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DOE OSTI2022

Bridging the length scales on mechanical property evaluation (Final Report)

The development of small-scale mechanical testing in combination with microstructural investigation is of great interest to the nuclear materials community for both materials development and monitoring applications. Dramatically reducing the sample sizes to reduce radioactivity and obtaining mechanical properties of irradiated samples is truly intriguing. Moreover, such studies promise a range of benefits including cost reduction, fundamental insight in structure-property relationships, increased statistics on less sample material, and reinvestigation of prior irradiated and tested reactor samples while simultaneously enabling the generation of mechanical test data on ion beam irradiated materials with limited penetration depths. Small scale materials testing on sub-sized samples has been studied for several decades, though it has only been after the development of micro-testing based on Focused Ion Beam (FIB) sample manufacturing in that orders of magnitude smaller samples could really be investigated in a quantitative manner. In recent years, small scale mechanical testing techniques at a number of length scales has been developed for both unirradiated and irradiated (ion and neutron) materials. Technological advances made in this field have enabled ex-situ and in-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) examination, thus leading to more accurate measurements as well as additional mechanistic information. A recent review of the benefits of these techniques show that these techniques are at a stage to tackle multi-scale ranges of materials investigations and can be utilized to obtain fundamental science-based understanding of nuclear materials. Considering the tremendous advances made, one can see how small-scale mechanical testing techniques combined with modeling can enable true small scale to bulk scale mechanical property correlations. However, for the engineering community to adapt this approach fully, one needs to demonstrate that a) that these techniques can produce results with high fidelity and reproducibility, b) generate engineering stress-strain data that one can utilize to understand bulk behavior, and c) generate new insight into relevant phenomena fostering the true understanding of radiation damage and microstructure in materials for nuclear applications. It is the objective of this proposal to bridge the length scale between macro- and micro- scale mechanical testing of unirradiated and irradiated materials. This involves the development and demonstration of procedures for multi-scale mechanical testing that enable high fidelity reproducibility of data and the generation bulk property data from small-scale mechanical tests. Through this, the proposal aims to enhance the confidence in the obtained data at the smaller length scales and enhance the insight provided from these techniques for bulk scale applications on both unirradiated and irradiated materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Diffusion and perfusion MR parameters to assess preoperative short-course radiotherapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer: a comparative explorative study among Standardized Index of Shape by DCE-MRI, intravoxel incoherent motion- and diffusion kurtosis imaging-derived parameters

Purpose: To assess preoperative short-course radiotherapy (SCR) tumor response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) by means of Standardized Index of Shape (SIS) by dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) and diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) parameters derived from diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI). Materials and methods: Thirty-four patients with LARC who underwent MRI scans before and after SCR followed by delayed surgery, retrospectively, were enrolled. SIS, ADC, IVIM parameters [tissue diffusion (D{sub t}), pseudo-diffusion (D{sub p}), perfusion fraction (f{sub p})] and DKI parameters [mean diffusivity (MD), mean of diffusional kurtosis (MK)] were calculated for each patient. IVIM parameters were estimated using two methods, namely conventional biexponential fitting (CBFM) and variable projection (VARPRO). After surgery, the pathological TNM and tumor regression grade (TRG) were estimated. For each parameter, percentage changes between before and after SCR were evaluated. Furthermore, an artificial neural network was trained for outcome prediction. Nonparametric sample tests and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis were performed. Results: Fifteen patients were classified as responders (TRG ≤ 2) and 19 as not responders (TRG > 3). Seven patients had TRG 1 (pathological complete response, pCR). Mean and standard deviation values of pre-treatment CBFM D{sub p} and mean value of VARPRO D{sub p} pre-treatment showed statistically significant differences to predict pCR. (p value at Mann–Whitney test was 0.05, 0.03 and 0.008, respectively.) Exclusively SIS percentage change showed significant differences between responder and non-responder patients after SCR (p value << 0.001) and to assess pCR after SCR (p value << 0.001). The best results to predict pCR were obtained by VARPRO Fp mean value pre-treatment with area under ROC of 0.84, a sensitivity of 96.4%, a specificity of 71.4%, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 92.9%, a negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.3% and an accuracy of 91.2%. The best results to assess after treatment complete pathological response were obtained by SIS with an area under ROC of 0.89, a sensitivity of 85.7%, a specificity of 92.6%, a PPV of 75.0%, a NPV of 96.1% and an accuracy of 91.2%. Moreover, the best results to differentiate after treatment responders vs. non-responders were obtained by SIS with an area under ROC of 0.94, a sensitivity of 93.3%, a specificity of 84.2%, a PPV of 82.4%, a NPV of 94.1% and an accuracy of 88.2%. Promising initial results were obtained using a decision tree tested with all ADC, IVIM and DKI extracted parameter: we reached high accuracy to assess pathological complete response after SCR in LARC (an accuracy of 85.3% to assess pathological complete response after SCR using VARPRO D{sub p} mean value post-treatment, ADC standard deviation value pre-treatment, MD standard deviation value post-treatment). Conclusion: SIS is a hopeful DCE-MRI angiogenic biomarker to assess preoperative treatment response after SCR with delayed surgery. Furthermore, an important prognostic role was obtained by VARPRO F{sub p} mean value pre-treatment and by a decision tree composed by diffusion parameters derived by DWI and DKI to assess pathological complete response.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode- limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode-limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

