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NASA NTRS1998

Towards a Probabilistic Criterion for Preliminary Shell Design

Thin-walled stiffened or unstiffened, metallic or composite shells are widely used structural elements in aeronautical and space applications. Buckling strength, which is a major concern in all these areas, is affected by the uncertainties in the definition of loads, material properties, geometric variables, engineering models and the accuracy of the analysis tools used in the design phase. The NASA design criteria monographs from the late sixties account for these design uncertainties by the use of a lump sum safety factor or the so-called "knockdown" factor gamma, which usually results in an overly conservative design. In the present paper a new, reliability based, probabilistic design procedure for buckling critical imperfect isotropic shells is proposed. It essentially consists of a stochastic approach based on a new, improved "knockdown" factor lambda(sub a) that is not as conservative as the traditional one. It is felt that by quantifying and understanding the "problem uncertainties" such as initial imperfections and their influence on the design variables, one can develop a better engineered, better designed and safer system.

Arbocz, Johann↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mach Conference, 2022.

There has been considerable interest in chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) manufactured silicon carbide fiber and silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composite tubes due to their superior mechanical properties. The SiC/SiC tubes are known to remain stable even after prolonged exposure to radiation. However, there are many variables in the manufacturing of SiC/SiC composite tubes such as elastic constants of constituent SiC fiber and SiC matrix, braiding angle, porosity, and others whose values vary over a range. The intention is to identify the distribution of elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes which would help model the performance of the novel cladding material. To do so, a sensitivity analysis will be carried out to determine the dominant variables that influence the elastic constants of SiC/SiC tubes. A chosen number of combinations of dominant variables will be sampled through the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method. The elastic constants of composite tube namely Young's moduli in the circumferential and longitudinal direction, Poisson's ratio, and shear modulus will be calculated at sampled points through finite element (FE) analysis. A polynomial response surface (PRS) will be built for each of the elastic constants to be used as a surrogate to FE analysis. Once the predictive accuracy of PRS is verified at the validation set of data points, the PRS will be invoked 105 times in Monte Carlo simulations (MCS). The uncertainty can be quantified by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV) based on MCS-generated data which will be presented at the conference.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimation of Unbiased Expectation via Sample Reuse and the Low Variance Estimation of Asymptotic Rates

A new variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator [5, 3, 9, 12] is presented for the estimation of expectation statistics that utilizes sample reuse in specified levels, explicitly removes approximation error bias associated with numerically computed output quantities of interest that have an asymptotic limit behavior, and permits a low variance estimate of the asymptotic rate of convergence to that limit. In addition, it is shown that this new multilevel Monte Carlo variant can yield a computational cost savings. A review of Monte Carlo and multilevel Monte Carlo estimators is presented that includes analysis of expected value, expected mean squared error, and the calculation of optimized multilevel sample size parameters. The multilevel Monte Carlo estimator produces estimates of expectation for numerically approximated output quantities of interest that are biased by approximation error. When the quantity of interest can be modeled as the asymptotic limit of numerically approximated output quantities of interest, it is theoretically possible to remove this approximation error bias in the multilevel Monte Carlo estimator. In actual implementations, however, this procedure is unreliable due to statistical variability and inaccuracy in estimating the needed asymptotic limit. Analysis and numerical experiment show that the proposed variant of the multilevel Monte Carlo method greatly reduces (in some cases eliminates) the statistical variability in this limit estimation.

Barth, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States

Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1979

Maintenance cost study of rotary wing aircraft, phase 2

The Navy's maintenance and materials management data base was used in a study to determine the feasibility of predicting unscheduled maintenance costs for the dynamic systems of military rotary wing aircraft. The major operational and design variables were identified and the direct maintenance man hours per flight hour were obtained by step-wise multiple regression analysis. Five nonmilitary helicopter users were contacted to supply data on which variables were important factors in civil applications. These uses included offshore oil exploration and support, police and fire department rescue and enforcement, logging and heavy equipment movement, and U.S. Army military operations. The equations developed were highly effective in predicting unscheduled direct maintenance man hours per flying hours for military aircraft, but less effective for commercial or public service helicopters, probably because of the longer mission durations and the much higher utilization of civil users.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Ring, Robert W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment

This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tree Line Structure and Dynamics at the Northern Limit of the Larch Forest: Anabar Plateau, Siberia, Russia

