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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Sunspot analysis and prediction

An attempt is made to develop an accurate functional representation, using common trigonometric functions, of all existing sunspot data, both quantitative and qualitative, ancient and modern. It is concluded that the three periods of high sunspot activity (1935 to 1970, 1835 to 1870, and 1755 to 1790) are independent populations. It is also concluded that these populations have long periods of approximately 400, 500, and 610 years, respectively. The difficulties in assuming a periodicity of seven 11-year cycles of approximately 80 years are discussed.

Steyer, C. C.↗

Computer experiments on periodic systems identification using rotor blade transient flapping-torsion responses at high advance ratio

Systems identification methods have recently been applied to rotorcraft to estimate stability derivatives from transient flight control response data. While these applications assumed a linear constant coefficient representation of the rotorcraft, the computer experiments described in this paper used transient responses in flap-bending and torsion of a rotor blade at high advance ratio which is a rapidly time varying periodic system.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗

Optical processing for future computer networks

In the development of future data management systems, such as the NASA Space Station, a major problem represents the design and implementation of a high performance communication network which is self-correcting and repairing, flexible, and evolvable. To obtain the goal of designing such a network, it will be essential to incorporate distributed adaptive network control techniques. The present paper provides an outline of the functional and communication network requirements for the Space Station data management system. Attention is given to the mathematical representation of the operations being carried out to provide the required functionality at each layer of communication protocol on the model. The possible implementation of specific communication functions in optics is also considered.

Husain, A.↗

MSIS-86 thermospheric model

The MSIS-86 empirical model of thermospheric temperature, density and composition uses new temperature and composition data from the Dynamics Explorer satellite to improve the representation of polar region morphology over that in the MSIS-83 model. Terms were added or changed to better represent seasonal variations in the polar regions under both quiet and magnetically disturbed conditions. Local time variations in the magnetic activity effect were added. In addition a new species, atomic nitrogen, was added to the previous list of N2, O2, He, O, H, and Ar covered by the model.

Hedin, Alan E.↗

The PARTY parallel runtime system

In the present automated system for the organization of the data and computational operations entailed by parallel problems, in ways that optimize multiprocessor performance, general heuristics for partitioning program data and control are implemented by capturing and manipulating representations of a computation at run time. These heuristics are directed toward the dynamic identification and allocation of concurrent work in computations with irregular computational patterns. An optimized static-workload partitioning is computed for such repetitive-computation pattern problems as the iterative ones employed in scientific computation.

Saltz, J. H.↗

The indexed time table approach for planning and acting

A representation is discussed of symbolic temporal relations, called IxTeT, that is both powerful enough at the reasoning level for tasks such as plan generation, refinement and modification, and efficient enough for dealing with real time constraints in action monitoring and reactive planning. Such representation for dealing with time is needed in a teleoperated space robot. After a brief survey of known approaches, the proposed representation shows its computational efficiency for managing a large data base of temporal relations. Reactive planning with IxTeT is described and exemplified through the problem of mission planning and modification for a simple surveying satellite.

Ghallab, Malik↗

Surface representations of two- and three-dimensional fluid flow topology

We discuss our work using critical point analysis to generate representations of the vector field topology of numerical flow data sets. Critical points are located and characterized in a two-dimensional domain, which may be either a two-dimensional flow field or the tangential velocity field near a three-dimensional body. Tangent curves are then integrated out along the principal directions of certain classes of critical points. The points and curves are linked to form a skeleton representing the two-dimensional vector field topology. When generated from the tangential velocity field near a body in a three-dimensional flow, the skeleton includes the critical points and curves which provide a basis for analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the flow separation. The points along the separation curves in the skeleton are used to start tangent curve integrations to generate surfaces representing the topology of the associated flow separations.

Helman, James L.↗

Mechanical System Analysis/Design Tool (MSAT) Quick Guide

MSAT is a unique multi-component multi-disciplinary tool that organizes design analysis tasks around object-oriented representations of configuration components, analysis programs and modules, and data transfer links between them. This creative modular architecture enables rapid generation of input stream for trade-off studies of various engine configurations. The data transfer links automatically transport output from one application as relevant input to the next application once the sequence is set up by the user. The computations are managed via constraint propagation - the constraints supplied by the user as part of any optimization module. The software can be used in the preliminary design stage as well as during the detail design of product development process.

