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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

In-silico quantification of intersubject variability on aerosol deposition in the oral airway

The extrathoracic oral airway I s not only a major mechanical barrier for pharmaceutical aerosols to reach the lung but also a major source of variability in lung deposition. Using computational fluid dynamics, deposition of 1-30 µm particles was predicted in 11 CT-based models of the oral airways of adults (7 healthy subjects and 4 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). Simulations were performed for mouth breathing during both inspiration and expiration at two steady-state flow rates representative of resting/light activity (18 L/min) and of that typically used during aerosol inhalation from a dry powder inhaler (45 L/min). For each subject, oral deposition increased with increasing particle size and flow rate. When averaged over all subjects, there was no significant difference in oral deposition efficiency between inspiration and expiration, unlike subregional deposition that show significantly different patterns between the two breathing phases. Consistent with previous in-vitro inspiratory studies, our data showed a large intersubject variability in oral deposition. These results highlight the need for incorporating morphological variation of the upper airway in predictive models of aerosol deposition for accurate predictions of particle dosimetry in the intrathoracic region of the lung.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), Inertial impac↗

The Influence of Demographic Variables on the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMA)

Building on our prior research with a national survey sample of 5385 US participants, the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM) was built upon two factor analyses. This exploratory study extends the PRAM framework using the Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model Multigroup Analyses (PRAMMA) to examine how 16 demographic variables influence and interact with the acceptance of Pooled Rideshare (PR), filling a gap in understanding user segmentation and personalization. Using a national sample of 5385 US participants, this methodological approach allowed for the evaluation of how PRAM variables such as safety, privacy, service experience, and environmental impact vary across diverse groups, including gender, generation, driver’s license, rideshare experience, education level, employment status, household size, number of children, income, vehicle ownership, and typical commuting practices. Factors such as convenience, comfort, and passenger safety did not show significant differences across the moderators, suggesting their universal importance across all demographics. Furthermore, geographical differences did not significantly impact the relationships within the model, suggesting consistent relationships across different regions. The findings highlight the need to move beyond a “one size fits all” approach, demonstrating that tailored strategies may be crucial for enhancing the adoption and satisfaction of PR services among various demographic groups. The analyses provide valuable insight for policymakers and rideshare companies looking to optimize their services and increase user engagement in PR.

moderator↗

Multi-Epoch Optical Spectroscopy Variability of the Changing-Look AGN Mrk 883

In this work, we present multi-epoch optical spectra of the Seyfert 1.9 galaxy Mrk 883. Data were obtained with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the MEGARA Integral Field Unit mode, archival data from the SDSS-IV MaNGA Survey and the SDSS-I Legacy Survey, and new spectroscopic observations obtained at San Pedro Mártir Observatory. We report the appearance of the broad component of Hβ emission line, showing a maximum FWHM ∼ 5927 ± 481 km s−1 in the MaNGA spectra, finding evidence for a change from Seyfert 1.9 (23 June 2003) to Seyfert 1.8 (18 May 2018). The observed changing-look variation from Sy1.9 to Sy1.8 has a timescale Δt ∼15 y. In addition, we observe profile and flux broad emission line variability from 2018 to 2023, and a wind component in [OIII]5007 Å, with a maximum FWHM = 1758 ± 178 km s−1, detected on 15 April 2023. In all epochs, variability of the broad lines was found to be disconnected from the optical continuum emission, which shows little or no variations. These results suggest that an ionized-driven wind in the polar direction could be a possible scenario to explain the observed changing-look variations.

Benítez, Erika (ORCID:0000000310182613)↗

Assessment of Variability of the TEC in the Equatorial Anomaly Region with a Focus over Africa Using Rz and F10.7 as Input Drivers

This paper mainly intends to address the assessment of altitudinal variability of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) extracted from the Global Positioning System (GPS), the new versions of the International Reference Ionosphere Extended to the Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas 2017), and a quick-run ionospheric electron density (NeQuick 2) model in the equatorial anomaly region with a focus over Africa. This is manipulated employing the daily sunspot number (Rz) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) indices as the driver for the models during 2013–2016. The results show that the GPS-derived VTEC values are generally smaller than the modeled VTEC (IRI-Plas 2017 and NeQuick 2 VTEC) values, especially while utilizing the models with the Rz index. The modeled VTEC values are closer to the GPS VTEC values while using the models with the F10.7 index than Rz. The VTEC values obtained while using both models with the F10.7 index tend to increase while traversing from the high to the low solar activity years (especially in the March equinox and December solstice). The top-side ionospheric and plasmaspheric layers contribute the highest and lowest values to the total VTEC. Hence, the signal propagation through the ionosphere is largely affected when the signal crosses the top-side layer. Unlike other layers, due to the limited impact of the EUV on the ionization of neutral particles in the plasmasphere, the VTEC in the plasmaspheric layer (ECpl) shows smooth pattern with similar hourly values. Moreover, the IRI-Plas 2017 model does not effectively respond to the geomagnetic storm time variability of the VTEC with altitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Short-period Variability in the Globular Cluster NGC 419 and the SMC Field

