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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine for Simulating Quantum Circuits at Exascale

The numerical simulation of quantum circuits is an indispensable tool for development, verification, and validation of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms intended for near-term quantum co-processors. The emergence of exascale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms presents new opportunities for pushing the boundaries of quantum circuit simulation. Here, we present a modernized version of the Tensor Network Quantum Virtual Machine (TNQVM) that serves as the quantum circuit simulation backend in the eXtreme-scale ACCelerator (XACC) framework. The new version is based on the scalable tensor network processing library ExaTN (Exascale Tensor Networks). It provides multiple configurable quantum circuit simulators that perform either an exact quantum circuit simulation via the full tensor network contraction or an approximate simulation via a suitably chosen tensor factorization scheme. Upon necessity, stochastic noise modeling from real quantum processors is incorporated into the simulations by modeling quantum channels with Kraus tensors. By combining the portable XACC quantum programming frontend and the scalable ExaTN numerical processing backend, we introduce an end-to-end virtual quantum development environment that can scale from laptops to future exascale platforms. We report initial benchmarks of our framework, which include a demonstration of the distributed execution, incorporation of quantum decoherence models, and simulation of the random quantum circuits used for the certification of quantum supremacy on Google’s Sycamore superconducting architecture.

Nguyen, Thien↗

WSR-88D Cell Trends

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Mashiku, Alinda↗

Qutrit Randomized Benchmarking

Ternary quantum processors offer significant potential computational advantages over conventional qubit technologies, leveraging the encoding and processing of quantum information in qutrits (three-level systems). Therefore, to evaluate and compare the performance of such emerging quantum hardware it is essential to have robust benchmarking methods suitable for a higher-dimensional Hilbert space. We demonstrate extensions of industry standard randomized benchmarking (RB) protocols, developed and used extensively for qubits, suitable for ternary quantum logic. Using a superconducting five-qutrit processor, we find an average single-qutrit process infidelity of 3.8×10 -3 . Through interleaved RB, we characterize a few relevant gates, and employ simultaneous RB to fully characterize crosstalk errors. Finally, we apply cycle benchmarking to a two-qutrit CSUM gate and obtain a two-qutrit process fidelity of 0.85. Our results present and demonstrate RB-based tools to characterize the performance of a qutrit processor, and a general approach to diagnose control errors in future qudit hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Radiative Effect of Clouds on Tropospheric Chemistry in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model

Clouds exert an important influence on tropospheric photochemistry through modification of solar radiation that determines photolysis frequencies (J-values). We assess the radiative effect of clouds on photolysis frequencies and key oxidants in the troposphere with a global three-dimensional (3-D) chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation system (GEOS DAS) at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We focus on the year of 2001 with the GEOS-3 meteorological observations. Photolysis frequencies are calculated using the Fast-J radiative transfer algorithm. The GEOS-3 global cloud optical depth and cloud fraction are evaluated and generally consistent with the satellite retrieval products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Results using the linear assumption, which assumes linear scaling of cloud optical depth with cloud fraction in a grid box, show global mean OH concentrations generally increase by less than 6% because of the radiative effect of clouds. The OH distribution shows much larger changes (with maximum decrease of approx.20% near the surface), reflecting the opposite effects of enhanced (weakened) photochemistry above (below) clouds. The global mean photolysis frequencies for J[O1D] and J[NO2] in the troposphere change by less than 5% because of clouds; global mean O3 concentrations in the troposphere increase by less than 5%. This study shows tropical upper tropospheric O3 to be less sensitive to the radiative effect of clouds than previously reported (approx.5% versus approx.20-30%). These results emphasize that the dominant effect of clouds is to influence the vertical redistribution of the intensity of photochemical activity while global average effects remain modest, again contrasting with previous studies. Differing vertical distributions of clouds may explain part, but not the majority, of these discrepancies between models. Using an approximate random overlap or a maximum-random overlap scheme to take account of the effect of cloud overlap in the vertical reduces the impact of clouds on photochemistry but does not significantly change our results with respect to the modest global average effect.

