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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

DPC Disposal Thermal Scoping Analysis

This is a progress report on thermal modeling for dual-purpose canister (DPCs) direct disposal that covers several available calculation methods and addresses creep and temperature-dependent properties in a salt repository. Three modeling approaches are demonstrated: A semi-analytical calculation method that uses linear solutions with superposition and imaging, to represent a central waste package in a larger array; A finite difference model of coupled thermal creep, implemented in FLAC2D; and An integrated finite difference thermal-hydrologic modeling approach for repositories in different generic host media, implemented in PFLOTRAN. These approaches are at different levels of maturity, and future work is expected to add refinements and establish the best applications for each.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

January 2022 Operational Highlights

The Indexing Lab is now complete and includes classified and unclassified computers, safes and work stations. Staff capture metadata and catalog materials, including classified reports, directors’ correspondence and Rocky Flats materials to ensure the holdings are discoverable and retrievable. Access protocols were updated for products related to the LANL Annual Assessment in the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository. The Annual Assessment is a yearly analysis of the weapons systems in the nation’s nuclear stockpile. The Standardization Quality Assessment (SQA) for the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository was completed and contained no findings. Beta testing, or customer validation, began for the metrics database that generates metrics reports and visualizations from NSRC customer projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Enabling Extended-Term Simulation of Power Systems with High PV Penetration. Final Report

This is the final Technical Report for DOE-SETO Project Award # DE-EE0036461. The goal of this project is to advance the understanding of the grid impact of high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation by developing novel numerical methods to solve the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that define power systems. This will overcome the limitations of current software packages – namely that they only consider fast dynamics over brief time periods. The work presented in this final project report covers results over the entire period of the project. This includes results on model development, code development for the PST repository, datasets in the PST repository, algorithm development and results from variable time-step simulations, development and results from multirate simulations, and sensitivity analysis of key parameter in variable time-step methods. In addition, this report discusses project outreach activities to stakeholders, and a summary of project products. Also covered in this final report is the writing of two conference papers (one of which has already been accepted) and a journal paper. In addition, the updating of two inverter models (both grid forming and grid following) to be compatible with the latest version of PST software is discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2021)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. GDSA Framework is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-21SN01030404) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2021) (M3SF-21SN010304042). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY21, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of GDSA Framework. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-21SN01030405), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-21SN01030406), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-21SN01030407). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF 20SN010304032.

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RANGERS: State of the Art and Science on Engineered Barrier Systems in Salt Formations

The construction of deep geological repositories (DGR) in salt formations requires penetrating through naturally sealing geosphere layers. While the emplaced nuclear waste is primarily protected by the containment-providing rock zone (CRZ), technical barriers are required, for example during handling. For closure geotechnical barriers seal the repository along the accesses against water or solutions from outside and the possible emission paths for radionuclides contained inside. As these barriers must ensure maintenance-free function on a long-term basis, they typically comprise a set of specialized elements with diversified functions that may be used redundantly. The effects of the individual elements are coordinated so that they are collectively referred to as the Engineered Barrier System (EBS).

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Simulink Modeling and Dynamic Study of Fixed-Speed, Variable-Speed, and Ternary Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) is one of the most popular energy storage technologies in the world. It uses an upper reservoir to store water which can be later used during high-demand. In the United States, most of the energy storage capability actually corresponds to PSH. Moreover, PSH also brings multiple benefits to grid operation. This report presents the Simulink models of three common PSH technologies: Fixed-Speed (FS), Variable-Speed (VS), and Ternary (T)-PSH. These models are available to the general public on this GitHub repository, which contains the MATLAB model initialization files, the Simulink model files, and supplementary MATLAB code used to obtain the figures in this work. For each PSH model, an introductory description of the model components and other relevant functionalities are provided. For further information regarding the models and the initialization parameters, the reader is referred to the shared files in the repository. This report also presents the dynamic behavior of each model. The response of such models to a load event is analyzed and matched with each model's features. A custom IEEE 39 bus case is employed for the FS and T-PSH simulations, while the VS-PSH is simulated on a simplified three-bus test system due to the computational complexity of the model. For the T-PSH, the steady-state and the switching between several operating modes are also studied in this work.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Insert Modeling in UNF ST&DARDS

The Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS) is a software tool that integrates a used nuclear fuel (UNF) or spent nuclear fuel (SNF) relational database and key analysis capabilities to simplify and automate numerous UNF management and fuel cycle–related activities. UNF-ST&DARDS is being developed for the US Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition program. UNF-ST&DARDS provides an integrated framework that uses advanced modeling and simulation to predict the behavior of SNF over the timescales associated with permanent disposal in a geologic repository. After leaving the spent fuel pool, SNF is transferred to dry storage in a dual-purpose canister (DPC). DPCs are considered “dual purpose” because they are designed for both storage and transportation, removing the need to transfer the fuel to a separate transportation cask. However, much research has been conducted investigating the feasibility of directly disposing of DPCs in geologic repositories. Direct disposal of DPCs could reduce worker exposure during repackaging, reducing the amount of low-level waste from the discarded DPCs and potentially saving billions of dollars. Therefore, direct disposal of as-loaded DPCs is desirable if it can be done safely.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Time-dependent THMC properties and microstructural evolution of damaged rocks in excavation damage zone

Modeling coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in host rocks near high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repositories at various time scales is an extremely challenging task. The current study integrates experimental, theoretical, and numerical methods in assessing the evolution of excavation damage zone (EDZ) over time and its implication on the long-term migration of hazardous species. Argillite and rock salt and are the focus of this study. The first part of the report presents a novel time-dependent directional microcrack damage theory for generic brittle rocks. It features detailed statistical description of the microcracks within a damaged solid, permitting a direct upscaling of microscale processes such as crack growth kinetics, crack closure/opening, sliding friction to explain the macroscopic creep, nonlinear elasticity, shear dilation, and loading-unloading hysteresis. This provides a basic platform for describing the anisotropic mechanical and transport properties of damaged rocks during excavation and subsequent THMC loadings. The model is validated and numerically implemented to Finite Element (FE) package ABAQUS through the user-defined material (UMAT) interface and have demonstrated great potential in resolving the time-dependent and anisotropic evolution of damage in the EDZ. The second part of the report presents a multi-scale experimental effort in characterizing the thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical properties of Mancos shale and Avery Island salt. For the Mancos shale, triaxial compression tests are performed at different confining pressures and temperatures to probe its thermomechanical properties relevant to HLW repositories. The obtained stress-strain data are interpreted using the proposed directional damage theory. Post-test specimens are subjected to gas permeability tests to reveal the correlation between permeability and the degree of microcracking. At microscale, temperature-controlled nanoindentation tests are performed and found a linear correlation between fracture toughness and elastic modulus from 25°C to 300°C. For Avery Island salt, we have designed and manufactured a novel relative-humidity controlled uniaxial creep device. Long-term creep tests at low stresses (< 5 MPa) are performed at different levels of relative humidity (RH). Besides confirming the much higher creep rates as one would expect through extrapolating the high-stress creep data, the results reveal that the steady-state creep rate of rock salt is strongly dependent on the ambient RH, an aspect that is often neglected in the literature. Both behaviors can be attributed to the pressure-solution creep mechanism which dominates at low stress and high RH levels. The third part of the report explores a set of numerical strategies in modeling the THMC behavior of porous geomaterials. A fully implicit, monolithic FE solution that can flexibly interface with different material models and coupling mechanisms for THMC problems is developed and verified through the ABAQUS user-defined element (UEL) interface. The scheme is used to study the THM response of a hypothetical HLW storage site with reference to an existing in-situ heater test. Strategies for integrating the UEL and the microcrack UMAT are suggested. Another numerical endeavor of this study is to implement a higher-order asymptotic homogenization method to account for the heterogeneous porous structures. The same method is then extended to perform microstructure-informed thermo-mechanical modeling of generalized continua. The above outcomes of this project provide a strong thrust towards enhancing the fundamental understanding and modeling capability of the long-term evolution of host rocks in EDZ, thus helping achieve the design goal of 1-million-year isolation of high-level nuclear wastes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Solubility of An(OH) 3 am and An(OH) 3 cr in the presence of Citrate and EDTA