Delta Scuti (δ Sct) stars have been extensively studied in our Galaxy but far less in extragalactic systems. Here we study the population of δ Sct variables in NGC 419, an intermediate-age globular cluster of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC), using g, r, and i Gemini-S/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS) time-series observations. Our goal is to study the role of such variables in the cluster extended main-sequence turnoff (MSTO). We report the discovery of 54 δ Sct stars and three eclipsing binaries in the NGC 419 field. We find only a handful of the δ Sct stars at the MSTO of NGC 419, while the majority are fainter, indicating that the cluster is younger (≲1.2 Gyr) than previously thought. Considering their radial distribution, we identify only six δ Sct stars as probable members of NGC 419, while the 48 remaining are likely δ Sct stars of the SMC field. Cluster δ Sct stars appear close to the red edge of the MSTO, supporting the idea that the extended MSTO has its origin in an age spread. The 48 field δ Sct stars represent the largest detection of δ Sct stars made in the SMC. The period distribution of these newly detected δ Sct stars (0.04 day ≲ P ≲ 0.15 day) is similar to that detected in other systems. The amplitude distribution (0.05 mag ≲ Δr ≲ 0.60 mag) is likely biased because of the lack of low-amplitude stars. We finally use the δ Sct stars to calculate distances using different period–luminosity relations. The average distance moduli obtained are 18.76 ± 0.14 mag for NGC 419 and 18.86 ± 0.11 mag for the SMC field, which agree with previous measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cataclysmic Variables in the Second Year of the Zwicky Transient Facility

Using a filter in the GROWTH Marshal based on color and the amplitude and timescale of variability, we have identified 372 objects as known or candidate cataclysmic variables (CVs) during the second year of the operation of the Zwicky Transient Facility. From the available difference imaging data, we found that 93 are previously confirmed CVs and 279 are strong candidates. Spectra of four of the candidates confirm them as CVs by the presence of Balmer emission lines, while one of the four has prominent He ii lines indicative of containing a magnetic white dwarf. Gaia EDR3 parallaxes are available for 154 of these systems, resulting in distances from 108–2096 pc and absolute magnitudes in the range of 7.5–15.0, with the largest number of candidates between 10.5 and 12.5. The total numbers are 21% higher than from the previous year of the survey with a greater number of distances available but a smaller percentage of systems close to the Galactic plane. Comparison of these findings with a machine-learning method of searching all the light curves reveals large differences in each data set related to the parameters involved in the search process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Resolving the Circumstellar Environment of the Galactic B[e] Supergiant Star MWC 137.II. Nebular Kinematics and Stellar Variability

The Galactic B[e] supergiant MWC 137 is surrounded by a large-scale optical nebula. To shed light on the physical conditions and kinematics of the nebula, we analyze the optical forbidden emission lines [N ii] λ λ 6548,6583 and [S ii] λ λ 6716,6731 in long-slit spectra taken with ALFOSC at the Nordic Optical Telescope. The radial velocities display a complex behavior but, in general, the northern nebular features are predominantly approaching while the southern ones are mostly receding. The electron density shows strong variations across the nebula with values spreading from about zero to ~800 cm{sup -3}. Higher densities are found closer to MWC 137 and in regions of intense emission, whereas in regions with high radial velocities the density decreases significantly. We also observe the entire nebula in the two [S ii] lines with the scanning Fabry–Perot interferometer attached to the 6 m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory. These data reveal a new bow-shaped feature at P.A. = 225°–245° and a distance 80" from MWC 137. A new Hα image has been taken with the Danish 1.54 m telescope on La Silla. No expansion or changes in the nebular morphology appear within 18.1 yr. We derive a mass of 37{sub -5}{sup +9} M{sub ⊙} and an age of 4.7 ± 0.8 Myr for MWC 137. Furthermore, we detect a period of 1.93 d in the time series photometry collected with the TESS satellite, which could suggest stellar pulsations. Other, low-frequency variability is seen as well. Whether these signals are caused by internal gravity waves in the early-type star or by variability in the wind and circumstellar matter currently cannot be distinguished.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

