Results for “Optimal estimation” — Page 76

NASA NTRS2001

New measurements for hadrontherapy and space radiation: biology

The dual goals of optimizing clinical efficacy of hadrontherapy and determining radiation risk estimates for space research have intersected to a common focus for investigation of the biological effects of charged particles. This paper briefly highlights recent international progress at accelerator facilities engaged in both biological and clinical studies of the effects of particle beams, primarily protons, carbon and iron ions. Basic mechanisms of molecular, cellular and tissue responses continue under investigation for radiations with a range of ionization densities. Late normal tissue effects, including the risk of cancer in particular, are of importance for both research fields. International cooperation has enhanced the rate of progress as evidenced by recent publications. Specific areas of biomedical research related to the biological radiotoxicity of critical organs (especially the central nervous system), individual radiosensitivities to radiation carcinogenesis, and the analysis of effects in mixed radiation fields still require more research. Recommendations for addressing these issues are made.

Review↗

NASA NTRS2002

Ocean state estimation for climate studies

Climate variabilities, which are of interest to CLIVAR, involve a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Ocean state estimation (often referred to as ocean data assimilation), by optimally combining observations and models, becomes an important element of CLIVAR.

oceanography climate↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Langley's Approach to the Sandia's Structural Dynamics Challenge Problem

The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Salience Assignment for Multiple-Instance Regression

We present a Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithm for determining the salience of each item in each bag with respect to the bag's real-valued label. We use an alternating-projections constrained optimization approach to simultaneously learn a regression model and estimate all salience values. We evaluate this algorithm on a significant real-world problem, crop yield modeling, and demonstrate that it provides more extensive, intuitive, and stable salience models than Primary-Instance Regression, which selects a single relevant item from each bag.

regression↗

NASA NTRS2014

Discrete Element Method Simulation of a Boulder Extraction From an Asteroid

The force required to pull 7t and 40t polyhedral boulders from the surface of an asteroid is simulated using the discrete element method considering the effects of microgravity, regolith cohesion and boulder acceleration. The connection between particle surface energy and regolith cohesion is estimated by simulating a cohesion sample tearing test. An optimal constant acceleration is found where the peak net force from inertia and cohesion is a minimum. Peak pulling forces can be further reduced by using linear and quadratic acceleration functions with up to a 40% reduction in force for quadratic acceleration.

Kulchitsky, Anton K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Interactive MATLAB Program for Fitting Transfer Functions to Frequency Responses

A computer program called FRFit (Frequency Response Fitting) is described for fitting single-input single-output transfer function models to empirical frequency response data. The program is interactive in that the user specifies ``elementary factors'' (gain, delay, pure differentiators and integrators, and first- and second-order zeros and poles) by entering numerical values or moving sliders in a graphical user interface. A nonlinear optimization can then be performed to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of transfer function parameters and uncertainties to provide feedback on the modeling and refine estimates. Several examples are discussed, including the identification of aircraft pitch dynamics from simulation data and data reported in the literature, approximating Theodorsen's function of unsteady aerodynamics, and obtaining a reduced-order model of a computational fluid dynamics code describing the unsteady aerodynamics around an aeroelastic wing. The program has some usefulness as a teaching aid, and can be applied to model structure determination, reduced-order modeling, preliminary analysis, and simple system identification problems. The program was written in MATLAB and is planned for public release through the NASA Software Catalog.

System identification↗

NASA NTRS2020

Soil Evaporation Stress Determines Soil Moisture‐Evapotranspiration Coupling Strength in Land Surface Modeling

Model‐based estimates of soil moisture (SM)‐evapotranspiration (ET) coupling strength(ρ) vary widely and are prone to bias. Here we apply numerical modeling and remote sensing to identify the process‐level source of modeledρbias with the goal of improving the fidelity of current Earth system models. Results illustrate that modeledρis most strongly determined by soil evaporation (E) stress, and (generally positive)ρmodeling bias is attributable to the oversimplification of soil texture impacts on E stress. Based on new remotely sensed estimates ofρ, we demonstrate that removingρbias via a single optimized E stress parameter leads to improved ET accuracy and resolves a well‐known modeling bias in the partitioning of ET into E and T. As such, we highlight the importance of the stress function relating E and SM and its central role in regulating land‐atmosphere coupling processes impacting local climate.

