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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Prediction of Alfvén eigenmode energetic particle transport in ITER scenarios with a critical gradient model

A reduced 1D, local, critical-gradient model of energetic particle (EP) transport by Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs)—the TGLF-EP+Alpha model—is applied to a much-studied ITER base case and variations with lower plasma current and lower current penetration. The TGLF-EP+Alpha model is a greatly reduced and computationally inexpensive model of EP transport. Such a reduced critical gradient model, while inapplicable to transport driven by strongly nonlinear or non-local abrupt events, is a valuable tool for scoping studies needed in scenario optimization for ITER and beyond. Furthermore, it relies on the assumption of critical-gradient AE transport with the critical EP density gradient determined by linear AE stability calculations in the TGLF gyro-Landau fluid code automated with the parallel-processed TGLF-EP wrapper. EP transport is treated with simultaneous drive of AEs by fusion-born alpha particles and fast ions born from a 1 MeV neutral beam injection (NBI) heating. The effect of simultaneous drive creates about 50% increased particle transport in both EP channels. High magnetic safety factor q and low shear $\hat{s}$ are generally destabilizing to AEs, but low shear tends to be more important. A tailored q-profile, steady-staterelevant scenario can reduce AE-induced EP redistribution by better than 25% over the ITER base case despite having half the total current.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assessment of the State of the Art of Integrated Vehicle Health Management Technologies as Applicable to Damage Conditions

A survey of literature from academia, industry, and other Government agencies assessed the state of the art in current integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) aircraft technologies. These are the technologies that are used for assessing vehicle health at the system and subsystem level. This study reports on how these technologies are employed by major military and commercial platforms for detection, diagnosis, prognosis, and mitigation. Over 200 papers from five conferences from the time period of 2004 to 2009 were reviewed. Over 30 of these IVHM technologies are then mapped into the 17 different adverse event damage conditions identified in a previous study. This study illustrates existing gaps and opportunities for additional research by the NASA IVHM Project.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The velocity field of a coronal mass ejection - The event of September 1, 1980

The velocity field of a mass ejection that was observed by the coronagraph of the SMM satellite over the northwest limb of the sun at about 0600 UT on September 1, 1980 is studied in detail. A descriptive account of the event is given, concentrating on qualitative features of the mass motion and suggesting a possible origin of the unusual two-loop structure. The velocity field is analyzed quantitatively, and the implications of the results for the mass ejection theory are considered. It is concluded that a self-similar description of the velocity field is a gross oversimplification and that although some evidence of wave propagation can be found, the bright features in the mass ejection are plasma structures moving with frozen-in magnetic fields, rather than waves propagating through plasmas and magnetic fields.

Low, B. C.↗

Advanced Image Reconstruction for MCP Detector in Event Mode

A two-step data reduction framework is proposed in this study to reconstruct a radiograph from the data collected with a micro-channel plate (MCP) detector operating under event mode. One clustering algorithm and three neutron event back-tracing models are proposed and evaluated using both example data and a full scan data. The reconstructed radiographs are analyzed, the results of which are used to suggest future development.

Zhang, Chen↗

Event Location using Arrival Times from Seismic and Acoustic Phenomena

Accurately locating seismoacoustic sources with geophysical observations helps to monitor natural and anthropogenic phenomena. Sparsely deployed infrasound arrays can readily locate large sources thousands of kms away, but small events typically produce signals observable at only local to regional distances. At such distances, accurate location efforts rely on observations across smaller regional or temporary deployments which often consist of single-channel infrasound sensors that cannot record direction of arrival. Event locations can also be aided by inclusion of ground coupled airwaves (GCA). This study demonstrates how we can robustly locate a catalog of seismoacoustic events using infrasound, GCA, and seismic arrival times at local to near-regional distances. We employ a probabilistic location framework using simplified forward models. Our results indicate that both single-channel infrasound and GCA arrival times can provide accurate estimates of event location in the absence of array-based observations even when using simple models. However, one must carefully choose model uncertainty bounds to avoid underestimation of confidence intervals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Irradiation history and accretionary processes in lunar and meteoritic breccias

Particle track studies reveal an abundant record of fossil solar flare tracks in breccia components. Metamorphic events govern the degree to which this record is preserved, and studies of phases with different track retentivities allow limits to be placed on temperatures reached during a rock's history. The least affected breccias have never experienced temperatures as great as 300 C. Two breccias which contain xenon from spontaneous fission of Pu-244 (14301 and 14318) and Xe-129 (14301 only) have never been heated above about 700 C. This and evidence for a surface irradiation of some of the breccia components support a surface implantation model for the origin of the xenon in these breccias. Green glass spheres in 15086 have not been heated above about 300 C during or after breccia formation yet have retained fission tracks for less than 0.7 G.y. Argon ages of about 3.5 G.y. for similar green glass are at least five times as great and may indicate that the glass was not completely outgassed at is formation.

