Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PROSPECT”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Improvement and generalization of ABCD method with Bayesian inference

To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors, such as the capabilities and the performance of the accelerator and detectors, the use and exploitation of the available information, the design of search strategies and observables, as well as the proposal of new models. We focus on the use of the information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning techniques and tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b p p → h h → b b ‾ b b ‾ , selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with 1% and 0.5% true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal. We discuss potential prospects for taking this Bayesian data-driven paradigm into more realistic scenarios.

Alvarez, Ezequiel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pair production of charged IDM scalars at high energy CLIC

The Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) was proposed as the next energy-frontier infrastructure at CERN, to study e ^+ + e ^- − collisions at three centre-of-mass energy stages: 380,GeV, 1.5,TeV and 3,TeV. The main goal of its high-energy stages is to search for the new physics beyond the Standard Model (SM). The Inert Doublet Model (IDM) is one of the simplest SM extensions and introduces four new scalar particles: H ^\pm ± , A and H; the lightest, H, is stable and hence a natural dark matter (DM) candidate. A set of benchmark points is considered, which are consistent with current theoretical and experimental constraints and promise detectable signals at future colliders. Prospects for observing pair-production of the IDM scalars at CLIC were previously studied using signatures with two leptons in the final state. In the current study, discovery reach for the IDM charged scalar pair-production is considered for the semi-leptonic final state at the two high-energy CLIC stages. Full simulation analysis, based on the current CLIC detector model, is presented for five selected IDM scenarios. Results are then extended to the larger set of benchmarks using the Delphes fast simulation framework. The CLIC detector model for Delphes has been modified to take pile-up contribution from the beam-induced \gamma\gamma γ γ interactions into account, which is crucial for the presented analysis. Results of the study indicate that heavy, charged IDM scalars can be discovered at CLIC for most of the proposed benchmark scenarios, with very high statistical significance.

Klamka, Jan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics motivation and detector upgrades for the new era of the ATLAS experiment

The ATLAS experiment at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) will be upgraded in two stages to prepare first for the Run~3 data-taking campaign, during which the integrated luminosity will roughly double, and then for the High-Luminosity LHC program with an ultimate integrated luminosity of up to 4 ab ^{{-1}} − 1 . These upgrades and high-statistics datasets will allow ATLAS to perform searches and precision measurements to constrain the Standard Model in yet-unexplored phase spaces and in the Higgs sector. This contribution summarizes the ATLAS detector upgrades and selected physics prospects for Run~3 and the HL-LHC.

Nielsen, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIS physics at the EIC and LHeC and connections to the future LHC and $\nu$A programs

Deeply-inelastic scattering (DIS) stands to enter a golden age with the prospect of precision programs at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) and Large Hadron-electron Collider (LHeC). While these programs will be of considerable importance to resolving longstanding issues in (non)perturbative QCD as well as hadronic and nuclear structure, they will also have valuable implications for a wider range of physics at the Energy and Intensity Frontiers, including at the High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) and future \nu A ν A facilities. In this plenary contribution, we highlight a number of salient examples of the potential HEP impact from the complementary EIC and LHeC programs drawn from their respective Yellow Report and Whitepaper. Interested readers are encouraged to consult the extensive studies and literature from which these examples are taken for more detail.

Hobbs, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2020

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase Equilibria and Thermochemistry of Advanced Fuels: Modeling Burnup Behavior (Final Report)

