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NASA NTRS1993

Comparative study of x ray and microwave emissions during solar flares

The work supported by the grant consisted of two projects. The first project involved making detailed case studies of two flares using SMM data in conjunction with ground based observations. The first flare occurred at 1454 UT on June 20, 1989 and involved the eruption of a prominence near the limb. In the study we used data from many wavelength regimes including the radio, H-alpha, hard X-rays, and soft X-rays. We used a full gyrosynchrotron code to model the apparent presence of a 1.4 GHz source early in the flare that was in the form of a large coronal loop. The model results lead us to conclude that the initial acceleration occurs in small, dense loops which also produced the flare's hard X-ray emission. We also found evidence that a source at 1.4 GHz later in the event was due to second harmonic plasma emission. This source was adjacent to a leg of the prominence and comes from a dense column of material in the magnetic structure supporting the prominence. Finally, we investigated a source of microwaves and soft X-rays, occurring approximately 10 min after the hard X-ray peak, and calculate a lower limit for the density of the source. The second flare that was studied occurred at 2156 UT on June 20, 1989 and was observed with the VLA and the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) Frequency Agile Array. We have developed a gyrosynchrotron model of the sources at flare peak using a new gyrosynchrotron approximation which is valid at very low harmonics of the gyrofrequency. We found that the accelerated particle densities of the sources decreased much more with radius from the source center than had been supposed in previous work, while the magnetic field varied less. We also used the available data to analyze a highly polarized source which appeared late in the flare. The second project involved compiling a statistical base for the relative timing of the hard X-ray peak, the turbulent and blue-shift velocities inferred from soft X-ray line emissions observed by SMM and the microwave peak as determined from ground-based observations. This timing was then used to aid the testing of newly developed global models for flares that incorporate the global magnetic topology as well as the electron dynamics that are responsible for the hard X-rays and microwaves.

Winglee, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VALENTInE: A Concept for a New Frontiers Class Long Duration In-Situ Balloon Mission to Venus

