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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗

Effect of nacelles on aerodynamic characteristics of an executive-jet model with simulated, partial-chord, laminar-flow-control wing glove

Tests were conducted in the Langley High-Speed 7- by 10-Foot Tunnel using a 1/10-scale model of an executive jet to examine the effects of the nacelles on the wing pressures and model longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics. For the present investigation, each wing panel was modified with a simulated, partial-chord, laminar-flow-control glove. Horizontal-tail effects were also briefly examined. The tests covered a range of Mach numbers from 0.40 to 0.82 and lift coefficients from 0.20 to 0.55. Oil-flow photographs of the wing at selected conditions are included.

Campbell, R. L.↗

Utility of an emulation and simulation computer model for air revitalization system hardware design, development, and test

Efforts to make increasingly use of suitable computer programs in the design of hardware have the potential to reduce expenditures. In this context, NASA has evaluated the benefits provided by software tools through an application to the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system. The present paper is concerned with the benefits obtained by an employment of simulation tools in the case of the Air Revitalization System (ARS) of a Space Station life support system. Attention is given to the ARS functions and components, a computer program overview, a SAND (solid amine water desorbed) bed model description, a model validation, and details regarding the simulation benefits.

Yanosy, J. L.↗

Parallel implementation of a particle simulation for modeling rarefied gas dynamic flow

When the conditions of flow are rarefied and hypersonic, a more suitable alternative to the use of the Navier-Stokes equations for developing a numerical solution is the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo method (DSMC), a method of simulation which employs a large number of particles in modeling a rarefied gas. The performance of a parallel DSMC code developed for the Intel iPSC/860 Touchstone Gamma prototype computer is studied and the scaleup is found to be very nearly over the range of 16-128 processors.

Fallavollita, M. A.↗

Modeling and Simulation of a Parallel Hybrid Electric Regional Aircraft for the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) Program

This paper presents a parametric modeling and integrated aircraft sizing and synthesis approach for a charge depleting parallel hybrid electric architecture. The developed models are integrated within the baseline thin-haul and regional aircraft. In addition to the physical architecture, different modes of operation enabled by propulsion system electrification are also modeled parametrically. The modes of operation presented in this paper are the peak power shaving, climb power electric boost, in-flight battery recharging, and electric taxi. The sizing of the powertrain and the aircraft are performed within the multidisciplinary analysis and optimization environment, E-PASS. The consideration of the physical system and its operation together provides a holistic approach where the propulsion system and the airframe are designed under an optimized power and energy management strategy. The parametric nature of the work enables the design space exploration for electrification and lays the groundwork for future technology projection and uncertainty quantification studies. The developed capability is generic and can be applied on other aircraft classes. The work is done as part of the Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration program.

electrified powertrain flight demonstration↗

SECURED: Simulator-Enhanced Control and Understanding of Reactor systems for cyber-Event Defense

The study discusses a learning approach for analyzing cyber-events in reactor systems using integrated hardware and personal computer simulator models. Key points include the rise in cyber-attacks and their sophistication in industrial control systems (ICS), the necessity for awareness, understanding, resource allocation, and preparation to combat these threats, and the digital transformation of old and new nuclear plants, increasing their exposure to cyber threats. It highlights the cyber vulnerabilities of advanced reactor systems, which rely on digital instrumentation and control for operations and safety functions, making them susceptible to cyber-attacks. The approach involves demonstrating reactor system plant ICS cyber-attacks under various operational conditions utilizing tools like simulator models and hardware-based kits. A strategic solution approach tailored to critical infrastructure is emphasized, along with community engagement for public and government support, adopting effective learning approaches, and the preparation for anticipated future challenges. The presentation concludes with a call to action to address challenges, leverage opportunities, and advance through lesson learning in cybersecurity for nuclear energy systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

Computational Modeling of Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers

Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Lasers (VCSELs) have become increasingly important for many applications, such as optical interconnects and optical data storages. In many applications, critical requirements are very often high beam quality and/or high output powers. To help the design and optimization of VCSELs for such applications, it is essential to have a simulation model that includes the time evolution of the transverse space dependence of the hewn. Such models allow arbitrary transverse profiles of laser intensity or carrier density to develop in time without any a priori assumption about the number and types of transverse modes. In addition, extensive research in the past has shown that many-body effects are important in influencing the optical gain and the refractive index of semiconductor quantum wells. It is thus important to include the key many-body effects in simulation models for semiconductor lasers. A computational model, called the Maxwell-Effective Bloch Equations (MEBE) was developed recently that simulates the above features and effects. This model combines the space-time resolution with microscopic many-body effects in a way that is both accurate enough and computationally manageable. This model has been used to simulate edge-emitting high power lasers recently. A new finite-difference algorithm has been developed for solving these equations and will be shown in the presentation. That algorithm will be used to calculate the detailed time evolution of the transverse mode profiles of VCSELs. The VCSELs are based on InGaAs/GaAs quantum well structures. Effects of pumping current and refractive index profiles will be investigated in detail. The simulation results will be compared with other results the use the rate-equation model.

