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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Real-Time Movement-Based Traffic Volume Prediction at Signalized Intersections

The traffic volume of each movement at signalized intersections can provide valuable information on real-time traffic conditions that enable traffic control systems to dynamically respond to the fluctuated traffic demands. Real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction is challenging due to various nonlinear spatial relationships at different locations/approaches and the complicated underlying temporal dependencies. In this study, a novel deep intersection spatial-temporal network (DISTN) is developed for real-time movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections, which considers both spatial and temporal features by the convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM), respectively. In addition, the within-day, daily, and weekly periodic trends of traffic volume are also considered in the proposed model. This is the first time that a deep-learning method has been applied for movement-based traffic volume prediction at signalized intersections. In the numerical experiment, the proposed model is evaluated using real-world data and simulation data to demonstrate its effectiveness. The impacts of various structures of traffic networks on the proposed model are also discussed. Results show that the proposed model outperforms some of the state-of-the-art volume prediction methods currently in the literature.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting metal–metal interactions. II. Accelerating generalized schemes through physical insights

Operando-computational frameworks that integrate descriptors for catalyst stability within catalyst screening paradigms enable predictions of rates and selectivity on chemically faithful representations of nanoparticles under reaction conditions. These catalyst stability descriptors can be efficiently predicted by density functional theory (DFT)-based models. The alloy stability model, for example, predicts the stability of metal atoms in nanoparticles with site-by-site resolution. In this work, we use physical insights to present accelerated approaches of parameterizing this recently introduced alloy-stability model. These accelerated approaches meld quadratic functions for the energy of metal atoms in terms of the coordination number with linear correlations between model parameters and the cohesive energies of bulk metals. By interpolating across both the coordination number and chemical space, these accelerated approaches shrink the training set size for 12 fcc p- and d-block metals from 204 to as few as 24 DFT calculated total energies without sacrificing the accuracy of our model. We validate the accelerated approaches by predicting adsorption energies of metal atoms on extended surfaces and 147 atom cuboctahedral nanoparticles with mean absolute errors of 0.10 eV and 0.24 eV, respectively. This efficiency boost will enable a rapid and exhaustive exploration of the vast material space of transition metal alloys for catalytic applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of impact sensitivity, heat of formation and heat of explosion using atomic connectivity

In these proceedings we revisit a large collection of explosives and explosive descriptors with the goal of predicting impact sensitivity using only local atomic environments that can be deciphered from molecular SMILES strings as descriptors without utilizing empirically measured values or computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. From the original database of nearly 500 descriptors, removing empirically measured and electronic structure values decreased the number of descriptors to 135, which we reduced to 18 the most important descriptors using Random Forests. The condensed model predicted impact sensitivity with essentially the same accuracy as the existing, more complex model (R 2 = 0.788 and RSME = 0.312), while remaining applicable to all types of explosives (Peroxides, azides, C-Nitros, Nitroamines, Nitrate Esters, etc.). In addition to impact sensitivity, we proposed similar models to accurately predict values heat of formation (ΔH f ) and heat of explosion (Q), with R 2 = 0.966 and 0.916, respectively. In conclusion, the work in these proceedings allows for prediction of explosive performance and sensitivity with only chemical structure information and an estimate of density.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accurate prediction of core-level spectra of radicals at density functional theory cost via square gradient minimization and recoupling of mixed configurations

State-specific orbital optimized approaches are more accurate at predicting core-level spectra than traditional linear-response protocols, but their utility had been restricted due to the risk of "variational collapse" down to the ground state. We employ the recently developed square gradient minimization algorithm to reliably avoid variational collapse and study the effectiveness of orbital optimized density functional theory (DFT) at predicting second period element 1s core-level spectra of open-shell systems. Several density functionals (including SCAN, B3LYP, and ωB97X-D3) are found to predict excitation energies from the core to singly occupied levels with high accuracy (≤0.3 eV RMS error) against available experimental data. Higher excited states are, however, more challenging by virtue of being intrinsically multiconfigurational. We thus present a configuration interaction inspired route to self-consistently recouple single determinant mixed configurations obtained from DFT, in order to obtain approximate doublet states. This recoupling scheme is used to predict the C K-edge spectra of the allyl radical, the O K-edge spectra of CO + , and the N K-edge of NO 2 with high accuracy relative to experiment, indicating substantial promise in using this approach for the computation of core-level spectra for doublet species [vs more traditional time dependent DFT, equation of motion coupled cluster singles and doubles (EOM-CCSD), or using unrecoupled mixed configurations]. Finally, we also present general guidelines for computing core-excited states from orbital optimized DFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