Venus and Earth are similar in bulk composition, size, density, and approximate distance from the Sun, yet Venus’s modern-day climate and surface geology is distinctly different [1]. Previous missions to Venus revealed unusual volcanic features, possible continental crust, widespread volcanic plains, a weak magnetic field [2], and insights into the Venusian atmosphere [3,4]. Unfortunately, data from these missions were limited in spatial and temporal resolution and global extent. A future mission to Venus is critical to address fundamental questions surrounding the chemical composition and dynamics of the Venusian atmosphere [5], its geologic history [6,7], its internal structure [8,9], and its habitability throughout time [10,11]. We present the Venus Air and Land Expedition: a Novel Trailblazer for In situ Exploration (VALENTInE) mission to meet this need. VALENTInE is a variable altitude balloon that will passively float in Venus’s atmosphere between 45 and 55 km altitude. VALENTInE will acquire atmospheric data at varying latitudes and longitudes in addition to mapping the surface geomorphology and mineralogy across multiple terrains. Mission Objectives: The VALENTInE mission concept is driven by four main science objectives: 1. Determine whether the driving force of the superrotation of Venus’s atmosphere is caused by horizontal or vertical momentum transport. 2. Determine whether the atmospheric composition and noble gas inventory of the Venusian atmosphere is a product of outgassing from the initial protoplanetary source or if there are significant contributions from exogenic sources. 3. Determine whether the tesserae regions (particularly Aphrodite Terra) are felsic and relatively older than surrounding regions. 4. Determine if there is any evidence of a recent dynamo preserved in the rock record of Venus. Mission Overview: A balloon architecture provides a robust system that can survive long-term in the Venusian environment while taking accurate measurements of the lower cloud deck and surface. Two prior balloon missions to Venus, VEGA 1 and VEGA 2 in 1984, have demonstrated the potential for such planetary exploration; however, these missions were short-lived (46 hr), with limited range (54 km). Our spacecraft concept consists of a battery powered balloon with a gondola and flyby carrier stage (Fig. 1). Our novel design allows for at least 15 days of atmospheric exploration, including multiple ascents and descents in the Venus atmosphere. VALENTInE is baselined to launch in 2032, cruise on solar power for 128 days, enter, descend, and inflate (EDI) into Venus’s atmosphere above Aphrodite Terra, and float in Venus’s atmosphere for a total nominal mission duration of 15 days. The balloon, able to control its altitude by changing its buoyancy, will make one full circumnavigation every 4–8 days and move poleward ~1 o latitude per day; it will be passively directed by the horizontal air currents on Venus. The balloon can only be controlled in the z direction, and the expected latitude range is ±10° from EDI. The balloon itself will be a tracer for atmospheric structures such as zonal winds [5, 12]. During the 15-day operational period, there will be five dips to 45 km for a compositional study of the lower atmosphere and geological and magnetic mapping of the surface. Dips are used to take images and measurements closer to the surface and to obtain in situ vertical atmospheric profiles between 45 and 55 km. Instruments: The VALENTInE instrument payload will allow for extensive study of the geology, atmosphere, and interior of Venus. The instrument suite consists of six instruments. The mission profile for each instrument is shown in Fig. 2. Lower Atmosphere Meteorology Analyzer (LAMA) is an atmospheric structure instrument consisting of a thermometer, barometer, and accelerometer to continuously measure temperature and pressure as a function of altitude, longitude, and latitude. TracE and Noble Gas Investigator (TENGI) is aneutral mass spectrometer used to sample the dense atmosphere. TENGI will operate continuously at 45 km and 55 km and will measure D/H ratios, as well as Ne, Ar, and O isotopic ratios. Kilometer Scale Spectral Imager (KSSI) is amultispectral imager (850-1150 nm) used to resolve surface features on the order of km. Near InfraRed Multispectral Photometer (NIRMP) is an Infrared (IR) photometer used to image the surface through the clouds to characterize mineral assemblages at five different areas of the surface. NIRMP will be operated during dwell. ELevation REConnaissance (ELREC) is a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) instrument used for measuring topography at five different areas of the surface. The ELREC data will be combined with those of NIRMP to determine mineral assemblages and how they correlate to topography. Magnetic Exploration and Interior Detective (MEID) is a magnetometer used to detect any near-surface magnetic anomalies. The magnetometer will continuously operate at all altitudes. Mission Design: The spacecraft’s propulsion system will have a wet mass of 930 kg and will be launched on an Atlas V rocket. The spacecraft will jettison the payload upon arrival in Venus’s atmosphere before decelerating to orbital velocity. Figure 2. Notional power-dip profile while the balloon is on the dayside. Risks and Challenges: Raising and lowering the spacecraft to dip beneath the haze layer require a large amount of energy. This issue was partly compensated by limiting the number of dips over the 15 day prime mission. Power needs for pumping helium are reduced by slowing the descent speed, which consequently increases spatial resolution of in situ measurements between 45 and 55 km. The main limitation for the duration of the mission is the need to carry 15 days’ worth of batteries. The bus experiences external Venusian temperatures ranging from ~27°C at 55 km altitude to ~110°C at 45 km altitude. These high atmospheric temperatures require thermal protection for the bus (instruments, electronics, and flight systems) during its descent, dwell at 45 km, and ascent. The bus is maintained at a mechanically safe temperature range of -10°C to 50°C using white external paint, multi-layer insulation (MLI), mechanical/thermal isolation (e.g. Ti, composites), and ~57 kg of Phase Change Materials (PCM). Images and spectra taken below the haze dominate the available data transmission regardless of the time spent at 45 km. Therefore, less time at the lower altitude mainly reduces the coverage of in situ measurements there. Further, we assumed an unrealistically low-density material for the helium storage tanks on the gondola. However, this issue is partially resolved if we were to jettison 75% of the spent helium storage tanks. After the entry process, the balloon volume remains mostly inflated and storage tanks are required only for reducing balloon volume in dipping to 45 km. This mission was planned against an expected New Frontiers 5 (NF5) cost cap of $1B, as the NF5 call had not yet been released. The mission we describe fits within the predicted cost cap if the flyby carrier stage, responsible for powering the spacecraft during cruise and for relaying in situ measurements back to Earth, can be contributed by another space agency. Acknowledgments: We thank the JPL Planetary Science Summer School, especially A. Nash, J. Scully, K. Mitchell, L. Lowes, and J. Armijo, and our mentors from JPL Team X. Thank you to our review panel for their insightful review. References: [1] Kane, S. et al. (2019) JGR:Ps, 124 , 2015–2028. [2] Phillips, J. L., & Russell, C. T. (1987). JGR: Space Physics , 92 (A3), 2253-2263. [3] Nakamura, M. et al. (2018) Earth Planets Space, 70 (1), 144. [4] Svedhem, H. et al. (2009) JGR:P 114 (E5). [5] Limaye et al. (2009) Decadal Survey White Paper . [6] Ivanov, M. and Head, J. (2011) PSS, 59 (13) , 1559-1600. [7] Smrekar, S. et al. (2018) Space Sci Rev, 214 (5), 88. [8] O’Rourke, J. et al. (2018) EPSL, 502 , 46-56. [9] O’Rourke J. et al. (2019) GRL , (46), 5768–5777 [10] Way, M. et al. (2016) GRL, 43 (16), 8376-8383. [11] Way, M. et al. (2020) JGR:P, 125 (5), e2019JE006276. [12] Preston, R. A. et al. (1986) Science, 231 (4744), 1414-1416.

