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NASA NTRS2017

Echoes of the Past, Glimpses of the Future - Ongoing Trends in Assurance of EEE Parts for Spaceflight

This presentation will review some past NASA presentations that had identified challenges and future trends in the assurance of Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts for spaceflight applications. It will contrast the concerns expressed in those presentations with the challenges of today and identify trends that give insight into the future. Common themes include the use of commercial parts, limited technical and physical resources, the pace of technology change and the difficulties in handling and testing individual parts as they become smaller and more complex. Some options for dealing with these challenges will be suggested to accommodate increasing numbers of smallsats, cubesats, constellations and other disruptive concepts, as space becomes more and more commercialized.

NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) Program↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2017

Advanced Curation Activities at NASA: Implications for Astrobiological Studies of Future Sample Collections

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10F JSC is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. The Directive goes on to define Curation as including documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for re-search, education, and public outreach. Here we briefly describe NASA's astromaterials collections and our ongoing efforts related to enhancing the utility of our current collections as well as our efforts to prepare for future sample return missions. We collectively refer to these efforts as advanced curation.

McCubbin, F. M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM (sub 2.5)) are associated with premature human mortality; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14 percent of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM (sub 2.5), we estimate 55,600 (34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16 percent the global decrease in PM (sub 2.5)-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

Atmohspheric chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2017

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The Natural Environments Branch of the Engineering Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides solar cycle forecasts for NASA space flight programs and the aerospace community. These forecasts provide future statistical estimates of sunspot number, solar radio 10.7 cm flux (F10.7), and the geomagnetic planetary index, Ap, for input to various space environment models. For example, many thermosphere density computer models used in spacecraft operations, orbital lifetime analysis, and the planning of future spacecraft missions require as inputs the F10.7 and Ap. The solar forecast is updated each month by executing MSAFE using historical and the latest month's observed solar indices to provide estimates for the balance of the current solar cycle. The forecasted solar indices represent the 13-month smoothed values consisting of a best estimate value stated as a 50 percentile value along with approximate +/- 2 sigma values stated as 95 and 5 percentile statistical values. This presentation will give an overview of the MSAFE model and the forecast for the current solar cycle.

Suggs, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2017

Selection of High Temperature Organic Materials for Future Stirling Convertors

In the future higher temperature Stirling convertors for improved efficiency and performance, various high temperature organic materials have been demanded as essential components for their unique properties and functions such as bonding, potting, sealing, thread locking, insulation, and lubrication. The higher temperature capabilities would also allow current state-of-the-art (SOA) convertors to be used in additional missions, particularly those that require a Venus flyby for a gravity assist. Stirling convertor radioisotope generators have been developed for potential future space applications including Lunar/Mars surface power or a variety of spacecraft and vehicles, especially with a long mission cycle, sometimes up to 17 years, such as deep space exploration. Thus, performance, durability, and reliability of the organics should be critically evaluated in terms of comprehensive structure-process-service environment relations based on the potential mission specifications. The initial efforts in screening the high temperature candidates focused on the most susceptible organics, such as adhesive, potting compound, o-ring, shrink tubing, and thread locker materials in conjunction with commercially available materials. More systematic and practical test methodologies that were developed and optimized based on the extensive organic evaluations and validations performed for various Stirling convertor types were employed to determine thermal stability, outgassing, and material compatibility of the selected organic candidates against their functional requirements. Processing and fabrication conditions and procedures were also optimized. This paper presents results of the three-step candidate evaluation processes, their application limitations, and the final selection recommendations.

Organics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Key Gaps for Enabling Plant Growth in Future Missions

Growing plants to provide food or psychological benefits to crewmembers is a common vision for the future of human spaceflight, often represented both in media and in serious concept studies. The complexity of controlled environment agriculture and of plant growth in microgravity have and continue to be the subject of dedicated scientific research. However, actually implementing these systems in a way that will be cost effective, efficient, and sustainable for future space missions is a complex, multi-disciplinary problem. Key questions exist in many areas: human research in nutrition and psychology, horticulture, plant physiology and microbiology, multi-phase microgravity fluid physics, hardware design and technology development, and system design, operations and mission planning. The criticality of the research, and the ideal solution, will vary depending on the mission and type of system implementation being considered.