Liu, Hongyu↗

Pulsed Thermal Tomography Nondestructive Examination of Additively Manufactured Reactor Materials and Components (Final Technical Report)

Metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) is a promising method for cost-efficient fabrication of complex shape structures for applications in harsh environment, such as in a nuclear reactor. However, internal defects (pores) occur in high-strength AM alloys, which are manufactured with Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) AM method. Pulsed Infrared Thermography (PIT) is an efficient nondestructive evaluation (NDE) method to examine actual structures, because this method offers one-sided non-contact measurements, and fast processing of large sample areas. However, imaging of material defects, particularly defects with sizes at microscopic level, is challenging. In this report, we benchmark the performance of several Unsupervised Learning (UL) algorithms designed to enhance imaging of microscopic defects in metals with PIT. UL aims to learn the latent principal patterns (dictionaries) in PIT data to detect defects with minimal human supervision. Performance of Independent Component Analysis (ICA), Sparse Coding (SC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was compared using F-score, UL model training time and defects reconstruction time. We obtained the average F-score of 0.75, and a highest F-score of 0.89 for the EFA algorithm. Overall, EFA outperforms other UL algorithms considered in this study. In another approach, we investigate Thermal Tomography (TT), which is a computational method for reconstruction of depth profile of internal material defects from PIT nondestructive evaluation (NDE). TT algorithm obtains depth reconstructions of thermal effusivity, which has been shown to provide visualization of subsurface internals defects in metals. In many applications, one needs to determine the defect shape and orientation from reconstructed effusivity images. Interpretation of TT images is non-trivial because of blurring, which increases with depth due to heat diffusion-based nature of image formation. We have developed a deep learning convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify size and orientation of subsurface material defects in TT images. CNN was trained with TT images produced with computer simulations of 2D metallic structures (thin plates) containing elliptical subsurface voids. Performance of CNN was investigated using test TT images developed with computer simulations of plates containing elliptical defects, and defects with shape imported from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images. CNN demonstrated the ability to classify radii and angular orientation of elliptical defects in previously unseen test TT images. We have also demonstrated that CNN trained on TT images of elliptical defects is capable of classifying shape and orientation of irregular defects. Training the CNN on irregular defect shapes instead of on elliptical shapes would make the resulting classifications more descriptive of actual defect shapes. However, this requires a much higher volume of SEM images of material defects, which are difficult to obtain because of random occurrence of defects in LPBF. To address this challenge, we developed a generative adversarial network (GAN) to augment the existing dataset of SEM defect images. The GAN model is demonstrated to create novel yet realistic defect shapes that can be used as input for simulated PTT images to train CNN. We also investigate several approaches based on Gaussian Random Circle and Bezier Curves for constructing parametric models of irregular-shape defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

4-Clique network minor embedding for quantum annealers

Quantum annealing is a quantum algorithm for computing solutions to combinatorial optimization problems. This study proposes a method for minor embedding optimization problems onto sparse quantum annealing hardware graphs called 4-clique network minor embedding. This method is in contrast to the standard minor embedding technique of using a path of linearly connected qubits in order to represent a logical variable state. The 4-clique minor embedding is possible on Pegasus graph connectivity, which is the native hardware graph for some of the current D-Wave quantum annealers. The Pegasus hardware graph contains many cliques of size 4, making it possible to form a graph composed entirely of paths of connected 4-cliques on which a problem can be minor-embedded. The 4-clique chains come at the cost of additional qubit usage on the hardware graph, but they allow for stronger coupling within each chain, thereby increasing chain integrity, reducing chain breaks, and allow for greater usage of the available energy scale for programming logical problem coefficients on current quantum annealers. The 4-clique minor embedding technique is compared with the standard linear path minor embedding with experiments on two D-Wave quantum annealing processors with Pegasus hardware graphs. We show proof-of-concept experiments where the 4-clique minor embeddings can use weak chain strengths while successfully carrying out the computation of minimizing random all-to-all spin glass problem instances. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Smart Scattering Scanning Near-Field Optical Microscopy

Scattering scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM) provides spectroscopic imaging from molecular to quantum materials with few nanometer deep subdiffraction limited spatial resolution. However, in its conventional implementation s-SNOM is slow to effectively acquire a series of spatio-spectral images, especially with large fields of view. This problem is further exacerbated for weak resonance contrast or when using light sources with limited spectral irradiance. Indeed, the generally limited signal-to-noise ratio prevents sampling a weak signal at the Nyquist sampling rate. Here, we demonstrate how acquisition time and sampling rate can be significantly reduced by using compressed sampling, matrix completion, and adaptive random sampling, while maintaining or even enhancing the physical or chemical image content. We use fully sampled real data sets of molecular, biological, and quantum materials as ground-truth physical data and show how deep under-sampling with a corresponding reduction of acquisition time by 1 order of magnitude or more retains the core s-SNOM image information. We demonstrate that a sampling rate of up to 6× smaller than the Nyquist criterion can be applied, which would provide a 30-fold reduction in the data required under typical experimental conditions. Furthermore, our smart s-SNOM approach is generally applicable and provides systematic full spatio-spectral s-SNOM imaging with a large field of view at high spectral resolution and reduced acquisition time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Towards operational atmospheric correction of airborne hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy: Algorithm evaluation, key parameter analysis, and machine learning emulators

