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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Road Lidar Dataset for the TxDOT Austin District

This is a road lidar data collection for developing road elevation models and road inundation mapping methodologies, a joint work between ORNL and The University of Texas at Austin. This dataset is generated as part of the flood transportation infrastructure, partly funded by the NOAA CIROH project. ORNL is a project partner for high-performance computing-empowered flood inundation mapping methodology R&D. The dataset is computed using a GPU-accelerated lidar data processing workflow developed at ORNL. The lidar data source is from TxGIO, the state lidar data collection site. The output dataset is in two formats: laz and copc. It is organized by TxDOT's maintenance sections, covering the Austin District. Data size: 3.86 billion road lidar points, 1.67% of the entire lidar data input Projection: EPSG:32614 (WGS84/UTM zone 14N) Website: https://web.corral.tacc.utexas.edu/nfiedata/road3d/austin_district/AustinMaintenanceSections_H_epsg6343_V_epsg5703/ LICENSE FOR USE -- MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER This resource is shared under the Creative Commons Attribution CC BY, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ MAPS AND DATA DISCLAIMER The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described or information contained on this map or associated series of maps. The data and related map graphics are not legal, land survey or engineering documents and are not intended to be used as such. ORNL gives no warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, utility or completeness of this information. The user of these maps and data assumes all responsibility and risk for the use of the maps and data. ORNL disclaims all warranties, representations or endorsements either express or implied, with regard to the information contained in this map product, including, but not limited to, all implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. This preliminary map product is for research and review purposes only. It is not intended to be used for emergency management operational or life safety decisions at the local or regional governmental level or by the general public. Users requiring information regarding hazardous conditions or meteorological conditions for specific geographic areas should consult directly with their city or county emergency management office.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Temperature Anode Recycle Blower for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell, Phase II (Final Report)

Broad commercialization of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) requires anode offgas recycle blowers (ARCB) that are specifically designed for handling the challenging operating conditions presented by the SOFC process gases. Otherwise, they can be susceptible to frequent maintenance, low reliability, and short life. This report presents details of a DOE-funded Phase II effort conducted by Mohawk Innovative Technology, Inc. (MiTi®) for the development and testing of an oil-free, low cost, high-temperature centrifugal ARCB based on compliant foil bearing (CFB) technology for support of a 100 kW solid oxide fuel cell power plant. This Phase II builds on the results of a successful Phase I development project that resulted in the demonstration of a low TRL-6 prototype, shown in Figure 1. This Phase II final report presents design improvements over the Phase I prototype, presents the assembled test ARCBs, and discusses the advantages of this novel technology, particularly its long life and maintenance-free operation, which are derived from the use of CFBs. Also included are preliminary techno-economic analysis considerations for cost-effective deployment of the technology. The specific objectives of this project, as stated in the statement of program objectives (SOPO) were 1) to follow the methodology of design for manufacturing (or manufacturability) and assembly for implementing improvements identified as part of the Phase I effort with the purpose of reducing cost, enabling mass production, and facilitating the commercialization of a revised ARCB design, and 2) to fabricate four complete ARCB units based on the revised design and demonstrating their performance in both a laboratory setting and in an actual SOFC power plant. Execution of this SOPO would be supported by a number of technical tasks resulting in the fabrication and testing of the prototypes. To this end, MiTi continued the teaming relationship started during Phase I of the program with subcontracting partner FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCE), which integrated (under a parallel effort funded by DOE Award DE-FE0026199) a modular 200 kWe SOFC power plant. MiTi and FCE coordinated to ultimately incorporate one of MiTi’s ARCB prototypes into one of the 100 kWe SOFC Modular Power Blocks (MPB) that constitute the core of FCE’s SOFC power plant for in-situ long-duration testing. Additionally, MiTi would explore the scalability and extendibility of the technology to other applications, as well as conduct a basic techno-economic analysis.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Television image compression and small animal remote monitoring

It was shown that a subject can reliably discriminate a difference in video image quality (using a specific commercial product) for image compression levels ranging from 384 kbits per second to 1536 kbits per second. However, their discriminations are significantly influenced by whether or not the TV camera is stable or moving and whether or not the animals are quiescent or active, which is correlated with illumination level (daylight versus night illumination, respectively). The highest video rate used here was 1.54 megabits per second, which is about 18 percent of the so-called normal TV resolution of 8.4MHz. Since this video rate was judged to be acceptable by 27 of the 34 subjects (79 percent), for monitoring the general health and status of small animals within their illuminated (lights on) cages (regardless of whether the camera was stable or moved), it suggests that an immediate Space Station Freedom to ground bandwidth reduction of about 80 percent can be tolerated without a significant loss in general monitoring capability. Another general conclusion is that the present methodology appears to be effective in quantifying visual judgments of video image quality.

