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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Parametric analysis on optimized design of hybrid solar power plants

There is increasing interest in utility-scale solar power plants with storage which can flexibly dispatch renewable energy to the grid. However, plant design possesses many degrees of freedom and non-obvious trade-offs in performance. Software tools can estimate or optimize the performance of a specific plant configuration under market and weather conditions of interest; the associated cost parameters and operating assumptions strongly influence estimates of plant performance and decisions regarding optimal sizing. We employ the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform, which incorporates optimal dispatch when evaluating plant performance, and investigate the sensitivity to weather and market conditions, operating limitations, and the presence of a capacity-based incentive. We demonstrate changes in plant performance and optimal sizing with respect to these inputs and discuss implications. Here results show that PV-with-battery designs are more profitable under our assumptions, but that designs including a concentrated solar power (CSP) system produce significantly greater annual energy; and that CSP-with-thermal energy storage designs maximizing the benefit-to-cost ratio have an input-dependent linear relationship between the CSP field solar multiple and the hours of storage as the project budget varies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Active Learning‐Driven Inkless Additive Nanomanufacturing for Printed Electronics

Inkless additive nanomanufacturing for printed electronics promises broad material and substrate versatility, yet the high-dimensional print parameter space makes tuning print parameters time-intensive. We present a Bayesian optimization study that constructs a digital twin from printed-silver data to benchmark surrogate models, acquisition functions, and batch sizes head-to-head to achieve user-specified target resistance. Tested surrogate models included Gaussian process, random forest, and Bayesian neural network surrogates with expected improvement and confidence bound acquisition functions. In total, we evaluate 48 unique model configurations alongside a random sampling baseline for comparison. For printed silver, the Bayesian neural network with a batch size of one achieved the lowest average cumulative regret, approximately four times more efficient on average than random sampling. To balance performance and substrate space, a random forest model with expected improvement and a batch size of four was chosen as the model for validation testing. Applying this chosen configuration to copper with an additional print parameter, the model achieved a resistance within 0.15 Ω of a 1 Ω target in fewer than 30 printed lines across five validation sets. Altogether, the workflow yields a tuned and validated model that efficiently guides experiments toward the target while simultaneously learning the parameter space.

Bevel, Colton [Auburn University, AL (United State↗

Neural network approaches for parameterized optimal control

Here, we consider numerical approaches for deterministic, finite-dimensional optimal control problems whose dynamics depend on unknown or uncertain parameters. We seek to amortize the solution over a set of relevant parameters in an offline stage to enable rapid decision-making and be able to react to changes in the parameter in the online stage. To tackle the curse of dimensionality arising when the state and/or parameter are high-dimensional, we represent the policy using neural networks. We compare two training paradigms: First, our model-based approach leverages the dynamics and definition of the objective function to learn the value function of the parameterized optimal control problem and obtain the policy using a feedback form. Second, we use actor-critic reinforcement learning to approximate the policy in a data-driven way. Using an example involving a two-dimensional convection-diffusion equation, which features high-dimensional state and parameter spaces, we investigate the accuracy and efficiency of both training paradigms. While both paradigms lead to a reasonable approximation of the policy, the model-based approach is more accurate and considerably reduces the number of PDE solves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity Analysis and Effective Parametrization of PEM Fuel Cell Models

The cost of proton-exchange-membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) remains a major hurdle in large-scale commercialization of this technology. To improve their performance and reduce cost, novel materials and electrode designs are continuously envisioned, e.g., non-PGM catalyst layers, ultra-thin Pt/Pt-Ni based catalyst layers, structured ionomer arrays or NSTF catalyst layers.1 Understanding the impact of these improvement strategies can be extremely time and cost intensive due to complex physical phenomena and large design space. We have previously developed a PEMFC modeling framework2 which has been a time and cost effective tool for understanding and optimizing the complex multi-physics phenomena within PEMFCs; however, several of the cell parameters used in the modeling have large spread in measured data.3 Furthermore, several transport parameters such as water adsorption kinetics have not been accurately measured and the approximations are spread over several orders of magnitude. These uncertainties cause problems in ascertaining accuracy of the modeling approach and they reduce the predictive power of the numerical models. The aim of this work is to identify the sensitivity of PEFC numerical model outputs to various input parameters. The previously in-house developed MEA modeling framework2 is used for PEMFC modeling. The sensitivity of the model outputs with respect to inputs parameters is obtained by analyzing the condition numbers for different output-input pairs at varying operating conditions. An example of the sensitivity analysis is shown in Figure 1. The condition numbers are obtained for the entire possible range of input parameters at varying operating conditions to identify the most crucial parameters of the PEMFC model. Based on our preliminary analysis, parameters related to kinetics (exchange current density and ECSA) and heat/water management in electrodes and ionomer (ionomer fraction, thermal conductivity) are most crucial. One of the major goals of this work is to identify the most crucial set of parameters towards which the model shows maximum sensitivity. This will guide future experimentalists to measure these properties with higher accuracy. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis will also enable us to optimize the PEMFC performance by selectively targeting the most sensitive parameters and thereby making the largest impact. Acknowledgements The work is funded under the Fuel Cell Performance and Durability Consortium (FC-PAD), by the Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract number DE-AC02-05CH11231. The authors would like to thank Nathan Craig at Robert Bosch LLC for his valuable input in designing the sensitivity analysis. The authors would also like to thank Giovanna Bucci and Matthias Hanauer at Robert Bosch for their valuable inputs and discussion. References P. K. Sinha, W. Gu, A. Kongkanand and E. Thompson, J. Electrochem. Soc., 158, B831 (2011). L. M. Pant, M. R. Gerhardt, N. Macauley, R. Mukundan, R. L. Borup and A. Z. Weber, Electrochim. Acta, 326, 134963 (2019). R. Vetter and J. O. Schumacher, ArXiv181110091 Phys. (2018). Figure 1

