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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Real Options Analysis for Valuation of Climate Adaptation Pathways With Application to Transit Infrastructure

Climate change and sea level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood severity, and flood losses inform the full range of adaptation performance outcomes. We further propose and apply a novel, computationally efficient flood loss sampling algorithm to estimate the consequences of randomly arriving coastal flood events. We apply this ROA framework to assess the option value of flexibly timing adaptation investments over time, investigating an adaptation pathway proposed by the City of Boston from the perspective of the regional transit system manager. Our results suggest that flexible implementation can provide significant option value in the near-to mid-term(>30 years), with highest option values under low-probability, high consequence scenarios. Our results also suggest adaptation pathway performance in the latter half of the 21stcenturyis most sensitive to uncertainty in sea level rise, flood loss estimates, and flood frequency, underscoring the importance of uncertainty quantification in the long-term valuation of adaptation investments.

Michael V. Martello↗

Chromatin landscaping in algae reveals novel regulation pathway for biofuels production

The diminishing reserve of fossil fuels calls for the development of biofuels. Biofuels are produced from renewable resources, including photosynthetic organisms, generating clean energy. Microalgae is one of the potential feedstock for biofuels production. It grows easily even in waste water, and poses no competition to agricultural crops for arable land. However, little is known about the algae lipid biosynthetic regulatory mechanisms. Most studies relied on the homology to other plant model organisms, in particular Arabidopsis or through low coverage expression analysis to identify key enzymes. This limits the discovery of new components in the biosynthetic pathways, particularly the genetic regulators and effort to maximize the production efficiency of algal biofuels. Here we report an unprecedented and de novo approach to dissect the algal lipid pathways through disclosing the temporal regulations of chromatin states during lipid biosynthesis. We have generated genome wide chromatin maps in chlamydomonas genome using ChIP-seq targeting 7 histone modifications and RNA polymerase II in a time-series manner throughout conditions activating lipid biosynthesis. To our surprise, the combinatory profiles of histone codes uncovered new regulatory mechanism in gene expression in algae. Coupled with matched RNA-seq data, chromatin changes revealed potential novel regulators and candidate genes involved in the activation of lipid accumulations. Genetic perturbation on these candidate regulators further demonstrated the potential to manipulate the regulatory cascade for lipid synthesis efficiency. Exploring epigenetic landscape in microalgae shown here provides powerful tools needed in improving biofuel production and new technology platform for renewable energy generation, global carbon management, and environmental survey.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

MN Solar Pathways: Solar Deployment Strategies-Modeling and Case Studies

As part of the Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, Clean Power Research (CPR) developed a Solar Deployment Strategies modeling tool to calculate the economic impacts and market incentives created by different solar portfolios and rate structures. CPR developed the tool using Minnesota-specific data and assumptions. The case studies described in this report provide insight into possible pathways toward the state goal of 10% solar, but the emphasis of the report is the demonstration of the tool in use cases that can be expanded and modified in future years as needs change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Transforming New Multifamily Construction to Zero: Strategies for Implementing Energy Targets and Design Pathways: Preprint

Creating zero energy (ZE) mid- to high-rise multifamily buildings represent significant challenges in the design world. Tenants often take responsibility for some of the utilities and are responsible for consumption of some of the largest end uses: hot water and plug loads. Furthermore, designers can experience risk in creating new sets of details and recommending new strategies to reach aggressive EUI targets. To assist in a more streamlined and successful design approach to ZE multifamily buildings, five major professional societies and experts from the multifamily space created a Zero Energy Advanced Energy Design Guide (AEDG) for multifamily buildings based on data driven results coupled with actual design experiences and case studies. Pathways to achieve ZE design were established including whole building energy use intensity targets coupled with details on how to achieve success in implementing individual efficiency measures. The guidance strives to overcome design barriers and this paper provides an overview of the recommended process to achieve ZE or ZE-ready status, along with details on selecting energy targets, and strategy pathways to achieve the targets.

advanced energy design guide↗

Exploring the Future of Mobility: Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model

The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) modeling framework is intended to generate future pathways to achieve system-level goals, estimate implications of different scenarios and decisions, estimate affordability and infrastructure use impacts, assess energy use and emissions implications, inform decision makers, and assess integration opportunities between transportation and energy infrastructure and supply systems.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A Perspective on Multistep Pathways of Nucleation

