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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mechanical Behavior of Microelectromechanical Microshutters

A custom micro-mechanical test system was constructed using off-the-shelf components to characterize the mechanical properties of microshutters. Microshutters are rectangular microelectromechanical apertures which open and close about a narrow torsion bar hinge. Displacement measurements were verified using both capacitive and digital image correlation techniques. Repeatable experiments on Si3N4 cantilever beams verified that the test system operates consistently. Using beam theory, the modulus of elasticity of the low stress Si3N4 was approximately 150 GPa, though significant uncertainty exists for this measurement due primarily to imprecise knowledge of the cantilever thickness. Tests conducted on microshutter arrays concluded that reducing the Si3N4 thickness from 250 nm to 500 nm reduces the torsional stiffness by a factor of approximately four. This is in good agreement with analytical and finite element models of the microshutters.

silicon nitride↗

Uncertainty Quantification in GADRAS Inverse Modeling

The Gamma Detector Response and Analysis Software (GADRAS) package includes an inverse modeling tool that is helpful in identifying characteristics of unknown radioactive materials. Traditionally, uncertainties in this analysis were derived solely from measurement data quality and the fit of synthetic spectra. This paper aims to rigorously quantify additional sources of uncertainty, focusing on uncertainties arising from measurements being analyzed, Detector Response Function (DRF) characterization, and DRF extrapolation. Applying these findings to the BeRPBall benchmark data set, we demonstrated the impact of these uncertainties on plutonium and polyethylene estimates. The results underscore the importance of incorporating diverse uncertainty sources to enhance the accuracy and reliability of GADRAS’s inverse modeling capabilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

On the estimation algorithm for adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines

The performance seeking control (PSC) algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The PSC algorithm uses a nominal propulsion system model and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters (EDPs) characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated EDPs may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a direct impact on the PSC scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. In this paper, the effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the PSC algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and EDPs stems from the analysis; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated EDPs represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.

Espana, Martin D.↗

Measuring unsteady pressure on rotating compressor blades

Miniature semiconductor strain gage pressure transducers mounted in several arrangements were studied. Both surface mountings and recessed flush mountings were tested. Test parameters included mounting arrangement, blade material, temperature, local strain in the acceleration normal to the transducer diaphragm, centripetal acceleration, and pressure. Test results show no failures of transducers or mountings and indicate an uncertainty of unsteady pressure measurement of approximately + or - 6 percent + 0.1 kPa for a typical application. Two configurations were used on a rotating fan flutter program. Examples of transducer data and correction factors are presented.

Englund, D. R.↗

Design, calibration and error analysis of instrumentation for heat transfer measurements in internal combustion engines

The paper reports the methodology and uncertainty analyses of instrumentation for heat transfer measurements in internal combustion engines. Results are presented for determining the local wall heat flux in an internal combustion engine (using a surface thermocouple-type heat flux gage) and the apparent flame-temperature and soot volume fraction path length product in a diesel engine (using two-color pyrometry). It is shown that a surface thermocouple heat transfer gage suitably constructed and calibrated will have an accuracy of 5 to 10 percent. It is also shown that, when applying two-color pyrometry to measure the apparent flame temperature and soot volume fraction-path length, it is important to choose at least one of the two wavelengths to lie in the range of 1.3 to 2.3 micrometers. Carefully calibrated two-color pyrometer can ensure that random errors in the apparent flame temperature and in the soot volume fraction path length will remain small (within about 1 percent and 10-percent, respectively).

Ferguson, C. R.↗

Biomass Burning Emissions from Fire Remote Sensing

Knowledge of the emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) atmospheric constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the modeling and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. Biomass burning emissions are complex and difficult to quantify. However, satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP), which has a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. In this presentation, we will show how the satellite measurement of FRP is facilitating the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and smoke emission rates, and the implications of this unique capability for improving our understanding of smoke impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. We will also discuss some of the challenges and uncertainties associated with satellite measurement of FRP and how they are being addressed.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Adjusting neutrino interaction models and evaluating uncertainties using NOvA near detector data

The two-detector design of the NOvA neutrino oscillation experiment, in which two functionally identical detectors are exposed to an intense neutrino beam, aids in canceling leading order effects of cross-section uncertainties. However, limited knowledge of neutrino interaction cross sections still gives rise to some of the largest systematic uncertainties in current oscillation measurements. We show contemporary models of neutrino interactions to be discrepant with data from NOvA, consistent with discrepancies seen in other experiments. Adjustments to neutrino interaction models in GENIE are presented, creating an effective model that improves agreement with our data. We also describe systematic uncertainties on these models, including uncertainties on multi-nucleon interactions from a newly developed procedure using NOvA near detector data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Geometry Optimization for a Quadrupole Resonator at Jefferson Lab

