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NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Patterns of Tectonism on Titan from Mountain Chains and Virgae

This research is based on the exploration of tectonic patterns on Titan from a global perspective. Several moons in the outer solar system display patterns of surface tectonic features that imply global stress fields driven or modified by global forces. Patterns such as these are seen in Europa's tidally induced fracture patterns, Enceladus's tiger stripes, and Ganymede's global expansion induced normal fault bands. Given its proximity to Saturn, as well as its eccentric orbit, tectonic features and global stresses may be present on Titan as well. Titan displays possible tectonic structures, such as mountain chains along its equator (Radebaugh et al. 2007), as well as the unexplored dark linear streaks termed virgae by the IAU. Imaged by Cassini with the RADAR instrument, mountain chains near the equator are observed with a predominante east-west orientation (Liu et al. 2012, Mitri et al. 2010). Orientations such as these can be explained by modifications in the global tidal stress field induced by global contraction followed by rotational spin-up. Also, due to Titan's eccentric orbit, its current rotation rate may be in an equilibrium between tidal spin-up near periapsis and spin-down near apoapsis (Barnes and Fortney 2003). Additional stress from rotational spin-up provides an asymmetry to the stress field. This, combined with an isotropic stress from radial contraction, favors the formation of equatorial mountain chains in an east-west direction. The virgae, which have been imaged by Cassini with both the Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) instruments, are located predominately near 30 degrees latitude in either hemisphere. Oriented with a pronounced elongation in the east-west direction, all observed virgae display similar characteristics: similar relative albedos as the surrounding terrain however darkened with an apparent neutral absorber, broken-linear or rounded sharp edges, and connected, angular elements with distinct, linear edges. Virgae imaged during northern latitude passes are oriented with their long dimensions toward Titan's antiSaturn point. If the virgae are of tectonic origin, for instance if the turn out to be i.e. grabens, they could serve as markers to Titan's global stress field. Using them in this way allows for a mapping of global tectonic patterns. These patterns will be tested for consistency against the various sources of global stress and orientations of mountain chains. By determining what drives Titan's tectonics globally, we will be able to place Titan within the context of the other outer planet icy satellites.

Cook, C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Progress in Entry Radiation Measurements in the NASA Ames Electric ARC Shock Tube Facility

The Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames Research Center is NASA's only working shock tube capable of obtaining conditions representative of entry in a multitude of planetary atmospheres. The facility is capable of mapping spectroscopic signatures of a wide range of planetary entries from the Vacuum Ultraviolet through Mid-Wave Infrared (120-5500 nm). This paper summarizes the tests performed in EAST for Earth, Mars and Venus entries since 2008, then focuses on a specific test case for CO2/N2 mixtures. In particular, the paper will focus on providing information for the proper interpretation of the EAST data.

Cruden, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Advanced Spectroscopic and Thermal Imaging Instrumentation for Shock Tube and Ballistic Range Facilities

The Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility and Hypervelocity Free Flight Aerodynamic Facility (HFFAF, an aeroballistic range) at NASA Ames support basic research in aerothermodynamic phenomena of atmospheric entry, specifically shock layer radiation spectroscopy, convective and radiative heat transfer, and transition to turbulence. Innovative optical instrumentation has been developed and implemented to meet the challenges posed from obtaining such data in these impulse facilities. Spatially and spectrally resolved measurements of absolute radiance of a travelling shock wave in EAST are acquired using multiplexed, time-gated imaging spectrographs. Nearly complete spectral coverage from the vacuum ultraviolet to the near infrared is possible in a single experiment. Time-gated thermal imaging of ballistic range models in flight enables quantitative, global measurements of surface temperature. These images can be interpreted to determine convective heat transfer rates and reveal transition to turbulence due to isolated and distributed surface roughness at hypersonic velocities. The focus of this paper is a detailed description of the optical instrumentation currently in use in the EAST and HFFAF.