Haines, Richard F.↗

Automated instant labeling chemistry workflow for real-time monitoring of monoclonal antibody N -glycosylation

With the transition toward continuous bioprocessing, process analytical technology (PAT) is becoming necessary for rapid and reliable in-process monitoring during biotherapeutics manufacturing. Bioprocess 4.0 is looking to build end-to-end bioprocesses that include PAT-enabled real-time process control. This is especially important for drug product quality attributes that can change during bioprocessing, such as protein N-glycosylation, a critical quality attribute for most monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapeutics. Glycosylation of mAbs is known to influence their efficacy as therapeutics and is regulated for a majority of mAb products on the market today. Currently, there is no method to truly measure N-glycosylation using on-line PAT, hence making it impractical to design upstream process control strategies. We recently described the N-GLYcanyzer workflow: an integrated PAT unit that measures mAb N-glycosylation within 3 hours of automated sampling from a bioreactor. Here, we integrated Agilent's Instant Procainamide (InstantPC) based chemistry workflow into the N-GLYcanyzer PAT unit to allow for nearly 10× faster near real-time analysis of mAb glycoforms. Furthermore, our methodology is explained in detail to allow for replication of the PAT workflow as well as present a case study demonstrating the use of this PAT to autonomously monitor a mammalian cell perfusion process at the bench scale to gain increased knowledge of mAb glycosylation dynamics during continuous biologics manufacturing using Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hydrogen Generation and Industrial Heat Opportunities for Nuclear Plants in the Gulf Coast

The United States (U.S.) nuclear-generation fleet stands as a critical national strategic asset, playing a pivotal role in achieving climate goals. Operating on light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, this fleet provides the largest share of U.S. carbon-free electrical generation, ensuring 24/7 clean-energy stability. With a proven track record of reliability while operating at high-capacity factors, consistently above 90%, the existing nuclear fleet serves as a cornerstone for sustainable energy. The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS), Flexible Plant Operations and Generation pathway addresses U.S. nuclear power plant (NPP) grid integration challenges in the face of evolving energy landscapes. Research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) highlights the potential synergy between high-temperature steam-electrolysis (HTSE) technology and nuclear steam and electricity during periods of high renewable grid penetration. Large-scale nuclear-integrated hydrogen production through HTSE presents significant potential for decarbonizing such energy-intensive sectors as oil refining, petrochemicals, ammonia, and fertilizers. The strategic advantage lies in the nuclear sector’s capability to deliver clean electrical and/or steam output during periods of low demand. Nuclear-produced hydrogen—with its ability to provide high-purity clean H 2 well below the national standard of 1 kg of CO 2 per kg of H 2 —represents a breakthrough methodology. This emphasizes the crucial role NPPs can fill in addressing the increasing need for clean hydrogen, establishing them as essential contributors to decarbonization. This report specifically delves into hydrogen-generation opportunities from the U.S. Gulf Coast region. This study aims to assess NPP capabilities for hydrogen production and to identify practical nearby industrial and pipeline-operator off-takers for nuclear-integrated hydrogen production as well as to present some specific case-study analysis showing the conditions under which nuclear hydrogen production and sale can be profitable. Also considered in this report is preliminary analysis of nuclear-heat opportunities accessible near Waterford NPP via transportation of hypothetical steam pipelines and heat-exchange equipment.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Integration of magnetic bearings in the design of advanced gas turbine engines

Active magnetic bearings provide revolutionary advantages for gas turbine engine rotor support. These advantages include tremendously improved vibration and stability characteristics, reduced power loss, improved reliability, fault-tolerance, and greatly extended bearing service life. The marriage of these advantages with innovative structural network design and advanced materials utilization will permit major increases in thrust to weight performance and structural efficiency for future gas turbine engines. However, obtaining the maximum payoff requires two key ingredients. The first key ingredient is the use of modern magnetic bearing technologies such as innovative digital control techniques, high-density power electronics, high-density magnetic actuators, fault-tolerant system architecture, and electronic (sensorless) position estimation. This paper describes these technologies. The second key ingredient is to go beyond the simple replacement of rolling element bearings with magnetic bearings by incorporating magnetic bearings as an integral part of the overall engine design. This is analogous to the proper approach to designing with composites, whereby the designer tailors the geometry and load carrying function of the structural system or component for the composite instead of simply substituting composites in a design originally intended for metal material. This paper describes methodologies for the design integration of magnetic bearings in gas turbine engines.

