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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Study of e + e - → η Φ via initial state radiation at Belle

Using 980 fb -1 of data collected on and around the (n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) resonances with the Belle detector at the KEKB collider, we measure the cross section of e + ⁢e - → η⁢Φ from threshold to 3.95 GeV via initial state radiation. There are clear Φ⁡(1680) and J/ψ signals but no significant Φ⁡(2170) signal in the ηΦ final state. The branching fraction $\mathscr{B}$⁡[J/ψ →η⁢Φ] is measured to be (7.2 ±0.8 ±0.5) ×10 -4 . The resonant parameters of Φ⁡(1680) are determined to be m Φ(1680) = (1696±8±10) MeV/c 2 (statistical and systematic errors, respectively), Γ Φ⁡(1680) =(175±13±16) MeV and, depending on the possible presence of predominantly constructive or destructive interference between Φ⁡(1680) and continuum production, Γ$^{e^+e^-}_{Φ⁡(1680)}$·$\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ⁡(1680)→ηΦ] and $\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ(1680)→η⁢Φ] are determined to be (75 ±10 ±11) eV and (25±12±2)% or (207±16±20) eV and (23 ±10 ±2)%, respectively. The upper limit for Γ$^{e^+e^-}_{Φ⁡(2170)}$·$\mathscr{B}$⁡[Φ⁡(2170) → ηΦ] is determined to be either 0.17 or 18.6 eV at the 90% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rodeo Algorithm for Quantum Computing

We present a stochastic quantum computing algorithm that can prepare any eigenvector of a quantum Hamiltonian within a selected energy interval $\ [E-\epsilon, E+\epsilon]$. In order to reduce the spectral weight of all other eigenvectors by a suppression factor δ, the required computational effort scales as $\ O[|\log \delta|/(p \epsilon)]$, where p s the squared overlap of the initial state with the target eigenvector. The method, which we call the rodeo algorithm, uses auxiliary qubits to control the time evolution of the Hamiltonian minus some tunable parameter E . In this manner, we converge to the target eigenvector with exponential accuracy in the number of measurements. In addition to preparing eigenvectors, the method can also compute the full spectrum of the Hamiltonian. We illustrate the performance with several examples. For energy eigenvalue determination with error $\epsilon$, the computational scaling is $\ O[(\log \epsilon)^2/(p \epsilon)]$. For eigenstate preparation, the computational scaling is $\ O(\log \Delta/p)$, where $\Delta$ is the magnitude of the orthogonal component of the residual vector. The speed for eigenstate preparation is exponentially faster than that for phase estimation or adiabatic evolution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Logic Enhanced Sensing in Solid-State Spin Ensembles

We demonstrate quantum logic enhanced sensitivity for a macroscopic ensemble of solid-state, hybrid two-qubit sensors. We achieve over a factor of 30 improvement in the single-shot signal-to-noise ratio, translating to an ac magnetic field sensitivity enhancement exceeding an order of magnitude for time-averaged measurements. Using the electronic spins of nitrogen vacancy (NV) centers in diamond as sensors, we leverage the on-site nitrogen nuclear spins of the NV centers as memory qubits, in combination with homogeneous and stable bias and control fields, ensuring that all of the ~10 9 two-qubit sensors are sufficiently identical to permit global control of the NV ensemble spin states. We find quantum logic sensitivity enhancement for multiple measurement protocols with varying optimal sensing intervals, including XY8 and DROID-60 dynamical decoupling, as well as correlation spectroscopy, using an applied ac magnetic field signal. The results are independent of the nature of the target signal and broadly applicable to measurements using NV centers and other solid-state spin ensembles. Furthermore, this work provides a benchmark for macroscopic ensembles of quantum sensors that employ quantum logic or quantum error correction algorithms for enhanced sensitivity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