Achieving the goal of developing advanced fuel concepts that meet the DOE objectives of being robust, demonstrating high performance, and are more tolerant of accident conditions than current fuel systems will require a thorough understanding of the thermophysical and thermochemical properties of the constituent materials. Non-oxide fuel systems are being explored under the Advanced Fuels Program that hold significant promise for improved performance and accident tolerance, including the uranium silicide-based system considered in the current work. Prospective cladding materials currently considered that contribute to improved accident tolerance include silicon carbide composites and ferritic alloys (Fe-Cr-Al base compositions). Thus, the effort developed thermochemical models and values, supported with targeted experiments, to evaluate the ferritic alloy and silicon carbide composite cladding systems in contrast to current zirconium alloy cladding. The developed detailed understanding will serve to aid in relatively early screening of candidate systems to avoid wasted effort, guide development of new fuel forms, and to provide a basis for predicting and modeling fuel performance. Major deliverables for the project included: Thermochemical assessment and models of phases in the U-Si and U-Si-N systems; thermochemical evaluation supported by experimental measurements of fuel-cladding interactions of silicide fuel with baseline zirconium, ceramic composite, and ferritic alloy cladding; thermochemical assessment and models of phases supported by experimental measurements for silicide fuel with key fission products provided in a dataset and reported in refereed publications. Within the project a significantly refined U-Si phase diagram was developed and reported that now includes homogeneity ranges for key phases, such at the U 3 Si 2 proposed fuel phase, and settles issues with regard to uncertainty in the stability of some phases. Computational efforts together with key experiments has determined phase formation in interactions between U 3 Si 2 and Zircaloy-4 cladding material, a ferritic FeCrAlY alloy of interest as an advanced cladding material, and silicon carbide, also of interest as a fiber-reinforced composite cladding. As expected, very significant reactions occur between U3Si2 and Zircaloy-4, with much less interaction at higher temperatures for the ferritic alloy, and finally interactions with SiC only in the region of contact. A potentially major issue is the stability of U 3 Si 2 fuel that has undergone significant burnup. The result is the loss of the uranium metal, liberating silicon, and the formation of concomitant fission product elements that either dissolve in the U 3 Si 2 phase or form independent, and possibly silicide phases. A combination of experimental determinations of phase formation of U 3 Si 2 reacted with representative fission products yttrium, gadolinium, cerium, zirconium, and molybdenum and first principles calculations has helped understand the fuel chemistry. The behavior of the U 3 Si 2 phase and the partitioning of silicon to possible fission product phases with burnup was thus determined, with significant dissolution in U 3 Si 2 of cerium, gadolinium, zirconium, and plutonium predicted along with independent phase formation of a U-Mo-Si ternary phase, yttrium silicide, and elemental selenium. It can be concluded that at significant burnup there will be a very minor amount of the U 3 Si 2 fuel phase that will decompose to a lower silicide or a uranium alloy as silicon preferentially forms a secondary phase.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Buildings While the Design is Still in the Architect's Imagination

Very early in the design process, prior to drawing a single line, architects get information from their client or prospective client trying to understand the nature and requirements of the building that needs to be designed. The design of the building is completely fluid, as the architect considers many options in their imagination. The overall massing of the building, the general shape and form, are being considered during this early step. Even for a simple box-shaped building, the aspect ratio between the east-west and the north-south dimensions of the building can greatly impact energy consumption due to daylighting availability. The prevailing winds and building orientation can impact natural ventilation. The locations of high and low population density spaces can also impact energy use. Deciding the floor area per office workstation or the size of the auditorium will impact energy use. Does making a building two stories instead of one reduce energy impacts by reducing roof area or does the additional volume for stairs and elevators result in more energy use. Since certain types of spaces require more windows for occupants than others, the locations of those spaces will determine how much glazing each building orientation has impacting daylighting as well as heating and cooling energy. The project was an attempted first step toward creating a system tailored toward architects for this very early stage in the design process to help them understand the energy impacts of design options. The approach was not to be based on drawing the building, and instead, the main inputs would have been the size of each type of space in the building. This report describes information gathered during the development that might be of use to others developing similar software as well as some of the software that was developed during the project. Phase II funding to continue this work was not pursued due to intellectual property issues discovered during the development of the commercialization plan.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Target Optimization Study: Tolerance Sensitivity

A Work Package was initiated to investigate the potential for target optimization. The current design is made up of 82 disks 0.5 mm thick spaced 0.25 mm apart for helium coolant flow. This disk thickness and gap width are a result of continual increases is beam power and hence volumetric heating rate. Thickening the disks would mean higher disk temperatures, but this would be weighed against the prospect of fewer, thicker disks and wider coolant gap spaces, and the relaxed tolerances that would result. Fabrication of the target holder would be easier and less expensive, and target assembly would also be easier.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress and Technology Assessment of Melt-Cast Ceramic Waste Forms