The solubility of An(III), which pertains to Pu(III), Am(III), and Cm(III), in brine is an important contributor in WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant) performance assessment (PA) models to calculate the potential release of transuranic elements in the near-field environment of the WIPP repository. Americium, although present in much smaller quantities than plutonium (~ 336 kg on year 2033 is potentially WIPP-bound primarily as Am-241), has a significant impact on release due to its higher activity during the earlier times of repository history (~26% initially, decreasing to 17% and ~0% at 1000 and 10,000 years after emplacement) (SOTERM, 2019). Lanthanide analogues such as Nd 3+ possess physical and chemical characteristics that allow them to be used to examine the chemical behavior of trivalent actinides (Lucchini, et al., 2007).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data-Driven Buy Clean: Decarbonization and Beyond

This report was compiled to provide recommendations on the availability of public background data from the U.S. Federal life cycle assessment (LCA) Data Commons to be conformant with the Association for Life Cycle Assessment (ACLCA) 2022 Product Category Rule (PCR) Open Standard to build technical tools that can assist industry in creating more comparable Type II Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) for Federal Buy Clean and sustainability initiatives. The Federal LCA Commons is not only a public data source but also a consistently structured, self-referencing mega-repository for data developed by federal agency experts (in agency repositories) and by academia, nonprofit organizations, and industry (via the US Life Cycle Inventory Database). The Federal LCA Commons Technical Working Group is continuously improving the standardization of data documentation, formatting, and nomenclature to ensure lossless data loading and accurate data representation. This report and appendixes include the following: 1) An introduction to data-driven Buy Clean and decarbonization initiatives at the federal level; 2) The current status and associated challenges with LCA data and EPD standards and comparability; 3) Opportunities for the Federal LCA Commons to support conformance with the ACLCA 2022 PCR Open Standard and provide resources to implement the Federal Sustainability Plan, Buy Clean Program, and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sustainability goals and objectives. To date, the Federal LCA Commons is the result of coordinated work by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST). The Federal LCA Commons will continue to combine databases from the collaborating agencies while remaining a public resource. There are several initiatives among the collaborating agencies to expand the Federal LCA Commons and dedicated federal funding and resources could accelerate and strengthen these initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

In Situ Electrochemical Testing of Uranium Dioxide under Anoxic Conditions (FY19 Report)

Prediction of the corrosion behavior of spent uranium oxide (UO 2 ) fuel is needed for developing predictive performance assessment models for a geologic repository. Currently, the Fuel Matrix Dissolution Model (FMDM) is being used for modeling UO 2 chemistry in the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) and includes the effects of oxidants, oxygen and hydrogen peroxide generated from radiolysis of the fuel in contact with water as well as the role of hydrogen on limiting corrosion. The aim of this work is to investigate the corrosion of UO 2 in-situ in the Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The corrosion potential (E corr ) is measured using an electrochemical workstation and a unique microfluidic reactor containing three-electrodes and compatible for multiple analytical platforms, termed System for Analysis at the Vacuum Liquid Interface (SALVI) electrochemical cell (E-cell) which has been developed at PNNL. This approach aims to provide real-time and in operando monitoring of UO 2 electrode stability and morphological change and to study the UO 2 corrosion process at the microscale. The results will be utilized to support the Mixed Potential Model (MPM) that has been developed for the repository program.

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Plan for Development and Application of Risk Assessment Approach for Transportation Package Approval of an MNPP for Domestic Highway Shipment

For nuclear reactors, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has been conducted since the 1970s [e.g., see WASH-1400 (NRC 1975), NUREG-1150 (NRC 1990), and NUREG-1935 (Chang et al. 2012)]. PRA has also been used to assess a dry cask storage system at a nuclear power plant [see NUREG-1864 (NRC 2007)]. PRA techniques have also been applied to the transportation of spent nuclear fuel, most notably in NUREG/CR-4829 (Fischer et al. 1987), NUREG/CR-6672 (Sprung et al. 2000), and NUREG-2125 (NRC 2014). Additional guidance is provided in International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) IAEA-TECDOC-1346 (2003). Transportation PRA was also used in the evaluations of transportation impacts in reports such as the Repository Final Environmental Impact Statement (DOE 2002) and the Repository Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (DOE 2008).

