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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating the Effect of Large‐Scale Vertical Motion on Convection Through Convective Mass Flux Adjustment in E3SMv2

Abstract Recent observational studies suggest that the large‐scale dynamical forcing (vertical motion) plays important roles in deep convection development. In this study we propose a convective mass flux adjustment (MAdj) approach to represent the dynamical effects of large‐scale vertical motion on convection in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). With MAdj, convection is enhanced (suppressed) when there is large‐scale ascending (descending) motion at the planetary boundary layer top. The coupling of convection with large‐scale circulation significantly improves the simulation of climate variability in E3SMv2 across multiple scales from the diurnal cycle, convectively coupled equatorial waves, to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). The standard E3SMv2 tends to simulate overly weak diurnal amplitude of precipitation and overly weak variance of convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin and westward inertio‐gravity (WIG) waves. It also fails to simulate the essential characteristics of the MJO: continuous eastward propagation. With MAdj, the amplitude of diurnal cycle of precipitation is systematically increased and its probability density distribution is much closer to observations. The MAdj can also simulate more realistic eastward propagation of the MJO and much stronger convectively coupled Kelvin and WIG waves. Moreover, the MAdj approach slightly improves the climatology simulations in precipitation, cloud, radiation, circulation, temperature, and moisture fields, with overall root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of major climatological fields reduced by about 2%. The MAdj approach suppresses excessive grid‐scale precipitation, reducing precipitation wet biases over South China Sea, Philippine Sea, Himalayas, and South Pacific Convergence Zone in western Pacific in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

The 14 month wind stressed residual circulation (pole tide) in the North Sea

From published research it is known that a quasi-periodic 14 month atmospheric pressure oscillation of a few tenths of a millibar exists in the region of the North and Baltic Seas. At some time in the cycle the associated wind stress has a westerly component that drives a circulation in the North Sea. The results of a dynamical model and comparisons with several North Sea residual circulation studies show that a large sea level gradient results along the Dutch coast. It is this feature that has been referred to as the enhanced pole tide. The dynamical similarity of this pole tide in the North and Baltic Seas to the annual and seasonal wind forced circulations is considered. It is inferred that the large deviations of the pole tide from equilibrium at coastal stations are the result of this sea level set up forces by the 14 month wind stress cycle.

Oconnor, W. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Small Particle Response to Fluid Motion using Tethered Particles to Simulate Microgravity

This paper reports on ground based work conducted to support the Spaceflight Definition project SHIVA (Spaceflight Holography Investigation in a Virtual Apparatus). SHIVA will advance our understanding of the movement of a particle in a fluid. Gravity usually dominates the equations of motion, but in microgravity as well as on earth other terms can become important. Before two members of our team found an analytical solution of the equations, numerical methods and/or neglecting terms were required. The general solution predicts that the usually neglected history term becomes important when the characteristic viscous time is in the same order as the vibration period and peaks when the two times are equal. In this case three force terms, the Stokes drag, the added mass, and the history drag must all be included in predicting particle movement. We also developed diagnostic recording methods using holography to save all of the particle field data, allowing the experiment to essentially be transferred from space back to earth in what we call the "virtual apparatus". Using state-of-the-art methods in holography we will quantify the three-dimensional motion of sets of particles, allowing us to test and apply the new analytical solutions. The motion of particles up to 4 mm in diameter in a fluid that oscillates at frequencies up to 100 Hz with amplitudes up to 200 microns is being examined. Ground studies to support the flight development program have employed various schemes to simulate microgravity. One of the most reliable and meaningful methods uses spheres tethered to a fine hair suspended in the fluid. We have also investigated particles with nearly neutral buoyancy. Recordings are made at the peak amplitudes of vibration of the cell providing a measure of the ratio of fluid to particle amplitude. The experiment requires precise location of the particle at the time of recording. The hologram of the particle provides microscopic images of the particle that are used for finding the position with an accuracy of a few microns. To make the experiment more versatile, the spaceflight system will record holograms both on film and electronically. The electronic holograms can be downlinked providing real time data. Results of the ground experiments, the flight experiment design, and data analysis procedures are reported.