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted research from FY2011 – FY2020 to develop ceramic waste forms to treat High-Level Waste (HLW) resulting from reprocessing of commercial Used Nuclear Fuel (UNF) as part of the Department of Energy (DOE) office of Nuclear Energy (NE) Fuel Cycle Technologies (FCT) research program. The objective of the research was to develop a reference ceramic waste form and process technology needed to immobilize the combined HLW raffinate stream, including undissolved solids and soluble technetium, and potentially the TRU waste stream resulting from reprocessing processes. This report compiles the relevant literature produced under, and pertinent to, the program objectives and provides a perspective on the technology development as well as prospects for future.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Vault: National Security Then and Now

The employees at Los Alamos National Laboratory have always been the key to our mission success, dating all the way back to our inception in 1939 as Project Y. This was the secret Los Alamos Lab of the Manhattan Project charged with designing and producing the world’s first atomic weapons to help end World War II. Back then, prospective Lab employees received letters that directed them to an office at 109 E. Palace in Santa Fe, New Mexico. There, they were greeted by Dorothy McKibbin, secretary to Lab Director J. Robert Oppenheimer. Before anyone headed up the hill to begin work, Dorothy typed up the new employee’s personal information on what quickly became known as the McKibbin Card. Lab employees also had official badges, the black and white photos of which have become iconic over time. Today’s staff at the National Security Research Center, the Lab’s classified library, are just as vital as the Lab’s first workforce was. Our highly trained experts partner with researchers to solve global challenges.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

White Paper: Background Information on ARPA-E's Reuse Program

This document provides supplemental information for ARPA-E’s exploratory research program, “Recycle Underutilized Solids to Energy” (REUSE). The goal is to provide additional technical information to prospective Applicants. Further information is available in a blog interview and webinar at https://arpa-e.energy.gov/?q=news-item/trash-treasure-reuse-creates-feedstock-plastic-waste. Award information, submission requirements, evaluation criteria, and other applicable information is provided in Funding Opportunity Announcements DE-FOA-0001953 and DE-FOA-0001954 (SBIR/STTR). REUSE-specific requirements are provided in Topic K of those FOAs, and is available at https://arpa-e-foa.energy.gov/Default.aspx?Search=0001953&SearchType=#FoaIde8647d89-1cac-4b58-8622-1b04de8958c4. Under the REUSE Topic, ARPA-E seeks to fund the development of technologies to convert high-energy materials currently going to landfills to a high-energy content liquid product capable of displacing energy imports used for fuel or chemical production. The high-energy materials include plastics (#1-7 polymers, rubber, and composites) and paper. As discussed below, we estimate 30-34 MM ton plastic, 2-6 MM ton rubber, 18 MM ton of paper, and up to 0.1 MM ton composites are potentially available annually for this purpose. These numbers may be conservative based on changes in the plastic and paper export markets. ARPA-E anticipates deployment of multiple low-cost, simple, flexible, small-scale (100-500 ton per day) regional facilities using modular plants. This scale is consistent with the sources for high-energy materials, which include ~300 Material Recovery Facilities and industrial waste sources. The assumption is that such facilities can be more economical than the paradigm of large-scale facilities making purity products, due to cost for transporting and aggregating waste and the high operating costs (OPEX) and capital cost (CAPEX) for product purification. This document gives a brief technical review for multiple potential process technologies. The review is not intended to be comprehensive or limiting, only to provide an introduction to potential Applicants.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