Storace, Albert F.↗

On the optimal sizing of power take-off systems for wave energy converters

The power take-off (PTO) system in a wave energy converter (WEC) is the means by which the energy in an ocean wave is converted into useful energy. There has been a general lack of technology convergence in the wave energy industry and PTO design has been largely device-specific with the design process determined by the WEC developer. An optimized PTO design can significantly affect the efficiency, reliability, performance, and overall cost and viability of a device. There remains a need in the marine energy industry for best practices and efficient design processes to be identified as it could greatly benefit developers and researchers in designing an optimal WEC PTO. This research utilizes the open-source Matlab-Simulink based software, WEC-Sim, which was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Eagle, a high-performance computing system, to model and optimize two WECs of different archetypes and then investigates if any trends exist that can be exploited for greater efficiency in optimal PTO design. The results from this research indicate that there may be an optimal sizing for WEC PTOs for both power and PTO force rating and that substantial reductions can be made in the cost of a device without significant loss in the energy produced. Furthermore this optimal sizing may be independent of WEC type and deployment location. With an optimal, or near optimal, approach to WEC PTO sizing demonstrated, a methodology is proposed to address the challenge of nameplate ratings in the wave energy industry.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Probabilistic system identification in the time domain

The objective of system identification is to determine reliable dynamical models of a structure by systematically using its measured excitation and response. It brings together in an integrated fashion, experimental, analytical, and computational techniques in structural dynamics. Areas of application for system identification include the following: (1) Model Evaluation--assessing assumptions (linearity and equivalent viscous damping) and techniques (finite-element modeling) used to construct theoretical models of a structure; (2) Model Improvement--updating of a theoretical model to enable more accurate response predictions for possible future loads on the structure, or for control of the structure; (3) Empirical Modelling--developing empirical relationships (nonlinear models) or empirical parameter values (modal damping) because the present state of the art does not provide theoretical results; and (4) Damage Detection and Assessment--continual or episodic updating of a structural model through vibration monitoring to detect and locate any structural damage. It can be argued that since the construction or modification of models using test data is subject to inherent uncertainties, the above problems should be properly treated within a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Such a methodology is presented which allows the precision of the estimates of the model parameters to be computed. It also leads to a guiding principle in applications. Namely, when selecting a single model from a given class of models, one should take the most probable model in the class based on the experimental data. Practical applications of this principle are given which are based on the utilization of measured seismic motions in large civil structures. Examples include the application of a computer program MODE-ID to identify modal properties directly from seismic excitation and response time histories from a nine-story steel-frame building at JPL and from a freeway overpass bridge.

Beck, James L.↗

Toward Quantum Chemical Free Energy Simulations of Platinum Nanoparticles on Titania Support

Platinum nanoparticles (Pt-NPs) supported on titania surfaces are costly but indispensable heterogeneous catalysts because of their highly effective and selective catalytic properties. Therefore, it is vital to understand their physicochemical processes during catalysis to optimize their use and to further develop better catalysts. However, simulating these dynamic processes is challenging due to the need for a reliable quantum chemical method to describe chemical bond breaking and bond formation during the processes but, at the same time, fast enough to sample a large number of configurations required to compute the corresponding free energy surfaces. Density functional theory (DFT) is often used to explore Pt-NPs; nonetheless, it is usually limited to some minimum-energy reaction pathways on static potential energy surfaces because of its high computational cost. In this work, we report a combination of the density functional tight binding (DFTB) method as a fast but reliable approximation to DFT, the steered molecular dynamics (SMD) technique, and the Jarzynski equality to construct free energy surfaces of the temperature-dependent diffusion and growth of platinum particles on a titania surface. In particular, we present the parametrization for Pt-X (X = Pt, Ti, or O) interactions in the framework of the second-order DFTB method, using a previous parametrization for titania as a basis. The optimized parameter set was used to simulate the surface diffusion of a single platinum atom (Pt 1 ) and the growth of Pt 6 from Pt 5 and Pt 1 on the rutile (110) surface at three different temperatures (T = 400, 600, 800 K). The free energy profile was constructed by using over a hundred SMD trajectories for each process. We found that increasing the temperature has a minimal effect on the formation free energy; nevertheless, it significantly reduces the free energy barrier of Pt atom migration on the TiO 2 surface and the transition state (TS) of its deposition. In a concluding remark, the methodology opens the pathway to quantum chemical free energy simulations of Pt-NPs’ temperature-dependent growth and other transformation processes on the titania support.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.

