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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Results of the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)

Abstract Next-generation surveys like the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (Rubin) will generate orders of magnitude more discoveries of transients and variable stars than previous surveys. To prepare for this data deluge, we developed the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a competition that aimed to catalyze the development of robust classifiers under LSST-like conditions of a nonrepresentative training set for a large photometric test set of imbalanced classes. Over 1000 teams participated in PLAsTiCC, which was hosted in the Kaggle data science competition platform between 2018 September 28 and 2018 December 17, ultimately identifying three winners in 2019 February. Participants produced classifiers employing a diverse set of machine-learning techniques including hybrid combinations and ensemble averages of a range of approaches, among them boosted decision trees, neural networks, and multilayer perceptrons. The strong performance of the top three classifiers on Type Ia supernovae and kilonovae represent a major improvement over the current state of the art within astronomy. This paper summarizes the most promising methods and evaluates their results in detail, highlighting future directions both for classifier development and simulation needs for a next-generation PLAsTiCC data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Synchrotron X-ray microtomography and multifractal analysis for the characterization of pore structure and distribution in softwood pellet biochar

Biochar pores in the micrometer range (1–100 µm) derive from cellular structures of the plant biomass subjected to pyrolysis or can be the result of mechanical processing, such as pelleting. In this study, synchrotron X-ray microtomography was used to investigate the internal pore structure of softwood pellet biochar produced by slow pyrolysis at 550 and 700 °C. The microtomographic data sets consisted of 2025 images of 2560 × 2560 voxels with a voxel side length of 0.87 µm. The three-dimensional reconstructions revealed that pelleting and pyrolysis significantly altered the pore structures of the wood feedstock, creating a network of connected pores between fragments that resembled the wood morphology. While higher pyrolysis temperature increased the specific surface area (as determined by BET nitrogen adsorption), it did not affect the total observed porosity. Multifractal analysis was applied to assess the characteristics of the frequency distribution of pores along each of the three dimensions of reconstructed images of five softwood pellet biochar samples. The resulting singularity and Rényi spectra (generalized dimensions) indicated that the distribution of porosity had monofractal scaling behavior, was homogeneous within the analyzed volumes and consistent between replicate samples. Moreover, the pore distributions were isotropic (direction-independent), which is in strong contrast with the anisotropic pore structure of wood. As pores at the scale analyzed in this study are relevant, for example, for the supply of plant accessible water and habitable space for microorganisms, our findings combined with the ability to reproduce biochar with such pore distribution offer substantial advantages in various biochar applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient surrogate model of secondary electron formation and evolution

This work extends the adjoint-deep learning framework for runaway electron (RE) evolution, developed by McDevitt et al. [Phys. Plasmas 32, 042503 (2025)], to account for large-angle collisions. By incorporating large-angle collisions, the framework allows the avalanche of REs to be captured, an essential component of RE dynamics. This extension is accomplished by using a Rosenbluth–Putvinski approximation to estimate the distribution of secondary electrons generated by large-angle collisions. By evolving both the primary and multiple generations of secondary electrons, the present formulation can capture both the detailed temporal evolution of a RE population beginning from an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution, along with providing approximations to the saturated growth and decay rates of the RE population. Predictions of the adjoint-deep learning framework are verified against a traditional RE solver, with good agreement present across a broad range of parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient simulation of moiré materials using the density matrix renormalization group

Here we present an infinite density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) study of an interacting continuum model of twisted bilayer graphene (tBLG) near the magic angle. Because of the long-range Coulomb interaction and the large number of orbital degrees of freedom, tBLG is difficult to study with standard DMRG techniques - even constructing and storing the Hamiltonian already poses a major challenge. To overcome these difficulties, we use a recently developed compression procedure to obtain a matrix product operator representation of the interacting tBLG Hamiltonian which we show is both efficient and accurate even when including the spin, valley, and orbital degrees of freedom. To benchmark our approach, we focus mainly on the spinless, single-valley version of the problem where, at half filling, we find that the ground state is a nematic semimetal. Remarkably, we find that the ground state is essentially a k-space Slater determinant, so that Hartree-Fock and DMRG give virtually identical results for this problem. Our results show that the effects of long-range interactions in magic angle graphene can be efficiently simulated with DMRG and open up a new route for numerically studying strong correlation physics in spinful, two-valley tBLG, and other moiré materials in future work.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gravitational wave spectrum of chain inflation

