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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest residue harvest optimization: spanning the bridge between plant biology and biorefinery performance

Forestry residues have immense potential as alternative feedstocks to petroleum, yet their inherent complexity remains a major challenge to widespread use. Pairing the temporal rhythms of plant biology with biorefinery performance is critical to industrial-scale biorefinery development. Here, we provide the first report of a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) for a model integrated reductive catalytic fractionation (RCF)–molten salt hydrolysis process for forestry residues varying in tree part, species, and phenophase. All forestry residues resulted in net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions vs. comparable petroleum feedstocks, with GHG emissions potentially reduced >4.0× through composition-based feedstock selection (e.g., harvesting American beech bark in spring vs. summer). Moreover, American beech twigs/branchlets and bark in leafed and emergence phenophases, respectively, had 7.9× lower predicted phenolic minimum selling prices (MSPs) vs. other feedstocks and MSPs within the current global phenolic market range. Hemicellulose content and RCF yield emerged as key parameters impacting GHG emissions and biorefinery revenue, identifying hardwood twigs/branchlets in the leafed phenophase as optimal biofeedstocks. Biorefinery expenses were dominated by purchased equipment, raw materials, and utility costs, highlighting essential areas for future study. Notably, RCF reactor pressures drove 85–90% of equipment costs, but sensitivity analysis revealed that decreasing the pressure 20% could reduce the phenol MSP 4-fold. Structural carbohydrate dynamics were also investigated using a two-step acid hydrolysis method to resolve tissue- and species-level patterns in biomass composition throughout the year to enable harvest optimization based on TEA/LCA findings. Ultimately, elucidating the impact of biofeedstock dynamics on biorefinery performance enables harvest optimization, informed engineering design, and progress towards an expanded bioeconomy.

Shapiro, Alison J. [University of Delaware, Newark↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems ↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Study of Propane Combustion in a Spark-Ignited Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) Engine

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), whose primary composition is propane, is a promising candidate for heavy-duty vehicle applications as a diesel fuel alternative due to its CO 2 reduction potential and high knock resistance. To realize diesel-like efficiencies, spark-ignited LPG engines are proposed to operate near knock-limit over a wide range of operating conditions, which necessitates an investigation of fuel-engine interactions that leads to end-gas autoignition with propane combustion. This work presents both experimental and numerical studies of stoichiometric propane combustion in a sparkignited (SI) cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine. Engine experiments are initially conducted at different compression ratio (CR) values, and the effects of CR on engine combustion are characterized. A three-pressure analysis (TPA) model based on the two-zone combustion concept is developed in GT-Power and validated using test results to estimate in-cylinder wall temperatures, residual gas fraction, etc. This model is further utilized to examine end-gas chemistry by enabling the SI turbulent flame combustion and unburned gas chemical kinetics modules. Finally, a three-dimensional (3D) computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model of the CFR engine is developed in CONVERGE, where the G-equation and SAGE detailed chemical kinetics models are implemented for combustion modeling. Here, a 153 species reduced chemical kinetics mechanism derived from the detailed NUIGMech1.1 mechanism based on the ignition delay and laminar flame speed (LFS) studies is used to generate an LFS lookup table and to describe end-gas autoignition chemistry. Multi-cycle Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations are then performed for the tested CRs, and the numerical model is shown to be capable of predicting the propane combustion characteristics, particularly the end-gas autoignition behavior.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Controlling Microbial Byproducts using Model-Based Substrate Monitoring and Control Strategies

We have developed a computer-controlled bioreactor system to study various aspects of microbially-mediated nitrogen cycling. The system has been used to investigate methods for controlling microbial denitrification (the dissimilatory reduction of nitrate to N2O and N2) in hydroponic plant growth chambers. Such chambers are key elements of advanced life support systems being designed for use on long duration space missions, but nitrogen use efficiency in them is reduced by denitrification. Control software architecture was designed which permits the heterogeneous control of system hardware using traditional feedback control, and quantitative and qualitative models of various system features. Model-based feed forward control entails prediction of future systems in states and automated regulation of system parameters to achieve desired and avoid undesirable system states. A bacterial growth rate model based on the classic Monod model of saturation kinetics was used to evaluate the response of several individual denitrifying species to varying environmental conditions. The system and models are now being applied to mixed microbial communities harvested from the root zone of a hydroponic growth chamber. The use of a modified Monod organism interaction model was evaluated as a means of achieving more accurate description of the dynamic behavior of the communities. A minimum variance parameter estimation routine was also' used to calibrate the constant parameters in the model by iterative evaluation of substrate (nitrate) uptake and growth kinetics. This representation of processes and interactions aids in the formulation of control laws. The feed forward control strategy being developed will increase system autonomy, reduce crew intervention and limit the accumulation of undesirable waste products (NOx).