First principles reactive simulation for equation of state prediction

The high cost of density functional theory (DFT) has hitherto limited the ab initio prediction of the equation of state (EOS). In this article, we employ a combination of large scale computing, advanced simulation techniques, and smart data science strategies to provide an unprecedented ab initio performance analysis of the high explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). Comparison to both experiment and thermochemical predictions reveals important quantitative limitations of DFT for EOS prediction and thus the assessment of high explosives. In particular, we find that DFT predicts the energy of PETN detonation products to be systematically too high relative to the unreacted neat crystalline material, resulting in an underprediction of the detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature at the Chapman–Jouguet state. The energetic bias can be partially accounted for by high-level electronic structure calculations of the product molecules. Furthermore we demonstrate a modeling strategy for mapping chemical composition across a wide parameter space with limited numerical data, the results of which suggest additional molecular species to consider in thermochemical modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elevating zero dimensional global scaling predictions to self-consistent theory-based simulations

In this work, we have developed an innovative workflow, Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal (STEP)-zero-dimensional (0D), within the OMFIT integrated modeling framework. Through systematic validation against the International Tokamak Physics Activity global H-mode confinement database, we demonstrated that STEP-0D, on average, predicts the energy confinement time with a mean relative error of less than 19%. Moreover, this workflow showed promising potential in predicting plasmas for proposed fusion reactors such as the affordable, robust, compact (ARC) reactor, the European demonstration power plant (EU-DEMO), and the China fusion engineering test reactor (CFETR) indicating moderate H-factors between 0.9 and 1.2. STEP-0D allows theory-based prediction of tokamak scenarios, beginning with 0D quantities. The workflow initiates with the PRO-create module, generating physically consistent plasma profiles and equilibrium using the same 0D quantities as the IPB98(y,2) confinement scaling. This sets the starting point for the STEP module, which further iterates between theory-based physics models of equilibrium, core transport, and pedestal to yield a self-consistent solution. Given these attributes, STEP-0D not only improves the accuracy of predicting plasma performance but also provides a path toward a novel fusion power plant design workflow. When integrated with engineering and costing models within an optimization, this new approach could eliminate the iterative reconciliation between plasma models of varying fidelity. This potential for a more efficient design process underpins STEP-0D's significant contribution to future fusion power plant development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicted thermophysical properties of UN, PuN, and (U,Pu)N

Molecular dynamics and density functional theory simulations are used to predict the lattice and electronic contributions of thermophysical properties for UN, PuN, and mixed (U,Pu)N systems. The properties predicted include the lattice parameter, linear thermal expansion, enthalpy, and specific heat capacity, as a function of temperature. The simulation predictions for high temperature specific heat capacity are compared against experimental measurements to understand the behavior, and why differences in the experimental measurements are observed. The influence of adding U vacancies, N interstitials, and Pu to UN is also examined. For this, a new PuN potential parameter set is developed and used with the Kocevski UN potential, enabling the dynamics of mixed (U,Pu)N systems to be studied. How defects impact the thermophysical properties is important for understanding fuel behavior under different reactor conditions, and these mechanistic predictions can be used to support fuel performance codes where data is scarce.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based predictive models for laser direct drive at the Omega Laser Facility