Grinstead, Jay H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Comparative Study on High-Order Positivity-preserving WENO Schemes

The goal of this study is to compare the results obtained by non-positivity-preserving methods with the recently developed positivity-preserving schemes for representative test cases. In particular the more di cult 3D Noh and Sedov problems are considered. These test cases are chosen because of the negative pressure/density most often exhibited by standard high-order shock-capturing schemes. The simulation of a hypersonic nonequilibrium viscous shock tube that is related to the NASA Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is also included. EAST is a high-temperature and high Mach number viscous nonequilibrium ow consisting of 13 species. In addition, as most common shock-capturing schemes have been developed for problems without source terms, when applied to problems with nonlinear and/or sti source terms these methods can result in spurious solutions, even when solving a conservative system of equations with a conservative scheme. This kind of behavior can be observed even for a scalar case (LeVeque & Yee 1990) as well as for the case consisting of two species and one reaction (Wang et al. 2012). For further information concerning this issue see (LeVeque & Yee 1990; Griffiths et al. 1992; Lafon & Yee 1996; Yee et al. 2012). This EAST example indicated that standard high-order shock-capturing methods exhibit instability of density/pressure in addition to grid-dependent discontinuity locations with insufficient grid points. The evaluation of these test cases is based on the stability of the numerical schemes together with the accuracy of the obtained solutions.

Kotov, Dmitry V.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Comparative Study on High-Order Positivity-preserving WENO Schemes

In gas dynamics and magnetohydrodynamics flows, physically, the density and the pressure p should both be positive. In a standard conservative numerical scheme, however, the computed internal energy is obtained by subtracting the kinetic energy from the total energy, resulting in a computed p that may be negative. Examples are problems in which the dominant energy is kinetic. Negative may often emerge in computing blast waves. In such situations the computed eigenvalues of the Jacobian will become imaginary. Consequently, the initial value problem for the linearized system will be ill posed. This explains why failure of preserving positivity of density or pressure may cause blow-ups of the numerical algorithm. The adhoc methods in numerical strategy which modify the computed negative density and/or the computed negative pressure to be positive are neither a conservative cure nor a stable solution. Conservative positivity-preserving schemes are more appropriate for such flow problems. The ideas of Zhang & Shu (2012) and Hu et al. (2012) precisely address the aforementioned issue. Zhang & Shu constructed a new conservative positivity-preserving procedure to preserve positive density and pressure for high-order WENO schemes by the Lax-Friedrichs flux (WENO/LLF). In general, WENO/LLF is too dissipative for flows such as turbulence with strong shocks computed in direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES). The new conservative positivity-preserving procedure proposed in Hu et al. (2012) can be used with any high-order shock-capturing scheme, including high-order WENO schemes using the Roe's flux (WENO/Roe). The goal of this study is to compare the results obtained by non-positivity-preserving methods with the recently developed positivity-preserving schemes for representative test cases. In particular the more difficult 3D Noh and Sedov problems are considered. These test cases are chosen because of the negative pressure/density most often exhibited by standard high-order shock-capturing schemes. The simulation of a hypersonic nonequilibrium viscous shock tube that is related to the NASA Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is also included. EAST is a high-temperature and high Mach number viscous nonequilibrium flow consisting of 13 species. In addition, as most common shock-capturing schemes have been developed for problems without source terms, when applied to problems with nonlinear and/or sti source terms these methods can result in spurious solutions, even when solving a conservative system of equations with a conservative scheme. This kind of behavior can be observed even for a scalar case (LeVeque & Yee 1990) as well as for the case consisting of two species and one reaction (Wang et al. 2012). For further information concerning this issue see (LeVeque & Yee 1990; Griffiths et al. 1992; Lafon & Yee 1996; Yee et al. 2012). This EAST example indicated that standard high-order shock-capturing methods exhibit instability of density/pressure in addition to grid-dependent discontinuity locations with insufficient grid points. The evaluation of these test cases is based on the stability of the numerical schemes together with the accuracy of the obtained solutions.

