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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Systematic and statistical uncertainties in simulated r -process abundances due to uncertain nuclear masses

Unknown nuclear masses are a major source of nuclear physics uncertainty for r -process nucleosynthesis calculations. Here we examine the systematic and statistical uncertainties that arise in r -process abundance predictions due to uncertainties in the masses of nuclear species on the neutron-rich side of stability. There is a long history of examining systematic uncertainties by the application of a variety of different mass models to r-process calculations. Here we expand upon such efforts by examining six DFT mass models, where we capture the full impact of each mass model by updating the other nuclear properties — including neutron capture rates, β-decay lifetimes, and β-delayed neutron emission probabilities — that depend on the masses. Unlike systematic effects, statistical uncertainties in the r-process pattern have just begun to be explored. Here we apply a global Monte Carlo approach, starting from the latest FRDM masses and considering random mass variations within the FRDM r ms error. Here, we find in each approach that uncertain nuclear masses produce dramatic uncertainties in calculated r -process yields, which can be reduced in upcoming experimental campaigns.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Short-Term Solar Forecasting Performance of Popular Machine Learning Algorithms: Preprint

A framework for assessing the performance of short-term solar forecasting is presented in conjunction with a range of numerical results using global horizontal irradiation (GHI) from the open-source Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) data network. A suite of popular machine learning algorithms is compared according to a set of statistically distinct metrics and benchmarked against the persistence-of-cloudiness forecast and a cloud motion forecast. Results show significant improvement compared to the benchmarks with trade-offs among the machine learning algorithms depending on the desired error metric. Training inputs include time series observations of GHI for a history of years, historical weather and atmospheric measurements, and corresponding date and time stamps such that training sensitivities might be inferred. Prediction outputs are GHI forecasts for 1, 2, 3, and 4 hours ahead of the issue time, and they are made for every month of the year for 7 locations. Photovoltaic power and energy outputs can then be made using the solar forecasts to better understand power system impacts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The source-lens clustering effect in the context of lensing tomography and its self-calibration

Cosmic shear can only be measured where there are galaxies. This source-lens clustering (SLC) effect has two sources, intrinsic source clustering and cosmic magnification (magnification/size bias). Lensing tomography can suppress the former. However, this reduction is limited by the existence of photo-z error and nonzero redshift bin width. Furthermore, SLC induced by cosmic magnification cannot be reduced by lensing tomography. Through N-body simulations, we quantify the impact of SLC on the lensing power spectrum in the context of lensing tomography. We consider both the standard estimator and the pixel-based estimator. We find that none of them can satisfactorily handle both sources of SLC. (1) For the standard estimator, SLC induced by both sources can bias the lensing power spectrum by O(1)–O(10)%. Intrinsic source clustering also increases statistical uncertainties in the measured lensing power spectrum. However, the standard estimator suppresses intrinsic source clustering in the cross-spectrum. (2) In contrast, the pixel-based estimator suppresses SLC through cosmic magnification. However, it fails to suppress SLC through intrinsic source clustering and the measured lensing power spectrum can be biased low by O(1)–O(10)%. In short, for typical photo-z errors (σ{sub z}/(1+z)=0.05) and photo-z bin sizes (Δz{sup P}=0.2), SLC alters the lensing E-mode power spectrum by 1–10%, with ℓ∼10{sup 3} and z{sub s}∼1 being of particular interest to weak lensing cosmology. Therefore the SLC is a severe systematic for cosmology in Stage-IV lensing surveys. We present useful scaling relations to self-calibrate the SLC effect.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018

Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical Hypothesis Testing using CNN Features for Synthesis of Adversarial Counterexamples to Human and Object Detection Vision Systems

Validating the correctness of human detection vision systems is crucial for safety applications such as pedestrian collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. The enormous space of possible inputs to such an intelligent system makes it difficult to design test cases for such systems. In this report, we present our tool MAYA that uses an error model derived from a convolutional neural network (CNN) to explore the space of images similar to a given input image, and then tests the correctness of a given human or object detection system on such perturbed images. We demonstrate the capability of our tool on the pre-trained Histogram-of-Oriented-Gradients (HOG) human detection algorithm implemented in the popular OpenCV toolset and the Caffe object detection system pre-trained on the ImageNet benchmark. Our tool may serve as a testing resource for the designers of intelligent human and object detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improved LC-MS/MS Spectral Counting Statistics by Recovering Low Scoring Spectra Matched to Confidently Identified Peptide Sequences

