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DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stockmayer fluid simulations for viscosity and glass transition temperature of ionic liquids

We develop a Stockmayer fluid model for molecular dynamics simulations of ionic liquids that captures molecular polarization, ionic conductivity, viscosity, and glass transition temperature, using ethylammonium nitrate (EAN) as an example. The ions in EAN are treated as spheres interacting via the Lennard-Jones potential with an embedded point charge and a permanent dipole moment. We show that our simulation results for EAN are consistent with experimental data and then explore the effects of the molecular parameters on the viscosity of ionic liquids. Our results indicate that viscosity monotonically increases with ionic charge and dipole moment but non-monotonically changes with ionic diameter (or molar volume). This non-monotonic trend arises from the competition among the electrostatic interactions, molecular packing, and size asymmetry between the cation and anion. In conclusion, our model also shows that long-lived ion pairs result in higher viscosities.

Coarse-grained simulations↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Standardized Analysis Process Using Digital Image Correlation to Calculate In Situ Cladding Strain from Modified Burst Tests for Fuel Performance Code Validation

Historical data collection on nuclear fuel cladding materials has focused on generating a statistically significant amount of data to assess the material and its failure behavior. Furthermore, data generated to support material model and failure criteria development were previously posttest evaluations, so a large number of tests was required to gain new understanding. A way to expedite this process is to develop techniques capable of generating large, high-fidelity data sets from a single test with lower uncertainty or quantified uncertainty. One such example of this approach is Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s use of modified burst tests (MBTs) to analyze the mechanical behavior and failure conditions of cladding during a simulated reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). Each test incorporates digital image correlation (DIC) analysis techniques that are used to assess the accumulated strain in situ, as well as eventual cladding failure. This work has been fruitful in defining strain-to-failure conditions for materials like silicon carbide (SiC) fiber–reinforced/SiC matrix composite tubes (SiC/SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy tubes, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. However, there are numerous DIC software available, including open-source and proprietary software. The different DIC software use various algorithms to process images and calculate displacement values. Using these different software and algorithms can lead to varying results, and perhaps larger-than-expected uncertainties. In the present study, previously published MBT data encompassing a variety of test conditions were reanalyzed with two different DIC software to assess the variance in the calculated strain results. The data consisted of SiC/SiC, FeCrAl, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. Plots of the calculated strains during the transient revealed good agreement between the two DIC software. The average root-mean-square errors between the two software was 0.20% strain, which is slightly larger than a previously reported error value for these tests. In conclusion, this variance in results is low enough that this analysis method can be used for code validation.

Reactivity-initiated accident↗

DOE OSTI2025

DFT-based insight into finite-temperature properties of ferroelectric perovskites with lone-pair: the case of CsGeX 3 (X = Cl, Br, I)

Ferroelectrics remain in the focus of scientific attention for decades owing to their fundamental and practical appeal. Recently, ferroelectricity has been demonstrated in semiconducting halide perovskites (Zhang et al 2022 Sci. Adv. 8 eabj5881), offering both a rare combination of ferroelectricity and semiconductivity in the same material and a possible alternative to the prevailing perovskite oxide ferroelectrics. We propose a route to simulating such materials at finite temperatures capable of reproducing key experimental and first-principle data, such as Curie temperature, phase transition sequence, spontaneous polarization, and soft mode frequencies. The key methodological finding is the superior performance of hybrid exchange correlation functionals in parametrization of effective Hamiltonians for ferroelectrics with lone pair. The parametrization for effective Hamiltonians for CsGeX 3 (X = Cl, Br, I) is reported. The application of methodology to study polarization reversal in CsGeX 3 allows for the development of a ‘minimalistic’ model for polarization reversal in ferroelectrics that provides an insight into the mechanisms of polarization reversal and its key features, such as the relationship between the coercive field, temperature, and AC field frequency. Importantly, the model reveals the origin of the well-known and ever-puzzling overestimation of coercive fields in computations. Furthermore, we report a variety of finite-temperature properties of CsGeX 3 ferroelectrics, such as dielectric susceptibility, pyroelectric coefficients, and energy storage density, which reveal that these halide perovskites possess properties comparable to their oxide counterparts. Here, we believe that our work provides significant methodological advancements, deepens fundamental understanding of ferroelectrics, and reveals the potential of halide perovskite ferroelectrics.

effective Hamiltonian↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of divertor detachment induced through neon seeding and density ramp on HL-3

