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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Improved Forecasting Can Increase the Bulk Power System Value of Price-Responsive Electric Vehicle Managed Charging

Personal light-duty vehicle (LDV) electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) can reduce power system costs by better aligning electric vehicle (EV) charging with locations and times of low energy cost or infrastructure use. The need to coordinate charging demand across thousands to millions of vehicles while preserving mobility service is a barrier to realizing the value of EVMC. Price-responsive dispatch mechanisms like time-of-use rates (TOU) and hourly real-time prices (RTP) are attractive compared to direct load control (DLC) because they only require one-way communications and local controls. However, increasing participation in price responsive mechanisms can induce costly-to-serve spikes in load and otherwise increase, rather than decrease, production costs. We quantify the ability of improved EVMC forecasting to sustain savings from price responsive mechanisms beyond the limit of 14% of LDVs actively participating observed in previous work. Perfect forecasting of price-responsive EV load makes TOU and RTP value-competitive with a low-error DLC formulation with up to 27% (within-week flexibility) to 45% or more (within-session flexibility) of LDVs participating in EVMC in an envisioned New England power system with 84% clean energy. Additional costs of implementing DLC should be no more than tens of dollars per vehicle-year if DLC is to be value-competitive with accurately forecast price-responsive EVMC for double-digit percentage shares of LDVs participating.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Smart Energy Communities to Increase Renewable Energy Hosting Capacity

Abnormal climates due to global warming have emerged as a big concern in the global community. To mitigate climate change and achieve sustainability, distributed energy resources (DERs), including solar and wind, have been recently deployed in power systems. As the penetration level of DERs has increased, however, it caused a multitude of issues in the power systems, such as voltage fluctuation in the distribution network limiting renewable hosting capacity. On the other hand, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is rapidly growing to facilitate the transition to a carbon-neutral community, illuminating the potential of EVs as a flexible grid asset to mitigate some of the issues and improve grid operation, if properly exploited. To explore the potential of EVs, this paper proposes an EV scheduling strategy. By using an optimal EV charging scheduling proposed, distribution system operators (DSOs) can minimize their operating costs and stably operate the system with a high level of DERs. To validate the method, a modified IEEE 33-bus system with DERs is developed. The case study shows the proposed scheduling strategizes EV charging to reduce the cost of PV curtailment. In the study, the method outperforms the renewable-only case with curtailment by 4.97% in DSO cost. It also demonstrates its potential to increase the renewable hosting capacity by harmonizing EV charging with renewables.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decontamination of Mixed Paper and Plastic Municipal Solid Waste Increases Low and High Temperature Conversion Yields

With the implementation of China’s Green Fence Policy and the following National Sword Policy, there is a need to divert previously accepted waste materials away from the landfill. Mixed plastic and paper wastes that are too contaminated to be economically recycled can be used for conversion into fuels and products. The effect of common contaminants present in waste streams must be determined to make municipal solid waste (MSW) a viable alternative to agricultural feedstocks for conversion. In this study, MSW was sourced from a dual stream materials recovery facility (MRF) in Emmet County, Michigan and characterized via mass balance. The most common contaminants in mixed paper and plastic were quantified and targeted for decontamination when mixed paper was explored for low temperature conversion pathways and plastics for high temperature conversion pathways. Ink, stickies, and plastic contamination were sorted out of the mixed paper stream and did not have an impact on sugar yields during enzymatic hydrolysis (EH). Although no improvement in yield was found, it was noted that copy paper within the mixed paper stream had an elevated pH and higher concentration of fermentation inhibitors, suggesting that intrinsic properties of some paper types may not be ideal for EH and fermentation conversion. Dilute alkaline pretreatment and mechanical refining of mixed paper increased the EH yield of mixed paper, suggesting this previously established process could be used as a decontamination method. “Dirt” and particulates were washed from mixed plastic using either an aqueous detergent or a non-aqueous chemical washing method. Liquid oil yields were increased during microwave assisted fast pyrolysis. All decontamination techniques met the cost target of less than $30/dry ton with plastic decontamination ranging from $18.16 to $24.81/dry ton. Because dilute alkaline pre-treatment and mechanical refining is considered part of the conversion process, the decontamination cost during feedstock preprocessing was considered $0/dry ton.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Liana Abundance and Associated Reductions in Tree Growth in Secondary Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest

