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DOE OSTI2024

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗

NASA NTRS1962

Estimated Viscosities and Thermal Conductivities of Gases at High Temperatures

Viscosities and thermal conductivities, suitable for heat-transfer calculations, were estimated for about 200 gases in the ground state from 100 to 5000 K and 1-atmosphere pressure. Free radicals were included, but excited states and ions were not. Calculations for the transport coefficients were based upon the Lennard-Jones (12-6) potential for all gases. This potential was selected because: (1) It is one of the most realistic models available and (2) intermolecular force constants can be estimated from physical properties or by other techniques when experimental data are not available; such methods for estimating force constants are not as readily available for other potentials. When experimental viscosity data were available, they were used to obtain the force constants; otherwise the constants were estimated. These constants were then used to calculate both the viscosities and thermal conductivities tabulated in this report. For thermal conductivities of polyatomic gases an Eucken-type correction was made to correct for exchange between internal and translational energies. Though this correction may be rather poor at low temperatures, it becomes more satisfactory with increasing temperature. It was not possible to obtain force constants from experimental thermal conductivity data except for the inert atoms, because most conductivity data are available at low temperatures only (200 to 400 K), the temperature range where the Eucken correction is probably most in error. However, if the same set of force constants is used for both viscosity and thermal conductivity, there is a large degree of cancellation of error when these properties are used in heat-transfer equations such as the Dittus-Boelter equation. It is therefore concluded that the properties tabulated in this report are suitable for heat-transfer calculations of gaseous systems.

HEAT TRANSFER↗

NASA NTRS1976

A method to account for variation of average compressor inlet pressure during instantaneous distortion analyses

Instantaneous distortion analyses compare a time-varying value of an index (or 'surge margin used up') with a critical level (or 'available surge margin' of the compressor) to determine inlet-engine compatibility. Unless freestream conditions or propulsion system controls are changing, it is generally assumed that the available surge margin of the compressor is accurately determined from the steady-state operating point. Results are presented which show that variations of average compressor inlet pressure may occur without changes in freestream conditions or propulsion system controls. The volume dynamics of the compressor will cause these pressure variations to be attenuated and delayed by the time they reach the exit. This will cause the compressor pressure ratio (and available surge margin) to vary with time. A method is presented to calculate the available surge margin as a function of time and incorporate it into an instantaneous distortion analysis. Results show that inlet pressure variations which cause only a small change at the compressor exit can cause a significant variation in the available surge margin.

Burstadt, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Remote estimation of surface moisture over a watershed

The author has identified the following significant results. Contoured analyses of moisture availability, moisture flux, sensible heat flux, thermal inertia, and day and nighttime temperatures over a Missouri watershed for a date in June and in September show that forests and creeks exhibit the highest values of moisture availability, whereas farmlands and villages are relatively dry. The distribution of moisture availability over agricultural districts differs significantly between the two cases. This difference is attributed to a change in the surface's vegetative canopy between June and September, with higher moisture availabilities found in the latter case. Horizontal variations of moisture, however, do indicate some relationship between moisture availability and both local rainfall accumulations and the nature of the terrain.

Kocin, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Comparison of remote measurements of infrared surface temperatures and microwave soil moisture

Scatterometric measurements of active microwave soil water content and radiometric measurements of thermal IR surface temperatures were made simultaneously fron an aircraft flying 400 m over an agricultural region of France after harvesting. The surface temperatures were used to deterine soil moisture availability estimates according to the Carlson (1986) model. Surface temperature or soil moisture availability and microwave soil moisture were correlated. The standard error in the IR temperature and soil moisture availability due to influences other than soil moisture is found to be + or - 2 C. The standard deviation of the temperature/moisture availability is greater than this standard error. It is shown that correlations between soil water content and moisture availability improve with increasing spatial or temporal variance in the measure surface temperatures.

