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DOE OSTI2022

Linking Friction Scales from Nano to Macro via Avalanches

Abstract Steady-state fluctuations in the friction force of molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ), a prototypical lamellar solid, were analyzed experimentally for newton-scale forces and computationally via molecular dynamics simulations for nanonewton-scale forces. A mean field model links the statics and the dynamics of the friction behavior across these eight orders of magnitude in friction force and six orders of magnitude in friction force fluctuations (i.e., avalanches). Both the statistics and dynamics of the avalanches match model predictions, indicating that friction can be characterized as a series of avalanches with properties that are predictable over a wide range of scales.

Salners, Tyler (ORCID:0000000332647944)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗

DOE OSTI2022

Statistical analysis on random quantum circuit sampling by Sycamore and Zuchongzhi quantum processors

Random quantum circuit sampling, a task to sample bit strings from a random quantum circuit, is considered a suitable benchmark task to demonstrate the outperformance of quantum computers even with noisy qubits. Recently, random quantum circuit sampling was performed on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits [Nature (London) 574, 505 (2019)] and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 qubits [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 180501 (2021)]. Here, we analyze and compare the statistical properties of the outputs of the random quantum circuit sampling by the Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors. Using the Marchenko-Pastur law of random matrices of bit strings and the Wasssertein distances between bit strings, we find that the statistical properties of Sycamore bit strings are quite different from those of Zuchongzhi bit strings, while both processors score similar values of linear cross-entropy fidelity for random circuit sampling. Some bit strings sampled by the Zuchongzhi processor pass the NIST random number tests while both Sycamore and Zuchongzhi processors show similar patterns in the heat maps of bit strings. Zuchongzhi bit strings are much closer to classical uniform random bits than those of Sycamore. It is shown that the statistical properties of bit strings of both random quantum circuits change little as the depth of the random quantum circuits increases. Our findings raise a question about the computational reliability of noisy quantum processors because two quantum processors with similar noise levels and similar qubit structures produced statistically different outputs for the same random quantum circuit sampling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Software Development for Data Visualization and Analysis of PN-Diodes & MOSFET Devices

The U.S. Department of Energy has a broad mission to ensure the nation’s security by addressing ongoing environmental challenges, developing novel energy production technologies, and mitigating nuclear security concerns. These efforts benefit from developing more effective semiconductor materials and devices. The research discussed in this report aims to further the development of these new electronics by improving implementations of vertical device structures, which offer theoretically better performance compared to lateral structures. Specifically, it reviews the background and development of a new and easy-to-use program for data processing and analysis from experiments run on vertical gallium nitride power devices. Current vertical structures fall short in critical performance metrics, such as On-Resistance and Breakdown Voltage, due to poor management of the device’s electric field. Junction termination extensions, or JTEs, are a field management technique that increases a device’s resilience to expected failure modes by controlling its surface electric fields. Each JTE design requires significant experimental validation, consisting of hundreds of tested devices, each outputting an enormous set of data points. The new software includes multiple methods of filtering large sets of device testing data to identify and remove flawed devices, automate device analyses, and provide statistical breakdowns for four metrics used to define the effectiveness of the JTE and the current carrying capacity of the device. These results can then be related back to fabrication techniques and device design, and in the future, be combined with processing simulations to further improve our understanding of the JTE mechanisms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing Reactor Operations from Realistic Simulated Environmental Samples: Combining High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics

Environmental sampling is a common technique employed by inspectors and facility operators in nuclear safeguards, proliferation detection, and process monitoring contexts. Interpreting measurements performed on samples or collections of samples and ensuring the information extracted is accurate and precise is difficult. To date, these analyses have relied on simulated data to enable systematic studies; however, these models are inherently limited by the fidelity of the models and the implicit spatial averaging of isotopic composition or other signatures of interest. To advance this capability, we have refined the spatial discretization and expanded the range of physics in the simulation codes we use to perform reactor simulations and depletion calculations. This allows us to generate data that are more representative of real environmental samples, especially for the length scale of the isotopic composition and associated variation. Accordingly, these new data allow a more realistic assessment of traditional and new data analytic analysis methods. Here we present motivation for developing reactor simulations using high-performance computing methods and resources, impacts of these new simulations on our assessment of data analysis and interpretation methods, and initial results of developing and systematically testing data analytic methods designed to overcome the challenges expected of real-world samples. We also quantify the performance of these analyses using defensible statistical methods.