Spectral counting has become a popular semi-quantitative method for LC-MS/MS based proteome quantification; however, this methodology is often not reliable when proteins are identified by a small number of spectra. Here we present a simple strategy to improve spectral counting based quantification for low abundance proteins by recovering low quality or low scoring spectra for confidently identified peptides. In this approach, stringent data filtering criteria were initially applied to achieve confident peptide identifications with low false discovery rate (e.g., <1%) after LC-MS/MS analysis and database search by SEQUEST. Then, all low scoring MS/MS spectra that match to this set of confidently identified peptides were recovered, leading to more than 20% increase of total identified spectra. The validity of these recovered spectra was assessed by the parent ion mass measurement error distribution, retention time distribution, and by comparing the individual low score and high score spectra that correspond to the same peptides. The results support that the recovered low scoring spectra have similar confidence levels in peptide identifications as the spectra passing the initial stringent filter. The application of this strategy of recovering low scoring spectra significantly improved the spectral count quantification statistics for low abundance proteins, as illustrated in the identification of mouse brain region specific proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Neural-network learning of SPOD latent dynamics

Here, we aim to reconstruct the latent space dynamics of high dimensional, quasi-stationary systems using model order reduction via the spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). The proposed method is based on three fundamental steps: in the first, once that the mean flow field has been subtracted from the realizations (also referred to as snapshots), we compress the data from a high-dimensional representation to a lower dimensional one by constructing the SPOD latent space; in the second, we build the time-dependent coefficients by projecting the snapshots containing the fluctuations onto the SPOD basis and we learn their evolution in time with the aid of recurrent neural networks; in the third, we reconstruct the high-dimensional data from the learnt lower -dimensional representation. The proposed method is demonstrated on two different test cases, namely, a compressible jet flow, and a geophysical problem known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. An extensive comparison between SPOD and the equivalent POD-based counterpart is provided and differences between the two approaches are highlighted. The numerical results suggest that the proposed model is able to provide low rank predictions of complex statistically stationary data and to provide insights into the evolution of phenomena characterized by specific range of frequencies. The comparison between POD and SPOD surrogate strategies highlights the need for further work on the characterization of the interplay of error between data reduction techniques and neural network forecasts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Improving Seasonal Forecast Using Probabilistic Deep Learning

The path toward realizing the potential of seasonal forecasting and its socioeconomic benefits relies on improving general circulation model (GCM) based dynamical forecast systems. To improve dynamical seasonal forecasts, it is crucial to set up forecast benchmarks, and clarify forecast limitations posed by model initialization errors, formulation deficiencies, and internal climate variability. With huge costs in generating large forecast ensembles, and limited observations for forecast verification, the seasonal forecast benchmarking and diagnosing task proves challenging. Here, we develop a probabilistic deep learning-based statistical forecast methodology, drawing on a wealth of climate simulations to enhance seasonal forecast capability and forecast diagnosis. By explicitly modeling the internal climate variability and GCM formulation differences, the proposed Conditional Generative Forecasting (CGF) methodology enables bypassing crucial barriers in dynamical forecast, and offers a top-down viewpoint to examine how complicated GCMs encode the seasonal predictability information. We apply the CGF methodology for global seasonal forecast of precipitation and 2 m air temperature, based on a unique data set consisting 52,201 years of climate simulation. Results show that the CGF methodology can faithfully represent the seasonal predictability information encoded in GCMs. We successfully apply this learned relationship in real-world seasonal forecast, achieving competitive performance compared to dynamical forecasts. Using this CGF as benchmark, we reveal the impact of insufficient forecast spread sampling that limits the skill of the considered dynamical forecast system. Finally, we introduce different strategies for composing ensembles using the CGF methodology, highlighting the potential for leveraging the strengths of multiple GCMs to achieve advantgeous seasonal forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Consistent Representation of Cloud Overlap and Cloud Subgrid Vertical Heterogeneity

