Numerical simulation of a methane-oxygen rotating detonation rocket engine
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Energy & Fuels↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “variational analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Observation and Numerical Simulation of Cold Ions Energized by EMIC Waves
This is the first report of significant energization (up to 7,000 eV) of low-energy He + ions, which occurred simultaneously with H-band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave activity, in a direction mostly perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field. The event was detected by the Arase satellite in the dayside plasmatrough region off the magnetic equator on 15 May 2019. The peak energy of the He + flux enhancements is mostly above 1,000 eV. At some interval, the He + ions are energized up to ~7,000 eV. The H-band waves are excited in a frequency band between the local crossover and helium gyrofrequencies and are close to a linear polarization state with weakly left-handed or right-handed polarization. The normal angle of the waves exhibits significant variation between 0° and 80°, indicating a non-parallel propagation. Here, we run a hybrid code with parameters estimated from the Arase observations to examine the He + energization. The simulations show that cold He + ions are energized up to more than 1,000 eV, similar to the spacecraft observations. From the analysis of the simulated wave fields and cold plasma motions, we found that the ratio of the wave frequency to He + gyrofrequency is a primary factor for transverse energization of cold He + ions. As a consequence of the numerical analysis, we suggest that the significant transverse energization of He + ions observed by Arase is attributed to H-band EMIC waves excited near the local helium gyrofrequency.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion
Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.
Abolt, C. J.↗
The GAPS programme at TNG
Neptunes represent one of the main types of exoplanets and have chemical-physical characteristics halfway between rocky and gas giant planets. Therefore, their characterization is important for understanding and constraining both the formation mechanisms and the evolution patterns of planets. We investigate the exoplanet candidate TOI-1422 b, which was discovered by the TESS space telescope around the high proper-motion G2 V star TOI-1422 (V = 10.6 mag), 155 pc away, with the primary goal of confirming its planetary nature and characterising its properties. We monitored TOI-1422 with the HARPS-N spectrograph for 1.5 yr to precisely quantify its radial velocity (RV) variation. We analyse these RV measurements jointly with TESS photometry and check for blended companions through high-spatial resolution images using the AstraLux instrument. We estimate that the parent star has a radius of R$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 R ⊙ , and a mass of M$_\star$ = 1.019 -0.013 +0.014 M ⊙ . Our analysis confirms the planetary nature of TOI-1422 b and also suggests the presence of a Neptune-mass planet on a more distant orbit, the candidate TOI-1422 c, which is not detected in TESS light curves. The inner planet, TOI-1422 b, orbits on a period of P b = 12.9972 ± 0.0006 days and has an equilibrium temperature of T eq,b = 867 ± 17 K. With a radius of R b = 3.96 -0.11 +0.13 R ⊕ , a mass of M b = 9.0 -2.0 +2.3 M ⊕ and, consequently, a density of ρ b = 0.795 -0.235 +0.290 g cm -3 , it can be considered a warm Neptune-sized planet. Compared to other exoplanets of a similar mass range, TOI-1422 b is among the most inflated, and we expect this planet to have an extensive gaseous envelope that surrounds a core with a mass fraction around 10% – 25% of the total mass of the planet. The outer non-transiting planet candidate, TOI-1422 c, has an orbital period of P c = 29.29 -0.20 +0.21 days, a minimum mass, M c sin i, of 11.1 -2.3 +2.6 M ⊕ , an equilibrium temperature of T eq,c = 661 ± 13 K and, therefore, if confirmed, could be considered as another warm Neptune.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Evaluation of thermodynamic closure models for partially reacted two-phase mixture of condensed phase explosives
One of the key fundamental issues that is crucial in the continuum modeling of reactive flow phenomena is the thermodynamically consistent description of reaction mixture properties. To define the mixture properties, thermodynamic closure rules that relate the properties of the individual reaction components to the mixture properties are required. In the context of reactive two-phase modeling approaches, various strategies to define the thermodynamic closures have been adopted such as pressure temperature (PT) equilibrium between the individual reaction components, pressure (specific) volume (PV) equilibrium, etc. The choice of closure rules determines the relative distribution of specific volume and energy across the reaction components that comprise the mixture. Therefore, depending on the choice of the closure, the mixture thermodynamic behavior can vary. The present work examines the effect of different closure approaches on the thermodynamic properties of the reaction mixture. The analysis is performed for a condensed phase HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) based plastic bonded explosive (PBX) 9501 explosive using four different thermodynamic closures, viz., PT equilibrium, PV equilibrium, volume temperature (VT) equilibrium, and pressure (P) equilibrium with reactants on an isentrope. Furthermore, the relative variations in the thermodynamic properties of the mixture are analyzed and compared under both compression and expansion loading regimes. It is shown that out of the four closure models, only PT equilibrium and P equilibrium closures lead to a thermodynamically accurate description of the mixture under both compression and expansion.