The rich and complex physics of inertial confinement fusion provides a unique and challenging space for high-fidelity first-principles modeling. Consequently, simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this article, we present two deep-learning-based predictive models intended to address these difficulties. The first model (TL DNN) acts as a fast emulator of simulations as well as experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This model is trained on a simulation database and subsequently calibrated on experimental data using transfer learning. To facilitate the development of this model, an autoencoder is developed to reduce the dimensionality of the input space by compressing the laser pulse input. The model predicts key experimental scalar observables of Omega experiments with high accuracy and minimal computational cost. This deep neural net enables rapid exploration of a high-dimensional input parameter space for an optimal implosion design. The second model (DNN SM+) aims to extend the statistical modeling work of Lees et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 105001 (2021)], by increasing the complexity of the model space and allowing for coupling between degradation terms. Since the model capacity of DNN SM+ is higher than the model of Lees et al., DNN SM+ can potentially provide an improvement in predictive capability, and we use this model to provide insight into complicated degradation dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prediction challenge: First principles simulation of the ultrafast electron diffraction spectrum of cyclobutanone

Computer simulation has long been an essential partner of ultrafast experiments, allowing the assignment of microscopic mechanistic detail to low-dimensional spectroscopic data. However, the ability of theory to make a priori predictions of ultrafast experimental results is relatively untested. Herein, as a part of a community challenge, we attempt to predict the signal of an upcoming ultrafast photochemical experiment using state-of-the-art theory in the context of preexisting experimental data. Specifically, we employ ab initio Ehrenfest with collapse to a block mixed quantum–classical simulations to describe the real-time evolution of the electrons and nuclei of cyclobutanone following excitation to the 3s Rydberg state. The gas-phase ultrafast electron diffraction (GUED) signal is simulated for direct comparison to an upcoming experiment at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Laboratory. Following initial ring-opening, dissociation via two distinct channels is observed: the C3 dissociation channel, producing cyclopropane and CO, and the C2 channel, producing CH2CO and C2H4. Direct calculations of the GUED signal indicate how the ring-opened intermediate, the C2 products, and the C3 products can be discriminated in the GUED signal. We also report an a priori analysis of anticipated errors in our predictions: without knowledge of the experimental result, which features of the spectrum do we feel confident we have predicted correctly, and which might we have wrong?

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward an improved nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium model for more predictive simulations of ignition scale hohlraums

Recently, nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) modeling has been identified as the primary reason for discrepant predictions of the peak neutron production time in indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion (ICF) platforms. It has also been observed that predictions of collisional excitation rates differ by as much as 50% from measurements. Theoretical uncertainties in dielectronic recombination rates have also been posited as possibly contributing to errors in NLTE predictions. This work examines the impact of multipliers on collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates on simulations of a directly driven gold sphere and an indirect drive ICF implosion. It is found that multipliers on the collisional excitation rates have a strong impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature and a weaker impact on ionization state, whereas multipliers on dielectronic recombinations rates strongly impact ionization state with a smaller impact on radiant intensity and electron temperature. A self-consistent NLTE model which places multipliers on differing transitions, as motivated by experimental measurements and more detailed atomic physics predictions, improves agreement but does not completely eliminate discrepancies with measurements of the radiant intensity within the 2–4 keV spectral range.

Farmer, W. A. [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational prediction of the effect of amino acid changes on the binding affinity between SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and human ACE2

The association of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) represents the first required step for cellular entry. SARS-CoV-2 has continued to evolve with the emergence of several novel variants, and amino acid changes in the RBD have been implicated with increased fitness and potential for immune evasion. Reliably predicting the effect of amino acid changes on the ability of the RBD to interact more strongly with the hACE2 can help assess the implications for public health and the potential for spillover and adaptation into other animals. Here, we introduce a two-step framework that first relies on 48 independent 4-ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of RBD-hACE2 variants to collect binding energy terms decomposed into Coulombic, covalent, van der Waals, lipophilic, generalized Born solvation, hydrogen bonding, π-π packing, and self-contact correction terms. The second step implements a neural network to classify and quantitatively predict binding affinity changes using the decomposed energy terms as descriptors. The computational base achieves a validation accuracy of 82.8% for classifying single–amino acid substitution variants of the RBD as worsening or improving binding affinity for hACE2 and a correlation coefficient of 0.73 between predicted and experimentally calculated changes in binding affinities. Both metrics are calculated using a fivefold cross-validation test. Our method thus sets up a framework for screening binding affinity changes caused by unknown single– and multiple–amino acid changes offering a valuable tool to predict host adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 variants toward tighter hACE2 binding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dislocation theory of steady and transient creep of crystalline solids: Predictions for olivine