WENO↗
NASA NTRS2012

Longitudinal Differences of Ionospheric Vertical Density Distribution and Equatorial Electrodynamics

Accurate estimation of global vertical distribution of ionospheric and plasmaspheric density as a function of local time, season, and magnetic activity is required to improve the operation of space-based navigation and communication systems. The vertical density distribution, especially at low and equatorial latitudes, is governed by the equatorial electrodynamics that produces a vertical driving force. The vertical structure of the equatorial density distribution can be observed by using tomographic reconstruction techniques on ground-based global positioning system (GPS) total electron content (TEC). Similarly, the vertical drift, which is one of the driving mechanisms that govern equatorial electrodynamics and strongly affect the structure and dynamics of the ionosphere in the low/midlatitude region, can be estimated using ground magnetometer observations. We present tomographically reconstructed density distribution and the corresponding vertical drifts at two different longitudes: the East African and west South American sectors. Chains of GPS stations in the east African and west South American longitudinal sectors, covering the equatorial anomaly region of meridian approx. 37 deg and 290 deg E, respectively, are used to reconstruct the vertical density distribution. Similarly, magnetometer sites of African Meridian B-field Education and Research (AMBER) and INTERMAGNET for the east African sector and South American Meridional B-field Array (SAMBA) and Low Latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network (LISN) are used to estimate the vertical drift velocity at two distinct longitudes. The comparison between the reconstructed and Jicamarca Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measured density profiles shows excellent agreement, demonstrating the usefulness of tomographic reconstruction technique in providing the vertical density distribution at different longitudes. Similarly, the comparison between magnetometer estimated vertical drift and other independent drift observation, such as from VEFI onboard Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite and JULIA radar, is equally promising. The observations at different longitudes suggest that the vertical drift velocities and the vertical density distribution have significant longitudinal differences; especially the equatorial anomaly peaks expand to higher latitudes more in American sector than the African sector, indicating that the vertical drift in the American sector is stronger than the African sector.

total electron content↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparitive Study of High-Order Positivity-Preserving WENO Schemes

In gas dynamics and magnetohydrodynamics flows, physically, the density ρ and the pressure p should both be positive. In a standard conservative numerical scheme, however, the computed internal energy is The ideas of Zhang & Shu (2012) and Hu et al. (2012) precisely address the aforementioned issue. Zhang & Shu constructed a new conservative positivity-preserving procedure to preserve positive density and pressure for high-order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) schemes by the Lax-Friedrichs flux (WENO/LLF). In general, WENO/LLF is obtained by subtracting the kinetic energy from the total energy, resulting in a computed p that may be negative. Examples are problems in which the dominant energy is kinetic. Negative ρ may often emerge in computing blast waves. In such situations the computed eigenvalues of the Jacobian will become imaginary. Consequently, the initial value problem for the linearized system will be ill posed. This explains why failure of preserving positivity of density or pressure may cause blow-ups of the numerical algorithm. The adhoc methods in numerical strategy which modify the computed negative density and/or the computed negative pressure to be positive are neither a conservative cure nor a stable solution. Conservative positivity-preserving schemes are more appropriate for such flow problems. too dissipative for flows such as turbulence with strong shocks computed in direct numerical simulations (DNS) and large eddy simulations (LES). The new conservative positivity-preserving procedure proposed in Hu et al. (2012) can be used with any high-order shock-capturing scheme, including high-order WENO schemes using the Roe's flux (WENO/Roe). The goal of this study is to compare the results obtained by non-positivity-preserving methods with the recently developed positivity-preserving schemes for representative test cases. In particular the more di cult 3D Noh and Sedov problems are considered. These test cases are chosen because of the negative pressure/density most often exhibited by standard high-order shock-capturing schemes. The simulation of a hypersonic nonequilibrium viscous shock tube that is related to the NASA Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) is also included. EAST is a high-temperature and high Mach number viscous nonequilibrium ow consisting of 13 species. In addition, as most common shock-capturing schemes have been developed for problems without source terms, when applied to problems with nonlinear and/or sti source terms these methods can result in spurious solutions, even when solving a conservative system of equations with a conservative scheme. This kind of behavior can be observed even for a scalar case as well as for the case consisting of two species and one reaction.. This EAST example indicated that standard high-order shock-capturing methods exhibit instability of density/pressure in addition to grid-dependent discontinuity locations with insufficient grid points. The evaluation of these test cases is based on the stability of the numerical schemes together with the accuracy of the obtained solutions.