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Efficient Multi-Scale, Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Numerical Model for Simulation of Long-Term Stability of Rooms for Nuclear Waste Disposal

This project demonstrated the feasibility of developing a numerical modeling tool that provides an efficient and unique approach to analyze the geomechanical performance of a deep geological repository (DGR) for high-level nuclear waste. The numerical modeling tool is physics-based and models the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes during the required time (up to one million years) for a DGR. The unique capability of the developed code is explicit representation of fracturing and a discrete fracture network (DFN) in the model that includes the entire repository layout for simulated time of one million years. Therefore, it can potentially address one of the challenges of analysis of a DGR, which is efficient numerical simulation of a multi-scale, physics-based models.

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Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange Hybrid Model for Radionuclide Sorption to Clay Minerals (M4SF-23LL010301062)

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-23LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number SF-23LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program. In our FY22 effort, we described a detailed analysis of U(VI) sorption to quartz through both traditional surface complexation modeling and through a hybrid ML framework. In FY23, effort was placed on publication of these results and expansion of the LLNL surface complexation and ion exchange database (L-SCIE) in order to assess mineral-based radionuclide retardation under a wider variety of geochemical conditions (e.g., ionic strength, varying electrolyte compositions). Efforts were initiated to expand L-SCIE to include radionuclide surface complexation and ion exchange to clays that are relevant to subsurface geochemical processes occurring at nuclear waste repositories. In particular, a large source of sorption data for clays resides at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) (work primarily by Bradbury and Baeyens) and we initiated discussions on how to retrieve those data and apply FAIR principles to those datasets. In addition to L-SCIE development, two hybrid models that incorporate AI/ML were investigated and compared to discern the most promising approaches for accurate and precise estimations of radionuclide retardation. Key considerations for future model development include (1) the ability to reduce computational burden on determining retardation coefficients for PA and (2) the ability to quantify and predict radionuclide-mineral partitioning at a more efficient, rapid pace due to automated workflows. Upon the careful consideration of the most effective modeling approaches, we are identifying ways to implement these approaches into PA. Ultimately, the data science-based workflows will provide a major incentive for other institutions to adopt a FAIR-formatted, interoperable database. LLNL will play a key role in disseminating sorption data and acting as good data stewards by updating the database in a consistent format and assessing the quality of the newly assimilated data in an organized fashion. To this end, all data and workflows are open access and made available on the LLNL Seaborg research website (https://seaborg.llnl.gov/resources/geochemical-databases-modeling-codes).

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Development and Porting of Nuclear Reactor Computational Models for the NRIC Virtual Test Bed in FY23

The U.S. DOE’s National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) hosts an open-source website and associated GitHub repository called the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) on which computational models for advanced reactors are documented and shared with the reactor community. In FY23 under the NRIC program, computational models for nuclear reactor analysis were developed and contributed to the VTB Github repository during FY23 by contributors at Argonne National Laboratory. Other models developed outside of NRIC were also ported to the VTB as part of this work, serving a broader mission to make computational reactor analysis models more widely available to the reactor community. The model development activities focused on demonstration of gas-cooled microreactor models including computational fluid dynamics simulations of flow through an industry-inspired air jacket design, and simulation of multiphysics transients for a gas-cooled microreactor assembly. Additionally, development of a molten salt reactor (led at Idaho National Laboratory) was supported through Argonne’s expertise in multigroup cross sections generation. Models for these two reactor types were targeted due to their relevancy to NRIC’s Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) and Laboratory for Operation and Testing in the U.S. (LOTUS) physical test beds, which are slated to host microreactor and molten salt reactor experiments. The model porting activities consisted of developing detailed documentation for several physics models which originate from the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. We include only contributions from Argonne National Laboratory in this report.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies

