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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

3D Seismic Experimentation and Advanced Processing/Inversion Development for Investigations of the Shallow Subsurface

The work plan for this project was to develop and apply advanced seismic reflection and wide-angle processing and inversion techniques to high resolution seismic data for the shallow subsurface to seismically characterize the shallow subsurface at hazardous waste sites as an aid to containment and cleanup activities. We proposed to continue work on seismic data that we had already acquired under a previous DoE grant, as well as to acquire additional new datasets for analysis. The project successfully developed and/or implemented the use of 3D reflection seismology algorithms, waveform tomography and finite-frequency tomography using compressional and shear waves for high resolution characterization of the shallow subsurface at two waste sites. These two sites have markedly different near-surface structures, groundwater flow patterns, and hazardous waste problems. This is documented in the list of refereed documents, conference proceedings, and Rice graduate theses, listed below.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

miR-625 suppresses cell proliferation and migration by targeting HMGA1 in breast cancer

Dysregulation of microRNA contributes to the high incidence and mortality of breast cancer. Here, we show that miR-625 was frequently down-regulated in breast cancer. Decrease of miR-625 was closely associated with estrogen receptor (P = 0.004), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (P = 0.003) and clinical stage (P = 0.001). Kaplan–Meier and multivariate analyses indicated miR-625 as an independent factor for unfavorable prognosis (hazard ratio = 2.654, 95% confident interval: 1.300–5.382, P = 0.007). Re-expression of miR-625 impeded, whereas knockdown of miR-625 enhanced cell viabilities and migration abilities in breast cancer cells. HMGA1 was confirmed as a direct target of miR-625. The expressions of HMGA1 mRNA and protein were induced by miR-625 mimics, but reduced by miR-625 inhibitor. Re-introduction of HMGA1 in cells expressing miR-625 distinctly abrogated miR-625-mediated inhibition of cell growth. Taken together, our data demonstrate that miR-625 suppresses cell proliferation and migration by targeting HMGA1 and suggest miR-625 as a promising prognostic biomarker and a potential therapeutic target for breast cancer. - Highlights: • miR-625 expression was significantly decreased in breast cancer. • Decrease of miR-625 was associated with poor clinical outcomes and unfavorable overall survival. • miR-625 overexpression inhibits cell proliferation and migration in vitro. • miR-625 directly targets and suppresses the expression of HMGA1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

In the Modern Treatment Era, Is Breast Conservation Equivalent to Mastectomy in Women Younger Than 40 Years of Age? A Multi-Institution Study

Purpose: Mastectomy is often recommended for women ≤40 years of age with breast cancer, as young women were under-represented in the landmark trials comparing breast conservation therapy (BCT) to mastectomy. We hypothesized that, in the modern treatment era, BCT and mastectomy result in equivalent local control rates in young women. Methods and Materials: Breast cancer cases arising between 1975 and 2013 in women ≤40 years old were collected from the tumor registries of 2 large healthcare systems in Utah. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze freedom from locoregional recurrence (FFLR), overall survival (OS), and relapse-free survival (RFS). Results: This analysis identified 853 BCT candidates. A comparison of BCT to mastectomy after 2000 showed FFLR, RFS, and OS were all similar. Rate for FFLR at 10 years was 94.9% versus 92.1% for BCT and mastectomy, respectively (P=.57). For women whose cancer was diagnosed after 2000, who received BCT, FFLR and RFS rates were improved compared to those whose cancer was diagnosed prior to 2000 (P<.05), whereas OS (P=.46) rates were similar. Among those who underwent mastectomy, FFLR, OS, and RFS were significantly improved (P<.05) with diagnosis after 2000. Conclusions: FFLR rates for young women, ≤40 years of age, have significantly improved for BCT and mastectomy over time. If patients were treated after 2000, BCT appears to be safe and equivalent to mastectomy at 10 years in terms of FFLR, OS, and RFS.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Smoking, Alcohol, and Biliary Tract Cancer Risk: A Pooling Project of 26 Prospective Studies