NASA NTRS1990

Parallel line analysis: multifunctional software for the biomedical sciences

An easy to use, interactive FORTRAN program for analyzing the results of parallel line assays is described. The program is menu driven and consists of five major components: data entry, data editing, manual analysis, manual plotting, and automatic analysis and plotting. Data can be entered from the terminal or from previously created data files. The data editing portion of the program is used to inspect and modify data and to statistically identify outliers. The manual analysis component is used to test the assumptions necessary for parallel line assays using analysis of covariance techniques and to determine potency ratios with confidence limits. The manual plotting component provides a graphic display of the data on the terminal screen or on a standard line printer. The automatic portion runs through multiple analyses without operator input. Data may be saved in a special file to expedite input at a future time.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Reliability Model for Ni-BaTiO3-Based (BME) Ceramic Capacitors

The evaluation of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) with base-metal electrodes (BMEs) for potential NASA space project applications requires an in-depth understanding of their reliability. The reliability of an MLCC is defined as the ability of the dielectric material to retain its insulating properties under stated environmental and operational conditions for a specified period of time t. In this presentation, a general mathematic expression of a reliability model for a BME MLCC is developed and discussed. The reliability model consists of three parts: (1) a statistical distribution that describes the individual variation of properties in a test group of samples (Weibull, log normal, normal, etc.), (2) an acceleration function that describes how a capacitors reliability responds to external stresses such as applied voltage and temperature (All units in the test group should follow the same acceleration function if they share the same failure mode, independent of individual units), and (3) the effect and contribution of the structural and constructional characteristics of a multilayer capacitor device, such as the number of dielectric layers N, dielectric thickness d, average grain size r, and capacitor chip size S. In general, a two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution model is used in the description of a BME capacitors reliability as a function of time. The acceleration function that relates a capacitors reliability to external stresses is dependent on the failure mode. Two failure modes have been identified in BME MLCCs: catastrophic and slow degradation. A catastrophic failure is characterized by a time-accelerating increase in leakage current that is mainly due to existing processing defects (voids, cracks, delamination, etc.), or the extrinsic defects. A slow degradation failure is characterized by a near-linear increase in leakage current against the stress time; this is caused by the electromigration of oxygen vacancies (intrinsic defects). The two identified failure modes follow different acceleration functions. Catastrophic failures follow the traditional power-law relationship to the applied voltage. Slow degradation failures fit well to an exponential law relationship to the applied electrical field. Finally, the impact of capacitor structure on the reliability of BME capacitors is discussed with respect to the number of dielectric layers in an MLCC unit, the number of BaTiO3 grains per dielectric layer, and the chip size of the capacitor device.

reliability↗

NASA NTRS1993

Testing the frozen flow approximation

We investigate the accuracy of the frozen-flow approximation (FFA), recently proposed by Matarrese, et al. (1992), for following the nonlinear evolution of cosmological density fluctuations under gravitational instability. We compare a number of statistics between results of the FFA and n-body simulations, including those used by Melott, Pellman & Shandarin (1993) to test the Zel'dovich approximation. The FFA performs reasonably well in a statistical sense, e.g. in reproducing the counts-in-cell distribution, at small scales, but it does poorly in the crosscorrelation with n-body which means it is generally not moving mass to the right place, especially in models with high small-scale power.