Perry, Eileen M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Development of a shuttle recovery Commercial Materials Processing in Space (CMPS) program

The work performed has covered the following tasks: update commercial users requirements; assess availability of carriers and facilities; shuttle availability assessment; development of optimum accommodations plan; and payload documentation requirements assessment. The results from the first four tasks are presented. To update commercial user requirements, contacts were made with the JEA and CCDS partners to obtain copies of their most recent official flight requests. From these requests the commercial partners' short and long range plans for flight dates, flight frequency, experiment hardware and carriers was determined. A 34 by 44 inch chart was completed to give a snapshot view of the progress of commercialization in space. Further, an assessment was made of the availability of carriers and facilities. Both existing carriers and those under development were identified for use by the commercial partners. A data base was compiled to show the capabilities of the carriers. A shuttle availability assessment was performed using the primary and secondary shuttle manifests released by NASA. Analysis of the manifest produced a flight-by-flight list of flight opportunities available to commercial users. Using inputs from the first three tasks, an Optimum Accommodations Plan was developed. The Accommodation Plan shows the commercial users manifested by flight, the experiment flown, the carrier used and complete list of commercial users that could not be manifested in each calendar year.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Climate data system supports FIRE

The NASA Climate Data System (NCDS) at Goddard Space Flight Center is serving as the FIRE Central Archive, providing a centralized data holding and data cataloging service for the FIRE project. NCDS members are carrying out their responsibilities by holding all reduced observations and data analysis products submitted by individual principal investigators in the agreed upon format, by holding all satellite data sets required for FIRE, by providing copies of any of these data sets to FIRE investigators, and by producing and updating a catalog with information about the FIRE holdings. FIRE researchers were requested to provide their reduced data sets in the Standard Data Format (SDF) to the FIRE Central Archive. This standard format is proving to be of value. An improved SDF document is now available. The document provides an example from an actual FIRE SDF data set and clearly states the guidelines for formatting data in SDF. NCDS has received SDF tapes from a number of investigators. These tapes were analyzed and comments provided to the producers. One product which is now available is William J. Syrett's sodar data product from the Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observation. Sample plots from all SDF tapes submitted to the archive will be available to FSET members. Related cloud products are also available through NCDS. Entries describing the FIRE data sets are being provided for the NCDS on-line catalog. Detailed information for the Extended Time Observations is available in the general FIRE catalog entry. Separate catalog entries are being written for the Cirrus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) and for the Marine Stratocumulus IFO. Short descriptions of each FIRE data set will be installed into the NCDS Summary Catalog.

Olsen, Lola M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

GPS orbit determination at the National Geodetic Survey

The National Geodetic Survey (NGS) independently generates precise ephemerides for all available Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. Beginning in 1991, these ephemerides were produced from double-differenced phase observations solely from the Cooperative International GPS Network (CIGNET) tracking sites. The double-difference technique combines simultaneous observations of two satellites from two ground stations effectively eliminating satellite and ground receiver clock errors, and the Selective Availability (S/A) signal degradation currently in effect. CIGNET is a global GPS tracking network whose primary purpose is to provide data for orbit production. The CIGNET data are collected daily at NGS and are available to the public. Each ephemeris covers a single week and is available within one month after the data were taken. Verification is by baseline repeatability and direct comparison with other ephemerides. Typically, an ephemeris is accurate at a few parts in 10(exp 7). This corresponds to a 10 meter error in the reported satellite positions. NGS is actively investigating methods to improve the accuracy of its orbits, the ultimate goal being one part in 10(exp 8) or better. The ephemerides are generally available to the public through the Coast Guard GPS Information Center or directly from NGS through the Geodetic Information Service. An overview of the techniques and software used in orbit generation will be given, the current status of CIGNET will be described, and a summary of the ephemeris verification results will be presented.