Many global climate models underestimate the cloud cover and overestimate the cloud albedo, especially for low-level clouds. We determine how a correct representation of the vertical structure of clouds can fix part of this bias. We use the 1D McICA framework and focus on low-level clouds. Using Large Eddy Simulations results as reference, we propose a method based on exponential-random overlap that represents the cloud overlap between layers and the subgrid cloud properties over several vertical scales, with a single value of the overlap parameter. Starting from a coarse vertical grid, representative of atmospheric models, this algorithm is used to generate the vertical profile of the cloud fraction with a finer vertical resolution, or to generate it on the coarse grid but with subgrid heterogeneity and cloud overlap that ensures a correct cloud cover. Doing so we find decorrelation lengths are dependent on the vertical resolution, except if the vertical subgrid heterogeneity and interlayer overlap are taken into account coherently. We confirm that the frequently used maximum-random overlap leads to a significant error by underestimating the low-level cloud cover with a relative error of about 50%, that can lead to an error of SW cloud albedo as big as 70%. Not taking into account the subgrid vertical heterogeneity of clouds can cause a relative error of 20% in brightness, assuming the cloud cover is correct.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ON THE ACCURACY OF THE DIFFERENTIAL EMISSION MEASURE DIAGNOSTICS OF SOLAR PLASMAS. APPLICATION TO SDO/AIA. I. ISOTHERMAL PLASMAS

Differential emission measure (DEM) analysis is a major diagnostic tool for stellar atmospheres. However, both its derivation and its interpretation are notably difficult because of random and systematic errors, and the inverse nature of the problem. We use simulations with simple thermal distributions to investigate the inversion properties of SDO/AIA observations of the solar corona. This allows a systematic exploration of the parameter space, and using a statistical approach the respective probabilities of all the DEMs compatible with the uncertainties can be computed. Following this methodology, several important properties of the DEM inversion, including new limitations, can be derived and presented in a very synthetic fashion. In this first paper, we describe the formalism and we focus on isothermal plasmas as building blocks to understand the more complex DEMs studied in the second paper. The behavior of the inversion of AIA data being thus quantified, and we provide new tools to properly interpret the DEM. We quantify the improvement of the isothermal inversion with six AIA bands compared to previous EUV imagers. The maximum temperature resolution of AIA is found to be 0.03 log T{sub e} , and we derive a rigorous test to quantify the compatibility of observations with the isothermal hypothesis. However, we demonstrate limitations in the ability of AIA alone to distinguish different physical conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Lyman α forest in optically thin hydrodynamical simulations

We study the statistics of the Lyα forest in a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology with the N-body + Eulerian hydrodynamics code NYX.We produce a suite of simulations, covering the observationally relevant redshift range 2 ≤ z ≤ 4. We find that a grid resolution of 20 h-1kpc is required to produce 1 per cent convergence of Lyα forest flux statistics, up to k = 10 h -1 Mpc. In addition to establishing resolution requirements, we study the effects of missing modes in these simulations, and find that box sizes of L > 40h -1 Mpc are needed to suppress numerical errors to a sub-per cent level. Our optically thin simulations with the ionizing background prescription of Haardt & Madau reproduce an intergalactic medium density-temperature relation with T 0 ≈ 10 4 K and γ ≈ 1.55 at z = 2, with a mean transmitted flux close to the observed values. When using the ionizing background prescription of Faucher-Giguère et al., the mean flux is 10-15 per cent below observed values at z = 2, and a factor of 2 too small at z = 4. We show the effects of the common practice of rescaling optical depths to the observed mean flux and how it affects convergence rates. We also investigate the practice of 'splicing' results from a number of different simulations to estimate the 1D flux power spectrum and show it is accurate at the 10 per cent level. Finally, we find that collisional heating of the gas from dark matter particles is negligible in modern cosmological simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extracting Topological Orders of Generalized Pauli Stabilizer Codes in Two Dimensions

