Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Finite Element Predictions for Mars Sample Return Cellular Impact Test #4

The nonlinear, transient dynamic finite element code, MSC.Dytran, was used to simulate an impact test of an energy absorbing Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) that will impact without a parachute. EEVOs are designed to return materials from asteroids, comets, or planets for laboratory analysis on Earth. The EEV concept uses an energy absorbing cellular structure designed to contain and limit the acceleration of space exploration samples during Earth impact. The spherical shaped cellular structure is composed of solid hexagonal and pentagonal foam-filled cells with hybrid graphite-epoxy/Kevlar cell walls. Space samples fit inside a smaller sphere at the center of the EEVOs cellular structure. Pre-test analytical predictions were compared with the test results from a bungee accelerator. The model used to represent the foam and the proper failure criteria for the cell walls were critical in predicting the impact loads of the cellular structure. It was determined that a FOAM1 model for the foam and a 20% failure strain criteria for the cell walls gave an accurate prediction of the acceleration pulse for cellular impact.

Fasanella, Edwin L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Material Characterization for Ductile Fracture Prediction

The research summarized in this document provides valuable information for structural health evaluation of NASA infrastructure. Specifically, material properties are reported which will enable calibration of ductile fracture prediction methods for three high-toughness metallic materials and one aluminum alloy which can be found in various NASA facilities. The task of investigating these materials has also served to validate an overall methodology for ductile fracture prediction is currently being employed at NASA. In facilitating the ability to incorporate various materials into the prediction scheme, we have provided data to enable demonstration of the overall generality of the approach.

Hill, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Theoretical Prediction of Microgravity Ignition Delay of Polymeric Fuels in Low Velocity Flows

A new flammability apparatus and protocol, FIST (Forced Flow Ignition and Flame Spread Test), is under development. Based on the LIFT (Lateral Ignition and Flame Spread Test) protocol, FIST better reflects the environments expected in spacebased facilities. The final objective of the FIST research is to provide NASA with a test methodology that complements the existing protocol and provides a more comprehensive assessment of material flammability of practical materials for space applications. Theoretical modeling, an extensive normal gravity data bank and a few validation space experiments will support the testing methodology. The objective of the work presented here is to predict the ignition delay and critical heat flux for ignition of solid fuels in microgravity at airflow velocities below those induced in normal gravity. This is achieved through the application of a numerical model previously developed of piloted ignition of solid polymeric materials exposed to an external radiant heat flux. The model predictions will provide quantitative results about ignition of practical materials in the limiting conditions expected in space facilities. Experimental data of surface temperature histories and ignition delay obtained in the KC-135 aircraft are used to determine the critical pyrolysate mass flux for ignition and this value is subsequently used to predict the ignition delay and the critical heat flux for ignition of the material. Surface temperature and piloted ignition delay calculations for Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and a Polypropylene/Fiberglass (PP/GL) composite were conducted under both reduced and normal gravity conditions. It was found that ignition delay times are significantly shorter at velocities below those induced by natural convection.

Fernandez-Pello, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Climate Modeling and Prediction at NSIPP

The talk will review modeling and prediction efforts undertaken as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus will be on atmospheric model results, including its use for experimental seasonal prediction and the diagnostic analysis of climate anomalies. The model's performance in coupled experiments with land and atmosphere models will also be discussed.

Suarez, Max↗
NASA NTRS2001

Computational Thermodynamic Study to Predict Complex Phase Equilibria in the Nickel-Base Superalloy Rene N6

A previous study by Ritzert et al. on the formation and prediction of topologically closed packed (TCP) phases in the nickel-base superalloy Rene' N6 is re-examined with computational thermodynamics. The experimental data on phase distribution in forty-four alloys with a composition within the patent limits of the nickel-base superalloy Rene' N6 provide a good basis for comparison to and validation of a commercial nickel superalloy database used with ThermoCalc. Volume fraction of the phases and partitioning of the elements are determined for the forty-four alloys in this dataset. The baseline heat treatment of 400 h at 1366 K was used. This composition set is particularly interesting since small composition differences lead to dramatic changes in phase composition. In general the calculated values follow the experimental trends. However, the calculations indicated no TCP phase formation when the experimental measurements gave a volume percent of TCP phase less than 2 percent. When TCP phases were predicted, the calculations under-predict the volume percent of TCP phases by a factor of 2 to 8. The calculated compositions of the gamma and gamma' phases show fair agreement with the measurements. However, the calculated compositions of the P Phase do not agree with those measured. This may be due to inaccuracies in the model parameters for P phase and/or issues with the microprobe analyses of these phases. In addition, phase fraction diagrams and sigma and P phase solvus temperatures are calculated for each of the alloys. These calculations indicate that P phase is the primary TCP phase formed for the alloys considered here at 1366 K. Finally, a series of isopleths are calculated for each of the seven alloying elements. These show the effect of each alloying element on creating TCP phases.