Mission Concept↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fitting $\overline{ν}$ for Minor Pu Isotopes

After successful fitting of prompt ν for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu(n,f) using CGMF, we have moved on to the minor plutonium isotopes. Minor isotopes pose a greater challenge both because there is less data available and we do not, by default, have parametrizations in CGMF already. Initially, we had planned to mitigate these challenges—and provide consistency within CGMF—by taking a stepped approach to the optimization. Continuing from the 239 Pu work, we would then fit 241Pu(n,f) $\overline{ν}$, where there is also a number of experimental measurements, keeping consistency between the parameters that are included in the calculation for 239 Pu and 241 Pu. With these parametrizations settled, we could consistently optimize 240 Pu(n,f) $\overline{ν}$. Following that step, we would move on to 242 Pu(n,f) (and increasing neutron number) and 238 Pu(n,f) (and decreasing neutron number). By including the fissioning systems in this manner, we should be able to minimize the unknown parameters in CGMF. We were also able to develop systematics for the CGMF input parameters along the Pu isotopic chain. However, after studies in the beginning of FY23, where we found reasonable agreement between CGMF and experimental prompt neutron multiplicities for 238−242 Pu, using a compound mass dependent parametrization from, and from discussions with I. Stetcu and P. Talou, we instead performed the evaluation of all five isotopes simultaneously. For all parameters in CGMF, they are either the same for each compound nucleus, or have a dependence on the compound mass. The details of these updates are given in. This report builds upon those details. In this short report, we first give an example of how we have updated CGMF to include 240 Pu(n,f) and 242 Pu(n,f), keeping consistency with the current 239 Pu and 241 Pu calculations, but without rigorous optimization (Sec. 2). Then, we will show in Section 3 what experimental data exist for the various isotopes to provide some insight into why 241 Pu and 239 Pu are used as anchor points. The evaluation is detailed in Section 4, and the comparison between CGMF calculations using the evaluated parameters and other prompt observables besides average neutron multiplicity are discussed in Section 2.2. Finally, we present conclusions and future work in Section 5.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Orography-Influenced Riming and Secondary Ice Production and Their Effects on Precipitation Rates Using Radar Polarimetry and Doppler Spectra (CORSIPP-SAIL)