Jianzhi Dong↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Attitude Reconstruction of Free-Flight CFD Generated Trajectories Using Non-Linear Pitch Damping Coefficient Curves

Attitude history reconstruction of Free-flight CFD generated trajectories with non-linear pitch damping coefficient curves is investigated. Free-flight CFD simulations of the capsule shape used for the Genesis sample return mission and the upcoming Dragonfly mission to Titan are conducted for 1-, 2-, and 3-degree-of-freedom cases. Two different data reduction methodologies are employed to derive a pitch damping curve as a function of instantaneous angle of attack. These curves are then used to reconstruct the attitude history of the body which is compared to the raw simulation results. While both data reduction methods produce pitch damping curves that can generally reconstruct the motion seen in the Free-flight simulations, it is found that optimization of the pitch damping curve using an inverse estimation process yields superior and more generalizable results. Further refinement of this technique could allow pitch damping curves derived using CFD to serve as a capability complementary to existing techniques for dynamic stability characterization.

entry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Attitude Reconstruction of Free-Flight CFD Generated Trajectories Using Non-Linear Pitch Damping Coefficient Curves

Attitude history reconstruction of Free-flight CFD generated trajectories with non-linear pitch damping coefficient curves is investigated. Free-flight CFD simulations of the capsule shape used for the Genesis sample return mission and the upcoming Dragonfly mission to Titan are conducted for 1-, 2-, and 3-degree-of-freedom cases. Two different data reduction methodologies are employed to derive a pitch damping curve as a function of instantaneous angle of attack. These curves are then used to reconstruct the attitude history of the body which is compared to the raw simulation results. While both data reduction methods produce pitch damping curves that can generally reconstruct the motion seen in the Free-flight simulations, it is found that optimization of the pitch damping curve using an inverse estimation process yields superior and more generalizable results. Further refinement of this technique could allow pitch damping curves derived using CFD to serve as a capability complementary to existing techniques for dynamic stability characterization.

entry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Space Superhighway: Enabling Active Debris Remediation Through an In-Space Logistics Infrastructure

The Space Superhighway is a future space infrastructure concept intended to support civil, commercial, and national security space interests by providing In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM) services across low Earth orbit (LEO), geosynchronous orbit (GEO), and cislunar space. This concept was originally developed by an interagency working group and commissioned by the Executive Office of the President. The Space Superhighway is comprised of three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. This study establishes methods which may be used to quantify the cost-savings from use of the Space Superhighway infrastructure and interrogates the effects of the use of this logistics network on a specific use case – removal of 26 pieces of large space debris within LEO. Through application of the established methods and assuming an emplaced Space Superhighway infrastructure with no cost implications related to deployment of infrastructure-related spacecraft, this study found that the cost to use an established Space Superhighway infrastructure to remove the targeted debris may be cheaper than removal of the targeted debris through traditional methods when the ΔV between a regional hub hosting propellant and the debris field is less than 1500 m/s. Through determining optimized locations of regional hubs within LEO, this study estimates that such a ΔV is within expectations for a LEO environment supported by a fully evolved Space Superhighway logistics infrastructure. This study provides a blueprint for future Space Superhighway value proposition studies for other use cases which, when combined, may provide the ultimate benefit and justification for the proliferation of an interconnected Space Superhighway.