Lucchin, Francesco↗

NASA NTRS1980

Proof test and fatigue of unnotched composite laminates

A comprehensive fatigue and residual strength degradation model has been used to predict the effect of proof loads (or high load) on the statistical fatigue behavior of composite laminates. The validity of the theoretical model is confirmed by the experimental test results. The correlation between the test results and the theoretical distributions of the fatigue life and the residual strength for composite specimens with or without the effect of proof loads is shown to be very good.

Yang, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Development and status of data quality assurance program at NASA Langley research center: Toward national standards

As part of a continuing effort to re-engineer the wind tunnel testing process, a comprehensive data quality assurance program is being established at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). The ultimate goal of the program is routing provision of tunnel-to-tunnel reproducibility with total uncertainty levels acceptable for test and evaluation of civilian transports. The operational elements for reaching such levels of reproducibility are: (1) statistical control, which provides long term measurement uncertainty predictability and a base for continuous improvement, (2) measurement uncertainty prediction, which provides test designs that can meet data quality expectations with the system's predictable variation, and (3) national standards, which provide a means for resolving tunnel-to-tunnel differences. The paper presents the LaRC design for the program and discusses the process of implementation.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Zero-Net-Rate Pumping Tests

Accurately estimating the distribution of aquifer properties is key to understanding contaminant movement in the subsurface. The distribution of aquifer properties is typically addressed using slug or constant-rate well tests, and the pros and cons of these tests are well known. Slug tests are appealing because they avoid removing contaminated water, but their results are affected by well skin and the small volume of displaced water limits the volume of aquifer that can be evaluated. Constant-rate well tests have the disadvantage of requiring disposal of potentially contaminated water, but they can generate properties that are more representative than slug tests, and they can be used to estimate well efficiency and storativity, which are difficult to characterize using slug tests. Periodic pumping tests are appealing because they have many of the advantages and few of the disadvantages of slug and constant-rate well tests. Periodic pumping tests involve cycling the pumping rate with a regular period and measuring the resulting response in monitoring wells. Some of these tests involve imposing a periodic rate on a constant mean rate. However, other tests involve moving water out and back into the well at rates that are balanced so the net rate after each period is zero. Some zero-net-rate (ZNR) well tests use rates that follow a sinusoidal pattern, whereas others use a square wave pattern that switches between a constant rate of pumping and a constant rate of injection to achieve a zero-net rate. ZNR well tests appear to be a useful compromise between slug and constant rate tests, but methods for conducting and analyzing the results from these tests have received limited evaluation. Periodic pumping tests are typically evaluated through recorded pressure responses to a disturbance source. Recent work has demonstrated that the strain field in the vadose zone shows a response to disturbances in the underlying aquifer. Various instrument designs are available that can record vertical and horizontal strain to very precise resolutions (10-9 ε). Measuring the strain in the vadose zone can present lower costs than measuring pressure in a monitoring well, so using strain could improve the resolution of ZNR tests, as well as make these tests potentially cheaper. A ZNR periodic pumping system was constructed and used to perform tests in the Clemson, South Carolina area. The system was designed to pump and inject with a periodic square-wave, so pumping occurs at a constant rate for half the period and is followed by injection at the same rate for half the period resulting in no net gain or loss of water from the aquifer. The system is designed to generate flow rates from 1 to 3.5 gallons per minute (gpm) with a capacity of 875-gallon per half period. Pressure and strain monitoring points are located in the vicinity of the pumping well. A series of 10 ZNR periodic pumping tests were conducted at the field site, with periods ranging from 2 to 540 minutes. Pressure data were collected and recorded in four monitoring wells in various locations around the pumping well. In addition, vertical and horizontal strain and tilt data were recorded in various locations around the pumping well. Traditional aquifer