Smernoff, David T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Nozzle Jet Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Signature

An axisymmetric full Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study was conducted to examine nozzle exhaust jet plume effects on the sonic boom signature of a supersonic aircraft. A simplified axisymmetric nozzle geometry, representative of the nozzle on the NASA Dryden NF-15B Lift and Nozzle Change Effects on Tail Shock (LaNCETS) research airplane, was considered. The highly underexpanded nozzle flow is found to provide significantly more reduction in the tail shock strength in the sonic boom N-wave pressure signature than perfectly expanded and overexpanded nozzle flows. A tail shock train in the sonic boom signature, similar to what was observed in the LaNCETS flight data, is observed for the highly underexpanded nozzle flow. The CFD results provide a detailed description of the nozzle flow physics involved in the LaNCETS nozzle at different nozzle expansion conditions and help in interpreting LaNCETS flight data as well as in the eventual CFD analysis of a full LaNCETS aircraft. The current study also provided important information on proper modeling of the LaNCETS aircraft nozzle. The primary objective of the current CFD research effort was to support the LaNCETS flight research data analysis effort by studying the detailed nozzle exhaust jet plume s imperfect expansion effects on the sonic boom signature of a supersonic aircraft. Figure 1 illustrates the primary flow physics present in the interaction between the exhaust jet plume shock and the sonic boom coming off of an axisymmetric body in supersonic flight. The steeper tail shock from highly expanded jet plume reduces the dip of the sonic boom N-wave signature. A structured finite-volume compressible full Navier-Stokes CFD code was used in the current study. This approach is not limited by the simplifying assumptions inherent in previous sonic boom analysis efforts. Also, this study was the first known jet plume sonic boom CFD study in which the full viscous nozzle flow field was modeled, without coupling to a sonic boom propagation analysis code, from the stagnation chamber of the nozzle to the far field external flow, taking into account all nonisentropic effects in the shocks, boundary layers, and free shear layers, and their interactions at distances up to 30 times the nozzle exit diameter from the jet centerline. A CFD solution is shown in Figure 2. The flow field is very complicated and multi-dimensional, with shock-shock and shockplume interactions. At the time of this reporting, a full three-dimensional CFD study was being conducted to evaluate the effects of nozzle vectoring on the aircraft tail shock strength.

Bui, Trong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model fusion with physics-guided machine learning: Projection-based reduced-order modeling

The unprecedented amount of data generated from experiments, field observations, and large-scale numerical simulations at a wide range of spatiotemporal scales has enabled the rapid advancement of data-driven and especially deep learning models in the field of fluid mechanics. Although these methods are proven successful for many applications, there is a grand challenge of improving their generalizability. This is particularly essential when data-driven models are employed within outer-loop applications like optimization. In this work, we put forth a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework that leverages the interpretable physics-based model with a deep learning model. Leveraging a concatenated neural network design from multi-modal data sources, the PGML framework is capable of enhancing the generalizability of data-driven models and effectively protects against or inform about the inaccurate predictions resulting from extrapolation. We apply the PGML framework as a novel model fusion approach combining the physics-based Galerkin projection model and long- to short-term memory (LSTM) network for parametric model order reduction of fluid flows. We demonstrate the improved generalizability of the PGML framework against a purely data-driven approach through the injection of physics features into intermediate LSTM layers. Our quantitative analysis shows that the overall model uncertainty can be reduced through the PGML approach, especially for test data coming from a distribution different than the training data. Moreover, we demonstrate that our approach can be used as an inverse diagnostic tool providing a confidence score associated with models and observations. The proposed framework also allows for multi-fidelity computing by making use of low-fidelity models in the online deployment of quantified data-driven models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Changes in the Ozone Chemical Regime Over the Contiguous United States Inferred By the Inversion of NOx and VOC Emissions Using Satellite Observation