Atmospheric correction of airborne hyperspectral imaging spectroscopy (AHIS) to obtain high-quality surface reflectance is the prerequisite for remote sensing applications. Over the last decades, different atmospheric correction methods have been developed based on radiative transfer models (RTMs), however, the relative performances of different algorithms are unclear. Automated operational atmospheric correction methods to process large-volume AHIS data in a high-accurate and high-throughput manner are still lacking. Therefore, this study proposed an operational atmospheric correction pipeline for deriving surface reflectance from AHIS data. To ensure the accuracy and efficiency of the pipeline, we focused on three specific aspects: (1) selecting a suitable RTM for the development of atmospheric lookup tables (LUTs) by comparing the commercial MODerate resolution atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN) and open-sourced Library for Radiative TRANsfer (LibRadTRAN) models, where the widely-used software, Atmospheric/Topographic Correction for Airborne Imagery (ATCOR), was used as benchmarks; (2) identifying key atmospheric correction parameters and determining suitable sources for parameter retrievals including AHIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET); and (3) testing the performance of using machine learning emulators to speed up the RTM-based atmospheric correction. Results indicate that (1) atmospheric correction based on MODTRAN LUTs can produce surface reflectance accurately with mean absolute errors < 0.05 and cosine similarities > 0.98 compared to field measurements, which is comparable to the software ATCOR and slightly outperforms the LibRadTRAN LUTs; (2) sobol global sensitivity analysis demonstrates that in the atmospheric correction, visibility and water vapor are two key parameters that can be accurately derived from AHIS in contrast to MODIS or AERONET data; and (3) Random Forest emulators can produce accurate estimations of surface reflectance with mean absolute errors < 0.03 and cosine similarities > 0.98 for higher processing efficiency and determine a suitable set of wavelengths for retrieving atmospheric visibility and water vapor. In conclusion, the proposed atmospheric correction pipeline also improved the four-stream radiative transfer theory for airborne applications by considering adjacent effects from airborne surrounding pixels and can also be applied for atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data from spaceborne missions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Heterogeneous System for Eagle Detection, Deterrent, and Wildlife Collision Detection for Wind Turbines (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the design, implementation, and test of an integrated system for automated detection and deterrence of eagles, with included wind turbine blade strike detection and imaging functionality. A machine learning approach was used in conjunction with a 360° camera system for automated detection and classification of golden eagles. This was developed using footage obtained from trained golden eagles and other raptors, in collaboration with wildlife biologists and professional bird handlers. Oregon State University developed a visual deterrent system, which uses inflatable anthropomorphic sculptures with random, kinetic motion to deter eagles, and conducted limited field testing on live eagles; the deterrent can be triggered by the visual detection of eagles using the vision system. Finally, a multi-sensor module was developed that is mounted at the turbine blade root. This module measures vibration and other motions to detect blade strikes, and an integrated on-blade camera captures an image of any impacting objects. Long-term, this blade strike detection system is intended to support an automatic monitoring and certification system for the eagle detection and deterent system. Independent field testing of each system component is described. Testing of the integrated system on an operational wind turbine was conducted across three separate field tests. This includes multi-day fields tests on a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) in Boulder, CO in October 2018 and July 2019; installation procedures, test procedures, and a summary of collected data are presented. A third multi-day on-turbine field test is also presented, which was performed using a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the North American Wind Research and Training Center (NAWRTC) at Mesalands Community College, Tucumcari, NM in April 2019. Across these field tests, the vision system was demonstrated using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and the eagle classification algorithm was not tested; the visual deterrent system was demonstrated, including automatic, remote deployment following surrogate visual detections; and, multi-sensor on-blade data was recorded across multiple wind turbine operational conditions and through more than 100 surrogate blade strikes using soft projectiles, including the successful demonstration of automatic image capture of striking objects. This data set was also used for offline development and validation of enhanced collision detection algorithms. As summarized in this report, the development and field validation of an integrated detection, deterrent, and blade collision detection system represents a critical proof of concept for future technology development of related detection and deterrent technologies, where both deterrent as well as collision detection recording devices are needed for future siting, monitoring, and operation of wind turbine installations, both onshore and offshore.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