This report represents the milestone deliverable M2SF-23SN010301072 “Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies” The report provides a status update of FY23 activities for the work package Argillite Disposal work packages for the DOE-NE Spent Fuel Waste Form Science and Technology (SFWST) Program. Clay-rich geological media (often referred as shale or argillite) are among the most abundant type of sedimentary rock near the Earth’s surface. Argillaceous rock formations have the following advantageous attributes for deep geological nuclear waste disposal: widespread geologic occurrence, found in stable geologic settings, low permeability, self-sealing properties, low effective diffusion coefficient, high sorption capacity, and have the appropriate depth and thickness to host nuclear waste repository concepts. The DOE R&D program under the Spent Fuel Waste Science Technology (SFWST) campaign has made key progress (through experiment, modeling, and testing) in the study of chemical and physical phenomena that could impact the long-term safety assessment of heat-generating nuclear waste disposition in clay/shale/argillaceous rock. International collaboration activities comprising field-scale heater tests, field data monitoring, and laboratory-scale experiments provide key information on changes to the engineered barrier system (EBS) material exposed high thermal loads. Moreover, consideration of direct disposal of large capacity dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) as part of the back-end SNF waste disposition strategy has generated interest in improving our understanding of the effects of elevated temperatures on the engineered barrier system (EBS) design concepts. Chemical and structural analyses of sampled bentonite material from laboratory tests at elevated temperatures are key to the characterization of thermal effects affecting bentonite clay barrier performance. The knowledge provided by these experiments is crucial to constrain the extent of sacrificial zones in the EBS design during the thermal period. Thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) data collected from heater tests and laboratory experiments have been used in the development, validation, and calibration of THMC simulators to model near-field coupled processes. This information leads to the development of simulation approaches to assess issues on coupled processes involving porous media flow, transport, geomechanical phenomena, chemical interactions with barrier/geologic materials, and the development of EBS concepts. These lines of knowledge are central to the design of deep geological backfilled repository concepts where temperature plays a key role in the EBS behavior, potential interactions with host rock, and long-term performance in the safety assessment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

M3SF-24LL010302062-NEA-TDB Management and International Collaborations in Sorption and Thermodynamic Modeling

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010302062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline International Collaborations Work Package Number SF-24LL01030206. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. This includes participation in the Nuclear Energy Agency Thermochemical Database (NEA-TDB) Project and development of methodologies for integrating US and international thermodynamic databases for use in SFWST Generic Disposal System Assessment (GDSA) efforts. A continuing focus for FY24 efforts is to support the US participation in the NEA-TDB effort. The focus of FY24 activities was the development of an agreement for a Phase 7 activity that will start in Q1 of 2025. Mavrik Zavarin is now the US representative on both the Management Board and the Executive group to the NEA-TDB. He is also the POC for the Cements State of the Art Report that is undergoing peer review in FY24. In FY24, we used our position on the NEA-TDB MB and EG to facilitate the integration of NEA-TDB thermochemical data with LLNL’s SUPCRTNE thermodynamic database that supports the SFWST GDSA activities. This effort is coordinated with the Argillite work package SUPCRTNE database development efforts (Wolery, 2024). The goal is to provide a downloadable database that will be hosted on LLNL’s thermodynamics website which incorporates NEA-TDB data into the LLNL database where appropriate. We also began engagement with the EURAD2 program that was initiated in FY24 by our European collaborators at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany. The primary focus of the engagement is with WP20: DITUSC Thermodynamic database evaluation program. A kickoff meeting for this activity is planned for early FY25. Finally, we have been selected to co-host (with Clemson University) the International Conference on Chemistry and Migration Behaviour of Actinides and Fission Products in the Geosphere in 2025 (Migration2025). The meeting will be held September 21-26, 2025, in New Orleans, Louisiana, and will focus on international efforts to understand the risks of radionuclide releases into the environment. This central focus of this conference is on international efforts to develop safe disposal options for nuclear wastes. As such, we are developing a theme focused on US underground nuclear waste repository science.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

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