Lee, HauHua↗

Experiments with a Data Assimilation System to Diagnose AGCM Hindcasts of the MJO

The objectives of this study are to (1) develop a better understanding of how observations constrain/impact the MJO in a data assimilation system with the aim of improving the representation of the MJO, and (2) to carry out AGCM predictability/forecast experiments under various observational constraints to assess model errors and sensitivity to initial conditions. Our current focus is on the second objective.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Non-invasive in vivo measurement of macular carotenoids

A non-invasive in vivo method for assessing macular carotenoids includes performing Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) on a retina of a subject. A spatial representation of carotenoid levels in the macula based on data from the OCT of the retina can be generated.

Lambert, James L.↗

The Effect of Inverter Loading Ratio on Energy Estimate Bias: Preprint

Subhourly effects, particularly variability in solar irradiance, can lead to underestimation of inverter clipping losses and overestimation of energy in hourly photovoltaic system performance models, particularly for systems with high inverter loading ratios. Direct simulation of this error can be complicated by factors such as the representation of spatial and temporal variability in hourly weather data and transient system conditions. In this work we take an alternative approach using real system power measurements to show that energy predictions from typical industry models suffer from a bias that increases with inverter loading ratio. We also show that this loading ratio-dependent bias is strongly correlated with an empirical subhourly inverter clipping bias derived from real power plant data. Finally, we show that this bias is not necessarily specific to any one model or weather dataset by recreating similar biases with alternatives of each.

clipping↗

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer-Based Hydrogen Production Facility: Preprint

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of Digital Twin-Informed Predictive Maintenance for Critical Components in Advanced Reactors

Small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, along with other advanced reactor (AR) technologies, are key to the future of nuclear energy. For these systems to achieve low operating costs, high reliability, and flexibility across applications, their operation and maintenance must be optimized. Digital twin (DT) technology is one of the technologies that enables real-time (or faster than real-time) monitoring and prognosis of critical components which are vital for operational efficiency, low costs, and enhanced safety of ARs, accelerating their deployment. DT technology provides dynamic virtual representation of physical assets by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and advanced analytics, which is critical to optimizing the performance of the entire energy system throughout the life cycle. DTs empower engineers and operators to virtually explore different scenarios, configurations, and control strategies, allowing for the identification of optimal solutions that maximize reactor efficiency, safety, and economics.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers

RUSHMAPS is a new onboard data reduction scheme that gives real-time access to key science parameters (e.g. moments) of a class of heliophysics science and/or solar system exploration investigation that includes plasma particle spectrometers (PPS), but requires moments reporting (density, bulk-velocity, temperature, pressure, etc.) of higher-level quality, and tolerates a lowpass (variable quality) spectral representation of the corresponding particle velocity distributions, such that telemetry use is minimized. The proposed methodology trades access to the full-resolution velocity distribution data, saving on telemetry, for real-time access to both the moments and an adjustable-quality (increasing quality increases volume) spectral representation of distribution functions. Traditional onboard data storage and downlink bandwidth constraints severely limit PPS system functionality and drive cost, which, as a consequence, drives a limited data collection and lower angular energy and time resolution. This prototypical system exploit, using high-performance processing technology at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center), uses a SpaceCube and/or Maestro-type platform for processing. These processing platforms are currently being used on the International Space Station as a technology demonstration, and work is currently ongoing in a new onboard computation system for the Earth Science missions, but they have never been implemented in heliospheric science or solar system exploration missions. Preliminary analysis confirms that the targeted processor platforms possess the processing resources required for realtime application of these algorithms to the spectrometer data. SpaceCube platforms demonstrate that the target architecture possesses the sort of compact, low-mass/power, radiation-tolerant characteristics needed for flight. These high-performing hybrid systems embed unprecedented amounts of onboard processing power in the CPU (central processing unit), FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays), and DSP (digital signal processing) elements. The fundamental computational algorithm de constructs 3D velocity distributions in terms of spherical harmonic spectral coefficients (which are analogous to a Fourier sine-cosine decomposition), but uses instead spherical harmonics Legendre polynomial orthogonal functions as a basis for the expansion, portraying each 2D angular distribution at every energy or, geometrically, spherical speed-shell swept by the particle spectrometer. Optionally, these spherical harmonic spectral coefficients may be telemetered to the ground. These will provide a smoothed description of the velocity distribution function whose quality will depend on the number of coefficients determined. Successfully implemented on the GSFC-developed processor, the capability to integrate the proposed methodology with both heritage and anticipated future plasma particle spectrometer designs is demonstrated (with sufficiently detailed design analysis to advance TRL) to show specific science relevancy with future HSD (Heliophysics Science Division) solar-interplanetary, planetary missions, sounding rockets and/or CubeSat missions.

Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo↗

A learning flight control system for the F8-DFBW aircraft

This report contains a complete description of a learning control system designed for the F8-DFBW aircraft. The system is parameter-adaptive with the additional feature that it 'learns' the variation of the control system gains needed over the flight envelope. It, thus, generates and modifies its gain schedule when suitable data are available. The report emphasizes the novel learning features of the system: the forms of representation of the flight envelope and the process by which identified parameters are used to modify the gain schedule. It contains data taken during piloted real-time 6 degree-of-freedom simulations that were used to develop and evaluate the system.

Montgomery, R. C.↗

A Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

Executive Summary NOAA is making major contributions to the solar forecasting project in three areas. First, it is improving its forecasts of solar irradiance, clouds, and aerosols in its numerical weather prediction models. Second, it is providing advanced satellite products for DOE's FOA awardees to use in their forecast systems. Third, it is using high-quality ground-based measurements from SURFRAD and ISIS stations to verify and validate forecast model output. This reports covers results from all three areas for the period May 1, 2014 - April 30, 2015. Modeling In its modeling effort, NOAA continues work to improve the skill of solar forecasts from the Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) research versions of the 13-km Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) models, which are in turn transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). A major milestone was achieved in September 2014 with the initial operational implementation of the HRRR at NCEP. In the ESRL research versions of the models, testing and development, in both real-time runs and retrospective experiments, is guided by an extensive in-house verification system. Early in the SFIP project, we developed the capability to verify our model forecasts against the high-quality surface radiation measurements from the SURFRAD and ISIS networks. This highlighted some shortcomings with the RAP and HRRR forecasts of incoming shortwave radiation. Most of our effort during Phase 1 of SFIP was focused on addressing these problems with a variety of model system improvements. The RAP and HRRR models during the warm season of 2014 had a noticeable warm and dry bias in near-surface conditions over most of the central and eastern United States, and our new SURFRAD/ISIS verification revealed that there was also a large excess of incoming global horizontal irradiance in the models. We hypothesized that a lack of cloud cover (particularly low-level cloud cover) in the models was resulting in too much heating of the land surface. This, in turn, caused unrealistically strong surface heat fluxes and turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), which further reduced the already deficient cloud cover. We addressed these issues with a combination of data assimilation system modifications and model physics improvements. Many of our data assimilation changes were made with a view towards improving the near-term representation of clouds and precipitation. One of these changes involved better accounting for regions of weak reflectivity in the RAP cloud / hydrometeor assimilation system, in order to improve the representation of light precipitation in the RAP initial conditions and provide more realistic initial cloud cover. Additional modifications more accurately accounted for radar beam blockage and data gaps (particularly in the western United States), which improves shorter lead times forecasts of clouds and precipitation. We have also tested the assimilation of new data sources within the RAP and the HRRR, including radar radial velocity data and surface mesonet observations. Within the HRRR, we have tested the cycling of the 3-km land surface fields to allow a higher-resolution treatment of land surface processes. In terms of model physics development for SFIP, we have implemented a shallow cumulus scheme within the RAP, and have made numerous improvements to the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme to address insufficient low-level cloud cover in the models. We have conducted tests incorporating the radiation effects of (parameterized) boundary-layer clouds within the modified MYNN PBL scheme (independent of the convective schemes). The Grell-Freitas-Olson shallow cumulus scheme has also been tested within the 3-km HRRR. Finally, we have also modified the RUC land surface model (LSM) treatment of the vegetation wilting point, reducing it to increase evapotranspiration and increase cloud cover in the boundary layer. All of these changes work in tandem to significantly improve the model forecasts of cloud cover, incoming shortwave radiation, and near-surface temperature and moisture. Satellite The role of NOAA/NESDIS in the Solar Forecasting Improvement Project is to provide Advanced Satellite Products (ASPs) for the two forecasting teams at NCAR and IBM. The ASPs are cloud, surface, and atmosphere products derived from geostationary satellite imagery at the highest possible spatial and temporal