Copland, Evan H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Occultation Predictions Using CCD Strip-Scanning Astrometry

We are developing the method of CCD strip-scanning astrometry for the purpose of deriving reliable advance predictions for occultations involving small objects in the outer solar system. We are using a camera system based on a Ford/Loral 2Kx2K CCD with the Crossley telescope at Lick Observatory for this work. The columns of die CCD are aligned East-West, the telescope drive is stopped, and the CCD is clocked at the same rate that the stars drift across it. In this way we obtain arbitrary length strip images 20 arcmin wide with 0.58" pixels. Since planets move mainly in RA, it is possible to obtain images of the planet and star to be occulted on the same strip well before the occultation occurs. The strip-to-strip precision (i.e. reproducibility) of positions is limited by atmospheric image motion to about 0.1" rms per strip. However, for objects that are nearby in R.A., the image motion is highly correlated and their relative positions are good to 0.02" rms per strip. We will show that the effects of atmospheric image motion on a given strip can be removed if a sufficient number of strips of a given area have been obtained. Thus, it is possible to reach an rms precision of 0.02" per strip, corresponding to about 0.3 of Pluto or Triton's angular radius. The ultimate accuracy of a prediction based on strip-scanning astrometry is currently limited by the accuracy of the positions of the stars in the astrometric network used and by systematic errors most likely due to the optical system. We will show the results of . the prediction of some recent occultations as examples of the current capabilities and limitations of this technique.

Dunham, Edward W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of Relaminarization Effects on Turbine Blade Heat Transfer

An approach to predicting turbine blade heat transfer when turbulent flow relaminarizes due to strong favorable pressure gradients is described. Relaminarization is more likely to occur on the pressure side of a rotor blade. While stators also have strong favorable pressure gradients, the pressure surface is less likely to become turbulent at low to moderate Reynolds numbers. Accounting for the effects of relaminarization for blade heat transfer can substantially reduce the predicted rotor surface heat transfer. This in turn can lead to reduced rotor cooling requirements. Two-dimensional midspan Navier-Stokes analyses were done for each of eighteen test cases using eleven different turbulence models. Results showed that including relaminarization effects generally improved the agreement with experimental data. The results of this work indicate that relatively small changes in rotor shape can be utilized to extend the likelihood of relaminarization to high Reynolds numbers. Predictions showing how rotor blade heat transfer at a high Reynolds number can be reduced through relaminarization are given.

Boyle, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Assessment of the Unstructured Grid Software TetrUSS for Drag Prediction of the DLR-F4 Configuration

An application of the NASA unstructured grid software system TetrUSS is presented for the prediction of aerodynamic drag on a transport configuration. The paper briefly describes the underlying methodology and summarizes the results obtained on the DLR-F4 transport configuration recently presented in the first AIAA computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Drag Prediction Workshop. TetrUSS is a suite of loosely coupled unstructured grid CFD codes developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The meshing approach is based on the advancing-front and the advancing-layers procedures. The flow solver employs a cell-centered, finite volume scheme for solving the Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations on tetrahedral grids. For the present computations, flow in the viscous sublayer has been modeled with an analytical wall function. The emphasis of the paper is placed on the practicality of the methodology for accurately predicting aerodynamic drag data.

Pirzadeh, Shahyar Z.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Object Detection in Natural Backgrounds Predicted by Discrimination Performance and Models

In object detection, an observer looks for an object class member in a set of backgrounds. In discrimination, an observer tries to distinguish two images. Discrimination models predict the probability that an observer detects a difference between two images. We compare object detection and image discrimination with the same stimuli by: (1) making stimulus pairs of the same background with and without the target object and (2) either giving many consecutive trials with the same background (discrimination) or intermixing the stimuli (object detection). Six images of a vehicle in a natural setting were altered to remove the vehicle and mixed with the original image in various proportions. Detection observers rated the images for vehicle presence. Discrimination observers rated the images for any difference from the background image. Estimated detectabilities of the vehicles were found by maximizing the likelihood of a Thurstone category scaling model. The pattern of estimated detectabilities is similar for discrimination and object detection, and is accurately predicted by a Cortex Transform discrimination model. Predictions of a Contrast- Sensitivity- Function filter model and a Root-Mean-Square difference metric based on the digital image values are less accurate. The discrimination detectabilities averaged about twice those of object detection.