Chain inflation is an alternative to slow-roll inflation in which the inflaton tunnels along a large number of consecutive minima in its potential. In this work we perform the first comprehensive calculation of the gravitational wave (GW) spectrum of chain inflation. In contrast to slow-roll inflation the latter does not stem from quantum fluctuations of the gravitational field during inflation, but rather from the bubble collisions during the first-order phase transitions associated with vacuum tunneling. Our calculation is performed within an effective theory of chain inflation which builds on an expansion of the tunneling rate capturing most of the available model space. The effective theory can be seen as chain inflation’s analog of the slow-roll expansion in rolling models of inflation. The near scale-invariance of the scalar power spectrum translates to a quasiperiodic shape of the inflaton potential in chain inflation, with the tunneling rate changing very slowly during the e-folds leading to cosmic microwave background observables. We show that chain inflation produces a very characteristic double-peak GW spectrum: a faint high-frequency peak associated with the gravitational radiation emitted during inflation, and a strong low-frequency peak associated with the graceful exit from chain inflation (marking the transition to the radiation-dominated epoch). There exist very exciting prospects to test the gravitational wave signal from chain inflation at the aLIGO-aVIRGO-KAGRA network, at LISA and /or at pulsar timing array experiments. A particularly intriguing possibility we point out is that chain inflation could be the source of the stochastic gravitational wave background recently detected by NANOGrav, PPTA, EPTA, and CPTA. We also show that the gravitational wave signal of chain inflation is often accompanied by running/ higher running of the scalar spectral index to be tested at future cosmic microwave background experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Freese, Katherine↗
DOE OSTI2021

DSGAN

This study develops a neural network-based approach for emulating high-resolution modeled precipitation data with comparable statistical properties but at greatly reduced computational cost. The key idea is to use combination of low-and high- resolution simulations to train a neural network to map from the former to the latter. Specifically, we define two types of CNNs, one that stacks variables directly and one that encodes each variable before stacking, and we train each CNN type both with a conventional loss function, such as mean square error (MSE), and with a conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN), for a total of four CNN variants. We compare the four new CNN-derived high-resolution precipitation results with precipitation generated from original high resolution simulations, a bilinear interpolater and the state-of-the-art CNN-based super-resolution (SR) technique. Results show that the SR technique produces results similar to those of the bilinear interpolator with smoother spatial and temporal distributions and smaller data variabilities and extremes than the original high resolution simulations. While the new CNNs trained by MSE generate better results over some regions than the interpolator and SR technique do, their predictions are still not as close as the original high resolution simulations. The CNNs trained by CGAN generate more realistic and physically reasonable results, better capturing not only data variability in time and space but also extremes such as intense and long-lasting storms. The new proposed CNN-based downscaling approach can downscale precipitation from 50~km to 12~km in 14~min for 30~years

LIU, ZHENGCHUN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coarse-Grained Density Functional Theory Predictions via Deep Kernel Learning

Scalable electronic predictions are critical for soft materials design. Recently, the Electronic Coarse-Graining (ECG) method was introduced to renormalize all-atom quantum chemical (QC) predictions to coarse-grained (CG) resolutions using deep neural networks (DNNs). While DNNs can learn complex representations that prove challenging for kernel-based methods, they are susceptible to overfitting and the overconfidence of uncertainty estimations. Here, we develop ECG within a GPU-accelerated Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) framework to enable CG QC predictions using range-separated hybrid density functional theory (DFT), obtaining a 107 speedup relative to naive all-atom QC. By treating the predicted electronic properties as random Gaussian Processes, DKL incorporates CG mapping degeneracy by learning the distribution of electronic energies as a function of CG configuration. DKL-ECG accurately reproduces molecular orbital energies from range-separated DFT while facilitating efficient training via active learning using the uncertainties provided by DKL. Further, we show that while active learning algorithms enable efficient sampling of a more diverse configurational space relative to random sampling, all explored query methods exhibit comparable performance for the examined system. We attribute this result to the significant overlap of the feature space and output property distributions across multiple temperatures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Hybrid Gradient Method to Designing Bayesian Experiments for Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g.,having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound [1]. However, the approach in [1] requires a pathwise sampling path to compute the gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise sampling path is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this work, we propose a hybrid gradient approach that leverages recent advances in variational MI estimator and evolution strategies (ES)combined with black-box stochastic gradient ascent (SGA) to maximize the MI lower bound. This allows the design process to be achieved through a unified scalable procedure for implicit models without sampling path gradients. Several experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the scalability of BED for implicit models in high-dimensional design space.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Dynamic Modeling of Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters

