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NASA NTRS2012

Celestial Reference Frames at Multiple Radio Wavelengths

In 1997 the IAU adopted the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) built from S/X VLBI data. In response to IAU resolutions encouraging the extension of the ICRF to additional frequency bands, VLBI frames have been made at 24, 32, and 43 gigahertz. Meanwhile, the 8.4 gigahertz work has been greatly improved with the 2009 release of the ICRF-2. This paper discusses the motivations for extending the ICRF to these higher radio bands. Results to date will be summarized including evidence that the high frequency frames are rapidly approaching the accuracy of the 8.4 gigahertz ICRF-2. We discuss current limiting errors and prospects for the future accuracy of radio reference frames. We note that comparison of multiple radio frames is characterizing the frequency dependent systematic noise floor from extended source morphology and core shift. Finally, given Gaia's potential for high accuracy optical astrometry, we have simulated the precision of a radio-optical frame tie to be approximately10-15 microarcseconds ((1-sigma) (1-standard deviation), per component).

quasars↗

DOE OSTI2023

A superconducting nanowire binary shift register

We present a design for a superconducting nanowire binary shift register, which stores digital states in the form of circulating supercurrents in high-kinetic-inductance loops. Adjacent superconducting loops are connected with nanocryotrons, three-terminal electrothermal switches, and fed with an alternating two-phase clock to synchronously transfer the digital state between the loops. A two-loop serial-input shift register was fabricated with thin-film NbN and a bit error rate of less than 10 –4 was achieved, when operated at a maximum clock frequency of 83 MHz and in an out-of-plane magnetic field of up to 6 mT. A shift register based on this technology offers an integrated solution for low-power readout of superconducting nanowire single photon detector arrays and is capable of interfacing directly with room-temperature electronics and operating unshielded in high magnetic field environments.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2014

Self-Raman Nd:YVO4 Laser and Electro-Optic Technology for Space-Based Sodium Lidar Instrument

We are developing a laser and electro-optic technology to remotely measure Sodium (Na) by adapting existing lidar technology with space flight heritage. The developed instrumentation will serve as the core for the planning of an Heliophysics mission targeted to study the composition and dynamics of Earth's mesosphere based on a spaceborne lidar that will measure the mesospheric Na layer. We present performance results from our diode-pumped tunable Q-switched self-Raman c-cut Nd:YVO4 laser with intra-cavity frequency doubling that produces multi-watt 589 nm wavelength output. The c-cut Nd:YVO4 laser has a fundamental wavelength that is tunable from 1063-1067 nanometers. A CW (Continuous Wave) External Cavity diode laser is used as a injection seeder to provide single-frequency grating tunable output around 1066 nanometers. The injection-seeded self-Raman shifted Nd:VO4 laser is tuned across the sodium vapor D2 line at 589 nanometers. We will review technologies that provide strong leverage for the sodium lidar laser system with strong heritage from the Ice Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS). These include a space-qualified frequency-doubled 9 watts-at-532-nanometer wavelength Nd:YVO4 laser, a tandem interference filter temperature-stabilized fused-silica-etalon receiver and high-bandwidth photon-counting detectors.

Krainak, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Self-Raman Nd:YVO4 Laser and Electro-Optic Technology for Space-Based Sodium Lidar Instrument

Krainak, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Hydrogen broadening and collision-induced line shifts of methane at 4200/cm

Many of the lines of the nu1 + nu4 and nu3 + nu4 bands of methane in the vicinity of 4200/cm have been assigned and are reported in the HITRAN data-base which is commonly used for atmospheric transmission calculations in the IR. The collision-induced broadening coefficients of hydrogen for more than 200 of these lines are reported. Also, by using the water-vapor lines which occur in the spectra as calibration marks, the frequencies of the broadened lines are determined. This permitted the collision-induced line shifts to be measured for lines sufficiently isolated from interfering blends: all of the shifts which could be reliably determined in this way were negative.

Margolis, Jack S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Phase shifter technology assessment - Prospects and applications

Capabilities and limitations of MMIC phase shifter technology at microwave and millimeter wave frequencies are reviewed. MMIC-based phase arrays make it possible to integrate active elements at the array face, i.e., to incorporate transmit power amplifiers and/or low noise amplifiers at each antenna element. Active elements make it possible to increase power efficiency and reliability and provide graceful degradation. Monolithic integration of the various transmit/receive functions including phase shifting is considered to be feasible through at least the lower millimeter-wave frequency range (about 30-100 GHz). MMIC integration also allows more flexibility in array design including those that are intended for airborne conformal applications.