The Great Markarian 421 Flare of 2010 February: Multiwavelength Variability and Correlation Studies

We report on variability and correlation studies using multiwavelength observations of the blazar Mrk 421 during the month of February, 2010 when an extraordinary flare reaching a level of ~27 Crab Units above 1 TeV was measured in very-highenergy (VHE) γ-rays with the VERITAS observatory. This is the highest flux state for Mrk 421 ever observed in VHE γ-rays. Data are analyzed from a coordinated campaign across multiple instruments including VHE γ-ray (VERITAS, MAGIC), high-energy (HE) γ-ray (Fermi-LAT), X-ray (Swift, RXTE, MAXI), optical (including the GASP-WEBT collaboration and polarization data) and radio (Mets¨ahovi, OVRO, UMRAO). Light curves are produced spanning multiple days before and after the peak of the VHE flare, including over several flare ‘decline’ epochs. The main flare statistics allow 2-minute time bins to be constructed in both the VHE and optical bands enabling a cross-correlation analysis that shows evidence for an optical lag of ~25–55 minutes, the first time-lagged correlation between these bands reported on such short timescales. Limits on the Doppler factor (δ & 33) and the size of the emission region (δ -1RB . 3.8 × 10 13 cm) are obtained from the fast variability observed by VERITAS during the main flare. Analysis of 10-minute-binned VHE and X-ray data over the decline epochs shows an extraordinary range of behavior in the flux-flux relationship: from linear to quadratic to lack of correlation to anti-correlation. Taken together, these detailed observations of an unprecedented flare seen in Mrk 421 are difficult to explain by the classic single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variability and Spectral Characteristics of Three Flaring Gamma-Ray Quasars Observed by VERITAS and Fermi-LAT

Flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) are the most luminous blazars at GeV energies but only rarely emit detectable fluxes of TeV gamma rays, typically during bright GeV flares. We explore the gamma-ray variability and spectral characteristics of three FSRQs that have been observed at GeV and TeV energies by Fermi-LAT and VERITAS, making use of almost 100 hr of VERITAS observations spread over 10 yr: 3C 279, PKS 1222+216, and Ton 599. We explain the GeV flux distributions of the sources in terms of a model derived from a stochastic differential equation describing fluctuations in the magnetic field in the accretion disk and estimate the timescales of magnetic flux accumulation and stochastic instabilities in their accretion disks. We identify distinct flares using a procedure based on Bayesian blocks and analyze their daily and subdaily variability and gamma-ray energy spectra. Using observations from VERITAS, as well as Fermi, Swift, and the Steward Observatory, we model the broadband spectral energy distributions of PKS 1222+216 and Ton 599 during very high energy (VHE)–detected flares in 2014 and 2017, respectively, strongly constraining the jet Doppler factors and gamma-ray emission region locations during these events. Finally, we place theoretical constraints on the potential production of PeV-scale neutrinos during these VHE flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

New Clues to the Evolution of Dwarf Carbon Stars From Their Variability and X-Ray Emission

As main-sequence stars with C > O, dwarf carbon (dC) stars are never born alone but inherit carbon-enriched material from a former asymptotic giant branch (AGB) companion. In contrast to M dwarfs in post-mass-transfer binaries, C 2 and/or CN molecular bands allow dCs to be identified with modest-resolution optical spectroscopy, even after the AGB remnant has cooled beyond detectability. Accretion of substantial material from the AGB stars should spin up the dCs, potentially causing a rejuvenation of activity detectable in X-rays. Indeed, a few dozen dCs have recently been found to have photometric variability with periods under a day. However, most of those are likely post-common-envelope binaries, spin–orbit locked by tidal forces, rather than solely spun-up by accretion. Here, we study the X-ray properties of a sample of the five nearest-known dCs with Chandra. Two are detected in X-rays, the only two for which we also detected short-period photometric variability. We suggest that the coronal activity detected so far in dCs is attributable to rapid rotation due to tidal locking in short binary orbits after a common-envelope phase, late in the thermally pulsing (TP) phase of the former C-AGB primary (TP-AGB).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable Active Galactic Nuclei in the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey

We searched the northern hemisphere fields of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer Time Domain Survey for galaxies with UV variability indicative of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We identified 48 high-probability candidate AGNs from a parent sample of 1819 galaxies in the NASA Sloan Atlas catalog. We further characterized these systems using optical spectroscopic diagnostics, Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer IR color selection criteria, and spectral energy distribution modeling. Of the 48 candidates, eight were identified as AGNs from optical emission lines, two were identified by their IR colors, and 28 were identified through spectral energy decomposition. Observational biases of each selection method are discussed in connecting these AGN subsamples to another. By selecting AGNs based on UV variability, we also identified six low-mass AGN candidates, all of which would have been missed by spectroscopic selection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-Ray Properties of Optically Variable Low-mass AGN Candidates

We present an X-ray analysis of 14 nearby (z < 0.044) active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in low-mass galaxies (M* ≲ 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ ) selected based on their optical variability. Comparing and contrasting different AGN selection techniques in low-mass galaxies is essential for obtaining an accurate estimate of the active fraction in this regime. We use both new and archival observations from the Chandra X-ray Observatory to search for X-ray point sources consistent with AGNs. Four objects have detected nuclear X-ray emission with luminosities ranging from L 0.5-7 ≈ 3 × 10 40 to 9 × 10 42 erg s -1 with two more marginal detections. All of the detected galaxies have luminosities exceeding those anticipated from X-ray binaries, and all sources are nuclear, suggesting the X-ray emission in most sources is due to an AGN. These observations demonstrate the success of variability at identifying AGNs in low-mass galaxies. We also explore emission-line diagnostics and discuss the differences in the results of these methods for AGN selection, in particular regarding low-mass and low-metallicity systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Variable X-Ray Reverberation in the Rapidly Accreting Active Galactic Nucleus Ark 564: The Response of the Soft Excess to the Changing Geometry of the Inner Accretion Flow

X-ray reverberation, which exploits the time delays between variability in different energy bands as a function of Fourier frequency, probes the structure of the inner accretion disks and X-ray coronae of active galactic nuclei. We present a systematic X-ray spectroscopic and reverberation study of the high-Eddington-ratio narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxy Ark 564, using over 900 ks of XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations spanning 13 yr. The time-averaged spectra can be well described by a model consisting of a coronal continuum, relativistic disk reflection, warm Comptonization, and three warm absorbers. Leveraging the high X-ray brightness of Ark 564, we are able to resolve the time evolution of the spectra and contemporaneous reverberation lags. The soft-band lag relative to the continuum increases with the X-ray flux, while Fe Kα lags are detected in only a subset of epochs and do not correlate with soft lags. Models based on a lamppost corona and reflection from a standard thin disk can broadly reproduce the observed lag-energy spectra of low-flux epochs; however, additional reverberation from the warm Comptonized atmosphere is required to explain the soft lags observed in high-flux epochs. A vertically puffed-up inner disk and a variable, vertically extended corona can better explain the observed evolution of the lags and covariance spectra. Our study underscores the importance of multiepoch, multiband analyses for a comprehensive understanding the inner accretion disk and corona.

Active galactic nuclei↗

A New Member of the Fast and Furious Family: A Relativistic and Time-variable UV Outflow in a Luminous Quasar

We report the fastest quasar outflow first detected in the ultraviolet, via variable C IV and Si IV absorption at outflow velocities −77,000 km s −1 to at least −90,000 km s −1 , in the radio-quiet quasar SDSS J231854.31+243954.2 (J2318). J2318 is a weak-lined quasar in the rest-frame ultraviolet, but Gemini GNIRS spectroscopy reveals an Hα redshift of z = 2.6781 ± 0.0004. A 20 yr photometric time series shows peak-to-peak variability of 0.5 mag in the g band. The C IV outflow strengthened monotonically over three epochs spanning ∼2.2 rest-frame years. The existence of such a high-velocity outflow implies that models of quasar outflows must be able to either accelerate gas to 0.3c while still preserving C IV and Si IV ions, or enable the formation of C IV and Si IV ions in gas, which has been accelerated to 0.3c. Virial estimates reveal a black-hole mass of 1.65 × 10 9 M ⊙ , which leads to an Eddington luminosity and Eddington ratio of 2.4 × 10 47 erg s −1 and 0.45, respectively. Using very conservative assumptions, the UV-absorbing outflow alone has an estimated mass loss of >0.82 M ⊙ yr −1 and a kinetic luminosity ratio L kin /L bol ≥ 0.75%. The lower limit is just above the threshold usually cited for significant feedback on the host galaxy. Comparison to PDS 456, the only other known quasar with a UV-absorbing outflow at 0.3c, suggests that the true $\dot{M}$ and Lkin/Lbol could be up to 2 orders of magnitude larger.