Goorjian, Peter M.↗

Optimizing Patient-Specific Medication Regimen Policies Using Wearable Sensors in Parkinson’s Disease

Effective treatment of Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a continual challenge for healthcare providers, and providers can benefit from leveraging emerging technologies to supplement traditional clinic care. We develop a data-driven reinforcement learning (RL) framework to optimize PD medication regimens through wearable sensors. We leverage a data set of n = 26 PD patients who wore wrist-mounted movement trackers for two separate six-day periods. Using these data, we first build and validate a simulation model of how individual patients’ movement symptoms respond to medication administration. We then pair this simulation model with an on-policy RL algorithm that recommends optimal medication types, timing, and dosages during the day while incorporating human-in-the-loop considerations on medication administration. The results show that the RL-prescribed medication regimens outperform physicians’ medication regimens, despite physicians having access to the same data as the RL agent. To validate our results, we assess our wearable-based RL medication regimens using n = 399 PD patients from the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative data set. We show that the wearable-based RL medication regimens would lead to significant symptom improvement for these patients, even more so than training RL policies directly from this data set. In doing so, we show that RL models from even small data sets of wearable data can offer novel, generalizable clinical insights and medication strategies, which may outperform those derived from larger data sets without wearable data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Energy Saving Quantification on Ductless Heat Pump (DHP) in Existing Homes

In residential retrofit applications, ductless mini-split heat pumps (DHP) are often reported to have high-energy savings potential, depending on the system they are supplementing or replacing. However, recently, there have been a number of utility studies and analyses indicating these energy savings are not being achieved when the existing system is left in place for backup heating or air conditioning. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory conducted a three-phase project to help determine which control strategies would have the most energy savings impact in various climate zones around the United States. The first phase developed the standalone simulation model for the PNNL Lab Homes and investigated the energy-saving potential from different control strategies and HVAC system configurations. The second phase focused on conducting experiments in the PNNL Lab Homes, which tested the most promising solutions that were modeled in the first phase. The third phase used the field data to calibrate the simulation model and then extrapolated the results to different climate locations and different building sizes. This report focuses on the third phase of the study, including five major parts: model calibration, parametric model setup, results, a sensitivity analysis of air leakage rate, and conclusions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Physiological water model development

The water of the human body can be categorized as existing in two main compartments: intracellular water and extracellular water. The intracellular water consists of all the water within the cells and constitutes over half of the total body water. Since red blood cells are surrounded by plasma, and all other cells are surrounded by interstitial fluid, the intracellular compartment has been subdivided to represent these two cell types. The extracellular water, which includes all of the fluid outside of the cells, can be further subdivided into compartments which represent the interstitial fluid, circulating blood plasma, lymph, and transcellular water. The interstitial fluid surrounds cells outside of the vascular system whereas plasma is contained within the blood vessels. Avascular tissues such as dense connective tissue and cartilage contain interstitial water which slowly equilibrates with tracers used to determine extracellular fluid volume. For this reason, additional compartments are sometimes used to represent these avascular tissues. The average size of each compartment, in terms of percent body weight, has been determined for adult males and females. These compartments and the forces which cause flow between them are presented. The kidneys, a main compartment, receive about 25 percent of the cardiac output and filters out a fluid similar to plasma. The composition of this filtered fluid changes as it flows through the kidney tubules since compounds are continually being secreted and reabsorbed. Through this mechanism, the kidneys eliminate wastes while conserving body water, electrolytes, and metabolites. Since sodium accounts for over 90 percent of the cations in the extracellular fluid, and the number of cations is balanced by the number of anions, considering the renal handling sodium and water only should sufficiently describe the relationship between the plasma compartment and kidneys. A kidney function model is presented which has been adapted from a previous model of normal renal function in man. To test the validity of the proposed kidney model, results predicted by the model will be compared to actual data involving injected or ingested fluids and subsequent urine flow rates. Comparison of the model simulation to actual data following the ingestion of 1 liter of water is shown. The model simulation is also shown with actual data following the intravenous infusion of hypertonic saline.

Doty, Susan↗

Three-dimensional modelling of trace species in the Arctic lower stratosphere

A three-dimensional radiative-dynamical-chemical model has been developed and used to study some aspects of modeling the polar lower stratosphere. The model includes a comprehensive gas-phase chemistry scheme as well as a treatment of heterogeneous reactions occurring on the surface of polar stratospheric clouds. Tracer transport is treated by an accurate, nondispersive scheme with little diffusion suited to the representation of strong gradients. Results from a model simulation of early February 1990 are presented and used to illustrate the importance of the model transport scheme. The model simulation is also used to examine the potential for Arctic ozone destruction and the relative contributions of the chemical cycles responsible.

