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DOE OSTI2025

Decoding substance use disorder severity from clinical notes using a large language model

Substance use disorder (SUD) poses a major concern due to its detrimental effects on health and society. SUD identification and treatment depend on a variety of factors such as severity, co-determinants (e.g., withdrawal symptoms), and social determinants of health. Existing diagnostic coding systems used by insurance providers, like the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), lack granularity for certain diagnoses, but American clinicians will add this granularity (as that found within the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders classification or DSM-5) as supplemental unstructured text in clinical notes. Traditional natural language processing (NLP) methods face limitations in accurately parsing such diverse clinical language. Large language models (LLMs) offer promise in overcoming these challenges by adapting to diverse language patterns. This study investigates the application of LLMs for extracting severity-related information for various SUD diagnoses from clinical notes. We propose a workflow employing zero-shot learning of LLMs with carefully crafted prompts and post-processing techniques. Through experimentation with Flan-T5, an open-source LLM, we demonstrate its superior recall compared to the rule-based approach. Focusing on 11 categories of SUD diagnoses, we show the effectiveness of LLMs in extracting severity information, contributing to improved risk assessment and treatment planning for SUD patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of fifth- and sixth-order fluctuations of (net-)proton number in Au + Au collisions from phase II of the beam energy scan program at RHIC

We report high-statistics measurements of fifth- and sixth-order factorial cumulants and cumulant ratios of (net-)proton multiplicity distributions in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 7.7–27GeV, using data from the STAR experiment collected during the Beam Energy Scan Phase II at RHIC. Protons and antiprotons are identified at midrapidity (|𝑦| < 0.5) with transverse momentum 0.4 < 𝑝 𝑇 < 2.0GeV/𝑐. The proton factorial cumulants 𝜅 4 , 𝜅 5 , and 𝜅 6 increase with order but exhibit no sign alternation within current uncertainties, offering no evidence for a two-component structure in the proton multiplicity distribution, as might be expected near a first-order phase transition. The cumulant ratios 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 and 𝐶 6 /𝐶 2 fluctuate around zero in collisions at 0–40% centrality. The results are consistent with both the negative predictions from lattice QCD and the positive trends obtained from the ultrarelativistic quantum molecular dynamics (UrQMD) model. At $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ ≳ 27GeV, the 𝐶 4 /𝐶 2 and 𝐶 5 /𝐶 1 results are compatible with predictions from lattice QCD, functional renormalization group (FRG), and hadron resonance gas (HRG) models, while UrQMD describes the data better at lower energies. Here, these measurements place constraints on baryon number fluctuations and offer valuable insights into the QCD phase structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A declining major merger fraction with redshift in the local Universe from the largest-yet catalogue of major and minor mergers in SDSS

It is difficult to accurately identify galaxy mergers and it is an even larger challenge to classify them by their mass ratio or merger stage. In previous work we used a suite of simulated mergers to create a classification technique that uses linear discriminant analysis to identify major and minor mergers. Here, we apply this technique to 1.3 million galaxies from the SDSS DR16 photometric catalogue and present the probability that each galaxy is a major or minor merger, splitting the classifications by merger stages (early, late, post-coalescence). We present publicly available imaging predictor values and all of the above classifications for one of the largest-yet samples of galaxies. We measure the major and minor merger fraction (f merg ) and build a mass-complete sample of galaxies, which we bin as a function of stellar mass and redshift. For the major mergers, we find a positive slope of fmerg with stellar mass and negative slope of f merg with redshift between stellar masses of 10.5 < M * (log M ⊙ ) < 11.6 and redshifts of 0.03 < z < 0.19. We are able to reproduce an artificial positive slope of the major merger fraction with redshift when we do not bin for mass or craft a complete sample, demonstrating the importance of mass completeness and mass binning. Further, we determine that the positive trend of the major merger fraction with stellar mass is consistent with a hierarchical assembly scenario. The negative trend with redshift requires that an additional assembly mechanism, such as baryonic feedback, dominates in the local Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spectral-partitioned Kohn-Sham density functional theory