The Characterization of Orography-Influenced Riming and Secondary Ice Production and Their Effects on Precipitation Rates Using Radar Polarimetry and Doppler Spectra (CORSIPP) project was conducted to help improve the understanding of precipitation formation in orographically influenced terrain. Special focus is put on the two processes of riming and secondary ice production and their external drivers. Two instruments, a polarimetric W-band simultaneous transmission simultaneous reception (STSR) Doppler cloud radar manufactured by Radiometer Physics GmbH (RPG, instrument type RPG-FMCW-94-DP), from now on named LIMRAD94, and the video in situ snowfall sensor (VISSS), were deployed at the U. S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) site in Gothic, Colorado between November 2022 and June 2023 during the second SAIL winter. Note that the exact dates of data availability differ between the instruments. Both instruments arrived at Gothic on November 2, 2022, 09:20 local time. VISSS, described by Maahn et al., is equipped with two camera systems with telecentric lenses. The two cameras are at a 90° angle to each other. This configuration allows for size-independent measurements by capturing images of hydrometeors from two sides at a high frame rate of 250 Hz. With a minimum detection size of 200 μm, VISSS provides valuable insights into particle size, number, shape, complexity, and fall velocity. The VISSS was deployed on the grassland next to the ARM facility with the amazing help of the ARM employees on site. The setup started on November 2, 2022, and was finished on November 5, 2022, without major problems. VISSS measurements were started on November 6, 2022. LIMRAD94 was installed on a scaffolding platform near Orehouse (Gothic) on November 9, 2022, with the great help of RMBL staff. LIMRAD94 was mounted on a cold temperature scanner prototype. After a short test of the setup on November 9, 2022, the digital control of the scanner elevation stopped working for (at that time) unknown reasons. All attempts to resolve the problem failed. This malfunction made it impossible to operate LIMRAD94 in scanning mode. The scanner was then manually moved to zenith pointing mode and between November 10 and November 15, 2022, vertical observations for polarimetric calibration were performed. On November 15, 2022, after the polarimetric calibration was applied, the scanner was manually moved to 40° elevation with azimuthal view towards the Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) and measurements were continued at constant elevation. Investigation of the scanner malfunction on February 6, 2023, by Benn Schmatz revealed a disengagement between the cogwheel of the elevation motor and the cogwheel moving the scanner in elevation. This mechanical issue was temporarily solved by re-engaging the cogwheels. This made the scanner operational again for about four weeks, until mechanical force disengaged the cogwheels again on March 15, 2023. This repeated scanner failure remained undetected for about three weeks until April 8, 2023; during this time the scanner was stuck at 72° elevation. However, the radar software continued to produce data files falsely indicating that the scanner was still operational. After the scanner failure was noticed, scanning was stopped again, and we returned to constant elevation measurements. On May 15, 2023, the cogwheels of the elevation motor were secured with additional screws sent by the manufacturer. At some point in May, the cogwheels of the azimuth motor were also disengaged by mechanical force, which still allowed for range height indicator (RHI) but no plan position indicator (PPI) scans in the last weeks of the campaign. The azimuth motor was repaired in Germany after the end of the campaign. Throughout the campaign, RMBL and ARM staff kept the radar and the VISSS free of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relaxation behavior in low-frequency complex conductivity of sands caused by bacterial growth and biofilm formation by Shewanella oneidensis under a high-salinity condition

Complex electrical conductivity is increasingly used to monitor subsurface processes associated with microbial activities because microbial cells mostly have surface charges and thus electrical double layers. Although highly saline environments are frequently encountered in coastal and marine sediments, there are limited data available on the complex conductivity associated with microbial activities under a high-salinity condition. Therefore, we have developed the spectral responses of complex conductivity of sand associated with bacterial growth and biofilm formation under a highly saline condition of approximately 1% salinity and approximately 2 S/m pore water conductivity with an emphasis on relaxation behavior. A column test is performed, in which the model bacteria Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 are stimulated for cell growth and biofilm formation in a sand pack, whereas the complex conductivity is monitored from 0.01 Hz to 10 kHz. The test results indicate that the real conductivity increases in the early stage due to the microbial metabolites and the increased surface conduction with cell growth but soon begin to decrease because of the reduction of charge passages due to bioclogging. However, the imaginary conductivity significantly increases with time, and clear bell-shaped relaxation behaviors are observed with the peak frequency of 0.1–1 Hz, associated with the double-layer polarization of cells and electrically conductive pili and biofilms. The Cole-Cole relaxation model appears to capture such relaxation behaviors well, and the modeling results indicate gradual increases in normalized chargeability and decreases in relaxation time during bacterial growth and biofilm formation in the highly saline condition. Comparison with previous literature confirms that the high-salinity condition further increases the normalized chargeability, whereas it suppresses the phase shift and thus the imaginary conductivity. Our results suggest that the complex conductivity can effectively capture microbial biomass formation in sands under a highly saline condition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration of the Diffusivity Predictions of Centipede Using Approximate Bayesian Computation and Applications in Nyx (Engineering Scale) and Xolotl-MARMOT (Meso-Scale) Simulations

