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DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of reconstruction-free static magnetic control of DIII-D plasma with deep reinforcement learning

This paper presents the development and experimental validation of a reinforcement learning (RL)-based magnetic controller on the DIII-D tokamak. The controller directly maps raw magnetic diagnostic signals to actuator commands, replacing the traditional isoflux control algorithm based on equilibrium reconstruction. Four RL controllers are trained using the Soft Actor–Critic algorithm with an asymmetric Actor–Critic architecture in the NSFsim simulator. All controllers are deployed in the DIII-D Plasma Control System and operated with a 4 kHz feedback loop. Two randomization strategies are evaluated during training: evolving kinetic profiles and fixed kinetic profiles within each episode. The latter approach is found to better capture experimental deviations in the current density profile and to provide overall improved control performance. Robust operation is demonstrated across heating power scans in both L- and H-mode plasmas, as well as during transient events such as L–H transitions and pellet injections. Control errors in plasma shape and radial position remained within 1.5–2.0 cm and 1 cm, respectively. A notable discrepancy was observed in the vertical X-point position, with errors of up to approximately 4 cm, attributed to the current density distribution mismatches between simulations and experiments.

DIII-D↗

DOE OSTI2020

Speeding up particle track reconstruction using a parallel Kalman filter algorithm

One of the most computationally difficult problems expected for the High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) is determining the trajectory of charged particles during event reconstruction. Algorithms used at the LHC today rely on Kalman filtering, which builds physical trajectories incrementally while incorporating material effects and error estimation. Recognizing the need for faster computational throughput, we have adapted Kalman-filter-based methods for highly parallel, many-core SIMD architectures that are now prevalent in high-performance hardware. In this paper, we discuss the design and performance of the improved tracking algorithm, referred to as mkFit. A key piece of the algorithm is the Matriplex library, containing dedicated code to optimally vectorize operations on small matrices. The physics performance of the mkFit algorithm is comparable to the nominal CMS tracking algorithm when reconstructing tracks from simulated proton-proton collisions within the CMS detector. We study the scaling of the algorithm as a function of the parallel resources utilized and find large speedups both from vectorization and multi-threading. mkFit achieves a speedup of a factor of 6 compared to the nominal algorithm when run in a single-threaded application within the CMS software framework.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

CUDO: closed-form universal dwell-time optimization for computer-controlled optical surfacing

Precision optical figuring demands fast and accurate dwell time optimization to reach nanometer- and sub-nanometer-level accuracy in next-generation optical systems. We introduce CUDO (closed-form universal dwell-time optimization), the first, to the best of our knowledge, unified closed-form analytical framework that supports both function-form and matrix-form dwell time models in computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In contrast to traditional methods, which rely on iterative optimization and hyperparameter tuning, our framework derives direct analytical solutions with no adjustable parameters. This approach unifies the solution principles of existing methods within a single mathematical model, delivering three key advantages: (1) accuracy on par with, or superior to, iterative solvers, (2) substantial reduction in computation time, and (3) numerical robustness. Comparative studies with prior art confirm that closed-form solutions achieve equivalent residual error while removing runtime bottlenecks. By simplifying the implementation and enabling real-time, scalable deployment, CUDO establishes a practical foundation for future deterministic fabrication of large-aperture and high-performance optics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solute chemistry for streams draining geomorphic features and varying land cover gradients in the East River watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains solute chemistry data and GPS coordinates for surface water samples collected in the East River watershed in the Elk and West Elk Ranges of Colorado from August 3rd through August 11th, 2022. Samples were collected from streams and groundwater seeps as part of a comprehensive analysis within the watershed of how different geomorphic features (such as landslides and rock glaciers) along with variations in land cover (such as the presence of vegetation) affect stream water quality in this Rocky Mountain headwater environment. This dataset includes concentrations of the following in a single csv file: fluoride, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium, silicon, and total organic carbon (TOC). All concentrations are reported in mg/L. The sulfate data in this version have been updated to account for an earlier ion chromatograph instrument method error whereby sulfate and bromide peaks overlapped in calibration solution samples, biasing calculated sulfate concentrations low by 30-50%. Sulfate data reported herein are from a re-run of the samples performed in December 2024 using a corrected instrument method. All samples were stored under refrigerated conditions and filtered on initial collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strengthening Technical Safeguards of Fresh Fuel Through International Cooperation