resolution - such quantities as cloud mask, cloud probability, cloud transmission, cloud top height, cloud top temperature, cloud effective particle size, etc. Ancillary data, such as elevation and numerical weather prediction fields are provided in the files at the same resolution as well. There are at this time 147 different variables in the ASP output, including quality flags and processing information. The main goals for Year 1 of the project were to implement an Advanced Satellite Products system for the use of the IBM and NCAR teams, begin validation, and make any needed changes based on feedback from the teams. ASP files are being produced every GOES Imager acquisition, which occur on a 15-30 minute schedule. Processing is done on a dedicated computer, with a turn-around time of 8-21 minutes from image acquisition to results available on ftp. Several helpful visualizations of the data are also created for users on web pages. Users have been provided with a document titled "User's Guide for 1km Cloud Products Derived from GOES Imager Data using CLAVR-x", which discusses the basics of the source imagery, the process by which it is turned into Advanced Satellite Products, and considerations users should make when using the data. Validation of selected variables from the older 4km version of the products was also included. Future work will concentrate on validation of the 1km products and improving the turn-around time, product variety, and product quality as needed. Ground Observations In the ground-based measurement effort, NOAA's main objectives are to provide high quality radiation products for validation and verification of short-term to day-ahead solar forecasts. More specifically for the three year project, our goals include (1) Maintaining and providing data from our 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS; (2) Update ISIS radiation measurements from 3 min to 1 min data: (3) Purchase and install new pyrheliometers for direct solar irradiance measurements at the 7 SURFRAD sites; (4) Building, testing, and deploying two mobile SURFRAD stations at two utility plants in collaboration with DOE sponsored partners, and includes ongoing maintenance and processing of the data at the mobile sites; (5) Upgrading the data acquisition and communications at 7 SURFRAD sites and 7 ISIS sites; (6) Providing radiation data at the 7 SURFRAD sites in near real-time; (7) Develop and provide aerosol optical depth and cloud images and cloud fraction at our two mobile sites; (8) Provide data recovery rates each year; (9) Provide temporally and spatially averaged radiation products for comparison to HRRR and RAP solar forecasts and advanced satellite products; (10) Provide a data-set for analysis of conversion of direct and diffuse to sloped surfaces; (11) and as time permits develop and provide spectral solar irradiance, cloud optical depth and spectral albedo from the mobile sites. Milestones this year include working with the DOE sponsored teams to find locations to deploy two mobile SURFRAD stations. One existing unit was deployed at a 30MW PV facility in the San Luis Valley in collaboration with Xcel and the NCAR team in August, 2014. The second unit was built and tested at our facilities in Boulder, CO and deployed near Green Mountain Power's Education Center in Rutland, VT in collaboration with Green Mountain Power and the IBM Team in October, 2014. Data processing was implemented and the radiation data from these two mobile sites have been made available on our ftp server in near real-time. We also are providing images and cloud fraction from the TSI cameras for these two mobile sites on our ftp site. Another milestone was upgrading our data acquisition and communication systems at 7 SURFRAD and 7 ISIS sites. We accelerated our schedule for these upgrades to provide timely radiation products. These upgrades allow more reliable and near-real time radiation data delivery to the DOE sponsored teams to meet their goals. Lastly, we changed the data rate at the ISIS sites from 3 min to 1 min.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

TEMPI: An Interposed MPI Library with Canonical Representation of MPI Datatypes [Poster]

TEMPI provides a transparent non-contiguous data-handling layer compatible with various MPIs. MPI Datatypes are a powerful abstraction for allowing an MPI implementation to operate on non-contiguous data. CUDA-aware MPI implementations must also manage transfer of such data between the host system and GPU. The non-unique and recursive nature of MPI datatypes mean that providing fast GPU handling is a challenge. The same noncontiguous pattern may be described in a variety of ways, all of which should be treated equivalently by an implementation. This work introduces a novel technique to do this for strided datatypes. Methods for transferring non-contiguous data between the CPU and GPU depends on the properties of the data layout. This work shows that a simple performance model can accurately select the fastest method. Unfortunately, the combination of MPI software and system hardware available may not provide sufficient performance. The contributions of this work are deployed on OLCF Summit through an interposer library which does not require privileged access to the system to use

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