Fission gas evolution and release in UO 2 nuclear fuel are important fuel performance metrics and occur in several distinct stages: 1) nucleation, growth and resolution of intra-granular bubbles, 2) diffusion to grain boundaries and 3) nucleation and growth of bubbles at grain boundaries, which eventually form a connected network (percolation) enabling release of gas from grain boundaries through connections to triple junctions, grain edges or free surfaces. The NE-SciDAC project is developing several computational tools to model this problem, which are connected in a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The information transfer in the multi-scale framework is a critical step that, in addition to best-estimates, should include uncertainty quantification. Despite taking a first-principles multi-scale approach, there is a need to perform parameter calibration to ensure consistency with available experimental data. In the present study, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter calibration is demonstrated for one of the lower length scale codes in the multi-scale framework (Centipede) and then the results, including instances of the propagated uncertainties, are used in other codes within the framework, specifically Nyx and Xolotl-MARMOT. We calibrated the model parameters in Centipede, a computer code used to predict diffusivities of uranium (U) and xenon (Xe) in the context of the simulation of fission gas in uranium oxide (UO 2 ) nuclear fuel. The Centipede code depends on 183 parameters, all of which are subject to uncertainty. The three data sets used in our calibration effort are taken from the literature. This data is available as a set of measurements, including measurement errors. Our goal is to calibrate a statistical model that predicts both the value of the measurement and the uncertainty associated with the measurement. We perform a Bayesian calibration of the model parameters using a dedicated approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) likelihood function. To avoid excessive computational costs, we replace the expensive Centipede simulation code by a higher-order surrogate model, constructed using only the 9 most important parameters. These important parameters are identified by a preliminary global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study. Among the important parameters are T0 (the temperature at which UO 2 is perfectly stoichiometric) and Hf_pO2 (the temperature dependence of the oxygen (O) partial pressure) that should be considered as operating conditions to be estimated along with the other parameters. We consider two different cases: one where we define one set of these operating conditions for all data sets, and one where we define distinct operating condition parameters for each data set. The Xe diffusivities predicted by the latter case show distinct features that could not be observed in the former. Next, we use the diffusivity predictions by Centipede as input to Nyx, a reduced order fuel performance code focused on gas behavior alone, in order to estimate quantities associated with inter-granular bubble formation at conditions specified by the experiments. Finally, the diffusivities obtained from the calibrated Centipede runs were used in coupled Xolotl-MARMOT simulations of intra- and inter-granular gas evolution. The results are compared to simulations using the baseline diffusivities from Turnbull et al.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal economic operation of liquid petroleum products pipeline systems

The majority of overland transport needs for crude petroleum and refined petroleum products are met using pipelines. Numerous studies have developed optimization methods for design of these systems in order to minimize construction costs while meeting capacity requirements. Here, we formulate problems to optimize the operations of existing single liquid commodity pipeline systems subject to physical flow and pump engineering constraints. The objectives are to maximize the economic value created for users of the system and to minimize operating costs. We present a general computational method for this class of continuous, non-convex nonlinear programs, and examine the use of pump operating settings and flow allocations as decision variables. Furthermore, the approach is applied to compute optimal operating regimes and perform engineering economic sensitivity analyses for a case study of a crude oil pipeline developed using publicly available data.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utilization of Data Augmentation Techniques in Automated Inspection Systems for Defect Detection in Metals With Limited Data

Accurate identification of defects on metal surfaces is of great interest to many industry sectors, such as the automotive and aerospace industries. In contrast to conventional manual inspection techniques, recent automated inspection systems employ deep learning models trained to detect defects rapidly and precisely. The development of these models often requires a substantial image dataset to acquire adequate knowledge of defect features and enhance their predictive accuracy. When data is limited, augmentation techniques are often used to improve the precision and accuracy of defect detection systems. This study examined the prediction performance of two object detection models, namely Faster Region‐based Convolutional Neural Network (Faster R‐CNN) and You Only Look Once version 8 (YOLOv8), to identify dent defects in limited images of cast iron cylinder head surfaces. The original image set contains 46 images with 563 dents. To overcome limited data availability, common image augmentation techniques along with a copy‐paste method were applied. Results show that standard augmentation improved YOLOv8 accuracy by 8.00% and average precision (AP) by 3.00%. On the other hand, the copy‐paste technique achieved a 20.00% increase in accuracy and a 1% increase in AP with just 200 synthetic dents. Furthermore, these results provide support for using the copy‐paste augmentation strategy to enhance defect detection performance, with a limited dataset, contributing to more accurate defect identification in remanufacturing processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of a visual interpretation method for tau-PET with 18 F-flortaucipir