Inverter-based resource (IBR) models are necessary to analyze modern power system stability and create effective control strategies. Modeling IBRs in converter-rich power systems is crucial, yet challenging due to the lack of commercial information on converter topologies and control parameters. This paper proposes novel convolutional neural network (CNN)–based data-driven techniques for modeling IBRs, addressing adaptability and proprietary concerns without requiring internal system physics knowledge. The proposed method is tested using real grid-tied commercial IBR transient data and demonstrates effectiveness and accuracy. Furthermore, the developed modeling approach is integrated and implemented in the open-source power distribution simulation and analysis tool, GridLAB-D, to illustrate the potentiality of dynamic analysis of large-scale power systems with high IBRs.

deep learning, artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Catalytic Resonance Theory: Forecasting the Flow of Programmable Catalytic Loops

Chemical transformations on catalyst surfaces occur through series and parallel reaction pathways. These complex networks and their behavior can be most simply evaluated through a three-species surface reaction loop (A* to B* to C* to A*) that is internal to the overall chemical reaction. Application of an oscillating dynamic catalyst to this reactive loop has been shown to exhibit one of three types of behavior: (1) a positive net flux of molecules about the loop in the clockwise direction, (2) a negative net flux of molecules about the loop in the counterclockwise direction, or (3) negligible flux of molecules about the loop at the limit cycle of reaction. Three-species surface loops were simulated with microkinetic modeling to assess the reaction loop behavior resulting from a catalytic surface oscillating between two or more catalyst surface energy states. Selected input parameters for the simulations spanned an 11-dimensional parameter space using 127 688 different parameter combinations. Their converged limit cycle solutions were analyzed for their loop turnover frequencies, the majority of which were found to be approximately zero. Classification and regression machine learning models were trained to predict the sign and magnitude of the loop turnover frequency and successfully performed above accessible baselines. Notably, the classification models exhibited a baseline weighted F1 score of 0.49, whereas trained models achieved weighted F1 scores of 0.94 and 0.96 when trained on the parameters used to define the simulations and derived rate constants, respectively. The trained models successfully predicted catalytic loop behavior, and interpretation of these models revealed all input parameters to be important for the prediction and performance of each model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Latent map Gaussian processes for mixed variable metamodeling

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitously used in sciences and engineering as metamodels. Standard GPs, however, can only handle numerical or quantitative variables. Here we introduce latent map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that inherit the attractive properties of GPs and are also applicable to mixed data which have both quantitative and qualitative inputs. The core idea behind LMGPs is to learn a continuous, low-dimensional latent space or manifold which encodes all qualitative inputs. To learn this manifold, we first assign a unique prior vector representation to each combination of qualitative inputs. We then use a low-rank linear map to project these priors on a manifold that characterizes the posterior representations. As the posteriors are quantitative, they can be directly used in any standard correlation function such as the Gaussian or Matern. Hence, the optimal map and the corresponding manifold, along with other hyperparameters of the correlation function, can be systematically learned via maximum likelihood estimation. Through a wide range of analytic and real-world examples, we demonstrate the advantages of LMGPs over state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy and versatility. In particular, we show that LMGPs can handle variable-length inputs, have an explainable neural network interpretation, and provide insights into how qualitative inputs affect the response or interact with each other. We also employ LMGPs in Bayesian optimization and illustrate that they can discover optimal compound compositions more efficiently than conventional methods that convert compositions to qualitative variables via manual featurization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extracting the Subhalo Mass Function from Strong Lens Images with Image Segmentation

Abstract Detecting substructure within strongly lensed images is a promising route to shed light on the nature of dark matter. However, it is a challenging task, which traditionally requires detailed lens modeling and source reconstruction, taking weeks to analyze each system. We use machine learning to circumvent the need for lens and source modeling and develop a neural network to both locate subhalos in an image as well as determine their mass using the technique of image segmentation. The network is trained on images with a single subhalo located near the Einstein ring across a wide range of apparent source magnitudes. The network is then able to resolve subhalos with masses m ≳ 10 8.5 M ⊙ . Training in this way allows the network to learn the gravitational lensing of light, and, remarkably, it is then able to detect entire populations of substructure, even for locations further away from the Einstein ring than those used in training. Over a wide range of the apparent source magnitude, the false-positive rate is around three false subhalos per 100 images, coming mostly from the lightest detectable subhalo for that signal-to-noise ratio. With good accuracy and a low false-positive rate, counting the number of pixels assigned to each subhalo class over multiple images allows for a measurement of the subhalo mass function (SMF). When measured over three mass bins from 10 9 –10 10 M ⊙ the SMF slope is recovered with an error of 36% for 50 images, and this improves to 10% for 1000 images with Hubble Space Telescope-like noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elucidating interprotein energy transfer dynamics within the antenna network from purple bacteria