Ahumada, A. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Consideration of Moving Tooth Load in Gear Crack Propagation Predictions

Robust gear designs consider not only crack initiation, but crack propagation trajectories for a fail-safe design. In actual gear operation, the magnitude as well as the position of the force changes as the gear rotates through the mesh. A study to determine the effect of moving gear tooth load on crack propagation predictions was performed. Two-dimensional analysis of an involute spur gear and three-dimensional analysis of a spiral-bevel pinion gear using the finite element method and boundary element method were studied and compared to experiments. A modified theory for predicting gear crack propagation paths based on the criteria of Erdogan and Sih was investigated. Crack simulation based on calculated stress intensity factors and mixed mode crack angle prediction techniques using a simple static analysis in which the tooth load was located at the highest point of single tooth contact was validated. For three-dimensional analysis, however, the analysis was valid only as long as the crack did not approach the contact region on the tooth.

Lewicki, David G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Impact of Quikscat Data on Numerical Weather Prediction

Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse ---mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in July 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) was the first data assimilation center to assimilate QuikScat SeaWinds data and evaluate their impact on numerical weather prediction. Several data impact experiments have been performed, using systems from both the DAO (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS). In general, these experiments have shown a modest impact of SeaWinds data on numerical weather prediction, the magnitude of which appears to be comparable to the magnitude of the impact of AMI scatterometer data from the ERS satellites. Some of the main results from these experiments will be presented at the meeting.

Atlas, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Roads, John↗
NASA NTRS2002

High Speed Jet Noise Prediction Using Large Eddy Simulation

Current methods for predicting the noise of high speed jets are largely empirical. These empirical methods are based on the jet noise data gathered by varying primarily the jet flow speed, and jet temperature for a fixed nozzle geometry. Efforts have been made to correlate the noise data of co-annular (multi-stream) jets and for the changes associated with the forward flight within these empirical correlations. But ultimately these emipirical methods fail to provide suitable guidance in the selection of new, low-noise nozzle designs. This motivates the development of a new class of prediction methods which are based on computational simulations, in an attempt to remove the empiricism of the present day noise predictions.

Lele, Sanjiva K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

We developed techniques to predict application execution times for instance-based learning with an average error of 33% of average run time. We developed techniques to predict queue wait times that included a simulation of scheduling algorithms and execution time predictions. We implemented these techniques for the NAS Origin cluster.

Smith, Warren↗
NASA NTRS2002

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Discriminability of Prediction Artifacts in a Time Delayed Virtual Environment

Overall latency remains an impediment to perceived image stability and consequently to human performance in virtual environment (VE) systems. Predictive compensators have been proposed as a means to mitigate these shortcomings, but they introduce rendering errors because of induced motion overshoot and heightened noise. Discriminability of these compensator artifacts was investigated by a protocol in which head tracked image stability for 35 ms baseline VE system latency was compared against artificially added (16.7 to 100 ms) latency compensated by a previously studied Kalman Filter (K-F) predictor. A control study in which uncompensated 16.7 to 100 ms latencies were compared against the baseline was also performed. Results from 10 subjects in the main study and 8 in the control group indicate that predictive compensation artifacts are less discernible than the disruptions of uncompensated time delay for the shorter but not the longer added latencies. We propose that noise magnification and overshoot are contributory cues to the presence of predictive compensation.

Adelstein, Bernard D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project: In Partnership With the NCCS

Researchers with NASA's Season-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) refer to different types of memory when running models on NCCS computers: the computer memory required for their models and the memory of the atmosphere or the ocean. Because of the atmosphere's chaotic nature, its memory is short. For weather predictions, the initial information taken from atmospheric observations has a limited useful life. Currently, there is no way to take observations, initialize an atmosphere model, integrate ahead in time, and make an accurate weather forecast beyond about 2 weeks. After that, the system becomes chaotic. What conditions could be used to make predictions beyond 2 weeks? If not conditions in the atmosphere, then the memory must be found somewhere else. That place is in the oceans. Although most changes in the atmosphere vary on a short timescale, the weather being a prime example, some important large atmospheric climate variations occur over much longer timescales-month s, years, or decades. NSIPP is interested specifically in those phenomena that occur over timescales of several months to a few years, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant of these.

Source record↗