M. S. Schenewerk↗

NASA NTRS1993

Superconducting linear actuator

Special actuators are needed to control the orientation of large structures in space-based precision pointing systems. Electromagnetic actuators that presently exist are too large in size and their bandwidth is too low. Hydraulic fluid actuation also presents problems for many space-based applications. Hydraulic oil can escape in space and contaminate the environment around the spacecraft. A research study was performed that selected an electrically-powered linear actuator that can be used to control the orientation of a large pointed structure. This research surveyed available products, analyzed the capabilities of conventional linear actuators, and designed a first-cut candidate superconducting linear actuator. The study first examined theoretical capabilities of electrical actuators and determined their problems with respect to the application and then determined if any presently available actuators or any modifications to available actuator designs would meet the required performance. The best actuator was then selected based on available design, modified design, or new design for this application. The last task was to proceed with a conceptual design. No commercially-available linear actuator or modification capable of meeting the specifications was found. A conventional moving-coil dc linear actuator would meet the specification, but the back-iron for this actuator would weigh approximately 12,000 lbs. A superconducting field coil, however, eliminates the need for back iron, resulting in an actuator weight of approximately 1000 lbs.

Johnson, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS1993

EVA tools and equipment reference book

This document contains a mixture of tools and equipment used throughout the space shuttle-based extravehicular activity (EVA) program. Promising items which have reached the prototype stage of development are also included, but should not be considered certified ready for flight. Each item is described with a photo, a written discussion, technical specifications, dimensional drawings, and points of contact for additional information. Numbers on the upper left-hand corner of each photo may be used to order specific pictures from NASA and contractor photo libraries. Points of contact were classified as either operational or technical. An operational contact is an engineer from JSC Mission Operations Directorate who is familiar with the basic function and on-orbit use of the tool. A technical contact would be the best source of detailed technical specifications and is typically the NASA subsystem manager. The technical information table for each item uses the following terms to describe the availability or status of each hardware item: Standard - Flown on every mission as standard manifest; Flight specific - Potentially available for flight, not flown every mission (flight certification cannot be guaranteed and recertification may be required); Reference only - Item no longer in active inventory or not recommended for future use, some items may be too application-specific for general use; and Developmental - In the prototype stage only and not yet available for flight. The current availability and certification of any flight-specific tool should be verified with the technical point of contact. Those tools built and fit checked for Hubble Space Telescope maintenance are program dedicated and are not available to other customers. Other customers may have identical tools built from the existing, already certified designs as an optional service.

Fullerton, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Report on Stochastic Fairness Queueing (SFQ) Experiments

SRI International (SRI) has developed an improved queueing algorithm, known as Stochastic Fairness Queueing (SFQ), for best-effort traffic (i.e., traffic that does not require any guaranteed service). SFQ is a probablistic variant of strict fair queueing where instead of a single queue being allocated per flow, a fixed number of queues are used and a hash function maps the IP source and destination to a particular queue. A seed to the hash function is also perturbed occasionally to help distribute the flows amongst different queues when more than one flow maps to the same queue during the lifetime of the flow. SFQ provides 'fair' access by trying to ensure that each flow from source to destination host obtains equal access to the available bandwidth. This report covers a series of experiments performed on DARTnet evaluating the behavior and performance of SFQ against a FIFO queueing discipline. These experiments were designed to show SFQ's advantages and performance, and include tests demonstrating: Fair utilization of available resources; Starvation prevention; Graceful degradation under overload conditions; and Resource usage. In general, the experiments do show that SFQ is better than FIFO queueing at allocating bandwidth equally among a set of flows. SFQ also prevents a stream from dominating the available bandwidth, which seems to be a tendency with FIFO queueing (i.e., if a flow demands more than its share of the available bandwidth, with FIFO queueing that stream receives a disproportionate amount when compared to flows demanding less than their share). Furthermore, SFQ seems to reward 'nice' users of the network by providing a lower variance in delay and more throughput when their resource demand is less than their available share. Both SFQ and FIFO queueing seem to degrade fairly well as the network becomes saturated and to recover well as the network becomes less congested. Not unexpectedly, FIFO queueing is a little more efficient than SFQ-the delays are less and the throughput slightly higher because SFQ requires more processing. However, the performance difference between the two queueing disciplines is relatively small. However, the experiments do point out some interesting behavior. FIFO queueing can behave better than SFQ with seed perturbation. We recommend further evaluation of the hash function and the seed perturbation technique. There are probably weaknesses in their current selection that cause this unexpected behavior. SFQ also seems to possess good scaling properties. To verify this, more experiments with a larger number of streams from more hosts need to be executed and examined, including the staggered introduction of streams. Staggering the streams may prove important, because graphs in the degradation experiment revealed some unexpected increases and decreases in throughput, which should be examined. This may again be due to the interaction of the hash function with the seed perturbation but it may also be related to some other unknown problem.

