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An intercomparison is made between vertically integrated water vapor flux estimates from the NASA reanalysis product, and from two versions of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced only by observed sea surface temperature (SST). The period of comparison was from March 1985-February 1991 plus data from the U.S. flood in 1993.
New data on clouds and moisture, made possible by reanalysis of weather satellite observations, show that the atmosphere reacts to warm ocean pools in the Western Pacific Ocean with increased moisture and cloudiness, suggesting a negative feedback limiting the rise in sea-surface temperature.
The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.
Using the assimilated data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, we show that the extratropical signature of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is seen mostly in the North Annular Mode (NAM) of atmospheric variability. To understand the extratropical manifestation of the QBO, we discuss two effects that have been suggested earlier: (1) The extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO modulation of the planetary wave flux, and (2) the extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO-induced meridional circulation. We found that the first effect is seen in wave 1 in the beginning of winter and in wave 2 in the end of winter. The QBO-induced circulation affects midlatitude regions over the entire winter. To investigate the QBONAM coupling, we use an equation that relates the stream function of the meridional circulation and the polar cap averaged temperature, which is a proxy for the NAM index. In addition to the annual (omega)a and the QBO frequency (omega)Q the spectrum of its solutions indicates the satellite frequencies at (omega)a +/- (o.
The moisture transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere (0) is estimated over oceans using satellite data. The transport is the product of the precipitable water and an equivalent velocity (ue), which, by definition, is the depth-averaged wind velocity weighted by humidity. An artificial neural network is employed to construct a relation between the surface wind velocity measured by the spaceborne scatterometer and coincident ue derived using humidity and wind profiles measured by rawinsondes and produced by reanalysis of operational numerical weather prediction (NWP). On the basis of this relation, 0 fields are produced over global tropical and subtropical oceans (40_N- 40_S) at 0.25_ latitude-longitude and twice daily resolutions from August 1999 to December 2003 using surface wind vector from QuikSCAT and precipitable water from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. The derived ue were found to capture the major temporal variability when compared with radiosonde measurements. The average error over global oceans, when compared with NWP data, was comparable with the instrument accuracy specification of space-based scatterometers. The global distribution exhibits the known characteristics of, and reveals more detailed variability than in, previous data.
While there are many potential risks in a Moon or Mars mission, one of the most important and unpredictable is that of crew radiation exposure. The two forms of radiation that impact a mission far from the protective environment of low-earth orbit, are solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). The effects of GCR occur as a long-term cumulative dose that results increased longer-term medical risks such as malignancy and neurological degeneration. Unfortunately, relatively little has been published on the medical management of an acute SPE that could potentially endanger the mission and harm the crew. Reanalysis of the largest SPE in August 1972 revealed that the dose rate was significantly higher than previously stated in the literature. The peak dose rate was 9 cGy h(sup -1) which exceeds the low dose-rate criteria for 25 hrs (National Council on Radiation Protection) and 16 hrs (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation). The bone marrow dose accumulated was 0.8 Gy, which exceeded the 25 and 16 hour criteria and would pose a serious medical risk. Current spacesuits would not provide shielding from the damaging effects for an SPE as large as the 1972 event, as increased shielding from 1-5 grams per square centimeters would do little to shield the bone marrow from exposure. Medical management options for an acute radiation event are discussed based on recommendations from the Department of Homeland Security, Centers for Disease Control and evidence-based scientific literature. The discussion will also consider how to define acute exposure radiation safety limits with respect to exploration-class missions, and to determine the level of care necessary for a crew that may be exposed to an SPE similar to August 1972.