Hardy, Gordon H.↗

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Optimizing district energy systems under uncertainty: Insights from a case study from Washington D.C., USA

This study investigates solutions for delivering affordable heating and cooling to a brownfield site, focusing on a case study in Washington, DC. Moving towards more diverse and resilient energy systems, we identify the optimal portfolio for a district energy system with diverse energy sources to meet the area’s energy demands. Our methodological approach integrates two detailed models: one calculating building-level energy demand and the other optimizing district energy technology choices based on their demand profiles, accounting for uncertainties in energy prices, policies, and other parameters. The results provide an economic comparison of district and individual supply options at the building level, emphasizing the flexibility district systems can offer to the electricity sector. District energy systems demonstrate cost-stabilization benefits amidst volatile energy prices and external uncertainties. For heating, district systems yield significant cost savings compared to individual solutions, driven by fuel flexibility and the use of local renewable energy sources. For cooling, district systems also show advantages, though individual systems may remain more cost-effective for smaller buildings. Additionally, district systems exhibit considerable flexibility on the heating side, as evidenced by variations in electricity consumption. We recommend future research to explore the relationship between the economics of district energy systems, particularly at the building level, and their flexibility potential for the electricity sector across diverse geographic contexts to reduce overall grid costs and promote grid reliability. This includes areas with distinct zoning laws, municipal priorities, utility structures, and funding mechanisms, such as the United States, and regions like Europe with pronounced electricity price volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Multi-Spectroscopic Determination of Exchange Coupling, Zero-Field Splitting, and g-Matrices in Radical-Bridged Dinuclear Fe(III) Complexes

When the energy gap, Δ, between the lowest-lying spin manifolds within a spin-exchange coupled molecule approaches Δ/k B ≈ 300 K, the traditional temperature-dependence (T < 400 K) of the molar magnetic susceptibility is not always a reliable way to obtain a good estimate of intramolecular exchange couplings. We develop a spectroscopic approach capable of accurately parametrizing complex magnetic Hamiltonians by exploiting the separation of the anisotropy and exchange energy scales in strongly coupled magnetic molecules. Specifically, we combine inelastic neutron scattering, high-frequency electron paramagnetic resonance, far-infrared magneto-spectroscopy and magnetometry, and obtain detailed information about the magnetic properties of a series of diiron complexes derived from [[Fe(cth)] 2 (dxbq)] 3+ (H 2 dxbq: 2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone (x = h) or 3,6-dichloro-2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-benzoquinone (x = c), cth: 5,5,7,12,12,14-hexamethyl-1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane). Well-isolated S = 9/2 ground states emerge due to strong direct antiferromagnetic exchange between the Fe 3+ centers (S = 5/2) and the radical bridging benzoquinone ligand (S = 1/2). The specific sensitivities and transition selection rules of the applied methods allow us to determine the parameters of the microscopic Hamiltonian including exchange coupling, fourth-order Stevens operators and g-factors. Our methodology is directly portable to other strongly coupled molecular compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resilience Metrics for Solar Photovoltaics

This workshop presentation proposes the development of solar photovoltaic (PV) system resilience metrics and a methodology and framework for evaluation of PV resilience metrics. PV resilience metrics are needed to establish a consistent basis for reporting, evaluation, and data collection by industry, evaluate performance of PV systems that have been subject to natural hazards, correlating resilience to system attributes, and predicting resilience for any PV system. PV resilience metrics can guide improved system design, standards, and insurance coverage. Establishing consistent metrics can foster data collection on impacts of natural hazards on PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