Dayman, Ken J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust verification of stochastic simulation codes

We introduce a robust verification tool for computational codes, which we call Stochastic Robust Extrapolation based Error Quantification (StREEQ). Unlike the prevalent Grid Convergence Index (GCI) [1] method, our approach is suitable for both stochastic and deterministic computational codes and is generalizable to any number of discretization variables. Building on ideas introduced in the Robust Verification [2] approach, we estimate the converged solution and orders of convergence with uncertainty using multiple fits of a discretization error model. In contrast to Robust Verification, we perform these fits to many bootstrap samples yielding a larger set of predictions with smoother statistics. Here, bootstrap resampling is performed on the lack-of-fit errors for deterministic code responses, and directly on the noisy data set for stochastic responses. This approach lends a degree of robustness to the overall results, capable of yielding precise verification results for sufficiently resolved data sets, and appropriately expanding the uncertainty when the data set does not support a precise result. For stochastic responses, a credibility assessment is also performed to give the analyst an indication of the trustworthiness of the results. Furthermore, this approach is suitable for both code and solution verification, and is particularly useful for solution verification of high-consequence simulations..

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Beyond the two-point correlation: Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with density-perturbation moments

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) on the large-scale cosmic structure (LSS) is an important step in understanding properties of the early Universe, specifically in distinguishing between different inflationary models. Measuring PNG relies on evaluating the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. New summary statistics beyond the two- and three-point correlation functions in configuration space and their Fourier-space counterparts, the power- and bispectrum may provide increased sensitivity. We introduce a new method for extracting the PNG signal imprinted on the LSS by using the first three Gaussian moments of the normalized correlation in density perturbations, evaluated on varying distance scales. We aim to assess this method’s sensitivity to local PNG, parameterized by f NL . We performed spherical convolutions on a range of scales on dark-matter-halo simulations to measure the scale-dependent correlations in the density field. From these, we computed the first three moments and compared them to a model expectation vector, parameterized to the second power in f NL . Our method provides about 21% improvement in sensitivity to f NL with respect to using the two-point correlation function alone. Notably, we find that the second moment alone carries nearly as much constraining power as the mean, highlighting the potential of higher order statistics. Given its simplicity and efficiency, this framework is well suited for application to current and upcoming large-scale surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

early universe↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Probabilistic Shock Initiation Thresholds of Energetic Materials Through Evolution of Thermal-Mechanical Dissipation and Reactive Heating

The ignition threshold of an energetic material (EM) quantifies the macroscopic conditions for the onset of self-sustaining chemical reactions. The threshold is an important theoretical and practical measure of material attributes that relate to safety and reliability. Historically, the thresholds are measured experimentally. In this work, we present a new Lagrangian computational framework for establishing the probabilistic ignition thresholds of heterogeneous EM out of the evolutions of coupled mechanical-thermal-chemical processes using mesoscale simulations. Furthermore, the simulations explicitly account for microstructural heterogeneities, constituent properties, and interfacial processes and capture processes responsible for the development of material damage and the formation of hotspots in which chemical reactions initiate. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, heat conduction, reactive chemical heating, gaseous product generation, and convective heat transfer. To determine the ignition threshold, the minimum macroscopic loading required to achieve self-sustaining chemical reactions with a rate of reactive heat generation exceeding the rate of heat loss due to conduction and other dissipative mechanisms is determined. Probabilistic quantification of the processes and the thresholds are obtained via the use of statistically equivalent microstructure sample sets (SEMSS). The predictions are in agreement with available experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints

Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Minimization of Disorder as a Key Design Principle for Natural Sizes of Light Harvesting 2 Complexes

The light harvesting 2 (LH2) complex of purple bacteria has excellent energy conversion efficiency. Clarifying the design principle behind such efficiency at the atomistic level is crucial for understanding its structure–function relationship and can be utilized for the design of artificial light harvesting systems. To this end, we conducted comprehensive computational investigation of the dynamical and statistical nature of electronic excited states of pigment molecules in a natural LH2 complex with 9-fold symmetry and its two non-natural in silico analogues with 6- and 12-fold symmetries. To ensure reliable and efficient all-atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, we combined a well established interpolation approach for the construction of the potential energy surface with a neural network machine learning approach. Outcomes of these calculations clarify that non-natural forms of LH2-type complexes have significantly larger quasistatic disorder than those for the natural one. In addition, non-natural systems have more disruptions of the hydrogen bonding, underscoring its crucial role for reducing the disorder. On the other hand, local environmental dynamics are relatively insensitive to the structural changes although there is moderate enhancement in the anharmonic or interatomic components for the synthetic ones. These findings based on all-atomistic simulations provide direct computational evidence that the structure and sizes of natural LH2 complexes are designed to minimize the energetic disorder. We analyze quantitative implications of these for the energy transferring capability of the LH2 complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increasing sensitivity of dryland vegetation greenness to precipitation due to rising atmospheric CO 2