In this paper, we introduce an algorithm for extracting topological data from translation invariant generalized Pauli stabilizer codes in two-dimensional systems, focusing on the analysis of anyon excitations and string operators. The algorithm applies to Z d qudits, including instances where d is a nonprime number. This capability allows the identification of topological orders that differ from the Z d toric codes. It extends our understanding beyond the established theorem that Pauli stabilizer codes for Z p qudits (with p being a prime) are equivalent to finite copies of Z p toric codes and trivial stabilizers. The algorithm is designed to determine all anyons and their string operators, enabling the computation of their fusion rules, topological spins, and braiding statistics. The method converts the identification of topological orders into computational tasks, including Gaussian elimination, the Hermite normal form, and the Smith normal form of truncated Laurent polynomials. Furthermore, the algorithm provides a systematic approach for studying quantum error-correcting codes. We apply it to various codes, such as self-dual CSS quantum codes modified from the two-dimensional honeycomb color code and non-CSS quantum codes that contain the double semion topological order or the six-semion topological order. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Sci-Fri PM: Radiation Therapy, Planning, Imaging, and Special Techniques - 09: Impact of the distance of reflective markers from linac isocenter on the positional accuracy of an infrared tracking system

Purpose: The HexaPOD™ six degree of freedom couchtop is equipped with an optical tracking system, consisting of a stereoscopic camera and a reference frame (RF) carrying infrared reflective markers. The manufacturer recommends placing the RF within 50 cm from linac isocenter (ISO), which is a serious limitation since the RF does not fit around the shoulders of most brain patients. This study quantifies the impact of extended RF distances from ISO on positional accuracy. Methods: An in-house tool with an estimated resolution of 0.3 mm and 0.1° was used. It is a large cube and a mathematical model of HexaPOD motion to determine the intersection of room lasers with the ruled cube edges. Combinations of translations (±1 and ±3 cm) and rotations (±2.5°) were executed on two HexaPOD couchtops for multiple RF distances from ISO (35 to 77 cm). For each combination, ten laser readings were fed into a least squares algorithm to determine the executed translations and rotations while minimizing operator reading errors. Results: The usable tracking volume is up to an RF distance of 82 cm from ISO. Positional accuracy of the HexaPOD/iGuide system is 0.6 mm and 0.1° (95% confidence). Positional accuracy variations versus RF distance from ISO are statistically insignificant (p = 0.05). Our results generally confirm recent internal estimates by the manufacturer (for future release). Conclusions: RF distances up to 77 cm from ISO are clinically acceptable, provided performing a patient safety study with a verification scan.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

One-to-one aeroservoelastic validation of operational loads and performance of a 2.8 MW wind turbine model in OpenFAST

Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Statistical Tool Size Study for Computer-Controlled Optical Surfacing

Over the past few decades, computer-controlled optical surfacing (CCOS) systems have become more deterministic. A target surface profile can be predictably achieved with a combination of tools of different sizes. However, deciding the optimal set of tool sizes that will achieve the target residual error in the shortest run time is difficult, and no general guidance has been proposed in the literature. In this paper, we present a computer-assisted study on choosing the proper tool size for a given surface error map. First, we propose that the characteristic frequency ratio (CFR) can be used as a general measure of the correction capability of a tool over a surface map. Second, the performance of different CFRs is quantitatively studied with a computer simulation by applying them to guide the tool size selection for polishing a large number of randomly generated surface maps with similar initial spatial frequencies and root mean square errors. Finally, we find that CFR = 0.75 achieves the most stable trade-off between the total run time and the number of iterations and thus can be used as a general criterion in tool size selection for CCOS processes. To the best of our knowledge, the CFR is the first criterion that ties tool size selection to overall efficiency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of numerics on the predictive capabilities of reacting flow LES