ROM-Based Surrogate Systems Modeling of EBR-II

We report the System Analysis Module (SAM), developed and maintained by Argonne National Laboratory, is designed to provide whole-plant transient safety analysis capabilities for a number of advanced non-light water reactors, including sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), and molten salt reactor (MSR)/fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) designs. SAM is primarily constructed as a systems-level analysis tool, with the potential to incorporate reduced order models from three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to improve characterization of complex, multidimensional physics. It is recognized that the computational expense associated with CFD can be intractable for various engineering analyses, such as uncertainty quantification, inference, and design optimization. This paper explores the reducibility of a SAM model using recent advances in randomized linear algebra techniques, which attempt to find recurring patterns in the various realizations generated by a model after randomly perturbing all its input parameters. The reduction is described in terms of fewer degrees of freedom (DOFs), referred to as the active DOFs, for the model variables such as input model parameters and model responses. The results indicate that there is significant room for additional reduction that may be leveraged for additional computational gains when employing SAM for engineering-intensive analyses that require repeated model executions. Different from physics-based reduction approaches, the proposed approach allows one to estimate upper bounds on the reduction errors, which are rigorously developed in this work. Finally, different methods for surrogate model construction, such as regression and neural network-based training, are employed to correlate the input and output active DOFs, which are related back to the original variables using matrix-based linear transformations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On-Orbit Multi-Field Wavefront Control with a Kalman Filter

A document describes a multi-field wavefront control (WFC) procedure for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) on-orbit optical telescope element (OTE) fine-phasing using wavefront measurements at the NIRCam pupil. The control is applied to JWST primary mirror (PM) segments and secondary mirror (SM) simultaneously with a carefully selected ordering. Through computer simulations, the multi-field WFC procedure shows that it can reduce the initial system wavefront error (WFE), as caused by random initial system misalignments within the JWST fine-phasing error budget, from a few dozen micrometers to below 50 nm across the entire NIRCam Field of View, and the WFC procedure is also computationally stable as the Monte-Carlo simulations indicate. With the incorporation of a Kalman Filter (KF) as an optical state estimator into the WFC process, the robustness of the JWST OTE alignment process can be further improved. In the presence of some large optical misalignments, the Kalman state estimator can provide a reasonable estimate of the optical state, especially for those degrees of freedom that have a significant impact on the system WFE. The state estimate allows for a few corrections to the optical state to push the system towards its nominal state, and the result is that a large part of the WFE can be eliminated in this step. When the multi-field WFC procedure is applied after Kalman state estimate and correction, the stability of fine-phasing control is much more certain. Kalman Filter has been successfully applied to diverse applications as a robust and optimal state estimator. In the context of space-based optical system alignment based on wavefront measurements, a KF state estimator can combine all available wavefront measurements, past and present, as well as measurement and actuation error statistics to generate a Maximum-Likelihood optimal state estimator. The strength and flexibility of the KF algorithm make it attractive for use in real-time optical system alignment when WFC alone cannot effectively align the system.

Lou, John↗

Investigation of electrolyte measurement in diluted whole blood using spectroscopic and chemometric methods

The feasibility of using near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy in combination with partial least-squares (PLS) regression was explored to measure electrolyte concentration in whole blood samples. Spectra were collected from diluted blood samples containing randomized, clinically relevant concentrations of Na+, K+, and Ca2+. Sodium was also studied in lysed blood. Reference measurements were made from the same samples using a standard clinical chemistry instrument. Partial least squares (PLS) was used to develop calibration models for each ion with acceptable results (Na+, R2 = 0.86, CVSEP = 9.5 mmol/L; K+, R2 = 0.54, CVSEP = 1.4 mmol/L; Ca2+, R2 = 0.56, CVSEP = 0.18 mmol/L). Slightly improved results were obtained using a narrower wavelength region (470-925 nm) where hemoglobin, but not water, absorbed indicating that ionic interaction with hemoglobin is as effective as water in causing measurable spectral variation. Good models were also achieved for sodium in lysed blood, illustrating that cell swelling, which is correlated with sodium concentration, is not required for calibration model development.