Can the GPM IMERG Final Product Accurately Represent MCSs’ Precipitation Characteristics over the Central and Eastern United States?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in water and energy cycles as they produce heavy rainfall and modify the radiative profile in the tropics and midlatitudes. An accurate representation of MCSs’ rainfall is therefore crucial in understanding their impact on the climate system. The V06B Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals from Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) half-hourly precipitation final product is a useful tool to study the precipitation characteristics of MCSs because of its global coverage and fine spatiotemporal resolutions. However, errors and uncertainties in IMERG should be quantified before applying it to hydrology and climate applications. This study evaluates IMERG performance on capturing and detecting MCSs’ precipitation in the central and eastern United States during a 3-yr study period against the radar-based Stage IV product. The tracked MCSs are divided into four seasons and are analyzed separately for both datasets. IMERG shows a wet bias in total precipitation but a dry bias in hourly mean precipitation during all seasons due to the false classification of nonprecipitating pixels as precipitating. These false alarm events are possibly caused by evaporation under the cloud base or the misrepresentation of MCS cold anvil regions as precipitating clouds by the algorithm. IMERG agrees reasonably well with Stage IV in terms of the seasonal spatial distribution and diurnal cycle of MCSs precipitation. A relative humidity (RH)-based correction has been applied to the IMERG precipitation product, which helps reduce the number of false alarm pixels and improves the overall performance of IMERG with respect to Stage IV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Analytical Model of Erosive Wear of BioMass Comminution Components

An analytical erosion model that relates critical process parameters (speed and impingement angle) to critical material attributes of inorganic mineral species in feedstock (density, size, aspect ratio) and substrate (hardness, toughness, and fatigue ductility) was applied to model wear in pretreatment milling operations. Results of the model were compared to experimental measurements of wear produced using the Accelerated Wear Test (AWT) rig at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Results showed that there is good agreement between predicted and measured performance, and that a quality-by-design (QbD) tool can be developed to predict component reliability based on scientific engineering principles in lieu of trial-and-error approaches.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of the Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Lensing Power Spectrum from Two Years of POLARBEAR Data

Here, we present a measurement of the gravitational lensing deflection power spectrum reconstructed with two seasons of cosmic microwave background polarization data from the Polarbear experiment. Observations were taken at 150 GHz from 2012 to 2014 and surveyed three patches of sky totaling 30 square degrees. We test the consistency of the lensing spectrum with a cold dark matter cosmology and reject the no-lensing hypothesis at a confidence of 10.9σ, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. We observe a value of A L = 1.33 ± 0.32 (statistical) ±0.02 (systematic) ±0.07 (foreground) using all polarization lensing estimators, which corresponds to a 24% accurate measurement of the lensing amplitude. Compared to the analysis of the first-year data, we have improved the breadth of both the suite of null tests and the error terms included in the estimation of systematic contamination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fabrication of a Monolithic 5-Meter Aluminum Reflector for Millimeter-Wavelength Observations of the Cosmic Microwave Background

We have demonstrated the fabrication of a monolithic, 5-meter diameter, aluminum reflector with 17.4 $\mu$m RMS surface error. The reflector was designed to avoid the problem of pickup due to scattering from panel gaps in a large, millimeter-wavelength telescope that will be used for measurements on the cosmic microwave background.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fouling modeling and prediction approach for heat exchangers using deep learning

In this article, we develop a generalized and scalable statistical model for accurate prediction of fouling resistance using commonly measured parameters of industrial heat exchangers. This prediction model is based on deep learning where a scalable algorithmic architecture learns non-linear functional relationships between a set of target and predictor variables from large number of training samples. Here, the efficacy of this modeling approach is demonstrated for predicting fouling in an analytically modeled cross-flow heat exchanger, designed for waste heat recovery from flue-gas using room temperature water. The performance results of the trained models demonstrate that the mean absolute prediction errors are under 10 –4 KW –1 for flue-gas side, water side and overall fouling resistances. The coefficients of determination (R 2 ), which characterize the goodness of fit between the predictions and observed data, are over 99%. Even under varying levels of measurement noise in the inputs, we demonstrate that predictions over an ensemble of multiple neural networks achieves better accuracy and robustness to noise. We find that the proposed deep-learning fouling prediction framework learns to follow heat exchanger flow and heat transfer physics, which we confirm using locally interpretable model agnostic explanations around randomly selected operating points. Overall, we provide a robust algorithmic framework for fouling prediction that can be generalized and scaled to various types of industrial heat exchangers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the Conditional Luminosity and Stellar Mass Functions of Galaxies by Combining the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 9, Survey Validation 3, and Year 1 Data