The quadrupole resonator (QPR) is a sample characterization tool to measure the RF properties of superconducting materials using the calorime-try method at different temperatures, magnetic fields, and frequencies. Such resonators are cur-rently operating at CERN and HZB but suffer from Lorentz force detuning and modes overlap-ping, resulting in higher uncertainties in surface resistance measurement. Using the two CERN's QPR model iterations, the geometry was opti-mized via electromagnetic and mechanical simu-lations to eliminate these issues. The new QPR version was modelled for an increasing range of magnetic fields. The magnetic field is concentrat-ed at the center of the sample to reduce the un-certainty in surface resistance measurements sig-nificantly. This paper discusses the QPR geome-try optimization for the new version of QPR, which is now progressing toward fabrication.

Bira, S.↗

On the estimation algorithm used in adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines

The performance seeking control algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The performance seeking control algorithm uses a nominal model of the propulsion system and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated engine deviation parameters may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a necessary impact on the overall performance seeking control scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. The effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the performance seeking control algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and engine deviation parameters stems from an observability study; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated engine deviation parameters represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.

Espana, Martin D.↗

Repeatability Modeling for Wind-Tunnel Measurements: Results for Three Langley Facilities

Data from extensive check standard tests of seven measurement processes in three NASA Langley Research Center wind tunnels are statistically analyzed to test a simple model previously presented in 2000 for characterizing short-term, within-test and across-test repeatability. The analysis is intended to support process improvement and development of uncertainty models for the measurements. The analysis suggests that the repeatability can be estimated adequately as a function of only the test section dynamic pressure over a two-orders- of-magnitude dynamic pressure range. As expected for low instrument loading, short-term coefficient repeatability is determined by the resolution of the instrument alone (air off). However, as previously pointed out, for the highest dynamic pressure range the coefficient repeatability appears to be independent of dynamic pressure, thus presenting a lower floor for the standard deviation for all three time frames. The simple repeatability model is shown to be adequate for all of the cases presented and for all three time frames.

Hemsch, Michael J.↗

Measuring the Cryogenic Optical Alignment Between the Telescope Element and the Instruments Module of the James Webb Space Telescope

The alignment between the Aft Optical Subsystem (AOS) and the Integrated Science Instruments Module (ISIM) is non-adjustable in orbit, so the alignment must be carefully verified in a cryogenic vacuum environment prior to launch. Optical point source locations calibrated by optical metrology instruments are imaged through the AOS onto the Science Instruments to determine focal, lateral, and clock angle alignment. The pupil image of the AOS is overlaid onto the pupil image of the NIRCam to determine the tip and tilt alignment. In addition, an image from fiducial lights at the Primary Mirror checks the pupil alignment between the telescope entrance pupil, the telescope pupil mask, and the NIRCam aperture stop. The image positions are combined to determine the relative alignment between the Optical Telescope Element (OTE) and the ISIM in all six degrees of freedom with corresponding alignment uncertainties. Uncertainties in the position of focused images of the test sources and images from the pupils are derived from sensitivities of an optical model of the system and the Science Instrument sensing capability. Additional uncertainty in the pupil alignment measurement is due to uncertainty in the analytical removal of gravity effects that simulate the on-orbit alignment environment.

Whitman, Tony↗

The Rovibrational Intensities of the (40 deg 1) and (00 deg 0) Pentad Absorption Bands of 12C16O2 Between 7284 and 7921 cm(exp-1)

Carbon dioxide is the major constituent of the atmospheres of both Mars and Venus. Correct interpretations of spectra of these atmospheres require accurate knowledge of a substantial number of absorption bands of this gas. This is especially true for Venus; many weak CO2 bands that are insignificant in the earth's atmosphere are prominent absorbers in Venus' hot, dense lower atmosphere. Yet, recent near-infrared spectra of Venus' nightside have discovered emission windows, which occur between CO2 absorption bands, at 4040-4550 cm(exp-1), 5700-5900 cm(exp-1), and several smaller ones between 7500 and 9400 cm(exp-1). This radiation is due to thermal emission from Venus' lower atmosphere, diminished by scattering and absorption within the sulfuric acid clouds on its way to space. Simulations of these data with radiative transfer models can provide improved information on the abundances of a number of constituents of the lower atmosphere (e.g. H2O, CO, HDO, HCl, HF, and OCS) and the optical properties of the clouds, whose spatial variation modulates the brightness of the emissions. However, the accuracy of these retrievals has been limited by insufficient knowledge of the opacity of some of the gas species, including CO2, at the large pathlengths and high temperatures and pressures that exist on Venus. In particular, modeling the emission spectrum did not produce a good fit for the emission window centered at 7830 cm(exp-1). In an ongoing effort to assist analyses of these Venus spectra, we have been making laboratory intensity measurements of several weak bands of CO2 which are significant absorbers in these Venus emission windows. The CO2 bands that are prominent in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region belong to the vibrational sequence 4v1+v3 and associated hot bands. Only 2 of the 5 bands of this sequence have been previously measured. Modeling Venus' emission spectrum in the 7830 cm(exp-1) region had to rely on calculated intensity values for the weak ground state band at 7921 cm-1 and the associated hot bands. Since the calculated intensities of ground state bands are known to have significant uncertainties, we decided to measure this (40 deg 1)I (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band with the Ames 25 meter multiple reflection absorption cell and Fourier transform spectrometer. We also measured the (40 deg 1) (sub IV) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) band at 7460 cm(exp-1), which also had not been previously measured. These measurements are reported in this article, and we also give our reanalysis of the prior measurements of the (40 deg 1) (sub III) (left arrow) (00 deg 0) bands. These measurements provide the basis for improving calculated intensities for related hot bands as well as simulations of Venus' spectrum.

