineral mixtures

An 'isograin model' of reflectance from particulate material is presented. The model treats reflectance as a series of grain interactions, incorporating optical constants of each material and two parameters that model the activity of scattering and absorption in the vertical and the horizontal directions, respectively. Mixing ratios of components in mixture are treated as variables and are calculated using least-squares fit. Grain size and shape have a significant effect on the accuracy of predicting mixing ratios but can be modeled by introducing the concept of effective grain size. The model calculates spectra in good agreement with measured spectra and models reflectance within 1 percent and mixing ratios within 5 wt pct.

Hiroi, T.↗

Global temperature monitoring from space

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Spencer, R. W.↗

On modeling migrating solar tides

Recent updates and extensions to a steady-state two-dimensional linearized model of global-scale atmospheric waves have facilitated improved calculations of those which are subharmonics of a solar day and propagate with the apparent motion of the sun. The model improvements are briefly described and some updated predictions of the migrating solar diurnal component are highlighted. The latter represent the first numerical modeling effort to examining the seasonal variability of the migrating diurnal harmonic as it propagates into the mesosphere and lower thermosphere.

Hagan, M. E.↗

Searching for the Second Harmonic

To mathematically model the oscillations of a spherical bubble, either the time-dependent volume V(t) or the radius R(t) can be used as the dependent variable. A recent exchange between the advocates of the volume approach and the radius approach concerns in apparent discrepancy in the predicted nonlinear acoustic emissions from a bubble subject to a time-periodic external pressure field. This letter attempts to resolve the discrepancy via an examination of the arguments offered by both sides. In addition, some general comments on nonlinear harmonic and subharmonic emissions from acoustically forced bubble oscillations are presented.

Holt, R. Glynn↗

Durability and Damage Tolerance of High Temperature Polymeric Composites

Modern durability and damage tolerance predictions for composite material systems rely on accurate estimates of the local stress and material states for each of the constituents, as well as the manner in which the constituents interact. In this work, an number of approaches to estimating the stress states and interactions are developed. First, an elasticity solution is presented for the problem of a penny-shaped crack in an N-phase composite material system opened by a prescribed normal pressure. The stress state around such a crack is then used to estimate the stress concentrations due to adjacent fiber fractures in composite materials. The resulting stress concentrations are then used to estimate the tensile strength of the composite. The predicted results are compared with experimental values. In addition, a cumulative damage model for fatigue is presented. Modifications to the model are made to include the effects of variable amplitude loading. These modifications are based upon the use of remaining strength as a damage metric and the definition of an equivalent generalized time. The model is initially validated using results from the literature. Also, experimental data from APC-2 laminates and IM7/K3B laminates are used in the model. The use of such data for notched laminates requires the use of an effective hole size, which is calculated based upon strain distribution measurements. Measured remaining strengths after fatigue loading are compared with the predicted values for specimens fatigued at room temperature and 350 F (177 C).

Case, Scott W.↗