In this investigation, we leverage the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Imaging Surveys Data Release 9, Survey Validation 3, and Year 1 data sets to estimate the conditional luminosity functions and conditional stellar mass functions (CLFs and CSMFs) of galaxies across various halo mass bins and redshift ranges. To support our analysis, we utilize a realistic DESI mock galaxy redshift survey (MGRS) generated from a high-resolution Jiutian simulation. An extended halo-based group finder is applied to both MGRS catalogs and DESI observation. By comparing the r- and z-band luminosity functions (LFs) and stellar mass functions (SMFs) derived using both photometric and spectroscopic data, we quantified the impact of photometric redshift (photo-z) errors on the galaxy LFs and SMFs, especially in the low-redshift bin at the low-luminosity/mass end. By conducting prior evaluations of the group finder using MGRS, we successfully obtain a set of CLF and CSMF measurements from observational data. We find that at low redshift, the faint-end slopes of CLFs and CSMFs below ~10 9 h –2 L ⊙ (or h –2 M ⊙ ) evince a compelling concordance with the subhalo mass functions. After correcting the cosmic variance effect of our local Universe following Chen et al., the faint-end slopes of the LFs/SMFs turn out to also be in good agreement with the slope of the halo mass function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Online Learning of Effective Turbine Wind Speed in Wind Farms

To develop better wind farm controllers that can meet more complex objectives, methods of modeling the wind turbine wakes at low computational expense are needed. Gaussian process (GP) regression offers a computationally inexpensive framework for learning complex functions from noisy measurements with very few datapoints. In this work, an online learning approach is presented to learn the rotor-averaged wind velocity at downstream wind turbines with GPs, using the available datastream of wind field measurements and wind turbine control set-points. This framework can readily be integrated into model-based controls methods because the model a) is updated online at low computational expense, b) assumes a mathematically favorable Gaussian form, and c) explicitly quantifies the stochastic nature of the wake field so that the trade-off between exploration and exploitation, and the uncertainty in the prediction, can be utilized. We show that a GP-learned model can match true values with errors within 0.5% on average, with as few as 5 training data points.

Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving cosmological analyses of HI clustering by reducing stochastic noise

High-number-density tracers of large-scale structure, such as the HI-rich galaxies measured by 21 cm intensity mapping, have low sampling noise, making them particularly promising as cosmological probes. At large scales, this sampling noise can be subdominant to other scale-independent contributions to the power spectrum; such contributions arise from nonlinear bias, and exceed the sampling noise if at least one of the associated bias coefficients is sufficiently large. This has important consequences for cosmological constraints obtained from such tracers, since it indicates that using the power spectrum does not lead to optimal constraints even in the linear regime. In this paper, we provide a conservative estimate of the possible improvement in constraining power of a 21 cm survey if one were to use an optimal analysis strategy (such as field-level analysis), where only the true sampling noise enters the error budget. We find that improvements in uncertainties on some cosmological parameters can be as large as 50%, depending on redshift, foreground cleaning efficiency, scales used in the analysis, and instrumental noise. One byproduct of our work is measurements of bias parameters and stochasticity for neutral hydrogen in the IllustrisTNG simulation over a wide range of redshifts; we provide simple fitting formulas for these measurements. Furthermore, our results motivate further exploration of new optimal analysis techniques and provide important insights into the constraining power of current and future 21 cm surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Light in the dark forest. Part I. An efficient optimal estimator for 3D Lyman-alpha forest power spectrum