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
Late growth of early-type galaxies in low-z massive clusters
ABSTRACT We study a sample of 936 early-type galaxies (ETGs) located in 48 low-z regular galaxy clusters with M200 ≥ 1014 M⊙ at z < 0.1. We examine variations in the concentration index, radius, and colour gradient of ETGs as a function of their stellar mass and loci in the projected phase space (PPS) of the clusters. We aim to understand the environmental influence on the growth of ETGs according to the time since infall into their host clusters. Our analysis indicates a significant change in the behaviour of the concentration index C and colour gradient around $M_{\ast } \approx 2\times 10^{11} ~M_\odot \equiv \tilde{M}_{\ast }$. Objects less massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$ present a slight growth of C with M*, with negative and approximately constant colour gradients in all regions of the PPS. Objects more massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$ present a slight decrease of C with M*, with colour gradients becoming less negative and approaching zero. We also find that objects more massive than $\tilde{M}_{\ast }$, in all PPS regions, have smaller R90 for a given R50, suggesting a smaller external growth in these objects or even a shrinkage possibly due to tidal stripping. Finally, we estimate different dark matter fractions for galaxies in different regions of the PPS, with the ancient satellites having the largest fractions, fDM ≈ 65 per cent. These results favour a scenario where cluster ETGs experience environmental influence the longer they remain and the deeper into the gravitational potential they lie, indicating a combination of tidal stripping + harassment, which predominate during infall, followed by mergers + feedback effects affecting the late growth of ancient satellites and BCGs.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Astrometry in two-photon interferometry using an Earth rotation fringe scan
Optical interferometers may not require a phase-stable optical link between the stations if instead sources of quantum-mechanically entangled pairs could be provided to them, enabling long baselines. We developed a new variation of this idea, proposing that photons from two different astronomical sources could be interfered at two decoupled stations. Interference products can then be calculated in post-processing or requiring only a slow, classical connection between stations. In this work, we investigated practical feasibility of this approach. We developed a Bayesian analysis method for the earth rotation fringe scanning technique and showed that in the limit of high signal-to-noise ratio it reproduced the results from a simple Fisher matrix analysis. Here we identify candidate stair pairs in the northern hemisphere, where this technique could be applied. With two telescopes with an effective collecting area of ~ 2 m 2 , we could detect fringing and measure the astrometric separation of the sources at ~100 μas precision in a few hours of observations, in agreement with previous estimates.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Conceptual Design of 20 T Hybrid Accelerator Dipole Magnets
Hybrid magnets are currently under consideration as an economically viable option towards 20 T dipole magnets for next generation of particle accelerators. In these magnets, High Temperature Superconducting (HTS) materials are used in the high field part of the coil with so-called insert coils, and Low Temperature Superconductors (LTS) like Nb 3 Sn and Nb-Ti superconductors are used in the lower field region with so-called outsert coils. The attractiveness of the hybrid option lays on the fact that, on the one hand, the 20 T field level is beyond the Nb 3 Sn practical limits of 15-16 T for accelerator magnets and can be achieved only via HTS materials; on the other hand, the high cost of HTS superconductors compared to LTS superconductors makes it advantageous exploring a hybrid approach, where the HTS portion of the coil is minimized. Here we present in this paper an overview of different design options aimed at generating 20 T field in a 50 mm clear aperture. The coil layouts investigated include the Cos-theta design (CT), with its variations to reduce the conductor peak stress, namely the Canted Cos-theta design (CCT) and the Stress Management Cos-theta design (SMCT), and, in addition, the Block-type design (BL) including a form of stress management and the Common-Coil design (CC). Results from a magnetic and mechanical analysis are discussed, with particular focus on the comparison between the different options regarding quantity of superconducting material, field quality, conductor peak stress, and quench protection.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Improved Parametric Models for Explosion Pressure Signals Derived From Large Datasets