A new self-consistent 1D scrape-off layer model has been recently developed in BOUT++ framework, named SD1D, which includes equations for various particle species (e.g. main plasma, neutrals and impurities) and couples open databases like ADAS and AMJUEL. It is able to quickly and effectively simulate divertor detachment experiments. In this work, a typical detachment experiment (shot #6270) on HL-3 with neon seeding is simulated using the SD1D code. It is found that the target electron temperature and the target ion saturation current in the simulations are consistent with experimental results measured by Langmuir probes on the target plate. The variation of D α radiation intensity in the divertor is qualitatively similar to the measured D α signal. Following the experimental validations, different upstream densities are set in the simulations to study the impurity distribution under different plasma density conditions. It is found that increasing upstream density can be helpful for the control of the neon radiation front (closer to the target). In this work we also compare two detachment regimes in simulations. Based on the same initial experimental parameters (shot #6270) on HL-3, a scan of upstream density and a scan of neon seeding rate are carried out respectively. It is found that the role of atomic and molecular processes is different in the two detachment regimes. The current density roll-over is ascribed to a drop in the divertor ion source, and the variation of D α radiation intensity via different excitation channels is associated with the relevant collisional reaction sources.

BOUT++↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kinetic modeling of hot tail runaway electron generation during plasma disruptions using the JOREK code

The generation of runaway electrons (REs) during disruptions poses a significant challenge for the operation of tokamaks. The production of these high-energy electrons can cause substantial damage, particularly when the plasma current is high, making it a critical concern for ITER. For the high-temperature plasmas anticipated in ITER, the primary generation of REs may be dominated by the hot tail mechanism, which consists of the acceleration of hot electrons from the pre-disruption population which have not yet thermalized with the bulk following the rapid cooling of the plasma. To account for the significant 3D effects on RE production, a hot tail modeling framework has been developed within the non-linear 3D extended MHD code JOREK. This paper presents the structure of this framework, which is based on test electrons evolving in MHD fields. The verification of the method shows good agreement with the reference DREAM code for 0D test cases, as well as for axisymmetric simulations of 15 MA ITER H-mode disruption scenarios. Furthermore, a proof-of-principle application to a DIII-D case demonstrates the framework’s capability to capture for the first time the hot tail generation in 3D MHD simulations in realistic geometry. Preliminary results suggest that the production of REs is significantly reduced by stochastic losses.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mass dependence of halo baryon fractions from the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect

ABSTRACT We detect the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich imprint of peculiar motions of galaxy groups and clusters, using the photometric Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Surveys together with cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). We develop a comprehensive forward model based on the AbacusSummit cosmological simulations: Mock galaxy group catalogues and synthetic kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (kSZ) maps are generated, together with a reconstructed peculiar velocity field that allows for photo-z errors, redshift-space distortions, and survey masks. We investigate possible contamination from the cosmic infrared background (CIB), finding that CIB effects are subdominant to the kSZ signal in the relevant ACT frequency channel. We then predict the kSZ signal expected when stacking CMB temperature maps around groups, taking account of their estimated radial velocities. Comparing the model with observations, we are able to constrain the total baryon fraction within haloes, as well as their internal gas profiles. We find evidence for mass dependence of the halo baryon fraction within the virial radius. The gas fraction in massive groups is consistent with the universal baryon fraction, but low-mass groups ($10^{12.5} \lesssim M\, /\, h^{-1}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot \lesssim 10^{14}$) are depleted to $0.38 \pm 0.11$ times the universal baryon fraction. We find this low virial baryon fraction to be consistent with an extended gas profile, for which the total baryon content reaches the universal value well beyond the virial radius. This conclusion is consistent with previous analyses using X-ray, kSZ, and weak lensing, and plausibly reflects energetic feedback processes from the galaxies in these haloes.

Roper, Finn A [Institute for Astronomy, University↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-Hermitian quantum mechanics approach for extracting and emulating continuum physics based on bound-state-like calculations: Detailed description

Here, this work applies a reduced basis method to study the continuum physics of a finite quantum system—either few or many-body. Specifically, I develop reduced-order models, or emulators, for the underlying inhomogeneous Schrödinger equation and train the emulators against the equation's bound-state-like solutions at complex energies. The emulators rapidly and accurately interpolate and extrapolate the matrix elements of the Hamiltonian resolvent operator (Green's function) across a parameter space that includes both complex energy and other real-valued physical inputs in the Schrödinger equation. The spectra, discretized and compressed as the result of emulation, and the associated resolvent matrix elements (or amplitudes), have the defining characteristics of non-Hermitian quantum mechanics calculations, featuring complex eigenenergies with negative imaginary parts and branch cuts moved below the real axis in the complex energy plane. Therefore, one now has a method that extracts continuum physics from bound-state-like calculations and emulates those extractions in the input parameter space. Building on a prior Letter [Zhang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 135, 242501 (2025)], this article provides the full theoretical details, a comprehensive analysis of the method's performance, and a brief discussion of how it can be coupled with existing continuum approaches to perform emulations in their input parameter spaces.