Here we introduce a general, variational scheme for systematic approximation of a given Kohn-Sham free-energy functional by partitioning the density matrix into distinct spectral domains, each of which may be spanned by an independent diagonal representation without requirement of mutual orthogonality. It is shown that by generalizing the entropic contribution to the free energy to allow for independent representations in each spectral domain, the free energy becomes an upper bound to the exact (unpartitioned) Kohn-Sham free energy, attaining this limit as the representations approach Kohn-Sham eigenfunctions. A numerical procedure is devised for calculation of the generalized entropy associated with spectral partitioning of the density matrix. The result is a powerful framework for Kohn-Sham calculations of systems whose occupied subspaces span multiple energy regimes. As a case in point, we apply the proposed framework to warm- and hot-dense matter described by finite-temperature density functional theory, where at high energies the density matrix is represented by that of the free-electron gas, while at low energies it is variationally optimized. We derive expressions for the spectral-partitioned Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian, atomic forces, and macroscopic stresses within the projector-augmented wave (PAW) and the norm-conserving pseudopotential methods. It is demonstrated that at high temperatures, spectral partitioning facilitates accurate calculations at dramatically reduced computational cost. Moreover, as temperature is increased, fewer exact Kohn-Sham states are required for a given accuracy, leading to further reductions in computational cost. Finally, it is shown that standard multiprojector expansions of electronic orbitals within atomic spheres in the PAW method lack sufficient completeness at high temperatures. Spectral partitioning provides a systematic solution for this fundamental problem.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transcriptome-wide association analysis identifies candidate susceptibility genes for prostate-specific antigen levels in men without prostate cancer

Deciphering the genetic basis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels may improve their utility for prostate cancer (PCa) screening. Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from 95,768 PCa-free men, we conducted a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) to examine impacts of genetically predicted gene expression on PSA. Analyses identified 41 statistically significant (p < 0.05/12,192 = 4.10 × 10 –6 ) associations in whole blood and 39 statistically significant (p < 0.05/13,844 = 3.61 × 10 –6 ) associations in prostate tissue, with 18 genes associated in both tissues. Cross-tissue analyses identified 155 statistically significantly (p < 0.05/22,249 = 2.25 × 10 –6 ) genes. Out of 173 unique PSA-associated genes across analyses, we replicated 151 (87.3%) in a TWAS of 209,318 PCa-free individuals from the Million Veteran Program. Based on conditional analyses, we found 20 genes (11 single tissue, nine cross-tissue) that were associated with PSA levels in the discovery TWAS that were not attributable to a lead variant from a GWAS. Ten of these 20 genes replicated, and two of the replicated genes had colocalization probability of >0.5: CCNA2 and HIST1H2BN. Six of the 20 identified genes are not known to impact PCa risk. Fine-mapping based on whole blood and prostate tissue revealed five protein-coding genes with evidence of causal relationships with PSA levels. Of these five genes, four exhibited evidence of colocalization and one was conditionally independent of previous GWAS findings. These results yield hypotheses that should be further explored to improve understanding of genetic factors underlying PSA levels.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

CO 2 to Bioplastics: Beneficial Re-use of Carbon Emissions from Coal-fired Power Plants using Microalgae

This project sought to address the technical and economic barriers to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and utilization using microalgae. Specifically, a dual photobioreactor (PBR)/open raceway pond (ORP) cultivation system was evaluated with respect to capital and operational costs, productivity, and culture health, and compared to an ORP-only cultivation system. In the dual (or “hybrid”) system, a cyclic flow PBR was used to provide inoculum for two open raceway ponds after each harvest, with the hypothesis that this PBR + pond system should result in improved performance compared to traditional raceway ponds. Two other raceway ponds were operated conventionally as a control, the experiments being performed at Duke Energy’s East Bend Station in northern KY using coal-derived flue gas as the CO 2 source. Although algae productivity achieved was mediocre due to the fact that the experiments had to be performed late in the growing season when climatic conditions were not optimal for high growth, the hybrid cultivation system showed a higher level of algae productivity (statistically significant) compared to the traditional ponds. In order to realize the maximum value of the algal biomass produced, fractionation of the biomass was examined. Bioplastic compounding and material characterization was subsequently performed using three feed stocks: whole biomass, lipid-extracted biomass and the proteinaceous residue from full fractionation. In general, the whole and lipid-extracted biomass gave similar results in terms of the properties of the resulting bioplastics, while the proteinaceous residue showed promise for the production of a polybutylene adipate terephthalate (PBAT) blend. Finally, sustainability assessment of a putative biorefinery system was conducted, including techno-economic and life cycle impact assessment. Nine different production scenarios were considered, comprising combinations of the three different biomass growth architectures (ORP, PBR and dual PBR-ORP systems) coupled with three different algae biomass processing pathways (drying only, lipid extraction and fractionation). Results show that the minimum selling price of the bioplastic feed stock (BPFS) is within the realm of economic competition with prices as low as $970 USD tonne -1 . Additionally, life cycle impact assessment results indicate drastic improvements in performance of the produced BPFS, with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions ranging between 67 and 116% compared to a petroleum based plastic feedstock.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