Denny, Barbara A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Predictive Feedback and Feedforward Control for Systems with Unknown Disturbances

Predictive feedback control has been successfully used in the regulation of plate vibrations when no reference signal is available for feedforward control. However, if a reference signal is available it may be used to enhance regulation by incorporating a feedforward path in the feedback controller. Such a controller is known as a hybrid controller. This paper presents the theory and implementation of the hybrid controller for general linear systems, in particular for structural vibration induced by acoustic noise. The generalized predictive control is extended to include a feedforward path in the multi-input multi-output case and implemented on a single-input single-output test plant to achieve plate vibration regulation. There are cases in acoustic-induce vibration where the disturbance signal is not available to be used by the hybrid controller, but a disturbance model is available. In this case the disturbance model may be used in the feedback controller to enhance performance. In practice, however, neither the disturbance signal nor the disturbance model is available. This paper presents the theory of identifying and incorporating the noise model into the feedback controller. Implementations are performed on a test plant and regulation improvements over the case where no noise model is used are demonstrated.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

NASA NTRS2000

Incremental Parallelization of Non-Data-Parallel Programs Using the Charon Message-Passing Library

Message passing is among the most popular techniques for parallelizing scientific programs on distributed-memory architectures. The reasons for its success are wide availability (MPI), efficiency, and full tuning control provided to the programmer. A major drawback, however, is that incremental parallelization, as offered by compiler directives, is not generally possible, because all data structures have to be changed throughout the program simultaneously. Charon remedies this situation through mappings between distributed and non-distributed data. It allows breaking up the parallelization into small steps, guaranteeing correctness at every stage. Several tools are available to help convert legacy codes into high-performance message-passing programs. They usually target data-parallel applications, whose loops carrying most of the work can be distributed among all processors without much dependency analysis. Others do a full dependency analysis and then convert the code virtually automatically. Even more toolkits are available that aid construction from scratch of message passing programs. None, however, allows piecemeal translation of codes with complex data dependencies (i.e. non-data-parallel programs) into message passing codes. The Charon library (available in both C and Fortran) provides incremental parallelization capabilities by linking legacy code arrays with distributed arrays. During the conversion process, non-distributed and distributed arrays exist side by side, and simple mapping functions allow the programmer to switch between the two in any location in the program. Charon also provides wrapper functions that leave the structure of the legacy code intact, but that allow execution on truly distributed data. Finally, the library provides a rich set of communication functions that support virtually all patterns of remote data demands in realistic structured grid scientific programs, including transposition, nearest-neighbor communication, pipelining, gather/scatter, and redistribution. At the end of the conversion process most intermediate Charon function calls will have been removed, the non-distributed arrays will have been deleted, and virtually the only remaining Charon functions calls are the high-level, highly optimized communications. Distribution of the data is under complete control of the programmer, although a wide range of useful distributions is easily available through predefined functions. A crucial aspect of the library is that it does not allocate space for distributed arrays, but accepts programmer-specified memory. This has two major consequences. First, codes parallelized using Charon do not suffer from encapsulation; user data is always directly accessible. This provides high efficiency, and also retains the possibility of using message passing directly for highly irregular communications. Second, non-distributed arrays can be interpreted as (trivial) distributions in the Charon sense, which allows them to be mapped to truly distributed arrays, and vice versa. This is the mechanism that enables incremental parallelization. In this paper we provide a brief introduction of the library and then focus on the actual steps in the parallelization process, using some representative examples from, among others, the NAS Parallel Benchmarks. We show how a complicated two-dimensional pipeline-the prototypical non-data-parallel algorithm- can be constructed with ease. To demonstrate the flexibility of the library, we give examples of the stepwise, efficient parallel implementation of nonlocal boundary conditions common in aircraft simulations, as well as the construction of the sequence of grids required for multigrid.