Water vapor feedback, particularly involving water vapor in the upper troposphere (UTH), is widely regarded as the process with the most potential to amplify anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Yet, our ability to quantify observationally water vapor variations in the current climate and the relationships to convective processes remains rather crude. Remote sensing from polar orbiting instruments has played a major role in documenting UTH variability, supplementing highly undersampled and poorly calibrated rawinsonde measurements. Most of our observational understanding of UTH has come from the 6.7 micrometer channel measurements which are subject to cloud contamination uncertainties. In this work we examine UTH variations present in the Special Sensor Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 (SSM/T-2) sensors flying aboard Defense Military Satellite Program (DMSP) polar orbiting satellites during the period 1993 through 2001. We employ data from the the 183.3 +/- 1 GHz channel which is far less sensitive to cirrus than IR methods. Our primary focus is on obtaining more reliable statistics of interannual behavior; i.e. How close to constant RH are interannual variations in T2 UTH over the tropics? How do temperature and moisture variations contribute regionally? The 1997/1998 strong ENS0 warming event and adjacent cool periods provide a strong signal to study, albeit a perturbation of natural climate variability. Modeling the 183.3 GHz channel using reanalysis temperature data, but with climatological water vapor, allows us to infer the separate contribution by water vapor in the observations. In addition, frozen hydrometeors produced by deep convection are also captured in the 150 GHz oxygen channel, providing an opportUnity to relate the incidence of deep convection to water vapor variability. Our results indicate a much larger variation of 183.3 GHz brightness temperatures would be observed were it not for water vapor variations positively correlated with tropical SSTs. Comparisons are made with previous studies using both IR and microwave observations to characterize UTH response to tropical SSTs.
An analysis is presented of the zonal wind and temperature variations supplied by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which have been assimilated in the Reanalysis and the Climate Prediction Center (CCP) data sets. The derived zonal-mean variations are employed. Stimulated by modeling studies, the data are separated into the hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric components, and spectral analysis is applied to study the annual 12-month oscillation and Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). For data samples that cover as much as 40 years, the results reveal a pronounced 5-year modulation of the symmetric AO in the lower stratosphere, which is confined to equatorial latitudes. This modulation is also inferred for the temperature variations but extends to high latitudes, qualitatively consistent with published model results. A comparison between different data samples indicates that the signature of the 5-year oscillation is larger when the QBO of 30 months is more pronounced. Thus there is circumstantial evidence that this periodicity of the QBO is involved in generating the oscillation. The spectral analysis shows that there is a weak anti-symmetric 5-year oscillation in the zonal winds, which could interact with the large antisymmetric A0 to produce the modulation of the symmetric AO as was shown in earlier modeling studies. According to these studies, the 30-month QBO tends to be synchronized by the equatorial Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO), and this would explain why the inferred 5-year modulation is observed to persist and is phase locked over several cycles.
This study analyzed daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters to determine how mid-tropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examinations of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the the boundary level decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics.
A fourth paper now in press is, Low-level cloud variability over the equatorial cold tongue in observations and models, by D. K. Mansbach and J. R. Norris (2007, J. Climate). This study examined cloud and meteorological observations from satellite, surface, and reanalysis datasets and fount that monthly anomalies in low-level cloud amount and near-surface temperature advection are strongly negatively correlated on the southern side of the equatorial Pacific cold tongue. This inverse correlation occurs independently of relationships between cloud amount and sea surface temperature (SST) or lower tropospheric static stability (LTS) and the combination of advection plus SST or LTS explains significantly more interannual cloud variability in a multilinear regression than does SST or LTS alone. Warm anomalous advection occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is well defined and the southeastern Pacific trade winds bring relatively warm air over colder water. Ship meteorological reports and soundings show that the atmospheric surface layer becomes stratified under these conditions, thus inhibiting the upward mixing of moisture needed to sustain cloudiness against subsidence and entrainment drying. Cold anomalous advection primarily occurs when the equatorial cold tongue is weak or absent and the air-sea temperature difference is substantially negative. These conditions favor a more convective atmospheric boundary layer, greater cloud amount, and less frequent occurrence of clear sky. Examination of output from global climate models developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) indicates that both models generally fail to simulate the cloud-advection relationships observed on the northern and southern sides of the equatorial cold tongue. Although the GFDL atmosphere model does reproduce the expected signs of cloud-advection correlations when forced with prescribed historical SST variations, it does not consistently do so when coupled to an ocean model. The NCAR model has difficulty reproducing the observed correlations in both atmosphere-only and coupled versions. This suggests that boundary layer cloud parameterizations could be improved through better representation of the effects of advection over varying SST.