Trolinger, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Small Particle Response to Fluid Motion using Tethered Particles to Simulate Microgravity

This paper reports on ground based work conducted to support the Spaceflight Definition project SHIVA (Spaceflight Holography Investigation in a Virtual Apparatus). SHIVA will advance our understanding of the movement of a particle in a fluid. Gravity usually dominates the equations of motion, but in microgravity as well as on earth other terms can become important. Before two members of our team found an analytical solution of the equations, numerical methods and/or neglecting terms were required. The general solution predicts that the usually neglected history term becomes important when the characteristic viscous time is in the same order as the vibration period and peaks when the two times are equal. In this case three force terms, the Stokes drag, the added mass, and the history drag must all be included in predicting particle movement. We also developed diagnostic recording methods using holography to save all of the particle field data, allowing the experiment to essentially be transferred from space back to earth in what we call the "virtual apparatus". Using state-of-the-art methods in holography we will quantify the three-dimensional motion of sets of particles, allowing us to test and apply the new analytical solutions. The motion of particles up to 4 mm in diameter in a fluid that oscillates at frequencies up to 100 Hz with amplitudes up to 200 microns is being examined. Ground studies to support the flight development program have employed various schemes to simulate microgravity. One of the most reliable and meaningful methods uses spheres tethered to a fine hair suspended in the fluid. We have also investigated particles with nearly neutral buoyancy. Recordings are made at the peak amplitudes of vibration of the cell providing a measure of the ratio of fluid to particle amplitude. The experiment requires precise location of the particle at the time of recording. The hologram of the particle provides microscopic images of the particle that are used for finding the position with an accuracy of a few microns. To make the experiment more versatile, the spaceflight system will record holograms both on film and electronically. The electronic holograms can be downlinked providing real time data. Results of the ground experiments, the flight experiment design, and data analysis procedures are reported.

Trolinger, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Potential of Spaced-based High-Energy Neutrino Measurements via the Airshower Cherenkov Signal

Future space-based experiments, such as (Orbiting Wide-angle Light Collectors (OWL) and JEM-EUSO, view large atmospheric and terrestrial neutrino targets. With energy thresholds slightly above 10(exp 19) eV for observing airshowers via air fluorescence, the potential for observing the cosmogenic neutrino flux associated with the GZK effect is limited. However, the forward Cherenkov signal associated with the airshower can be observed at much lower energies. A simulation was developed to determine the Cherenkov signal strength and spatial extent at low-Earth orbit for upward-moving airshowers. A model of tau neutrino interactions in the Earth was employed to determine the event rate of interactions that yielded a tau lepton which would induce an upward-moving airshower observable by a space-based instrument. The effect of neutrino attenuation by the Earth forces the viewing of the Earth's limb to observe the vT-induced Cherenkov airshower signal at above the OWL Cherenkov energy threshold of approximately 10(exp 16.5) eV for limb-viewed events. Furthermore, the neutrino attenuation limits the effective terrestrial neutrino target area to approximately 3 x 10(exp 5) square km at 10(exp 17) eV, for an orbit of 1000 km and an instrumental full Field-of-View of 45 deg. This translates into an observable cosmogenic neutrino event rate of approx. l/year based upon two different models of the cosmogenic neutrino flux, assuming neutrino oscillations and a 10% duty cycle for observation.

Krizmanic, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Programmable soft valves for digital and analog control

In soft devices, complex actuation sequences and precise force control typically require hard electronic valves and microcontrollers. Existing designs for entirely soft pneumatic control systems are capable of either digital or analog operation, but not both, and are limited by speed of actuation, range of pressure, time required for fabrication, or loss of power through pull-down resistors. Using the nonlinear mechanics intrinsic to structures composed of soft materials—in this case, by leveraging membrane inversion and tube kinking—two modular soft components are developed: a piston actuator and a bistable pneumatic switch. These two components combine to create valves capable of analog pressure regulation, simplified digital logic, controlled oscillation, nonvolatile memory storage, linear actuation, and interfacing with human users in both digital and analog formats. Three demonstrations showcase the capabilities of systems constructed from these valves: 1) a wearable glove capable of analog control of a soft artificial robotic hand based on input from a human user’s fingers, 2) a human-controlled cushion matrix designed for use in medical care, and 3) an untethered robot which travels a distance dynamically programmed at the time of operation to retrieve an object. This work illustrates pathways for complementary digital and analog control of soft robots using a unified valve design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Equatorial Kelvin wave variability during 1992 and 1993