tests, including slug tests and constant-rate pumping tests were conducted at the field site to provide a baseline of aquifer parameter estimates that are compared the results of ZNR tests. Pressure data measured at monitoring wells during ZNR tests were analyzed utilizing an analytical solution (Streltsova, 1988) that assumes a confined aquifer and estimates hydraulic diffusivity and transmissivity using the time lag and amplitude of the pressure signal. The storativity can be separated out from the hydraulic diffusivity using the transmissivity estimate. The time-lag and amplitude of the pressure signals were estimated using a Fourier transform. The time-lag of the primary period of the pressure increases as a linear function of distance from the pumping well, and it increases as the square root of the period of the ZNR test over a range of periods spanning two orders of magnitudes. The first few harmonics follow similar trends, but the higher frequency harmonics diverge from this trend. Strain and tilt data from various instruments in the vadose and saturated zones are periodic during ZNR tests. The time lags of the strain components increase roughly linearly with distance from the well. Many of the time lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the time lags observed in the pressure data from a similar distance and pumping period. Theoretical experiments were performed to understand how pressure and strain responds to ZNR periodic pumping. The time-lags of the simulated pressure responses match the field data trends. The results were used to validate the Streltsova (1988) solution for periodic pumping to estimate hydraulic diffusivity. Hydraulic diffusivity was estimated to be 1.8 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 9.0 x 10-2 m2s-1 using pressure data from all the wells during ZNR tests. Transmissivity was estimated to be 0.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 4.3 x 10-4 m2s-1. Assuming Storativity = T/Dh gives 1.1 x 10-3 < S < 19 x10-3. Transmissivity is used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity, K, by dividing by the assumed aquifer thickness. Two constant-rate pumping tests were conducted and analyzed using two conceptual models: The Hantush (1961) solution was used to analyze data assuming confined conditions and the Neuman (1974) solution was used to analyze data assuming unconfined conditions. The Hantush (1961) solution estimated transmissivity to be 1.6 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 1.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 when using data from all the wells. Storativity was estimated to be 4.4 x 10-3 < S < 8.2 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.22 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 3.6 x 10-2 m2s-1. The Neuman (1974) solution estimated transmissivity to be 0.80 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 0.84 x 10-4 m2s-1. Total storativity (S + Sy) was estimated to be 22 x 10-3 < S < 110 x 10-3. Storativity excluding the Sy term was estimated to be 2.2 x 10-3 < S < 2.5 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.073 x 10-2 m2s-1 < S < 0.36 x 10-2 m2s-1. Two slug tests were performed on the pumping well, PW-2. The Bouwer and Rice (1976) solution for slug tests was used to analyze the data. This solution works for both confined and unconfined conditions, so both conceptual models were covered through the analysis. Hydraulic conductivity was estimated to be 1.95 x 10-6 ms-1 < K < 2.49 x 10-6 ms-1. Statistical comparison show generally no significant difference in the estimates of Dh, K, or S made using ZNR and conventional pumping tests.. However, the total storage estimated by the Neuman (1974) solution for unconfined settings is larger than that estimate using the Streltsove analysis applied to the ZNR tests. This is likely because the Neuman solution considers delayed yield from storage that the water table, whereas the Streltsova (1988) solution assumes confined conditions. The analysis also indicates that there is a statistically significant difference between parameters estimated with conventional slug tests and those measured with either constant-rate pumping tests or ZNR tests. Hydraulic diffusivity is estimated from the time-lag and the distance from the well. The time-lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the lags of the pressure data from a similar distance. This indicates that hydraulic diffusivities estimated from the strain data measured in the vadose zone would be similar to the estimates from the pressure data measured in the aquifer. There appear to be sign reversals in some of the strain data that were corrected to estimate the time lag. The dissolved oxygen (CO) concentration was measured during several ZNR tests to evaluate the feasibility of using the procedure to increase contaminant degradation kinetics that are related to DO. The results indicate that DO can be increased during the cycling of ZNR tests in some cases.