Lianas are thought to be increasing and altering tree growth and ecosystem productivity in tropical forests, but less research has focused on secondary or seasonally dry tropical forest. We report on an 11-year study of tree growth and liana presence from Guanacaste, Costa Rica, where we measured the diameter growth and liana presence on more than 1,700 trees in regenerating forest of different ages. We find that the proportion of trees without lianas is decreasing and the number of trees with lianas occupying more than 10% of tree’s crowns is increasing. We also find that lianas are affecting the diameter growth of trees. The 11-year average relative growth rates of trees with lianas in more than 10% of the tree’s crown are lower than the relative growth of trees with no lianas or lianas in less than 10% of their crown. Year-to-year, tree relative growth rate is related to annual precipitation and tree diameter. However, trees that were heavily infested with lianas (i.e., with lianas in more than 50% of their crowns) had lower relative growth and a weaker precipitation-growth relationship. This work underscores the value of long-term longitudinal data in secondary forest and adds critical data on dry forest liana abundance change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Deletion of TGF-β1 Increases Bacterial Clearance by Cytotoxic T Cells in a Tuberculosis Granuloma Model

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is the pathogenic bacterium that causes tuberculosis (TB), one of the most lethal infectious diseases in the world. The only vaccine against TB is minimally protective, and multi-drug resistant TB necessitates new therapeutics to treat infection. Developing new therapies requires a better understanding of the complex host immune response to infection, including dissecting the processes leading to formation of granulomas, the dense cellular lesions associated with TB. In this work, we pair experimental and computational modeling studies to explore cytokine regulation in the context of TB. We use our next-generation hybrid multi-scale model of granuloma formation ( GranSim ) to capture molecular, cellular, and tissue scale dynamics of granuloma formation. We identify TGF-β1 as a major inhibitor of cytotoxic T-cell effector function in granulomas. Deletion of TGF-β1 from the system results in improved bacterial clearance and lesion sterilization. We also identify a novel dichotomous regulation of cytotoxic T cells and macrophages by TGF-β1 and IL-10, respectively. These findings suggest that increasing cytotoxic T-cell effector functions may increase bacterial clearance in granulomas and highlight potential new therapeutic targets for treating TB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diel Transcriptional Oscillations of a Plastid Antiporter Reflect Increased Resilience of Thalassiosira pseudonana in Elevated CO 2

Acidification of the ocean due to high atmospheric CO 2 levels may increase the resilience of diatoms causing dramatic shifts in abiotic and biotic cycles with lasting implications on marine ecosystems. Here, we report a potential bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of a coastal and centric model diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana under elevated CO 2 . Specifically, we have discovered, through EGFP-tagging, a plastid membrane localized putative Na + (K + )/H + antiporter that is significantly upregulated at >800 ppm CO 2 , with a potentially important role in maintaining pH homeostasis. Notably, transcript abundance of this antiporter gene was relatively low and constant over the diel cycle under contemporary CO 2 conditions. In future acidified oceanic conditions, dramatic oscillation with >10-fold change between nighttime (high) and daytime (low) transcript abundances of the antiporter was associated with increased resilience of T. pseudonana. By analyzing metatranscriptomic data from the Tara Oceans project, we demonstrate that phylogenetically diverse diatoms express homologs of this antiporter across the globe. We propose that the differential between night- and daytime transcript levels of the antiporter could serve as a bioindicator of a shift in the resilience of diatoms in response to high CO 2 conditions in marine environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Response of Biological Soil Crust Diazotrophs to Season, Altered Summer Precipitation, and Year-Round Increased Temperature in an Arid Grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33 Tg y -1 ), are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring), as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3 × 10 6 to 1 × 108 g -1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis, and Nostoc commune comprised >98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low) and spring (high). A year-round increase of soil temperature (2–3°C) had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5 years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6-fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small volume precipitation events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dramatic Increases of Soil Microbial Functional Gene Diversity at the Treeline Ecotone of Changbai Mountain