Introduction: Positron emission tomography targeting tau (tau-PET) is a promising diagnostic tool for the identification of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Currently available data rely on quantitative measures, and a visual interpretation method, critical for clinical translation, is needed. Methods: In this work, we developed a visual interpretation method for 18 F-flortaucipir tau-PET and tested it on 274 individuals (cognitively normal controls, patients with mild cognitive impairment [MCI], AD dementia, and non-AD diagnoses). Two readers interpreted 18 F-flortaucipir PET using two complementary indices: a global visual score and a visual distribution pattern. Results: Global visual scores were reliable, correlated with global cortical 18 F-flortaucipir standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) and were associated with clinical diagnosis and amyloid status. The AD-like 18 F-flortaucipir pattern had good sensitivity and specificity to identify amyloid-positive patients with AD dementia or MCI. Discussion: This 18 F-flortaucipir visual rating scheme is associated with SUVR quantification, clinical diagnosis, and amyloid status, and constitutes a promising approach to tau measurement in clinical settings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Isopropanol dehydration reaction rate kinetics measurement using H 2 O time histories

H 2 O formation during thermal decomposition of isopropanol was measured behind reflected shock waves at temperatures ranging from 1127 to 1621 K at an average pressure of 1.42 atm using a laser absorption technique. Of the five modern chemical kinetics models used to compare the H 2 O time histories, the model from Li et al (Combust. Flame 2019;207:171-185) showed the best overall agreement. Sensitivity and rate of production analyses using the Li et al model (as well as those from AramcoMech 3.0, CRECK, and Togbe et al (Energy Fuel. 2011;25:676-683)) showed unimolecular dehydration of isopropanol, iC 3 H 7 OH ⇌ H 2 O + C 3 H 6 (R1), is nearly the sole reaction controlling H2O production at early times, allowing for an a priori measurement of the forward rate constant k 1 . The Arrhenius expression k1 (s –1 ) = 2.60 × 10 13 exp(-31 120 K/T) was determined to represent best the data from this study. According to the models and previous experimental investigations, the pressure investigated is well within the high-pressure limit (HPL) for this reaction. Additional, higher-pressure experiments also confirmed the HPL assumption. An uncertainty analysis was performed by varying secondary reactions within their uncertainties and examining their effect on the overall prediction, establishing an uncertainty within ±20% for all but the highest temperature cases, which have a maximum uncertainty of ±40%. Experiments conducted with a radical trapper, toluene, showed little influence from radical chemistry, suggesting this estimated uncertainty is fairly conservative. Experimental data from Heyne et al (Z Phys Chem. 2015;229:881-907) were found to be in good agreement with the rate measurements from this study and, therefore, a second Arrhenius expression, k 1 (s –1 ) = 2.11 × 10 13 exp(-30 820 K/T), was found to represent both datasets well. This second expression has a larger temperature range of 976-1621 K. Here the present study provides the first high-temperature data collected for this reaction, adding to the limited data available for isopropanol in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Numerical Atmospheric Models

In this study, a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water-management infrastructure design. Here, this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville, Tennessee (U.S.), in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to the IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15 km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, whereas NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5 km level. The recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15 km or 15–5 km nested grids, Morrison microphysics, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm event forecasting and analyses for design, operations, and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

Chen, Xiaodong↗
DOE OSTI2023

W ± -boson production in p–Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} $ = 8.16 TeV and Pb–Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