Non-NASA Center↗

Computation of asymmetric supersonic flows around cones at large incidence

The Schiff-Steger parabolized Navier-Stokes (PNS) code has been modified to allow computation of conical flowfields around cones at high incidence. The improved algorithm of Degani and Schiff has been incorporated with the PNS code. This algorithm adds the cross derivative and circumferential viscous terms to the original PNS code and modifies the algebraic eddy viscosity turbulence model to take into account regions of so called cross-flow separation. Assuming the flowfield is conical (but not necessarily symmetric) a marching stepback procedure is used: the solution is marched one step downstream using improved PNS code and the flow variables are then scaled to place the solution back to the original station. The process is repeated until no change in the flow variables is observed with further marching. The flow variables are then constant along rays of the flowfield. The experiments obtained by Bannik and Nebbeling were chosen as a test case. In these experiments a cone of 7.5 deg. half angle at Mach number 2.94 and Reynolds number 1.372 x 10(7) was tested up 34 deg. angle of attack. At high angle of attack nonconical asymmetric leeward side vortex patterns were observed. In the first set of computations, using an earlier obtained solution of the above cone for angle of attack of 22.6 deg. and at station x=0.5 as a starting solution, the angle of attack was gradually increased up to 34 deg. During this procedure the grid was carfully adjusted to capture the bow shock. A stable, converged symmetric solution was obtained. Since the numerical code converged to a symmetric solution which is not the physical one, the stability was tested by a random perturbation at each point. The possible effect of surface roughness or non perfect body shape was also investigated. It was concluded that although the assumption of conical viscous flows can be very useful for certain cases, it can not be used for the present case. Thus the second part of the investigation attempted to obtain a marching (in space) solution with the PNS method using the conical solution as initial data. Finally, the solution of the full Navier-Stokes equations was carried out.

Degani, David↗

Testing and Design of Discriminants for Local Seismic Events Recorded during the Redmond Salt Mine Monitoring Experiment

The Redmond Salt Mine (RSM) Monitoring Experiment in Utah was designed to record seismoacoustic data at distances less than 50 km for algorithm testing and development. During the experiment from October 2017 to July 2019, six broadband seismic stations were operating at a time, with three of them having fixed locations for the duration, whereas the three other stations were moved to different locations every one-and-half to two-and-half months. RSM operations consist of nighttime underground blasting several times per week. The RSM is located in proximity to a belt of active seismicity, allowing direct comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources. Using the recorded data set, we built 1373 events with local magnitude (M L ) of -2.4 and lower to 3.3. For 75 blasts (RMEs) from the Redmond Salt Mine and 206 tectonic earthquakes (EQs), both M L and the coda duration magnitude (MC) are well constrained. We used these events to test and design discriminants that separate the RMEs from the EQs and are effective at local distances. The discriminants consist of M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, Pg/Sg phase-amplitude ratios, and Rg/Sg spectral amplitude ratios, as well as different combinations of two or more of these classifiers. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of 0.92–1.0 for M L -M C , low-frequency Sg to high-frequency Sg, and Rg/Sg indicate that these discriminants are very effective. Conversely, the AUC of only 0.57 for Pg/Sg suggests that this discriminant is only slightly better than a random classifier. Among the effective classifiers, Rg/Sg, shows the lowest likelihood of misclassification (4.3%) for the populations. In conclusion, results of joint discriminant analyses suggest that even the arguably ineffective single classifier, like Pg/Sg in this case, can provide some value when used in combination with others.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A flexible class of priors for orthonormal matrices with basis function-specific structure

Statistical modeling of high-dimensional matrix-valued data motivates the use of a low-rank representation that simultaneously summarizes key characteristics of the data and enables dimension reduction. Low-rank representations commonly factor the original data into the product of orthonormal basis functions and weights, where each basis function represents an independent feature of the data. However, the basis functions in these factorizations are typically computed using algorithmic methods that cannot quantify uncertainty or account for basis function correlation structure a priori. While there exist Bayesian methods that allow for a common correlation structure across basis functions, empirical examples motivate the need for basis function-specific dependence structure. We propose a prior distribution for orthonormal matrices that can explicitly model basis function-specific structure. The prior is used within a general probabilistic model for singular value decomposition to conduct posterior inference on the basis functions while accounting for measurement error and fixed effects. We discuss how the prior specification can be used for various scenarios and demonstrate favorable model properties through synthetic data examples. Finally, we apply our method to two-meter air temperature data from the Pacific Northwest, enhancing our understanding of the Earth system’s internal variability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