Abstract Background Tobacco and alcohol are well-established risk factors for numerous cancers, yet their relationship to biliary tract cancers remains unclear. Methods We pooled data from 26 prospective studies to evaluate associations of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with biliary tract cancer risk. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with smoking and alcohol consumption were calculated. Random-effects meta-analysis produced summary estimates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Over a period of 38 369 156 person-years of follow-up, 1391 gallbladder, 758 intrahepatic bile duct, 1208 extrahepatic bile duct, and 623 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were identified. Ever, former, and current smoking were associated with increased extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers risk (eg, current vs never smokers HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.13 and 2.22, 95% CI = 1.69 to 2.92, respectively), with dose-response effects for smoking pack-years, duration, and intensity (all Ptrend < .01). Current smoking and smoking intensity were also associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer (eg, >40 cigarettes per day vs never smokers HR = 2.15, 95 % CI = 1.15 to 4.00; Ptrend = .001). No convincing association was observed between smoking and gallbladder cancer. Alcohol consumption was only associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer, with increased risk for individuals consuming five or more vs zero drinks per day (HR = 2.35, 95%CI = 1.46 to 3.78; Ptrend = .04). There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity among several cancer sites, particularly between gallbladder cancer and the other biliary tract cancers. Conclusions Smoking appears to increase the risk of developing all biliary tract cancers except gallbladder cancer. Alcohol may increase the risk of intrahepatic bile duct cancer. Findings highlight etiologic heterogeneity across the biliary tract.

McGee, Emma E.↗

Geographic, sectoral, and constituent characteristics of US off‐site manufacturing wastewater disposal

This study employs recent US Environmental Protection Agency off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal data and a socioenvironmental assessment tool for the United States to understand the characteristics of such disposal in terms of geography, major contributing sectors and pollutants, and environmental impacts. Environmental impact analyses of manufacturing are insufficient without encompassing the extended physical boundary of waste management. Our analysis reveals that off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal occurs disproportionately in populations residing in census tracts already negatively impacted by environmental hazards (impacted populations, or IPs) with 44% of transfers and 55% of Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) Hazard going to these areas, compared to their national share of 37%. Disposal hazard is concentrated in a small number of populations, with a Gini coefficient of 0.99 for RSEI Hazard. Four manufacturing sub-sectors are significant generators: Chemicals, Fabricated Metals, Primary Metals, and Transportation Equipment, with Chemicals off-site wastewater disposal largely occurring in IPs. For individual contaminants, chromium compounds and chromium represent more than 85% of the hazard but less than 10% of transfers. We explore transfer distances and waste generation and disposal hotspots, finding that the Midwest hosts a disproportionate share of off-site wastewater disposal. Further, RSEI Hazard steeply rises at shorter distances and plateaus over distances >500 miles, revealing opportunities to reduce hazard by reducing 20–500-mile transfers. Our findings strongly support targeted mitigation strategies like process substitutions, control technologies, on-site recycling and treatment, and minimizing transfer distances. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Fuchs, Heidi [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Geochemical Data Package for Performance Assessment Calculations Related to the Savannah River Site

The Savannah River Site (SRS) disposes of low-level radioactive waste (LLW) and stabilizes high-level radioactive waste (HLW) tanks in the subsurface environment. Calculations used to establish the radiological limits of these facilities are referred to as Performance Assessments (PA), Special Analyses (SA), and Composite Analyses (CA). The objective of this document is to revise existing geochemical input values used for these calculations. This work builds on earlier compilations of geochemical data (2007, 2010), referred to a geochemical data packages. This work is being conducted as part of the on-going maintenance program of the SRS PA programs that periodically updates calculations and data packages when new information becomes available. Because application of values without full understanding of their original purpose may lead to misuse, this document also provides the geochemical conceptual model, the approach used for selecting the values, the justification for selecting data, and the assumptions made to assure that the conceptual and numerical geochemical models are reasonably conservative (i.e., bias the recommended input values to reflect conditions that will tend to predict the maximum risk to the hypothetical recipient). This document provides 1088 input parameters for geochemical parameters describing transport processes for 64 elements (>740 radioisotopes) potentially occurring within eight subsurface disposal or tank closure areas: Slit Trenches (ST), Engineered Trenches (ET), Low Activity Waste Vault (LAWV), Intermediate Level (ILV) Vaults, Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas (NRCDA), Components-in-Grout (CIG) Trenches, Saltstone Facility, and Closed Liquid Waste Tanks. The geochemical parameters described here are the distribution coefficient, Kd value, apparent solubility concentration, k s value, and the cementitious leachate impact factor.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Saltstone First Quarter Calendar Year 2018 (1QCY18) Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) Results

The aqueous waste from Tank 50 (salt solution) is sampled quarterly for transfers to the Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). Salt solution is treated at SPF and disposed of in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). A SDF waste form (saltstone) was prepared in the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) from the Tank 50 Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) sample1 and Z-Area premix material for the first quarter of calendar year 2018 (1QCY18). 2,3 Results from this memorandum support Task 2: ‘Grout Leaching Analyses’ of the Task Technical Request (TTR). 2 After a 28 day cure, a sample of the SDF waste form was collected and shipped to a certified laboratory for analysis using the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). 4 The 1QCY18 saltstone sample met the South Carolina (SC) Code of Regulations for Hazardous Waste Management Regulations (HWMR) 6 1-79.261.24 and 61-79-268.48 requirements for a non-hazardous waste form with respect to Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals and Underlying Hazardous Constituents (UHCs), and also met the Saltstone WAC.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Benchmark solutions for the galactic ion transport equations: Energy and spatially dependent problems