The production of the W ± bosons measured in p–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon–nucleon collision $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 8.16 TeV and Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV with ALICE at the LHC is presented. The W ± bosons are measured via their muonic decay channel, with the muon reconstructed in the pseudorapidity region -4 < η$_{lab}^{μ}$ < -2.5 with transverse momentum p$_{T}^{μ}$ > 10 GeV/c. While in Pb–Pb collisions the measurements are performed in the forward (2.5 < y$_{cms}^{μ}$ < 4) rapidity region, in p–Pb collisions, where the centre-of-mass frame is boosted with respect to the laboratory frame, the measurements are performed in the backward (-4.46 < y$_{cms}^{μ}$ < -2.96) and forward (2.03 < y$_{cms}^{μ}$ < 3.53) rapidity regions. The W - and W + production cross sections, lepton-charge asymmetry, and nuclear modification factors are evaluated as a function of the muon rapidity. In order to study the production as a function of the p–Pb collision centrality, the production cross sections of the W - and W + bosons are combined and normalised to the average number of binary nucleon–nucleon collision $\langle$N coll $\rangle$. In Pb–Pb collisions, the same measurements are presented as a function of the collision centrality. Study of the binary scaling of the W ± -boson cross sections in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions is also reported. The results are compared with perturbative QCD calculations, with and without nuclear modifications of the Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs), as well as with available data at the LHC. Significant deviations from the theory expectations are found in the two collision systems, indicating that the measurements can provide additional constraints for the determination of nuclear PDFs and in particular of the light-quark distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the intermediate Jacobian of M5-branes

Abstract We study Euclidean M5-branes wrapping vertical divisors in elliptic Calabi-Yau fourfold compactifications of M/F-theory that admit a Sen limit. We construct these Calabi-Yau fourfolds as elliptic fibrations over coordinate flip O3/O7 orientifolds of toric hypersurface Calabi-Yau threefolds. We devise a method to analyze the Hodge structure (and hence the dimension of the intermediate Jacobian) of vertical divisors in these fourfolds, using only the data available from a type IIB compactification on the O3/O7 Calabi-Yau orientifold. Our method utilizes simple combinatorial formulae (that we prove) for the equivariant Hodge numbers of the Calabi-Yau orientifolds and their prime toric divisors, along with a formula for the Euler characteristic of vertical divisors in the corresponding elliptic Calabi-Yau fourfold. Our formula for the Euler characteristic includes a conjectured correction term that accounts for the contributions of pointlike terminal ℤ 2 singularities corresponding to perturbative O3-planes. We check our conjecture in a number of explicit examples and find perfect agreement with the results of direct computations.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased inflammation as well as decreased endoplasmic reticulum stress and translation differentiate pancreatic islets from donors with pre-symptomatic stage 1 type 1 diabetes and non-diabetic donors

Aims/hypothesis Progression to type 1 diabetes is associated with genetic factors, the presence of autoantibodies and a decline in beta cell insulin secretion in response to glucose. Very little is known regarding the molecular changes that occur in human insulin-secreting beta cells prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes. Herein, we applied an unbiased proteomics approach to identify changes in proteins and potential mechanisms of islet dysfunction in islet-autoantibody-positive organ donors with pre-symptomatic stage 1 type 1 diabetes (HbA1c ≤42 mmol/mol [6.0%]). We aimed to identify pathways in islets that are indicative of beta cell dysfunction. Methods Multiple islet sections were collected through laser microdissection of frozen pancreatic tissues from organ donors positive for single or multiple islet autoantibodies (AAb + , n=5), and age (±2 years)- and sex-matched non-diabetic (ND) control donors (n=5) obtained from the Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD). Islet sections were subjected to MS-based proteomics and analysed with label-free quantification followed by pathway and functional annotations. Results Analyses resulted in ~4500 proteins identified with low false discovery rate (<1%), with 2165 proteins reliably quantified in every islet sample. We observed large inter-donor variations that presented a challenge for statistical analysis of proteome changes between donor groups. We therefore focused on only the donors with stage 1 type 1 diabetes who were positive for multiple autoantibodies (mAAb + , n=3) and genetic risk compared with their matched ND controls (n=3) for the final statistical analysis. Approximately 10% of the proteins (n=202) were significantly different (unadjusted p<0.025, q<0.15) for mAAb + vs ND donor islets. The significant alterations clustered around major functions for upregulation in the immune response and glycolysis, and downregulation in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress response as well as protein translation and synthesis. The observed proteome changes were further supported by several independent published datasets, including a proteomics dataset from in vitro proinflammatory cytokine-treated human islets and single-cell RNA-seq datasets from AAb + individuals. Conclusions/interpretation In situ human islet proteome alterations in stage 1 type 1 diabetes centred around several major functional categories, including an expected increase in immune response genes (elevated antigen presentation/HLA), with decreases in protein synthesis and ER stress response, as well as compensatory metabolic response. The dataset serves as a proteomics resource for future studies on beta cell changes during type 1 diabetes progression and pathogenesis. Data availability The LC-MS raw datasets that support the findings of this study have been deposited in the online repository: MassIVE (https://massive.ucsd.edu/ProteoSAFe/static/massive.jsp) with accession no. MSV000090212.