Anderson, Molly S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Screening of High Temperature Organic Materials for Future Stirling Convertors

Along with major advancement of Stirling-based convertors, high temperature organics are needed to develop future higher temperature convertors for much improved efficiencies as well as to improve the margin of reliability for the current SOA (State-of-the-Art) convertors. The higher temperature capabilities would improve robustness of the convertors and also allow them to be used in additional missions, particularly ones that require a Venus flyby for a gravity assist. Various organic materials have been employed as essential components in the convertor for their unique properties and functions such as bonding, potting, sealing, thread locking, insulation, and lubrication. The Stirling convertor radioisotope generators have been developed for potential future space applications including Lunar/Mars surface power or a variety of spacecraft and vehicles, especially with a long mission cycle, sometimes up to 17 years, such as deep space exploration. Thus, performance, durability, and reliability of the organics should be critically evaluated in terms of every possible material structure-process-service environment relations based on the potential mission specifications. The initial efforts in screening the high temperature candidates focused on the most susceptible organics, such as adhesive, potting compound, O-ring, shrink tubing, and thread locker materials in conjunction with commercially available materials. More systematic and practical test methodologies that were developed and optimized based on the extensive organic evaluations and validations performed for various Stirling convertor types were employed to determine thermal stability, outgassing, and material compatibility of the selected organic candidates against their functional requirements. Processing and fabrication conditions and procedures were also optimized. This report presents results of the three-step candidate evaluation processes, their application limitations, and the final selection recommendations.

Screening↗
NASA NTRS2017

Advanced Curation Activities at NASA: Preparing to Receive, Process, and Distribute Samples Returned from Future Missions

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office (henceforth referred to herein as NASA Curation Office) at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is responsible for curating all of NASA's extraterrestrial samples. Under the governing document, NASA Policy Directive (NPD) 7100.10F JSC is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. The Directive goes on to define Curation as including documentation, preservation, preparation, and distribution of samples for research, education, and public outreach. Here we briefly describe NASA's astromaterials collections and our ongoing efforts related to enhancing the utility of our current collections as well as our efforts to prepare for future sample return missions. We collectively refer to these efforts as advanced curation.

McCubbin, Francis M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Multi-Stage ADRs for Current and Future Astronomy Missions: Performance and Requirements for Cryogen-Free Operation

The cooling requirements for current (e.g. Astro-H) and future (e.g. IXO and ASP) astronomy missions pose significant challenges for the sub-Kelvin Cooler. In particular, the use of large detector arrays increases the cooling power needed, and the variety of cryocoolers that can be used for pre-cooling greatly expands the range of temperatures at which the sub-Kelvin cooler can be designed to reject heat. In most cases, there is also a need for a stable higher temperature stage for cooling amplifiers or telescope components. NASA/GSFC is currently building a 3-stage ADR for the Astro-H mission, and is developing a 5-stage ADR suitable for IXO and ASP, as well as many other missions in the early planning stages. The architecture of these ADRs allows them to be adapted rather easily for different cooling requirements and to accommodate different cryocooler capabilities (operating temperature and cooling power). This paper will discuss the performance of these ADRs, which operate in both continuous, and single-shot cooling modes, and the minimum cryocooler capabilities needed to meet the requirements of future missions.