In applications critical to the geological, materials, and engineering sciences, deformation occurs at strain rates too small to be accessible experimentally. Instead, extrapolations of empirical relationships are used, leading to epistemic uncertainties in predictions. To address these problems, we construct a theory of the fundamental processes affecting dislocations: storage and recovery. We then validate our theory for olivine deformation. This model explains the empirical relationships among strain rate, applied stress, and dislocation density in disparate laboratory regimes. It predicts the previously unexplained dependence of dislocation density on applied stress in olivine. The predictions of our model for Earth conditions differ from extrapolated empirical relationships. For example, it predicts rapid, transient deformation in the upper mantle, consistent with recent measurements of postseismic creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved deep learning prediction of antigen–antibody interactions

Identifying antibodies that neutralize specific antigens is crucial for developing effective immunotherapies, but this task remains challenging for many target antigens. The rise of deep learning–based computational approaches presents a promising avenue to address this challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a deep learning approach through two benchmark tests aimed at predicting antibodies for the receptor-binding domain of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein. Three different strategies for constructing input sequence alignments are employed for predicting structural models of antigen–antibody complexes. In our initial testing set, which comprises known experimental structures, these strategies collectively yield a significant top-ranked prediction for 61% of cases and a success rate of 47%. Notably, one strategy that utilizes the sequences of known antigen binders outperforms the other two, achieving a precision of 90% in a subsequent test set of ~1,000 antibodies, balanced between true and control antibodies for the antigen, albeit with a lower recall of 25%. Our results underscore the potential of integrating deep learning methods with single B cell sequencing techniques to enhance the prediction accuracy of antigen–antibody interactions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis of the AFIP-7 Irradiation Test in the Advanced Test Reactor - Oxide Growth Prediction and Correlation

Knowing the thickness of the oxide layer on the surface of aluminum fuel cladding is vitally important for predicting fuel temperature due to the low thermal conductivity of the oxide layer. Several correlation models for predicting oxide growth can be found in the literature. In previous research, the correlations were combined with heat transfer simulations in Abaqus, a finite element analysis code, to forecast the oxide growth. However, this approach requires heat transfer coefficients for modeling heat exchanges with the external flow field, and such coefficients were obtained through empirical equations. Since different empirical equations yield varying heat transfer coefficients, the cladding temperature and predicted oxide thickness both carry a high degree of uncertainty. Here, this research develops a new approach that integrates the fluid flow, fluid and solid heat transfer, and oxide growth correlation(s) into a single computational fluid dynamics model. We demonstrate this approach’s ability to predict oxide development on the AFIP-7 plates during two Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) irradiation cycles. The projected oxide thickness falls within the experimental measurements taken during post irradiation examination.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A newly proposed isotherm model to predict Cs exchange with crystalline silicotitanate in tank waste simulants

The Zheng Anthony Miller (ZAM) computer model, a multicomponent ion exchange model used to predict the exchange of Group I metals onto crystalline silicotitanate (CST), has historically been used to predict Cs distribution coefficients from Hanford and Savannah River Site (SRS) tank waste simulants. Comparison of experimentally determined Cs distribution coefficients from tank waste simulants with ZAM isotherm model predictions indicate overprediction of Cs and K distribution coefficients for simple and complex simulants with the engineered form of CST. Additionally, recent changes in chemical composition/manufacturing of IONSIV TM R9140-B have resulted in increased Cs capacity from high-salt, highly alkaline solutions. Here, this work served to assess different isotherm models and refine equilibrium parameters to develop a model that can be applied to Hanford and SRS tank waste Cs removal efforts. Toward this goal, the Campbell Westesen Peterson (CWP) model was developed. This model utilized the experimentally determined Cs capacity, and simplified ZAM equilibria expressions to include only the binary substitution of Cs + or K + on the Na + sites. Equilibrium constants for these equations were refined using experimentally determined distribution coefficients. Overall, the CWP model significantly improved our ability to predict both Cs and K loading capacity from complex matrices.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