This study examines variability in marine low cloud properties derived from semi-global observations by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, as linked to the aerosol index (AI) and lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). AI is derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Terra MODIS) sensor and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transportation (GOCART) model, and is used to represent column-integrated aerosol concentrations. LTS is derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, and represents the background thermodynamic environment in which the clouds form. Global statistics reveal that cloud droplet size tends to be smallest in polluted (high-AI) and strong inversion (high-LTS) environments. Statistical quantification shows that cloud droplet size is better correlated with AI than it is with LTS. Simultaneously, the cloud liquid water path (CLWP) tends to decrease as AI increases. This correlation does not support the hypothesis or assumption that constant or increased CLWP is associated with high aerosol concentrations. Global variability in corrected cloud albedo (CCA), the product of cloud optical depth and cloud fraction, is very well explained by LTS, while both AI and LTS are needed to explain local variability in CCA. Most of the local correlations between AI and cloud properties are similar to the results from the global statistics, while weak anomalous aerosol-cloud correlations appear locally in the regions where simultaneous high (low) AI and low (high) LTS compensate each other. Daytime diurnal cycles explain additional variability in cloud properties. CCA has the largest diurnal cycle in high-LTS regions. Cloud droplet size and CLWP have weak diurnal cycles that differ between clean and polluted environments. The combined results suggest that investigations of marine low cloud radiative forcing and its relationship to hypothesized aerosol indirect effects must consider the combined effects of aerosols, thermodynamics, and the diurnal cycle.
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data show a significant midweek increase in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., due to afternoon intensification. TRMM radar data show a significant midweek increase in rain area and in the heights reached by afternoon storms. Weekly variations in model-reanalysis wind patterns over the region and in rain-gauge data are consistent with the satellite data. A midweek decrease of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic is also seen. EPA measurements of particulate concentrations show a midweek peak over much of the U.S. These observations are consistent with the theory that anthropogenic air pollution suppresses cloud-drop coalescence and early rainout during the growth of thunderstorms over land, allowing more water to be carried above the 0 C isotherm, where freezing yields additional latent heat, invigorating the storms--most dramatically evidenced by the shift in the midweek distribution of afternoon-storm heights--and producing large ice hydrometeors. The enhanced convection induces regional convergence, uplifting and an overall increase of rainfall. Compensating downward air motion suppresses convection over the adjacent ocean areas. Pre-TRMM-era data suggest that the weekly cycle only became strong enough to be detectable beginning in the 1980's. Rain-gauge data also suggest that a weekly cycle may have been detectable in the 1940's, but with peak rainfall on Sunday or Monday, possibly explained by the difference in composition of aerosol pollution at that time. This "weekend effect" may thus offer climate researchers an opportunity to study the regional climate-scale impact of aerosols on storm development and monsoon-like circulation.
Lower stratospheric wind and temperature measurements made from NASA's high-altitude ER-2 research aircraft during the CRYSTAL-FACE campaign in July 2002 were analyzed to retrieve information on small scale gravity waves (GWs) at the aircraft's flight level (typically approximately 20 km altitude). For a given flight segment, the S-transform (a Gaussian wavelet transform) was used to search for and identify small horizontal scale GW events, and to estimate their apparent horizontal wavelengths. The horizontal propagation directions of the events were determined using the Stokes parameter method combined with the cross S-transform analysis. The vertical temperature gradient was used to determine the vertical wavelengths of the events. GW momentum fluxes were calculated from the cross S-transform. Other wave parameters such as intrinsic frequencies were calculated using the GW dispersion relation. More than 100GW events were identified. They were generally high frequency waves with vertical wavelength of approximately 5 km and horizontal wavelength generally shorter than 20 km. Their intrinsic propagation directions were predominantly toward the east, whereas their ground-based propagation directions were primarily toward the west. Among the events, approximately 20% of them had very short horizontal wavelength, very high intrinsic frequency, and relatively small momentum fluxes, and thus they were likely trapped in the lower stratosphere. Using the estimated GW parameters and the background winds and stabilities from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, we were able to trace the sources of the events using a simple reverse ray-tracing. More than 70% of the events were traced back to convective sources in the troposphere, and the sources were generally located upstream of the locations of the events observed at the aircraft level. Finally, a probability density function of the reversible cooling rate due to GWs was obtained in this study, which may be useful for cirrus cloud models.