The elevational and latitudinal diversity patterns of microbial taxa have attracted great attention in the past decade. Recently, the distribution of functional attributes has been in the spotlight. Here, we report a study profiling soil microbial communities along an elevation gradient (500-2200 m) on Changbai Mountain. Using a comprehensive functional gene microarray (GeoChip 5.0), we found that microbial functional gene richness exhibited a dramatic increase at the treeline ecotone, but the bacterial taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity based on 16S rRNA gene sequencing did not exhibit such a similar trend. However, the β-diversity (compositional dissimilarity among sites) pattern for both bacterial taxa and functional genes was similar, showing significant elevational distance-decay patterns which presented increased dissimilarity with elevation. The bacterial taxonomic diversity/structure was strongly influenced by soil pH, while the functional gene diversity/structure was significantly correlated with soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC). This finding highlights that soil DOC may be a good predictor in determining the elevational distribution of microbial functional genes. The finding of significant shifts in functional gene diversity at the treeline ecotone could also provide valuable information for predicting the responses of microbial functions to climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Ammonia Oxidation by the Arctic Terrestrial Thaumarchaeote Candidatus Nitrosocosmicus arcticus Is Stimulated by Increasing Temperatures

Climate change is causing arctic regions to warm disproportionally faster than those at lower latitudes, leading to alterations in carbon and nitrogen cycling, and potentially higher greenhouse gas emissions. It is thus increasingly important to better characterize the microorganisms driving arctic biogeochemical processes and their potential responses to changing conditions. Here, we describe a novel thaumarchaeon enriched from an arctic soil, Candidatus Nitrosocosmicus arcticus strain Kfb, which has been maintained for seven years in stable laboratory enrichment cultures as an aerobic ammonia oxidizer, with ammonium or urea as substrates. Genomic analyses show that this organism harbors all genes involved in ammonia oxidation and in carbon fixation via the 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycle, characteristic of all AOA, as well as the capability for urea utilization and potentially also for heterotrophic metabolism, similar to other AOA. Ca. N. arcticus oxidizes ammonia optimally between 20 and 28°C, well above average temperatures in its native high arctic environment (-13-4°C). Ammonia oxidation rates were nevertheless much lower than those of most cultivated mesophilic AOA (20-45°C). Intriguingly, we repeatedly observed apparent faster growth rates (based on marker gene counts) at lower temperatures (4-8°C) but without detectable nitrite production. Together with potential metabolisms predicted from its genome content, these observations indicate that Ca. N. arcticus is not a strict chemolithotrophic ammonia oxidizer and add to cumulating evidence for a greater metabolic and physiological versatility of AOA. The physiology of Ca. N. arcticus suggests that increasing temperatures might drastically affect nitrification in arctic soils by stimulating archaeal ammonia oxidation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing Al-Pair Abundance in SSZ-13 Zeolite via Zeolite Synthesis in the Presence of Alkaline Earth Metal Hydroxide Produces Hydrothermally Stable Co-, Cu- and Pd-SSZ-13 Materials

Replacing alkaline for alkaline-earth metal hydroxide in the synthesis gel during the synthesis of siliceous SSZ-13 zeolite (Si/Al~10) yields SSZ-13 with novel, advantageous properties. Its NH 4 -form ion-exchanges higher amount of isolated divalent M(II) ions than the conventional one: this is the consequence of an increased number of Al pairs in the structure induced by the +2 charge of Sr(II) cations in the synthesis gel that force two charge-compensating AlO 4 – motives to reside closer together. We characterize the +2 state of Co(II) ions in these materials with infra-red spectroscopy and X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements and show their utility for NOx pollutant adsorption from ambient air: the ones derived from SSZ-13 with higher Al pair content contain more isolated cobalt(II) and, thus, perform better as ambient-air NOx adsorbers. Notably, Co(II)/SSZ-13 with an increased number of Al pairs is significantly more hydrothermally stable than its NaOH-derived analogue. Loading Pd(II) into Co-SSZ-13(Sr) produces an active NOx adsorber (PNA) material that can be used for NOx adsorption from simulated diesel engine exhaust. The critical issue for these applications is hydrothermal stability of Pd-zeolites. Pd/SSZ-13 synthesized in the presence of Sr(OH) 2 does not lose its PNA capacity after extremely harsh aging at 850 and 900 °C (10 h in 10% H 2 O/air flow) and loses only ~55% capacity after hydrothermal aging at 930 °C. This can be extended to other divalent metals for catalytic applications, such as copper: we show that Cu/SSZ-13 catalyst can survive hydrothermal aging at 920 °C without losing its catalytic properties, metal dispersion and crystalline structure. Thus, we provide a new, simple, and scalable strategy for making remarkably (hydro)thermally stable metal-zeolite materials/catalysts with a number of useful applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing Extractable Work in Small Qubit Landscapes