Shirron, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2017

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90 of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Kigali Amendment↗
NASA NTRS2018

Robonaut 2 and Watson: Cognitive Dexterity for Future Exploration

Future exploration missions will dictate a level of autonomy never before experienced in human spaceflight. Mission plans involving the uncrewed phases of complex human spacecraft in deep space will require a coordinated autonomous capability to be able to maintain the spacecraft when ground control is not available. One promising direction involves embedding intelligence into the system design both through the employment of state-of-the-art system engineering principles as well as through the creation of a cognitive network between a smart spacecraft or habitat and embodiments of cognitive agents. The work described here details efforts to integrate IBM's Watson and other cognitive computing services into NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC)'s Robonaut 2 (R2) anthropomorphic robot. This paper also discusses future directions this work will take. A cognitive spacecraft management system that is able to seamlessly collect data from subsystems, determine corrective actions, and provide commands to enable those actions is the end goal. These commands could be to embedded spacecraft systems or to a set of robotic assets that are tied into the cognitive system. An exciting collaboration with Woodside provides a promising Earth-bound testing analog, as controlling and maintaining not normally manned off-shore platforms have similar constraints to the space missions described.

Badger, Julia M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sustaining PICA for Future NASA Robotic Science Missions Including NF-4 and Discovery

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), invented in the mid 1990's, is a low-density ablative thermal protection material proven capable of meeting sample return mission needs from the moon, asteroids, comets and other unrestricted class V destinations as well as for Mars. Its low density and efficient performance characteristics have proven effective for use from Discovery to Flag-ship class missions. It is important that NASA maintain this thermal protection material capability and ensure its availability for future NASA use. The rayon based carbon precursor raw material used in PICA preform manufacturing has experienced multiple supply chain issues and required replacement and requalification at least twice in the past 25 years and a third substitution is now needed. The carbon precursor replacement challenge is twofold - the first involves finding a long-term replacement for the current rayon and the second is to assess its future availability periodically to ensure it is sustainable and be alerted if additional replacement efforts need to be initiated. This paper reviews current PICA sustainability activities to identify a rayon replacement and to establish that the capability of the new PICA derived from an alternative precursor is in family with previous versions.

Stackpoole, Mairead↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sustaining PICA for Future NASA Robotic Science Missions Including NF-4 and Discovery

Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA), invented in the mid 1990's, is a low-density ablative thermal protection material proven capable of meeting sample return mission needs from the moon, asteroids, comets and other unrestricted class V destinations as well as for Mars. Its low density and efficient performance characteristics have proven effective for use from Discovery to Flag-ship class missions. It is important that NASA maintain this thermal protection material capability and ensure its availability for future NASA use. The rayon based carbon precursor raw material used in PICA preform manufacturing has experienced multiple supply chain issues and required replacement and requalification at least twice in the past 25 years and a third substitution is now needed. The carbon precursor replacement challenge is twofold - the first involves finding a long-term replacement for the current rayon and the second is to assess its future availability periodically to ensure it is sustainable and be alerted if additional replacement efforts need to be initiated. This paper reviews current PICA sustainability activities to identify a rayon replacement and to establish that the capability of the new PICA derived from an alternative precursor is in family with previous versions.

Stackpoole, Mairead↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Bounoua, Lahouari↗
NASA NTRS2018

Breaking the Cost Curve: Applying Lessons Learned from the James Webb Space Telescope Development to Build More Cost-Effective Large Space Telescopes in the Future

This paper looks at the key programmatic and technical drivers of the James Webb Space Telescope and assesses ways to building more cost-effective telescopes in the future. The paper evaluates the top level programmatics for JWST along with the key technical drivers from design through integration and testing. Actual data and metrics from JWST are studied to identify what ultimately drove cost on JWST. Finally, the paper assesses areas where applying lessons learned can reduce costs on future observatories and will provide better insights into critical areas to optimize for cost.

ATLAST↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evolution of Fundamental Technologies for Future Electrified Aircraft

Gradual progression of electric and hybrid electric aircraft from small planes to large planes will require technology advances in multiple areas, which include energy storage, electrical machines, power transmission, power electronics, control systems, materials, thermal management, and multi-scale modeling tools. Advances in both fundamental research and applied interdisciplinary research will be required to realize the goals for future electric and hybrid electric aircraft. The presentation will provide an overview of long-range research and technology needs for the next thirty years and how evolution of several early stage technologies will influence the development of electrified aircraft in the future.

Germany↗