The goal of the study was to provide an analysis of climate impact before, during, and after the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the larch (Larix gmelinii) tree line at the northern extreme of Siberian forests. Recent decadal climate change impacts on the tree line, regeneration abundance, and age structure were analyzed. The location of the study area was within the forest-tundra ecotone (elevation range 170-450 m) in the Anabar Plateau, northern Siberia. Field studies were conducted along elevational transects. Tree natality/mortality and radial increment were determined based on dendrochronology analyses. Tree morphology, number of living and subfossil trees, regeneration abundance, and age structure were studied. Locations of pre-LIA, LIA, and post-LIA tree lines and refugia boundaries were established. Long-term climate variables and drought index were included in the analysis. It was found that tree mortality from the 16th century through the beginning of the 19th century caused a downward tree line recession. Sparse larch stands experienced deforestation, transforming into tundra with isolated relict trees. The maximum tree mortality and radial growth decrease were observed to have occurred at the beginning of 18th century. Now larch, at its northern boundary in Siberia, is migrating into tundra areas. Upward tree migration was induced by warming in the middle of the 19th century. Refugia played an important role in repopulation of the forest-tundra ecotone by providing a seed source and shelter for recruitment of larch regeneration. Currently this ecotone is being repopulated mainly by tree cohorts that were established after the 1930s. The last two decades of warming did not result in an acceleration of regeneration recruitment because of increased drought conditions. The regeneration line reached (but did not exceed) the pre-LIA tree line location, although contemporary tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower than in the pre-LIA period. The mean rate of tree line upward migration has been about 0.35 m/yr (with a range of 0.21-0.58), which translates to a tree line response to temperature of about 55 m/deg C.

Northern Limit↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tracking blobs in the turbulent edge plasma of a tokamak fusion device

Abstract The analysis of turbulence in plasmas is fundamental in fusion research. Despite extensive progress in theoretical modeling in the past 15 years, we still lack a complete and consistent understanding of turbulence in magnetic confinement devices, such as tokamaks. Experimental studies are challenging due to the diverse processes that drive the high-speed dynamics of turbulent phenomena. This work presents a novel application of motion tracking to identify and track turbulent filaments in fusion plasmas, called blobs, in a high-frequency video obtained from Gas Puff Imaging diagnostics. We compare four baseline methods (RAFT, Mask R-CNN, GMA, and Flow Walk) trained on synthetic data and then test on synthetic and real-world data obtained from plasmas in the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV). The blob regime identified from an analysis of blob trajectories agrees with state-of-the-art conditional averaging methods for each of the baseline methods employed, giving confidence in the accuracy of these techniques. By making a dataset and benchmark publicly available, we aim to lower the entry barrier to tokamak plasma research, thereby greatly broadening the community of scientists and engineers who might apply their talents to this endeavor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1995

Minimization of the Vibration Energy of Thin-Plate Structures and the Application to the Reduction of Gearbox Vibration

While the vibration analysis of gear systems has been developed, a systematic approach to the reduction of gearbox vibration has been lacking. The technique of reducing vibration by shifting natural frequencies is proposed here for gearboxes and other thin-plate structures using the theories of finite elements, modal analysis, and optimization. A triangular shell element with 18 degrees of freedom is developed for structural and dynamic analysis. To optimize, the overall vibration energy is adopted as the objective function to be minimized at the excitation frequency by varying the design variable (element thickness) under the constraint of overall constant weight. Modal analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the vibration energy as a function of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The optimum design is found by the gradient projection method and a unidimensional search procedure. By applying the computer code to design problems for beams and plates, it was verified that the proposed method is effective in reducing vibration energy. The computer code is also applied to redesign the NASA Lewis gear noise rig test gearbox housing. As one example, only the shape of the top plate is varied, and the vibration energy levels of all the surfaces are reduced, yielding an overall reduction of 1/5 compared to the initial design. As a second example, the shapes of the top and two side plates are varied to yield an overall reduction in vibration energy of 1/30.

Inoue, Katsumi↗

NASA NTRS2012

Rotordynamic Feasibility of a Conceptual Variable-Speed Power Turbine Propulsion System for Large Civil Tilt-Rotor Applications

A variable-speed power turbine concept is analyzed for rotordynamic feasibility in a Large Civil Tilt-Rotor (LCTR) class engine. Implementation of a variable-speed power turbine in a rotorcraft engine would enable high efficiency propulsion at the high forward velocities anticipated of large tilt-rotor vehicles. Therefore, rotordynamics is a critical issue for this engine concept. A preliminary feasibility study is presented herein to address this concern and identify if variable-speed is possible in a conceptual engine sized for the LCTR. The analysis considers critical speed placement in the operating speed envelope, stability analysis up to the maximum anticipated operating speed, and potential unbalance response amplitudes to determine that a variable-speed power turbine is likely to be challenging, but not impossible to achieve in a tilt-rotor propulsion engine.