An interesting class of physical systems, including those associated with life, demonstrates the ability to hold thermalization at bay and perpetuate states of high free-energy compared to a local environment. In this work we study quantum systems with no external sources or sinks for energy, heat, work, or entropy that allow for high free-energy subsystems to form and persist. We initialize systems of qubits in mixed, uncorrelated states and evolve them subject to a conservation law. We find that four qubits make up the minimal system for which these restricted dynamics and initial conditions allow an increase in extractable work for a subsystem. On landscapes of eight co-evolving qubits, interacting in randomly selected subsystems at each step, we demonstrate that restricted connectivity and an inhomogeneous distribution of initial temperatures both lead to landscapes with longer intervals of increasing extractable work for individual qubits. We demonstrate the role of correlations that develop on the landscape in enabling a positive change in extractable work.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Environmental and Socioeconomic Factors on Increased Early Childhood Blood Lead Levels: A Case Study in Chicago

This study analyzes the prevalence of elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) in children across Chicagoland zip codes from 2019 to 2021, linking them to socioeconomic, environmental, and racial factors. Wilcoxon tests and generalized additive model (GAM) regressions identified economic hardship, reflected in per capita income and unemployment rates, as a significant contributor to increased lead poisoning (LP) rates. Additionally, LP rates correlate with the average age of buildings, particularly post the 1978 lead paint ban, illustrating policy impacts on health outcomes. The study further explores the novel area of land surface temperature (LST) effects on LP, finding that higher nighttime LST, indicative of urban heat island effects, correlates with increased LP. This finding gains additional significance in the context of anthropogenic climate change. When these factors are combined with the ongoing expansion of urban territories, a significant risk exists of escalating LP rates on a global scale. Racial disparity analysis revealed that Black and Hispanic/Latino populations face higher LP rates, primarily due to unemployment and older housing. The study underscores the necessity for targeted public health strategies to address these disparities, emphasizing the need for interventions that cater to the unique challenges of these at-risk communities.

Lee, Jangho (ORCID:0000000289421092)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emiliania huxleyi —Bacteria Interactions under Increasing CO 2 Concentrations

The interactions established between marine microbes, namely phytoplankton–bacteria, are key to the balance of organic matter export to depth and recycling in the surface ocean. Still, their role in the response of phytoplankton to rising CO 2 concentrations is poorly understood. Here, we show that the response of the cosmopolitan Emiliania huxleyi (E. huxleyi) to increasing CO 2 is affected by the coexistence with bacteria. Specifically, decreased growth rate of E. huxleyi at enhanced CO 2 concentrations was amplified in the bloom phase (potentially also related to nutrient concentrations) and with the coexistence with Idiomarina abyssalis (I. abyssalis) and Brachybacterium sp. In addition, enhanced CO 2 concentrations also affected E. huxleyi’s cellular content estimates, increasing organic and decreasing inorganic carbon, in the presence of I. abyssalis, but not Brachybacterium sp. At the same time, the bacterial isolates only survived in coexistence with E. huxleyi, but exclusively I. abyssalis at present CO 2 concentrations. Bacterial species or group-specific responses to the projected CO 2 rise, together with the concomitant effect on E. huxleyi, might impact the balance between the microbial loop and the export of organic matter, with consequences for atmospheric carbon dioxide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Increasing Phosphatidylinositol (4,5)-Bisphosphate Biosynthesis Affects Basal Signaling and Chloroplast Metabolism in Arabidopsis thaliana

One challenge in studying the second messenger inositol(1,4,5)-trisphosphate (InsP 3 ) is that it is present in very low amounts and increases only transiently in response to stimuli. To identify events downstream of InsP 3 , we generated transgenic plants constitutively expressing the high specific activity, human phosphatidylinositol 4-phosphate 5-kinase Iα (HsPIPKIα). PIP5K is the enzyme that synthesizes phosphatidylinositol (4,5)-bisphosphate (PtdIns(4,5)P2); this reaction is flux limiting in InsP 3 biosynthesis in plants. Plasma membranes from transgenic Arabidopsis expressing HsPIPKIα had 2–3 fold higher PIP5K specific activity, and basal InsP 3 levels in seedlings and leaves were >2-fold higher than wild type. Although there was no significant difference in photosynthetic electron transport, HsPIPKIα plants had significantly higher starch (2–4 fold) and 20% higher anthocyanin compared to controls. Starch content was higher both during the day and at the end of dark period. In addition, transcripts of genes involved in starch metabolism such as SEX1 (glucan water dikinase) and SEX4 (phosphoglucan phosphatase), DBE (debranching enzyme), MEX1 (maltose transporter), APL3 (ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase) and glucose-6-phosphate transporter (Glc6PT) were up-regulated in the HsPIPKIα plants. Our results reveal that increasing the phosphoinositide (PI) pathway affects chloroplast carbon metabolism and suggest that InsP 3 is one component of an inter-organelle signaling network regulating chloroplast metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multiple, Compounding Disturbances in a Forest Ecosystem: Fire Increases Susceptibility of Soil Edaphic Properties, Bacterial Community Structure, and Function to Change with Extreme Precipitation Event