Accepted Background In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Results Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762–36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Conclusions Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining Machine Learning and Comparative Effectiveness Methodology to Study Primary Care Pharmacotherapy Pathways for Veterans With Depression

Our objective is to demonstrate an innovative method combining machine learning with comparative effectiveness research techniques and to investigate a hitherto unstudied question about the effectiveness of common prescribing patterns. For Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans with major depressive disorder, we generate pharmacotherapy pathways (of antidepressants) using process mining and machine learning. We select the medication episodes that were started at subtherapeutic doses by the first assigned primary care physician and observe the paths that those medication episodes follow. Using 2-stage least squares, we test the effectiveness of starting at a low dose and staying low for longer versus ramping up fast while balancing observable and unobservable characteristics of patients and providers through instrumental variables. We leverage predetermined provider practice patterns as instruments. We collected outpatient pharmacy data for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, patient and provider characteristics (as control variables), and the instruments for our cohort. All data were extracted for the period between 2006 and 2020. There is a statistically significant positive effect (0.68, 95% CI 0.11–1.25) of “ramping up fast” on engagement in care. When we examine the effect of “ramping up slow”, we see an insignificant negative impact on engagement in care (−0.82, 95% CI −1.89 to 0.25). As expected, the probability of drop-out also seems to have a negative effect on engagement in care (−0.39, 95% CI −0.94 to 0.17). We further validate these results by testing with medication possession ratios calculated periodically as an alternative engagement in care metric. Our findings contradict the “Start low, go slow” adage, indicating that ramping up the dose of an antidepressant faster has a significantly positive effect on engagement in care for our population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Human Coronavirus 229E Infection Alters Histone Proteoforms

Viruses rely on host machinery to replicate, and growing evidence demonstrates that they utilize host epigenetic regulation, including histone modification, to modulate host gene expression for their benefit. Herein, we employed top-down proteomics to quantify histone proteoforms in a model human lung cell line following human coronavirus 229E (HCoV-229E) infection and compared them to mock-infected controls. A total of 572 proteoforms from mock-infected and HCoV-229E infected human lung fibroblast (MRC5) cells (N = 5 per condition) were identified; this included 461 histone proteoforms that were assigned to H2A, H2B, H3, or H4. 200 histone proteoforms were quantifiable, and differential abundance analysis revealed several statistically significant changes in both reversible post-translational modifications (e.g. phosphorylation, acetylation) and the truncation states of core histones. Notably, we found decreased abundance of C-terminally truncated histone H2A and N-terminally truncated histone H3 in HCoV-229E-infected samples. These findings underscore the power of top-down proteomics to resolve unique truncation states of proteoforms and support the hypothesis that viruses alter histone length (removing regulatory sites) to influence host gene expression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of gas chromatographic pattern recognition and classification tools for compliance and forensic analyses of fuels: A review

Gas chromatography (GC) is undoubtedly the analytical technique of choice for analyzing the composition of petroleum-based fuels. Over the past twenty years, as comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) has evolved, fuel analysis has often been highlighted in scientific reports, as their complexity allows for illustration of the impressive peak capacity gains afforded by GC×GC. Indeed, several research groups in recent years have applied GC×GC and chemometrics to demonstrate the potential of these analytical tools to address important compliance (tax evasion, tax credits, physical quality standards) and forensic (arson investigations, oil spills) applications involving fuels. None the less, routine use of GC×GC in forensic laboratories has been limited largely by (1) legal and regulatory guidelines, (2) lack of chemometrics training, and (3) concerns about the reproducibility of GC×GC. The goal of this review is to highlight recent advances in one-dimensional GC (1D-GC) and GC×GC analyses of fuels for compliance and forensic applications, in an effort to assist scientists in overcoming the aforementioned hindrances. An introduction to 1D-GC principles, GC×GC technology (column stationary phases and modulators) and several chemometric techniques will be provided. More specifically, chemometric techniques will be broken down into (1) signal pre-processing, (2) peak decomposition, identification and quantification, and (3) classification and pattern recognition. Examples of compliance and forensic applications will be discussed, with particular emphasis on the demonstrated success of the employed chemometric techniques. Overall, this review will hopefully make 1D-GC and GC×GC coupled with chemometric data analysis tools more accessible to the larger scientific community, and aid in eventual widespread standardization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Health Care Usage During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Adoption of Telemedicine: Retrospective Study of Chronic Disease Cohorts