Combustors in modern aerospace propulsion systems are highly optimized devices and further enhancements to their performance will require advanced predictive modeling techniques. The LES approach has potential to be such a technique, but demonstration of its true predictive capability remains a challenge. In this paper, a methodical study is performed to assess the impact of numerical error on the predictive capabilities of LES and to distinguish it from error arising from physical modeling. Four codes are employed to simulate the bluff body stabilized flame experiment of Volvo Flygmotor AB. The physical models (governing equations and sub-grid models) are kept identical between the codes so that the physical modeling error is the same. For the same reason, computational grids are also kept identical since the sub-grid models are grid dependent. Results indicate that all codes produce a very similar solution for the non-reacting flow in terms of large scale unsteady vortex shedding behavior, mean profiles and second order turbulence statistics, on a suitably refined grid. This solution is also very close to the experimentally observed behavior of the flow. In contrast, for the reacting case, solutions from the various codes exhibit significant differences when analyzed under the same metrics and with similar or even finer grid resolution than that used for the non-reacting case. These differences are large enough to change the macroscopic behavior of the flow, e.g. some codes predict symmetric vortex shedding while others predict asymmetric shedding and some codes show strong recirculation zones while others show stagnant regions behind the bluff body. It is also shown that none of the solutions truly predicts the experimentally observed flow. Given that the physical sub-grid models and computational grids are the same in all the simulations, the inconsistency between results points to a significant impact of numerical methods and, hence, numerical error. The need for mitigation of this impact is highlighted, along with the need for metrics detailing how LES should be applied to reacting flows. It is suggested that both of these issues should be the focus of future work.

Energy & Fuels↗

SPIDER. V. MEASURING SYSTEMATIC EFFECTS IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXY STELLAR MASSES FROM PHOTOMETRIC SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTION FITTING

We present robust statistical estimates of the accuracy of early-type galaxy stellar masses derived from spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting as functions of various empirical and theoretical assumptions. Using large samples consisting of {approx}40,000 galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS; ugriz), of which {approx}5000 are also in the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (YJHK), with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.05 {<=} z {<=} 0.095, we test the reliability of some commonly used stellar population models and extinction laws for computing stellar masses. Spectroscopic ages (t), metallicities (Z), and extinctions (A{sub V} ) are also computed from fits to SDSS spectra using various population models. These external constraints are used in additional tests to estimate the systematic errors in the stellar masses derived from SED fitting, where t, Z, and A{sub V} are typically left as free parameters. We find reasonable agreement in mass estimates among stellar population models, with variation of the initial mass function and extinction law yielding systematic biases on the mass of nearly a factor of two, in agreement with other studies. Removing the near-infrared bands changes the statistical bias in mass by only {approx}0.06 dex, adding uncertainties of {approx}0.1 dex at the 95% CL. In contrast, we find that removing an ultraviolet band is more critical, introducing 2{sigma} uncertainties of {approx}0.15 dex. Finally, we find that the stellar masses are less affected by the absence of metallicity and/or dust extinction knowledge. However, there is a definite systematic offset in the mass estimate when the stellar population age is unknown, up to a factor of 2.5 for very old (12 Gyr) stellar populations. We present the stellar masses for our sample, corrected for the measured systematic biases due to photometrically determined ages, finding that age errors produce lower stellar masses by {approx}0.15 dex, with errors of {approx}0.02 dex at the 95% CL for the median stellar age subsample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Refined Global Segmentation of X-Ray CT Images for Multi-phase Geomaterials

X-ray computed tomography images of three-phase silica sand and glass bead specimens are analyzed and used to evaluate the segmentation performances of Otsu-, and recursion-based multilevel algorithms. A global image segmentation technique that combines iterative and recursive algorithms, namely a refined statistics-based global segmentation is proposed for segmenting multi-phase granular geomaterials. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested by segmenting partially saturated silica sand and glass bead specimens. For the tested silica sand specimen, the refined statistics method estimated void ratio and degree of saturation were 0.67 and 39.35%. The estimates for the glass bead specimen yielded 0.64 and 43.49%, respectively. The true void ratio (0.66) and degree of saturation (37.71%) were determined with a user-controlled Image processing software package—Image-Pro. It was found that the proposed method estimated the void ratio and the degree of saturation with 1.52 and 4.35 percent errors for the silica sand and with 15.63 and 0.34 percent errors for the glass bead, respectively. The computational time of the proposed method was found to be shorter than other methods considered. Overall, it is concluded that the proposed technique performed better in segmenting three-phase granular geomaterials.

42 ENGINEERING↗