VanderWijngaart, Rob F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

World-Wide Web Tools for Locating Planetary Images

The explosive growth of the World-Wide Web (WWW) in the past year has made it feasible to provide interactive graphical tools to assist scientists in locating planetary images. The highest available resolution images of any site of interest can be quickly found on a map or plot, and, if online, displayed immediately on nearly any computer equipped with a color screen, an Internet connection, and any of the free WWW browsers. The same tools may also be of interest to educators, students, and the general public. Image finding tools have been implemented covering most of the solar system: Earth, Mars, and the moons and planets imaged by Voyager. The Mars image-finder, which plots the footprints of all the high-resolution Viking Orbiter images and can be used to display any that are available online, also contains a complete scrollable atlas and hypertext gazetteer to help locating areas. The Earth image-finder is linked to thousands of Shuttle images stored at NASA/JSC, and displays them as red dots on a globe. The Voyager image-finder plots images as dots, by longitude and apparent target size, linked to online images. The locator (URL) for the top-level page is http: //ic-www.arc.nasa.gov/ic/projects/bayes-group/Atlas/. Through the efforts of the Planetary Data System and other organizations, hundreds of thousands of planetary images are now available on CD-ROM, and many of these have been made available on the WWW. However, locating images of a desired site is still problematic, in practice. For example, many scientists studying Mars use digital image maps, which are one third the resolution of Viking Orbiter survey images. When they douse Viking Orbiter images, they often work with photographically printed hardcopies, which lack the flexibility of digital images: magnification, contrast stretching, and other basic image-processing techniques offered by off-the-shelf software. From the perspective of someone working on an experimental image processing technique for super-resolution, the discovery that potential users are often not using the highest resolution already available, nor using conventional image processing techniques, was surprising. This motivated the present work.

Kanefsky, Bob↗

NASA NTRS2009

Investigating Changes in the High-Latitude Topside Ionosphere During Large Magnetic Storms

A search was conducted to locate periods of nearly simultaneous solar-wind and high latitude topside-ionospheric data during magnetic storms. The focus was on the 20-yr interval from 1965 to 1985 when both solar-wind and Alouette/ISIS topside-sounder data are potentially available. The search yielded 125 large magnetic storms (minimum Dst less than 100) and 280 moderate magnetic storms (minimum Dst between -60 and -100). Solar wind data were available for most, but not all, of these storms. A search of the available high-latitude topside electron-density Ne(h) profiles available from the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC), both from manual inspection of 35-mm film ionograms in the 1960s and more recent auto-processing of ISIS-2 topside digital ionograms using the TOPIST software, during 9-day intervals associated with the 125 large magnetic storm minimum Dst times yielded the following results: 31 intervals had 10 or more manual-scaled profiles (21 intervals had more than 100 profiles and 5 of these had more than 1,000 profiles), and 34 intervals had 10 or more TOPIST profiles (2 intervals had more than 100 profiles). In addition, a search of the available Alouette-2, ISIS-1 and ISIS-2 digital ionograms during the above periods has yielded encouraging initial results in that many ISIS-1 ionograms were found for the early time intervals. Future work will include the search for 35-mm film ionograms during selected intervals. This presentation will illustrate the results of this investigation to date.