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated telehealth adoption across disease cohorts of patients. For many patients, routine medical care was no longer an option, and others chose not to visit medical offices in order to minimize COVID-19 exposure. In this study, we take a comprehensive multidisease approach in studying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care usage and the adoption of telemedicine through the first 12 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: We studied the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on in-person health care usage and telehealth adoption across chronic diseases to understand differences in telehealth adoption across disease cohorts and patient demographics (such as the Social Vulnerability Index [SVI]). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 6 different disease cohorts (anxiety: n=67,578; depression: n=45,570; diabetes: n=81,885; kidney failure: n=29,284; heart failure: n=21,152; and cancer: n=35,460). We used summary statistics to characterize changes in usage and regression analysis to study how patient characteristics relate to in-person health care and telehealth adoption and usage during the first 12 months of the pandemic. Results: We observed a reduction in in-person health care usage across disease cohorts (ranging from 10% to 24%). For most diseases we study, telehealth appointments offset the reduction in in-person visits. Furthermore, for anxiety and depression, the increase in telehealth usage exceeds the reduction in in-person visits (by up to 5%). We observed that younger patients and men have higher telehealth usage after accounting for other covariates. Patients from higher SVI areas are less likely to use telehealth; however, if they do, they have a higher number of telehealth visits, after accounting for other covariates. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic affected health care usage across diseases, and the role of telehealth in replacing in-person visits varies by disease cohort. Understanding these differences can inform current practices and provides opportunities to further guide modalities of in-person and telehealth visits. Critically, further study is needed to understand barriers to telehealth service usage for patients in higher SVI areas. A better understanding of the role of social determinants of health may lead to more support for patients and help individual health care providers improve access to care for patients with chronic conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of prognostic factors, oncologic outcomes, and management for primary and recurrent squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva

Objective: To evaluate prognostic factors, outcomes, and management patterns of patients treated for squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva. Methods: One hundred sixty-four women were retrospectively identified with primary squamous cell carcinoma of the vulva treated at our institution between 1/1996–12/2018. Descriptive statistics were performed on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. The χ 2 tests and t-tests were used to compare categorical variables and continuous variables, respectively. Recurrence free survival (RFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier estimates, the log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median follow-up was 52.5 months. Five-year RFS was 67.9%, 60.0%, 42.1%, and 20.0% for stage I–IV, respectively. Five-year DSS was 86.2%, 81.6%, 65.0%, and 42.9% for stage I–IV, respectively. On multivariate analysis, positive margins predicted overall RFS (hazard ratio [HR]=3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18–10.73; p=0.025), while presence of lichen sclerosus on pathology (HR=2.78; 95% CI=1.30–5.91; p=0.008) predicted local RFS. OS was predicted by nodal involvement (HR=2.51; 95% CI=1.02–6.13; p=0.043) and positive margins (HR=5.19; 95% CI=2.03–13.26; p=0.001). Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved RFS (p=0.016) and DSS (p=0.012) in node-positive patients. Median survival after treatment of local, groin, and pelvic/distant recurrence was 52, 8, and 5 months, respectively. Conclusion: For primary treatment, more conservative surgical approaches can be considered with escalation of treatment in patients with concurrent precursor lesions, positive margins, and/or nodal involvement. Further studies are warranted to improve risk stratification in order to optimize treatment paradigms for vulvar cancer patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A transcriptome software comparison for the analyses of treatments expected to give subtle gene expression responses