Autoantibody-positive↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantitative concentration measurements in a turbulent helium jet using rainbow schlieren deflectometry

Rainbow schlieren deflectometry (RSD) is applied to acquire quantitative concentration measurements in a turbulent environment for the first time. RSD methodology is developed and validated using Rayleigh scattering data available in the literature. Experiments were performed in an initially laminar, momentum-driven helium jet injected into ambient air. Full-field measurements are acquired that span the laminar, transition, and fully turbulent regions of the jet. Furthermore, the RSD results are shown to provide accurate measurements in each region and also confirm the self-similar nature of the fully turbulent jet. Analysis shows that the transition from laminar to turbulent flow occurs across an axial span that decreases with increasing Reynolds number. Experiments with a long exposure time were conducted to evaluate the limitations of hardware averaging of the RSD signal in comparison with software averaging.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison and multi-model inference of excess risks models for radiation-related solid cancer

In assessments of detrimental health risks from exposures to ionising radiation, many forms of risk to dose–response models are available in the literature. The usual practice is to base risk assessment on one specific model and ignore model uncertainty. The analysis illustrated here considers model uncertainty for the outcome all solid cancer incidence, when modelled as a function of colon organ dose, using the most recent publicly available data from the Life Span Study on atomic bomb survivors of Japan. Seven recent publications reporting all solid cancer risk models currently deemed plausible by the scientific community have been included in a model averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model. The models have been estimated with different baselines and presented for males and females at various attained ages and ages at exposure, to obtain specially computed model-averaged Excess Relative Risks (ERR) and Excess Absolute Risks (EAR). Monte Carlo simulated estimation of uncertainty on excess risks was accounted for by applying realisations including correlations in the risk model parameters. Three models were found to weight the model-averaged risks most strongly depending on the baseline and information criteria used for the weighting. Fitting all excess risk models with the same baseline, one model dominates for both information criteria considered in this study. Based on the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling

Complex processes govern spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation within the high-mountainous headwater regions (commonly known as the upper Indus basin (UIB)), of the Indus River basin of Pakistan. Reliable precipitation simulations particularly over the UIB present a major scientific challenge due to regional complexity and inadequate observational coverage. Here, we present a statistical downscaling approach to model observed precipitation of the entire Indus basin, with a focus on UIB within available data constraints. Taking advantage of recent high altitude (HA) observatories, we perform precipitation regionalization using K-means cluster analysis to demonstrate effectiveness of low-altitude stations to provide useful precipitation inferences over more uncertain and hydrologically important HA of the UIB. We further employ generalized linear models (GLM) with gamma and Tweedie distributions to identify major dynamic and thermodynamic drivers from a reanalysis dataset within a robust cross-validation framework that explain observed spatiotemporal precipitation patterns across the Indus basin. Final statistical models demonstrate higher predictability to resolve precipitation variability over wetter southern Himalayans and different lower Indus regions, by mainly using different dynamic predictors. The modeling framework also shows an adequate performance over more complex and uncertain trans-Himalayans and the northwestern regions of the UIB, particularly during the seasons dominated by the westerly circulations. However, the cryosphere-dominated trans-Himalayan regions, which largely govern the basin hydrology, require relatively complex models that contain dynamic and thermodynamic circulations. Furthermore, we also analyzed relevant atmospheric circulations during precipitation anomalies over the UIB, to evaluate physical consistency of the statistical models, as an additional measure of reliability. Overall, our results suggest that such circulation-based statistical downscaling has the potential to improve our understanding towards distinct features of the regional-scale precipitation across the upper and lower Indus basin. Additionally, such understanding should help to assess the response of this complex, data-scarce, and climate-sensitive river basin amid future climatic changes, to serve communal and scientific interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