The intensity and frequency of ecosystem disturbances are shifting with climate change, and multiple disturbances in close succession have the potential to compound their independent effects and strongly alter ecosystem structure and function. In this paper, we examine the effects of an extreme precipitation event on a montane forest landscape that was previously decimated by wildfire (37 months prior) relative to an unburned site in the same ecosystem. We assessed responses in soil edaphic properties, bacterial community composition and assembly, and soil enzyme activities involved in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) acquisition. Our research reveals that previously burned landscapes are susceptible to a subsequent extreme precipitation event via significant increases in soil pH where unburned soils are not. Beta- and Delta-proteobacteria associated with early succession increased and shifts were observed in N- vs. C-acquiring extracellular enzymes within burned soils after the extreme precipitation event. Finally, we connected variation in ecological selective pressures on bacterial communities associated with pH change to these differences in microbial mediated soil enzyme activity. Thus, this research demonstrates how multiple, compounding disturbances drive distinct changes relative to systems experiencing a single disturbance and suggests that changes in bacterial community assembly process with disturbance may underlie this response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Resource demand growth and sustainability due to increased world consumption

The paper aims at continuing the discussion on sustainability and attempts to forecast the impossibility of the expanding consumption worldwide due to the planet’s limited resources. As the population of China, India and other developing countries continue to increase, they would also require more natural and financial resources to sustain their growth. We coarsely estimate the volumes of these resources (energy, food, freshwater) and the gross domestic product (GDP) that would need to be achieved to bring the population of India and China to the current levels of consumption in the United States. We also provide estimations for potentially needed immediate growth of the world resource consumption to meet this equality requirement. Given the tight historical correlation between GDP and energy consumption, the needed increase of GDP per capita in the developing world to the levels of the U.S. would deplete explored fossil fuel reserves in less than two decades. These estimates predict that the world economy would need to find a development model where growth would be achieved without heavy dependence on fossil fuels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

STELLAR MASS–GAS-PHASE METALLICITY RELATION AT 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 0.7: A POWER LAW WITH INCREASING SCATTER TOWARD THE LOW-MASS REGIME

We present the stellar mass (M{sub ∗})–gas-phase metallicity relation (MZR) and its scatter at intermediate redshifts (0.5⩽z⩽0.7) for 1381 field galaxies collected from deep spectroscopic surveys. The star formation rate (SFR) and color at a given M{sub ∗} of this magnitude-limited (R≲24 AB) sample are representative of normal star-forming galaxies. For masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}, our sample of 237 galaxies is ∼10 times larger than those in previous studies beyond the local universe. This huge gain in sample size enables superior constraints on the MZR and its scatter in the low-mass regime. We find a power-law MZR at 10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}: 12+log(O/H)=(5.83±0.19) +(0.30±0.02)log(M{sub ∗}/M{sub ⊙}). At 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 10.5} M{sub ⊙}, our MZR shows agreement with others measured at similar redshifts in the literature. Our power-law slope is, however, shallower than the extrapolation of the MZRs of others to masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. The SFR dependence of the MZR in our sample is weaker than that found for local galaxies (known as the fundamental metallicity relation). Compared to a variety of theoretical models, the slope of our MZR for low-mass galaxies agrees well with predictions incorporating supernova energy-driven winds. Being robust against currently uncertain metallicity calibrations, the scatter of the MZR serves as a powerful diagnostic of the stochastic history of gas accretion, gas recycling, and star formation of low-mass galaxies. Our major result is that the scatter of our MZR increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Our result implies that either the scatter of the baryonic accretion rate (σ{sub M-dot }) or the scatter of the M{sub ∗}–M{sub halo} relation (σ{sub SHMR}) increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Moreover, our measure of scatter at z=0.7 appears consistent with that found for local galaxies. This lack of redshift evolution constrains models of galaxy evolution to have both σ{sub M-dot }and σ{sub SHMR} remain unchanged from z=0.7 to z = 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