To investigate changes in the ozone (O3) chemical production regime over the contiguous United States (CONUS) with accurate knowledge of concentrations of its precursors, we applied an inverse modeling technique with Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total formaldehyde (HCHO) retrieval products in the summers of 2011, 2014, and 2017, years in which United States National Emission Inventory were based. The inclusion of dynamic chemical lateral boundary conditions and lightning-induced nitric oxide emissions significantly account for the contribution of background sources in the free troposphere. Satellite-constrained nitrogen oxide (NOx) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions mitigate the discrepancy between satellite and modeled columns: the inversion suggested 2.33-2.84 (1.07-1.34) times higher NOx over the CONUS (over urban regions) and 0.28-0.81 times fewer NMVOCs emissions over the southeastern United States. The model-derived HCHO/NO2 column ratio shows gradual spatial changes in the O3 production regime near urban cores relative to previously defined threshold values representing NOx and VOC sensitive conditions. We also found apparent shifts from the NOx-saturated regime to the transition regime (or the transition regime to the NOx-limited regime) over the major cities in the western United States. In contrast, rural areas, especially in the east-southeastern United States, exhibit a decreased HCHO/NO2 column ratio by -1.30 ± 1.71 with a reduction in HCHO column primarily driven by meteorology, becoming sensitive to VOC emissions. Results show that incorporating satellite observations into numerical modeling could help policymakers implement appropriate emission control policies for O3 pollution.

HCHO/NO2 factorInverse modelingOzone chemical regi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lagrangian particle model for 3D simulation of pellets and SPI fragments in tokamaks

A 3D numerical model for the ablation of pellets and shattered pellet injection (SPI) fragments in tokamaks in the plasma disruption mitigation and fueling parameter space has been developed based on the Lagrangian particle code [R. Samulyak, X. Wang, H.-S. Chen, Lagrangian Particle Method for Compressible Fluid Dynamics, J. Comput. Phys., 362 (2018), 1-19]. The pellet code implements the low magnetic Reynolds number MHD equations, kinetic models for the electronic heating, a pellet surface ablation model, an equation of state that supports multiple ionization states, radiation, and a model for grad-B drift of the ablated material across the magnetic field. The Lagrangian particle algorithm is highly adaptive, capable of simulating a large number of fragments in 3D while eliminating numerical difficulties of dealing with the tokamak background plasma. The code has achieved good agreement with theory for spherically symmetric ablation flows. Axisymmetric simulations of neon and deuterium pellets in magnetic fields ranging from 1 to 6 Tesla have been compared with previous simulations using the FronTier code, and very good agreement has also been obtained. Furthermore, the main physics contribution of the paper is a detailed study of the influence of 3D effects, in particular grad-B drift, on pellet ablation rates and properties of ablation clouds. Smaller reductions of ablation rates in magnetic fields compared to axially symmetric simulations have been demonstrated because the ablated material is not confined to narrowing channels in the presence of grad-B drift. Contribution of various factors in the grad-B drift model has also been quantified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints

Abstract Dimension reduction techniques are an essential part of the climate analyst’s toolkit. Due to the enormous scale of climate data, dimension reduction methods are used to identify major patterns of variability within climate dynamics, to create compelling and informative visualizations, and to quantify major named modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Principal components analysis (PCA), also known as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), is the most commonly used form of dimension reduction, characterized by a remarkable confluence of attractive mathematical, statistical, and computational properties. Despite its ubiquity, PCA suffers from several difficulties relevant to climate science: high computational burden with large datasets, decreased statistical accuracy in high dimensions, and difficulties comparing across multiple datasets. In this paper, we introduce several variants of PCA that are likely to be of use in climate sciences and address these problems. Specifically, we introduce non-negative , sparse , and tensor PCA and demonstrate how each approach provides superior pattern recognition in climate data. We also discuss approaches to comparing PCA-family results within and across datasets in a domain-relevant manner. We demonstrate these approaches through an analysis of several runs of the E3SM climate model from 1991 to 1995, focusing on the simulated response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption; our findings are consistent with a recently identified stratospheric warming fingerprint associated with this type of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Weylandt, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Global Simulations of Aerosol Particle and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Number, with Implications for Cloud Droplet Formation