Nontrivial benchmark solutions are developed for the galactic ion transport (GIT) equations in the straight-ahead approximation. These equations are used to predict potential radiation hazards in the upper atmosphere and in space. Two levels of difficulty are considered: (1) energy independent, and (2) spatially independent. The analysis emphasizes analytical methods never before applied to the GIT equations. Most of the representations derived have been numerically implemented and compared to more approximate calculations. Accurate ion fluxes are obtained (3 to 5 digits) for nontrivial sources. For monoenergetic beams, both accurate doses and fluxes are found. The benchmarks presented are useful in assessing the accuracy of transport algorithms designed to accommodate more complex radiation protection problems. In addition, these solutions can provide fast and accurate assessments of relatively simple shield configurations.

Ganapol, Barry D.↗

A preliminary investigation of inlet unstart effects on a high-speed civil transport concept

Vehicle motions resulting from a supersonic mixed-compression inlet unstart were examined to determine if the unstart constituted a hazard severe enough to warrant rejection of mixed-compression inlets on high-speed civil transport (HSCT) concepts. A simple kinematic analysis of an inlet unstart during cruise was performed for a Mach 2, 4, 250-passenger HSCT concept using data from a wind-tunnel test of a representative configuration with unstarted inlets simulated. A survey of previously published research on inlet unstart effects, including simulation and flight test data for the YF-12, XB-70, and Concorde aircraft, was conducted to validate the calculated results. It was concluded that, when countered by suitable automatic propulsion and flight control systems, the vehicle dynamics induced by an inlet unstart are not severe enough to preclude the use of mixed-compression inlets on an HSCT from a passenger safety standpoint. The ability to provide suitable automatic controls appears to be within the current state of the art. However, the passenger startle and discomfort caused by the noise, vibration, and cabin motions associated with an inlet unstart remain a concern.

Domack, Christopher S.↗

A Selected Operational History of the Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) for International Space Station (ISS)

The Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) has been developed jointly by Boeing Corporation, Huntsville, Alabama and Honeywell Engines & Systems, Torrance, California to meet the internal thermal control needs for the International Space Station (ISS). The ITCS provides heat removal for the critical life support systems and thermal conditioning for numerous experiment racks. The ITCS will be fitted on a number of modules on the ISS. The first US Element containing the ITCS, Node 1, was launched in December 1998. Since Node 1 does not contain a pump to circulate the fluid it was not filled with ITCS fluid until after the US Laboratory Module was installed. The second US Element module, US Laboratory Module, which contains the pumps and all the major ITCS control hardware, was launched in February 2001. The third US Element containing the ITCS, the US Airlock, was launched in July 2001. The dual loop system of the ITCS is comprised of a lowtemperature loop (LTL) and a moderate-temperature loop (MTL). Each loop has a pump package assembly (PPA), a system flow control assembly (SFCA), a threeway mixing valve (TWMV), several rack flow control assemblies (RFCA), cold plates, pressure sensors, temperature sensors, pump bypass assembly (PBA) and a heat exchanger. In addition, the MTL has an additional TWMV, a payload regeneration heat exchanger (P/RHE) and a manual flow control valve (MFCV). The LTL has a service performance and checkout unit (SPCU) heat exchanger. The two loops are linked via one loop crossover assembly (LCA) providing cross loop capabilities and a single PPA, two-loop functionality. One important parameter monitored by the ground stations and on-orbit is the amount of fluid leakage from the ITCS. ISS fluid leakage is of importance since ITCS fluid is costly to re-supply, may be difficult to clean up in zero-g, and if uncontained could lead to equipment failures and potential hazards. This paper examines the nominal leakage observed over period of a year of on-orbit operation and compares this with analysis predictions. This paper also addresses the off-nominal leakage and a fluid transfer event causing significant changes in accumulator quantity.