Phase equilibrium experiments on the most magnesian Apollo 15C green picritic glass composition indicate a multiple saturation point with olivine and orthopyroxene at 1520 C and 1.3 GPa (about 260 km depth in the moon). This composition has the highest Mg# of any lunar picritic glass and the shallowest multiple saturation point. Experiments on an Apollo 15A composition indicate a multiple saturation point with olivine and orthopyroxene at 1520 C and 2.2 GPa (about 440 km depth in the moon). The importance of the distinctive compositional trends of the Apollo 15 groups A, B, and C picritic glasses merits the reanalysis of NASA slide 15426,72 with modern electron microprobe techniques. We confirm the compositional trends reported by Delano (1979, 1986) in the major element oxides SiO2, TiO2, Al2O3, Cr2O3, FeO, MnO, MgO, and CaO, and we also obtained data for the trace elements P2O5, K2O, Na2O, NiO, S, Cu, Cl, Zn, and F. Petrogenetic modeling demonstrates that the Apollo 15 A-B-C glass trends could not have been formed by fractional crystallization or any continuous assimilation/fractional crystallization (AFC) process. The B and C glass compositional trends could not have been formed by batch or incremental melting of an olivine + orthopyroxene source or any other homogeneous source, though the A glasses may have been formed by congruent melting over a small pressure range at depth. The B compositional trend is well modeled by starting with an intermediate A composition and assimilating a shallower, melted cumulate, and the C compositional trend is well modeled by a second assimilation event. The assimilation process envisioned is one in which heat and mass transfer were separated in space and time. In an initial intrusive event, a picritic magma crystallized and provided heat to melt magma ocean cumulates. In a later replenishment event, the picritic magma incrementally mixed with the melted cumulate (creating the compositional trends in the green glass data set), ascended to the lunar surface, and erupted as a fire fountain. A barometer created from multiple saturation points provides a depth estimate of other glasses in the A-B-C trend and of the depths of assimilation. This barometer demonstrates that the Apollo 15 A-B-C trend originated over a depth range of approx.460 km to approx.260 km within the moon.
Reanalysis of the Apollo 15 A, B, and C green glass beads from slide 15426,72, led to the discovery of patchy, highly vesicular glass rims adhering to beads. These rims are high in S and Ni and low in MgO, but otherwise compositionally similar to the green glasses. We find that these rims represent a unique melt composition that places constraints on lunar magmatic processes. Combining the compositional data for the vesicular glass rims with new minor element data for the green glass beads leads us to hypothesize that the vesicular rim fluid originated near the green glass source, at about 2.2 GPa. These findings support the theory of a heterogeneous lunar mantle, and suggest that sulfur did not drive the eruption from depth, but that degassing volatiles into the vacuum did drive the final fire fountain eruption.
The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.
Ocean surface turbulent fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Deriving physically-based latent and sensible heat fluxes from satellite is dependent on inferences of near surface moisture and temperature from coarser layer retrievals or satellite radiances. Uncertainties in these "retrievals" propagate through bulk aerodynamic algorithms, interacting as well with error properties of surface wind speed, also provided by satellite. By systematically evaluating an array of passive microwave satellite algorithms, the SEAFLUX project is providing improved understanding of these errors and finding pathways for reducing or eliminating them. In this study we focus on evaluating the interannual variability of several passive microwave-based estimates of latent heat flux starting from monthly mean gridded data. The algorithms considered range from those based essentially on SSM/I (e.g. HOAPS) to newer approaches that consider additional moisture information from SSM/T-2 or AMSU-B and lower tropospheric temperature data from AMSU-A. On interannual scales, variability arising from ENSO events and time-lagged responses of ocean turbulent and radiative fluxes in other ocean basins (as well as the extratropical Pacific) is widely recognized, but still not well quantified. Locally, these flux anomalies are of order 10-20 W/sq m and present a relevant "target" with which to verify algorithm performance in a climate context. On decadal time scales there is some evidence from reanalyses and remotely-sensed fluxes alike that tropical ocean-averaged latent heat fluxes have increased 5-10 W/sq m since the early 1990s. However, significant uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Our work addresses the origin of these uncertainties and provides statistics on time series of tropical ocean averages, regional space / time correlation analysis, and separation of contributions by variations in wind and near surface humidity deficit. Comparison to variations in reanalysis data sets is also provided for reference.
The Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) data set contains over 200 parameters formulated for assessing and designing renewable energy systems.The SSE data set is formulated from NASA satellite- and reanalysis-derived insolation and meteorological data for the 10-year period July 1983 through June 1993. Results are provided for 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude grid cells over the globe. Average daily and monthly measurements for 1195 World Radiation Data Centre ground sites are also available. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=1993-06-30] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=1 degree; Longitude_Resolution=1 degree].