Sokolov, Vladimir↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstration of Frequency-Scanning Burst-mode Filtered Rayleigh Scattering for Multi-Parameter Gas-Phase Measurements

Filtered Rayleigh scattering (FRS) is a diagnostic technique used for measurements of macroscopic properties of a gas. The FRS signal is passed through a narrow bandwidth molecular filter, commonly gaseous iodine, to measure the broadening and Doppler-shift of the scattering light from the molecules of the gas flow. However, in single-frequency, intensity-based approaches, the effects of pressure, temperature, and velocity can be difficult to deconvolve. To overcome this challenge, frequency-scanning FRS has been used to quasi-spectrally resolve the signal. In this work, a frequency-scanned, burst-mode laser was used to perform scanning FRS in an underexpanded jet to measure temperature, pressure, and radial velocity at measurement rates up to 1 kHz which is ~100,000 times faster than prior implementations of scanning FRS.

filtered Rayleigh scattering↗

NASA NTRS2021

Methodology to Assess the Changing Risk of Yield Failure Due to Heat and Drought Stress Under Climate Change

While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Climate risk assessment↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effect of surface roughness on liquid property measurements using mechanically oscillating sensors

The resonant frequency and quality factor Q of a liquid immersed magnetoelastic sensor are shown to shift linearly with the liquid viscosity and density product. Measurements using different grade oils, organic chemicals, and glycerol-water mixtures show that the surface roughness of the sensor in combination with the molecular size of the liquid play important roles in determining measurement sensitivity, which can be controlled through adjusting the surface roughness of the sensor surface. A theoretical model describing the sensor resonant frequency and quality factor Q as a function of liquid properties is developed using a novel equivalent circuit approach. Experimental results are in agreement with theory when the liquid molecule size is larger than the average surface roughness. However, when the molecular size of the liquid is small relative to the surface roughness features molecules are trapped, and the trapped molecules act both as a mass load and viscous load; the result is higher viscous damping of the sensor than expected. c2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1980

A new approach to active control of rotorcraft vibration

A state-variable feedback approach is utilized for active control of rotorcraft vibration. Fuselage accelerations are passed through undamped second-order filters with resonant frequencies at N/rev. The resulting outputs contain predominantly the N/rev vibration components, phase shifted by 180 deg, and are used to drive the blade pitch to cancel this component of fuselage vibration. The linear-quadratic-gaussian (LQG) method is used to design a feedback control system utilizing these filtered accelerations. The design is based on a nine-degree-of-freedom linear model of the Rotor System Research Aircraft (RSRA) in hover and is evaluated on a nonlinear blade-element simulation of the RSRA for this flight condition. The system is shown to essentially eliminate vibrations at N/rev in all axes. The required blade-pitch amplitude is within the capability of conventional actuators at the N/rev frequency.

Gupta, N. K.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the electron density and temperature gradient on drift-wave turbulence in the Large Plasma Device

In this paper we present an experimental study of edge turbulence in the Large Plasma Device at UCLA. We utilize a scan of discharge power and prefill pressure (neutral density) to show experimentally that turbulent density fluctuations decrease with decreasing density gradient, as predicted for resistive drift-wave turbulence (RDWT). As expected for RDWT, we observe that the cross-phase between the density and potential fluctuations is close to 0. Moreover, the addition of an electron temperature gradient leads to a reduction in the amplitude of the density fluctuations, as expected for RDWT. However, counter to theoretical expectations, we find that the potential fluctuations do not follow the same trends as the density fluctuations for changes either in density gradients or the addition of a temperature gradient. The disconnect between the density and potential fluctuations is connected to changes in the parallel flows as a result of differences in the prefill pressure, i.e. neutral density. Further analysis of the density and potential fluctuation spectra show that the electron temperature gradient reduces the low frequency fluctuations up to $10 \,{\rm kHz}$ and the introduction of a temperature gradient leads to an unexpected ${\sim }{\rm \pi}$ shift of the density–potential cross-phase at ${\sim }10\,{\rm kHz}$ , while maintaining the typical resistive drift-wave cross-phase at lower frequencies. These experiments partly confirm existing knowledge on resistive drift-wave turbulence, but also introduce new observations that indicate a need for dedicated nonlinear three-dimensional turbulence simulations that include neutrals.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photodissociation and Infrared Spectroscopy of Uranium–Nitrogen Cation Complexes