Over time, nuclear fuel designs have shifted towards having higher initial enrichments and a greater number of burnable poison rods. This enables increased burnup for commercial reasons. These changes have made safeguards measurements of the 235 U content in modern fresh fuel more challenging.This is addressed here through a re-evaluation of the UNCL (Uranium Neutron Collar–Light Water Reactor Fuel)poison rod correction factor. Coefficients of the poison rod correction factor were updated by simulating response of AngraII PWR fuel with a wide range of both burnable poison rods and Gd 2 O 3 contentper rod. Benchmark comparisons are made to experiments performed at Resende (Brazil) and CNEN/LASAL in Brazil. By updating these coefficients, while maintaining the same mathematical form to allow INCC to be used without software modification,it was possible to reduce error in experimental 235 U linear density assay by an order of magnitude.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis and Software Verification

Uncertainty analyses are an important part of calibrations and testing. They allow researchers insight on how to reduce and mitigate errors in testing. Each device used in testing introduces error in a system, as well as other sources such as environmental conditions, electronics, analog to digital, and random errors. Each source is carefully examined to identify how much error it introduces to a system. These sources are then combined using various methods of uncertainty calculations. To verify and validate software, a manual calculation is required to ensure the software is performing as intended. Using Excel to verify the calculations, we can identify discrepancies within the software. The root of the sum of the squares uncertainty (RSS) is used to find the combined uncertainty of a device at one and two standard deviations of the mean. Calibrations on accelerometers are performed using a vibration system along with a back-toback reference accelerometer. The vibration system takes a reference point at 100Hz frequency at 10g amplitude. The sensitivities are collected at each dialed in frequency. The sensitivity of the device represents the electrical output of the UUT (mV, pC, etc.) per unit of acceleration (g). The full history of sensitivities of selected accelerometers are used to find the averaged, standard deviation, and uncertainty of the device at each frequency tested. The uncertainty calculations from excel and the software are then compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transformers and Long Short-Term Memory Transfer Learning for GenIV Reactor Temperature Time Series Forecasting

Automated monitoring of the coolant temperature can enable autonomous operation of generation IV reactors (GenIV), thus reducing their operating and maintenance costs. Automation can be accomplished with machine learning (ML) models trained on historical sensor data. However, the performance of ML usually depends on the availability of large amount of training data, which is difficult to obtain for GenIV, as this technology is still under development. We propose the use of transfer learning (TL), which involves utilizing knowledge across different domains, to compensate for this lack of training data. TL can be used to create pre-trained ML models with data from small-scale research facilities, which can then be fine-tuned to monitor GenIV reactors. In this work, we develop pre-trained Transformer and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks by training them on temperature measurements from thermal hydraulic flow loops operating with water and Galinstan fluids at room temperature at Argonne National Laboratory. The pre-trained models are then fine-tuned and re-trained with minimal additional data to perform predictions of the time series of high temperature measurements obtained from the Engineering Test Unit (ETU) at Kairos Power. The performance of the LSTM and Transformer networks is investigated by varying the size of the lookback window and forecast horizon. The results of this study show that LSTM networks have lower prediction errors than Transformers, but LSTM errors increase more rapidly with increasing lookback window size and forecast horizon compared to the Transformer errors.