Schemes↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Gray Needle: Large Grains in the HD 15115 Debris Disk from LBT*/PISCES/K s and LBTIi+/LMIRcam/L(prime) Adaptive Optics Imaging

We present diffraction-limited K s band and L(prime) adaptive optics images of the edge-on debris disk around the nearby F2 star HD 15115, obtained with a single 8.4 m primary mirror at the Large Binocular Telescope. At the Ks band, the disk is detected at signal-to-noise per resolution element (SNRE) approx. 3-8 from approx. 1 to 2".5 (45-113 AU) on the western side and from approx. 1". 2 to 2".1 (63-90 AU) on the east. At L the disk is detected at SNRE approx. 2.5 from approx. 1 to 1".45 (45-90 AU) on both sides, implying more symmetric disk structure at 3.8 micrometers. At both wavelengths the disk has a bow-like shape and is offset from the star to the north by a few AU. A surface brightness asymmetry exists between the two sides of the disk at the Ks band, but not at L(prime). The surface brightness at the K s band declines inside 1"(approx. 45 AU), which may be indicative of a gap in the disk near 1".The K s − L(prime) disk color, after removal of the stellar color, is mostly gray for both sides of the disk. This suggests that scattered light is coming from large dust grains, with 3-10 micrometers sized grains on the east side and 1-10 micrometers dust grains on the west. This may suggest that the west side is composed of smaller dust grains than the east side, which would support the interpretation that the disk is being dynamically affected by interactions with the local interstellar medium.

signal-to-noise↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

This paper presents measurements and simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation relevant to high-speed Earth entry data obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79 N2 : 21 O2) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08 N2 : 20.95 O2 : 0.04 CO2 : 0.93 Ar). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to promote discussion about various aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance profiles integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the VUV through to the NIR, were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURAHARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50 and over-predict by as much as 20 depending on the shock speed. DPLRNEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40 and over-predict by as much as 12 depending on the shock speed. In terms of an upper bound estimate for the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux, at the lower speeds investigated in this paper, 8 to 9 km/s, even though there are some large relative differences, the absolute error in radiance will be less then 1 Wcm2. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error will be less than 20 W/ sq cm.

Radiation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Africa's Megafans and Their Tectonic Setting

Megafans are a really extensive continental sediment bodies, fluvially derived, and fan-shaped in planform. Only those >80 km long were included in this study. Africa's megafans were mapped for purposes of both comprehensive geomorphic description and as a method of mapping by remote sensing large probable fluvial sediment bodies (we exclude sediment bodies deposited in well defined, modern floodplains and coastal deltas). Our criteria included a length dimension of >80 km and maximum width >40 km, partial cone morphology, and a radial drainage pattern. Visible and especially IR imagery were used to identify the features, combined with topographic SRTM data. We identified 99 megafans most of which are unstudied thus far. Their feeder rivers responsible for depositing megafan sediments rise on, and are consequent drainages oriented down the slopes of the swells that have dominated African landscapes since approximately 34 Ma (the high points in Africa's so-called basin-and-swell topography [1]). Most megafans (66%) have developed along these consequent rivers relatively near the swell cores, oriented radially away from the swells. The vast basins between the swells provide accommodation for megafan sediment wedges. Although clearly visible remotely, most megafans are inactive as a result of incision by the feeder river (which then no longer operates on the fan surface). Two tectonic settings control the location of Africa's megafans, 66% on swell flanks, and 33% related to rifts. (i) Swell flanks Most megafans are apexed relatively near the core of the parent swell, and are often clustered in groups: e.g., six on the west and north flanks of the Hoggar Swell (Algeria), seven on the north and south flanks of the Tibesti Swell (Libya-Chad borderlands), twelve on the west flank of the Ethiopian Swell, four on the east flank of the East African Swell (Kenya), Africa's largest, and eight around Angola's Bié Swell (western Zambia, northern Namibia). A cluster of possible fans lies on the western margin of the Congo Basin (Mayombe Swell), and on the coastal slopes of the Namibia Swell. Sheer size may have militated aginst the recognition of many megafans: the largest in the Sahara are the Teghahart (378 km, Hoggar Swell, Algeria), and the Wadi Albalata (340 km, Uweinat Swell, Egypt). In southern Africa the largest are the Cubango (320 km, Bié Swell, Angola/ Namibia), and the Limpopo (230 km, Mozambique). (ii) Rift zones (a) Steer's horns basins-wide depressions centered on rifts. The largest contiguous group (n=14) developed in a steer's-horns basin occupies the wide Muglad depression (200-350 km, South Sudan). Four rift-related megafans lie SE of Lake Chad (Chad). Nine megafans occupy the complex Anza Rift in Kenya/South Somalia. The Salamat megafan (Chad), is unusual because it oriented parallel with the linked Salamat, Doseo and Doba rift axes, and is consequently one of the longest in Africa (465 km). (b) Rift depressions sensu stricto. Most rifts are too narrow to provide a transverse dimension large enough to accommodate megafans. Although well-known, the Okavango Rift (NW Botswana, NE Namibia) is unique in Africa in hosting three megafans within identifiable faulted margins. The Nile megafan is Africa's largest (476 km) and comprises the vast Sudd wetland (South Sudan). An explanation for its remarkable size may be its location in a depression at the junction of two conducive tectonic zones, the East African Swell margin and the Muglad steer's-horns depression. Discharge of the River Nile, the largest in the region, has allowed the Nile megafan to outcompete neighboring megafans for space.