Temperature and ozone data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) are used to analyze the variability of Kelvin wave activity during the first two years of the UARS mission. The analysis is carried out using the asynoptic mapping technique. Time frequency plots for zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2, at two heights representing the middle stratosphere and the stratopause, respectively, are used to analyze the temporal variability of the waves, and its possible relationship to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO). Kelvin wave activity reaches a maximum during the solstice seasons and almost disappears during the equinoxes, in agreement with previous studies. Eastward propagating variance is estimated for wave periods from 4 to 20 days, at all UARS pressure surfaces currently available for MLS. The semiannual modulation of variance is observed to extend down to the lower limits of the height ranges of the temperature and ozone retrievals. Furthermore, a superposed QBO modulation is detected up to the stratopause. Comparison between the variance in eastward propagating waves and the mean zonal wind shows a possible participation of kelvin waves in the forcing of the QBO. At the stratopause the role of Kelvin waves in forcing the SAO appears to be limited, in agreement with previous results. Between the 21-hPa and 4.6-hPa surfaces there appears to be a transition zone where there is no clear relationship between Kelvin wave activity and mean zonal flow acceleration.

Canziani, Pablo O.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dual-mass vibratory rate gyroscope with suppressed translational acceleration response and quadrature-error correction capability

A microfabricated vibratory rate gyroscope to measure rotation includes two proof-masses mounted in a suspension system anchored to a substrate. The suspension has two principal modes of compliance, one of which is driven into oscillation. The driven oscillation combined with rotation of the substrate about an axis perpendicular to the substrate results in Coriolis acceleration along the other mode of compliance, the sense-mode. The sense-mode is designed to respond to Coriolis accelerationwhile suppressing the response to translational acceleration. This is accomplished using one or more rigid levers connecting the two proof-masses. The lever allows the proof-masses to move in opposite directions in response to Coriolis acceleration. The invention includes a means for canceling errors, termed quadrature error, due to imperfections in implementation of the sensor. Quadrature-error cancellation utilizes electrostatic forces to cancel out undesired sense-axis motion in phase with drive-mode position.

Clark, William A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling and Observations of the Response of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere, Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-1 anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone, This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years, An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region, We will show targeted comparisons with SHADOZ ozonesondes over these regions to provide insight into the vertical structure. Also, comparisons with NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) instruments and other appropriate data sets will be shown. In addition, the water vapor response to ENSO will be compared to help illuminate its role relative to dynamics in impacting ozone concentrations. These results indicate that the tropospheric ozone response to ENSO is potentially a very useful chemistry-climate diagnostic and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS1994

A mechanism for magnetospheric substorms

Energy-principle analysis performed on two-dimensional, self-consistent solutions for magnetospheric convection indicates that the magnetosphere is unstable to isobaric (yet still frozen-in) fluctuations of plasma-sheet flux tubes. Normally, pdV work associated with compression maintains stability of the inward/outward oscillating normal mode. However, if Earth's ionosphere can provide sufficient mass flux, isobaric expansion of flux tubes can occur. The growth of a field-aligned potential drop in the near-Earth, midnight portion of the plasma sheet, associated with upward field-aligned currents responsible for the Harang discontinuity, redistributes plasma along field lines in a manner that destabilizes the normal mode. The growth of this unstable mode results in an out-of-equilibrium situation near the inner edge. When this occurs over a downtail extent comparable to the half-thickness of the plasma sheet, collapse ensues and forces thinning of the plasma sheet whereby conditions favorable to reconnection occur. This scenario for substorm onset is consistent with observed upward fluxes of ions, parallel potential drops, and observations of substorm onset. These observations include near Earth onset, pseudobreakups, the substorm current wedge, and local variations of plasma-sheet thickness.