Space Superhighway↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Space Superhighway: Enabling Active Debris Remediation Through an In-Space Logistics Infrastructure

The Space Superhighway is a future space infrastructure concept intended to support civil, commercial, and national security space interests by providing In-Space Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (ISAM) services across low Earth orbit (LEO), geosynchronous orbit (GEO), and cislunar space. This concept was originally developed by an interagency working group and commissioned by the Executive Office of the President. The Space Superhighway is comprised of three primary components: regional hubs, a sustainable transportation network, and Earth-to-orbit logistics. This study establishes methods which may be used to quantify the cost-savings from use of the Space Superhighway infrastructure and interrogates the effects of the use of this logistics network on a specific use case – removal of 26 pieces of large space debris within LEO. Through application of the established methods and assuming an emplaced Space Superhighway infrastructure with no cost implications related to deployment of infrastructure-related spacecraft, this study found that the cost to use an established Space Superhighway infrastructure to remove the targeted debris may be cheaper than removal of the targeted debris through traditional methods when the ΔV between a regional hub hosting propellant and the debris field is less than 1500 m/s. Through determining optimized locations of regional hubs within LEO, this study estimates that such a ΔV is within expectations for a LEO environment supported by a fully evolved Space Superhighway logistics infrastructure. This study provides a blueprint for future Space Superhighway value proposition studies for other use cases which, when combined, may provide the ultimate benefit and justification for the proliferation of an interconnected Space Superhighway.

Space Superhighway↗

DOE OSTI2020

Single Episode Policy Transfer in Reinforcement Learning

Transfer and adaptation to new unknown environmental dynamics is a key challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). An even greater challenge is performing near-optimally in a single attempt at test time, possibly without access to dense rewards, which is not addressed by current methods that require multiple experience rollouts for adaptation. To achieve single episode transfer in a family of environments with related dynamics, we propose a general algorithm that optimizes a probe and an inference model to rapidly estimate underlying latent variables of test dynamics, which are then immediately used as input to a universal control policy. This modular approach enables integration of state-of-the-art algorithms for variational inference or RL. Moreover, our approach does not require access to rewards at test time, allowing it to perform in settings where existing adaptive approaches cannot. In diverse experimental domains with a single episode test constraint, we report our method significantly outperforms existing adaptive approaches and shows favorable performance against baselines for robust transfer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis for a Potential Geothermal District Heating System in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Geothermal deep direct use (DDU) has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for a large-scale and variable heat demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and University of Oklahoma evaluated the feasibility of a geothermal district heating (GDH) and cooling system in two schools and 250 houses by utilizing existing oil and gas (O&G) wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating and cooling demand in the two schools and a typical single-family house were modeled using EnergyPlus building energy simulation software. The modeling results indicated that annual heating demand in two schools and 250 houses is approximately 2.61 GWhth, and cooling demand in the two schools is approximately 2.65 GWhth. In this scope, the techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted using the GEOPHIRES tool combined with the TOUGH2 reservoir simulator. The reservoir performance, including geothermal heat production capacity, was modeled by the reservoir simulator TOUGH2. Then, levelized cost of heat (LCOH) was calculated using GEOPHIRES version 3.0, which includes new features such as hourly heat load optimization and peak performance evaluation. Geothermal reservoir temperature was estimated as 90.5 degrees C at a total depth of 3.3 km by the regional average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km and validated by cation geothermometer calculations. Four production scenarios with two different well configurations and two different heat load profiles have been developed for well flow rates ranging between 3.1 kg/s and 9.3 kg/s. The LCOH of the district heating and cooling system was calculated between $95 and $210/MWh ($28/MMBtu to $62/MMBtu) for four different production scenarios. Typical natural gas prices for residential customers in Oklahoma have ranged from 9 to 19 $/MMBtu over the past decade, which indicates a challenge for deployment of such a GDH system.