Smith-Jones, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2018

M&V Tool Testing Portal v1

Software is an online self-service portal for testing M&V methods/tools using buildings' interval meter data. After registering as a user in the portal, that user can download test data files, run those test data files through their own M&V software, and then upload software modeling results to the online portal as a csv file. After the user has uploaded their modeling results the portal will develop statistical accuracy metrics for that M&V tool. The online portal will summarize test results for some or all of the submitted tests. This online portal has been developed by LBNL, and we have been collaborating with the Efficiency Valuation Organization (EVO) with the objective of EVO managing the portal as an ongoing service. Portal is currently posted at http://mvportal.evo-world.org/

Cholia, Shreyas↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Standardized Analysis Process Using Digital Image Correlation to Calculate In Situ Cladding Strain from Modified Burst Tests for Fuel Performance Code Validation

Historical data collection on nuclear fuel cladding materials has focused on generating a statistically significant amount of data to assess the material and its failure behavior. Furthermore, data generated to support material model and failure criteria development were previously posttest evaluations, so a large number of tests was required to gain new understanding. A way to expedite this process is to develop techniques capable of generating large, high-fidelity data sets from a single test with lower uncertainty or quantified uncertainty. One such example of this approach is Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s use of modified burst tests (MBTs) to analyze the mechanical behavior and failure conditions of cladding during a simulated reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). Each test incorporates digital image correlation (DIC) analysis techniques that are used to assess the accumulated strain in situ, as well as eventual cladding failure. This work has been fruitful in defining strain-to-failure conditions for materials like silicon carbide (SiC) fiber–reinforced/SiC matrix composite tubes (SiC/SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy tubes, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. However, there are numerous DIC software available, including open-source and proprietary software. The different DIC software use various algorithms to process images and calculate displacement values. Using these different software and algorithms can lead to varying results, and perhaps larger-than-expected uncertainties. In the present study, previously published MBT data encompassing a variety of test conditions were reanalyzed with two different DIC software to assess the variance in the calculated strain results. The data consisted of SiC/SiC, FeCrAl, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. Plots of the calculated strains during the transient revealed good agreement between the two DIC software. The average root-mean-square errors between the two software was 0.20% strain, which is slightly larger than a previously reported error value for these tests. In conclusion, this variance in results is low enough that this analysis method can be used for code validation.

Reactivity-initiated accident↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Fourth AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

A graphical framework is used for statistical analysis of the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics codes. The solutions were obtained by code developers and users from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia using a variety of grid systems and turbulence models for the June 2009 4th Drag Prediction Workshop sponsored by the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee. The aerodynamic configuration for this workshop was a new subsonic transport model, the Common Research Model, designed using a modern approach for the wing and included a horizontal tail. The fourth workshop focused on the prediction of both absolute and incremental drag levels for wing-body and wing-body-horizontal tail configurations. This work continues the statistical analysis begun in the earlier workshops and compares the results from the grid convergence study of the most recent workshop with earlier workshops using the statistical framework.

Statistical analysis↗

NASA NTRS1985

Flow dynamic environment data base development for the SSME

The fluid flow-induced vibration of the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) components are being studied with a view to correlating the frequency characteristics of the pressure fluctuations in a rocket engine to its operating conditions and geometry. An overview of the data base development for SSME test firing results and the interactive computer software used to access, retrieve, and plot or print the results selectively for given thrust levels, engine numbers, etc., is presented. The various statistical methods available in the computer code for data analysis are discussed. Plots of test data, nondimensionalized using parameters such as fluid flow velocities, densities, and pressures, are presented. Results are compared with those available in the literature. Correlations between the resonant peaks observed at higher frequencies in power spectral density plots with pump geometry and operating conditions are discussed. An overview of the status of the investigation is presented and future directions are discussed.

Sundaram, C. V.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Federal Emergency Management Agency Mobile Housing Unit Running Gear Testing (Final Report)

