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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 1

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024). Three distinct rounds of FSP experiments were performed by the experimental team, producing replicate samples utilizing across different nominal processing conditions (Condition IDs) listed in Table 1. The starting material on which FSP was applied was commercially available unprocessed stainless-steel type 316L material. Chosen processing conditions were very diverse, and some were intentionally chosen to produce defects. Several samples experienced tool breakage during experimentation, so a full set of three replicates was not produced for every nominal processing condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 2

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 3

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 4

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Battery Life Prediction Using Reduced-Order Physics Models and Machine Learning (CRADA Final Report)

Phase 1 (Original CRADA, plus no-cost extension modifications #1-3, 6/1/2017 to 3/13/2021): The Australian Department of Defence (AUDoD) is performing accelerated aging tests of Li-ion batteries to benchmark their reliability and degradation characteristics. Using its previously developed battery lifetime predictive model framework, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) will develop analytical models based the AUDoD data to predict lifetime of the multiple Li-ion battery chemistries under real-world use scenarios of interest to AUDoD. The NLR model is based on physical degradation mechanisms encountered by Li-ion batteries and has been previously validated. Phase 2 (CRADA modification #4, plus no-cost extension modification #5, 2/22/2021 to 3/30/2025): Train and support Australian Department of Defence personnel to use NLR software for model-based estimation of Li-ion battery lifetime using accelerated battery aging data collected by the Australian Department of Defence. Under separate DOE funding from 2019 to 2021, NLR enhanced its battery life-prediction software using machine learning algorithms to automate portions of the model-fitting process, requiring significantly less labor and expert judgment and also adding uncertainty quantification, increasing statistical rigor. Under Phase 2, NLR will customize NLR Software and provide it to AuDoD. NLR will enhance its NLR Model to capture aging modes of AuDoD's multi-cell modules, including cell-balancing effects. NLR will develop example single-cell and multi-cell models based on one AuDoD battery aging dataset. NLR will train AuDoD personnel on NLR Software. By the conclusion of the project, NLR will have provided AuDoD the training materials, a user manual and software needed to perform their own analysis of additional and/or future battery aging datasets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

High entropy oxides prediction and discovery by the Mixed Enthalpy-Entropy Descriptor

The vast, high-dimensional composition space of high-entropy oxides (HEOs) offers exceptional opportunities for functional materials discovery, yet it also poses a fundamental challenge: the rational and efficient prediction of stable, synthesizable compositions and the corresponding structure–property relationships. Despite growing interest, the field still lacks broadly applicable, physically grounded descriptors capable of navigating various large chemical spaces. Here, we introduce a Mixed Enthalpy–Entropy Descriptor (MEED) that enables rapid, first-principles–based prediction of HEOs synthesizability across diverse chemistries. Using MEED, we perform high-throughput screening of two distinct HEO families: rocksalt oxides and perovskite oxides. The predicted top candidates in each family were experimentally validated. MEED reveals unifying thermodynamic and structural principles governing stability across both chemical compositions and polymorphs, providing mechanistic insight into the formation of high-entropy phases. This work significantly broadens the accessible chemical design space for HEOs and establishes a data-efficient framework for accelerating the discovery of next-generation functional materials.

Yu, Liping [University of Central Florida]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Expanding the Domain of Applicability of Machine Learning Models with Limited Data for Drug Property Prediction

Accurate machine learning models for predicting small molecule interactions with biological targets are essential for therapeutic discovery, biothreat response, and computational drug design, but their performance is often limited for understudied targets with sparse experimental data. To address this challenge, we developed and evaluated methods to improve molecular property prediction under low-data conditions, using the NimA-related kinase (NEK) family as a proof-of-concept. This work focused on two complementary goals within the ATOM Modeling PipeLine (AMPL) and the Generative Molecular Design (GMD) loop: expanding model applicability through transfer learning, representation learning, feature scaling, sampling strategies, and active-learning-inspired compound selection; and enabling efficient virtual screening to prioritize compounds that balance predicted activity, design objectives, and synthetic accessibility.

organic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing the predictive capabilities of subjective crackle metrics using leave-one-out cross validation

Leave-one-out cross validation was used to show the capability to predict crackling sound quality based on the use of the standard deviation of the time-varying sharpness and the skewness of the derivative of the pressure waveform. The predictive output of this method implies that the more sophisticated fits used to describe this data were not overfit, but instead exhibited substantial predictive value.