Accurate recording and characterization of explosion-induced pressure signals are key components of the forensic analysis of explosion events in the atmosphere. Parametric overpressure models based on several key waveform features (peak overpressure, positive pulse duration, and impulse) are widely used to estimate explosion energy in terms of trinitrotoluene equivalent yield. However, those models are often developed by a limited dataset, including only a few events or recordings at relatively short propagation distances. Here, we develop empirical waveform-parameter models based on a regression analysis of a large set of data curated from four chemical explosion experiments including 16 detonations. We measured peak overpressure and impulse for positive and negative phases from 1000 pressure signals recorded at local ranges (<20 km) with scaled distance up to 8000 m/kg 1/3 . Additionally, the measured waveform parameters showed large variation with respect to observing distances indicating the effects of atmospheric propagation. In this study, a second-order polynomial model was used in a least-squares regression to account for those propagation effects and to improve data fitting. In addition to model parameters for waveform features, we also determined range-dependent model uncertainties based on data variance. The model uncertainty represents the prediction error of our models and can be critical to evaluating the uncertainty of yield estimate.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Synthetic Calcium Carbonate Production by Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Mineralization of Industrial Waste Brines
The global scale of CO 2 emission has crossed 36 B tons, and the United State represents 14% of the total emissions. In light of the high cost associated with current CO 2 capture processes ($60-to-150 per ton of CO 2 ), carbon capture and utilization (CCU), wherein CO 2 is converted to beneficial products, provides a pragmatic path to overcome the economic barrier for CO 2 emissions control. In particular, CO 2 mineralization offers an attractive route as it produces high-value mineral carbonates that sequester CO 2 in a stable form. For instance, fine precipitated calcium carbonate, a valuable product with unit price in the range of $230-280/t and a global market projected to reach 99 M tons in 2020, can be produced by capturing CO 2 within aqueous Ca 2+ solution. However, two critical challenges need to be overcome—(i) the need for costly processes such as electrolysis or addition of alkali hydroxides to maintain alkalinity during mineralization, and (ii) the geographic availability of Ca-rich solutions (or brines) which often renders efficient integration with power plants impractical. To simultaneously address these challenges, this project developed two novel routes to enable carbonate production based on efficient CO 2 mineralization. In one variation, the project developed a new alkaline carbonation process to capture CO 2 and produce calcite precipitates from coal ashes. Herein, coal ash is carbonated first in a sodium carbonate solution. The carbonation reaction produces sodium hydroxide and raises the solution pH. This high-pH hydroxide solution is then used for CO 2 capture, which converts the sodium hydroxide solution back to sodium carbonate to repeat the carbonation cycle. The carbonated ash residue is refined with a CO 2 pressure swing step to produce high-purity precipitated calcium carbonate. In another variation, Ca-rich produced water brine serves as the Ca-source to mineralize CO 2 . An H + /Na + ion-exchange cycle was designed to provision alkalinity during mineralization and regenerate the ion-exchange reagent in brines with high salinity. Ca-depleted brines can then be treated within a centralized water treatment facility. Both variations beneficially utilize reject streams—such as coal ashes and brines from oil and gas extraction or CO 2 storage operations—that are available at substantial quantities in the vicinity of coal power plants within the U.S. In addition to technology development, this project included techno-economic and life-cycle analysis to identify technically and economically appropriate solutions for power plants in different geographic locations. Taken together, the project provides a unique route to integrate CO 2 emissions control and waste handling/treatment for coal power plants, while producing a high-value product to offset the economic burden associated with waste management. The developed processes utilize post-desulfurization flue gas from coal-fired power plants as is. The CO 2 conversion reactions are performed in alkaline brines at ambient pressure from the flue gas, thereby minimizing the energy burden. By beneficiation of industrial waste streams with low energy input, the processes offers significant technical advantages in energy and CO 2 footprint over the current paradigm of precipitated calcium carbonate production, which involves calcination of limestone at processing temperatures in excess of 800 °C. Overall, this project developed viable CO 2 mineralization processes while strategically maximizing the economic benefit.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Application of Electromagnetic Methods for Reservoir Monitoring with Emphasis on Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage
The Controlled-Source ElectroMagnetic (CSEM) method provides crucial information about reservoir fluids and their spatial distribution. Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage, enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal exploration, and lithium exploration are ideal applications for the CSEM method. The versatility of CSEM permits its customization to specific reservoir objectives by selecting the appropriate components of a multi-component system. To effectively tailor the CSEM approach, it is essential to determine whether the primary target reservoir is resistive or conductive. This task is relatively straightforward in CO2 monitoring, where the injected fluid is resistive. However, for scenarios involving brine-saturated (water-wet) or oil-wet (carbon capture, utilization, and storage—CCUS) reservoirs, consideration must also be given to conductive reservoir components. The optimization of data acquisition before the survey involves analyzing target parameters and the sensitivity of multi-component CSEM. This optimization process typically includes on-site noise measurements and 3D anisotropic modeling. Based on our experience, subsequent surveys tend to proceed smoothly, yielding robust measurements that align with scientific objectives. Other critical aspects to be considered are using magnetotelluric (MT) measurements to define the overall background resistivities and integrating real-time quality assurance during data acquisition with 3D modeling. This integration allows the fine tuning of acquisition parameters such as acquisition time and necessary repeats. As a result, data can be examined in real-time to assess subsurface information content while the acquisition is ongoing. Consequently, high-quality data sets are usually obtained for subsequent processing and initial interpretation with minimal user intervention. The implementation of sensitivity analysis during the inversion process plays a pivotal role in ensuring that the acquired data accurately respond to the target reservoirs’ expected depth range. To elucidate these concepts, we present an illustrative example from a CO2 storage site in North Dakota, USA, wherein the long-offset transient electromagnetic method (LOTEM), a variation of the CSEM method, and the MT method were utilized. This example showcases how surface measurements attain appropriately upscaled log-scale sensitivity. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the CSEM and MT methods was examined in other case histories, where the target reservoirs exhibited conductive properties, such as those encountered in enhanced oil recovery (EOR), geothermal, and lithium exploration applications. The same equipment specifications were utilized for CSEM and MT surveys across all case studies.
Barajas-Olalde, César↗
Understanding Type Ia Supernova Distance Biases by Simulating Spectral Variations
In the next decade, transient searches from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will increase the sample of known Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from ~10 3 to 10 5 . With this reduction of statistical uncertainties on cosmological measurements, new methods are needed to reduce systematic uncertainties. Here, characterizing the underlying spectroscopic evolution of SN Ia remains a major systematic uncertainty in current cosmological analyses, motivating a new simulation tool for the next era of SN Ia cosmology: Build Your Own Spectral Energy Distribution (byosed). byosed is used within the SNANA framework to simulate light curves by applying spectral variations to model SEDs, enabling flexible testing of possible systematic shifts in SN Ia distance measurements. We test the framework by comparing a nominal Roman SN Ia survey simulation using a baseline SED model to simulations using SEDs perturbed with byosed, and investigating the impact of ignoring specific SED features in the analysis. These features include semiempirical models of two possible, predicted relationships: between SN ejecta velocity and light-curve observables, and a redshift-dependent relationship between SN Hubble residuals and host-galaxy mass. We analyze each byosed simulation using the SALT2 and BEAMS with Bias Corrections framework, and estimate changes in the measured value of the dark-energy equation-of-state parameter, w. We find a difference of Δw = –0.023 for SN velocity and Δw = 0.021 for redshift-evolving host mass when compared to simulations without these features. By using byosed for SN Ia cosmology simulations, future analyses (e.g., the Rubin and Roman SN Ia samples) will have greater flexibility to constrain or reduce such SN Ia modeling uncertainties.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Impacts of Initial Ca/P on Amorphous Calcium Phosphate