Macdougall, D.↗

ENSO Tropical Cloud and TOA radiative signatures from the CERES observation

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project now has over 15 years accurately observed top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) flux record for climate monitoring and diagnostic studies. The CERES flux-by-cloud-type dataset, which contains cloud properties and radiative fluxes for 42 cloud types sorted by cloud top pressure and cloud optical depth, is used to investigate the clouds and their associated TOA (top-of-the-atmosphere) fluxes changes over the tropical area during ENSO events during the observed period. Unlike past studies, this study shows the impact of ENSO on cloud properties like optical depth, cloud top effective pressure and temperature and TOA LW and SW fluxes for each sub cloud type. The study reveals the detailed contributions from different cloud types for radiative characteristics during different phases of ENSO. This is especially important for very small net TOA radiative balance due to the cancellation of the fluxes from different cloud types. To further demonstrate the usefulness of this dataset, NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used to simulate the cloud and radiative changes during the period. The model cloud properties are converted to MODIS like cloud properties using modified MODIS simulator. The dataset serves as a more stringent validation of the model for cloud properties and radiative fluxes.

Moguo Sun↗

Corotating particle enhancements out of the ecliptic plane

We have studied greater than 40 keV ion and electron enhancements seen at Ulysses from a series of corotating interaction regions (CIR), from mid-1992 until the end of 1993. The event intensity increased up to latitude 20 deg S; after that the ion flux maxima decreased by approximately 23%/deg while the electron maxima decreased more erratically, and more slowly, during the last half of 1993. After April, 1993, the electron increases lagged the ions by up to four days. The electron energy spectrum hardened both towards the end of the events and as the latitude went above approximately 35 deg. The electron/ion delays and the electron spectral hardening are related to the three-dimensional structure of the reverse shocks at high latitudes. The H/He ratio at approximately 0.4-1.2 MeV/nucleon decreased towards the end of each event; the mean minimum value was 3.5 +/- 0.3, lower than observed in earlier studies of CIR-associated events near the ecliptic plane. The He increases have recurred with a period of 26.0 days. There have been two phase changes: +4.3 days (February 1993) and +2.4 days (August 1993), related to changes in the coronal structure of the source regions for the high speed solar wind streams.

Simnett, G. M.↗

The Role of Seasonality and the ENSO Mode in Central and East Pacific ENSO Growth and Evolution

Abstract A cyclostationary linear inverse model (CSLIM) is used to investigate the seasonal growth of tropical Pacific Ocean El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with canonical, central Pacific (CP), or eastern Pacific (EP) sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics. Analysis shows that all types of ENSO events experience maximum growth toward final states occurring in November and December. ENSO events with EP characteristics also experience growth into May and June, but CP events do not. A single dominant “ENSO mode,” growing from an equatorial heat content anomaly into a characteristic ENSO-type SST pattern in about 9 months (consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator model of ENSO), is essential for the predictable development of all ENSO events. Notably, its seasonality is responsible for the late-calendar-year maximum in ENSO amplification. However, this ENSO mode alone does not capture the observed growth and evolution of diverse ENSO events, which additionally involve the seasonal evolution of other nonorthogonal Floquet modes. EP event growth occurs when the ENSO mode is initially “covered up” in combination with other Floquet modes. The ENSO mode’s slow seasonal evolution allows it to emerge while the other modes rapidly evolve and/or decay, leading to strongly amplifying and more predictable EP events. CP events develop when the initial state has a substantial contribution from Floquet modes with meridional mode–like SST structures. Thus, while nearly all ENSO events involve the seasonally varying ENSO-mode dynamics, the diversity and predictability of ENSO events cannot be understood without identifying contributions from the remaining Floquet modes. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to identify structures that lead to seasonal growth of diverse types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. An important contribution from this study is that it uses an observationally constrained, empirically derived seasonal model. We find that processes affecting the evolution of diverse ENSO events are strongly seasonally dependent. ENSO events with eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) characteristics are closely related to a single “ENSO mode” that resembles theoretical models of ENSO variability. ENSO events that have central equatorial Pacific SST characteristics include contributions from additional “meridional mode” structures that evolve via different physical processes. These findings are an important step in evaluating the seasonal predictability of ENSO diversity.