Laser vaporization of uranium in a pulsed supersonic expansion of nitrogen is used to produce complexes of the form U + (N 2 ) n (n = 1–8). These ions are mass selected in a reflectron time-of-flight spectrometer and studied with visible and UV laser fixed-frequency photodissociation and with tunable infrared laser photodissociation spectroscopy. The dissociation patterns and spectroscopy of U + (N 2 ) n indicate that N 2 ligands are intact molecules and that there is no insertion chemistry resulting in UN + or NUN + . Fixed frequency photodissociation at 532 and 355 nm indicate that the U + –N 2 bond dissociation energy varies little with changing coordination. The photon energy and the number of ligands eliminated allow an estimate of the average U + –N 2 dissociation energy of 12 kcal/mol. Infrared bands are observed for these complexes near the N–N stretch vibration via elimination of N 2 molecules. These resonances are observed to be shifted about 130 cm–1 to the red from the free-N 2 frequency for complexes with n = 3–8. Density functional theory indicates that U + is most stable in the sextet state in these complexes and that N 2 molecules bind in end-on configurations. Furthermore, the fully coordinated complex is predicted to be U + (N 2 ) 8 , which has a cubic structure. The vibrational frequencies predicted by theory are consistently lower than those in the experiment, independent of the isomeric structure or spin state of the complexes. Despite its failure to reproduce the infrared spectra, theory provides an average U + –N 2 dissociation energy of 11.8 ± 0.5 kcal/mol, in good agreement with the value from the experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Aqua-planet Experiment (APE): Response to Changed Meridional SST Profile

This paper explores the sensitivity of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations to changes in the meridional distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). The simulations are for an aqua-planet, a water covered Earth with no land, orography or sea- ice and with specified zonally symmetric SST. Simulations from 14 AGCMs developed for Numerical Weather Prediction and climate applications are compared. Four experiments are performed to study the sensitivity to the meridional SST profile. These profiles range from one in which the SST gradient continues to the equator to one which is flat approaching the equator, all with the same maximum SST at the equator. The zonal mean circulation of all models shows strong sensitivity to latitudinal distribution of SST. The Hadley circulation weakens and shifts poleward as the SST profile flattens in the tropics. One question of interest is the formation of a double versus a single ITCZ. There is a large variation between models of the strength of the ITCZ and where in the SST experiment sequence they transition from a single to double ITCZ. The SST profiles are defined such that as the equatorial SST gradient flattens, the maximum gradient increases and moves poleward. This leads to a weakening of the mid-latitude jet accompanied by a poleward shift of the jet core. Also considered are tropical wave activity and tropical precipitation frequency distributions. The details of each vary greatly between models, both with a given SST and in the response to the change in SST. One additional experiment is included to examine the sensitivity to an off-equatorial SST maximum. The upward branch of the Hadley circulation follows the SST maximum off the equator. The models that form a single precipitation maximum when the maximum SST is on the equator shift the precipitation maximum off equator and keep it centered over the SST maximum. Those that form a double with minimum on the equatorial maximum SST shift the double structure off the equator, keeping the minimum over the maximum SST. In both situations only modest changes appear in the shifted profile of zonal average precipitation. When the upward branch of the Hadley circulation moves into the hemisphere with SST maximum, the zonal average zonal, meridional and vertical winds all indicate that the Hadley cell in the other hemisphere dominates.

AGCM↗

NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2016

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

NASA NTRS1985

Shuttle S-band communications technical concepts

Using the S-band communications system, shuttle orbiter can communicate directly with the Earth via the Ground Spaceflight Tracking and Data Network (GSTDN) or via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The S-band frequencies provide the primary links for direct Earth and TDRSS communications during all launch and entry/landing phases of shuttle missions. On orbit, S-band links are used when TDRSS Ku-band is not available, when conditions require orbiter attitudes unfavorable to Ku-band communications, or when the payload bay doors are closed. the S-band communications functional requirements, the orbiter hardware configuration, and the NASA S-band communications network are described. The requirements and implementation concepts which resulted in techniques for shuttle S-band hardware development discussed include: (1) digital voice delta modulation; (2) convolutional coding/Viterbi decoding; (3) critical modulation index for phase modulation using a Costas loop (phase-shift keying) receiver; (4) optimum digital data modulation parameters for continuous-wave frequency modulation; (5) intermodulation effects of subcarrier ranging and time-division multiplexing data channels; (6) radiofrequency coverage; and (7) despreading techniques under poor signal-to-noise conditions. Channel performance is reviewed.

Seyl, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effect of frequency detuning on Brillouin lasing in microcavities

We have theoretically investigated Brillouin lasing in microcavities in the case when the Brillouin shift and the intermode spacing of the microcavity do not coincide. It is shown that, despite the rise of the lasing threshold, a significant increase in the Brillouin signal intensity can be achieved in this case compared to the resonance one. A necessary condition for this effect is to select an optimal value of detuning of the pump radiation frequency from the frequency of the corresponding microcavity mode. The result of increasing the lasing threshold is also a narrowing of the Brillouin signal lasing range in the nonresonant case, which leads to a decrease in the signal noise level provided the detuning value is optimally selected. Analytical calculations are confirmed by the results of numerical modelling. (paper)

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