While views on crystal nucleation throughout the 20th century were dominated by classical nucleation theory (CNT) in which the ordered nucleus forms directly from monomeric species, observations over the past two decades across scientific fields have revealed a plethora of multi-step nucleation processes, often involving more complex species. These processes have come to be known as non-classical, reflecting distinctions from the expectations of CNT. Here I consider the various classes of non-classical nucleation pathways and examine the extent to which they can be easily placed within the framework of CNT modified to include well-understood complexities in the free energy landscape and/or kinetic factors. I highlight recent examples that illustrate these pathways before turning to processes that cannot readily be included in this framework. I conclude by describing future research directions needed to fill the knowledge gaps that prevent the development of quantitative models for multi-step nucleation processes

De Yoreo, James J.↗

Nonclassical Crystallization Pathway in Biomolecular Self-assembly

Biomolecular self-assembly plays a vital role in synthetic and biological material systems and has therefore attracted tremendous interest due to its great potential for applications in biomedical and tissue engineering, biosensing, materials science, and nanotechnology. Although there have been numerous studies focusing on these systems’ designs, structures, and functions, little attention has been given to the mechanisms by which they nucleate. In this chapter, we review some recent advances in understanding the nucleation pathways of self-assembling biomolecular systems. We will mainly focus on crystallization via nonclassical nucleation mechanisms, which involve the addition of oligomers and more complex species or passage through transient metastable states, including dense liquids, amorphous clusters, and crystalline polymorphs. However, some cases that go through classical pathways are also introduced and discussed.

Chen, Jiajun↗

Analyzing Foreign and Domestic Policy to Determine a Pathway to Achieving the US' NDC with a Focus on Advanced Reactors and Hydrogen

The United states in 2021 released a nationally determined contribution indicating goals to reach 50-52% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 and to achieve zero carbon electricity by 2035. Current policy does not put us on course to achieve these goals, so we investigated policies that could form a pathway to achieve these goals in the US. We focused on the use of advanced nuclear reactors and hydrogen, but analyzed all relevant sectors to achieve our goals. This report also focuses on analyzing existing foreign policies and determining the most effective policies in each sectors. By combining the most effective policies from around the world in each sector, we find that we can set policies that form a pathway that is ambitious enough to meet the NDC goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Study of treatment as an alternative WM pathway: examples of I-graphite and metallic components such as steam generators - 15212

EDF is working continuously to optimize and secure its waste management pathways, leading in some case to develop appropriate treatment solutions that could be implemented parallel to reference solutions, complementary or as alternative solutions to already existing paths. This approach is illustrated by the examples of steam generators replaced during the operation of French PWR power plants, and of irradiated graphite (stacks and sleeves), coming from the decommissioning of UNGG reactors, which have been shut down. Concerning graphite wastes, the near surface disposal facility intended for this waste does not exist yet, and is currently giving rise to the research of a suitable site, and an evaluation of its performances. While accompanying ANDRA (French national agency for nuclear waste management), in charge of the development of the facility, and while waiting for more data to be available, EDF is continuing the consolidation of graphite wastes radiological inventory, and is working on the development of an alternative management solution, based on a thermal treatment process. Depending on the nature of the treatment, and on the choice of operating parameters, this treatment may contribute to reduce graphite wastes volume and/or promote its acceptance in a disposal facility. Reducing the radiological inventory by decontamination is one of the means to achieve these objectives. Concerning replaced steam generators, nearly 200 of them will have been removed by 2030, and stored on site waiting for their treatment, which represents about 65 000 tons of metal. Initially intended to be cut and packed on NPPs' sites during their dismantling, EDF is studying the economic value of having the steam generators treated in a centralized facility, which allows reducing the volume of final wastes by optimizing cutting operations, while considering recycling after melting. However, this studied pathway implies a number of difficulties to be overcome. In particular, the shipment of such large components to a centralized facility may be complex. Moreover, French regulatory framework does not allow recycling outside nuclear industry, therefore limiting recycling opportunities to storage containers for radioactive wastes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nuclide Release Pathways in and Around a Trench Repository for Radioactive Waste - 16014