Howard, Samuel↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Generalized Eulerian-Lagrangian Analysis, with Application to Liquid Flows with Vapor Bubbles

Under a NASA MSFC SBIR Phase 2 effort an analysis has been developed for liquid flows with vapor bubbles such as those in liquid rocket engine components. The analysis is based on a combined Eulerian-Lagrangian technique, in which Eulerian conservation equations are solved for the liquid phase, while Lagrangian equations of motion are integrated in computational coordinates for the vapor phase. The novel aspect of the Lagrangian analysis developed under this effort is that it combines features of the so-called particle distribution approach with those of the so-called particle trajectory approach and can, in fact, be considered as a generalization of both of those traditional methods. The result of this generalization is a reduction in CPU time and memory requirements. Particle time step (stability) limitations have been eliminated by semi-implicit integration of the particle equations of motion (and, for certain applications, the particle temperature equation), although practical limitations remain in effect for reasons of accuracy. The analysis has been applied to the simulation of cavitating flow through a single-bladed section of a labyrinth seal. Models for the simulation of bubble formation and growth have been included, as well as models for bubble drag and heat transfer. The results indicate that bubble formation is more or less 'explosive'. for a given flow field, the number density of bubble nucleation sites is very sensitive to the vapor properties and the surface tension. The bubble motion, on the other hand, is much less sensitive to the properties, but is affected strongly by the local pressure gradients in the flow field. In situations where either the material properties or the flow field are not known with sufficient accuracy, parametric studies can be carried out rapidly to assess the effect of the important variables. Future work will include application of the analysis to cavitation in inducer flow fields.

Dejong, Frederik J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Network Connectivity for Permanent, Transient, Independent, and Correlated Faults

This paper develops a method for the quantitative analysis of network connectivity in the presence of both permanent and transient faults. Even though transient noise is considered a common occurrence in networks, a survey of the literature reveals an emphasis on permanent faults. Transient faults introduce a time element into the analysis of network reliability. With permanent faults it is sufficient to consider the faults that have accumulated by the end of the operating period. With transient faults the arrival and recovery time must be included. The number and location of faults in the system is a dynamic variable. Transient faults also introduce system recovery into the analysis. The goal is the quantitative assessment of network connectivity in the presence of both permanent and transient faults. The approach is to construct a global model that includes all classes of faults: permanent, transient, independent, and correlated. A theorem is derived about this model that give distributions for (1) the number of fault occurrences, (2) the type of fault occurrence, (3) the time of the fault occurrences, and (4) the location of the fault occurrence. These results are applied to compare and contrast the connectivity of different network architectures in the presence of permanent, transient, independent, and correlated faults. The examples below use a Monte Carlo simulation, but the theorem mentioned above could be used to guide fault-injections in a laboratory.

White, Allan L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Do nonlinearities play a significant role in short term, beat-to-beat variability?

Numerous studies of short-term beat-to-beat variability in cardiovascular signals have not resolved the debate about the completeness of linear analysis techniques. This aim of this paper is to evaluate further the role of nonlinearities in short-term, beat-to-beat variability. We compared linear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) and nonlinear neural network (NN) models for predicting instantaneous heart rate (HR) and mean arterial blood pressure (BP) from past HR and BP. To evaluate these models, we used HR and BP time series from the MIMIC database. Experimental results indicate that NN-based nonlinearities do not play a significant role and suggest that ARMA linear analysis techniques provide adequate characterization of the system dynamics responsible for generating short-term, beat-to-beat variability.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS2006

Spectral Variability among Rocks in Visible and Near Infrared Multispectral Pancam Data Collected at Gusev Crater: Examinations using Spectral Mixture Analysis and Related Techniques

Visible and Near Infrared (VNIR) multispectral observations of rocks made by the Mars Exploration Rover Spirit s Panoramic camera (Pancam) have been analysed using a spectral mixture analysis (SMA) methodology. Scenes have been examined from the Gusev crater plains into the Columbia Hills. Most scenes on the plains and in the Columbia Hills could be modeled as three endmember mixtures of a bright material, rock, and shade. Scenes of rocks disturbed by the rover s Rock Abrasion Tool (RAT) required additional endmembers. In the Columbia Hills there were a number of scenes in which additional rock endmembers were required. The SMA methodology identified relatively dust-free areas on undisturbed rock surfaces, as well as spectrally unique areas on RAT abraded rocks. Spectral parameters from these areas were examined and six spectral classes were identified. These classes are named after a type rock or area and are: Adirondack, Lower West Spur, Clovis, Wishstone, Peace, and Watchtower. These classes are discriminable based, primarily, on near-infrared (NIR) spectral parameters. Clovis and Watchtower class rocks appear more oxidized than Wishstone class rocks and Adirondack basalts based on their having higher 535 nm band depths. Comparison of the spectral parameters of these Gusev crater rocks to parameters of glass-dominated basaltic tuffs indicates correspondence between measurements of Clovis and Watchtower classes, but divergence for the Wishstone class rocks which appear to have a higher fraction of crystalline ferrous iron bearing phases. Despite a high sulfur content, the rock Peace has NIR properties resembling plains basalts.

Farrand, W. H.↗