A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24% and -35% for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120nm, as well as -36% and -34% for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (< 0.1%) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2% (CCN(0.2)) compared to that for N3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40% during winter and 20% in summer.

cloud droplets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep reinforcement learning control for co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality in an office building

With the recent demand for decarbonization and energy efficiency, advanced HVAC control using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) becomes a promising solution. Due to its flexible structures, DRL has been successful in energy reduction for many HVAC systems. However, only a few researches applied DRL agents to manage the entire central HVAC system and control multiple components in both the water loop and the air loop, owing to its complex system structures. Moreover, those researches have not extended their applications by incorporating the indoor air quality, especially both CO2 and PM2.5concentrations, on top of energy saving and thermal comfort, as achieving those objectives simultaneously can cause multiple control conflicts. What's more, DRL agents are usually trained on the simulation environment before deployment, so another challenge is to develop an accurate but relatively simple simulator. Therefore, we propose a DRL algorithm for a central HVAC system to co-optimize energy consumption, thermal comfort, indoor CO2 level, and indoor PM2.5 level in an office building. To train the controller, we also developed a hybrid simulator that decoupled the complex system into multiple simulation models, which are calibrated separately using laboratory test data. The hybrid simulator combined the dynamics of the HVAC system, the building envelope, as well as moisture, CO2, and particulate matter transfer. Three control algorithms (rule-based, MPC, and DRL) are developed, and their performances are evaluated on the hybrid simulator environment with a realistic scenario (i.e., with stochastic noises). The test results showed that, the DRL controller can save 21.4 % of energy compared to a rule-based controller, and has improved thermal comfort, reduced indoor CO2 concentration. The MPC controller showed an 18.6 % energy saving compared to the DRL controller, mainly due to savings from comfort and indoor air quality boundary violations caused by unmeasured disturbances, and it also highlights computational challenges in real-time control due to non-linear optimization. Finally, we provide the practical considerations for designing and implementing the DRL and MPC controllers based on their respective pros and cons.

Guo, Fangzhou↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Thin tailored composite wing for civil tiltrotor

The tiltrotor aircraft is a flight vehicle which combines the efficient low speed (i.e., take-off, landing, and hover) characteristics of a helicopter with the efficient cruise speed of a turboprop airplane. A well-known example of such vehicle is the Bell-Boeing V-22 Osprey. The high cruise speed and range constraints placed on the civil tiltrotor require a relatively thin wing to increase the drag-divergence Mach number which translates into lower compressibility drag. It is required to reduce the wing maximum thickness-to-chord ratio t/c from 23% (i.e., V-22 wing) to 18%. While a reduction in wing thickness results in improved aerodynamic efficiency, it has an adverse effect on the wing structure and it tends to reduce structural stiffness. If ignored, the reduction in wing stiffness leads to susceptibility to aeroelastic and dynamic instabilities which may consequently cause a catastrophic failure. By taking advantage of the directional stiffness characteristics of composite materials the wing structure may be tailored to have the necessary stiffness, at a lower thickness, while keeping the weight low. The goal of this study is to design a wing structure for minimum weight subject to structural, dynamic and aeroelastic constraints. The structural constraints are in terms of strength and buckling allowables. The dynamic constraints are in terms of wing natural frequencies in vertical and horizontal bending and torsion. The aeroelastic constraints are in terms of frequency placement of the wing structure relative to those of the rotor system. The wing-rotor-pylon aeroelastic and dynamic interactions are limited in this design study by holding the cruise speed, rotor-pylon system, and wing geometric attributes fixed. To assure that the wing-rotor stability margins are maintained a more rigorous analysis based on a detailed model of the rotor system will need to ensue following the design study. The skin-stringer-rib type architecture is used for the wing-box structure. The design variables include upper and lower skin ply thicknesses and orientation angles, spar and rib web thicknesses and cap areas, and stringer cross-sectional areas. These design variables will allow the maximum tailoring of the structure to meet the design requirements most efficiently. Initial dynamic analysis has been conducted using MSC/NASTRAN to determine the baseline wing's frequencies and mode shapes. For the design study we intend to use the finite-element based code called WIDOWAC (Wing Design Optimization With Aeroeastic Constraints) that was developed at NASA Langley in early 1970's for airplane wing structural analysis and preliminary design. Currently, the focus is on modification and validation of this code which will be used for the civil tiltrotor design efforts.