In photosynthesis, absorbed light energy transfers through a network of antenna proteins with near-unity quantum efficiency to reach the reaction center, which initiates the downstream biochemical reactions. While the energy transfer dynamics within individual antenna proteins have been extensively studied over the past decades, the dynamics between the proteins are poorly understood due to the heterogeneous organization of the network. Previously reported timescales averaged over such heterogeneity, obscuring individual interprotein energy transfer steps. Here, we isolated and interrogated interprotein energy transfer by embedding two variants of the primary antenna protein from purple bacteria, light-harvesting complex 2 (LH2), together into a near-native membrane disc, known as a nanodisc. We integrated ultrafast transient absorption spectroscopy, quantum dynamics simulations, and cryogenic electron microscopy to determine interprotein energy transfer timescales. By varying the diameter of the nanodiscs, we replicated a range of distances between the proteins. The closest distance possible between neighboring LH2, which is the most common in native membranes, is 25 Å and resulted in a timescale of 5.7 ps. Larger distances of 28 to 31 Å resulted in timescales of 10 to 14 ps. Corresponding simulations showed that the fast energy transfer steps between closely spaced LH2 increase transport distances by ∼15%. Overall, our results introduce a framework for well-controlled studies of interprotein energy transfer dynamics and suggest that protein pairs serve as the primary pathway for the efficient transport of solar energy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CaloChallenge 2022: a community challenge for fast calorimeter simulation

Here, we present the results of the ‘Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge 2022’—the CaloChallenge. We study state-of-the-art generative models on four calorimeter shower datasets of increasing dimensionality, ranging from a few hundred voxels to a few tens of thousand voxels. The 31 individual submissions span a wide range of current popular generative architectures, including variational autoencoders (VAEs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, diffusion models, and models based on conditional flow matching. We compare all submissions in terms of quality of generated calorimeter showers, as well as shower generation time and model size. To assess the quality we use a broad range of different metrics including differences in one-dimensional histograms of observables, KPD/FPD scores, AUCs of binary classifiers, and the log-posterior of a multiclass classifier. The results of the CaloChallenge provide the most complete and comprehensive survey of cutting-edge approaches to calorimeter fast simulation to date. In addition, our work provides a uniquely detailed perspective on the important problem of how to evaluate generative models. As such, the results presented here should be applicable for other domains that use generative AI and require fast and faithful generation of samples in a large phase space.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interactively Assessing Disentanglement in GANs

Abstract Generative adversarial networks (GAN) have witnessed tremendous growth in recent years, demonstrating wide applicability in many domains. However, GANs remain notoriously difficult for people to interpret, particularly for modern GANs capable of generating photo‐realistic imagery. In this work we contribute a visual analytics approach for GAN interpretability, where we focus on the analysis and visualization of GAN disentanglement. Disentanglement is concerned with the ability to control content produced by a GAN along a small number of distinct, yet semantic, factors of variation. The goal of our approach is to shed insight on GAN disentanglement, above and beyond coarse summaries, instead permitting a deeper analysis of the data distribution modeled by a GAN. Our visualization allows one to assess a single factor of variation in terms of groupings and trends in the data distribution, where our analysis seeks to relate the learned representation space of GANs with attribute‐based semantic scoring of images produced by GANs. Through use‐cases, we show that our visualization is effective in assessing disentanglement, allowing one to quickly recognize a factor of variation and its overall quality. In addition, we show how our approach can highlight potential dataset biases learned by GANs.

Jeong, Sangwon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate

Urban areas and the supply networks that support their resource use are inherently multisectoral systems composed of infrastructural, environmental, and socio-institutional components. These systems are vulnerable to accelerating and interacting stresses from climate change, population growth, resource scarcity, and land-use pressure at the same time as they have a major influence on regional and global systems. For instance, a majority of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, food consumption, and economic activity can be attributed to urban areas. Urban areas are highly heterogenous, both across and within cities in terms of their socio-demographic, environmental, and infrastructural characteristics. This heterogeneity shapes how urban systems interact and co-evolve and contributes to different economic, environmental, and health outcomes for communities within urban areas. Urban heterogeneity also generates differential vulnerabilities to stressors and differential capacity for adapting to change. The evolution of urban space is thus critical in shaping how human societies respond to global change as they seek to improve resilience to stressors, support prosperous and equitable communities, and use natural resources in a sustainable manner. Developing fundamental scientific understanding of urban heterogeneity and system interactions across sectors and scales is critical for mapping the resilience, sustainability, and equity implications of alternative future pathways. On July 2021 the MSD Urban Systems Working Group organized this workshop to provide a venue for coordination and identification of shared objectives, research themes, and major knowledge gaps, as well as developing a shared strategy for addressing these gaps. This report summarizes the outcomes of this workshop.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