Amorphous calcium phosphate (ACP) is a metastable phase in the crystallization pathway of calcium phosphates. Understanding its chemical and structural properties could provide critical insights into biomineralization mechanisms. Of particular interest is the impact of the initial Ca/P on the structure of ACP. Further, the influence of Ca/P on the size, precipitate chemistry, and transformation of ACP is crucial to understanding the metastability of amorphous phosphates. In situ pair distribution function (PDF) analysis results 5 min after mixing show that the Ca-P bonding geometry varies from predominantly monodentate, to mixed monodentate and bidentate, to predominantly bidentate as Ca/P increases from 0.2 to 5.0. This relationship is consistent across a pH range of 6-11. Samples with only monodentate Ca-P geometries transform directly to hydroxylapatite, while samples some or all bidentate geometries form brushite. Regardless of the initial ratio, the Ca/P of precipitates is close to 1.0. In situ small-angle X-ray scattering shows particle size increases with increasing Ca/P. This is the first evidence of structural variations in ACP and is directly linked to system chemistry. Finally, synthesis of ACP with monodentate Ca-P geometries is a promising method to control the crystallization pathway to form hydroxylapatite at circumneutral pH without stabilizing ions.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
The HTR-Proteus Benchmark: Analysis and Use as a Verification and Validation Case
This presentation outlines the evaluation and application of the HTR-Proteus benchmark as a verification and validation (V&V) case for advanced reactor modeling tools. The work supports the U.S. Department of Energy’s HALEU Availability Program (HAP) and the joint DOE/NRC DNCSH project, which aims to reduce criticality safety uncertainties in commercial-scale HALEU fuel cycle and transportation systems. The HTR-Proteus experiments, conducted at the Paul Scherrer Institute, provide high-fidelity data for TRISO-fueled, graphite-moderated pebble bed reactors with high neutron leakage—conditions relevant to HALEU transport scenarios. This study focuses on Cores 4.2 and 4.3 of the HTR-Proteus benchmark, analyzing key sources of uncertainty including pebble packing, TRISO particle positioning, and core height. Using Project Chrono for realistic pebble geometries and Serpent, SHIFT, and MCNP for neutronics simulations, the study quantifies the impact of these uncertainties on the effective multiplication factor (keff). Results show that a sample size of 110 pebble configurations is sufficient to converge keff, with ±30 pcm uncertainty due to packing randomness. TRISO positioning and core height variations also significantly influence keff, highlighting the importance of detailed modeling in V&V efforts. The benchmark serves as a valuable test case for validating the Griffin reactor physics code and improving confidence in HALEU system simulations.
73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
A Variational Autoencoder Model Toward Molecular Structure Representation Learning of Fuels
Here, in this work, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE)-based data-driven modeling framework is developed with the overarching goal of enabling fuel design. The VAE model is trained on a large dataset with several chemical species to learn a compressed latent space molecular representation. Chemical structure in the form of Simplified Molecular Input Line Entry System (SMILES) string is fed as input, encoded into the VAE latent space, and decoded back to the SMILES string using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Complexities of the VAE training loss function are thoroughly examined by varying the weightage (beta (𝜷) parameter) of the latent space regularization term, thereby assessing the balance between reconstruction accuracy and validity, and focusing on both accurate molecular structure reconstruction and latent space consistency. Two different strategies for 𝜷 variation are evaluated: linear annealing and cyclic annealing. In addition, the impact of total correlation adjustment and hierarchical priors is also studied with regard to the balance between reconstruction fidelity and latent space regularization, and potential issues such as posterior collapse, over-regularization, and poor disentanglement of latent variables. Overall, the best performance of the model is achieved with hierarchical priors and incrementally increasing 𝜷 from 0 to a threshold value of 0.25 over 75 epochs. The generative VAE model can be readily coupled with Quantitative Structure–Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis to develop an integrated end-to-end framework for fuel-property prediction and molecular design of novel promising fuels.