Fainberg, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Spectral Irradiance as a Function of the Mg II Index for Atmosphere and Climate Modelling

In this paper we present a new method to reconstruct the solar spectrum irradiance in the Ly alpha-400 nm region, and its variability, based on the Mg II index and neutron monitor. Measurements of the solar spectral irradiance available in the literature have been made with different instruments at different times and different spectral ranges. However, climate studies require harmonized data sets. This new approach has the advantage of being independent of the absolute calibration and aging of the instruments. First, the Mg II index is derived using solar spectra from Ly alpha (121 nm) to 410 nm measured from 1978 to 2010 by several space missions. The variability of the spectra with respect to a chosen reference spectrum as a function of time and wavelength is scaled to the derived Mg II index. The set of coefficients expressing the spectral variability can be applied to the chosen reference spectrum to reconstruct the solar spectra within a given time frame or Mg II index values. The accuracy of this method is estimated using two approaches: by direct comparison with particular cases where solar spectra are available from independent measurements, and by calculating the standard deviation between the measured spectra and their reconstruction. From direct comparisons with measurements we obtain an accuracy of about 1 to 2 %, which degrades towards Ly alpha. In a further step, we extend our solar spectral irradiance reconstruction back to the Maunder Minimum introducing the relationship between the Mg II index and the neutron monitor data. Consistent measurements of the Mg II index are not available prior to 1978. However, we observe that over the last three solar cycles, the Mg II index shows strong correlation with the modulation potential determined from the neutron monitor data. Assuming that this correlation can be applied to the past, we reconstruct the Mg II index from the modulation potential back to the Maunder Minimum, and obtain the corresponding solar spectral irradiance reconstruction back to that period. As there is no direct measurement of the spectral irradiance for this period we discuss this methodology in light of the other proposed approaches available in the literature. The use of the cosmogenic isotope data provides a major advantage: it provides information about the solar activity over several thousands years. Using technology of today we can calibrate the solar irradiance against the activity and thus reconstruct it for the times when cosmogenic isotope data are available. This calibration can be re-accessed at any time, if necessary.

Thuillier, Gerard↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether they are more likely to spend those dollars, and whether larger levels of reserves lead to higher cost overruns. Finally, we address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects budgeted without any reserves. Is there a "sweet spot"? How can we derive the maximum benefit associated with risk reduction from reserves while minimizing the effects of reserve spending motivation?

Whitley, Sally↗

NASA NTRS2011

UAS Modeling of the Communication Links Study Results

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is the authority that grants access into, and operations within, the National Airspace System (NAS) for all aircraft, including Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The safe operation of UAS in the NAS must be assured if the full potential of UAS is to be realized and supported by the public and Congress. This report analyzed the communication systems that are needed for the safe operations of UAS in the NAS. Safe operations can be defined as the availability of the required links to carry the information to control the UAS and the return links to allow controllers to know where the UAS is at any given moment as well as how it is performing. This report is the end result of work performed jointly between the FAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)/Kennedy Space Center (NASA KSC). The work was done in support of the Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) Special Committee 203 (SC-203) Control and Communications Working Group. The RTCA is a federal advisory committee to the FAA. Though the work was not under the direction of the working group, a large part of the specific values used in the simulations came from the working group. Specifically, all of the radio links were modeled based on the formulation completed by the working group. This report analyzed three scenarios from RTCA SC-203 that represent how a UAS would operate in the NAS. Each scenario was created using the Satellite Tool Kit (STK) modeling and simulation tool. The flight paths of the UAS were generated and the UAS dynamics were likewise modeled. Then each communication asset such as transmitters, receivers, and antennas were modeled and placed on the appropriate UAS, satellite, or Control Station (CS). After that, the radio links were analyzed for signal strength and antenna blockage, and the overall link performance was analyzed in detail. The goal was to obtain 99.9% availability on all of the radio communication links. In order to ensure the 99.9% availability, certain values for the telemetry transmitter will have to be increased slightly from I watt up to about 4 watts which is reasonable. The results of this analysis show that it is possible to send commands, during the airborne segment, to the Unmanned Aircraft (UA) and have the UA send back the system health and status with high availability of at least 99.9% of the time. This 99.9% availability included the condition of heavy rain at 90 mm/hr as well as interference from adjacent satellites. The link budget values used in this report were based on the work from the working group.

Birr, Richard B.↗