Pant, Lalit↗

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implementation of an extensible property modeling framework in ESPEI with applications to molar volume and elastic stiffness models

Property models are becoming more widely adopted by commercial Calphad databases, but they are not nearly as common in non-commercial or traditional academic Calphad databases. A primary driver is that user-friendly Calphad modeling tools that support property models are not widely available. Here we present new property modeling capabilities that have been implemented in ESPEI (the Extensible, Self-optimizing Phase Equilibrium Infrastructure). These capabilities include both generating property model parameters from data and improvements to the algorithmic selection of the most appropriate model from a series of candidates. Additionally, two illustrative examples are given that use ESPEI to fit different property models. First, we generate molar volume model parameters for Group IV, V, and VI refractory BCC alloys based on the model by Lu et al. (2005). Second, we demonstrate the extensibility of ESPEI’s property modeling capabilities by implementing a custom PyCalphad model for BCC elastic stiffness parameters to generate and compare parameters to the ones assessed by Marker et al. (2018) using the same data. Property models generated by ESPEI can be used in PyCalphad or further optimized with uncertainty quantification using ESPEI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Bayesian D‐Optimal Designs for Gaussian Process Surrogate Models

Computer experiments often employ space-filling strategies to create surrogate models with strong predictive performance. The impact of model parameter estimation for Gaussian process surrogates, however, is often overlooked. Obtaining a better initial estimate of the covariance lengthscale parameter, θ, can greatly improve the resulting Gaussian process fit through more effective sequential acquisitions during active learning. In this work, we propose a novel initial design maximizing the Bayesian D-optimality criterion of the Gaussian process lengthscale parameter. Previously published results have shown the emphasis on lengthscale estimation to be promising, but relied on an empirically driven design creation process. Our Bayesian D-optimal designs are rooted in information theory and lead to more informative sequential acquisitions by improving lengthscale estimation. In many cases, these gains eventually result in better surrogates than those seeded with space-filling initial designs. Furthermore, Bayesian D-optimal designs can be tailored to either isotropic or anisotropic covariance structures, and the Bayesian framework enables the inclusion of prior knowledge in the design process, offering greater flexibility and adaptability. Through several simulation studies, we demonstrate the advantages of Bayesian D-optimal designs in terms of both lengthscale estimation accuracy and predictive performance during active learning.

Bayesian experimental design↗

HIPED: Machine learning framework for spherical tokamak pedestal prediction and optimization

We introduce a Machine Learning framework, HIPED (HeIght and width Predictor for Edge Dynamics), for predicting and optimizing pedestal and core performance in spherical tokamak plasmas. Trained on pedestal and core datasets from the third MAST-U campaign, HIPED provides accurate estimates of pedestal height and width. The results reveal notable differences compared with conventional aspect-ratio studies; for instance, a simple power-law relation between pedestal width and height has very low accuracy. Instead, additional parameters such as normalized plasma pressure, elongation, and Greenwald fraction significantly improve accuracy. HIPED can also be trained only on `control room parameters' to inform experimentalists of which controllable parameters to adjust for improving core-integrated performance. The framework further includes a multi-objective optimization scheme that helps guide experimental planning and optimization. We find Pareto-optimal discharges with respect to various features, including distance from edge-localized modes and normalized plasma pressure, track their parameter trajectories over time, and identify the control room parameters required for these Pareto-optimal discharges. This provides a framework for systematically optimizing core and edge performance according to different experimental priorities.