Vimont, Daniel J.↗

Rapid changes in coastal ocean microbiomes uncoupled with shifts in environmental variables

Disturbances, here defined as events that directly alter microbial community composition, are commonly studied in host–associated and engineered systems. Notably, in spite of global change both altering environmental averages and increasing extreme events, there has been relatively little research into the causes, persistence and population–level impacts of disturbance in the dynamic coastal ocean. Here, we utilize 3 years of observations from a coastal time series to identify disturbances based on the largest week–over–week changes in the microbiome (i.e. identifying disturbance as events that alter the community composition). In general, these microbiome disturbances were not clearly linked to specific environmental factors and responsive taxa largely differed, aside from SAR11, which generally declined. However, several disturbance metagenomes identified increased phage–associated genes, suggesting that unexplained community shifts might be caused by increased mortality. Furthermore, a category 1 hurricane, the only event that would likely be classified a priori as an environmental disturbance, was not an outlier in microbiome composition, but did enhance a bloom in seasonally abundant phytoplankton. Thus, as extreme environmental changes intensify, assumptions of what constitutes a disturbance should be re–examined in the context of ecological history and microbiome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of the Alfven Wave Turbulence on the Dynamics of SEPs

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are high-energy particles originating from the Sun that pose potential risks to space missions, especially those outside Earth's protective magnetosphere. Understanding their behavior within the heliosphere and Earth's magnetosphere is vital for the safety and functionality of space exploration. The study focuses on how the pitch angle scattering, the angle change between a particle's velocity and the magnetic field due to interactions with magnetic irregularities, impacts the decay phase of SEP events. By solving the focused transport equation, the study models the transport of SEPs along magnetic field lines, extending these lines up to 5 AU (Astronomical Units) to understand their behavior even beyond the typical proximity to the Sun. Incorporating the effects of pitch angle scattering at such vast distances is crucial for understanding the decay dynamics of a SEP event. This modeling of SEPs is integrated with simulations of other vital space phenomena: the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, and Alfven wave turbulence. This presentation covers the modeling approach used in this research and the role of pitch angle scattering at various heliocentric distances on the dynamics of the SEP events' decay phase.

solar energetic particles↗

Study of Unboosted Higgs Pair Production with HH to bbWW Decay with the CMS experiment at the LHC

Measurement of the Higgs boson self-interaction through the production of Higgs boson (H) pairs is critical for understanding the shape of the Higgs potential and the stability of the universe. Higgs pair production (HH) where one H decays to b quarks (H to bb) and the other to hadronically decaying W bosons (H to WW*→qqqq) has a large branching fraction with the cost of high background from jets produced through quantum chromodynamics (QCD). While previous all-hadronic HH→bbWW analyses focused on the few percent of highly energetic HH events with collimated decay products, this first study of its kind targets the more challenging 95$\%$ of HH to bbWW* in which decay products can be reconstructed as separate jets providing sensitivity to a complementary region of phase space. This poster focuses on generator level measurements of the fractions of HH to bbWW* signal events are fully or partially reconstructed and what fraction are impacted by contamination from high momentum jets from initial or final state radiation. Partially reconstructed events are further classified according to whether the H to bb, H to WW*, or W to qq are fully reconstructed

Gillespie, Emma [U. Louisville]↗

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗

A Living Catalog of Stream Interaction Regions in the Parker Solar Probe Era

Stream interaction regions (SIRs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) are important phenomena in heliospheric physics. These large-scale structures vary temporally and spatially, both in latitude and with radial distance. The additions of Parker Solar Probe(PSP) and Solar Orbiter have allowed for investigations into the radial evolution of these structures over a wide range of heliocentric distances for the first time since the Helios era. To better enable investigations of SIRs and CIRs within the inner heliosphere, we have developed a living catalog of SIR and CIR observations by Parker Solar Probe with corresponding observations by STEREO-A as well as ACE and Wind at 1 au. The methodology used for the identification of events and the generation of this catalog, the initial catalog of PSP observations spanning orbits one through five along with corresponding 1 au observations, and information on accessing the living catalog for future studies is described. This list of SIR and CIR events from PSP and corresponding observations from other heliophysics missions will enable case studies utilizing unique orbital arrangements, as well as aid in future statistical studies to further understand the properties and evolution of these structures.

Catalogs↗

Status of the Fuel Fragment Dispersal Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

During a loss-of-coolant accident, a nuclear fuel rods undergo balloon and burst. High burnup fuel is known to fragment and pulverize leading to the potential for the fuel to disperse through the burst opening either during the initial burst or following the burst during the reflood event. This milestone summarizes the design and assembly of a system to study dispersal in a postburst event. Surrogate fuel material (HfO 2 , tungsten, and yttria-stabilized zirconia [YSZ]) dispersing from as-burst loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) test specimens was extensively investigated, along with dispersal of actual nuclear fuel following a LOCA Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) test.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