An effective model for a safety assessment of a conceptual trench repository system, in which low-and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) is disposed of has been developed. The repository system is assumed to be located in the surface area of a mountain hill near the seashore. An easy-to-use computer program based on this model, developed as a GoldSim template, has been extended based on the previous one in consideration of the rather possible complex pathways in and around the trench for its performance assessment, which is able to evaluate a nuclide release from the repository and farther transport into the geosphere and biosphere under various normal, disruptive natural, and manmade events, and scenarios that can occur after a failure of waste drums with associated uncertainty. To demonstrate the nuclide release and transport behavior through these various possible pathways in the near- and far-fields of the repository system under certain scenarios, some illustrative evaluations and a simple sensitivity investigation with C-14 for the concrete barriers of the trench were made. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Nuclear-Driven Chemical Conversion Pathways

The purpose of this work is to explore the possibilities of using coal as a carbon resource by converting it to fuels and chemicals with heat from a nuclear power plant. While many previous studies have focused on coal gasification, this process requires combusting a portion of the coal and producing heat. By employing pyrolysis over gasification, the energy content in the coal can be preserved. Pyrolysis of coal also results in a large portion of solid char, which can be converted to activated carbon and sold to various markets. This model uses hydrogen produced by nuclear-supplied heat and electricity to convert the syngas stream to methanol, which has many pathways for further processing into fuels, chemicals, and plastics. Specifically, this project focuses on non-fuel products for methanol pathways. The CO2 captured within the refinery model can also be combined with hydrogen to produce more chemical products and reduce CO2 emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

leapR: An R Package for Multiomic Pathway Analysis

A generalized goal of many high-throughput data studies is to identify functional mecha-nisms that underlie observed biological phenomena, whether disease outcomes or metabolic out-put. Increasingly, studies that rely on multiple sources of high-throughput data (genomic, tran-scriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic) are faced with a challenge of utilizing the data in a way that maximizes utility. However, methods for integration of multiple forms of molecular data into a biolog-ically coherent frameworks are needed. Furthermore, we have developed a framework to assess biological pathway activity that relates to phenotypic outcome using multi-source data. Availability and implementation: The leapR package with user manual and example workflow is available for download from GitHub (https://github.com/biodataganache/leapR).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling

As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways in a World with Agricultural Climate Impacts

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.

agricultural climate impacts↗

Toward More Efficient Organic Solar Cells: A Detailed Study of Loss Pathway and Its Impact on Overall Device Performance in Low‐Offset Organic Solar Cells

Abstract Low‐offset organic solar cell systems have attracted great interest since nonfullerene acceptors came into the picture. While numerous studies have focused on the charge generation process in these low‐offset systems, only a few studies have focused on the details of each loss channel in the charge generation process and their impact on the overall device performance. Here, several nonfullerene acceptors are blended with the same polymer donor to form a series of low‐offset organic solar cell systems where significant variation in device performance is observed. Through detailed analyses of loss pathways, it is found that: i) the donor:acceptor interfaces of PM6:Y6 and PM6:TPT10 are close to the optimum energetic condition, ii) energetics at the donor:acceptor interface are the most important factor to the overall device performance, iii) exciton dissociation yield can be field‐dependent owing to the sufficiently small energetic offset at the donor:acceptor interface, and iv) the change in substituents in the terminal group of Y‐series acceptors in this work mainly affects energetics at the donor:acceptor interface instead of the interface density in the active layer. In general, this work presents a path toward more efficient organic solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exceptionally High Rates of Biological Hydrogen Production by Biomimetic In Vitro Synthetic Enzymatic Pathways

Hydrogen production by water splitting energized by biomass sugars is one of the most promising technologies for distributed green H 2 production. Direct H 2 generation from NADPH, catalysed by an NADPH-dependent, soluble [NiFe]-hydrogenase (SH1) is thermodynamically unfavourable, resulting in slow volumetric productivity. We designed the biomimetic electron transport chain from NADPH to H 2 by the introduction of an oxygen-insensitive electron mediator benzyl viologen (BV) and an enzyme (NADPH rubredoxin oxidoreductase, NROR), catalysing electron transport between NADPH and BV. The H 2 generation rates using this biomimetic chain increased by approximately five-fold compared to those catalysed only by SH1. The peak volumetric H 2 productivity via the in vitro enzymatic pathway comprised of hyperthermophilic glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase, 6-phosphogluconolactonase, and 6-phosphogluconate dehydrogenase, NROR, and SH1 was 310 mmol H 2 /L h -1 , the highest rate yet reported. The concept of biomimetic electron transport chains could be applied to both in vitro and in vivo H 2 production biosystems and artificial photosynthesis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