ab initio calculations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Induced Density Wave in a Kagome Superconductor

On the kagome lattice, electrons benefit from the simultaneous presence of band topology, flat electronic bands, and Van Hove singularities, forming competing or cooperating orders. Understanding the interrelation between these distinct order parameters remains a significant challenge, leaving much of the associated physics unexplored. In the kagome superconductor KV 3 Sb 5 , which exhibits a charge density wave (CDW) state below T ≃ 78 K, we uncover an unpredicted field-induced phase transition below 6 K. The observed transition is marked by a hysteretic anomaly in the resistivity, nonlinear electrical transport, and a change in the symmetry of the electronic response as probed via the angular dependence of the magnetoresistivity. These observations surprisingly suggest the emergence of an unanticipated broken symmetry state coexisting with the original CDW. To understand this experimental observation, we developed a theoretical minimal model for the normal state inside the high-temperature parent CDW phase, where an incommensurate CDW order emerges as an instability subleading to superconductivity. Here, the incommensurate CDW emerges when superconducting fluctuations become fully suppressed by large magnetic fields. Our results suggest that, in kagome superconductors, quantum states can either coexist or are nearly degenerate in energy, indicating that these are rich platforms to expose new correlated phenomena.

Charge density waves↗

DOE OSTI2024

Directional Superradiance in a Driven Ultracold Atomic Gas in Free Space

Ultracold atomic systems are among the most promising platforms that have the potential to shed light on the complex behavior of many-body quantum systems. One prominent example is the case of a dense ensemble illuminated by a strong coherent drive while interacting via dipole-dipole interactions. Despite being subjected to intense investigations, this system retains many open questions. A recent experiment carried out in a pencil-shaped geometry [Ferioli Nat. Phys. 19, 1345 (2023)] has reported measurements that have seemed consistent with the emergence of strong collective effects in the form of a “superradiant” phase transition in free space, when looking at the light-emission properties in the forward direction. Motivated by the experimental observations, we carry out a systematic theoretical analysis of the steady-state properties of the system as a function of the driving strength and atom number N . We observe signatures of collective effects in the weak-driving regime, which disappear with increasing drive strength as the system evolves into a single-particle-like mixed state comprised of randomly aligned dipoles. Although the steady state features some similarities to the reported superradiant-to-normal nonequilibrium transition, also known as cooperative resonance fluorescence, we observe significant qualitative and quantitative differences, including a different scaling of the critical drive parameter (from N to N ). We validate the applicability of a mean-field treatment to capture the steady-state dynamics under currently accessible conditions. Furthermore, we develop a simple theoretical model that explains the scaling properties by accounting for interaction-induced inhomogeneous effects and spontaneous emission, which are intrinsic features of interacting disordered arrays in free space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Agarwal, Sanaa (ORCID:0000000336863804)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computing virtual dark-field X-ray microscopy images of complex discrete dislocation structures from large-scale molecular dynamics simulations

Dark-field X-ray microscopy (DFXM) is a novel diffraction-based imaging technique that non-destructively maps the local deformation from crystalline defects in bulk materials. While studies have demonstrated that DFXM can spatially map 3D defect geometries, it is still challenging to interpret DFXM images of the high-dislocation-density systems relevant to macroscopic crystal plasticity. This work develops a scalable forward model to calculate virtual DFXM images for complex discrete dislocation structure(s) (DDS) obtained from atomistic simulations. Our new DDS-DFXM model integrates a non-singular formulation for calculating the local strain from the DDS and an efficient geometrical optics algorithm for computing the DFXM image from the strain field. We apply the model to complex DDS obtained from a large-scale molecular dynamics simulation of compressive loading on single-crystal silicon. Simulated DFXM images exhibit prominent contrast for dislocation features between the multiple slip systems, demonstrating the potential of DFXM to resolve features from dislocation multiplication. In conclusion, the integrated DDS-DFXM model provides a toolbox for DFXM experimental design and image interpretation in the context of bulk crystal plasticity for a range of measurements across shock plasticity and the broader materials science community.