Erickson, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Response of Tropospheric Ozone to ENSO in Observations and a Chemistry-Climate Simulation

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability on interannual time scales. ENSO appears to extend its influence into the chemical composition of the tropical troposphere. Recent results have revealed an ENSO induced wave-l anomaly in observed tropical tropospheric column ozone. This results in a dipole over the western and eastern tropical Pacific, whereby differencing the two regions produces an ozone anomaly with an extremely high correlation to the Nino 3.4 Index. We have successfully reproduced this result using the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 25 years. An examination of the modeled ozone field reveals the vertical contributions of tropospheric ozone to the column over the western and eastern Pacific region. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASA's Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), and the Tropospheric Emissions Spectrometer (TES) to provide insight into the vertical structure of ozone changes. The tropospheric ozone response to ENSO could be a useful chemistry-climate model evaluation tool and should be considered in future modeling assessments.

Oman, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Meeting the Grand Challenge of Protecting Astronauts Health: Electrostatic Active Space Radiation Shielding for Deep Space Missions

This report describes the research completed during 2011 for the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) project. The research is motivated by the desire to safely send humans in deep space missions and to keep radiation exposures within permitted limits. To this end current material shielding, developed for low earth orbit missions, is not a viable option due to payload and cost penalties. The active radiation shielding is the path forward for such missions. To achieve active space radiation shielding innovative large lightweight gossamer space structures are used. The goal is to deflect enough positive ions without attracting negatively charged plasma and to investigate if a charged Gossamer structure can perform charge deflections without significant structural instabilities occurring. In this study different innovative configurations are explored to design an optimum active shielding. In addition, to establish technological feasibility experiments are performed with up to 10kV of membrane charging, and an electron flux source with up to 5keV of energy and 5mA of current. While these charge flux energy levels are much less than those encountered in space, the fundamental coupled interaction of charged Gossamer structures with the ambient charge flux can be experimentally investigated. Of interest are, will the EIMS remain inflated during the charge deflections, and are there visible charge flux interactions. Aluminum coated Mylar membrane prototype structures are created to test their inflation capability using electrostatic charging. To simulate the charge flux, a 5keV electron emitter is utilized. The remaining charge flux at the end of the test chamber is measured with a Faraday cup mounted on a movable boom. A range of experiments with this electron emitter and detector were performed within a 30x60cm vacuum chamber with vacuum environment capability of 10-7 Torr. Experiments are performed with the charge flux aimed at the electrostatically inflated membrane structure (EIMS) in both charged and uncharged configurations. The amount of charge shielding behind and around the EIMS was studied for different combinations of membrane structure voltages and electron energies. Both passive and active shielding were observed, with active shielding capable of deflecting nearly all incoming electrons. The pattern of charge distribution around the structure was studied as well as the stability of the structures in the charge flow. The charge deflection experiments illustrate that the EIMS remain inflated during charge deflection, but will experience small amplitude oscillations. Investigations were performed to determine a potential cause of the vibrations. It is postulated these vibrations are due to the charge flux causing local membrane charge distribution changes. As the membrane structure inflation pressure is changed, the shape responds, and causes the observed sustained vibration. Having identified this phenomenon is important when considering electrostatically inflated membrane structures (EIMS) in a space environment. Additionally, this project included a study of membrane material impacts, specifically the impact of membrane thickness. Extremely thin materials presented new challenges with vacuum preparation techniques and rapid charging. The thinner and lighter membrane materials were successfully inflated using electrostatic forces in a vacuum chamber. However, care must be taken when varying the potentials of such lighter structures as the currents can cause local heating and melting of the very thin membranes. Lastly, a preliminary analysis is performed to study rough order of magnitude power requirements for using EIMS for radiation shielding. The EIMS power requirement becomes increasingly more challenging as the spacecraft voltage is increased. As a result, the emphasis is on the deflection of charges away from the spacecraft rather than totally stopping them. This significantly alleviates the initial power requirements. With modest technological development(s) active shielding is emerging to be a viable option.