Patel, Vipul P.↗

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Ring, Robert W.↗

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 4 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 4 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The project objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We published a dedicated American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin volume describing initial results from the UT-GOM2-1 expedition in Sept. 2020. This is part 1 of a multi-volume commitment by AAPG to this project. We further confirmed that the natural gas in hydrate at GC-955 was formed by primary microbial processes (>76.1 %). The in-situ effective permeability hydrate-bearing sandy silts at the GC-955 reservoir ranges from 0.1 md (1.0×10-16 m2) to 2.4 md (2.4×10-15m2) in cores with 83% to 93% hydrate saturation. The intrinsic permeability (the single phase permeability) is estimated from reconstituted samples to be ~12 md (1.2×10-14 m2) to ~41 md (4.1×10-14 m2). We used observation and models to interpret that the core degradation that is found in pressure cores is due to dissociation of the methane hydrate in the outer circumference of the core and dissolution of that methane into the fresh pore water that the core is stored with. We are designing approaches to minimize this core loss in the future. We spent an enormous amount of effort to further improve the ability of the pressure coring tool (the PCTB) to pressure seal correctly. We completed upgrading the upper section of the PCTB to address poor pressure. We successful tested the modifications at Geotek’s test facility in Salt Lake City (Bench Test II). We completed a Land Test of the PCTB at the Schlumberger Cameron Test and Training Facility (CTTF). The tool did not seal in 6 out of 7 tests and we clearly demonstrated that cuttings were wedging in the ball valve assembly, keeping the ball valve from sealing. We reproduced the failure mechanism observed during the land test at Salt Lake City and confirmed the sensitivity of the ball valve assembly to grit. Geotek designed and tested 9 modifications to address this issue and the PCTB is now 100% successfully sealing in the presence of grit. Our science expedition is scheduled for spring 2022 and we are fully focused on preparing for this. UT and Ohio State completed a Shallow Hazard Assessment report for each proposed UT-GOM2-2 drilling location, pursuant to 30 CFR 250.214(f) and 250.244 (f). The Shallow Hazard Reports will accompany the UT-GOM2-2 Exploration Plan that is submitted to BOEM, and completes the geological and geophysical analysis for UT-GOM2-2 permitting efforts. We updated the UT-GOM2-2 Operations Plan (Version 1). We completed the UT-GOM2-2 Science and Sample Distribution Plan (Version 1). We evaluated the scope, budget, and schedule that would result from using a commercial vessel. We developed detailed drilling schedule, mud volume, and resource estimates. We developed a vessel specification document and a well plan, and sent these documents to prospective vessel contractors.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Radiological Performance Modeling: Platform Comparison

Zapadnoe Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Pridneprovsky Chemical Plant Ukraine: Two exposure scenarios were utilized to develop performance assessment models in GoldSim and NORMALYSA. The first scenario is an onsite worker exposed to radioactivity through external ground irradiation as well as radon and radioactive dust inhalation. The second being an offsite Resident 300 years after institutional control exposed through the ingestion of garden vegetables irrigated by contaminated ground water, ingestion of fish from Konoplyanka River, and agricultural activities in contaminated garden. NORMALYSA utilizes a modular interface to connect extensive pre-created modules to develop contaminant transport and risk assessment models for safety assessments and performance assessments at NORM and legacy sites. Developed by Facilia AB, the program was tested with the creation of the Zapadnoe model under the International Atomic Energy Agency MODARIA Il Working Group 1 (WG1). Default values are provided for input parameters where site specific data and distributions lack. Probabilistic simulations and inputs are limited to parameters with assigned Gaussian probability functions. Similar results for transient worker inhalation dose were found in comparison with the Zapadnoe GoldSim model. However, the NORMALYSA model has results larger by an order of magnitude for external radiation in the transient worker and for aquatic food ingestion, inhalation, and garden food ingestion to the resident. Performance Assessment Modeling: Radiological performance models promote good management and support in remediation and environmental decision making by optimizing radioactive waste disposal site performance. a performance assessment model of the Zapadnoe uranium mill tailings site and a model for calculating authorized limits at Los Alamos National Laboratory are created to demonstrate and highlight the respective capabilities of three modeling platforms: GoldSim, NORMALYSA, and RESRAD-Onsite. GoldSim is a general-purpose modeling platform with the ability to simulate site-specific FT radionuclide transport and risk assessment using a graphical interface to create and link elements that act as indivisible building blocks of the model. The Zapadnoe performance assessment model created in GoldSim is composed of input parameters collected from site specific parameters from WG1 as well as standard assumptions seen in the Generic PA Model from Neptune and Company. The multivariate Zapadnoe simulation contains both deterministic and probabilistic simulation capabilities with the ability to quantitatively represent the uncertainty and associated risks of the site via the Monte Carlo simulation method. Model parameters, documentation, and assumptions are built directly into the model creating a transparent, reproducible, and more purposeful site specific model. To demonstrate this, an ingestion of water pathway was included in addition to the exposure pathways included in the NORMALYSA model. GoldSim offers a wide variety of probability distributions to choose from as well as many tools to visualize the uncertainty of the models and explore which pathways and radionuclides dominate dose. In contrast to the NORMALYSA model, the GoldSim model uses dynamic simulation to calculate tritium concentrations. Authorized limits support the evaluation of radiological health effects from radionuclides present in bulk contaminated soil in order to assist in the process of clearing land for release under different uses. Calculations of authorized limits in RESRAD-Onsite and GoldSim models support the evaluation for 15 radionuclides using a residential exposure scenario, indoor and outdoor inhalation of dust and vapor phase radionuclides (tritium), incidental soil ingestion, and ingestion grown fruits and Vegetables. RESRAD-Onsite, developed by Argonne National Laboratory is a dedicated computer code for calculating radiation doses and cancer risks to an individual located on top of radioactively contaminated soils. It can also be used to provide guidelines for deriving radionuclide soil levels corresponding to a specific dose criterion. The menu driven user interface facilitates selection of radionuclides and soil concentrations, as well as defines parameter values related to materials, environmental factors, and exposure pathways. The program contains radionuclide-specific data such as dose conversion factors and risk coefficients, as well as soil-water partition coefficients and transfer factors for biotic media. The GoldSim model successfully emulates the RESRAD-Onsite code using identical radiological decay and ingrowth factors, radiation dose conversion factors, and other input parameters. DE EEDE ETS Each model supports dynamic modeling of radionuclide ingrowth and decay over time, and integrate this capability with the transport of radionuclides in the environment via processes such as advection and/or diffusion in fluids, or within porous solid media, The applicability of each program is heavily dependent on project context. In the context of developing Authorized Limits, RESRAD-Onsite may be a more desirable option as it was developed for this particular application. For simple disposal or legacy sites or sites that do not need site-specific model structure, NORMALYSA may be a desirable modeling platform, GoldSim can be used to model any problem for which RESRAD or NORMALYSA is applicable, but its strength lies in its flexibility, analytical, and probabilistic capabilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Protecting Crew and Surface Systems with a Long-Duration Lunar Safe Haven