fuel design↗
Machine Learning Driven Sensitivity Analysis of E3SM Land Model Parameters for Wetland Methane Emissions
Methane (CH 4 ) is globally the second most critical greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, contributing to 16%–25% of the observed atmospheric warming. Wetlands are the primary natural source of methane emissions globally. However, wetland methane emission estimates from biogeochemistry models contain considerable uncertainty. One of the main sources of this uncertainty arises from the numerous uncertain model parameters within various physical, biological, and chemical processes that influence methane production, oxidation, and transport. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can help identify critical parameters for methane emission and achieve reduced biases and uncertainties in future projections. This study performs SA for 19 selected parameters responsible for critical biogeochemical processes in the methane module of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). The impact of these parameters on various CH 4 fluxes is examined at 14 FLUXNET- CH 4 sites with diverse vegetation types. Given the extensive number of model simulations needed for global variance-based SA, we employ a machine learning (ML) algorithm to emulate the complex behavior of ELM methane biogeochemistry. We found that parameters linked to CH 4 production and diffusion generally present the highest sensitivities despite apparent seasonal variation. Comparing simulated emissions from perturbed parameter sets against FLUXNET-CH 4 observations revealed that better performances can be achieved at each site compared to the default parameter values. This presents a scope for further improving simulated emissions using parameter calibration with advanced optimization techniques.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Modeling of fluid injection-induced fault reactivation using coupled fluid flow and mechanical interface model
The present study is aimed at developing a numerical model to reproduce coupled hydro-mechanical processes associated with fault reactivation by fluid injection in low permeability rock, as part of the DECOVALEX-2019 project Task B. We proposed a modeling approach for simulating the processes using the TOUGH-FLAC simulator, and modeled a fault reactivation experiment conducted at Mont Terri Rock Laboratory in Switzerland. The first step of the study involved benchmark calculations considering a simplified fault plane and geometry. Fluid flow along a fault was modeled using elements of aperture-sized thickness on the basis of Darcy's law and the cubic law in TOUGH2, whereas the mechanical behavior of a single fault was represented by zero-thickness interface elements in FLAC3D upon which a slip and/or separation is allowed. A methodology to connect a TOUGH2 volume element to a FLAC3D interface element was developed for handling the hydro-mechanical interactions on the fault during fluid injection. Two different fault models for describing the evolutions of hydraulic aperture by elastic fracture opening and failure-induced aperture increase were considered in the benchmark calculations. In the coupling process, the changes in geometrical features and hydrological properties induced by mechanical deformation were continuously updated. The transient responses of the fault and host rock to stepwise pressurization were examined during the simulation. The hydro-mechanical behavior, including the injection flow rate, pressure distribution around the borehole, stress conditions, and displacements in normal and shear directions were monitored in the surrounding rock and along the fault. The results of benchmark calculations suggest that the developed model reasonably represents the hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault and the surrounding rock. This modeling approach was applied to the fault reactivation experiment of the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. In this interpretive modeling, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of input parameters regarding in situ stress and fault properties on the hydro-mechanical responses of the fault to water injection. Then, an optimal parameter set to reproduce the field experiment results was chosen by trial-and-error. The injection flow rate and pressure response during fault reactivation closely matched those obtained at the site, which indicates the capability of the model to appropriately capture the progressive pathway evolution during fault reactivation tests at the site. Finally, the anchor displacements were overestimated by the model, but a fair agreement was obtained in terms of the order of magnitude and the variation tendency.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Generalizability analysis of tool condition monitoring ensemble machine learning models
Tool condition monitoring (TCM) is an essential research area for the optimization and automation of metal machining processes, and could help manufacturers reduce costs, production time, machine downtime, energy use, and part scrappage. However, TCM systems developed in prior studies have struggled to reach the high level of generalizability which is necessary for industrial applications. This study addresses TCM system generalizability to new machining conditions, how variations in machining and environmental conditions may be used to improve model generalizability, and ensemble machine learning techniques for TCM. Further, milling tool life experiments were conducted using various machining conditions, and the processes' sound, spindle power, and axial load signals were collected. Different machine learning models were evaluated for the prediction of tool wear levels, including four individual models and five ensemble models. Changes in cutting speed were found to display a large effect on model performance, while the chip load showed some effect, and the feed rate had little effect. A simulated noise data augmentation technique for model improvement is applied within TCM for the first time, and resulted in increased model generalizability and reduced overfitting. Across several performance metrics the extremely randomized trees ensemble machine learning model generally performed the best for this application, achieving a leave-one-group-out cross validation accuracy score of 92.4 %, a 10-fold cross validation score of 98.9 %, and an averaged accuracy across 11 generalizability tests of 87.3 %.
42 ENGINEERING↗