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) stages manufactured housing units (MHUs) at key locations to be used during disasters when other housing accommodations cannot be arranged for individuals or families. Due to the unpredictability of natural disasters and the limitations of the manufactured housing industry to produce large numbers of MHUs in very short periods of time, it is necessary for FEMA to store a large number of units for many months or years. With these long storage periods come degradation issues with frames, tires, bearing, and braking systems. These types of issues are also of interest to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) because regulated carriers normally transport these units and 49 CFR 393.75 Tires specifies tire loading restrictions for manufactured homes. To compare the running gear (tires, brakes, drums, bearings, axles, springs, and spring mounting hardware) currently specified in the 2014 Rugged Based Performance Requirements (RBPR) and the newly recommended running gear specified in the upcoming revision to the RBPR, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) outlined a Longevity Test Plan, which focused on the assessment of component longevity (failure rates by component type). The Test Plan also studied the forces imparted to the MHU from the running gear from interaction with the roadway for both the running gear in the 2014 RBPR and the running gear specified in the upcoming RBPR revision. Since the assessment of component longevity and failures are also issues of concern for FMCSA, both agencies collaborated to support the research presented in this report. The tests and data collection were conducted at the Navistar Proving Grounds (NPG) in New Carlisle (near South Bend), Indiana, during the May-November 2018 period. Four alternatives for the suspension system of a typical three-bedroom MHU were considered in this test. Alternative 0 was the MHU that was selected from the FEMA staging area in Selma, Alabama. Empirical data had shown that, on average, this alternative experiences one tire failure every 150 miles (or 0.0067 tire failures per mile traveled). Before testing, Alternative 0 was equipped with similar running gear hardware, although in new condition and installed following the manufacturer’s specifications. This became the Baseline Unit, or Alternative 1. Another unit, also selected from the FEMA staging area in Selma, Alabama, was equipped with better axles (i.e., axles that were rated for 7,000lbs as opposed to 6,000lbs for the Baseline Unit) and better tires. This became the Upgrade Unit, or Alternative 2. At the end of the Longevity Test, the Upgrade Unit was mounted with radial tires. This became Alternative 3.Alternative 1 (Baseline Unit) had, on average, one tire failure every 251 miles (or 0.0040 tire failures per mile traveled). So, by simply following the correct manufacturer’s specifications for the assembly of the transportation system, a reduction of 41% in the per mile tire failure was achieved. In the same test, Alternative 2 (Upgrade Unit) showed, on average, one tire failure every 728 miles traveled (or 0.0014 tire failure s per mile traveled). When the Upgrade Unit was mounted with radial tires in the last part of the test, no tire failures were observed for the 2,400 miles tested. That is, in the case of the radial tires (Alternative 3) the tire failure was less than one per 2,400 miles traveled (or less than 0.0004 tire failures per mile traveled). The data collected for the Longevity Test showed that the maximum accelerations were registered in all cases at the center of the MHU in the vertical direction. The overall maximum was registered by the Baseline Unit, Alternative 1. If that value is normalized to 100%, then the Upgrade Unit (Alternative 2) showed, on average, 81% at the same location, and Alternative 3 (radial-tire test) 59%. That is, the upgraded transportation system showed a reduction of 19% and 41% in the vertical accelerations transmitted to MHU at its center when regular and radial tires, respectively, were used. As part of the Test Protocol, NPG conducted a visual inspection of the MHUs and transportation system at the end of each test day. ORNL reviewed all the inspection reports in an attempt to determine if there was any difference in the damage that the Baseline and Upgrade MHUs showed during the test. The Upgrade Unit always showed lower accelerations transmitted to the MHU than the Baseline Unit. In most cases, these differences were statistically significant. The FEMA inspection report, conducted by a FEMA certified inspector at the end of the tests, included a shorter list of damaged items for the Baseline Unit than for the Upgrade Unit, although similar type of damages was described for both units. This may be an indication that, although lower than those of the Baseline Unit, the accelerations transmitted by the Upgrade Unit were above the threshold at which MHU elements start to fail.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Yarkovsky Drift Detections for 247 Near-Earth Asteroids

The Yarkovsky effect is a thermal process acting upon the orbits of small celestial bodies, which can cause these orbits to slowly expand or contract with time. The effect is subtle (〈da/dt〉∼10{sup −4} au My{sup −1} for a 1 km diameter object) and is thus generally difficult to measure. We analyzed both optical and radar astrometry for 600 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) for the purpose of detecting and quantifying the Yarkovsky effect. We present 247 NEAs with measured drift rates, which is the largest published set of Yarkovsky detections. This large sample size provides an opportunity to examine the Yarkovsky effect in a statistical manner. In particular, we describe two independent population-based tests that verify the measurement of Yarkovsky orbital drift. First, we provide observational confirmation for the Yarkovsky effect’s theoretical size dependence of 1/D, where D is diameter. Second, we find that the observed ratio of negative to positive drift rates in our sample is 2.34, which, accounting for bias and sampling uncertainty, implies an actual ratio of 2.7{sub −0.7}{sup +0.3}. This ratio has a vanishingly small probability of occurring due to chance or statistical noise. The observed ratio of retrograde to prograde rotators is two times lower than the ratio expected from numerical predictions from NEA population studies and traditional assumptions about the sense of rotation of NEAs originating from various main belt escape routes. We also examine the efficiency with which solar energy is converted into orbital energy and find a median efficiency in our sample of 12%. We interpret this efficiency in terms of NEA spin and thermal properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian approach to model-based extrapolation of nuclear observables

Here, we considered 10 global models based on nuclear density functional theory with realistic energy density functionals as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of two-neutron separation energy residuals and Bayesian confidence intervals defining theoretical error bars were constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. By establishing statistical methodology and parameters, we carried out extrapolations toward the two-neutron dripline. While both Gaussian processes (GP) and Bayesian neural networks reduce the root-mean-square (rms) deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power of microscopic models aided by the statistical treatment is quite astonishing: The resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models and also make quantified predictions using groups of models. The proposed robust statistical approach to extrapolation of nuclear model results can be useful for assessing the impact of current and future experiments in the context of model developments. The new Bayesian capability to evaluate residuals is also expected to impact research in the domains where experiments are currently impossible, for instance, in simulations of the astrophysical r process.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