Chipperfield, Martyn↗

Modeling and Simulation of a Helicopter Slung Load Stabilization Device

This paper addresses the problem of simulation and stabilization of the yaw motions of a cargo container slung load. The study configuration is a UH-60 helicopter carrying a 6ft x 6 ft x 8 ft CONEX container. This load is limited to 60 KIAS in operations and flight testing indicates that it starts spinning in hover and that spin rate increases with airspeed. The simulation reproduced the load yaw motions seen in the flight data after augmenting the load model with terms representing unsteady load yaw moment effects acting to reinforce load oscillations, and augmenting the hook model to include yaw resistance at the hook. The use of a vertical fin to stabilize the load is considered. Results indicate that the CONEX airspeed can be extended to 110 kts using a 3x5 ft fin.

Cicolani, Luigi S.↗

Reducing warpage in a hybrid large-scale additive manufacturing and compression molding process

In recent years, a hybrid manufacturing process, developed by combining extrusion-based large-scale additive manufacturing (AM) and compression molding (CM) techniques, has shown promising outcomes for producing structurally functional parts. The process can be used with both short fiber-reinforced composites and neat polymers and hence, even multi-material parts can be manufactured easily. This process offers the advantages of structural enhancement by having a desired fiber orientation using a large-scale AM process, as well as rapid manufacturing capability using a CM process. In the large-scale AM process, the alignment of fibers in the deposition direction enables significant improvement in the mechanical properties of the manufactured parts. However, the anisotropy resulting from the directional arrangement of fibers also introduces challenges related to warpage in the produced parts. This study aims to identify the causes of warpage and propose strategies to mitigate it. The research involves the use of preforms manufactured through the large-scale AM, which are then combined with the neat resin for CM manufacturing. A finite element-based numerical simulation model is developed, employing a sequentially coupled thermomechanical approach. Through a parametric study using the simulation models, optimization of printing direction and preform geometry is performed to minimize warpage. This contributes to the advancement and wider adoption of AM/CM hybrid manufacturing to produce structurally functional parts.

Jo, Eonyeon↗

Avista CEF2 Shared Energy Economy: Modeling and Simulation

This research project supported Avista’s Shared Energy Economy (SEE) Project in Spokane’s University District (UDistrict), as funded by the WA Department of Commerce Clean Energy Fund (CEF) Phase 2. The SEE project comprises a microgrid with two campus buildings, two solar photovoltaic generators, and two batteries. The microgrid can operate grid-connected or off-grid. This research project included modeling the buildings and other microgrid components, simulating a transactive energy system, and supporting Avista’s testing of different use cases for the WA Department of Commerce. The main research finding is that buildings can be modeled successfully in a data-driven approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fluid Dynamics of Axial Turbomachinery: Blade- and Stage-Level Simulations and Models

The current generation of axial turbomachines is the culmination of decades of experience, and detailed understanding of the underlying flow physics has been a key factor for achieving high efficiency and reliability. Driven by advances in numerical methods and relentless growth in computing power, computational fluid dynamics has increasingly provided insights into the rich fluid dynamics involved and how it relates to loss generation. This article presents some of the complex flow phenomena occurring in bladed components of gas turbines and illustrates how simulations have contributed to their understanding and the challenges they pose for modeling. The interaction of key aerodynamic features with deterministic unsteadiness, caused by multiple blade rows, and stochastic unsteadiness, i.e., turbulence, is discussed. High-fidelity simulations of increasingly realistic configurations and models improved with help of machine learning promise to further grow turbomachinery performance and reliability and, thus, help fluid mechanics research have a greater industrial impact.

Mechanics↗

Using the Flow-3D General Moving Object Model to Simulate Coupled Liquid Slosh - Container Dynamics on the SPHERES Slosh Experiment: Aboard the International Space Station

The SPHERES Slosh Experiment (SSE) is a free floating experimental platform developed for the acquisition of long duration liquid slosh data aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The data sets collected will be used to benchmark numerical models to aid in the design of rocket and spacecraft propulsion systems. Utilizing two SPHERES Satellites, the experiment will be moved through different maneuvers designed to induce liquid slosh in the experiment's internal tank. The SSE has a total of twenty-four thrusters to move the experiment. In order to design slosh generating maneuvers, a parametric study with three maneuvers types was conducted using the General Moving Object (GMO) model in Flow-30. The three types of maneuvers are a translation maneuver, a rotation maneuver and a combined rotation translation maneuver. The effectiveness of each maneuver to generate slosh is determined by the deviation of the experiment's trajectory as compared to a dry mass trajectory. To fully capture the effect of liquid re-distribution on experiment trajectory, each thruster is modeled as an independent force point in the Flow-3D simulation. This is accomplished by modifying the total number of independent forces in the GMO model from the standard five to twenty-four. Results demonstrate that the most effective slosh generating maneuvers for all motions occurs when SSE thrusters are producing the highest changes in SSE acceleration. The results also demonstrate that several centimeters of trajectory deviation between the dry and slosh cases occur during the maneuvers; while these deviations seem small, they are measureable by SSE instrumentation.

Schulman, Richard↗