The highly anisotropic nature of the Lyman-alpha (Lyα) forest data introduces a complex survey window function that complicates the measurement of the three-dimensional power spectrum ( P 3D ). In this paper, we present the first fully optimal estimator for P 3D , which exactly deconvolves the survey window function and marginalizes contaminated modes that distort the power spectrum. Our approach adapts optimal estimator techniques developed for the 2D cosmic microwave background data to the 3D case. To achieve computational feasibility, we employ the conjugate gradient method and implement the P 3 M formalism to handle large-scale and small-scale operations separately and efficiently. We validate our estimator using Monte Carlo mocks and Gaussian simulations, demonstrating its accuracy and computational efficiency. We confirm that mode marginalization eliminates distortions arising from quasar continuum errors and delivers robust power spectrum estimation, though it also inflates errors at large scales. This first implementation works in the flat-sky case; we discuss the remaining steps needed to generalize it to the curved-sky case. This formalism offers a foundation for the Lyα forest P 3D measurements and a new path toward cosmological constraints from the Lyα forest data.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Output‐Oriented Aerosol Jet Printing Enabled by Hybrid Machine Learning

Additive manufacturing (AM) is rapidly revolutionizing modern manufacturing with recent progress in advanced printing methods and improved properties of printed materials. However, traditional AM methods are limited by their input‐oriented nature, which demands tedious trial‐and‐error tuning of printing parameters to achieve desired output properties. Here, in this work, an output‐oriented artificial intelligence‐integrated AM (AIAM) method is reported that enables an user to specify desired output properties while the printer autonomously discovers the optimal input printing parameters by integrating hybrid machine learning models and in situ measurements. Based on a predictive mapping between the input printing parameters and the output properties of interests established with <20 experiments designed by active learning, inverse design tasks are performed to intelligently generate the printing parameter settings that lead to desired outcomes using reinforcement learning. This method is demonstrated by autonomous aerosol jet printing (AJP) of conductive polymer films and achieving user‐defined electrical resistances with an ultralow error of 3.7%. The AIAM method, with its output‐oriented nature, holds the potential to significantly improve the autonomy, predictability, efficiency, and accessibility of the AM processes, which will unlock new possibilities in the autonomous and intelligent printing of a broad range of functional materials and devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

BISON fuel performance modeling optimization for experiment X447 and X447A using axial swelling and cladding strain measurements

With the recent need to qualify new reactor designs such as the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR), fuel performance calculations need to be performed to determine safety criteria of the proposed designs. In order to validate the fuel performance results obtained by a fuel performance code, BISON, for new reactor designs, legacy fuel from EBR-II and FFTF MFF with Post -Irradiation Examination (PIE) data need to be used as validation cases to benchmark models. Here in this work, BISON has been paired with the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) and IFR Materials Information System (IMIS) to supply PIE data for comparison with simulations of EBR-II experiments X447/X447A. X447/X447A were assessed by implementing models for Fuel Cladding Chemical Interaction (FCCI) within BISON and optimizing the friction coefficient between the fuel surface and the cladding, the anisotropic swelling factor, and the HT9 first thermal creep scalar (which scales the first term in the HT9 creep equation) to best match the PIE axial fuel swelling height and cladding profilometry for all pins in X447/X447A. The optimal values were found using a generic algorithm developed to select different values for the three parameters until end criteria was met and error couldn’t be reduced further. The BISON-simulated cladding profilometry was evaluated using Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE) to account for the profile shape of the cladding profilometry. Optimal values for the friction coefficient, anisotropic fuel swelling factor, and HT9 first thermal creep scalar were found to best fit the BISON simulation results to the PIE measurements found in IMIS and FIPD. Improvements to current models are suggested to account for the underprediction of fuel swelling at low burnups and the overprediction of fuel swelling at higher burnups observed for the axial fuel swelling height. Although two pins in EBR-II X447/X447A (DP70 and DP75) were known to fail due to FCCI, none of the pins simulated in BISON reached a cumulative damage fraction (CDF) above 0.008 with FCCI correlations coupled in the BISON simulations. The error estimate generated for all pins in X447/X447A using optimal values was 209 µm, which is deemed acceptable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A method for characterization of multiple dynamic constitutive parameters of FRCs