NASA’s Artemis program will send astronauts to the lunar surface for extended mission durations throughout the 2030s, with a focus on sustainability and extensibility for Mars exploration, as described in NASA’s “Artemis Plan”. However, NASA must place more emphasis on protecting both the crew and the exploration surface systems if they hope to achieve long-duration sustainability on the lunar surface. It is now reasonably achievable with excavation, construction, and autonomy technologies to achieve a significant level of protection that architectures have been unable to achieve to date. The Lunar Safe Haven (LSH) was proposed to protect astronauts, electronics, and other surface exploration systems from the hazards of the lunar environment, including radiation, micrometeoroid strikes, lunar dust, thermal vacuum, etc. During the study, Level Zero Requirements were developed for the LSH, and a decision analysis framework was baselined to evaluate concepts. The LSH Study also performed a comprehensive trade study, during which it identified numerous alternatives for establishing and maintaining a safe haven shelter on the lunar surface. This paper reviews the products developed during the study and presents the final recommendations.

radiation shielding↗

Characterization of Microgravity Effects on Bone Structure and Strength Using Fractal Analysis

Protecting humans against extreme environmental conditions requires a thorough understanding of the pathophysiological changes resulting from the exposure to those extreme conditions. Knowledge of the degree of medical risk associated with the exposure is of paramount importance in the design of effective prophylactic and therapeutic measures for space exploration. Major health hazards due o musculoskeletal systems include the signs and symptoms of hypercalciuria, lengthy recovery of lost bone tissue after flight, the possibility of irreversible trabecular bone loss, the possible effect of calcification in the soft tissues, and the possible increase in fracture potential. In this research, we characterize the trabecular structure with the aid of fractal analysis. Our research to relate local trabecular structural information to microgravity conditions is an important initial step in understanding the effect of microgravity and countermeasures on bone condition and strength. The proposed research is also closely linked with Osteoporosis and will benefit the general population.

Acharya, Raj S.↗

Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Supercooled Liquid Water Content Instrument Analysis and Winter 2014 Data with Comparisons to the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System and Pilot Reports

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed a system for remotely detecting the hazardous conditions leading to aircraft icing in flight, the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS). Newly developed, weather balloon-borne instruments have been used to obtain in-situ measurements of supercooled liquid water during March 2014 to validate the algorithms used in the NIRSS. A mathematical model and a processing method were developed to analyze the data obtained from the weather balloon soundings. The data from soundings obtained in March 2014 were analyzed and compared to the output from the NIRSS and pilot reports.

aviation meterology↗