deep direct-use↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis for a Potential Geothermal District Heating System in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Geothermal deep direct use (DDU) has potential across a wide swath of the United States but is underutilized due to challenging project economics associated with developing a deep geothermal resource for a large-scale and variable heat demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and University of Oklahoma evaluated the feasibility of a geothermal district heating (GDH) and cooling system in two schools and 250 houses by utilizing existing oil and gas (O&G) wells in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating and cooling demand in the two schools and a typical single-family house were modeled using EnergyPlus building energy simulation software. The modeling results indicated that annual heating demand in two schools and 250 houses is approximately 2.61 GWhth, and cooling demand in the two schools is approximately 2.65 GWhth. In this scope, the techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted using the GEOPHIRES tool combined with the TOUGH2 reservoir simulator. The reservoir performance, including geothermal heat production capacity, was modeled by the reservoir simulator TOUGH2. Then, levelized cost of heat (LCOH) was calculated using GEOPHIRES version 3.0, which includes new features such as hourly heat load optimization and peak performance evaluation. Geothermal reservoir temperature was estimated as 90.5 degrees C at a total depth of 3.3 km by the regional average temperature gradient of 22.8 degrees C/km and validated by cation geothermometer calculations. Four production scenarios with two different well configurations and two different heat load profiles have been developed for well flow rates ranging between 3.1 kg/s and 9.3 kg/s. The LCOH of the district heating and cooling system was calculated between $95 and $210/MWh ($28/MMBtu to $62/MMBtu) for four different production scenarios. Typical natural gas prices for residential customers in Oklahoma have ranged from 9 to 19 $/MMBtu over the past decade, which indicates a challenge for deployment of such a GDH system.

deep direct-use↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1977

The mass of Phobos

Radio tracking data associated with the February 1977 encounters between the Martian satellite Phobos and the Viking Orbiter I spacecraft have been analyzed to determine the gravitational constant of Phobos. A linear error analysis was conducted to determine the selection of data and the parameter solution set which would yield the best estimate of the gravitational constant. This error analysis indicated that the optimal data set was a data arc beginning just prior to the closest encounter and spanning three consecutive spacecraft orbits; data near periapsis were deleted. The most feasible parameter solution set consisted of the Phobos gravitational constant and the spacecraft initial conditions. The result of the data analysis was an estimate of (7.3 plus or minus 0.7) x 10 to the -4th cu km/sq sec for the gravitational constant of Phobos.

Tolson, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive pruning-based optimization of parameterized quantum circuits

Abstract Variational hybrid quantum–classical algorithms are powerful tools to maximize the use of noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices. While past studies have developed powerful and expressive ansatze, their near-term applications have been limited by the difficulty of optimizing in the vast parameter space. In this work, we propose a heuristic optimization strategy for such ansatze used in variational quantum algorithms, which we call ‘parameter-efficient circuit training (PECT)’. Instead of optimizing all of the ansatz parameters at once, PECT launches a sequence of variational algorithms, in which each iteration of the algorithm activates and optimizes a subset of the total parameter set. To update the parameter subset between iterations, we adapt the Dynamic Sparse Reparameterization scheme which was originally proposed for training deep convolutional neural networks. We demonstrate PECT for the Variational Quantum Eigensolver, in which we benchmark unitary coupled-cluster ansatze including UCCSD and k -UpCCGSD, as well as the Low-Depth Circuit Ansatz (LDCA), to estimate ground state energies of molecular systems. We additionally use a layerwise variant of PECT to optimize a hardware-efficient circuit for the Sycamore processor to estimate the ground state energy densities of the one-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model. From our numerical data, we find that PECT can enable optimizations of certain ansatze that were previously difficult to converge and more generally can improve the performance of variational algorithms by reducing the optimization runtime and/or the depth of circuits that encode the solution candidate(s).

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Near-optimal ground state preparation

Preparing the ground state of a given Hamiltonian and estimating its ground energy are important but computationally hard tasks. However, given some additional information, these problems can be solved efficiently on a quantum computer. We assume that an initial state with non-trivial overlap with the ground state can be efficiently prepared, and the spectral gap between the ground energy and the first excited energy is bounded from below. With these assumptions we design an algorithm that prepares the ground state when an upper bound of the ground energy is known, whose runtime has a logarithmic dependence on the inverse error. When such an upper bound is not known, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to estimate the ground energy, where the dependence of the number of queries to the initial state on the desired precision is exponentially improved compared to the current state-of-the-art algorithm proposed in [Ge et al. 2019]. These two algorithms can then be combined to prepare a ground state without knowing an upper bound of the ground energy. We also prove that our algorithms reach the complexity lower bounds by applying it to the unstructured search problem and the quantum approximate counting problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