LSTM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Fault Characterization and Diagnostics Supporting Condition-Based Operation and Maintenance of Gas Turbine Engines

Condition-Based Operation and Maintenance (CBOM) is the state-of-the-art in maintenance approaches for gas turbine engines. CBOM applies engine sensor information to the optimization of future operation and maintenance procedures; this technique reduces costs for engine operators by minimizing unplanned outages and catastrophic engine degradation. However, due to the complexities of gas turbine operation and the lack of available engine sensors, further development is required to fully realize the benefits of CBOM. In the turbine section, rotating components interact with high temperature flows, which creates intense thermal and mechanical stresses. As a result, there are numerous mechanisms of component degradation in the turbine section. Furthermore, turbine components – like stator vanes and rotor blades – are among the most expensive in the engine because they are complex to design and manufacture. For these reasons, this dissertation addresses two main questions: (i) which parameters or faults within the turbine section are most important to monitor, and (ii) how can these parameters or faults be monitored in an engine-relevant environment? Although many turbine parameters and faults have been investigated in the open literature, there are some faults that are still not well understood. Rotor-casing eccentricity, which causes a non-constant blade tip clearance around the annulus, has not been investigated in terms of its effects on turbine efficiency. Therefore, the first study in this dissertation quantifies overall and local turbine efficiency for varying levels of rotor-casing eccentricity. Results showed negligible variations to overall turbine efficiency, meaning rotor-casing eccentricity only becomes relevant to CBOM when its severity causes rotordynamic issues. Purge flow is critical to turbine hardware longevity because it prevents ingestion of hot main gas path (MGP) flow into the under-platform regions. Despite its importance, there are currently no methods for monitoring purge flow performance in an engine environment. Therefore, the second study in this dissertation develops a predictive model for sealing effectiveness using inputs from two fast-response pressure sensors. Results exhibited low prediction errors across a full range of purge flow rates, which supports the viability of the modelling approach for CBOM. The final two studies in this dissertation address blade coolant flow monitoring. This cooling flow is responsible for protecting the turbine blades from the MGP flow, which exits the combustor at temperatures greater than the blade melting point. These studies showed that temperature measurements on the blade surface can be used to accurately predict blade coolant flow rate, and that defining the candidate features relative to the coolant trajectory is important for maintaining accuracy as coolant flow rate degradation occurs. This work enables blade coolant flow monitoring, which is currently not possible through existing condition monitoring techniques.

condition-based, gas turbines, diagnostics,↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neutron Leakage Spectra of the EUCLID Experiment [Abstract]

Integral experiments with sub-critical and critical configurations of special nuclear material are performed in support of nuclear data validation and adjustment. Different nuclear data evaluations may have different values for individual cross sections due to uncertainties in (or lack of) differential experiments, but compensating errors in these data sets can lead to the same k eff results for one application while vastly different for another application. One example of this is 239 Pu, where both ENDF/B-VIII.0 and JEFF-3.3 correctly compute k eff of the Jezebel critical assembly, but the individual contributions from each reaction are vastly different. To help resolve this specific case, the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project used machine learning to design a set of experiments to help resolve the compensating errors in 239 Pu. A total of six responses were measured during the experimental campaign, which constrain the data in ways that k eff alone cannot and will be used for adjustment of the nuclear data. One of these responses is the neutron leakage spectrum, which recent work has shown to be useful for constraining the prompt fission neutron spectrum and inelastic scattering. The neutron leakage spectra were measured utilizing a 3 in. right cylinder EJ-301D detector. The measured signal in the detector was deconvoluted using spectrum unfolding techniques, which are presented and compared to simulations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of the SLATE linear algebra library

SLATE (Software for Linear Algebra Targeting Exascale) is a distributed, dense linear algebra library targeting both CPU-only and GPU-accelerated systems, developed over the course of the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). While it began with several documents setting out its initial design, significant design changes occurred throughout its development. In some cases, these were anticipated: an early version used a simple consistency flag that was later replaced with a full-featured consistency protocol. In other cases, performance limitations and software and hardware changes prompted a redesign. Sequential communication tasks were parallelized; host-to-host MPI calls were replaced with GPU device-to-device MPI calls; more advanced algorithms such as Communication Avoiding LU and the Random Butterfly Transform (RBT) were introduced. Early choices that turned out to be cumbersome, error prone, or inflexible have been replaced with simpler, more intuitive, or more flexible designs. Applications have been a driving force, prompting a lighter weight queue class, nonuniform tile sizes, and more flexible MPI process grids. Of paramount importance has been building a portable library that works across several different GPU architectures – AMD, Intel, and NVIDIA – while keeping a clean and maintainable codebase. Here we explore the evolving design choices and their effects, both in terms of performance and software sustainability.