Swift, Stephen Hales [Sandia National Laboratories↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Attention for Predictive Control and Optimization of Industrial Processes

In the context of real-time optimization and model predictive control of industrial systems, machine learning, and neural networks represent cutting-edge tools that hold promise for enhancing dynamic modeling. This work presents a novel transformer neural network architecture for real-time optimization and model predictive control. This network design includes a modified attention mechanism inspired by positional embedding attention from vision transformers and task-specific modifications to the input-output structure of the transformer’s decoder stack. Experiments were conducted using data from a 450 MW coal-fired power plant to evaluate this approach's effectiveness. The transformer neural network was compared with conventional recurrent models, including GRU and LSTM. The transformer exhibited a 6% increase in the R-squared (R2) value of predictions and an 83% reduction in mean squared error (MSE). Computation time was also reduced by 84% compared to conventional recurrent models.

Gallup, Ethan R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dataset for "Bioaerosols are the dominant source of warm-temperature immersion-mode INPs and drive uncertainties in INP predictability

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) are a rare subset of atmospheric aerosol that can initiate primary ice formation and thus trigger cloud glaciation. The re is a significant gap between our ability to measure INPs and to predict their concentrations and variability in large-scale weather and climate models. Accurate simulation of I NPs requires simulation of their major particle sources, as well as representative parameterizations of IN efficiency. Thus, there is a need for measurements of INP concentrations , delineated by particle type, to validate and improve model prediction of INP concentrations. Here we present a novel method for speciating INP concentrations into the relative c ontributions from dust, sea spray aerosol (SSA), and bioaerosol using single particle measurements. In a field campaign at Bodega Bay (coastal California), we find that bioaerosol s were the primary source of INPs between -12 and -20 ?C, while dust was a relatively minor source and SSA did not contribute significantly. We show that recent INP parameterizati ons for dust and SSA accurately predict ambient INP concentrations for these particle types. Finally, we use the speciated INP concentrations to evaluate the simulation of INPs at Bodega Bay, using a Lagrangian approach to connect the locally-observed aerosol with regionally-widespread emissions parameterizations. We find that we can skillfully simulate du st and SSA INPs, but not bioaerosol INPs. This points to a need for additional research to identify the major factors controlling the emissions and INP efficiency of bioaerosol IN Ps in order to develop improved parameterizations and enable their improved representation in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing predictive models for µ opioid receptor binding using machine learning and deep learning techniques

Opioids exert their analgesic effect by binding to the µ opioid receptor (MOR), which initiates a downstream signaling pathway, eventually inhibiting pain transmission in the spinal cord. However, current opioids are addictive, often leading to overdose contributing to the opioid crisis in the United States. Therefore, understanding the structure-activity relationship between MOR and its ligands is essential for predicting MOR binding of chemicals, which could assist in the development of non-addictive or less-addictive opioid analgesics. This study aimed to develop machine learning and deep learning models for predicting MOR binding activity of chemicals. Chemicals with MOR binding activity data were first curated from public databases and the literature. Molecular descriptors of the curated chemicals were calculated using software Mold2. The chemicals were then split into training and external validation datasets. Random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, and long short-term memory models were developed and evaluated using 5-fold cross-validations and external validations, resulting in Matthews correlation coefficients of 0.528–0.654 and 0.408, respectively. Furthermore, prediction confidence and applicability domain analyses highlighted their importance to the models’ applicability. Our results suggest that the developed models could be useful for identifying MOR binders, potentially aiding in the development of non-addictive or less-addictive drugs targeting MOR.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Induced microearthquakes predict permeability creation in the brittle crust

Predicting the evolution of permeability accurately during stimulation at the reservoir scale and at the resolution of individual fractures is essential to characterize the fluid transport and the reactive/heat-transfer characteristics of reservoirs where stress exerts significant control. Here, we develop a hybrid machine learning (ML) model to visualize in situ permeability evolution for an intermediate-scale (~10 m) hydraulic stimulation experiment. This model includes an ML model that was trained using the well history of flow rate and wellhead pressure and MEQ data from the first three stimulation episodes to predict average permeability from the statistical features of the MEQs alone for later episodes. Moreover, a physics-inspired model is integrated to estimate in situ fracture permeability spatially. This method relates fracture permeability to fracture dilation and scales dilation to the equivalent MEQ magnitude, according to laboratory observations. The seismic data are then applied to define incremental changes in permeability in both space and time. Our results confirm the excellent agreement between the ground truth and model-predicted permeability evolution. The resulting permeability map defines and quantifies flow paths in the reservoir with the averaged permeability comparing favorably with the ground truth of permeability.

induced seismicity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near-Infrared Spectroscopy can Predict Anatomical Abundance in Corn Stover