Water availability plays a critical role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in low- and mid-latitude regions. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to precipitation strongly regulates global vegetation dynamics and their responses to drought, yet sensitivity changes in response to climate change remain poorly understood. Here we use long-term satellite observations combined with a dynamic statistical learning approach to examine changes in the sensitivity of vegetation greenness to precipitation over the past four decades. We observe a robust increase in precipitation sensitivity (0.624% yr –1 ) for drylands, and a decrease (–0.618% yr –1 ) for wet regions. Using model simulations, we show that the contrasting trends between dry and wet regions are caused by elevated atmospheric CO 2 (eCO 2 ). eCO 2 universally decreases the precipitation sensitivity by reducing leaf-level transpiration, particularly in wet regions. However, in drylands, this leaf-level transpiration reduction is overridden at the canopy scale by a large proportional increase in leaf area. The increased sensitivity for global drylands implies a potential decrease in ecosystem stability and greater impacts of droughts in these vulnerable ecosystems under continued global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Minimal cyclic behavior in sheared amorphous solids

Although jammed packings of soft spheres exist in potential energy landscapes with a vast number of minima, when subjected to cyclic shear they may revisit the same configurations repeatedly. Simple hysteretic spin models, in which particle rearrangements are represented by interacting spin flips called hysterons, capture many features of this periodic behavior. Yet it has been unclear to what extent individual rearrangements can be described by such binary objects and how such objects interact with one another. Using a particularly sensitive algorithm, we identify rearrangements in simulated jammed packings and select pairs of rearrangements that undo one another to create periodic cyclic behavior. We find that the rearrangement pairs surprisingly persist down to the smallest increments in strain, even in the smallest systems we can study. We explore the statistics of these rearrangement pairs and find that there is a relation between the amount of hysteresis and the energy drop and mean-square displacement of the particles; these results are inconsistent with the scaling found in models that treat rearrangements as localized buckling events. Finally, our analysis shows that there is no clean distinction between the particle motions that represent the identity of a single, individual rearrangement and the particle motions that lead to interactions between separated rearrangements or hysterons. These results offer insight into how complex systems such as amorphous solids can reach a limit cycle.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Situating the Vector Density Approach Among Contemporary Continuum Theories of Dislocation Dynamics

Abstract For the past century, dislocations have been understood to be the carriers of plastic deformation in crystalline solids. However, their collective behavior is still poorly understood. Progress in understanding the collective behavior of dislocations has primarily come in one of two modes: the simulation of systems of interacting discrete dislocations and the treatment of density measures of varying complexity that are considered as continuum fields. A summary of contemporary models of continuum dislocation dynamics is presented. These include, in order of complexity, the two-dimensional statistical theory of dislocations, the field dislocation mechanics treating the total Kröner–Nye tensor, vector density approaches that treat geometrically necessary dislocations on each slip system of a crystal, and high-order theories that examine the effect of dislocation curvature and distribution over orientation. Each of theories contain common themes, including statistical closure of the kinetic dislocation transport equations and treatment of dislocation reactions such as junction formation. An emphasis is placed on how these common themes rely on closure relations obtained by analysis of discrete dislocation dynamics experiments. The outlook of these various continuum theories of dislocation motion is then discussed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Intermittency and Dissipative Structures Arising from Relativistic Magnetized Turbulence

Abstract Kinetic simulations of relativistic turbulence have significantly advanced our understanding of turbulent particle acceleration. Recent progress has highlighted the need for an updated acceleration theory that can account for particle acceleration within the plasma’s coherent structures. Here, we investigate how intermittency modeling connects statistical fluctuations in turbulence to regions of high-energy dissipation. This connection is established by employing a generalized She–Leveque model to characterize the exponents ζ p for the structure functions S p ∝ l ζ p . The fitting of the scaling exponents provides us with a measure of the codimension of the dissipative structures, for which we subsequently determine the filling fraction. We perform our analysis for a range of magnetizations σ and relative fluctuation amplitudes δ B 0 / B 0 . We find that increasing values of σ and δ B 0 / B 0 allow the turbulent cascade to break sheetlike structures into smaller regions of dissipation that resemble chains of flux ropes. However, as their dissipation measure increases, the dissipative regions become less volume filling. With this work, we aim to inform future turbulent acceleration theories that incorporate particle energization from interactions with coherent structures within relativistic turbulence.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