Gates, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combining Sparse Approximate Factorizations with Mixed-precision Iterative Refinement

The standard LU factorization-based solution process for linear systems can be enhanced in speed or accuracy by employing mixed-precision iterative refinement. Most recent work has focused on dense systems. We investigate the potential of mixed-precision iterative refinement to enhance methods for sparse systems based on approximate sparse factorizations. In doing so, we first develop a new error analysis for LU- and GMRES-based iterative refinement under a general model of LU factorization that accounts for the approximation methods typically used by modern sparse solvers, such as low-rank approximations or relaxed pivoting strategies. We then provide a detailed performance analysis of both the execution time and memory consumption of different algorithms, based on a selected set of iterative refinement variants and approximate sparse factorizations. Our performance study uses the multifrontal solver MUMPS, which can exploit block low-rank factorization and static pivoting. We evaluate the performance of the algorithms on large, sparse problems coming from a variety of real-life and industrial applications showing that mixed-precision iterative refinement combined with approximate sparse factorization can lead to considerable reductions of both the time and memory consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of genotype‐calling methodologies on genome‐wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

Abstract Discovery and analysis of genetic variants underlying agriculturally important traits are key to molecular breeding of crops. Reduced representation approaches have provided cost‐efficient genotyping using next‐generation sequencing. However, accurate genotype calling from next‐generation sequencing data is challenging, particularly in polyploid species due to their genome complexity. Recently developed Bayesian statistical methods implemented in available software packages, polyRAD, EBG, and updog, incorporate error rates and population parameters to accurately estimate allelic dosage across any ploidy. We used empirical and simulated data to evaluate the three Bayesian algorithms and demonstrated their impact on the power of genome‐wide association study (GWAS) analysis and the accuracy of genomic prediction. We further incorporated uncertainty in allelic dosage estimation by testing continuous genotype calls and comparing their performance to discrete genotypes in GWAS and genomic prediction. We tested the genotype‐calling methods using data from two autotetraploid species, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum , and performed GWAS and genomic prediction. In the empirical study, the tested Bayesian genotype‐calling algorithms differed in their downstream effects on GWAS and genomic prediction, with some showing advantages over others. Through subsequent simulation studies, we observed that at low read depth, polyRAD was advantageous in its effect on GWAS power and limit of false positives. Additionally, we found that continuous genotypes increased the accuracy of genomic prediction, by reducing genotyping error, particularly at low sequencing depth. Our results indicate that by using the Bayesian algorithm implemented in polyRAD and continuous genotypes, we can accurately and cost‐efficiently implement GWAS and genomic prediction in polyploid crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computationally efficient zero-noise extrapolation for quantum-gate-error mitigation

Zero noise extrapolation (ZNE) is a widely used technique for gate error mitigation on near term quantum computers because it can be implemented in software and does not require knowledge of the quantum computer noise parameters. Traditional ZNE requires a significant resource overhead in terms of quantum operations. A recent proposal using a targeted (or random) instead of fixed identity insertion method (riim versus fiim) requires significantly fewer quantum gates for the same formal precision. We start by showing that riim can allow for ZNE to be deployed on deeper circuits than fiim but requires many more measurements to maintain the same statistical uncertainty. We develop two extensions to fiim and riim. The List Identity Insertion Method (liim) allows to mitigate the error from certain cnot gates, typically those with the largest error. Set Identity Insertion Method (siim) naturally interpolates between the measurement-efficient fiim and the gate-efficient riim allowing to trade off fewer cnot gates for more measurements. Finally, we investigate a way to boost the number of measurements, namely to run ZNE in parallel, utilizing as many quantum devices as are available. We explore the performance of riim in a parallel setting where there is a non-trivial spread in noise across sets of qubits within or across quantum computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