Parisi, Jason F. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborat↗

Optimizers for stabilizing likelihood-free inference

A growing number of applications in particle physics and beyond use neural networks as unbinned likelihood ratio estimators applied to real or simulated data. Precision requirements on the inference tasks demand a high-level of stability from these networks, which are affected by the stochastic nature of training. We show how physics concepts can be used to stabilize network training through a physics-inspired optimizer. In particular, the energy conserving descent (ECD) optimization framework uses classical Hamiltonian dynamics on the space of network parameters to reduce the dependence on the initial conditions while also stabilizing the result near the minimum of the loss function. We develop a version of this optimizer known as , which has few free hyperparameters with limited ranges guided by physical reasoning. We apply to representative likelihood-ratio estimation tasks in particle physics and find on average that it out-performs the widely used Adam optimizer. We expect that ECD will be a useful tool for wide array of data-limited problems, where it is computationally expensive to exhaustively optimize hyperparameters and mitigate fluctuations with ensembling.

Monte Carlo methods↗

Crack mitigation and wear performance of high-strength steel coatings deposited by high-speed laser cladding

This article investigates the fabrication of defect-free Rockit® 606, a high‑carbon, vanadium- and chromium-enriched precipitation-hardening martensitic steel coating, using high-speed laser cladding (HSLC). Compared to conventional laser cladding, HSLC offers higher deposition efficiency, improved coating quality, minimal thermal distortion, and a reduced heat-affected zone. Various HSLC parameters—including laser power, travel speed, powder feed rate, and overlap distance—were optimized to achieve superior coating properties. Microstructural analysis revealed solidification cracks in coatings deposited on carburized steel, regardless of processing parameters. However, preheating the substrate to 250 °C effectively eliminated cracking by reducing thermal gradients. The coatings exhibited a columnar dendritic microstructure, with coarser dendrites near the substrate and finer dendrites towards the surface. Hardness measurements confirmed that all coatings significantly exceeded the industry-specified threshold of 60 HRC, with preheating having minimal effect on overall hardness distribution. Reciprocating sliding wear tests demonstrated a substantial improvement in wear resistance for the defect-free HSLC coatings compared to baseline carburized steel. These findings underscore the potential of HSLC for producing high-performance, wear-resistant coatings suitable for industrial applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Relative-Humidity Dependence of Electrochemically Active Surface Area in Porous Carbon Catalyst Layers

Polymer-electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs) utilize porous catalyst layers (CLs) formed of carbon supports on which Pt particles are deposited and ionomer films are distributed. Carbon supports themselves have varying degrees of porosity, where high-surface-area carbon (HSC) supports possess nanometer-sized interior pores that are suitable for Pt nanoparticle deposition but prevent deleterious ionomer penetration. However, this requires protons to transport through water pathways inside the pores. To understand the generation of such pathways, we examine the various mechanisms of water uptake by PEFC CLs, and the subsequent impact of water uptake on Pt utilization through developing a multiphysics model of the water wetting phenomena as a function of relative humidity. The model details water uptake via ionomer absorption, capillary condensation in the hydrophilic pores, and surface adsorption using molecular potential that account for various water and surface dipole interactions. The results quantify how mesoporous carbons with highly hydrophilic pores increase Pt utilization through the development of wetted layers, which at the same time enable optimized gas-transport pathways. It also demonstrates the impact of pore-size distribution (PSD) and physical and chemical parameters on the water uptake phenomena, allowing for future CL particle and structure optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dielectric and magnetic properties of microwave-absorbing FeAl x O y catalysts fabricated via solution combustion synthesis

Iron-based alumina (FeAl x O y ) nanocomposites are microwave-absorbers and catalysts, which makes them promising for emerging microwave-assisted thermocatalytic technologies. Solution combustion synthesis (SCS) has been used to synthesize FeAl x O y powders, and prior work has demonstrated that adjusting SCS parameters significantly changes phase composition and specific surface area of the products. However, it is unclear how synthesis parameters affect their microwave-absorbing properties, which are essential for optimizing microwave-assisted technologies. To address this challenge, in the present work, twelve different FeAl x O y products were synthesized at different combinations of the SCS parameters such as two fuels (citric acid and glycine), two heating modes (hotplate and muffle furnace), and three Fe:Al molar ratios (2:1, 1:1, 1:2). Dielectric and magnetic properties of the products were characterized using a network analyzer and a vibrating sample magnetometer. Based on the measured permittivity and permeability, penetration depth and reflection loss were calculated as a function of frequency and bed thickness. The products were heated by microwaves at 2.45 GHz and then examined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis. For all products, the magnetic saturation was lower than for bulk iron oxides because of the small crystallite size and aluminum substitution. The use of glycine induced high dielectric losses and enabled fast microwave-heating rates compared to citric acid. Higher Fe:Al ratio also led to higher dielectric and magnetic losses. With glycine fuel, SCS in a furnace induced larger penetration depth and lower microwave absorption than SCS on a hotplate. The minimization of reflected power was more sensitive to the thickness of the product bed than to the frequency of the electromagnetic field. Post-heating XRD analysis revealed different phase transformations in the FeAl x O y powders depending on the SCS parameters. As a result, an FeAl x O y material, synthesized via incipient wetness impregnation, lacked magnetic losses and did not heat well as compared to the SCS products.