X-ray imaging↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing the Survivability of Power Systems With Grid-Edge DERs Against DoS Attacks

Power system survivability, defined as the ability of a system to maintain steady-state functionality under varying operational conditions, reflects its resilience against disturbances. While existing research primarily focuses on physical-layer disturbances, the increasing prevalence of grid-edge DERs, which are primarily used for integrating renewable energy, has significantly expanded the cyber attack surface. As a result, operational disruptions caused by cyber threats are posing significant challenges to system survivability and cannot be overlooked. To fill this gap, we redefine system survivability to incorporate the cyber layer’s status and propose a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to enhance power system survivability against potential cyber-physical threats. In this paper, we first analyze the operational guidelines of systems with a high penetration of DERs under various cyber network conditions and redefine survivability in this context. Next, we focus on the most common cyber threat, Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks, and develop a corresponding attack model. This model allows for the creation of a kernel-based ambiguity set that captures attack uncertainties using historical data. Finally, we transform the proposed DRO model as a tractable optimization problem, with its solution providing an optimal cyber redundancy plan to enhance system survivability in DoS attack scenarios. Simulation results on the IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in improving system survivability. This model can also be expanded to include other types of common attacks and serve as a comprehensive planning tool to improve overall cyber physical survival of the system.

cybersecurity↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Quench Protection of Direct Wind Magnets

The direct wind magnets have several unique features. The conductor layout is characterized by thin single conductors wound over long lengths and separated from the other turns with thick layer of insulation. Moreover, there are several layers of winding. The strong non-uniformity in the magnetic field distribution results in different current and thermal margins for quenching in different regions. The quench protection modeling involves multi-physics coupling between electrical, thermal and magnetic transient. The material properties vary over time and location. This coupled with the complexity in the geometry adds to long computation times. The objective of this study is to understand the quench propagation in an EIC high inductance direct wind magnet which enables one to design appropriate quench protection strategies to protect the magnet. An advanced modeling program has been developed to simulate direct wind magnet quench. In conclusion, we validate theoretical simulations with experimental data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying Adversarial Cyber-Activity in Operational Technology Environments Using Bayesian Networks

Critical infrastructure and other operational technology (OT) environments face increasing cybersecurity risks from adversarial behavior. This paper describes the development of a risk model using a Bayesian network to enhance the comprehension of observable cyber events caused by malicious activity in OT environments. The core of the Bayesian network is a process model that describes the stages of adversary behavior. The remainder of the model is based on the MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) taxonomy, which includes tactics and techniques that may be used by the adversary. The observables provide evidence for adversary behavior through the intermediary technique and tactic nodes. One challenge in constructing this model is a lack of open-source data from cyber-attacks on OT systems. This paper discusses learning from limited data, the elicitation of expert opinion to construct the conditional probability tables when data is scarce, and the refinement of the most difficult conditional probabilities tables using several forms of sensitivity analyses. Finally, the Bayesian network is demonstrated using two historical case studies: the DarkSide ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline and the destructive cyberattack targeting the ThyssenKrupp blast furnace. Index Terms—Cybersecurity, industrial control systems, operational technology

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

InterQnet: A Heterogeneous Full-Stack Approach to Co-Designing Scalable Quantum Networks

Quantum communications have progressed significantly, moving from a theoretical concept to small-scale experiments to recent metropolitan-scale demonstrations. As the technology matures, it is expected to revolutionize quantum computing in much the same way that classical networks revolutionized classical computing. Quantum communications will also enable breakthroughs in quantum sensing, metrology, and other areas. However, scalability has emerged as a major challenge, particularly in terms of the number and heterogeneity of nodes, the distances between nodes, the diversity of applications, and the scale of user demand. This article describes InterQnet, a multidisciplinary project that advances scalable quantum communications through a comprehensive approach that improves devices, error handling, and network architecture. InterQnet has a two-pronged strategy to address scalability challenges: InterQnet-Achieve focuses on practical realizations of heterogeneous quantum networks by building and then integrating first-generation quantum repeaters with error mitigation schemes and centralized automated network control systems. The resulting system will enable quantum communications between two heterogeneous quantum platforms through a third type of platform operating as a repeater node. InterQnet-Scale focuses on a systems study of architectural choices for scalable quantum networks by developing forward-looking models of quantum network devices, advanced error correction schemes, and entanglement protocols. Here, we report our current progress toward achieving our scalability goals.

Chung, Joaquin [Argonne] (ORCID:0000000173833810)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