Giver, L. P.↗

Uncertainty Analysis for Oil-Film Interferometry Skin-Friction Measurement Techniques

Over the past 20 years, the use of oil-film interferometry to measure the skin friction coefficient (C(sub f) = tau/q where tau is the surface shear stress and q is the dynamic pressure) has increased. Different forms of this oil-film technique with various levels of accuracy and ease of use have been successfully applied in a wide range of flows. The method's popularity is growing due to its relative ease of implementation and minimal intrusiveness as well as an increased demand for C(sub f) measurements. Nonetheless, the accuracy of these methods has not been rigorously addressed to date. Most researchers have simply shown that the skin-friction measurements made using these techniques compare favorably with other measurements and theory, most of which are only accurate to within 5-20%. The use of skin-friction data in the design of commercial aircraft, whose drag at cruise is 50% skin-friction drag, and in the validation of computational fluid dynamics programs warrants better uncertainty estimates. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Naughton, Jonathan W.↗

Assessment of VIIRS on-orbit polarization sensitivity and its impact on CLARREO pathfinder inter-calibration

The primary objective of the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission is to demonstrate essential measurement technologies to enable highly accurate decadal change observations traceable on-orbit to SI standards. Another important objective of the CPF is to demonstrate inter-calibration with the VIIRS sensor and to show that such high-accuracy reference inter-calibration is achievable. To satisfy this requirement, it is important to understand and quantify uncertainties in VIIRS sensor measurements. Based on prelaunch test results, the reflective solar bands of both SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS have exhibited polarization sensitivities in the shortest wavelength bands, with an unexpectedly larger sensitivity observed for NOAA-20 VIIRS, particularly in bands M1 to M4. In this study, we use VIIRS Level-1B reflectance data collected over the Pseudo-Invariant Calibration Sites over North African desert region to examine the polarization associated uncertainty for these four bands. Impact due to BRDF on the reflectance data is considered by comparing baseline results obtained from the same viewing and solar zenith angles under relatively low polarization sensitivity. Impact due to detector relative difference in polarization sensitivity is examined by normalizing reflectances by the value of the middle detector. Results of this study provide useful information on VIIRS uncertainty contribution due to polarization when conducting CPF and VIIRS inter-calibration.

VIIRS↗

Nonintrusive nitric oxide density measurements in the effluent of core-heated airstreams

Transmittance measurements using an NO resonance source are reported for an expanded arc-heated flow. The data are used to deduce NO concentrations, which range from 0.17 to 1.9 percent by volume for facility operating conditions with nozzle exit static temperatures from 87 to 320 K. Absorption measurements in the (0,1) band, not attributable to a flow at thermal equilibrium, are used to calculate nonequilibrium vibrational temperatures ranging from 533 to 919 K. The data are in good agreement with the vibrational-temperature predictions of a one-dimensional relaxation code, within the uncertainties of calculations and measured transmittance.

Howard, R. P.↗

Error analysis of bent ray radio occultation measurments

There are two types of experimental measurement errors of the Doppler data associated with the radio occultation, random and systematic. Random errors are due to thermal noise in the transmission channel, and the phase lock loop, and quantization error in the digital circuitry. These are called noise type errors. The systematic errors are due to geometric uncertainty and equipment phase instability. Considered is the amount of uncertainty, due to random measurement errors, in the refractivity profiles reconstructed by this type of indirect sensing experiment. A class of refractivity profiles is defined which approximately fit the set of measured data. Bounds are placed on the extent of this class of solution profiles. To accomplish this, the sensivity of the reconstructed refractivity profiles to errors in the measured quantity and the statistics of the errors in the measurement are examined.

Saintgermain, R. L.↗