We propose a method to measure multiple dynamic material constitutive parameters of unidirectional fiber reinforced composites (FRCs) in a single experiment. Dynamic short-beam shear (DSBS) experiments were performed on a modified Kolsky compression bar, with integration of high-speed imaging and digital image correlation (DIC). The unidirectional FRCs investigated were S-2 glass fiber reinforced matrix of TGDDM-Jeffamine® D230 with monoamine functionalized partially reacted substructures (mPRS) and commercially available SC-15. Analytical solutions of normal and shear strains of a composite beam were derived based on Timoshenko beam theory, assuming material to be transversely isotropic and have different moduli in tension and compression in each principle material orientation. Tensile and compressive moduli were inversely computed through monitoring normal strain slope when specimen was constantly loaded at a speed of ~7.3 m/s within a small deflection. Non-linear shear stress-strain behavior of the composite was described via Ramberg–Osgood equation. Finite element (FE) analysis was conducted in ABAQUS, simultaneously defining via user subroutine UMAT the transverse isotropy of material, bi-modulus constitutive model, and non-linear shear stress-strain relation. The method proposed in this work was validated by comparing strain distributions computed by FE model and DIC measurements. Comparing with traditional dynamic tensile, compressive, and shear experiments on FRCs, this method significantly simplifies the specimen preparation and design of complicated gripping fixtures for multiple experiments. Here, systematic errors resulting from variations of specimen geometry and dimension, loading direction, and instrumentation are reduced, thereby providing compatible data for numerical studies on impact behavior of composites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

ab initio Sub-Mechanism Development for Cyclopentene Oxidation

To accurately predict low-temperature oxidation behavior, chemical kinetics mechanisms must contain complete reaction networks that include detailed consumption reactions of intermediates produced directly from hydroperoxyalkyl radicals, Q̇OOH, which undergo competing unimolecular reactions and bimolecular reactions with O2. Rates of chain-branching are governed by the flux between the two competing pathways, and inherently depend on temperature, pressure, and oxygen concentration. Neglect of consumption pathways for major oxidation intermediates leads to mechanism truncation error that is ameliorated by expanding the level of detail included in sub-mechanisms and employing ab initio methods for computing rates of elementary reactions and thermochemical properties of species involved. In the present work, an ab initio-derived sub-mechanism is developed using AutoMech to model the chemical kinetics of cyclopentene, a major product of cyclopentane oxidation. The ab initio sub-mechanism builds on a detailed mechanism developed using Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG) for the specific purpose of determining the extent to which replacing cyclopentene-specific reactions and species with quantum chemical computations reduces model inaccuracies resulting from mechanism truncation error. In an effort to minimize interference from other reactions present during the formation of cyclopentene from cyclopentyl + O2, providing a narrower experimental scope, the model is compared against speciation measurements from jet-stirred reactor (JSR) experiments on cyclopentene oxidation. The experiments utilize vacuum ultraviolet-absorption spectroscopy and mass spectrometry for isomer-resolved speciation of intermediates at 835 Torr from 700 – 950 K. [O2]-dependent experiments were also conducted from 0.057 – 2.01 · 1018 molecules cm–3 at 825 K to examine the influence of oxygen on species profiles. Model predictions using the ab initio-revised mechanism yielded significant improvements in species profiles for both the temperature- and [O2]-dependent measurements, owing in part to increased rates of HOȮ and H2O2 production, which underscores the influence of theoretical calculations of reaction rates involving species produced from Ṙ + O2 such as cyclopentene.

AutoMech↗