Combustion synthesis↗

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Bayesian optimization for inverse calibration of expensive computer models: A case study for Johnson-Cook model in machining

Inverse model calibration for identifying the constitutive model parameters can be computationally demanding for expensive-to-evaluate simulation models. Here, this paper presents a modified Bayesian optimization (BO) method, denoted as BO-bound, that incorporates theoretical bounds on the quantity of interest. A case study for the inverse calibration of the Johnson Cook (J-C) flow stress model parameters is presented using machining (cutting) force data. The results show fast calibration of the five J-C parameters within 25 simulations. In general, the BO-bound method is applicable for inverse calibration of any expensive simulation models as well as optimization problems with known bounds.

Bayesian optimization↗

Reproducibility and Optimization Techniques for Evaluated Data in the Resolved Resonance Region [Slides]

This presentation discusses the experimental setup input parameters that are basic quantities for reproducibility. The goal is to increase quality of the evaluated data and decrease time needed for an evaluation. Full reproducibility should be achieved efficiently by including any type of constraints in the optimization procedure and to improve computational time to reach convergence. The goal of an automated reproducibility aligns to the goal of “certified” evaluated data, i.e., defined by a well-defined metric.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development and validation of a second-order thermal network model for residential buildings

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems can maintain the space air temperature of residential buildings, either directly by heating/cooling the air, or indirectly via heat transfer to and from the building structure that acts as a thermal mass. Hence, HVAC systems can help achieve load shifting, peak load reduction, and/or energy cost saving, thus enabling grid-interactive HVAC operation. A home thermal model that can accurately reflect the dynamics of the space air and interior wall surface temperatures, is therefore valuable. This paper develops such a model using the standard RC (resistance-capacitance) approach. The model contains a virtual envelope node and an internal space node and is thus second-order. A hybrid parameter identification scheme, made up of the least-squares and optimal search methods, is also developed. The proposed model and scheme were validated using data collected from a test home. It was found that a modest amount of training data was sufficient to yield reliable parameter estimates and accurate prediction. It was also found that when making 24-hour-ahead prediction of the space air temperature, both methods had comparable performances when the training data began in a transition season. However, when they began in an HVAC season, the optimal search method performed better. Furthermore, the least-squares method is recommended during a transition season due to its lower computational burden, while the optimal search method is recommended during an HVAC season due to its better estimation performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Holey Lamellar High-Entropy Oxide as an Ultra-High-Activity Heterogeneous Catalyst for Solvent-free Aerobic Oxidation of Benzyl Alcohol

The development of noble-metal-free heterogeneous catalysts is promising for selective oxidation of aromatic alcohols; however, the relatively low conversion of non-noble metal catalysts under solvent-free atmospheric conditions hinders their industrial application. Now, a holey lamellar high entropy oxide (HEO) Co 0.2 Ni 0.2 Cu 0.2 Mg 0.2 Zn 0.2 O material with mesoporous structure is prepared by an anchoring and merging process. The HEO has ultra-high catalytic activity for the solvent-free aerobic oxidation of benzyl alcohol. Furthermore, up to 98% conversion can be achieved in only 2 h, to our knowledge, the highest conversion of benzyl alcohol by oxidation to date. By regulating the catalytic reaction parameters, benzoic acid or benzaldehyde can be selectively optimized as the main product. Analytical characterizations and calculations provide a deeper insight into the catalysis mechanism, revealing abundant oxygen vacancies and holey lamellar framework contribute to the ultra-high catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Likelihood Maximization and Moment Matching in Low SNR Gaussian Mixture Models

We derive an asymptotic expansion for the log-likelihood of Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) with equal covariance matrices in the low signal-to-noise regime. The expansion reveals an intimate connection between two types of algorithms for parameter estimation: the method of moments and likelihood optimizing algorithms such as Expectation-Maximization (EM). We show that likelihood optimization in the low SNR regime reduces to a sequence of least squares optimization problems that match the moments of the estimate to the ground truth moments one by one. This connection is a stepping stone towards the analysis of EM and maximum likelihood estimation in a wide range of models. A motivating application for the study of low SNR mixture models is cryo-electron microscopy data, which can be modeled as a GMM with algebraic constraints imposed on the mixture centers. We discuss the application of our expansion to algebraically constrained GMMs, among other example models of interest. © 2022 The Authors. Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