Radiation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Towards a Realistic Pulsar Magnetosphere

We present the magnetic and electric field structures as well as the currents ami charge densities of pulsar magnetospberes which do not obey the ideal condition, E(raised dot) B = O. Since the acceleration of particles and the production of radiation requires the presence of an electric field component parallel to the magnetic field, E(sub ll) the structure of non-Ideal pulsar magnetospheres is intimately related to the production of pulsar radiation. Therefore, knowledge of the structure of non-Ideal pulsar maglletospheres is important because their comparison (including models for t he production of radiation) with observations will delineate the physics and the parameters underlying the pulsar radiation problem. We implement a variety of prescriptions that support nonzero values for E(sub ll) and explore their effects on the structure of the resulting magnetospheres. We produce families of solutions that span the entire range between the vacuum and the (ideal) Force-Free Electrodynamic solutions. We also compute the amount of dissipation as a fraction of the Poynting flux for pulsars of different angles between the rotation and magnetic axes and conclude that tltis is at most 20-40% (depending on t he non-ideal prescription) in the aligned rotator and 10% in the perpendicular one. We present also the limiting solutions with the property J = pc and discuss their possible implicatioll on the determination of the "on/ off" states of the intermittent pulsars. Finally, we find that solutions with values of J greater than those needed to null E(sub ll) locally produce oscillations, potentially observable in the data.

Kalapotharakos, Constantinos↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Regionality of Moist Kelvin Waves and the MJO: The Critical Role of the Background Zonal Flow

Abstract A global model with superparameterized physics is used to shed light on the observed regionality of convectively coupled Kelvin waves and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO). A series of aquaplanet simulations over zonally uniform sea‐surface temperatures is performed, in which the axisymmetric structure of the background zonal flow is altered through nudging, while maintaining a quasi‐fixed rainfall climatology. Results show that nudging at the equator to match profiles typical of the Indo‐Pacific or eastern Pacific sectors yields eastward‐moving tropical rain spectra typical of those sectors. Two different mechanistic pathways are identified as being responsible for this mean‐flow dependence, in addition to Doppler shifting effects. The first is through shifts of the Rossby wave critical line in the subtropical upper troposphere that affect the lateral forcing of Kelvin‐mode circulations at the equator by eastward and equatorward‐propagating eddies impinging on the tropics from higher latitudes. The second is through changes in the strength of the mean cyclonic shear in the lower tropical troposphere that affect the degree to which intraseasonal fluctuations in Kelvin‐mode zonal winds modulate the activity of higher‐frequency equatorial Rossby‐type eddies. In cases where the mean low‐level cyclonic shear is enhanced, the strength of this modulation, referred to as “shear‐induced eddy modulation” or SIEM, is also seen to be enhanced, such that MJO‐like modes of variability are rendered either unstable or near neutral, depending on the strength of the shear.

Tulich, S. N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is determined by its basic dynamics. The conceptual ENSO recharge oscillator (RO) model is adopted to examine the ENSO phase-locking behavior in terms of its peak time, strength of phase locking, and asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events. The RO model reproduces the main phase-locking characteristics found in observations, and the results show that the phase locking of ENSO is mainly dominated by the seasonal modulation of ENSO growth/decay rate. In addition, the linear/nonlinear mechanism of ENSO phase preference/phase locking is investigated using RO model. The difference between the nonlinear phase-locking mechanism and linear phase-preference mechanism is largely smoothed out in the presence of noise forcing. Further, the impact on ENSO phase locking from annual cycle modulation of the growth/decay rate, stochastic forcing, nonlinearity, and linear frequency are examined in the RO model. The preferred month of ENSO peak time depends critically on the phase and strength of the seasonal modulation of the ENSO growth/decay rate. Furthermore, the strength of phase locking is mainly controlled by the linear growth/decay rate, the amplitude of seasonal modulation of growth/decay rate, the amplitude of noise, the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise, and the linear frequency. The asymmetry of the sharpness of ENSO phase locking is induced by the asymmetric effect of state-dependent noise forcing in El Niño and La Niña events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