Wilkinson, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Validation of High Speed Earth Atmospheric Entry Radiative Heating from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s

This paper presents an overview of the analysis and measurements of equilibrium radiation obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility as a part of recent testing aimed at reaching shock velocities up to 15.5 km/s. The goal of these experiments was to measure the level of radiation encountered during high speed Earth entry conditions, such as would be relevant for an asteroid, inter-planetary or lunar return mission. These experiments provide the first spectrally and spatially resolved data for high speed Earth entry and cover conditions ranging from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s at 13.3 and 26.6 Pa (0.1 and 0.2 Torr). The present analysis endeavors to provide a validation of shock tube radiation measurements and simulations at high speed conditions. A comprehensive comparison between the spectrally resolved absolute equilibrium radiance measured in EAST and the predictive tools, NEQAIR and HARA, is presented. In order to provide a more accurate representation of the agreement between the experimental and simulation results, the integrated value of radiance has been compared across four spectral regions (VUV, UV/Vis, Vis/NIR and IR) as a function of velocity. Results have generally shown excellent agreement between the two codes and EAST data for the Vis through IR spectral regions, however, discrepancies have been identified in the VUV and parts of the UV spectral regions. As a result of the analysis presented in this paper, an updated parametric uncertainty for high speed radiation in air has been evaluated to be [9.0%, -6.3%]. Furthermore, due to the nature of the radiating environment at these high shock speeds, initial calculations aimed at modeling phenomena that become more significant with increasing shock speed have been performed. These phenomena include analyzing the radiating species emitting ahead of the shock and the increased significance of radiative cooling mechanisms.

Equilibrium↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global and Regional Radiative Forcing from 20 Reductions in BC, OC and SO4 an HTAP2 Multi-Model Study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4/ from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8mW/sq m/Tg for BC, between -2.4 and -17.9mW/sq m/Tg for OA and between -3.6 and -10.3W/sq m/Tg for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE)↗
NASA NTRS2018

Improved Detection of Low Stratus and Fog at Dawn from Dual Geostationary (COMS and FY-2D) Satellites

A novel method was proposed to detect low stratus and fog (LSF) at dawn during the summertime using near simultaneous observations from dual geostationary-orbit satellites (GEOs): the Korean Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS; 128.2 degrees East) and the Chinese Feng-Yun-2D (FY-2D; 86.5 degrees East). The orbital positions of the GEOs provided a large difference (around 46.5 degrees) in the viewing zenith angle (VZA) in the study region (122-132 degrees East, 32.5-42.5 degrees North) and high contrast observations at dawn. Numerical simulations were carried out to derive the optical properties of the LSF and the radiative differences between the GEOs due to both the VZA and spectral response function (SRF). The conventional threshold method, which used the visible reflectance at 0.67 microns (R (sub 0.67)) and the brightness temperature difference between 3.7 microns and 11 microns (BTD (sub 3.7-11), had limitations in detecting LSF at dawn due to weak visible light and fast night-to-day transition. We utilized the observed stereo differences (delta R (sub 0.67), delta BTD (sub 3.7-11) between the two GEOs to improve LSF detection. The dual-satellite observations were verified with ground-based data from 45 stations in South Korea co-located with each GEO pixel. The delta R (sub 0.67) threshold value showed better accuracy (78 percent vs. 67 percent) than the conventional R (sub 0.67) threshold method. In addition, the delta BTD (sub 3.7-11) threshold was better (55 percent vs. 38 percent) than the BTD (sub 3.7-11) threshold. The dual-satellite method allowed more reliable LSF detection using the combination of delta R (sub 0.67) and R (sub 0.67), particularly for LSF without cumuliform or high clouds. Our method is applicable to multiple geostationary satellites for continuous LSF monitoring.