Feedstock heterogeneity is a key challenge impacting the deconstruction and conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass to biobased fuels, chemicals, and materials. Upstream processing to homogenize biomass feedstock streams into their anatomical components via air classification allows for a more tailored approach to subsequent mechanical and chemical processing. Here, we show that differing corn stover anatomical tissues respond differently to pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis and therefore, a one-size-fits-all approach to chemical processing biomass is inappropriate. To inform on-line downstream processing, a robust and high-throughput analytical technique is needed to quantitatively characterize the separated biomass. Predictive correlation of near-infrared spectra to biomass chemical composition is such a technique. Here, we demonstrate the capability of models developed using an “off-the-shelf,” industrially relevant spectrometer with limited spectral range to make strong predictions of both cell wall chemical composition and the relative abundance of anatomical components of the corn stover, the latter for the first time ever. Gaussian process regression (GPR) yields stronger correlations (average R 2 v = 88% for chemical composition and 95% for anatomical relative abundance) than the more commonly used partial least squares (PLS) regression (average R 2 v = 84% for chemical composition and 92% for anatomical relative abundance). In nearly all cases, both GPR and PLS outperform models generated using neural networks. These results highlight the potential for coupling NIRS with predictive models based on GPR due to the potential to yield more robust correlations.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

TCR-H: explainable machine learning prediction of T-cell receptor epitope binding on unseen datasets

Artificial-intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) approaches to predicting T-cell receptor (TCR)-epitope specificity achieve high performance metrics on test datasets which include sequences that are also part of the training set but fail to generalize to test sets consisting of epitopes and TCRs that are absent from the training set, i.e., are ‘unseen’ during training of the ML model. We present TCR-H, a supervised classification Support Vector Machines model using physicochemical features trained on the largest dataset available to date using only experimentally validated non-binders as negative datapoints. TCR-H exhibits an area under the curve of the receiver-operator characteristic (AUC of ROC) of 0.87 for epitope ‘hard splitting’ (i.e., on test sets with all epitopes unseen during ML training), 0.92 for TCR hard splitting and 0.89 for ‘strict splitting’ in which neither the epitopes nor the TCRs in the test set are seen in the training data. Furthermore, we employ the SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) eXplainable AI (XAI) method for post hoc interrogation to interpret the models trained with different hard splits, shedding light on the key physiochemical features driving model predictions. TCR-H thus represents a significant step towards general applicability and explainability of epitope:TCR specificity prediction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of the mechanical properties of refractory multicomponent alloys based on a dataset of phase and first principles simulation

In this work, a dataset including structural and mechanical properties of refractory multicomponent alloys was developed by fusing computations of phase diagram (CALPHAD) and density functional theory (DFT). The refractory multicomponent alloys, also named refractory complex concentrated alloys (CCAs) which contain 2–5 types of refractory elements were constructed based on Special Quasi-random Structure (SQS). The phase of alloys was predicted using CALPHAD and the mechanical property of alloys with stable and single body-centered cubic (BCC) at high temperature (over 1,500°C) was investigated using DFT-based simulation. As a result, a dataset with 393 refractory alloys and 12 features, including volume, melting temperature, density, energy, elastic constants, mechanical moduli, and hardness, were produced. To test the capability of the dataset on supporting machine learning (ML) study to investigate the property of CCAs, CALPHAD, and DFT calculations were compared with principal components analysis (PCA) technique and rule of mixture (ROM), respectively. It is demonstrated that the CALPHAD and DFT results are more in line with experimental observations for the alloy phase, structural and mechanical properties. Furthermore, the data were utilized to train a verity of ML models to predict the performance of certain CCAs with advanced mechanical properties, highlighting the usefulness of the dataset for ML technique on CCA property prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Predictions of Transition Probabilities in Atomic Spectra

Forward modeling of optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities requires knowledge of the individual transition probabilities for every transition in the spectrum. In many cases, these transition probabilities, or Einstein A-coefficients, quickly become practically impossible to obtain through either theoretical or experimental methods. Complicated electronic orbitals with higher order effects will reduce the accuracy of theoretical models. Experimental measurements can be prohibitively expensive and are rarely comprehensive due to physical constraints and sheer volume of required measurements. Due to these limitations, spectral predictions for many element transitions are not attainable. In this work, we investigate the efficacy of using machine learning models, specifically fully connected neural networks (FCNN), to predict Einstein A-coefficients using data from the NIST Atomic Spectra Database. For simple elements where closed form quantum calculations are possible, the data-driven modeling workflow performs well but can still have lower precision than theoretical calculations. For more complicated nuclei, deep learning emerged more comparable to theoretical predictions, such as Hartree–Fock. Unlike experiment or theory, the deep learning approach scales favorably with the number of transitions in a spectrum, especially if the transition probabilities are distributed across a wide range of values. It is also capable of being trained on both theoretical and experimental values simultaneously. In addition, the model performance improves when training on multiple elements prior to testing. The scalability of the machine learning approach makes it a potentially promising technique for estimating transition probabilities in previously inaccessible regions of the spectral and thermal domains on a significantly reduced timeline.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