Background: In this comparative study we evaluate the performance of four software tools: DNAstar-D (DESeq2), DNAstar-E (edgeR), CLC Genomics and Partek Flow for identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) using a transcriptome of E. coli. The RNA-seq data are from the effect of below-background radiation 5.5 nGy total dose (0.2nGy/hr) on E. coli grown shielded from natural radiation 655 m below ground in a pre-World War II steel vault. The gene expression response to three supplemented sources of radiation designed to mimic natural background, 1952 – 5720 nGy in total dose (71–208 nGy/hr), are compared to this “radiation-deprived” treatment. In addition, RNA-seq data of Caenorhabditis elegans nematode from similar radiation treatments was analyzed by three of the software packages. Results: In E. coli, the four software programs identified one of the supplementary sources of radiation (KCl) to evoke about 5 times more transcribed genes than the minus-radiation treatment (69–114 differentially expressed genes, DEGs), and so the rest of the analyses used this KCl vs “Minus” comparison. After imposing a 30-read minimum cutoff, one of the DNAStar options shared two of the three steps (mapping, normalization, and statistic) with Partek Flow (they both used median of ratios to normalize and the DESeq2 statistical package), and these two programs identified the highest number of DEGs in common with each other (53). In contrast, when the programs used different approaches in each of the three steps, between 31 and 40 DEGs were found in common. Regarding the extent of expression differences, three of the four programs gave high fold-change results (15–178 fold), but one (DNAstar’s DESeq2) resulted in more conservative fold-changes (1.5–3.5). In a parallel study comparing three qPCR commercial validation software programs, these programs also gave variable results as to which genes were significantly regulated. Similarly, the C. elegans analysis showed exaggerated fold-changes in CLC and DNAstar’s edgeR while DNAstar-D was more conservative. Conclusions: Regarding the extent of expression (fold-change), and considering the subtlety of the very low level radiation treatments, in E. coli three of the four programs gave what we consider exaggerated fold-change results (15 – 178 fold), but one (DNAstar’s DESeq2) gave more realistic fold-changes (1.5–3.5). When RT-qPCR validation comparisons to transcriptome results were carried out, they supported the more conservative DNAstar-D’s expression results. When another model organism’s (nematode) response to these radiation differences was similarly analyzed, DNAstar-D also resulted in the most conservative expression patterns. Therefore, we would propose DESeq2 (“DNAstar-D”) as an appropriate software tool for differential gene expression studies for treatments expected to give subtle transcriptome responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Regional differences in tobacco smoking and lung cancer in Portugal in 2018: a population-based analysis using nationwide incidence and mortality data

Objectives: This study aims to estimate the proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal in 2018, complemented by trends in incidence and mortality, by sex and region. Design: Cancer cases for 1998–2011 and cancer deaths for 1991–2018 were obtained from population-based registries and Statistics Portugal, respectively. We projected cases for 2018 and used reported deaths for the same year to estimate, using Peto’s method, the number and proportion of lung cancer cases and deaths caused by tobacco smoking in 2018. We calculated the age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in each year of diagnosis and death. We fitted a joinpoint regression to the observed data to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in the rates. Setting: Portugal. Results: In 2018, an estimated 3859 cases and 3192 deaths from lung cancer were attributable to tobacco smoking in Portugal, with men presenting a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 82.6% (n=3064) for incidence and 84.1% (n=2749) for mortality, while in women those values were 51.0% (n=795) and 42.7% (n=443), respectively. In both sexes and metrics, the Azores were the region with the highest PAF and the Centre with the lowest. During 1998–2011, the APC for incidence ranged from 0.6% to 3.0% in men and 3.6% to 7.9% in women, depending on region, with mortality presenting a similar pattern between sexes. Conclusion: Exposure to tobacco smoking has accounted for most of the lung cancer cases and deaths estimated in Portugal in 2018. Differential patterns of tobacco consumption across the country, varying implementation of primary prevention programmes and differences in personal cancer awareness may have contributed to the disparities observed. Primary prevention of lung cancer remains a public health priority, particularly among women.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impact of spectroscopic incompleteness in direct calibration of redshift distributions for weak lensing surveys

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurate distributions of galaxy redshifts is a critical aspect of weak lensing cosmology experiments. One of the methods used to estimate and validate redshift distributions is to apply weights to a spectroscopic sample, so that their weighted photometry distribution matches the target sample. In this work, we estimate the selection bias in redshift that is introduced in this procedure. We do so by simulating the process of assembling a spectroscopic sample (including observer-assigned confidence flags) and highlight the impacts of spectroscopic target selection and redshift failures. We use the first year (Y1) weak lensing analysis in Dark Energy Survey (DES) as an example data set but the implications generalize to all similar weak lensing surveys. We find that using colour cuts that are not available to the weak lensing galaxies can introduce biases of up to Δz ∼ 0.04 in the weighted mean redshift of different redshift intervals (Δz ∼ 0.015 in the case most relevant to DES). To assess the impact of incompleteness in spectroscopic samples, we select only objects with high observer-defined confidence flags and compare the weighted mean redshift with the true mean. We find that the mean redshift of the DES Y1 weak lensing sample is typically biased at the Δz = 0.005−0.05 level after the weighting is applied. The bias we uncover can have either sign, depending on the samples and redshift interval considered. For the highest redshift bin, the bias is larger than the uncertainties in the other DES Y1 redshift calibration methods, justifying the decision of not using this method for the redshift estimations. We discuss several methods to mitigate this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