geostationary satellite↗
NASA NTRS2021

A data–model approach to interpreting speleothem oxygen isotope records from monsoon regions

Reconstruction of past changes in monsoon climate from speleothem oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records is complex because δ 18 O signals can be influenced by multiple factors including changes in precipitation, precipitation recycling over land, temperature at the moisture source, and changes in the moisture source region and transport pathway. Here, we analyse >150 speleothem records of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database to produce composite regional trends in δ 18 O in monsoon regions; compositing minimises the influence of site-specific karst and cave processes that can influence individual site records. We compare speleothem δ 18 O observations with isotope-enabled climate model simulations to investigate the specific climatic factors causing these regional trends. We focus on differences in δ 18 O signals between the mid-Holocene, the peak of the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as on δ 18 O evolution through the Holocene. Differences in speleothem δ 18 O between the mid-Holocene and the Last Interglacial in the East Asian and Indian monsoons are small, despite the larger summer insolation values during the Last Interglacial. Last Glacial Maximum δ 18 O values are significantly less negative than interglacial values. Comparison with simulated glacial–interglacial δ 18 O shows that changes are principally driven by global shifts in temperature and regional precipitation. Holocene speleothem δ 18 O records show distinct and coherent regional trends. Trends are similar to summer insolation in India, China and southwestern South America, but they are different in the Indonesian–Australian region. Redundancy analysis shows that 37 % of Holocene variability can be accounted for by latitude and longitude, supporting the differentiation of records into individual monsoon regions. Regression analysis of simulated precipitation δ 18 O and climate variables show significant relationships between global Holocene monsoon δ 18 O trends and changes in precipitation, atmospheric circulation and (to a lesser extent) source area temperature, whereas precipitation recycling is non-significant. However, there are differences in regional-scale mechanisms: there are clear relationships between changes in precipitation and δ 18 O for India, southwestern South America and the Indonesian–Australian regions but not for the East Asian monsoon. Changes in atmospheric circulation contribute to δ 18 O trends in the East Asian, Indian and Indonesian–Australian monsoons, and a weak source area temperature effect is observed over southern and central America and Asia. Precipitation recycling is influential in southwestern South America and southern Africa. Overall, our analyses show that it is possible to differentiate the impacts of specific climatic mechanisms influencing precipitation δ 18 O and use this analysis to interpret changes in speleothem δ 18 O.

speleothem oxygen isotope records↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Efficacy of Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Forecasts for Predicting Vegetation Activity Over Africa

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) provides important information on terrestrial hydroclimate and may have value for seasonal forecasting because of its strong persistence. We use the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS) to investigate TWS forecast skill over Africa and assess its value for predicting vegetation activity from satellite estimates of leaf area index (LAI). Forecast skill is high over East and Southern Africa, extending up to 3–6 months in some cases, with more modest skill over West Africa. Highest skill generally occurs during the dry season or beginning of the wet season when TWS anomalies from the previous wet season are most likely to carry forward in time. In East Africa, this occurs prior to and during the transition into the spring “Long Rains” from January–March, while in Southern Africa this period of highest skill starts at the beginning of the dry season in April and extends through to the start of the wet season in October. TWS is highly and positively correlated with LAI, and a logistic regression model shows high cross-validation skill in predicting above or below normal LAI using TWS. Combining the LAI regression model with the NHyFAS forecasts, 1-month lead LAI predictions have high accuracy over East and Southern Africa, with reduced but significant skill at 3-month leads over smaller sub-regions. This highlights the potential value of TWS as an additional source of information for seasonal forecasts over Africa, with direct applications to some of the most vulnerable agricultural regions on the continent.

Terrestrial water shortage↗