Rais-Rohani, Masoud↗
NASA NTRS2001

Development and Validation of High Performance Unshrouded Centrifugal Impeller

The feasibility of using a two-stage unshrouded impeller turbopump to replace the current three-stage reusable launch vehicle engine shrouded impeller hydrogen pump has been evaluated from the standpoint of turbopump weight reduction and overall payload improvement. These advantages are a by-product of the higher tip speeds that an unshrouded impeller can sustain. The issues associated with the effect of unshrouded impeller tip clearance on pump efficiency and head have been evaluated with one-dimensional tools and full three-dimensional rotordynamic fluid reaction forces and coefficients have been established through time dependent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the whole 360 degree impeller with different rotor eccentricities and whirling ratios. Unlike the shrouded impeller, the unshrouded impeller forces are evaluated as the sum of the pressure forces on the blade and the pressure forces on the hub using the CFD results. The turbopump axial thrust control has been optimized by adjusting the first stage impeller backend wear ring seal diameter and diverting the second stage backend balance piston flow to the proper location. The structural integrity associated with the high tip speed has been checked by analyzing a 3D-Finite Element Model at maximum design conditions (6% higher than the design speed). This impeller was fabricated and tested in the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center water-test rig. The experimental data will be compared with the analytical predictions and presented in another paper. The experimental data provides validation data for the numerical design and analysis methodology. The validated numerical methodology can be used to help design different unshrouded impeller configurations.

Chen, Wei-Chung↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Saltzman, Barry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-phase flow numerical analysis of electrode geometry for alkaline water electrolyzers

Hydrogen is a promising component of a future energy-secure and efficient economy, but its competitiveness depends on reducing production costs. One strategy is to operate alkaline water electrolyzers at higher current densities to increase output. However, this intensifies performance losses due to gas bubble accumulation, which blocks transport pathways and deactivates electrochemically active surfaces. Enhancing bubble evacuation through electrode design is therefore essential. Previous studies have explored various approaches — such as modifying surface morphology, applying sonication or pressure modulation, and introducing surfactants — but these efforts have addressed a limited range of conditions due to the complexity of two-phase flow and electrode geometries. Experiments have also largely been focused on either cell level improvements, which lack the information necessary to isolate each contributing factor, or on modified geometries that are not relevant to practical cell operation. From a modeling perspective, conventional Eulerian multiphase models do not track the complex gas–liquid interfacial dynamics and often neglect surface tension and contact angle effects, reducing their predictive accuracy. To provide insights on the effects of different electrode geometries on the performance of alklaine water electrolyzers this work employs an immersed boundary volume-of-fluid method to simulate bubble behavior in 3D porous electrodes. Multiple base electrode geometries, typically used in practice, with varying porosity are evaluated under a constant surface gas generation rate. Simulation data is analyzed to quantify electrode gas coverage, bubble size dynamics and other relevant metrics. Results show that porosity strongly influences bubble accumulation on electrode surfaces, with higher porosity reducing gas coverage, and its not strictly dependent on the electrode geometry. However, the electrode’s base geometry significantly affects gas accumulation at the separator gap, independent of porosity. A foam electrode geometry resulted in the lowest gas coverage of all electrodes with a median volumetric gas coverage of 11%, but at the cost of a 70% reduction in active area compared with the largest surface area electrode, while gyroid electrodes showed the best trade-off between gas coverage, particularly at the separator surface, and electrochemically active area. In conclusion, the results highlight the need for holistic electrode design strategies.

Alkaline↗