Seaton, Lucas M. [York University] (ORCID:00090006↗

Fire–precipitation interactions amplify the quasi-biennial variability in fires over southern Mexico and Central America

Fires have great ecological, social, and economic impact. However, fire prediction and management remain challenges due to a limited understanding of their roles in the Earth system. Fires over southern Mexico and Central America (SMCA) are a good example of this, greatly impacting local air quality and regional climate. Here we report that the spring peak (April–May) of fire activities in this region has a distinct quasi-biennial signal based on multiple satellite datasets measuring different fire characteristics. The variability is initially driven by quasi-biennial variations in precipitation. Composite analysis indicates that strong fire years correspond to suppressed ascending motion and weakened precipitation over the SMCA. The anomalous precipitation over the SMCA is further found to be mostly related to the East Pacific–North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern 2 months prior to the fire season. The positive phase of the EP-NP leads to enhanced precipitation over the eastern US but suppressed precipitation over the SMCA, similar to the spatial pattern of precipitation differences between strong and weak fire years. Meanwhile, the quasi-biennial signals in precipitation and fires appear to be amplified by their interactions through a positive feedback loop at short timescales. Model simulations show that in strong fire years, more aerosol particles are released and transported downstream over the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern US, where suspended light-absorbing aerosols warm the atmosphere and cause the ascending motion of the air aloft. Subsequently, a compensating downward motion is formed over the region of the fire source and ultimately suppresses precipitation and intensifies fires. Statistical analysis shows the different durations of the two-way interaction, where the fire suppression effect of precipitation lasts for more than 20 d, while fire leads to a decrease in precipitation at shorter timescales (3–5 d). This study demonstrates the importance of fire–climate interactions in shaping the fire activities on an interannual scale and highlights how precipitation–fire interactions at short timescales contribute to the interannual variability in both fire and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗

Technical descriptions of the experimental dynamical downscaling simulations over North America by the CAM–MPAS variable-resolution model

Abstract. Comprehensive assessment of climate datasets is important for communicating model projections and associated uncertainties to stakeholders. Uncertainties can arise not only from assumptions and biases within the model but also from external factors such as computational constraint and data processing. To understand sources of uncertainties in global variable-resolution (VR) dynamical downscaling, we produced a regional climate dataset using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS; dynamical core version 4.0) coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM; version 5.4), which we refer to as CAM–MPAS hereafter. This document provides technical details of the model configuration, simulations, computational requirements, post-processing, and data archive of the experimental CAM–MPAS downscaling data. The CAM–MPAS model is configured with VR meshes featuring higher resolutions over North America as well as quasi-uniform-resolution meshes across the globe. The dataset includes multiple uniform- (240 and 120 km) and variable-resolution (50–200, 25–100, and 12–46 km) simulations for both the present-day (1990–2010) and future (2080–2100) periods, closely following the protocol of the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. A deviation from the protocol is the pseudo-warming experiment for the future period, using the ocean boundary conditions produced by adding the sea surface temperature and sea-ice changes from the low-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to the present-day ocean state from a reanalysis product. Some unique aspects of global VR models are evaluated to provide background knowledge to data users and to explore good practices for modelers who use VR models for regional downscaling. In the coarse-resolution domain, strong resolution sensitivity of the hydrological cycles exists over the tropics but does not appear to affect the midlatitude circulations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the downscaling target of North America. The pseudo-warming experiment leads to similar responses of large-scale circulations to the imposed radiative and boundary forcings in the CAM–MPAS and MPI-ESM-LR models, but their climatological states in the historical period differ over various regions, including North America. Such differences are carried to the future period, suggesting the importance of the base state climatology. Within the refined domain, precipitation statistics improve with higher resolutions, and such statistical inference is verified to be negligibly influenced by horizontal remapping during post-processing. Limited (≈50 % slower) throughput of the current code is found on a recent many-core/wide-vector high-performance computing system, which limits the lengths of the 12–46 km simulations and indirectly affects sampling uncertainty. Our experience shows that global and technical aspects of the VR downscaling framework require further investigations to reduce uncertainties for regional climate projection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