2018 LDRD Annual Report (Argonne National Laboratory)

Argonne National Laboratory’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program encourages the development of novel technical concepts, enhances the Laboratory’s research and development (R&D) capabilities, and enables pursuit of strategic laboratory goals. Argonne’s LDRD projects are proposal based and peer reviewed, supporting ideas that require advanced exploration so they can be sufficiently developed to pursue support through normal programmatic channels. Among the aims of the projects supported by the LDRD program are the establishment of engineering proofs of principle, assessment of design feasibility for prospective facilities, development of instrumentation or computational methods or systems, and discoveries in fundamental science and exploratory development. All LDRD projects have demonstrable ties to one or more of the science, energy, environment, and national security missions of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), and many are also relevant to the missions of other federal agencies that sponsor work at Argonne. A natural consequence of the more “applied” type projects is their concurrent relevance to industry. The LDRD program is managed in overarching portfolios, each containing multiple projects each fiscal year. The LDRD Prime portfolio is further divided into strategic focus areas aligned with Argonne’s strategic plan. The largest component of Argonne’s program is LDRD Prime, which emphasizes R&D explicitly aligned with Laboratory major initiatives in support of Argonne’s strategic plan. The choice of Focus Areas under the LDRD Prime component reflects the major initiatives; the state of development of relevant technical fields; the potential value of advancing those fields to DOE/NNSA and the nation; and the compatibility of the fields with existing facilities, capabilities, and staff expertise at Argonne. Focus Areas with projects that ended in FY18 are: Advanced Computing, Biological and Environmental Science Capability Development, Energy Manufacturing Science and Engineering, Hard X-ray Sciences, Materials and Chemistry, Securing Energy and Critical Resources, and The Universe as Our Laboratory (ULab).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of the Tool to Support Renewable Energy Auctions Processes (RE Data Explorer)

Renewable energy auctions are now a common competitive approach to procure low-cost renewable power around the world. Ensuring a successful auction process increasingly depends on the capabilities of auction designers and participants to identify actionable and defensible insights from large data sets (on renewable energy resources and complementary data) to both attract potential investors and address stakeholder concerns. The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer is a user-friendly geospatial analysis tool for analyzing renewable energy potential and informing decisions. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), RE Data Explorer performs visualization and analysis of renewable energy potential that can be customized for different scenarios. RE Data Explorer can support prospecting, integrated planning, policymaking, and other decision-making activities to accelerate renewable energy deployment. The broader RE Explorer website provides guidance and information to link the RE Data Explorer geospatial analysis tool to key decision areas. This document provides information on how the RE Data Explorer can be used to support renewable energy auction processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of the Tool to Support Renewable Energy Project Development (RE Data Explorer)

The Renewable Energy (RE) Data Explorer is a user-friendly, geospatial analysis tool for analyzing renewable energy potential and informing decisions. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), RE Data Explorer performs visualization and analysis of renewable energy potential that can be customized for different scenarios. RE Data Explorer can support prospecting, integrated planning, policymaking, and other decision-making activities to accelerate renewable energy deployment. This document provides information on how the RE Data Explorer can support private sector utility-scale renewable energy project development.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response groups. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Master’s project involves several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders across different areas. Identifying the proper tools to use is key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. This project explores some of the key tools used by the integrated team. The integrated project work will primarily take place over the course of 8 weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project will take place off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in other sections of this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used thus far in support of this project includes: 1) Market Surveys and Interviews, 2) Project Charter, 3) Feasibility Study, 4) Swim Lane Diagram, and 5) Knowledge Management Plan.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Systems Engineering Approach to Accident Response Planning.

This paper explores the Systems Engineering structure, strategies and tools for real world scenarios involving work with accident response planning. A systems engineering approach must be taken by the technical teams to prepare for a successful response and design the technical systems in support of the operations. The scope of this project is focused on laying out the foundation of the systems engineering approach taken to help the teams develop an accident response strategy and identify new engineering designs in support of these operations for the black box systems. This Masters project involved several interdisciplinary teams & stakeholders. Identifying the proper tools to use was key to addressing the big picture needs of the multiple stakeholders. The integrated project work primarily took place over the course of eight weeks via integrated team meetings. Other work in support of this project was conducted off-line as needed by the project lead. Details on the prospective timeline, milestones, key dates and work scope can be referenced in this paper. Key systems engineering methodologies and tools used in support of this project included but is not limited to: Market Surveys and Interviews Project Charter Feasibility Study Swim Lane Diagram Knowledge Management Plan. A full suite of tools and the details regarding the application of these tools and results of this study is provided in this report.

42 ENGINEERING↗